中国上市公司失败：特征、影响因素及其特殊性
|
摘要
我国的证券市场已经走过了18年的风雨历程,市场规模迅速扩大。随着中国经济逐步走向市场化,证券市场逐渐成为中国经济资源市场化配置的重要平台。而上市公司作为我国企业中的特殊群体和证券市场的基石,随着证券市场的建立、发展与完善,日益成为中国经济的重要组成部分。但是,随着市场竞争的日趋激烈,加上各种内外部因素的不可准确预见性,我国的上市公司相继出现了业绩下滑、运作质量低下等问题,公司失败的风险成为客观存在,中国证券市场上的失败现象不断出现,并日益突出。截止到2008年6月底,沪深A股“资不抵债”的上市公司就有44家;到2008年12月31日,沪深两地共出现153家ST或*ST公司,96家三板交易公司;2007-2008年还有25家上市公司的股票暂停上市,没有恢复上市资格。
上市公司经营的成功与失败表现直接影响了证券市场的活力。在当前上市公司业绩不断下滑、经营质量不断退化、股价指数上升缺乏坚实的内在基础、投资者对市场信心不足的情况下,我们更加关心到底哪些因素影响了上市公司的经营管理与业绩表现,甚至导致公司失败?产生影响的过程怎样?这些都是在现实观察之余进行思索的问题,也就成了本文要探讨的主要话题。尤其是自1929年的世界性经济危机以来,2007-2008年再一次的席卷全球的空前严重的金融危机已经深深影响到了中国,转轨中的中国经济、刚刚起步的中国证券市场和上市公司正在接受并经历着一场前所未有的危机考验。虽然现在全球救市计划不断推出,我国也推出了4万亿的救市计划,但随着金融危机影响加剧,外部环境的不断恶化,而扩大内需措施很难立竿见影的情况下,很多上市公司业绩大幅下滑,许多公司正在逐步选择停产或减产的方式以期度过难关。在严重的金融危机的影响下,更加严重的上市公司失败现象已经初露端倪。因此,对上市公司失败问题进行研究,更成了基于当前现实的迫切要求。通过这方面的研究,可以促使上市公司合理地保存和利用企业必须的资源,避免或减少损失,为今后的发展和成功经营打下基础,这也将有利于投资者以及其他利益相关者正确判断和评价我国上市公司的真实情况,防范失败风险。当然,作为前车之鉴和他山之石,这也会给中国的其他新兴企业提供有益的借鉴意义。
本文的研究采用了理论分析和实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合以及国际经验和中国实际案例分析相结合等研究方法,并按照以下篇章结构和思路进行。
第一章:导论。主要阐述了论文的选题及其意义,基本假设和研究方法,研究思路与框架安排等。
第二章:文献综述:企业失败的理论研究。本章主要从企业失败定义、企业失败的不同理论解释以及企业失败的影响因素等方面对企业失败理论进行了全面的综述,并进行了综合评价与分析。
第三章,现象描述:中国上市公司失败的特征分析。本章首先对中国上市公司失败进行界定,接着从行业分布、地区分布、资产规模分布、时间分布、存续时间分布、失败路径及财务特征等方面对我国上市公司失败的特征性表现进行了分析,并给出风险警示结论。
第四章,影响上市公司失败的外部因素分析。本章在区分了一般影响因素和特殊影响因素的前提下,对影响上市公司失败的外部因素进行了理论描述,并对相关因素的影响进行了实证检验与分析。
第五章,影响上市公司失败的内部因素分析。本章同样在区分了一般影响因素和特殊影响因素的前提下,对影响上市公司失败的内部因素进行了理论描述,在此基础上,从财务角度对上市公司失败识别进行了实证研究,从公司治理角度对上市公司失败进行了实证检验和分析。
第六章,上市公司失败特殊性产生的根源:上市公司价值的过度高估。本章首先对上市公司资源价值的形成进行了经济学分析,在此基础上提出上市公司失败特殊性产生的根源就在于对上市公司价值的过度高估,并对上市公司价值过度高估的原因进行了理论分析。
第七章,上市公司失败的综合治理对策。本章主要从政府和上市公司两个层面提出了针对上市公司失败的综合治理对策。
第八章,结论。本章总结了本文研究得出的主要结论,说明了本文的创新点、不足之处及后续研究设想。
本文研究的最大特点是将所有研究置于中国特定的政策与制度背景下,研究上市公司失败的特征表现及其影响因素,并对中国上市公司失败的特殊问题及其根源做了深入剖析。与国内其他类似研究相比,本文的研究更为全面、细致和深入。创新性的结论具体表现在以下几个方面:
第一,总结并强调了中国上市公司失败特征的特殊性。本文在从行业、地区、资产规模、上市时间、存续时间、失败路径等方面总结了上市公司失败的特征性表现的基础上,格外强调了上市公司失败特征的特殊性。(1)资不抵债的上市公司未能进入破产程序。虽然目前有许多家上市公司实际已经处于资不抵债状态,但尚无一家上市公司进入破产程序。(2)目前失败的上市公司多分布于1997年以前上市的公司中,这是我国证券市场的一个特殊和特定现象,这与我国证券市场初期建立的目的就是为了国有企业解决资金、体制困难密切相关。(3)我国股市特殊的“一上市就变脸”的现象时有发生,更多的上市公司在上市4年之后、10年之前发生失败现象,许多上市公司虽然携带着发行股票募集的大量资金,甚至拥有大发展的“宏伟计划”,其失败却发生在“上市初创期”和“雄心勃勃发展期”,大量的上市公司却并没有“借上市与资金的东风”快速发展,却在“圈钱”结束后较短时间内进入了连续亏损甚至保壳的失败境地。本文认为,上述现象的出现,资金瓶颈不再是其主要原因,而应该从企业错误的融资理念与偏好以及证券市场的制度性缺陷方面寻找解释。
第二,总结了影响上市公司失败的外部因素的特殊性。从外部环境来看,上市公司的生产经营除了要受到经济周期波动、宏观政策与产业结构调整、政府治理与法治水平、市场运行与市场竞争等因素的影响以外,更特别的是,由于其具有上市交易和直接融资资格,因此政府对其管理也具有了区别于非上市公司的制度要求。而基于中国国情的制度性缺陷在上市公司的失败过程中就有了更加显著的影响,成为中国上市公司失败区别于非上市公司的独特影响因素。这些制度性缺陷包括初期建立证券市场的定位不当,市场准入、退出与监管规则不规范,政府意志的行政贯彻以及政府对于自身利益和政绩的过多考虑等等。制度性风险给上市公司埋下了发生失败的祸根。
第三,总结了影响上市公司失败的内部因素的特殊性。一般企业失败的内因,可以从企业核心竞争力、公司治理与决策、主业与多元化经营、资本结构与现金流量以及企业诚信等方面来寻找到答案;而通过分析中国上市公司的失败现象来看,非常特殊的是,由于大股东掏空行为导致上市公司失败的案例大量存在,以“掏空行为”为典型特征的大股东对上市公司的不当利用现象极为普遍,这也成为了中国上市公司与非上市公司在失败原因对比上最具有特殊性和差异性的一个关键因素。这是由于证券市场制度性缺陷的存在(如证券市场定位、资产剥离式的改制模式、上市准入制度、退出制度以及监管问题的存在),造就了上市公司与控股股东和地方政府之间特殊的“血脉关系”与特殊的关系处理方式,也正是这一关系,使得控股股东和地方政府为了保持母公司的持续经营或当地的经济与社会发展,天然地具备从上市公司转移资源的“掏空”动机。
第四,本文认为,上市公司失败特殊性产生的根源,就在于对上市公司价值的过度高估。在我国,由于具备了上市资格,上市公司的资源价值与非上市公司相比,就有了超值的内容,包括资本放大效应与低成本融资优势、新闻和形象宣传优势、政策优惠以及企业并购重组优势等等。然而,在我国证券市场上,这些价值却被过度高估了,从而引发了大量对上市公司资源的争夺和不当利用现象,甚至出现了滥用的问题,而这些行为的膨胀,就大大加快了上市公司失败的速度。在现阶段,上市公司价值过度高估产生的原因主要在于:上市资源的收益性形成了对上市公司资源的需求,资本市场定位不当及资格管制导致了上市资源短缺,造成了上市资源供应不足,而上市公司的股权融资偏好、政府的政绩需求以及市场管制漏洞下放大的“隧道效应”,则加剧了上市资源供不应求的紧张局面,资源争夺愈演愈烈,最终形成了对上市公司价值的过度高估,而这些行为又加剧了上市公司失败现象的产生。
第五,在提出的一系列综合治理上市公司失败的对策当中,针对上市公司失败的特殊性,认为政府不仅要准确调整证券市场定位,有效抑制经济剧烈波动,更要注重完善法律和监管,提高不当利用上市公司资源的成本,加大处罚力度,推动上市公司及其控股股东加强自我规范,最终实现资源的有效配置。
China's securities market has gone through 18 years, and the scale of the market is rapidly expanded. As China's economy has been moving towards market-oriented, the securities market has gradually become an important platform for Market allocation of economic resources. With the securities market's construction, development and improvement, and being a special cluster of Chinese companies and the foundation of the securities market, listed companies have achieved a substantial development and increasingly become an important part of China's economy. However, with the increasingly fierce market competition, coupled with various internal and external factors that can not be accurately predicted, China's listed companies have emerged a series of problems such as performance decline and the operation of low-quality. The risk of companies' failures has become an objective existence and increasingly prominent. By the end of June 2008, in the Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares, "insolvent" has 44 listed companies; And by the end of December 31, 2008, in Shanghai and Shenzhen, there were 153 ST or * ST companies, and 96 companies in third board market; during 2007 to 2008, there were also 25 listed companies to be suspended and not to restore listed qualifications.
Listed companies' success or failure in operating performance has a direct impact on the vitality of the stock market. At current, listed companies have been falling and suffers from operating quality degradation, the lack of a solid internal foundation for the rising of share price index, investors lack of confidence on the market, so we are more concerned about what are the factors that affected the operation and management of listed companies, and even what caused the failure of the companies? How does it happen? The exploration of these questions which are observed in reality, apart from the question to ponder, has become the main topic of this article. Especially since the worldwide economic crisis in 1929 ,an unprecedented serious financial crisis between 2007and 2008 has swept the globe and deeply affected the Chinese once again, Chinese economy in transition, fledgling securities market and listed companies in China are accepting and experiencing an unprecedented test of the crisis. Although the global plan to rescue market is continually introduced and our country also introduced a 4-trillion rescue package, with the effects of the financial crisis intensified, the worsening external environment, and immediate measures to expand domestic demand in difficult circumstances, a lot of the performance of listed companies have fallen sharply, and many companies discontinue or reduce their production as a selection manner to tide over their difficulties. In the circumstances of serious financial crisis, the more serious situation of listed companies has been on the horizon. Therefore, undertaking a study to the failure of listed companies, based on current reality has become an urgent requirement. Through the research in this area, listed companies can improve the conditions of the preservation and rational use of the necessary resources for future development, avoid or reduce losses, and lay the foundation for successful operation. This also will help investors and other stakeholders in our country judge and evaluate the real situation of listed companies to prevent a risk of failure. Of course, as a warning, it also provides other emerging Chinese enterprises with a useful reference.
The method used in this thesis combined theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, normal analysis and position analysis, international experience and domestic cases. This paper adopts the research thinking in the following:
Chapter I: Introduction. In this section, there are thesis topic and its significance, the basic assumptions, research methods, research ideas and framework arrangements, etc.
