中国能源消费对工业品出厂价冲击的实证分析
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摘要
我国自改革开放以来,在经济保持高速增长的同时,我国经济增长已表现出对能源的高消费和强依赖的特点,大多数工业行业对能源的依赖程度不断提高,能源对我国工业经济发展的制约作用开始显现,并日渐突出,如何正确理解能源消费与工业行业的关系,并以此来分析能源消费对工业品价格冲击力的作用机制,从而为降低能耗成本,提高工业部门产业的国际竞争力提高政策思路具有重要的现实意义。这不仅决定着我国短期和中长期能源发展战略的制定,还关系着未来产业结构的调整方向和整个国家的经济发展质量。
正是基于于以上考虑,本文在系统综述了国内外关于能源消费与经济增长之间关系研究现状的基础之上,立足于我国工业行业,结合我国工业行业的能源消费变动趋势和基本特征,搜集整理影响我国工业品出厂价格的相关数据,建立工业品出厂价格指数与能源消费之间的数学模型,并使用相关软件对其进行实证分析。
考虑到是为工业行业提高产业竞争力提供政策思路,本文运用逐步回归分方法对主要影响因素进行提取,结果发现能源消费量、能源价格指数、能源利用效率和原油价格是影响我国工业品出厂价格指数的主要因素。然后,运用Eviews5.0专业软件对我国工业品出厂价格指数影响因素进行回归模型分析,结果表明：能源消费量、能源价格指数和原油价格与工业品出厂价格指数具有正相关关系,而能源利用效率与工业品出厂价格指数具有负相关关系。因此得出可以利用现代先进技术手段降低能源消费量,相应的提高能源利用效率,减少对能源的依赖度来降低工业行业工业品生产成本,从而为提高工业行业产业竞争力提供政策思路。
在对整个工业行业进行实证分析的基础之上,本文选取工业部门中的化学工业、文教体育品制造业、纺织业、造纸及制品业、电力工业、食品工业、建筑工业、皮革工业这八个具有代表性的行业,对这八个行业的能源消费对工业品出厂价格影响和排名度进行简单的分析,并选取工业品出厂价格指数、能源消费量、能源利用效率和能源价格指数作为考察因素对这八个行业进行产业竞争力的因子实证分析。
最后,基于实证分析的结果,本文在提出结论的同时,对我国能源消费的相关环节提出了建议,相信对我国制定工业结构调整和长期能源战略以及提高工业行业产业竞争力提供一些有益的参考意见和启示。
Since reform and opening-up, China has high speed growth in economic, But on the other hand, the China's current economic has shown that economic growth depend on high energy consumption, most of the industry improvement has more and more depend on energy consumption. Therefore, the restriction brought by the energy products to economy development emerged and becomes more and more obvious. How to correctly deal with relationship between energy and industry economy, and analysis the impact about energy consumption of industry economy to industry commodity prices, and reduce industry economy energy consumption cost, improve industry department international competitiveness which have important practical significance on policy ideas. This determines not only the establishment of the short term, medium and long-term energy development strategy in China but also relates to the future orientation of industry structure and the quality of economy development of the whole country.
Based on above concerns, we systematically recall the study of the relationship between the energy consumption and economic growth at home and abroad. The article is started with the industry sectors, on the basis of the changing tendency and basic characteristics of energy consumption in the main areas in industry sector of China. Then, we collect the data of influencing factors of Producer's Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI).
Based on above concerns and empirical analysis the all industry economic, the paper extract the main factors using the method of stepwise regression analysis. The results indicate that energy consumption, energy price index, energy efficiency and crude oil price are the four main influencing factors of the Producer's Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI). Subsequently, we make a model of influencing factors Producer's Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI), by virtue of Eviews5.0. The results show that there has positive correlation between the energy consumption, energy price index, crude oil price and Producer's Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI), however, there has negative correlation between energy efficiency and Producer's Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI). So we can reduce the production cost of industry commodity by using modern advanced techniques to reduce energy consumption, improve energy efficiency, and provide policy ideas for industry department about how to improve the competitiveness.
Then select eight typical industries from the industry, they are the Chemical industry, Cultural sports product manufacturing, textile industry, Paper & Paper Products, electric power industry, food industry, architectural industry, leather industry. We make simple analysis that the eight industries energy consumption impact on the Producer's Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI). And for the eight typical industries competitiveness with factors analysis, and the factors are the Producer's Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI), energy consumption, energy price index and energy efficiency.
