财产保险产品市场需求的理论及实证研究
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摘要
财产保险对于社会稳定,提高国家的社会福利水平以及促进地区的经济发展,都起着至关重要的作用。随着我国财产保险市场的开放,山东省财产保险市场快速成长,经营主体数量迅速增加,竞争日趋激烈。自山东省恢复财产保险业务以来,财产保费收入呈现出每年递增的局面,从1987年的2.3亿元增长到2008年的164.2亿元。但山东省的财产保险深度和密度却相对较低,2008年山东省的财产保险深度和保险密度分别为0.44和144.33元/人,在全国处于中等偏下水平。因此,如何把握山东省财产保险需求的特点,开发出有竞争力的产品以赢得市场,提高山东省的财产保险需求水平,对各财产公司来说是一个十分紧迫的问题。另外,对政府监管机构来说,如何最大限度地刺激财产保险需求,保障财产保险市场的稳定健康发展,也是一个值得研究的问题。
本文以山东省财产保险市场作为研究对象,分析山东省财产保险需求的状况,并对山东省财产保险市场的供给状况进行分析和评价,进而提出促进财产保险供需均衡的建议,为保险公司开发财产保险产品和内部管理等方面以及相关保险监管部门的政策制定提供参考性意见。
本文的研究建立在财产保险需求经济理论之上,通过对财产保险产品和财产保险需求的理论阐述,运用自然对数多元线性回归模型和ARMA时间序列模型来研究山东省财产保险需求状况,从中发现了各因素对财产保险需求的影响方式和影响程度的大小,同时探究了山东省财产保险需求的时间序列动态特征和季节波动规律。另外,本文还运用多元统计中聚类分析的方法对山东省财产保险需求水平与国内其他省份进行了分类和比较,并在此基础上对山东省财产保险市场在国内所处的地位进行了科学的评价。接着,本文对山东省财产保险市场供给状况进行了分析和评价。最后,在前面实证分析结论的基础上,对财产保险公司提出了有关产品开发和内部管理等方面的意见,对保险监管机构提出了监管方面的政策建议。
Property insurance plays an very important role for social stability and raising the country's social welfare level and also promoting regional economic development. With the opening of China's property insurance market, the property insurance market in Shandong province of which the competiton becomes increasingly fierce has a rapid growth, and the number of its business entities is also increasing. Since the reinstatement of the property insurance business in shandong province, the insurance premium income is from 2.3 billion yuan in 1987 to 16.42 billion yuan in 2008. However, the depth and desity of property insurance in Shandong province which is 0.44 and 144.33 yuan respectively is relatively low and at the national level they are in the lower middle-class. Therefore, how to seize the characteristics of the demand on the property insurance as well as improving the level of the demand for property insurance on the property insurance are the urgent issues. In addition, how to maximize the demand of property insurance and maintain the market stable is also worthy of study to the government regulatory bodies.
This paper with the object of the property insurance market in Shandong province analysis the situation of the demand for property insurance as well as the supply and presents the proposals of a balanced supply and demand for the property insurance development so as to provide reference proposals for the relevant insurance regulatory authorities.
The study based on the economic demand theory of the property insurance, through the theoretical explanations of property insurance products, uses the natural logarithm of multiple linear regression model and ARMA time series model to study the demand for property insurance in Shandong province, from which we could find the various demand factors and magnitude of the impact and also the time series and seasonal fluctuation of the dynamic characteristics of the demand for property insurance. In additon, the paper uses multivariate statistical method of cluster to analyse the level of demand for property insurance in Shandong province. Then the paper gives the analysis and evaluation on the supply situation of the property insurance market in Shandong province. Finally, based on the previous empirical analysis, the paper gives the advice to the property insurance company on product development and internal management, and policy recommendations to the insurance regulatory agencies.