Chapter II: Literature review: Theoretical study on the failure of enterprises. In this chapter, this paper tries to carry out comprehensive theoretical overview, evaluation and analysis from the definition of business failure, as well as various theories to explain factors of corporate failure.
Chapter III: Phenomena description: Analysis to the characteristics of the failure of China's Listed Companies. This chapter first defines China's listed companies' failure, and then carries out analyses on their characteristics from industry distribution, geographical distribution, asset size distribution, time distribution, lasting time distribution, failure path and financial characteristics, etc, and gives the risk warning conclusion.
Chapter IV: Analysis on external factors of listed companies' failure. This chapter firstly gives the distinction between general and special influence factors, and makes a theoretical description on external factors of listed companies' failure, and then carries on the real diagnosis examination and the analysis to correlation factor's influence.
Chapter V: Analysis on internal factors of listed companies' failure. This chapter firstly also gives the distinction between general and special influence factors, and makes a theoretical description on internal factors of listed companies' failure. On the basis, this chapter carries on the real diagnosis examination to and the analysis to listed companies failure from financial and corporate governance angels.
Chapter VI: Root reasons cause the specificity of listed companies' failure: Excessively over-estimated to the value of listed companies. This chapter first carries out the economic analysis to listed companies value's formation. On this basis, it is proposed that the root reasons of listed companies failed particularity lie to be excessive overestimation to the resource value, and given theoretical analysis on the reason why it exists over-estimated to listed value.
Chapter VII: Integrated governance measures to the failure of China's listed companies. This chapter mainly proposes the governance measures from the government and listed companies themselves angles.
Chapter VIII: Conclusion. In this paper, this chapter summarizes the main conclusions, and explained this paper's research characteristic, the deficiency and the following research tentative plan.
The most important feature of this study are all the studies will be placed in a specific Chinese policies and systems background, to study the characteristics and impact factors of the failure of listed companies ,and to do a new depth on their root causes of particular problems. Comparing to other studies, the study of this article is more comprehensive, deeply and meticulously. Innovative conclusion manifests in the following areas:
First, the characteristics and specificity of China listed companies' failure are summarized and emphasized. This article emphasizes the characteristics and its specificity of the listed companies' failure on the base of profession, region, property scale, the going on market time, lasting time, failure's way and so on.(1) The listed company unable to pay debts with their assets has not been able to enter the bankrupt procedure. Although at present many listed companies have already been unable to pay debts with their assets condition actually, but there hasn't been one listed company entering the bankrupt procedure. (2) Most of the failed companies are those what were listed before 1997. This is our country stock market's special and the specific phenomenon. This is close correlation with our country stock market's initial period establishment goal for the state-owned enterprise to fund and the system difficulty. (3) The phenomenon of our country stock market's "Once listed, then change face" sometimes occurs. More listed company failed between 4 years and 10 years, although many carried massive funds which the outstanding share collects, even have big development plan. Their defeat occurs actually in initial listed time and the ambitious period of expansion. Many listed companies actually didn't take advantage of going on the market and the fund east wind to develop rapidly. They had actually entered the defeat region of losing money continuously and even guarantying the shell in the short time after circling money. This article believes that, above phenomenon's appearance, the fund bottleneck no longer is its primary cause, but should seeks the explanation from the enterprise's wrong financing idea and preferences as well as the stock market institutional flaw aspects.
Second, this paper summarized the specificity of external factors which affected the failure of listed companies. From the external environment, the impact factors of listed companies operation contain economic cycle fluctuation, macroscopic policy and industry restructure, governance and legal environment, market operation and competition, etc. What is more special, because of their qualifications of the market transaction and the direct financing, the government also had to carry out special managements to distinguish from non-listed companies. In the failure process of listed companies, the systems defects of China' national conditions have a more prominent role, and become the special factors from non-listed companies. These defects include improper location of the early stock market, nonstandard rules of market access, exit, and supervision, excessive consideration of the government will, and so on. Systematic risks lead to failure of listed companies afterwards.
Third, sum up the specificity of the internal factors that cause the failure of a listed company. Generally, the internal cause of a company can be found from the enterprise's core competitiveness, corporate governance and decision-making, the main industry and the diversification of operations, the capital structure, cash flow and the corporate integrity and so on. However, through the analysis of the failure of China's listed companies, it is very special that a large number of cases exist that the major shareholders' "hollowing out" acts have lead to the failure of listed company. The "hollowing out" actions have been a typical characteristic of the major shareholders of a listed company. The phenomenon is common that the major shareholders of a listed company improperly use a listed company, which has also become the most unique, different and key factor in contrasting China's listed companies and non-listed companies. The existence of defects of the stock market system, such as the position of the stock market, the asset stripping of restructuring mode, the system of market access and getting off and the regulatory issues, creates the "blood relationship" and the special handling relationship among a listed company, the controlling shareholders and the local governments. It is just this relationship, the controlling shareholder and local governments in order to maintain the continued operation of the parent company and the local economic and social development, natural has the" emptied "motives to transfer a listed company's resources.
Fourth, this paper argues that the uniqueness of a listed company's failure roots in the overvaluation of a listed company. In our country, comparing to non-listed companies, because of the listed qualifications, the value of a listed company's resources contains some over-value, including amplification, low-cost capital financing advantages, the advantages of information, the image of publicity, policy preferences and the advantages of mergers and acquisitions and so on. However, in China's stock market, these values were overvalued so highly that it has lead to a large number of phenomenon competing for and improper using a listed company's resources, and even abusing the resources. And the expansion of these acts has greatly accelerated the Speed of the failure of a listed company. At this stage, the reasons to the over-estimated value of a listed company are mainly due to the following. The listed resources' profitability causes the need for the resources of a listed company. The improper positioning in capital markets and control of qualifications leads to shortage of listed resources and the supply. And the shortage of listed resources supply has been increased by the preference of equity financing, the need of the government's performance and the enlarged "tunneling" under the loopholes of the market control. So the competition for resources becomes more and more intense, which finally causes the highly over-estimated value of a listed company, and just these behaves increases the phenomenon of the failure of a listed company.
Fifth, in a series of the comprehensive management measures to the failure of listed companies, and in view of the specificity of the failure of listed companies, we think that the government securities market should accurately adjust the position, control effectively the violent fluctuations in the economy. Especially, the government should improve the legal and regulatory to focus on raising the cost of improper using the resources of listed companies much higher and increasing penalties, and also promote listed companies and major shareholders to strengthen self-regulation and ultimately realize the effective allocation of resources.
上市公司经营的成功与失败表现直接影响了证券市场的活力。在当前上市公司业绩不断下滑、经营质量不断退化、股价指数上升缺乏坚实的内在基础、投资者对市场信心不足的情况下,我们更加关心到底哪些因素影响了上市公司的经营管理与业绩表现,甚至导致公司失败?产生影响的过程怎样?这些都是在现实观察之余进行思索的问题,也就成了本文要探讨的主要话题。尤其是自1929年的世界性经济危机以来,2007-2008年再一次的席卷全球的空前严重的金融危机已经深深影响到了中国,转轨中的中国经济、刚刚起步的中国证券市场和上市公司正在接受并经历着一场前所未有的危机考验。虽然现在全球救市计划不断推出,我国也推出了4万亿的救市计划,但随着金融危机影响加剧,外部环境的不断恶化,而扩大内需措施很难立竿见影的情况下,很多上市公司业绩大幅下滑,许多公司正在逐步选择停产或减产的方式以期度过难关。在严重的金融危机的影响下,更加严重的上市公司失败现象已经初露端倪。因此,对上市公司失败问题进行研究,更成了基于当前现实的迫切要求。通过这方面的研究,可以促使上市公司合理地保存和利用企业必须的资源,避免或减少损失,为今后的发展和成功经营打下基础,这也将有利于投资者以及其他利益相关者正确判断和评价我国上市公司的真实情况,防范失败风险。当然,作为前车之鉴和他山之石,这也会给中国的其他新兴企业提供有益的借鉴意义。
本文的研究采用了理论分析和实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合以及国际经验和中国实际案例分析相结合等研究方法,并按照以下篇章结构和思路进行。
第一章:导论。主要阐述了论文的选题及其意义,基本假设和研究方法,研究思路与框架安排等。
第二章:文献综述:企业失败的理论研究。本章主要从企业失败定义、企业失败的不同理论解释以及企业失败的影响因素等方面对企业失败理论进行了全面的综述,并进行了综合评价与分析。
第三章,现象描述:中国上市公司失败的特征分析。本章首先对中国上市公司失败进行界定,接着从行业分布、地区分布、资产规模分布、时间分布、存续时间分布、失败路径及财务特征等方面对我国上市公司失败的特征性表现进行了分析,并给出风险警示结论。
第四章,影响上市公司失败的外部因素分析。本章在区分了一般影响因素和特殊影响因素的前提下,对影响上市公司失败的外部因素进行了理论描述,并对相关因素的影响进行了实证检验与分析。
第五章,影响上市公司失败的内部因素分析。本章同样在区分了一般影响因素和特殊影响因素的前提下,对影响上市公司失败的内部因素进行了理论描述,在此基础上,从财务角度对上市公司失败识别进行了实证研究,从公司治理角度对上市公司失败进行了实证检验和分析。
第六章,上市公司失败特殊性产生的根源:上市公司价值的过度高估。本章首先对上市公司资源价值的形成进行了经济学分析,在此基础上提出上市公司失败特殊性产生的根源就在于对上市公司价值的过度高估,并对上市公司价值过度高估的原因进行了理论分析。
第七章,上市公司失败的综合治理对策。本章主要从政府和上市公司两个层面提出了针对上市公司失败的综合治理对策。
第八章,结论。本章总结了本文研究得出的主要结论,说明了本文的创新点、不足之处及后续研究设想。
本文研究的最大特点是将所有研究置于中国特定的政策与制度背景下,研究上市公司失败的特征表现及其影响因素,并对中国上市公司失败的特殊问题及其根源做了深入剖析。与国内其他类似研究相比,本文的研究更为全面、细致和深入。创新性的结论具体表现在以下几个方面:
第一,总结并强调了中国上市公司失败特征的特殊性。本文在从行业、地区、资产规模、上市时间、存续时间、失败路径等方面总结了上市公司失败的特征性表现的基础上,格外强调了上市公司失败特征的特殊性。(1)资不抵债的上市公司未能进入破产程序。虽然目前有许多家上市公司实际已经处于资不抵债状态,但尚无一家上市公司进入破产程序。(2)目前失败的上市公司多分布于1997年以前上市的公司中,这是我国证券市场的一个特殊和特定现象,这与我国证券市场初期建立的目的就是为了国有企业解决资金、体制困难密切相关。(3)我国股市特殊的“一上市就变脸”的现象时有发生,更多的上市公司在上市4年之后、10年之前发生失败现象,许多上市公司虽然携带着发行股票募集的大量资金,甚至拥有大发展的“宏伟计划”,其失败却发生在“上市初创期”和“雄心勃勃发展期”,大量的上市公司却并没有“借上市与资金的东风”快速发展,却在“圈钱”结束后较短时间内进入了连续亏损甚至保壳的失败境地。本文认为,上述现象的出现,资金瓶颈不再是其主要原因,而应该从企业错误的融资理念与偏好以及证券市场的制度性缺陷方面寻找解释。
第二,总结了影响上市公司失败的外部因素的特殊性。从外部环境来看,上市公司的生产经营除了要受到经济周期波动、宏观政策与产业结构调整、政府治理与法治水平、市场运行与市场竞争等因素的影响以外,更特别的是,由于其具有上市交易和直接融资资格,因此政府对其管理也具有了区别于非上市公司的制度要求。而基于中国国情的制度性缺陷在上市公司的失败过程中就有了更加显著的影响,成为中国上市公司失败区别于非上市公司的独特影响因素。这些制度性缺陷包括初期建立证券市场的定位不当,市场准入、退出与监管规则不规范,政府意志的行政贯彻以及政府对于自身利益和政绩的过多考虑等等。制度性风险给上市公司埋下了发生失败的祸根。
第三,总结了影响上市公司失败的内部因素的特殊性。一般企业失败的内因,可以从企业核心竞争力、公司治理与决策、主业与多元化经营、资本结构与现金流量以及企业诚信等方面来寻找到答案;而通过分析中国上市公司的失败现象来看,非常特殊的是,由于大股东掏空行为导致上市公司失败的案例大量存在,以“掏空行为”为典型特征的大股东对上市公司的不当利用现象极为普遍,这也成为了中国上市公司与非上市公司在失败原因对比上最具有特殊性和差异性的一个关键因素。这是由于证券市场制度性缺陷的存在(如证券市场定位、资产剥离式的改制模式、上市准入制度、退出制度以及监管问题的存在),造就了上市公司与控股股东和地方政府之间特殊的“血脉关系”与特殊的关系处理方式,也正是这一关系,使得控股股东和地方政府为了保持母公司的持续经营或当地的经济与社会发展,天然地具备从上市公司转移资源的“掏空”动机。
第四,本文认为,上市公司失败特殊性产生的根源,就在于对上市公司价值的过度高估。在我国,由于具备了上市资格,上市公司的资源价值与非上市公司相比,就有了超值的内容,包括资本放大效应与低成本融资优势、新闻和形象宣传优势、政策优惠以及企业并购重组优势等等。然而,在我国证券市场上,这些价值却被过度高估了,从而引发了大量对上市公司资源的争夺和不当利用现象,甚至出现了滥用的问题,而这些行为的膨胀,就大大加快了上市公司失败的速度。在现阶段,上市公司价值过度高估产生的原因主要在于:上市资源的收益性形成了对上市公司资源的需求,资本市场定位不当及资格管制导致了上市资源短缺,造成了上市资源供应不足,而上市公司的股权融资偏好、政府的政绩需求以及市场管制漏洞下放大的“隧道效应”,则加剧了上市资源供不应求的紧张局面,资源争夺愈演愈烈,最终形成了对上市公司价值的过度高估,而这些行为又加剧了上市公司失败现象的产生。
第五,在提出的一系列综合治理上市公司失败的对策当中,针对上市公司失败的特殊性,认为政府不仅要准确调整证券市场定位,有效抑制经济剧烈波动,更要注重完善法律和监管,提高不当利用上市公司资源的成本,加大处罚力度,推动上市公司及其控股股东加强自我规范,最终实现资源的有效配置。
