中国天山乌鲁木齐河流域气候变化和径流特征研究
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摘要
在全球变暖的背景下,对干旱区河流流域的气候和径流变化的研究具有重要意义。本文利用乌鲁木齐河流域9个气象和水文观测站点的气温、降水和径流数据,计算了乌鲁木齐河流域平均气温和平均降水,并结合流域从河源区到下游各水文气象站点观测数据,从整个流域、单个站点、年际、年内、季节等角度分析了流域气候和径流的变化特征及其相互关系,并分析了气候变化及人类活动对径流的影响。
经初步研究得出以下结论:
(1)近49年来乌鲁木齐河流域年平均气温和降水量均呈上升趋势。流域年平均气温变化倾向率为0.22℃/10a,流域平均降水量以24.9 mm/10a的趋势增加。20世纪90年代中期后以来流域年平均气温均值与前37年平均值相比,年气温平均增加了0.9℃,增温显著。90年代后降水量也开始偏多,1959-1990年流域平均降水量为334.1 mm,1991-2007年流域平均降水量为409.2 mm,增加了75.1 mm,降水量增加显著。
(2)流域年平均气温在春、秋、冬三季均呈上升趋势。秋、冬季两季增温明显,冬季气温上升趋势最大。流域四季降水量均呈增加趋势,夏季和冬季降水量增加趋势明显,但秋季降水是偏少的。
(3)流域平均气温和降水量变化与东天山平均气温和降水变化趋势一致。气温变化率低于东天山气温变化率,降水量变化率高于东天山降水变化率。但整体都呈上升趋势。
(4)除乌鲁木齐气象站年平均气温突变出现在80年代中期,流域平均降水和气温、河源区年降水和年平均气温以及乌鲁木齐年降水突变点均出现在1990年以后。这与90年代后流域进入暖湿期相符。流域气温和降水均在小尺度范围内呈现11年左右的震荡趋势,与太阳黑子活动有关。
(5)乌鲁木齐河出山径流量从90年代初期开始年径流量增加显著,这与90年代以来气温显著升高和降水显著增加有着重要关系。
(6)乌鲁木齐河径流量震荡周期与降水震荡周期基本一直,说明流域径流量受降水影响作用较强。
(7)出山口英雄桥水文站年径流量和年降水量的相关系数较好。说明高山区年径流的总量受制于年降水量。
(8)人类活动对乌鲁木齐河流域的影响日益凸现,需采取有效保护措施,使乌鲁木齐河水资源实现可持续利用。
Studying the changes of climate and runoff about the river basin which located at the arid region has an important significance in the context of global warming. Using the data of temperature, precipitation and runoff come from the nine meteorological and hydrological observation sites located at theürümqi River Basin, this paper has calculated the average temperature and the average precipitation of Urumqi river Basin. Combine with other data come from hydro-meteorological station located from head river to the downstream, this paper analyzed change of climate and the basin runoff characteristic and their relationship from angles of the whole basin, single observation sites, annual, yearly, seasonally and the impact on runoff by climate changes and human activities.
Several conclusions were drawn in this paper as follows:
(1) The annual average temperature and precipitation has an ascendant trend from 1959 to 2007 inürümqi River Basin. The climatic tendency rate of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation are 0.22℃/10a and 24.9 mm/10a which indicate the temperature and precipitation are obviously ascending. The annual average temperature during the middle time of the 1990s is 0.9℃warmer than that during the time from 1959 to 1990. After the 1990s, precipitation also began increased. From 1959 to 1990, the annual average precipitation is 334.1 mm, which is 75.1 mm under that of 1991 to 2007.
(2) The annual average temperature in spring, autumn and winter seasons had an ascendant trend especially the winter has the most fast ascendant trend in the basin. The annual average precipitation had an ascendant trend during the four seasons but precipitation in autumn is scarce.
(3) The trend of annual average temperature and precipitation is similar to that of eastern Tianshan Mountains. Temperature change rate is lower that of eastern Tianshan Mountains. But precipitation change rate is higher. The whole trends are ascendant.
(4) The abrupt changes of annual average temperatures and precipitation are happened after the 1990s except that of annual average temperatures in Urumqi meteorological stations which abrupt change happened in the middle of 1980s.This phenomenon is related to that theürümqi River Basin has enter a warm periods from 1990s. Temperature and precipitation have an 11 years change scale. This phenomenon is related to the sunspot activity.
(5) The runoff ofürümqi River Basin from the early 1990s mountain began to increase since 1990s. This phenomenon is related to the temperature and precipitation rise from 1990s.
(6) The runoff and precipitation has a similar cycle period. It means that precipitation has a strong influence on runoff.