本文以山东省财产保险市场作为研究对象,分析山东省财产保险需求的状况,并对山东省财产保险市场的供给状况进行分析和评价,进而提出促进财产保险供需均衡的建议,为保险公司开发财产保险产品和内部管理等方面以及相关保险监管部门的政策制定提供参考性意见。
本文的研究建立在财产保险需求经济理论之上,通过对财产保险产品和财产保险需求的理论阐述,运用自然对数多元线性回归模型和ARMA时间序列模型来研究山东省财产保险需求状况,从中发现了各因素对财产保险需求的影响方式和影响程度的大小,同时探究了山东省财产保险需求的时间序列动态特征和季节波动规律。另外,本文还运用多元统计中聚类分析的方法对山东省财产保险需求水平与国内其他省份进行了分类和比较,并在此基础上对山东省财产保险市场在国内所处的地位进行了科学的评价。接着,本文对山东省财产保险市场供给状况进行了分析和评价。最后,在前面实证分析结论的基础上,对财产保险公司提出了有关产品开发和内部管理等方面的意见,对保险监管机构提出了监管方面的政策建议。
Property insurance plays an very important role for social stability and raising the country's social welfare level and also promoting regional economic development. With the opening of China's property insurance market, the property insurance market in Shandong province of which the competiton becomes increasingly fierce has a rapid growth, and the number of its business entities is also increasing. Since the reinstatement of the property insurance business in shandong province, the insurance premium income is from 2.3 billion yuan in 1987 to 16.42 billion yuan in 2008. However, the depth and desity of property insurance in Shandong province which is 0.44 and 144.33 yuan respectively is relatively low and at the national level they are in the lower middle-class. Therefore, how to seize the characteristics of the demand on the property insurance as well as improving the level of the demand for property insurance on the property insurance are the urgent issues. In addition, how to maximize the demand of property insurance and maintain the market stable is also worthy of study to the government regulatory bodies.
This paper with the object of the property insurance market in Shandong province analysis the situation of the demand for property insurance as well as the supply and presents the proposals of a balanced supply and demand for the property insurance development so as to provide reference proposals for the relevant insurance regulatory authorities.
The study based on the economic demand theory of the property insurance, through the theoretical explanations of property insurance products, uses the natural logarithm of multiple linear regression model and ARMA time series model to study the demand for property insurance in Shandong province, from which we could find the various demand factors and magnitude of the impact and also the time series and seasonal fluctuation of the dynamic characteristics of the demand for property insurance. In additon, the paper uses multivariate statistical method of cluster to analyse the level of demand for property insurance in Shandong province. Then the paper gives the analysis and evaluation on the supply situation of the property insurance market in Shandong province. Finally, based on the previous empirical analysis, the paper gives the advice to the property insurance company on product development and internal management, and policy recommendations to the insurance regulatory agencies.
引文
[1]赵桂芹.非寿险需求、经济发展与损失可能性：来自1997-2003年31个省(市)的实证分析[J].预测,2006(3)：48-54.
[2]Beenstock, M.G.Dickinson, and S. K hajuria. The Relationship Between Property-liability Insurance Premiums and Income:An Internationl, Analysis[J], Journal of Risk and Insurance,1988,55(2):259-272.
[3]Outreville, J. F.. The Economic Significance of Insurance Markets in Developing Countries[J]. Journal of Risk and Insurance,1990,57(3):487-498
[4]Browne. M. J, J. M. Chung and E. W. Frees,2000, International Property-Liability Insurance Consumption, Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol.67, No.1,73-90.
[5]Esho, N.A.Kirievsky, D.Ward and R.Zurbruegg,2004, Law and the Determinants of Property-Casualty Insurance, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol.71, No.2,265-283.
[6]“保险业发展研究”课题组.中国保险业的发展[M].中国金融出版社,1990.12
[7]李炳圭.论财产保险需求者的偏好对保险需求的影响[J].中国保险管理干部学院学报2000(2)：11-12.
[8]夏才生.论非寿险需求与有效供给[J].保险研究,(12)：6-8.