China's securities market has gone through 18 years, and the scale of the market is rapidly expanded. As China's economy has been moving towards market-oriented, the securities market has gradually become an important platform for Market allocation of economic resources. With the securities market's construction, development and improvement, and being a special cluster of Chinese companies and the foundation of the securities market, listed companies have achieved a substantial development and increasingly become an important part of China's economy. However, with the increasingly fierce market competition, coupled with various internal and external factors that can not be accurately predicted, China's listed companies have emerged a series of problems such as performance decline and the operation of low-quality. The risk of companies' failures has become an objective existence and increasingly prominent. By the end of June 2008, in the Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares, "insolvent" has 44 listed companies; And by the end of December 31, 2008, in Shanghai and Shenzhen, there were 153 ST or * ST companies, and 96 companies in third board market; during 2007 to 2008, there were also 25 listed companies to be suspended and not to restore listed qualifications.
Listed companies' success or failure in operating performance has a direct impact on the vitality of the stock market. At current, listed companies have been falling and suffers from operating quality degradation, the lack of a solid internal foundation for the rising of share price index, investors lack of confidence on the market, so we are more concerned about what are the factors that affected the operation and management of listed companies, and even what caused the failure of the companies? How does it happen? The exploration of these questions which are observed in reality, apart from the question to ponder, has become the main topic of this article. Especially since the worldwide economic crisis in 1929 ,an unprecedented serious financial crisis between 2007and 2008 has swept the globe and deeply affected the Chinese once again, Chinese economy in transition, fledgling securities market and listed companies in China are accepting and experiencing an unprecedented test of the crisis. Although the global plan to rescue market is continually introduced and our country also introduced a 4-trillion rescue package, with the effects of the financial crisis intensified, the worsening external environment, and immediate measures to expand domestic demand in difficult circumstances, a lot of the performance of listed companies have fallen sharply, and many companies discontinue or reduce their production as a selection manner to tide over their difficulties. In the circumstances of serious financial crisis, the more serious situation of listed companies has been on the horizon. Therefore, undertaking a study to the failure of listed companies, based on current reality has become an urgent requirement. Through the research in this area, listed companies can improve the conditions of the preservation and rational use of the necessary resources for future development, avoid or reduce losses, and lay the foundation for successful operation. This also will help investors and other stakeholders in our country judge and evaluate the real situation of listed companies to prevent a risk of failure. Of course, as a warning, it also provides other emerging Chinese enterprises with a useful reference.
The method used in this thesis combined theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, normal analysis and position analysis, international experience and domestic cases. This paper adopts the research thinking in the following:
Chapter I: Introduction. In this section, there are thesis topic and its significance, the basic assumptions, research methods, research ideas and framework arrangements, etc.
Chapter II: Literature review: Theoretical study on the failure of enterprises. In this chapter, this paper tries to carry out comprehensive theoretical overview, evaluation and analysis from the definition of business failure, as well as various theories to explain factors of corporate failure.
Chapter III: Phenomena description: Analysis to the characteristics of the failure of China's Listed Companies. This chapter first defines China's listed companies' failure, and then carries out analyses on their characteristics from industry distribution, geographical distribution, asset size distribution, time distribution, lasting time distribution, failure path and financial characteristics, etc, and gives the risk warning conclusion.
Chapter IV: Analysis on external factors of listed companies' failure. This chapter firstly gives the distinction between general and special influence factors, and makes a theoretical description on external factors of listed companies' failure, and then carries on the real diagnosis examination and the analysis to correlation factor's influence.
Chapter V: Analysis on internal factors of listed companies' failure. This chapter firstly also gives the distinction between general and special influence factors, and makes a theoretical description on internal factors of listed companies' failure. On the basis, this chapter carries on the real diagnosis examination to and the analysis to listed companies failure from financial and corporate governance angels.
Chapter VI: Root reasons cause the specificity of listed companies' failure: Excessively over-estimated to the value of listed companies. This chapter first carries out the economic analysis to listed companies value's formation. On this basis, it is proposed that the root reasons of listed companies failed particularity lie to be excessive overestimation to the resource value, and given theoretical analysis on the reason why it exists over-estimated to listed value.
Chapter VII: Integrated governance measures to the failure of China's listed companies. This chapter mainly proposes the governance measures from the government and listed companies themselves angles.
Chapter VIII: Conclusion. In this paper, this chapter summarizes the main conclusions, and explained this paper's research characteristic, the deficiency and the following research tentative plan.
The most important feature of this study are all the studies will be placed in a specific Chinese policies and systems background, to study the characteristics and impact factors of the failure of listed companies ,and to do a new depth on their root causes of particular problems. Comparing to other studies, the study of this article is more comprehensive, deeply and meticulously. Innovative conclusion manifests in the following areas:
First, the characteristics and specificity of China listed companies' failure are summarized and emphasized. This article emphasizes the characteristics and its specificity of the listed companies' failure on the base of profession, region, property scale, the going on market time, lasting time, failure's way and so on.(1) The listed company unable to pay debts with their assets has not been able to enter the bankrupt procedure. Although at present many listed companies have already been unable to pay debts with their assets condition actually, but there hasn't been one listed company entering the bankrupt procedure. (2) Most of the failed companies are those what were listed before 1997. This is our country stock market's special and the specific phenomenon. This is close correlation with our country stock market's initial period establishment goal for the state-owned enterprise to fund and the system difficulty. (3) The phenomenon of our country stock market's "Once listed, then change face" sometimes occurs. More listed company failed between 4 years and 10 years, although many carried massive funds which the outstanding share collects, even have big development plan. Their defeat occurs actually in initial listed time and the ambitious period of expansion. Many listed companies actually didn't take advantage of going on the market and the fund east wind to develop rapidly. They had actually entered the defeat region of losing money continuously and even guarantying the shell in the short time after circling money. This article believes that, above phenomenon's appearance, the fund bottleneck no longer is its primary cause, but should seeks the explanation from the enterprise's wrong financing idea and preferences as well as the stock market institutional flaw aspects.
Second, this paper summarized the specificity of external factors which affected the failure of listed companies. From the external environment, the impact factors of listed companies operation contain economic cycle fluctuation, macroscopic policy and industry restructure, governance and legal environment, market operation and competition, etc. What is more special, because of their qualifications of the market transaction and the direct financing, the government also had to carry out special managements to distinguish from non-listed companies. In the failure process of listed companies, the systems defects of China' national conditions have a more prominent role, and become the special factors from non-listed companies. These defects include improper location of the early stock market, nonstandard rules of market access, exit, and supervision, excessive consideration of the government will, and so on. Systematic risks lead to failure of listed companies afterwards.
Third, sum up the specificity of the internal factors that cause the failure of a listed company. Generally, the internal cause of a company can be found from the enterprise's core competitiveness, corporate governance and decision-making, the main industry and the diversification of operations, the capital structure, cash flow and the corporate integrity and so on. However, through the analysis of the failure of China's listed companies, it is very special that a large number of cases exist that the major shareholders' "hollowing out" acts have lead to the failure of listed company. The "hollowing out" actions have been a typical characteristic of the major shareholders of a listed company. The phenomenon is common that the major shareholders of a listed company improperly use a listed company, which has also become the most unique, different and key factor in contrasting China's listed companies and non-listed companies. The existence of defects of the stock market system, such as the position of the stock market, the asset stripping of restructuring mode, the system of market access and getting off and the regulatory issues, creates the "blood relationship" and the special handling relationship among a listed company, the controlling shareholders and the local governments. It is just this relationship, the controlling shareholder and local governments in order to maintain the continued operation of the parent company and the local economic and social development, natural has the" emptied "motives to transfer a listed company's resources.
Fourth, this paper argues that the uniqueness of a listed company's failure roots in the overvaluation of a listed company. In our country, comparing to non-listed companies, because of the listed qualifications, the value of a listed company's resources contains some over-value, including amplification, low-cost capital financing advantages, the advantages of information, the image of publicity, policy preferences and the advantages of mergers and acquisitions and so on. However, in China's stock market, these values were overvalued so highly that it has lead to a large number of phenomenon competing for and improper using a listed company's resources, and even abusing the resources. And the expansion of these acts has greatly accelerated the Speed of the failure of a listed company. At this stage, the reasons to the over-estimated value of a listed company are mainly due to the following. The listed resources' profitability causes the need for the resources of a listed company. The improper positioning in capital markets and control of qualifications leads to shortage of listed resources and the supply. And the shortage of listed resources supply has been increased by the preference of equity financing, the need of the government's performance and the enlarged "tunneling" under the loopholes of the market control. So the competition for resources becomes more and more intense, which finally causes the highly over-estimated value of a listed company, and just these behaves increases the phenomenon of the failure of a listed company.