(7) The relevance between annual runoff and precipitation is fine at the station of Ying Xiongqiao. It expressed that annual runoff is controlled by annual precipitation.
(8) The influences onürümqi River Basin caused by human activities becomes more obviously. Some effective methods should be taken to protect the environment ofürümqi River Basin so that the water resources could be sustainable utilization.
经初步研究得出以下结论:
(1)近49年来乌鲁木齐河流域年平均气温和降水量均呈上升趋势。流域年平均气温变化倾向率为0.22℃/10a,流域平均降水量以24.9 mm/10a的趋势增加。20世纪90年代中期后以来流域年平均气温均值与前37年平均值相比,年气温平均增加了0.9℃,增温显著。90年代后降水量也开始偏多,1959-1990年流域平均降水量为334.1 mm,1991-2007年流域平均降水量为409.2 mm,增加了75.1 mm,降水量增加显著。
(2)流域年平均气温在春、秋、冬三季均呈上升趋势。秋、冬季两季增温明显,冬季气温上升趋势最大。流域四季降水量均呈增加趋势,夏季和冬季降水量增加趋势明显,但秋季降水是偏少的。
(3)流域平均气温和降水量变化与东天山平均气温和降水变化趋势一致。气温变化率低于东天山气温变化率,降水量变化率高于东天山降水变化率。但整体都呈上升趋势。
(4)除乌鲁木齐气象站年平均气温突变出现在80年代中期,流域平均降水和气温、河源区年降水和年平均气温以及乌鲁木齐年降水突变点均出现在1990年以后。这与90年代后流域进入暖湿期相符。流域气温和降水均在小尺度范围内呈现11年左右的震荡趋势,与太阳黑子活动有关。
(5)乌鲁木齐河出山径流量从90年代初期开始年径流量增加显著,这与90年代以来气温显著升高和降水显著增加有着重要关系。
(6)乌鲁木齐河径流量震荡周期与降水震荡周期基本一直,说明流域径流量受降水影响作用较强。
(7)出山口英雄桥水文站年径流量和年降水量的相关系数较好。说明高山区年径流的总量受制于年降水量。
(8)人类活动对乌鲁木齐河流域的影响日益凸现,需采取有效保护措施,使乌鲁木齐河水资源实现可持续利用。
Studying the changes of climate and runoff about the river basin which located at the arid region has an important significance in the context of global warming. Using the data of temperature, precipitation and runoff come from the nine meteorological and hydrological observation sites located at theürümqi River Basin, this paper has calculated the average temperature and the average precipitation of Urumqi river Basin. Combine with other data come from hydro-meteorological station located from head river to the downstream, this paper analyzed change of climate and the basin runoff characteristic and their relationship from angles of the whole basin, single observation sites, annual, yearly, seasonally and the impact on runoff by climate changes and human activities.
Several conclusions were drawn in this paper as follows:
(1) The annual average temperature and precipitation has an ascendant trend from 1959 to 2007 inürümqi River Basin. The climatic tendency rate of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation are 0.22℃/10a and 24.9 mm/10a which indicate the temperature and precipitation are obviously ascending. The annual average temperature during the middle time of the 1990s is 0.9℃warmer than that during the time from 1959 to 1990. After the 1990s, precipitation also began increased. From 1959 to 1990, the annual average precipitation is 334.1 mm, which is 75.1 mm under that of 1991 to 2007.
(2) The annual average temperature in spring, autumn and winter seasons had an ascendant trend especially the winter has the most fast ascendant trend in the basin. The annual average precipitation had an ascendant trend during the four seasons but precipitation in autumn is scarce.
(3) The trend of annual average temperature and precipitation is similar to that of eastern Tianshan Mountains. Temperature change rate is lower that of eastern Tianshan Mountains. But precipitation change rate is higher. The whole trends are ascendant.
(4) The abrupt changes of annual average temperatures and precipitation are happened after the 1990s except that of annual average temperatures in Urumqi meteorological stations which abrupt change happened in the middle of 1980s.This phenomenon is related to that theürümqi River Basin has enter a warm periods from 1990s. Temperature and precipitation have an 11 years change scale. This phenomenon is related to the sunspot activity.
(5) The runoff ofürümqi River Basin from the early 1990s mountain began to increase since 1990s. This phenomenon is related to the temperature and precipitation rise from 1990s.
(6) The runoff and precipitation has a similar cycle period. It means that precipitation has a strong influence on runoff.
(7) The relevance between annual runoff and precipitation is fine at the station of Ying Xiongqiao. It expressed that annual runoff is controlled by annual precipitation.
(8) The influences onürümqi River Basin caused by human activities becomes more obviously. Some effective methods should be taken to protect the environment ofürümqi River Basin so that the water resources could be sustainable utilization.
引文
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