In conclusion, based on the outcome of demonstration and analysis, the article delivers suggestions on energy consumption in China, which are believed to be positive reference and inspiration for China to make future strategies in industrial structure adjustment and long-term energy strategy, as well as improve the industry competitiveness in China.
正是基于于以上考虑,本文在系统综述了国内外关于能源消费与经济增长之间关系研究现状的基础之上,立足于我国工业行业,结合我国工业行业的能源消费变动趋势和基本特征,搜集整理影响我国工业品出厂价格的相关数据,建立工业品出厂价格指数与能源消费之间的数学模型,并使用相关软件对其进行实证分析。
考虑到是为工业行业提高产业竞争力提供政策思路,本文运用逐步回归分方法对主要影响因素进行提取,结果发现能源消费量、能源价格指数、能源利用效率和原油价格是影响我国工业品出厂价格指数的主要因素。然后,运用Eviews5.0专业软件对我国工业品出厂价格指数影响因素进行回归模型分析,结果表明：能源消费量、能源价格指数和原油价格与工业品出厂价格指数具有正相关关系,而能源利用效率与工业品出厂价格指数具有负相关关系。因此得出可以利用现代先进技术手段降低能源消费量,相应的提高能源利用效率,减少对能源的依赖度来降低工业行业工业品生产成本,从而为提高工业行业产业竞争力提供政策思路。
在对整个工业行业进行实证分析的基础之上,本文选取工业部门中的化学工业、文教体育品制造业、纺织业、造纸及制品业、电力工业、食品工业、建筑工业、皮革工业这八个具有代表性的行业,对这八个行业的能源消费对工业品出厂价格影响和排名度进行简单的分析,并选取工业品出厂价格指数、能源消费量、能源利用效率和能源价格指数作为考察因素对这八个行业进行产业竞争力的因子实证分析。
最后,基于实证分析的结果,本文在提出结论的同时,对我国能源消费的相关环节提出了建议,相信对我国制定工业结构调整和长期能源战略以及提高工业行业产业竞争力提供一些有益的参考意见和启示。
Since reform and opening-up, China has high speed growth in economic, But on the other hand, the China's current economic has shown that economic growth depend on high energy consumption, most of the industry improvement has more and more depend on energy consumption. Therefore, the restriction brought by the energy products to economy development emerged and becomes more and more obvious. How to correctly deal with relationship between energy and industry economy, and analysis the impact about energy consumption of industry economy to industry commodity prices, and reduce industry economy energy consumption cost, improve industry department international competitiveness which have important practical significance on policy ideas. This determines not only the establishment of the short term, medium and long-term energy development strategy in China but also relates to the future orientation of industry structure and the quality of economy development of the whole country.
Based on above concerns, we systematically recall the study of the relationship between the energy consumption and economic growth at home and abroad. The article is started with the industry sectors, on the basis of the changing tendency and basic characteristics of energy consumption in the main areas in industry sector of China. Then, we collect the data of influencing factors of Producer's Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI).
Based on above concerns and empirical analysis the all industry economic, the paper extract the main factors using the method of stepwise regression analysis. The results indicate that energy consumption, energy price index, energy efficiency and crude oil price are the four main influencing factors of the Producer's Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI). Subsequently, we make a model of influencing factors Producer's Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI), by virtue of Eviews5.0. The results show that there has positive correlation between the energy consumption, energy price index, crude oil price and Producer's Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI), however, there has negative correlation between energy efficiency and Producer's Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI). So we can reduce the production cost of industry commodity by using modern advanced techniques to reduce energy consumption, improve energy efficiency, and provide policy ideas for industry department about how to improve the competitiveness.
Then select eight typical industries from the industry, they are the Chemical industry, Cultural sports product manufacturing, textile industry, Paper & Paper Products, electric power industry, food industry, architectural industry, leather industry. We make simple analysis that the eight industries energy consumption impact on the Producer's Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI). And for the eight typical industries competitiveness with factors analysis, and the factors are the Producer's Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI), energy consumption, energy price index and energy efficiency.
In conclusion, based on the outcome of demonstration and analysis, the article delivers suggestions on energy consumption in China, which are believed to be positive reference and inspiration for China to make future strategies in industrial structure adjustment and long-term energy strategy, as well as improve the industry competitiveness in China.
引文
①李金凯.循环经济能源消费与经济增长和谐发展的战略选择[J].财经论丛,2005(5)：8-13.
②催民选,能源蓝皮书；2006中国能源发展报告[M],2006.
①文启湘,李金凯.经济增长的环境成本：从忽略到发掘[J].消费经济,205.
①肖炼,中美能源合作前景及对策.[M]世界知识出版社,2008.
