中国大中城市房地产泡沫的检验及成因分析
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摘要
近年来,我国的房地产业飞速发展,促进了国民经济的增长,改善了人民群众的居住条件。但是,目前我国的房地产价格特别是大中城市房地产价格上涨过快,引发了关于是否存在房地产泡沫的争论。房地产业不仅涉及到国民经济的发展和人民群众的利益,而且关系到金融业的安危,如果房地产业存在泡沫,将可能对经济造成负面的影响,严重时甚至可能导致金融危机。因此,对于房地产泡沫的研究既具有深远的理论意义,也具有迫切的现实意义。本文旨在对影响房地产市场需求的因素进行分析,对房地产泡沫进行检验,对房地产泡沫的产生原因进行研究,并提供相应的政策建议。
论文研究了房地产泡沫的定义及检验方法。在纵览了国内外现有的相关文献的基础上,论文指出了现有研究中存在的不足,归纳和总结了现有理论对泡沫的定义以及理性预期理论下的理性泡沫模型。在此基础上,论文分析了理性预期研究框架的局限性,讨论了包括时尚模型和噪音交易者模型在内的有限理性(非理性)泡沫模型。论文定义了房地产泡沫,阐述了房地产泡沫的危害,并概括了房地产泡沫的检验方法。
论文在一般的房地产需求模型的基础上,加入正反馈行为因素,构建用于泡沫检验的房地产需求模型,并对上海市住宅市场进行了实证分析。论文在分析影响房地产供需因素的基础上,建立包含自住成本、人均可支配收入、个人住房贷款、正反馈行为等变量的房地产市场需求回归模型,运用2003年1月到2006年5月的月度数据,以上海市住宅市场为例进行实证分析,发现除了自住成本、人均可支配收入、个人住房贷款等变量影响房地产市场需求以外,正反馈行为也对房地产需求产生影响。正反馈行为的存在说明了上海市住宅市场中房地产泡沫的存在,从而从需求角度进行了房地产泡沫的检验。
论文运用空间统计分析和空间计量理论,构建基于面板数据的空间计量模型,对我国大中城市的房地产泡沫进行了检验。一般情况下,认为适应性预期对房地产价格的影响为房地产泡沫,因此可以利用基本的适应性预期模型对我国各大中城市的面板数据进行房地产泡沫检验。然而,空间相关的存在使得在对我国大中城市房地产泡沫进行检验的时候需要考虑空间地理因素的影响。第四章运用空间统计分析方法对各大中城市房地产价格数据做全局空间自相关Moran’s I检验,并绘制局域自相关LISA分布图,以分析空间自相关的影响。在此基础上,论文运用空间计量经济学理论,在基本适应性预期模型的基础上,建立基于面板数据的空间计量模型包括空间滞后与空间误差模型,利用2001-2006的面板数据,对我国大中城市进行了房地产泡沫检验。空间计量回归结果表明了我国大中城市存在着房地产泡沫。
论文探讨了房地产泡沫的产生原因,通过引入进化博弈理论,对消费者的有限理性对于房地产泡沫的影响进行分析。通过分析得出,在宏观经济和房地产制度的影响下,消费者在有限理性心理的驱使下,预期和正反馈行为是导致房地产泡沫产生的直接原因。为了进一步探究房地产泡沫的产生原因,第五章引入了进化博弈论进行研究,建立了消费者之间的博弈模型,导出了复制动态方程,得到了进化稳定策略。分析表明,有限理性的消费者之间的相互作用可能导致房地产泡沫的产生。在对房地产泡沫的产生原因进行分析的基础上,论文从增加土地供应、征收物业税、控制房地产信贷等六方面提出了相关的政策建议。
Recent years, real estate industry experiences prosperity, increasing the whole economy and improving individual living situations in China. But real estate prices of metropolitans raise too much, which leads to an issue of real estate bubbles. Real estate industry is concerned with the whole economy, individual welfare and the security of finance. If there are real estate bubbles, the whole economy will be damaged and financial crises may occur. So the research of real estate bubble has theoretical and practical significances. This article attempts to analyze real estate demand, to set up a model to test real estate bubbles, to research on the causality of real estate bubbles and to give policy implications.
