“市场换技术”策略与中国汽车业对外开放研究
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摘要
自改革开放以来,我国汽车业发展采取了“市场换技术”策略,从初期试探性引进FDI到后来1994年及2004年《汽车产业政策》出台,“市场换技术”策略虽然经历了不断的微调,但始终是我国汽车业发展的主要推动因素之一。而且从实践来看,“市场换技术”策略实施情况下,我国汽车业也得到了快速的发展,特别是自中国加入世界贸易组织之后十多年来,年均增长率高达20%以上。2009年我国汽车产业在金融危机爆发之后仍保持着快速增长的势头,无论是汽车生产量还是汽车消费量,中国均已超过美国,从而跃居为世界汽车业中最大的经济体。我国汽车业已经步入到一个深度调整阶段,越来越多的自主研发企业成功,同时也开始了对外扩张的步伐。各种理论及实践经验证明,走向自主创新是任何国家成功产业的必经之路,而目前在中国已经出现了这样的发展势头。而在另一个方面,我国汽车企业“走出去”步伐加快。本文正是在此背景下对我国汽车业“市场换技术”相关问题进行了较为细致的分析。首先,通过对相关理论进行梳理,回顾“市场换技术”的政策历程及进行效果评价。其次,在理论及现状分析的基础上,本位给出较为精确的计量估计；再次,本文结合国外相关国家的汽车业发展政策及效果的进行对比分析,为我国汽车业的未来走向提供了合理的政策建议。各章节内容简要总结如下：
第一章为导论部分。主要阐述了本文的研究目的及意义,对我国“市场换技术”策略的背景及研究意义进行了简要的概括和介绍。对“市场换技术”相关文献进行了梳理,并指出了需进一步研究的问题。同时阐述了本文的研究内容、结构安排、本文的创新与不足。
第二章为理论基础。本章梳理了相关研究理论,为后文研究奠立了研究基础,主要集中在跨国公司理论、国际直接投资的技术溢出效应两个方面,前者说明了我国“市场换技术”策略能够吸引跨国公司进入的动因,后者阐述了“市场换技术”策略能够取得成功的条件、路径及影响因素。并且对我国汽车业中FDI的技术外溢效应做了归纳,并指出了其中存在的不足。
第三章为国别经验对比分析。通过对新崛起的汽车生产大国韩国、巴西、印度,以及传统强国的美国、德国、日本汽车产业政策进行了较为详细的归纳、回顾及对比,本文认为主要汽车大国的政策历程呈现出不同的发展特征,但政策适用前提分析表明,韩国、日本、巴西以及印度在产业崛起时候的经验更加适用于目前转轨期间的中国。同时,美国德国的经验表明,虽说在汽车业发展初期扶持及保护政策有其必然性,但加强企业自主创新能力才是一国汽车业得以长期稳健发展的关键因素。
第四章为中国汽车业“市场换技术”开放策略实施及影响的现状描述。本章将对“市场换技术”政策在我国汽车业实施的历程、现状及未来趋势进行较为较为细致的分析和梳理,为后文更为深入的行业分析以及计量估计提供现实依据。通过政策5个阶段的历程回顾,本章指出我国汽车业”市场换技术”的政策代表性文件为1994年《汽车工业产业政策》及2004年《汽车工业产业政策》,前者标志我国汽车业“市场换技术”策略的正式实施,后者标志着我国汽车业“市场换技术”策略进入了深度发展阶段,并开始了政策转向。因此,本章也以这两项政策为主分析了“市场换技术”策略对中国汽车业发展的影响。
第五章为实证分析部分。在不考虑跨行业溢出效应的假定前提下,本章针对FDI在中国汽车行业的溢出效应应用协整理论与VAR模型做了实证分析,分别来检测行业内FDI流入对本土汽车企业发展的竞争效应、示范和集聚效应、人力资本效应等影响,以及这三种效应与本土汽车企业产业发展之间的动态长期关系。结论支持了政策分析的观点,认为在长期FDI流入对我国汽车业存在溢出效应,市场在长期换得了一定的技术进步。
第六章为结论与政策建议。在理论、实证及经验分析基础上,本章将结合中国实际情况,正对目前“市场换技术”策略存在的弊端,提出对我国汽车业发展切实可行的政策建议,包括：革新“市场换技术”策略、发挥市场优势；营造良好汽车产业环境、保护民族汽车产业；采取合理措施促进我国汽车产业链整合与升级；建立健全的汽车金融体系；增加核心技术领域研发的支持；积极鼓励国内车企实行“走出去”。
Since reform and opening up, China's auto industry development adopted a policy of exchanging market with technology from the initial tentative introduction of FDI to the later, in1994and2004, the auto industry policy, policy of exchanging market with technology although has experienced constant fine-tuning, but always is one of the main driving factors for the development of auto industry in our country. And from the point of practice, the policy of exchanging market with technology implementation, our country automobile industry also obtained fast development, especially since China joined the world trade organization after more than ten years, average annual growth rate as high as20%above. In2009China's auto industry after the financial crisis is still maintained the momentum of rapid growth, production more than the United States, leaps to the world; China has become the world's largest economy, either production or consumption. China's auto industry has entered into a deep correction phase, a growing number of independent research and development enterprise success, also started the pace of expansion. All kinds of theory and practical experience proved that to independent innovation are essential to any successful industry road, and at present in China has appeared the momentum of development. In another aspect, our country automobile enterprises' OFDI is also intensified. In this dissertation, it is in this background of our country automobile industry "market for technology" related issues are discussed in detailed analysis. First of all, based on related theory to comb, reviewing the policy of exchanging market with technology and effect evaluation. Secondly, on the basis of the theory and the present situation analysis, the standard measurement gives a more accurate estimate Again, in this paper, combining with the related countries of foreign automobile industry development policy and the effect of comparative analysis, for the future of China's auto industry to provide the reasonable policy recommendations. Research content focused on three aspects:Firstly, carding domestic and foreign theory related to policy of exchanging market with technology research results, and find out the future research direction to make some breakthrough; Secondly, in combination with policy, on the basis of the content itself, contact history, on China's policy of exchanging market with technology are given the appropriate evaluation; Thirdly, by comparing the precision of measurement analysis and comparative analysis of the country to give reasonable Suggestions for future development of China auto industry.
