江苏滨海土地利用/覆盖变化及其生态环境效应研究
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摘要
土地利用/覆盖变化(简称LUCC)是当前全球环境变化研究领域的前沿课题,而开展典型地区的案例研究是认识全球变化的重要途径,滨海地区因其特殊的海陆生态系统环境也已成为土地利用/覆盖变化研究的热点区域。本文选择江苏滨海地区为研究对象,以1987年利用现状图、1997年和2006年TM遥感影像为数据源,运用3S技术(RS、GIS、GPS),综合地理学、景观生态学、统计学、土地评价学等多学科理论与方法,集成一系列模型,采用定性与定量相结合的手段,从不同侧面系统研究和分析了该区域土地利用时空变化特征、机制、过程、趋势与规律,不仅可为该区域的土地资源管理和开发利用提供决策依据,也可为国内外同类区域研究提供借鉴。
以“时间过程”和“空间格局”为主线,采用土地利用/覆盖变化的幅度、动态度、速度、土地利用程度、景观偏离度、土地利用结构信息熵、集中化指数、均匀度指数、区位指数、转移矩阵等模型,对江苏滨海土地利用的时空演变进行了深入剖析。
将定性分析和定量诊断相结合,采用因子分析、典型相关分析等方法对土地利用变化驱动力进行了系统的研究,揭示了江苏滨海不同时空尺度和区域背景下的主要驱动因素及其驱动机制。
采用"Logistic回归+CLUE-S"模型,在粮食安全情景、生态安全情景、经济发展情景和综合发展情景等4个预设情景方案的基础上重建了土地利用空间格局的动态演变过程,并对未来土地的空间结构动态发展进行了预测。
本文的主要研究结论如下：
(1)土地覆盖以耕地、水域、沿海滩涂、沼泽地等土地类型为主,其中耕地和水产养殖组成的农用地占整个区域的3/4左右。区域土地面积总体呈增长趋势,面积总量变化较大的土地利用类型有水域、未利用土地、耕地、建设用地。无论总变化幅度还是年变化幅度均以水域为最大,总变化幅度中水域(1713.07kmm2)>未利用地(749.10 km2)>耕地(654.84 km2)>建设用地(-610.24km2)>草地(-297.24 km2)>林地(-67.96 km2)。动态度变化水域(32.69%)>草地(-5%)>建设用地(-3.91%)>未利用地(2.75%)>林地(-1.75%)。江苏滨海土地利用程度综合指数为211-307,区域内土地利用程度综合指数总体较低,且有所下降。各土地利用类型的转移方式与强度存在较大差异,耕地的转入量大于转出量,其他土地利用类型均转出大于转入,转移强度未利用地(了.20)>建设用地(5.02)>耕地(2.88)>林地(2.37)>水域用地(2.17)。
(2)1987-2006年,土地利用结构信息熵指数较小,江苏滨海的土地利用多样性较低,但有不断上升趋势；景观偏离度指数较大,多在70%以上,土地人工化程度较高；集中化指数较高,部分县(市、区)部分年份的集中化指数超过了0.5,但是其值有下降趋势,均匀化指数较低,大多低于0.50,且有上升趋势。综合以上结果,江苏滨海土地利用人工化程度较高,各县(市、区)土地单一化程度较高,具有较强的集中性,随着近年土地利用方式的多样化,集中性下降,均匀程度增加。
(3)从区位指数来看,盐城耕地具有普遍区位优势,水域的区位优势集中于连云港和盐城,建设用地在沿海各已开发、待开发港口均有一定的潜力优势,未利用地在整个江苏滨海具有普遍区位优势。
(4)海岸淤蚀变化和海平面上升构成了江苏滨海土地利用/覆盖变化的基底,人口贯穿于人类发展的整个历史,但是通过社会经济和政策影响来对土地利用/覆盖变化施加作用。近代以来,尤其是解放以后,江苏滨海土地利用/覆盖变化主要受社会经济和政策因素驱动。土地所有制三次大变革、经济体制改革、三次滩涂围垦、海上苏东战略的实施都在特定时期、特定区域驱动着土地利用/覆盖变化。未来江苏滨海土地利用/覆盖变化的主要驱动力可能会来自沿海开发战略升级,包括沿海空间开发格局、沿海海洋产业发展、重要生态功能区的建设等因素。
(5)江苏滨海经历了50、60年代以大规模治水兴垦,创办农盐场为特征的滩涂开发,70、80年代以围垦开垦移民开发、种植养殖综合开发为主要内容的滩涂开发,“九五、十五”期间的“百万滩涂开发工程”,20世纪90年代实施的海上苏东战略等,土地利用方式和强度在近几十年内发生了较大变化,与之伴生的生态环境问题日渐突出,产生了海岸线淤蚀变化、区域湿地面积变化、区域土壤环境变化、生物多样性变化和水质变化等方面的生态环境效应。
(6)选取距道路距离、距海岸线距离、距大陆岸线距离、距居民地距离、距河流距离、距5m等深线距离、人口密度和农业产值密度等8个因子作为驱动因子与各土地利用类型做Logistic分析,所有地类ROC曲线下的面积在0.7以上,具有较好的解释效果。运用CLUE-S模型,通过1997年的遥感解译数据模拟2006年的土地利用/覆盖情况,发现模拟结果与实际情况之间具有较高的一致性,Kappa指数为0.8675,可以较好地模拟区域土地利用/覆盖变化。