This article has researched real estate bubbles’definition and test methods. Literatures are reviewed and insufficient sections are pointed out. This article has a review of bubbles definitions and has an analysis of rational bubble theory within rational expectation’s frame. The article also discusses rational bubble theory’s insufficiency and has a research of bounded rational bubble models including fads model and noise trader model. Then real estate bubbles are defined, real bubbles’harm are represented and real estate bubbles’test methods are summarized
This article has set up a model and makes an empirical analysis to Shanghai housing market to test real estate bubbles by adding positive feedback variable to a general demand model. An analysis of real estate supply and demand has to be made. A real estate demand regression model, including variants of user’s cost, credit, positive feedback behavior etc., is set up and an empirical analysis is made to Shanghai housing market. The results show that not only user’s cost, credit etc., but also positive feedback behavior impact real estate demand. The existence of positive feedback behavior implies real estate bubbles occur. This is a test to real estate bubbles from demand side.
This article has built spatial economic models for panel data to test real estate bubbles of metropolitans in China, using spatial statistics analysis method and spatial economics theory. Adaptive expectation’s enfluence to price is considered as bubbles. So trational Adaptive expectation models could be used to test real estate bubbles with the use of panel data of metropolitans. But spatial dependence makes spatial and geographic factors have to be taken into account. Spatial autocorrelation Moran’s I index is tested, and local spatial autocorrelation LISA is drawed. Then Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model are built within the frame of spatial econometrics. Spatial Error Model is the appropriate model. The results show the existence of real estate bubbles in metropolitans of China.
This article has a study of real estate bubbles’causality and has an analysis of house buyer’s bouned rationality’s enfluence to real estate bubbles. The research finds on the backround of marcoeconomic and real estate institutions, bouned rational house buyers’positive feedback behavior and expectation are direct factors to cause real estate bubbles. To research this bounded rationality, Evolutionary Game Theory is introduced.Then Replicator Dynamics Equation is deduced and Evolutionary Stable Strategy is consequently gained. The result shows that bounded rational house buyers’interaction with each other could lead to real estate bubbles. After the analysis of causality of real estate bubbles, policy implications are suggested from six aspects such as increasing land supply, collecting property tax, controlling real estate credit, etc.
论文研究了房地产泡沫的定义及检验方法。在纵览了国内外现有的相关文献的基础上,论文指出了现有研究中存在的不足,归纳和总结了现有理论对泡沫的定义以及理性预期理论下的理性泡沫模型。在此基础上,论文分析了理性预期研究框架的局限性,讨论了包括时尚模型和噪音交易者模型在内的有限理性(非理性)泡沫模型。论文定义了房地产泡沫,阐述了房地产泡沫的危害,并概括了房地产泡沫的检验方法。
论文在一般的房地产需求模型的基础上,加入正反馈行为因素,构建用于泡沫检验的房地产需求模型,并对上海市住宅市场进行了实证分析。论文在分析影响房地产供需因素的基础上,建立包含自住成本、人均可支配收入、个人住房贷款、正反馈行为等变量的房地产市场需求回归模型,运用2003年1月到2006年5月的月度数据,以上海市住宅市场为例进行实证分析,发现除了自住成本、人均可支配收入、个人住房贷款等变量影响房地产市场需求以外,正反馈行为也对房地产需求产生影响。正反馈行为的存在说明了上海市住宅市场中房地产泡沫的存在,从而从需求角度进行了房地产泡沫的检验。
论文运用空间统计分析和空间计量理论,构建基于面板数据的空间计量模型,对我国大中城市的房地产泡沫进行了检验。一般情况下,认为适应性预期对房地产价格的影响为房地产泡沫,因此可以利用基本的适应性预期模型对我国各大中城市的面板数据进行房地产泡沫检验。然而,空间相关的存在使得在对我国大中城市房地产泡沫进行检验的时候需要考虑空间地理因素的影响。第四章运用空间统计分析方法对各大中城市房地产价格数据做全局空间自相关Moran’s I检验,并绘制局域自相关LISA分布图,以分析空间自相关的影响。在此基础上,论文运用空间计量经济学理论,在基本适应性预期模型的基础上,建立基于面板数据的空间计量模型包括空间滞后与空间误差模型,利用2001-2006的面板数据,对我国大中城市进行了房地产泡沫检验。空间计量回归结果表明了我国大中城市存在着房地产泡沫。