Fifth, in a series of the comprehensive management measures to the failure of listed companies, and in view of the specificity of the failure of listed companies, we think that the government securities market should accurately adjust the position, control effectively the violent fluctuations in the economy. Especially, the government should improve the legal and regulatory to focus on raising the cost of improper using the resources of listed companies much higher and increasing penalties, and also promote listed companies and major shareholders to strengthen self-regulation and ultimately realize the effective allocation of resources.
引文
[1]“尽管世界各国都存在着少数诸如瑞典斯托拉公司(700余年历史),中国同仁堂(300多年历史),美国杜邦公司(200余年历史),芬兰诺基亚公司(100多年历史)等“海龟”型的长寿企业,短寿仍然是绝大部分企业的宿命。长寿则是企业“物种进化”过程中的稀有现象。”--刘淑敏,“打破短寿宿命--冲出企业生命周期理论的迷宫”,《企业管理》,2005.7.
[1]《企业破产与破产操作》,陈云正、孙福全著,法律出版社,1998年,第121页。
[2]资料来源:作者根据中国证监会历年公告整理。
[1]《宏观经济学--分析和政策》,(美),劳埃德·雷诺兹著,马宾译,商务印书馆,1983年,第12页。
[1]《现代汉语词典》,中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室编,商务印书馆,1978年,第1136页。
[2]《市场竞争失败的经济学透视》,周俊著,中国经济出版社,2000年,第7页。
[1]郑海航教授的成果具体参见《国有企业亏损研究》,经济管理出版社,1998年,第4页。
[2]《企业预警管理论》,余廉著,河北科学技术出版社,1999年,第3页。
[1]《企业理财学》,余绪缨主编,辽宁人民出版社,1995年,第404-405页。
[2]本表参考了林伊华的《公司绩效不佳后采取反应动作之实证研究》,东海大学,2000年,第7页。
[1]The Business Failure Record,New York:Dun＆Bradstreet,1983.9.12,转引自《企业理财学》,余绪缨主编,辽宁人民出版社。1995年.第406页。
[2]《运用财务比率预测财务危机之实证研究》,陈肇荣,国立政治大学企业管理研究所,1983。
[1]图表来源:Richard A.D'Aveni,1989,Dependability and Organization Bankruptcy:an Application of Agency and Prospect Theory,Management?science,vol.35,No.9(sep),1123,
[1]图表来源:Understanding the Causes of Business Failure Crises:Generic Failure Types,Bill Richardson,Sonny Nwankwo,Susan Richardson(1994),Manngement Decision,Vol.32 No.4,1994,p10
[1]吴晓波:《大败局》(修订版)、(Ⅱ),浙江人民出版社,2007年版。
[1]曹思源,《论现行破产法的修改》,开放时代,1999年第1期。
[1]周成荣,《我国破产法实施的困惑及对策思考》,重庆行政,2000.2。
[2]刘俊海,《规范破产行为,保护债权人利益》,中国法制网站,http://www.sinolow.net.cn。
[1]中国工商银行企业破产问题课题组,《关于企业破产问题的调查报告》,经济研究,1997年第4期,第20页。
[1]《企业生命周期》,爱迪斯著,赵睿、何燕生译,中国社会科学出版社,1997年版,第72页。
[1]《财务分析》,张先志,大连:东北财经大学出版社,2005年版,第240页。
[1]《现金流量分析在我国财务分析体系中的应用研究》,刘婷,中国优秀博硕士学位论文数据库,CNKI中国知网,2003(9),第24-29页。
[2]数据来自北京思源兼并与破产咨询事务所创办人曹思源的“破产数据库”。
[1]《经济发展理论》,(美)约瑟夫.熊彼得著,何畏等译,商务印书馆,1990年,第263页。
[1]《财务预警系统管理研究》,张友堂,中国人民大学出版社,2004年版,第70-71页。
[1]《自动奖惩机》,盛洪,《点拨老板》,中国经济出版社,2001年版,第275页。
[1]《市场进入退出与企业家竞争战略》,陈明森著,中国经济出版社,2001年,第69-72页。
[1]本表参考了《市场进入退出与企业竞争战略》,陈明森著,中国经济出版社,2001年,第262页相关资料。
[1]资料来源:Buzzell,R.D:B.T.Gale,and R.C.M.Sultan,"Market Share:A Key to Profitability',Harvard Business Review,Jan-Feb 1975,pp.97-106。
转引自(美)David Besanko,David Dranove&Mark Shanley,武亚军总校译,《公司战略经济学》,北京大学出版社,1999年,第168-170页。
[1]《公司战略经济学》,(美)David Bcsanko,David Dranove＆Mark Shanley,武亚军总校译,北京大学出版社,1999年,第170页。
[2]贝特朗模型以价格为变量分析两个寡头企业的市场均衡。其基本假设为:1)产品同质;2)边际成本为常数(边际成本等于平均成本);3)厂商调整价格时,认为其他厂商不会同时调整价格;4)消费者购买行为以价格为唯一决策依据:5)如果价格相等。两个企业的市场份额均为50%。该模型认为。两个寡头企业经过重复博弈,价格竞争的结果是与完全市场竞争结果一致,即均按照边际成本定价,各自得经济利润为零,陷入囚徒困境。
[1]《Corporate Financial Distress》,Edward I.Airman,A Wiley-Interscience Publication,John Wiley & Sons,1983年版,第87页。
[2]《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》第一卷,JohnEatwell等编,经济科学出版社1992版,第306页。
[1]《产权经济学导论》,黄少安,经济科学出版社,2004年版,第86页。而在本文中,根据研究目的和内容的需要,主要以企业外部正式制度(以政府的法律、法规及相应政策为主)作为制度内涵进行讨论。
[2]佘廉:《企业预警管理论》,河北科学技术出版社1999年版。
[1]《股市“变色龙”现象的成因及对策》,黄海沧,金晓燕,财会研究,2005年第9期,第46-47页。
[1]《关于上市公司担保圈问题的思考》,朱世芳,黄汉江,财会研究,2005年第2期,第55-56页。
[2]《上市公司财务舞弊的经济学解释》,李晓丁,沈淑霞,财会研究,2006第1期,第52-53页。
[1]由于影响上市公司失败的宏观因素非常之多,本文仅选择了有限的几个比较重要的方面进行回归,加上可取的样本时间序列很短,解释力达到37%已经很好了。Altman在《Corporate Financial Distress》一书中进行的宏观经济因素回归中分析中,R~2=0.26,他认为“已经相当令人鼓舞了”。参见Altman《Corporate Financial Distress》1983年版,第96页。
[1]《上市公司再融资及其监管研究》,国泰君安证券股份有限公司,李迅雷等,2001年1月。
[1]世界500强企业研究与开发经费占销售收入的比重正逐年上升,一般在5%-10%之间.《现代经济探讨》,2004年11期,江苏省社会科学院经济研究所,武博。
[2]我国每出口一台价值32美元的DVD,要支付外国公司专利费18美元,再扣除13美元成本。企业仅赚1美元。同样,一台售价79美元的国产MP3。国外要拿走45美元专利费,加上制造成本32.5美元,获利为1.5美元.这就是令人震.惊的“一美元的中国制造”现象。数据来源:解放日报,2006年3月14日。
[1]主营业务利润率为上市公司实施特别处理前一年的数据。
[2]M.E.Porter,"From competitive advantage to corporate strategy","HarvardBusinenReview",May-June1987,p.43-59.
[1]《上市公司财务失败预测》,袁云峰、欧阳令男,经济理论与经济管理,2004年第9期。
[1]企业经过批准成为上市公司,即视为获得了一种资格,这一资格会给上市公司带来一般企业难以拥有的利益,从这一点来看,本文认为,这种资格的获得意味着上市公司成为一种资源.--作者
[2]张耀辉,“壳资源”及其稀缺性,投资研究,1998年第4期。
[1]中国证券市场概览,中国证券报,2003年6月19日。
[1]因为上市公司具有充裕的权益资金,在现有资本市场弱有效和投资理性不足的情况下。股权融资成本是一种软约束而带来的软成本,某种意义上是零成本。《中国上市公司股权融资偏好分析》,黄少安、张岗,经济研究,2001年第11期。
[1]李泉池、天星:《股权结构、公司治理与投资者保护》,《证券广场》,2006年第2期。
[1]See T.J.Larkin and S.Larkin,"Reaching and Changing Frontline Employees",Harvard Business Review,74/3(May/June 1996):95-104.