(7)在预设粮食安全情景、生态安全情景、经济发展情景和综合发展情景等4个情景方案的基础上,运用CLUE-S模型软件模拟2015年江苏滨海的土地覆盖空间格局。对上述4个情景的模拟结果进行综合分析,发现未来江苏滨海较合理的土地利用情景是综合发展目标情景。
(8)基于综合发展目标情景,江苏滨海未来的土地可持续利用应在保护中开发、开发中保护,突出优势、因地制宜,统筹规划、合理区划、多方协作等原则指导下,选择“集约发展港口与工业建设、优化发展滨海农业、积极发展滨海生态旅游业和合理构建生态保护屏障”多目标优化战略。
本文的创新之处在于：
(1)运用LUCC的理论方法研究江苏滨海的土地利用/覆盖问题。以“时间过程”和“空间格局”为主线,集成多种定量分析方法和空间分析技术,构建一系列时间动态模型、空间格局模型,对20年来江苏滨海土地利用/土地覆盖变化的动态变化进行定性、定位和定量分析,揭示了土地利用/土地覆盖变化的时空过程及其规律。综合运用了地理学、环境科学、景观生态学和土地科学的研究方法,从实证角度增补了LUCC研究的滨海区域案例。
(2)尝试采用时间尺度分析思路,通过定性与定量方法相结合,揭示了江苏滨海土地利用/覆盖变化驱动机制。海岸淤蚀变化和海平面上升变化等自然因素属较长时间尺度,影响土地利用/覆盖格局的基底；人口增长、土地所有制和经济体制改革、滩涂经济发展和沿海开发战略的逐步实施等社会经济因素属较短时间尺度,影响土地利用/覆盖的条块变化。近20年江苏滨海土地利用/覆盖变化的主要驱动力来自社会经济因素,表现为人均工业产值和盐田变化、乡村劳动力密度与建设用地变化、粮食总产量和耕地变化之间存在较大的联系。未来土地利用/覆盖变化主要受江苏沿海开发战略升级的驱动。
(3)根据江苏滨海的实际情况修正了Logistics、CLUE-S模型的相关参数,成功运用于江苏滨海LUCC情景模拟研究,并验证了该方法的有效性。在充分研究江苏滨海土地利用/覆盖特征的基础上,构建了粮食安全情景、生态安全情景、经济发展情景和综合发展情景4种情景方案,用以模拟2015年江苏滨海在这4种不同情景方案下的土地利用空间格局。模拟结果表明,粮食安全情景、生态安全情景、经济发展情景和综合发展情景分属于海洋产业结构演进的Ⅰ—Ⅳ阶段。经比较分析发现,在沿海开发战略升级的驱动下,综合发展情景是未来江苏滨海土地利用／覆盖变化较优的情景方案。
Researches on land use/cover change(LUCC) now are the frontier problems for discussion in the researches on the global environmental change. However, conducting case studies on LUCC in typical areas are one of the most important ways to understand global changes. Coastal zones have become the hot fields of LUCC because of their special sea and land ecosystem environment. In the paper, Jiangsu coast is selected as a typical area for case study. Taking the present land use map of 1987 and TMs of 1997 and 2006 as the data sources, using 3S (RS,GIS,GPS), combining with theories and methods from Geography, Landscape ecology, Statistics, Science of land evaluation, integrating a series of models, this thesis, by making use of the union of qualitative and quantitative ways, analyzes the temporal and spatial characters, driving mechanism, process, change tendency and regulation of dynamic change of land use. The results can not only provide decision basis for land resources management and exploitation but also a reference for similar areas home and abroad.