The first chapter of this dissertation is an introduction to expound the research purpose and significance to our country policy of exchanging market with technology of the background and research significance briefly summarized and introduced. Of exchanging market with technology, generalizes the related literature, and points out the problems needed to be studied. At the same time, expounds the research content of this article, the structure arrangement, innovation and deficiency of this article.
The second chapter is theoretical basis. This chapter defines the concept and combed the related research theory, has laid a research basis for the later research. And focus on the definition of market for technology operator's related concepts and the range of the car industry and enterprise and the international direct investment spillover effect relevant definition of the definition. Related theory of carding mainly concentrated in the multinational company theory, two aspects of technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment, and the former shows the policy of exchanging market with technology to attract multinational companies to enter the motivation, which expounds the policy of exchanging market with technology can, path and influencing factors of the conditions of success.
The third chapter is China's auto industry exchanging market with technology of the open policy implementation and influence the present situation of the description section. This chapter will be to exchanging market with technology policy implemented in China's auto industry is the history, present situation and future trends of detailed analysis and carding, to later more in-depth industry analysis and econometric estimates provide reality basis. Through policy review five stages of the process, this chapter points out that China's auto industry policy market for technology representative file for1994years the automobile industry policy and the automobile industry policy in2004, which marks China's auto industry the formal implementation of "exchanging market with technology" policy, which marks China's auto industry into the depth of exchanging market with technology policy development stage, and began a policy shift. Therefore, this section also is given priority to with both policies and analyses the influence of exchanging market with technology policy's impact on the development of China's auto industry.
The fourth chapter is empirical section. Without considering spillover effects across industry, under the premise of this chapter in view of the spillover effects of FDI in China auto industry using cointegration theory and VAR model to do empirical analysis, respectively, to detect industry influenced the development of domestic enterprises of domestic and foreign enterprises competition effect, demonstration and agglomeration effect, the effect of human capital, as well as the effect of the three dynamic between domestic enterprises industry development and long-term relationships.
The fifth chapter is compare analysis section for national experience. Through to the United States, Germany, Japan and South Korea's auto industry policy has carried on the detailed induction, review and comparison, this paper argues that the main motor power policy history shows the characteristics of the development of different, but the policy applicable premise analysis showed that Japan, South Korea's experience is more suitable for China now. At the same time, although at the beginning of the auto industry development support and protection policy has its inevitability, but strengthen the enterprise independent innovation ability is the key to the long-term healthy development of the auto industry country.
Chapter6is conclusions and policy recommendations. On the basis of theory, experience and empirical analysis, this chapter will combine China's actual situation, is for the insufficiency of exchanging market with technology policy, to our country automobile industry development is put forward the feasible policy Suggestions, including:innovation policy of exchanging market with technology, giving full play to the advantages of the market; Create a good environment for the auto industry and protect national auto industry; To take reasonable measures to promote the integration of China's automobile industry chain and upgrade; Establish and improve the automotive finance system; Increase the core technology research and development support; Actively encourage the domestic companies'OFDI.