1、李泉池、天星,《股权结构、公司治理与投资者保护》,《证券广场》,2006年第2期。
2、刘怀德,《不确定性经济学研究》,上海财经大学出版社2001年。
3、黄少安,《产权经济学导论》,经济科学出版社,2004年。
4、李拉亚,《通货膨胀与不确定性》,中国人民大学出版社,1995年。
5、袁云峰、欧阳令男,《上市公司财务失败预测》,经济理论与经济管理,2004年第9期。
6、魏成龙,《中国企业并购绩效分析》,经济学动态,2004第6期。
7、李迅雷等,《上市公司再融资及其监管研究》,国泰君安证券股份有限公司,2001年1月。
8、李晓丁、沈淑霞,《上市公司财务舞弊的经济学解释》,财会研究,2006第1期。
9、黄海沧、金晓燕,《股市“变色龙”现象的成因及对策》,财会研究,2005年第9期。
10、朱世芳、黄汉江,《关于上市公司担保圈问题的思考》,财会研究,2005年第2期。
11、陈明森,《市场进入退出与企业家竞争战略》,中国经济出版社,2001年。
12、佘廉,《企业预警管理论》,河北科学技术出版社,1999年。
13、盛洪,《自动奖惩机》,《点拨老板》,中国经济出版社,2001年。
14、周其仁,《学会在景气低迷时创新》,《点拔老板》,中国经济出版社,2001年。
15、张友堂,《财务预警系统管理研究》,中国人民大学出版社,2004年。
16、孟祥林、冯宗智、苏可,《生存还是死亡——刘永行话说'企业相对论'》,中华工商时报,1999年1月16日。
17、张先志,《财务分析》,东北财经大学出版社,2005年。
18、刘婷,《现金流量分析在我国财务分析体系中的应用研究》,中国优秀博硕士 学位论文数据库,CNKI中国知网,2003(9)。
19、中国工商银行企业破产问题课题组,《关于企业破产问题的调查报告》,经济研究,1997年第4期。
20、曹思源,《论现行破产法的修改》,开放时代,1999年第1期。
21、周成荣,《我国破产法实施的困惑及对策思考》,重庆行政,2000年第2期。
22、刘俊海,《规范破产行为,保护债权人利益》,中国法制网站,2000年1月9日。
23、佘丛国、席酉民,《我国企业预警研究理论综述》,预测,2003年第2期。
24、阮平南、王塑源,《企业经营风险及预警研究》,决策借鉴,1999年第3期。
25、胡华夏、罗险峰,《现代企业生存风险预警指标体系的理论探讨》,科学学与科学技术管理,2001年第6期。
26、韩福荣、徐艳梅,《合营企业稳定性与寿命周期》,中国发展出版社,1997年。
27、郑子云、司徒永富,《企业风险管理》,商务印书馆,2002年。
28、张玉波,《危机管理智囊》,机械工业出版社,2003年。
29、王林,《不确定性与企业的对策研究》,云南社会科学,2004年第2期。
30、徐泽水,《几类多属性决策方法研究》,东南大学2002年博士论文。
31、徐泽水,《不确定性多属性决策方法及应用》,清华大学出版社,2004年。
32、黄亦林,《不确定性与凯恩斯经济学》,经济评论,1997年第6期。
33、王健,《新凯恩斯主义经济学》,经济科学出版社,1997年。
34、马艳,《风险利益论》,复旦大学出版社,2002年。
35、王林、唐晓东,《经济波动与企业预警》,经济体制改革,2000年第2期。
36、黄淳、李彬,《不确定性经济学研究综述》,经济学动态,2004年第1期。
37、林文修,《演化式类神经网络为基底的企业危机诊断模型:智慧资本之运用》,国立中央大学资讯管理系博士论文,2000年。
38、吴晓波,《大败局》(修订版)(Ⅱ),浙江人民出版社,2007年版。
39、陈肇荣,《运用财务比率预测财务危机之实证研究》,国立政治大学企业管理研究所,1983。
40、余绪缨,《企业理财学》,辽宁人民出版社,1995年。
41、林伊华,《公司绩效不佳后采取反应动作之实证研究》,东海大学硕士论文, 2000年。
42、郑海航,《国有企业亏损研究》,经济管理出版社,1998年。
43、中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室编,《现代汉语词典》,商务印书馆,1978年。
44、周俊,《市场竞争失败的经济学透视》,中国经济出版社,2000年。
45、刘淑敏,《打破短寿宿命--冲出企业生命周期理论的迷宫》,企业管理,2005年第7期。
46、陈云正、孙福全,《企业破产与破产操作》,法律出版社,1998年。
47、陈静,《上市公司财务恶化预测的实证分析》,会计研究,1999年第4期。
48、陈晓、陈治鸿,《中国上市公司的财务困境》,中国会计与财务研究,2000年第9期。
49、高培业、张道奎,《企业失败判别模型实证研究》,统计研究,2000年第10期。
50、吴世农、卢贤义,《我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究》,经济研究,2001年第6期。
51、薛爽,《亏损上市公司实证研究》,复旦大学出版社,2005年。
52、张勇,《现代企业生命力--现代企业生命周期论》,机械工业出版社,2007年。
53、伊迪丝·彭罗斯著,赵晓译,《企业成长理论》,上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2007年。
54、何顺文、李元莎,《中国内地公司管制评析》,中国财政经济出版社,2006年。
55、张玲,《财务危机预警分析判别模型及其应用》,预测,2000年第6期。
56、高山晟著,刘振亚译,《经济学中的分析方法》,中国人民大学出版社,2001年。
57、黄少安、张岗,《中国上市公司股权融资偏好分析》,经济研究,2001年第11期。
58、张耀辉,《“壳资源”及其稀缺性》,投资研究,1998年第4期。
59、卢平和,《大股东如何掏空上市公司》,中国经济周刊,2003年第27期。
60、叶祥松,《论我国上市公司的制度性缺陷》,求是学刊,2002年7月第4期。
61、严若森,《公司隧道效应研究述评》,经济理论与经济管理,2008年第10期。
62、劳埃德.雷诺兹著,马宾译,《宏观经济学--分析和政策》,商务印书馆,1983年。
63、斯蒂芬.J.托洛维斯基著,王根蓓译,徐坚校,《宏观经济动态学方法》,上海财经大学出版社,2002年。
64、David Besanko,David Dranove＆Mark Shanley,武亚军总校译,《公司战略经济学》,北京大学出版社,1999年。
65、约瑟夫.熊彼得著,何畏等译,《经济发展理论》,商务印书馆,1990年。
66、爱迪斯著,赵睿、何燕生译,《企业生命周期》,中国社会科学出版社,1997年。
67、莱维.巴特拉著,中国国际信托投资公司译,《1990年大萧条》,上海三联书店,1988年。
68、Michael P.Niemira、Philip A.Klein著,邱东等译,《金融与经济周期预测》,中国统计出版社,1998年。
69、David Popenoe著,李强译,《社会学》,中国人民大学出版社,1999年。
70、John Eatwell等编,《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》第一卷,经济科学出版社,1992年。
71、L.J.Gitman,Basic Managerial Finance,(Third Edition),Harper Publishers,1992,p73.
72,Richard A.D'Aveni,1989,Dependability and Organization Bankruptcy:an Application of Agency and Prospect Theory,Management Science,vol.35,No.9(sep),1123.
73、Buzzell,R.D;B.T.Gale,andR.C.M.Sultan,"Market Share:AKey to Profitability",Harvard Business Review,Jan-Feb 1975,pp.97-106.
74、See T.J.Larkin and S.Larkin,"Reaching and Changing Frontline Employees',Harvard Business Review,74/3(May/June 1996):95-104.
75、M.E.Porter,"From competitive advantage to corporate strategy","Harvard Businen Review ",May-June1987,p.43-59.
76、Edward I.Altman,Corporate Financial Distress,A Wiley-Interscience Publication, John Wiley & Sons, 1983.
77、Argenti, J., Corporate Collapse: The Causes and Symptoms, McGraw-Hill, London, 1976.
78、Bill Richardson, Sonny Nwankwo, Susan Richardson, Understanding the Causes of Business Failure Crises: Generic Failure Types, Management Decision, Vol.32 No.4, 1994, P11.
79、Wilbur N. Moulton, Howard Thomas, Mark Pruett, Business Failure Pathways: Environmental Stress and Organizational ResPonse, Journal of Management, 1996, Vol.22, No.4.571-595.
80、Altaian E.L, Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 23, nr. 4, September 1968, p. 589-609.
81、Altaian E.L, Eom Y.H., Kim D. W., Failure prediction: Evidence from Korea. Journal of International Financial Management and Accounting, 1995, Vol. 6, nr. 3,230-249.
82、Altaian E.L, Haldeman RG, Narayanan P., 1977, ZETA analysis: A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 1, nr. 1, p. 29-51.
83、Blum, M., 1974,Failing Company Discriminant Analysis, Journal of Accounting Research, Spring 1974, pp1-25.
84、Boritz J.E., Kennedy D.B., Albuquerque A., 1995, Predicting corporate failure using a neural network approach. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, Vol. 4, nr.2, p. 95-111.
85、Brockman, P., Turtle, H.J., 2003. A Barrier Option Framework for Corporate Security Valuation. Journal of Financial Economics, 67,511-529.
86、Bryant, S. M. 1997, A Casa-Based Reasoning Approach to Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management 6 (1997) 195-214
87、Cox, D. R 1972, Regression Models and Life Table, Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Sera, Vol.34, pp.187-202.
88、D'Aveni, R. 1989. The aftermath of organizational decline: A longitudinal study of the strategic and managerial characteristics of declining firms. Academy of Mmzcr,gemen/ Journcd.32: 577-605.
89、D' Aveni, Richard A.1989, Dependability and organization bankruptcy: an application of agency and prospect theory, Management Science, vol.35, No.9(sep), 1120-1138
90、Daily, C.M. and Dalton, D.R. 1994, Corporate governance and the bankrupt mm, Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 15 No. 8,pp. 643-54.
91、Deakin, E. B., 1972, A Discriminant Analysis of Predictors of Business Failure, Journal of Accounting Research, Spring, pp. 167-179
92、Dimitras A., Zanakis S., Zopudinis C, 1996, A survey of business failures with an emphasis on failure prediction methods and industrial applications. European Journal of Operational Research, VoI. 90, nr. 3, p. 487-513.
93、Fama, E.F. 1980, Agency problem and the theory of the firm, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 88, pp. 288-308.
94、Fama,E.,Jensen,M.,1983.Separation of Ownership and Control.Journal ofLaw and Economics, Vo126,301 -325
95、Foreman, R.D., 2002. A Logistic Analysis of Bankruptcy within the US Local Telecommunications Industry. Journal of Economics and Business, 1-32.
96、Foster, G, 1978, Financial Statement Analysis, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall Inc.Journal of Risk and Insurance, January 2006, vol. 3,, p. 7-31.
97、Goldstein, A. S. 1988. Corporate Comeback. John Wiley&Son, 1988.
98、Greco S, Matarazzo B, Slowinski R. 1998. A new rough set approach to evaluation of bankruptcy risk. Operational Tools in the Management of Financial Risk, Zopounidis (ed.).Kluwer: Dordrecht; 121-136.
99、Hambrick, D.C.&Finkelstein, S. 1987. Managerial discretion: A bridge between polar views of organizational outcomes, pp. 369-406.
100、 Hambrick, DC&D' Aveni, R.A, 1988. Large corporate failures as downward spirals. Administrative Science Qarterly, 33:1-23.
101、Hanjo,Y.2000,Business Failure of New Firms:An Empirical Analysis Using a Multiplicative Hazards Model,International Journal of Industrial Organization,No.18,pp.557-574.
102、Hanson,G.S.&Wemerfelt,B.1989.Determinants of firm performance:The relative importance of economic and organizational factors.Strategic Management Journal.10:399- 411.
103、Healy,J.D.,1987.A Note on Multivariate CUSUM Procedures.Technometfies,29(4),409-412.
104、HoI,S,Sjur Westgaard and Wijst,Nico van derv 2002 Capital Structure and the Prediction of Bankruptcy,Euro Working Group on Financial Modeling 31st Meeting,Fall.2002 November 7-9,2002
105、Jo,Hongkyu,Ingoo Han,1996,Integration of ease-based forecasting,neural network,and discriminant analysis for bankruptcy prediction,Expert Systems with Applications,Vol.11,No.4,1996,pp.415-422.
106、John,Kose and Lemma W.Senbet,1998.Corporate Governance and Board Effec-tiveness,Journal of Banking and Finance,22:371-403.
107、Judge,W.Q.and Zeithaml,C.P.1992,Institutional and strategic choice perspectives on board involvement in the strategic decision process,Academy of Management Journal,pp.766-94.
108、Kahya,Emel and Panayiotis Theodossiou,1999,Predicting Corporate Financial Distress:A Time-Series CUSUM Methodology,Review of Quantitative finance and Accounting,13,323-346.
109、Kevie C.W.Chen,and Chi-Wen Jevons Lee(1993),Financial Ratios and Corporate Endurance:A Case of the Oil and Gas Industry,Contemporary Accounting Research,Vol.9,No.2,pp.667-694.
110、Kolodner,J.L.1993,Case-Based Reasoning.Morgan Kaufinann,San Mateo,CA(1993)
111、L.L.1996,Analysis and Prediction of Insolvency in the Property-Liability Insurance Industry:A Comparison Logit and Hazard Model,Journal of Risk and Insurance,Vol.63,pp.121-130.
112、Laitinen, E.K. 1991 .Financial Ratios and Different Failure Processes. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Sep. 1991. pp.649-73.
113、Lindsay D.H., Campbell A., 1996, A chaos approach to bankruptcy prediction. Journal of Applied Business Research, Vol. 12, nr. 4, p. 1-9.
114、Luoma M., Laitinen E.K., 1991, Survival analysis as a tool for company failure prediction. Omega International Journal of Management Science, Vol. 19, nr. 6, p. 673-678.
115、Mar-Molinero CM., Ezzamel M., 1991, Multidimensional scaling applied to corporate failure.OMEGA International Journal of Management Science, Vol. 19, nr. 4, p. 259-274.
116、McKee TE.2000,Developing a Bankruptcy Prediction Model via Rough Sets Theory International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management Int. J. Intell.Sys. Acc. Fin. Mgmt. 9,159-173 (2000).
117、Moulton, W.N, Thomas,H, Pruett, M,1996, Business Failure Path ways: Environmental Stress and Organizational Response. Journal of Management 1996, Vol. 22, No. 4.571-595.
118、Moyer R.C., 1977, Forecasting financial failure: A re-examination. Financial Management, Vol. 6, nr. 1, Spring 1977, p.11-17.