Based on the mainline of "temporal process" and "spatial pattern", this paper deeply analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution of land use in Jiangsu coast by using the models of land use change amplitude, dynamic degree, change velocity, land use degree, landscape deviation degree, information entropy of land use structure, concentration index, uniformity degree index and transformation matrix.
Combining qualitative analysis with quantitative diagnosis, This thesis systematically studies driving forces of land use change to disclose principal driving factors and their driving mechanism of Jiangsu coast under different temporal and spatial scale and regional background by means of factor analysis and canonical correlation analysis, et al..
In this paper, the author rebuilds dynamic evolution course of land use spatial pattern and predicts the dynamic development of land use spatial structure in the future based on four presupposition scenarios including scenario of food security, scenario of ecological security, scenario of economic development and scenario of comprehensive development by using "Logistic regression+CLUE-S" model.
The major conclusions of this paper are as follows:
(1) Arable land, waters, coastal tidal-flat area and swamp are principal land cover types, and arable land and aquaculture land(Included in the waters) accounting for three fourths. Total regional land areas gradually increase, and major total change coming from waters, unused land, arable land and construction land. The total and annual change amplitude of waters are maximal in all land use types. The total change amplitude obeys the following sequence:waters(1713.07km2)>unused land (749.10 km2)> arable land (654.84km2)> construction land (-610.24km2)>grassland(-297.24 km)> forest land(-67.96 km). Dynamic degree change obeys the laws: waters(32.69%)>grassland(-5%)>construction land (-3.91%)>unused land (2.75%) >forest land(-1.75%). Land use degree comprehensive index of Jiangsu coast is 211-307. the overall Land use degree comprehensive index of research areas are low and drop obviously. Shifting mode and intensity of every land use type exist great difference. The roll-in of arable land exceeds roll-out. However, roll-out of any other land use type exceeds roll-in. The shifting intensity obeys following sequence:unused land (7.20)> construction land (5.02)>arable land(2.88)>forest land(2.37)> waters(2.17).
(2)Less information entropy indice of land use structure mean diversity of land use in Jiangsu coast lower between 1987 and 2006. However they are gradually rising up. More landscape deviation degree indice, most of them above 70 percent, indicate higher artificial degree of land use. Concentration indice are higher, partial value above 0.5, and appear declining tendengcy. On the contrary, uniformity degree indice are lower, most of them below 0.5, and take on ascending tendency. Synthesizing above results, artificial degree of land use in Jiangsu coast is higher, land use simplification degree of all administration cells is higher and take possession of higher concentricity. Along with the diversity of land use modes, concentricity of land use is declining and uniformity degree is going up in Jiangsu coast.
(3)Judging from location indice, arable land of Yancheng has universal predominance, location advantage of waters focus on Lian yungang and Yancheng, developed and waiting developing at hand ports of Jiangsu coast have some potential advantage in construction land, and unused land possesses generally advantage in all Jiangsu coast.