第一章为导论部分。主要阐述了本文的研究目的及意义,对我国“市场换技术”策略的背景及研究意义进行了简要的概括和介绍。对“市场换技术”相关文献进行了梳理,并指出了需进一步研究的问题。同时阐述了本文的研究内容、结构安排、本文的创新与不足。
第二章为理论基础。本章梳理了相关研究理论,为后文研究奠立了研究基础,主要集中在跨国公司理论、国际直接投资的技术溢出效应两个方面,前者说明了我国“市场换技术”策略能够吸引跨国公司进入的动因,后者阐述了“市场换技术”策略能够取得成功的条件、路径及影响因素。并且对我国汽车业中FDI的技术外溢效应做了归纳,并指出了其中存在的不足。
第三章为国别经验对比分析。通过对新崛起的汽车生产大国韩国、巴西、印度,以及传统强国的美国、德国、日本汽车产业政策进行了较为详细的归纳、回顾及对比,本文认为主要汽车大国的政策历程呈现出不同的发展特征,但政策适用前提分析表明,韩国、日本、巴西以及印度在产业崛起时候的经验更加适用于目前转轨期间的中国。同时,美国德国的经验表明,虽说在汽车业发展初期扶持及保护政策有其必然性,但加强企业自主创新能力才是一国汽车业得以长期稳健发展的关键因素。
第四章为中国汽车业“市场换技术”开放策略实施及影响的现状描述。本章将对“市场换技术”政策在我国汽车业实施的历程、现状及未来趋势进行较为较为细致的分析和梳理,为后文更为深入的行业分析以及计量估计提供现实依据。通过政策5个阶段的历程回顾,本章指出我国汽车业”市场换技术”的政策代表性文件为1994年《汽车工业产业政策》及2004年《汽车工业产业政策》,前者标志我国汽车业“市场换技术”策略的正式实施,后者标志着我国汽车业“市场换技术”策略进入了深度发展阶段,并开始了政策转向。因此,本章也以这两项政策为主分析了“市场换技术”策略对中国汽车业发展的影响。
第五章为实证分析部分。在不考虑跨行业溢出效应的假定前提下,本章针对FDI在中国汽车行业的溢出效应应用协整理论与VAR模型做了实证分析,分别来检测行业内FDI流入对本土汽车企业发展的竞争效应、示范和集聚效应、人力资本效应等影响,以及这三种效应与本土汽车企业产业发展之间的动态长期关系。结论支持了政策分析的观点,认为在长期FDI流入对我国汽车业存在溢出效应,市场在长期换得了一定的技术进步。
第六章为结论与政策建议。在理论、实证及经验分析基础上,本章将结合中国实际情况,正对目前“市场换技术”策略存在的弊端,提出对我国汽车业发展切实可行的政策建议,包括：革新“市场换技术”策略、发挥市场优势；营造良好汽车产业环境、保护民族汽车产业；采取合理措施促进我国汽车产业链整合与升级；建立健全的汽车金融体系；增加核心技术领域研发的支持；积极鼓励国内车企实行“走出去”。
Since reform and opening up, China's auto industry development adopted a policy of exchanging market with technology from the initial tentative introduction of FDI to the later, in1994and2004, the auto industry policy, policy of exchanging market with technology although has experienced constant fine-tuning, but always is one of the main driving factors for the development of auto industry in our country. And from the point of practice, the policy of exchanging market with technology implementation, our country automobile industry also obtained fast development, especially since China joined the world trade organization after more than ten years, average annual growth rate as high as20%above. In2009China's auto industry after the financial crisis is still maintained the momentum of rapid growth, production more than the United States, leaps to the world; China has become the world's largest economy, either production or consumption. China's auto industry has entered into a deep correction phase, a growing number of independent research and development enterprise success, also started the pace of expansion. All kinds of theory and practical experience proved that to independent innovation are essential to any successful industry road, and at present in China has appeared the momentum of development. In another aspect, our country automobile enterprises' OFDI is also intensified. In this dissertation, it is in this background of our country automobile industry "market for technology" related issues are discussed in detailed analysis. First of all, based on related theory to comb, reviewing the policy of exchanging market with technology and effect evaluation. Secondly, on the basis of the theory and the present situation analysis, the standard measurement gives a more accurate estimate Again, in this paper, combining with the related countries of foreign automobile industry development policy and the effect of comparative analysis, for the future of China's auto industry to provide the reasonable policy recommendations. Research content focused on three aspects:Firstly, carding domestic and foreign theory related to policy of exchanging market with technology research results, and find out the future research direction to make some breakthrough; Secondly, in combination with policy, on the basis of the content itself, contact history, on China's policy of exchanging market with technology are given the appropriate evaluation; Thirdly, by comparing the precision of measurement analysis and comparative analysis of the country to give reasonable Suggestions for future development of China auto industry.