[9]林宝清,洪锡熙,吴江鸣.我国财产保险需求收入弹性系数实证分析[J].金融研究,2004(7)：90-99.
[10]赵桂芹.非寿险需求、经济发展与损失可能性：来自1997-2003年31个省(市)的实证分析[J].预测,2006(3)：48-54.
[11]钱珍.我国非寿险需求影响因素的实证分析[J].统计教育,2006(8)：27-29.
[12]刘荣茂,郑婷婷.影响财产保险需求因素的实证分析——以江苏财产保险市场为例[J].湖南财经高等专科学校学报,2007(12)：107-109.
[13]付菊.财产保险[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2005：8-14.
[14]陈伊维.财产保险[M].天津：南开大学出版社,2005：9-15.
[15]王国军.保险经济学[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2006：55-62.
[16]马歇尔著,朱志泰译.经济学原理(上卷)[M].商务印书馆,1981.6
[17]张庆洪.保险经济学导论[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2004.
[18]马斯洛著,许金声等译.动机与人格[M].华夏出版社,1987：47.
[19]张洪涛.保险经济学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006：13.
[20]李炳圭.论财产保险需求者的偏好对保险需求的影响[J].中国保险管理干部学院学报2000(2)：11-12.
[21]Browne. M. J, J. M. Chung and E. W. Frees,2000, International Property-Liability Insurance Consumption, Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol.67, No.1,73-90.
[22]Skipper, Harold D., Jr. Protectionism in the Provision of International Insurance Services[J]. Journa of Risk and Insurance,1987,61:55-85.
[23]赵桂芹.非寿险需求、经济发展与损失可能性：来自1997-2003年31个省(市)的实证分析[J].预测,2006(3)：48-54.
[24]陈朝先.人身保险[M].中国金融出版社,1998.6.
[25]易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用[M].中国统计出版社,2002.
[26]李子奈.计量经济学[M].高等教育出版社,2000.
[27]李子奈,潘文卿.计量经济学[M].高等教育出版社,2005.4.
[28]孙敬水.计量经济学教程[M].清华大学出版社、北京交通大学出版社,2005.8.
[29]余建英等.数据统计分析与SPSS应用[M].北京：人民邮电出版社,2003.
[30]陈平雁,黄浙明SPSS 10.0统计软件应用教程[M].人民军医出版社,2002.4.
[31]姬便便.中国财产保险公司竞争力研究[D].西北农业科技大学博士论文,2004.
[32]叶浩然.中国保险市场需求的实证分析[D].厦门大学硕士论文,2007：39-40
[33]栾存存.我国保险业增长分析[J].经济研究,2004,(1)：25-32.
[34]曹乾,何建敏.保险增长与经济增长的互动关系：理论假说与实证研究[J],上海金融,2006(3)：14-16.
[35]郭春芬.江苏省财产保险市场绩效与政府监管研究[D].同济大学硕士论文,2006.
[36]张连勤.青岛市人身保险市场需求实证研究[D].中国海洋大学硕士论文,2008.
[37]王磊.北京市人身保险产品市场需求的理论及实证分析[D].首都经济贸易大学.2006.
[38]http://www.stats-sd.gov.cn/2007/default_4.asp山东省统计信息网
[39]http://www.stats-qd.gov.cn/statsqd/index/index.shtml青岛统计信息网
[40]http://www.circ.gov.cn/web/site30/中国保监会山东监管局
[41]http://www.sdbx.org/山东保险信息网
[2]Beenstock, M.G.Dickinson, and S. K hajuria. The Relationship Between Property-liability Insurance Premiums and Income:An Internationl, Analysis[J], Journal of Risk and Insurance,1988,55(2):259-272.
[3]Outreville, J. F.. The Economic Significance of Insurance Markets in Developing Countries[J]. Journal of Risk and Insurance,1990,57(3):487-498
[4]Browne. M. J, J. M. Chung and E. W. Frees,2000, International Property-Liability Insurance Consumption, Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol.67, No.1,73-90.