②张国宝:“在第七届中美石油天然气工业论坛上的讲演”,2006年9月11日.
①张国宝:“在第七届中美石油天然气工业论坛上的讲演”,2006年9月11日.
②《瞭望新周刊》,2007年3月26日.
③《解放日报》,2007年8月16日.
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②催民选,能源蓝皮书；2006中国能源发展报告[M],2006.
①文启湘,李金凯.经济增长的环境成本：从忽略到发掘[J].消费经济,205.
①肖炼,中美能源合作前景及对策.[M]世界知识出版社,2008.
②张国宝:“在第七届中美石油天然气工业论坛上的讲演”,2006年9月11日.
①张国宝:“在第七届中美石油天然气工业论坛上的讲演”,2006年9月11日.
②《瞭望新周刊》,2007年3月26日.
③《解放日报》,2007年8月16日.
[1]Auty RM. Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies:The Resource Cures Thesis. London:Routledge,1993.
[2]Beltrarri A. Growth with Natural and Environment Resource [C]. Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei Working Paper,1995:28-45.
[3]Beckmann M J. The Limits to Growth in a Neoclassical World [J].American Economic Review,1975,65(3):695-699.
[4]Christensen LR, Jorgenson DW, Lau LJ. Transcendental Logarithmic Production Frontiers [J]. Review of Economics Statistics,1973 (55):28-45.
[5]Corden WM, Neary JP. Booming Secton and De-industrialization in a Small Economy [J]. The Economic Joural,1982 (93):825-848.
[6]Dasgupta P, Heal GM. The Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources [J]. Review of Economic Studies, Special Issue,1994,41 (128):3-26.
[7]Economic Depatment. China Quarterly Update-September 2007 [R]. World Bank Office, Beijing,2007.2.
[8]Engle RF, Cranger CWJ. Cointegration and Error Correction:Energy Econo-metrica,1987 (55):251-276.
[9]Goulder L, Mathai K. Optimal CO2 Abatement in the Presence of Induced Technological Change [C]. Workingpaper 6994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, USA,1998:225-249.
[10]Hudson EA, Jorgenson DW. U.S. Energy Policy and Economic Growth, 1975-2000, Bell J. Econom,1974 (5):461-514.
[11]Kraft J, Kraft A. On the Relationship Between Energy and GNP [J]. Energy Development,1978,1978 (3):401-403.
[12]Ozatalay, S.Crubaugh, T. V. Long. Energy Substitution and National Energy Policy [J]. AER,1996.69 (2):259-268.
[13]Rashe R, Tatom J. Energy and Potential GNP [J]. Fedral Reserve Bank if St Louis Review,1977,59 (6):68-76.
[14]Stern DI. A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the Role of Energy in the US Macroeconomy [J]. Energy Economics,1993 (22):267-283.
[15]Yu ESH, Choi JY. The Causal Relationship Between Electricity and GNP:An International Comparison [J]. Journal of Energy and Development,1985 (10): 249-272.
[16]鲍云樵.关于制定新的中国能源政策的建议[J].中外能源,2006(4)：15-19.
[17]曹远征.如何突破能源瓶颈,实现经济可持续发展[J].国际经济评论,2005(6)：19-23.
[18]冯飞.中国资源节约的现状和出路[J].今日国土,2005(7)：13.
[19]高岚,吴红梅.资源瓶颈：可持续发展之路[J].半月谈,2005(4)：9-16.
[20]关照宁,刘顺德.中国能源——资本替代的不确定性[J].运筹与管理,2004(2)：74-84.
[21]关照宁,刘顺德.考虑资本-能源-劳动投入的中国超越对数生产函数[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,24(5)：51-54.
[22]韩志勇,魏一鸣,焦建玲等.中国能源消费与经济增长的协整性与因果关系分析[J].系统工程,2004(12)：17-21.
[23]金碚.科学发展观与经济增长方式转变[J].中国工业经济,2006(5)：5-14
[24]蒋志华.上半年广西工业品出厂价格上涨原因及下半年走势预测[J].广西经济,2008(8)：14-16.
[25]林伯强.中国能源需求的计量经济分析[J].统计研究,2001(10)：34-39.
[26]林伯强.结果变化、效率改进与能源需求预测[J].经济研究,2003(5)：8-11.
[27]林伯强.电力消费与中国经济增长：基于生产函数的研究[J].管理世界,2003(11)：57-65.
[28]李金凯.循环经济能源消费与经济增长和谐发展的战略选择[J].财经论丛,2008(5)：8-13.
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