The first chapter of this dissertation is an introduction to expound the research purpose and significance to our country policy of exchanging market with technology of the background and research significance briefly summarized and introduced. Of exchanging market with technology, generalizes the related literature, and points out the problems needed to be studied. At the same time, expounds the research content of this article, the structure arrangement, innovation and deficiency of this article.
The second chapter is theoretical basis. This chapter defines the concept and combed the related research theory, has laid a research basis for the later research. And focus on the definition of market for technology operator's related concepts and the range of the car industry and enterprise and the international direct investment spillover effect relevant definition of the definition. Related theory of carding mainly concentrated in the multinational company theory, two aspects of technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment, and the former shows the policy of exchanging market with technology to attract multinational companies to enter the motivation, which expounds the policy of exchanging market with technology can, path and influencing factors of the conditions of success.
The third chapter is China's auto industry exchanging market with technology of the open policy implementation and influence the present situation of the description section. This chapter will be to exchanging market with technology policy implemented in China's auto industry is the history, present situation and future trends of detailed analysis and carding, to later more in-depth industry analysis and econometric estimates provide reality basis. Through policy review five stages of the process, this chapter points out that China's auto industry policy market for technology representative file for1994years the automobile industry policy and the automobile industry policy in2004, which marks China's auto industry the formal implementation of "exchanging market with technology" policy, which marks China's auto industry into the depth of exchanging market with technology policy development stage, and began a policy shift. Therefore, this section also is given priority to with both policies and analyses the influence of exchanging market with technology policy's impact on the development of China's auto industry.
The fourth chapter is empirical section. Without considering spillover effects across industry, under the premise of this chapter in view of the spillover effects of FDI in China auto industry using cointegration theory and VAR model to do empirical analysis, respectively, to detect industry influenced the development of domestic enterprises of domestic and foreign enterprises competition effect, demonstration and agglomeration effect, the effect of human capital, as well as the effect of the three dynamic between domestic enterprises industry development and long-term relationships.
The fifth chapter is compare analysis section for national experience. Through to the United States, Germany, Japan and South Korea's auto industry policy has carried on the detailed induction, review and comparison, this paper argues that the main motor power policy history shows the characteristics of the development of different, but the policy applicable premise analysis showed that Japan, South Korea's experience is more suitable for China now. At the same time, although at the beginning of the auto industry development support and protection policy has its inevitability, but strengthen the enterprise independent innovation ability is the key to the long-term healthy development of the auto industry country.
Chapter6is conclusions and policy recommendations. On the basis of theory, experience and empirical analysis, this chapter will combine China's actual situation, is for the insufficiency of exchanging market with technology policy, to our country automobile industry development is put forward the feasible policy Suggestions, including:innovation policy of exchanging market with technology, giving full play to the advantages of the market; Create a good environment for the auto industry and protect national auto industry; To take reasonable measures to promote the integration of China's automobile industry chain and upgrade; Establish and improve the automotive finance system; Increase the core technology research and development support; Actively encourage the domestic companies'OFDI.
引文
①参见1986年联合国《跨国公司行为守则》。
① Rodriguez-Clare, A. (2007), "Clusters and comparative advantage: Implications for industrial policy," Journal of Development Economics, vol.82:43-57.
①Indira Gandhi.Peoples and Problems[M].London,1982:28.
②印度利用外国投资的经验教训与面临的主要问题,赵建军,2000
①参见中国1994年《汽车工业产业政策》。
①参见中国1994年《汽车工业产业政策》笕一章第2条。
②参见中国1994年《汽车工业产业政策》第三章第13条。
③参见中国1994年《汽车工业产业政策》第六章第31条。
①参见中国2004年《汽车工业产业政策》第二章第6条。
②参见中国2004年《汽车工业产业政策》第十章第47条。
①参见中国2004年《汽车工业产业政策》第八章第30条。
④参见中国2004年《汽车工业产业政策》第八章第31条。
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①参见中国1994年《汽车工业产业政策》笕一章第2条。
②参见中国1994年《汽车工业产业政策》第三章第13条。
③参见中国1994年《汽车工业产业政策》第六章第31条。
①参见中国2004年《汽车工业产业政策》第二章第6条。
②参见中国2004年《汽车工业产业政策》第十章第47条。
①参见中国2004年《汽车工业产业政策》第八章第30条。
④参见中国2004年《汽车工业产业政策》第八章第31条。
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