[5]Esho, N.A.Kirievsky, D.Ward and R.Zurbruegg,2004, Law and the Determinants of Property-Casualty Insurance, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol.71, No.2,265-283.
[6]“保险业发展研究”课题组.中国保险业的发展[M].中国金融出版社,1990.12
[7]李炳圭.论财产保险需求者的偏好对保险需求的影响[J].中国保险管理干部学院学报2000(2)：11-12.
[8]夏才生.论非寿险需求与有效供给[J].保险研究,(12)：6-8.
[9]林宝清,洪锡熙,吴江鸣.我国财产保险需求收入弹性系数实证分析[J].金融研究,2004(7)：90-99.
[10]赵桂芹.非寿险需求、经济发展与损失可能性：来自1997-2003年31个省(市)的实证分析[J].预测,2006(3)：48-54.
[11]钱珍.我国非寿险需求影响因素的实证分析[J].统计教育,2006(8)：27-29.
[12]刘荣茂,郑婷婷.影响财产保险需求因素的实证分析——以江苏财产保险市场为例[J].湖南财经高等专科学校学报,2007(12)：107-109.
[13]付菊.财产保险[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2005：8-14.
[14]陈伊维.财产保险[M].天津：南开大学出版社,2005：9-15.
[15]王国军.保险经济学[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2006：55-62.
[16]马歇尔著,朱志泰译.经济学原理(上卷)[M].商务印书馆,1981.6
[17]张庆洪.保险经济学导论[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2004.
[18]马斯洛著,许金声等译.动机与人格[M].华夏出版社,1987：47.
[19]张洪涛.保险经济学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006：13.
[20]李炳圭.论财产保险需求者的偏好对保险需求的影响[J].中国保险管理干部学院学报2000(2)：11-12.
[21]Browne. M. J, J. M. Chung and E. W. Frees,2000, International Property-Liability Insurance Consumption, Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol.67, No.1,73-90.
[22]Skipper, Harold D., Jr. Protectionism in the Provision of International Insurance Services[J]. Journa of Risk and Insurance,1987,61:55-85.
[23]赵桂芹.非寿险需求、经济发展与损失可能性：来自1997-2003年31个省(市)的实证分析[J].预测,2006(3)：48-54.
[24]陈朝先.人身保险[M].中国金融出版社,1998.6.
[25]易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用[M].中国统计出版社,2002.
[26]李子奈.计量经济学[M].高等教育出版社,2000.
[27]李子奈,潘文卿.计量经济学[M].高等教育出版社,2005.4.
[28]孙敬水.计量经济学教程[M].清华大学出版社、北京交通大学出版社,2005.8.
[29]余建英等.数据统计分析与SPSS应用[M].北京：人民邮电出版社,2003.
[30]陈平雁,黄浙明SPSS 10.0统计软件应用教程[M].人民军医出版社,2002.4.
[31]姬便便.中国财产保险公司竞争力研究[D].西北农业科技大学博士论文,2004.
[32]叶浩然.中国保险市场需求的实证分析[D].厦门大学硕士论文,2007：39-40
[33]栾存存.我国保险业增长分析[J].经济研究,2004,(1)：25-32.
[34]曹乾,何建敏.保险增长与经济增长的互动关系：理论假说与实证研究[J],上海金融,2006(3)：14-16.
[35]郭春芬.江苏省财产保险市场绩效与政府监管研究[D].同济大学硕士论文,2006.
[36]张连勤.青岛市人身保险市场需求实证研究[D].中国海洋大学硕士论文,2008.
[37]王磊.北京市人身保险产品市场需求的理论及实证分析[D].首都经济贸易大学.2006.
[38]http://www.stats-sd.gov.cn/2007/default_4.asp山东省统计信息网
[39]http://www.stats-qd.gov.cn/statsqd/index/index.shtml青岛统计信息网
[40]http://www.circ.gov.cn/web/site30/中国保监会山东监管局
[41]http://www.sdbx.org/山东保险信息网