119、Mueller, D.C. 1991,Exit, Entry, and the Competitive Process. In Entry and Market Contestability: An International Comparison, p22, ed. P.A. Geroski and J. Schwalbach (Oxford UK & Cambridge USA: Blackwell)
120、Neophytou E, Charitou A, Charalambous C, 2001, Predicting orporate failure: empirical evidence for the UK. Working Paper, University of Southampton, Department of Accounting and management Science, p. 1-29.
121、Ohlson, J., 1980,Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy', Journal of Accounting Research, 18, 1980.
122、PorterM,1980,Competitive Strategy .[M].Free Press: NewYork.
123、Richard A.Daveni. 1989, management science, vol.35, No.9(sep,1989), 1120-1138.
124、Richardson, B, Nwankwo ,S. Richardson, S(1994) Understanding the Causes of Business Failure Crises: Generic Failure Types,, Management Decision, Vol. 32 No. 4,1994.
125、Russell B. Gregory-Allen and Glenn V. Henderson, Jr.(1991)A Brief Review of Catastrophe Theory and a Test in a Corporate Failure Context ,The Financial Review Vol. 26 Issue2 Page 127 May 1991.
126、Scapens R.W., Ryan RJ., Flecher L., 1981, Explaining corporate failure: A catastrophe theory approach. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Vol. 8, nr. 1, p. 1-26.
127、Schwartz Eli. 1959, Theory of the Capital Structure of the Finn.[ J ].Tine Journal ofFinance, 1959,14(1):39.
128、Skogsvik, K., 1990. Current Cost Accounting Ratios as Predictors of Business Failure: The Swedish Case. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 17 (1), 137-160.
129、Slowinski R., Zopudinis C, 1995, Application of the rough set approach to evaluation of bankruptcy risk. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, Vol. 4, p. 27-41.
130、Smith,RF., and A.H. Winakor,1935,Changes in the Financial Structure of Unsuccessful Corporations,Urbana University of Illinois,Bureau of Business Research.
131、Theodossiou, P. T. 1993, Predicting Shifts in the Time Series Process: An Application in Predicting Business Failure, Journal of the Anerican Statistical Association, Vol.88, No.422,441-449.
132、Van Home, J.C.,1987 Financial Management & Policy, 7th ed., New York: Prentice-Hall Inc.
133、Waiters, J. E., (1957) The Determination of Technical Solvency, Journal of Business, 30,30-45.
134、Ward T.J., Foster B.P., 1997, A note on selecting a response measure for financal distress. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Vol. 24, nr. 6, p. 869-879.
135、Ward, T. J. 1994. An Empirical Study of the Incremental Predictive Ability of Beaver's Native Operating Flow Measure Using Four-State Ordinal Model of Financial Distress. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 47-61.
136、Wijst, D van der. 1989. Financial Structure in Small Business: Theory, Tests and Applications. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Nolume 320 in the series Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems (Springer-Verlag, Berlin), 1989.
137、Zmijewski, M.,1984, Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models Journal of Accounting Research (Supplement),Vol .22,pp.59-82.
138、Hubert Ooghe, Soie De Prijcker,2006,Failure Processes and Causes of Company Bbankruptcy: A Typology, working paper, Vlerick Leuven Gent management school.
139、Thomas Astebro, Joachim K.Winter 2002,More Than a Dummy: The Probability of Failure, Survival and Acquisition of Firms in Financial Distress, working paper, University of Waterloo.
140、Joseph P.H. Fan, Jun Huang, Ning Zhu,2007, Fianancial Distress without Bankruptcy: The Case of China, working paper, Chinese University of Hong Kong.
141、Grossman, S. J. & Hart, O. D. Takeover bids, the free-rider problem, and the theory of the Corporation [J]. Bell Journal of Economics, 1980,11 (1): 42-66.
142、Shleifer, A. & Vishny, R. W. Large Shareholders and Corporate Control . The Journal of Political Economy, 1986,94 (3): 461-489.
143、Shleifer, A. & Vishny, R. W. A survey of corporate governance . The Journal of Finance, 1997, 52 (2): 737-783.
144、La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A. & Vishny, R. Investor protection and corporate governance . Journal of Financial Economics, 2000, 58: 3-27.
145、Elloumi, F. & Gueyte, JP. Financial distress and corporate governance: an empirical analysis [J]. Corporate Governance, 2001,1(1): 15-23.
146、Parker, S., Gary, F. P. & Howard, F. T. Corporate governance and corporate failure: a survival analysis. Corporate Governance, 2002,2 (2): 4-12.
147、Lee, TS. & Yeh, YH. Corporate governance and financial distress: evidence from Taiwan. Corporate Governance, 2004,12(3): 378-388.
148、Xu, XN. & Wang, Y. Ownership structure, corporate governance, and firm's performance. 1997, Word Bank working paper.
149、Anderson, J. H., Lee, Y. & Murrell, P. Competition and privatization amidst weak institutions: Evidence for Mongolia. Economic Inquiry, 2000,38 (4): 527-549.
150、Romano, R. Less is more: Making institutional investor activism a valuable mechanism of corporate governance . Yale Journal on Regulation, 2001, 18 (2): 174-251.
151、 Tadesse, S. The allocation and monitoring role of capital markets: Theory and international evidence. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2004,39.
152、Lin, C. Corporatisation and corporate governance in China's economic transition [J], Economics of Planning, 2001,34: 5-35.
153、ACCA Members Supplement July/August 2005. "Planning is essential for business Success".
154、Stewart Hamilton, Alicia Micklethwait, Greed and Corporate Failure: The Lessons from Recent Disasters By Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006.
155、David Knights, Majella O'Leary, Reflecting on corporate scandals: the failure of ethical leadership, Business Ethics, 2005 Vol.14(No.4).
156、Lachlan Colquhoun, Finding the cause of corporate failure, AGSM Management ISSUE 3,2005.
157、Meredith F. Small,Lessons in Corporate Failure From a 5th-Grader Live Science's Human Nature Columnist, 2008 .
158、 Darrell Duffie, Ke Wang, Susan Athey, Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction with Stochastic Covariates." Working Paper, Stanford Graduate School of Business (2004).
159、Sypros Makridakis, What can we learn from corporate failure?, 1991, Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.
160、Athanasios Tsagkanos, Antonios Georgopoulos, Corporate failure risk assessment of Greek companies International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management 2008 - Vol. 9, No.1/2 pp. 5-14.
[1]《企业破产与破产操作》,陈云正、孙福全著,法律出版社,1998年,第121页。
[2]资料来源:作者根据中国证监会历年公告整理。
[1]《宏观经济学--分析和政策》,(美),劳埃德·雷诺兹著,马宾译,商务印书馆,1983年,第12页。
[1]《现代汉语词典》,中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室编,商务印书馆,1978年,第1136页。
[2]《市场竞争失败的经济学透视》,周俊著,中国经济出版社,2000年,第7页。
[1]郑海航教授的成果具体参见《国有企业亏损研究》,经济管理出版社,1998年,第4页。
[2]《企业预警管理论》,余廉著,河北科学技术出版社,1999年,第3页。
[1]《企业理财学》,余绪缨主编,辽宁人民出版社,1995年,第404-405页。
[2]本表参考了林伊华的《公司绩效不佳后采取反应动作之实证研究》,东海大学,2000年,第7页。
[1]The Business Failure Record,New York:Dun＆Bradstreet,1983.9.12,转引自《企业理财学》,余绪缨主编,辽宁人民出版社。1995年.第406页。
[2]《运用财务比率预测财务危机之实证研究》,陈肇荣,国立政治大学企业管理研究所,1983。
[1]图表来源:Richard A.D'Aveni,1989,Dependability and Organization Bankruptcy:an Application of Agency and Prospect Theory,Management?science,vol.35,No.9(sep),1123,
[1]图表来源:Understanding the Causes of Business Failure Crises:Generic Failure Types,Bill Richardson,Sonny Nwankwo,Susan Richardson(1994),Manngement Decision,Vol.32 No.4,1994,p10
[1]吴晓波:《大败局》(修订版)、(Ⅱ),浙江人民出版社,2007年版。
[1]曹思源,《论现行破产法的修改》,开放时代,1999年第1期。
[1]周成荣,《我国破产法实施的困惑及对策思考》,重庆行政,2000.2。
[2]刘俊海,《规范破产行为,保护债权人利益》,中国法制网站,http://www.sinolow.net.cn。
[1]中国工商银行企业破产问题课题组,《关于企业破产问题的调查报告》,经济研究,1997年第4期,第20页。
[1]《企业生命周期》,爱迪斯著,赵睿、何燕生译,中国社会科学出版社,1997年版,第72页。
[1]《财务分析》,张先志,大连:东北财经大学出版社,2005年版,第240页。
[1]《现金流量分析在我国财务分析体系中的应用研究》,刘婷,中国优秀博硕士学位论文数据库,CNKI中国知网,2003(9),第24-29页。
[2]数据来自北京思源兼并与破产咨询事务所创办人曹思源的“破产数据库”。
[1]《经济发展理论》,(美)约瑟夫.熊彼得著,何畏等译,商务印书馆,1990年,第263页。
[1]《财务预警系统管理研究》,张友堂,中国人民大学出版社,2004年版,第70-71页。
[1]《自动奖惩机》,盛洪,《点拨老板》,中国经济出版社,2001年版,第275页。
[1]《市场进入退出与企业家竞争战略》,陈明森著,中国经济出版社,2001年,第69-72页。
[1]本表参考了《市场进入退出与企业竞争战略》,陈明森著,中国经济出版社,2001年,第262页相关资料。
[1]资料来源:Buzzell,R.D:B.T.Gale,and R.C.M.Sultan,"Market Share:A Key to Profitability',Harvard Business Review,Jan-Feb 1975,pp.97-106。
转引自(美)David Besanko,David Dranove&Mark Shanley,武亚军总校译,《公司战略经济学》,北京大学出版社,1999年,第168-170页。
[1]《公司战略经济学》,(美)David Bcsanko,David Dranove＆Mark Shanley,武亚军总校译,北京大学出版社,1999年,第170页。
[2]贝特朗模型以价格为变量分析两个寡头企业的市场均衡。其基本假设为:1)产品同质;2)边际成本为常数(边际成本等于平均成本);3)厂商调整价格时,认为其他厂商不会同时调整价格;4)消费者购买行为以价格为唯一决策依据:5)如果价格相等。两个企业的市场份额均为50%。该模型认为。两个寡头企业经过重复博弈,价格竞争的结果是与完全市场竞争结果一致,即均按照边际成本定价,各自得经济利润为零,陷入囚徒困境。
[1]《Corporate Financial Distress》,Edward I.Airman,A Wiley-Interscience Publication,John Wiley & Sons,1983年版,第87页。
[2]《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》第一卷,JohnEatwell等编,经济科学出版社1992版,第306页。
[1]《产权经济学导论》,黄少安,经济科学出版社,2004年版,第86页。而在本文中,根据研究目的和内容的需要,主要以企业外部正式制度(以政府的法律、法规及相应政策为主)作为制度内涵进行讨论。
[2]佘廉:《企业预警管理论》,河北科学技术出版社1999年版。
[1]《股市“变色龙”现象的成因及对策》,黄海沧,金晓燕,财会研究,2005年第9期,第46-47页。
[1]《关于上市公司担保圈问题的思考》,朱世芳,黄汉江,财会研究,2005年第2期,第55-56页。
[2]《上市公司财务舞弊的经济学解释》,李晓丁,沈淑霞,财会研究,2006第1期,第52-53页。
[1]由于影响上市公司失败的宏观因素非常之多,本文仅选择了有限的几个比较重要的方面进行回归,加上可取的样本时间序列很短,解释力达到37%已经很好了。Altman在《Corporate Financial Distress》一书中进行的宏观经济因素回归中分析中,R~2=0.26,他认为“已经相当令人鼓舞了”。参见Altman《Corporate Financial Distress》1983年版,第96页。
[1]《上市公司再融资及其监管研究》,国泰君安证券股份有限公司,李迅雷等,2001年1月。
[1]世界500强企业研究与开发经费占销售收入的比重正逐年上升,一般在5%-10%之间.《现代经济探讨》,2004年11期,江苏省社会科学院经济研究所,武博。
[2]我国每出口一台价值32美元的DVD,要支付外国公司专利费18美元,再扣除13美元成本。企业仅赚1美元。同样,一台售价79美元的国产MP3。国外要拿走45美元专利费,加上制造成本32.5美元,获利为1.5美元.这就是令人震.惊的“一美元的中国制造”现象。数据来源:解放日报,2006年3月14日。
[1]主营业务利润率为上市公司实施特别处理前一年的数据。
[2]M.E.Porter,"From competitive advantage to corporate strategy","HarvardBusinenReview",May-June1987,p.43-59.