论文探讨了房地产泡沫的产生原因,通过引入进化博弈理论,对消费者的有限理性对于房地产泡沫的影响进行分析。通过分析得出,在宏观经济和房地产制度的影响下,消费者在有限理性心理的驱使下,预期和正反馈行为是导致房地产泡沫产生的直接原因。为了进一步探究房地产泡沫的产生原因,第五章引入了进化博弈论进行研究,建立了消费者之间的博弈模型,导出了复制动态方程,得到了进化稳定策略。分析表明,有限理性的消费者之间的相互作用可能导致房地产泡沫的产生。在对房地产泡沫的产生原因进行分析的基础上,论文从增加土地供应、征收物业税、控制房地产信贷等六方面提出了相关的政策建议。
Recent years, real estate industry experiences prosperity, increasing the whole economy and improving individual living situations in China. But real estate prices of metropolitans raise too much, which leads to an issue of real estate bubbles. Real estate industry is concerned with the whole economy, individual welfare and the security of finance. If there are real estate bubbles, the whole economy will be damaged and financial crises may occur. So the research of real estate bubble has theoretical and practical significances. This article attempts to analyze real estate demand, to set up a model to test real estate bubbles, to research on the causality of real estate bubbles and to give policy implications.
This article has researched real estate bubbles’definition and test methods. Literatures are reviewed and insufficient sections are pointed out. This article has a review of bubbles definitions and has an analysis of rational bubble theory within rational expectation’s frame. The article also discusses rational bubble theory’s insufficiency and has a research of bounded rational bubble models including fads model and noise trader model. Then real estate bubbles are defined, real bubbles’harm are represented and real estate bubbles’test methods are summarized
This article has set up a model and makes an empirical analysis to Shanghai housing market to test real estate bubbles by adding positive feedback variable to a general demand model. An analysis of real estate supply and demand has to be made. A real estate demand regression model, including variants of user’s cost, credit, positive feedback behavior etc., is set up and an empirical analysis is made to Shanghai housing market. The results show that not only user’s cost, credit etc., but also positive feedback behavior impact real estate demand. The existence of positive feedback behavior implies real estate bubbles occur. This is a test to real estate bubbles from demand side.
This article has built spatial economic models for panel data to test real estate bubbles of metropolitans in China, using spatial statistics analysis method and spatial economics theory. Adaptive expectation’s enfluence to price is considered as bubbles. So trational Adaptive expectation models could be used to test real estate bubbles with the use of panel data of metropolitans. But spatial dependence makes spatial and geographic factors have to be taken into account. Spatial autocorrelation Moran’s I index is tested, and local spatial autocorrelation LISA is drawed. Then Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model are built within the frame of spatial econometrics. Spatial Error Model is the appropriate model. The results show the existence of real estate bubbles in metropolitans of China.
This article has a study of real estate bubbles’causality and has an analysis of house buyer’s bouned rationality’s enfluence to real estate bubbles. The research finds on the backround of marcoeconomic and real estate institutions, bouned rational house buyers’positive feedback behavior and expectation are direct factors to cause real estate bubbles. To research this bounded rationality, Evolutionary Game Theory is introduced.Then Replicator Dynamics Equation is deduced and Evolutionary Stable Strategy is consequently gained. The result shows that bounded rational house buyers’interaction with each other could lead to real estate bubbles. After the analysis of causality of real estate bubbles, policy implications are suggested from six aspects such as increasing land supply, collecting property tax, controlling real estate credit, etc.
引文
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