[1]《上市公司财务失败预测》,袁云峰、欧阳令男,经济理论与经济管理,2004年第9期。
[1]企业经过批准成为上市公司,即视为获得了一种资格,这一资格会给上市公司带来一般企业难以拥有的利益,从这一点来看,本文认为,这种资格的获得意味着上市公司成为一种资源.--作者
[2]张耀辉,“壳资源”及其稀缺性,投资研究,1998年第4期。
[1]中国证券市场概览,中国证券报,2003年6月19日。
[1]因为上市公司具有充裕的权益资金,在现有资本市场弱有效和投资理性不足的情况下。股权融资成本是一种软约束而带来的软成本,某种意义上是零成本。《中国上市公司股权融资偏好分析》,黄少安、张岗,经济研究,2001年第11期。
[1]李泉池、天星:《股权结构、公司治理与投资者保护》,《证券广场》,2006年第2期。
[1]See T.J.Larkin and S.Larkin,"Reaching and Changing Frontline Employees",Harvard Business Review,74/3(May/June 1996):95-104.
1、李泉池、天星,《股权结构、公司治理与投资者保护》,《证券广场》,2006年第2期。
2、刘怀德,《不确定性经济学研究》,上海财经大学出版社2001年。
3、黄少安,《产权经济学导论》,经济科学出版社,2004年。
4、李拉亚,《通货膨胀与不确定性》,中国人民大学出版社,1995年。
5、袁云峰、欧阳令男,《上市公司财务失败预测》,经济理论与经济管理,2004年第9期。
6、魏成龙,《中国企业并购绩效分析》,经济学动态,2004第6期。
7、李迅雷等,《上市公司再融资及其监管研究》,国泰君安证券股份有限公司,2001年1月。
8、李晓丁、沈淑霞,《上市公司财务舞弊的经济学解释》,财会研究,2006第1期。
9、黄海沧、金晓燕,《股市“变色龙”现象的成因及对策》,财会研究,2005年第9期。
10、朱世芳、黄汉江,《关于上市公司担保圈问题的思考》,财会研究,2005年第2期。
11、陈明森,《市场进入退出与企业家竞争战略》,中国经济出版社,2001年。
12、佘廉,《企业预警管理论》,河北科学技术出版社,1999年。
13、盛洪,《自动奖惩机》,《点拨老板》,中国经济出版社,2001年。
14、周其仁,《学会在景气低迷时创新》,《点拔老板》,中国经济出版社,2001年。
15、张友堂,《财务预警系统管理研究》,中国人民大学出版社,2004年。
16、孟祥林、冯宗智、苏可,《生存还是死亡——刘永行话说'企业相对论'》,中华工商时报,1999年1月16日。
17、张先志,《财务分析》,东北财经大学出版社,2005年。
18、刘婷,《现金流量分析在我国财务分析体系中的应用研究》,中国优秀博硕士 学位论文数据库,CNKI中国知网,2003(9)。
19、中国工商银行企业破产问题课题组,《关于企业破产问题的调查报告》,经济研究,1997年第4期。
20、曹思源,《论现行破产法的修改》,开放时代,1999年第1期。
21、周成荣,《我国破产法实施的困惑及对策思考》,重庆行政,2000年第2期。
22、刘俊海,《规范破产行为,保护债权人利益》,中国法制网站,2000年1月9日。
23、佘丛国、席酉民,《我国企业预警研究理论综述》,预测,2003年第2期。
24、阮平南、王塑源,《企业经营风险及预警研究》,决策借鉴,1999年第3期。
25、胡华夏、罗险峰,《现代企业生存风险预警指标体系的理论探讨》,科学学与科学技术管理,2001年第6期。
26、韩福荣、徐艳梅,《合营企业稳定性与寿命周期》,中国发展出版社,1997年。
27、郑子云、司徒永富,《企业风险管理》,商务印书馆,2002年。
28、张玉波,《危机管理智囊》,机械工业出版社,2003年。
29、王林,《不确定性与企业的对策研究》,云南社会科学,2004年第2期。
30、徐泽水,《几类多属性决策方法研究》,东南大学2002年博士论文。
31、徐泽水,《不确定性多属性决策方法及应用》,清华大学出版社,2004年。
32、黄亦林,《不确定性与凯恩斯经济学》,经济评论,1997年第6期。
33、王健,《新凯恩斯主义经济学》,经济科学出版社,1997年。
34、马艳,《风险利益论》,复旦大学出版社,2002年。
35、王林、唐晓东,《经济波动与企业预警》,经济体制改革,2000年第2期。
36、黄淳、李彬,《不确定性经济学研究综述》,经济学动态,2004年第1期。
37、林文修,《演化式类神经网络为基底的企业危机诊断模型:智慧资本之运用》,国立中央大学资讯管理系博士论文,2000年。
38、吴晓波,《大败局》(修订版)(Ⅱ),浙江人民出版社,2007年版。
39、陈肇荣,《运用财务比率预测财务危机之实证研究》,国立政治大学企业管理研究所,1983。
40、余绪缨,《企业理财学》,辽宁人民出版社,1995年。
41、林伊华,《公司绩效不佳后采取反应动作之实证研究》,东海大学硕士论文, 2000年。
42、郑海航,《国有企业亏损研究》,经济管理出版社,1998年。
43、中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室编,《现代汉语词典》,商务印书馆,1978年。
44、周俊,《市场竞争失败的经济学透视》,中国经济出版社,2000年。
45、刘淑敏,《打破短寿宿命--冲出企业生命周期理论的迷宫》,企业管理,2005年第7期。
46、陈云正、孙福全,《企业破产与破产操作》,法律出版社,1998年。
47、陈静,《上市公司财务恶化预测的实证分析》,会计研究,1999年第4期。
48、陈晓、陈治鸿,《中国上市公司的财务困境》,中国会计与财务研究,2000年第9期。
49、高培业、张道奎,《企业失败判别模型实证研究》,统计研究,2000年第10期。
50、吴世农、卢贤义,《我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究》,经济研究,2001年第6期。
51、薛爽,《亏损上市公司实证研究》,复旦大学出版社,2005年。
52、张勇,《现代企业生命力--现代企业生命周期论》,机械工业出版社,2007年。
53、伊迪丝·彭罗斯著,赵晓译,《企业成长理论》,上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2007年。
54、何顺文、李元莎,《中国内地公司管制评析》,中国财政经济出版社,2006年。
55、张玲,《财务危机预警分析判别模型及其应用》,预测,2000年第6期。
56、高山晟著,刘振亚译,《经济学中的分析方法》,中国人民大学出版社,2001年。
57、黄少安、张岗,《中国上市公司股权融资偏好分析》,经济研究,2001年第11期。
58、张耀辉,《“壳资源”及其稀缺性》,投资研究,1998年第4期。
59、卢平和,《大股东如何掏空上市公司》,中国经济周刊,2003年第27期。
60、叶祥松,《论我国上市公司的制度性缺陷》,求是学刊,2002年7月第4期。
61、严若森,《公司隧道效应研究述评》,经济理论与经济管理,2008年第10期。
62、劳埃德.雷诺兹著,马宾译,《宏观经济学--分析和政策》,商务印书馆,1983年。
63、斯蒂芬.J.托洛维斯基著,王根蓓译,徐坚校,《宏观经济动态学方法》,上海财经大学出版社,2002年。
64、David Besanko,David Dranove＆Mark Shanley,武亚军总校译,《公司战略经济学》,北京大学出版社,1999年。
65、约瑟夫.熊彼得著,何畏等译,《经济发展理论》,商务印书馆,1990年。
66、爱迪斯著,赵睿、何燕生译,《企业生命周期》,中国社会科学出版社,1997年。
67、莱维.巴特拉著,中国国际信托投资公司译,《1990年大萧条》,上海三联书店,1988年。
68、Michael P.Niemira、Philip A.Klein著,邱东等译,《金融与经济周期预测》,中国统计出版社,1998年。
69、David Popenoe著,李强译,《社会学》,中国人民大学出版社,1999年。
70、John Eatwell等编,《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》第一卷,经济科学出版社,1992年。
71、L.J.Gitman,Basic Managerial Finance,(Third Edition),Harper Publishers,1992,p73.
72,Richard A.D'Aveni,1989,Dependability and Organization Bankruptcy:an Application of Agency and Prospect Theory,Management Science,vol.35,No.9(sep),1123.
73、Buzzell,R.D;B.T.Gale,andR.C.M.Sultan,"Market Share:AKey to Profitability",Harvard Business Review,Jan-Feb 1975,pp.97-106.
74、See T.J.Larkin and S.Larkin,"Reaching and Changing Frontline Employees',Harvard Business Review,74/3(May/June 1996):95-104.
75、M.E.Porter,"From competitive advantage to corporate strategy","Harvard Businen Review ",May-June1987,p.43-59.
76、Edward I.Altman,Corporate Financial Distress,A Wiley-Interscience Publication, John Wiley & Sons, 1983.
77、Argenti, J., Corporate Collapse: The Causes and Symptoms, McGraw-Hill, London, 1976.
78、Bill Richardson, Sonny Nwankwo, Susan Richardson, Understanding the Causes of Business Failure Crises: Generic Failure Types, Management Decision, Vol.32 No.4, 1994, P11.
79、Wilbur N. Moulton, Howard Thomas, Mark Pruett, Business Failure Pathways: Environmental Stress and Organizational ResPonse, Journal of Management, 1996, Vol.22, No.4.571-595.
80、Altaian E.L, Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 23, nr. 4, September 1968, p. 589-609.
81、Altaian E.L, Eom Y.H., Kim D. W., Failure prediction: Evidence from Korea. Journal of International Financial Management and Accounting, 1995, Vol. 6, nr. 3,230-249.
82、Altaian E.L, Haldeman RG, Narayanan P., 1977, ZETA analysis: A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 1, nr. 1, p. 29-51.
83、Blum, M., 1974,Failing Company Discriminant Analysis, Journal of Accounting Research, Spring 1974, pp1-25.
84、Boritz J.E., Kennedy D.B., Albuquerque A., 1995, Predicting corporate failure using a neural network approach. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, Vol. 4, nr.2, p. 95-111.
85、Brockman, P., Turtle, H.J., 2003. A Barrier Option Framework for Corporate Security Valuation. Journal of Financial Economics, 67,511-529.
86、Bryant, S. M. 1997, A Casa-Based Reasoning Approach to Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management 6 (1997) 195-214
87、Cox, D. R 1972, Regression Models and Life Table, Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Sera, Vol.34, pp.187-202.
88、D'Aveni, R. 1989. The aftermath of organizational decline: A longitudinal study of the strategic and managerial characteristics of declining firms. Academy of Mmzcr,gemen/ Journcd.32: 577-605.
89、D' Aveni, Richard A.1989, Dependability and organization bankruptcy: an application of agency and prospect theory, Management Science, vol.35, No.9(sep), 1120-1138
90、Daily, C.M. and Dalton, D.R. 1994, Corporate governance and the bankrupt mm, Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 15 No. 8,pp. 643-54.
91、Deakin, E. B., 1972, A Discriminant Analysis of Predictors of Business Failure, Journal of Accounting Research, Spring, pp. 167-179
92、Dimitras A., Zanakis S., Zopudinis C, 1996, A survey of business failures with an emphasis on failure prediction methods and industrial applications. European Journal of Operational Research, VoI. 90, nr. 3, p. 487-513.
93、Fama, E.F. 1980, Agency problem and the theory of the firm, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 88, pp. 288-308.
94、Fama,E.,Jensen,M.,1983.Separation of Ownership and Control.Journal ofLaw and Economics, Vo126,301 -325
95、Foreman, R.D., 2002. A Logistic Analysis of Bankruptcy within the US Local Telecommunications Industry. Journal of Economics and Business, 1-32.
96、Foster, G, 1978, Financial Statement Analysis, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall Inc.Journal of Risk and Insurance, January 2006, vol. 3,, p. 7-31.
97、Goldstein, A. S. 1988. Corporate Comeback. John Wiley&Son, 1988.
98、Greco S, Matarazzo B, Slowinski R. 1998. A new rough set approach to evaluation of bankruptcy risk. Operational Tools in the Management of Financial Risk, Zopounidis (ed.).Kluwer: Dordrecht; 121-136.
99、Hambrick, D.C.&Finkelstein, S. 1987. Managerial discretion: A bridge between polar views of organizational outcomes, pp. 369-406.
100、 Hambrick, DC&D' Aveni, R.A, 1988. Large corporate failures as downward spirals. Administrative Science Qarterly, 33:1-23.
101、Hanjo,Y.2000,Business Failure of New Firms:An Empirical Analysis Using a Multiplicative Hazards Model,International Journal of Industrial Organization,No.18,pp.557-574.
102、Hanson,G.S.&Wemerfelt,B.1989.Determinants of firm performance:The relative importance of economic and organizational factors.Strategic Management Journal.10:399- 411.
103、Healy,J.D.,1987.A Note on Multivariate CUSUM Procedures.Technometfies,29(4),409-412.
104、HoI,S,Sjur Westgaard and Wijst,Nico van derv 2002 Capital Structure and the Prediction of Bankruptcy,Euro Working Group on Financial Modeling 31st Meeting,Fall.2002 November 7-9,2002
105、Jo,Hongkyu,Ingoo Han,1996,Integration of ease-based forecasting,neural network,and discriminant analysis for bankruptcy prediction,Expert Systems with Applications,Vol.11,No.4,1996,pp.415-422.
106、John,Kose and Lemma W.Senbet,1998.Corporate Governance and Board Effec-tiveness,Journal of Banking and Finance,22:371-403.
107、Judge,W.Q.and Zeithaml,C.P.1992,Institutional and strategic choice perspectives on board involvement in the strategic decision process,Academy of Management Journal,pp.766-94.
108、Kahya,Emel and Panayiotis Theodossiou,1999,Predicting Corporate Financial Distress:A Time-Series CUSUM Methodology,Review of Quantitative finance and Accounting,13,323-346.
109、Kevie C.W.Chen,and Chi-Wen Jevons Lee(1993),Financial Ratios and Corporate Endurance:A Case of the Oil and Gas Industry,Contemporary Accounting Research,Vol.9,No.2,pp.667-694.
110、Kolodner,J.L.1993,Case-Based Reasoning.Morgan Kaufinann,San Mateo,CA(1993)
111、L.L.1996,Analysis and Prediction of Insolvency in the Property-Liability Insurance Industry:A Comparison Logit and Hazard Model,Journal of Risk and Insurance,Vol.63,pp.121-130.
112、Laitinen, E.K. 1991 .Financial Ratios and Different Failure Processes. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Sep. 1991. pp.649-73.
113、Lindsay D.H., Campbell A., 1996, A chaos approach to bankruptcy prediction. Journal of Applied Business Research, Vol. 12, nr. 4, p. 1-9.
114、Luoma M., Laitinen E.K., 1991, Survival analysis as a tool for company failure prediction. Omega International Journal of Management Science, Vol. 19, nr. 6, p. 673-678.
115、Mar-Molinero CM., Ezzamel M., 1991, Multidimensional scaling applied to corporate failure.OMEGA International Journal of Management Science, Vol. 19, nr. 4, p. 259-274.
116、McKee TE.2000,Developing a Bankruptcy Prediction Model via Rough Sets Theory International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management Int. J. Intell.Sys. Acc. Fin. Mgmt. 9,159-173 (2000).
117、Moulton, W.N, Thomas,H, Pruett, M,1996, Business Failure Path ways: Environmental Stress and Organizational Response. Journal of Management 1996, Vol. 22, No. 4.571-595.
118、Moyer R.C., 1977, Forecasting financial failure: A re-examination. Financial Management, Vol. 6, nr. 1, Spring 1977, p.11-17.
119、Mueller, D.C. 1991,Exit, Entry, and the Competitive Process. In Entry and Market Contestability: An International Comparison, p22, ed. P.A. Geroski and J. Schwalbach (Oxford UK & Cambridge USA: Blackwell)
120、Neophytou E, Charitou A, Charalambous C, 2001, Predicting orporate failure: empirical evidence for the UK. Working Paper, University of Southampton, Department of Accounting and management Science, p. 1-29.
121、Ohlson, J., 1980,Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy', Journal of Accounting Research, 18, 1980.
122、PorterM,1980,Competitive Strategy .[M].Free Press: NewYork.
123、Richard A.Daveni. 1989, management science, vol.35, No.9(sep,1989), 1120-1138.
124、Richardson, B, Nwankwo ,S. Richardson, S(1994) Understanding the Causes of Business Failure Crises: Generic Failure Types,, Management Decision, Vol. 32 No. 4,1994.
125、Russell B. Gregory-Allen and Glenn V. Henderson, Jr.(1991)A Brief Review of Catastrophe Theory and a Test in a Corporate Failure Context ,The Financial Review Vol. 26 Issue2 Page 127 May 1991.
126、Scapens R.W., Ryan RJ., Flecher L., 1981, Explaining corporate failure: A catastrophe theory approach. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Vol. 8, nr. 1, p. 1-26.
127、Schwartz Eli. 1959, Theory of the Capital Structure of the Finn.[ J ].Tine Journal ofFinance, 1959,14(1):39.
128、Skogsvik, K., 1990. Current Cost Accounting Ratios as Predictors of Business Failure: The Swedish Case. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 17 (1), 137-160.
129、Slowinski R., Zopudinis C, 1995, Application of the rough set approach to evaluation of bankruptcy risk. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, Vol. 4, p. 27-41.
130、Smith,RF., and A.H. Winakor,1935,Changes in the Financial Structure of Unsuccessful Corporations,Urbana University of Illinois,Bureau of Business Research.
131、Theodossiou, P. T. 1993, Predicting Shifts in the Time Series Process: An Application in Predicting Business Failure, Journal of the Anerican Statistical Association, Vol.88, No.422,441-449.
132、Van Home, J.C.,1987 Financial Management & Policy, 7th ed., New York: Prentice-Hall Inc.
133、Waiters, J. E., (1957) The Determination of Technical Solvency, Journal of Business, 30,30-45.
134、Ward T.J., Foster B.P., 1997, A note on selecting a response measure for financal distress. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Vol. 24, nr. 6, p. 869-879.
135、Ward, T. J. 1994. An Empirical Study of the Incremental Predictive Ability of Beaver's Native Operating Flow Measure Using Four-State Ordinal Model of Financial Distress. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 47-61.
136、Wijst, D van der. 1989. Financial Structure in Small Business: Theory, Tests and Applications. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Nolume 320 in the series Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems (Springer-Verlag, Berlin), 1989.
137、Zmijewski, M.,1984, Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models Journal of Accounting Research (Supplement),Vol .22,pp.59-82.
138、Hubert Ooghe, Soie De Prijcker,2006,Failure Processes and Causes of Company Bbankruptcy: A Typology, working paper, Vlerick Leuven Gent management school.
139、Thomas Astebro, Joachim K.Winter 2002,More Than a Dummy: The Probability of Failure, Survival and Acquisition of Firms in Financial Distress, working paper, University of Waterloo.
140、Joseph P.H. Fan, Jun Huang, Ning Zhu,2007, Fianancial Distress without Bankruptcy: The Case of China, working paper, Chinese University of Hong Kong.
141、Grossman, S. J. & Hart, O. D. Takeover bids, the free-rider problem, and the theory of the Corporation [J]. Bell Journal of Economics, 1980,11 (1): 42-66.
142、Shleifer, A. & Vishny, R. W. Large Shareholders and Corporate Control . The Journal of Political Economy, 1986,94 (3): 461-489.
143、Shleifer, A. & Vishny, R. W. A survey of corporate governance . The Journal of Finance, 1997, 52 (2): 737-783.
144、La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A. & Vishny, R. Investor protection and corporate governance . Journal of Financial Economics, 2000, 58: 3-27.
145、Elloumi, F. & Gueyte, JP. Financial distress and corporate governance: an empirical analysis [J]. Corporate Governance, 2001,1(1): 15-23.
146、Parker, S., Gary, F. P. & Howard, F. T. Corporate governance and corporate failure: a survival analysis. Corporate Governance, 2002,2 (2): 4-12.
147、Lee, TS. & Yeh, YH. Corporate governance and financial distress: evidence from Taiwan. Corporate Governance, 2004,12(3): 378-388.
148、Xu, XN. & Wang, Y. Ownership structure, corporate governance, and firm's performance. 1997, Word Bank working paper.
149、Anderson, J. H., Lee, Y. & Murrell, P. Competition and privatization amidst weak institutions: Evidence for Mongolia. Economic Inquiry, 2000,38 (4): 527-549.
150、Romano, R. Less is more: Making institutional investor activism a valuable mechanism of corporate governance . Yale Journal on Regulation, 2001, 18 (2): 174-251.
151、 Tadesse, S. The allocation and monitoring role of capital markets: Theory and international evidence. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2004,39.
152、Lin, C. Corporatisation and corporate governance in China's economic transition [J], Economics of Planning, 2001,34: 5-35.
153、ACCA Members Supplement July/August 2005. "Planning is essential for business Success".
154、Stewart Hamilton, Alicia Micklethwait, Greed and Corporate Failure: The Lessons from Recent Disasters By Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006.
155、David Knights, Majella O'Leary, Reflecting on corporate scandals: the failure of ethical leadership, Business Ethics, 2005 Vol.14(No.4).
156、Lachlan Colquhoun, Finding the cause of corporate failure, AGSM Management ISSUE 3,2005.
157、Meredith F. Small,Lessons in Corporate Failure From a 5th-Grader Live Science's Human Nature Columnist, 2008 .
158、 Darrell Duffie, Ke Wang, Susan Athey, Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction with Stochastic Covariates." Working Paper, Stanford Graduate School of Business (2004).
159、Sypros Makridakis, What can we learn from corporate failure?, 1991, Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.
160、Athanasios Tsagkanos, Antonios Georgopoulos, Corporate failure risk assessment of Greek companies International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management 2008 - Vol. 9, No.1/2 pp. 5-14.