(4)Sedimentation and erosion change of coast and sea-level-rise form the foundation for LUCC of Jiangsu coast. Population exists throughout human being history. However it exerts on LUCC only by mans of social economic and policy impact. Since modern times, particularly after the liberation of China, LUCC of Jiangsu coast has being mainly driven by social as well as economic factors, such as three reforms of land ownership, economic system restructuring, three times to enclose tideland for cultivation and coast development strategy of eastern Jiangsu. Principal driving force of LUCC will possible come from coast development strategy promotion in the future, including coastal spatial exploration pattern, marine industry development, construction of important eco-function areas etc..
(5) Land use modes and intensity of Jiangsu coast have dramatically changed within the last few decades because of a series of social and economic changes, such as tideland development characterized by "Water controlling and cultivation rising on a large scale in the 50s and 60s last century" and "reclamation and Migration exploit, comprehensive exploitation of cropping, and breeding in the 70s and 80s last century", exploitative engineering of million mu tideland during "the ninth five-year and the tenth five-year Plan, coast development strategy of eastern Jiangsu in the 90s last century. Along with which there are many ecological environment problems and lead to a series of ecological environment effect including sedimentation and erosion change of coast, area change of regional wetland, regional change of soil environment, biodiversity and water quality change, etc..
(6) This paper chooses the following eight natural and social economy factors as the driving factors(including distance to road, distance to coastline, distance to road, distance to continental shoreline, distance to residence, distance to river, distance to 5m depth contour, population density and density of agricultural output value) and land use type as dependent variable to do logistic regression. Outcomes have good interpretation effects because areas under ROC curve for all land types are above 0.7. This thesis stimulates LUCC of 2006 based on data from remote sensing interpretation by using the CLUE-S model. By contrasting to the interpretation data of 2006, it indicates that emulation and actual result have a better consistency. Kappa index is 0.8675. These show the CLUE-S Model can simulate the LUCC of Jiangsu coast.
(7) Based on scenarios of food security, ecological safety, economic development and integrative development, this article simulates the spatial pattern for land cover of Jiangsu coast by CLUE-S in 2015. By means of comprehensive analysis for simulation result of four aforementioned scenarios, the author thinks that the integrative development scenario is more excellent than other scenarios of prospective land use and cover in Jiangsu coast.
(8) Guided by the principle of "develop in protecting and protect in developing", "standing out advantage and in line with local conditions", "overall planning, rational division and multi-side coordination", sustainable land use of Jiangsu coast in the future should choose multi-objective optimization strategy as follow:intensively developing port and industry construction, optimizing seashore agriculture, actively developing seashore ecotourism and reasonably building ecological protection shelters.
The innovation of this paper can be listed as follows:
(1) The author studies land use and cover in Jiangsu coast by using LUCC theories and methods. Where performs qualitative, positioning and quantitative analyses for LUCC of Jiangsu coast during the last two decades to disclose temporal-spatial processes and their laws by taking "temporal process" and "spatial pattern" as paramount, integrating several kinds of multiple quantitative analysis methods and spatial analysis technologies, building a series of temporal dynamics and spatial pattern models. It comprehensively utilize research approaches from geography, environmental science, landscape ecology and land science, which supplements the coastal regional cases of LUCC from the angle of demonstration.
(2) Combining qualitative with quantitative analysis means, try to apply time scale mind to disclose the dynamic mechanisms of driving factors for LUCC in Jiangsu coast. The natural factors, including sedimentation and erosion change of seashore and sea level rising et al.., belong to a long time scale and influence the base of LUCC pattern. However the social-economic factors which include population growth, ownership of land and economic system reforms, tidal flat economic development and gradual implement of coastal developing strategy etc.. belong to a short time scale and influence strip changes of land use and cover. Social-economic factors are the main driving forces for the LUCC of Jiangsu coast in the last two decades because there are close correlation between per capita industrial output value and saltern change, country labour power density and construction land change, gross grain output and arable land change. Principal driving force of LUCC in Jiangsu coast will possible come from coast development strategy promotion in the future.
(3) In this paper, the Logistics analysis and CLUE-S model have been successfully adopted in research areas for scenario simulation after modifying parameters, whose validity has been testified. Based on the fully research for characteristics of land use and cover in Jiangsu coast, the author sets up four scenarios including food security, ecological safety, economic development and integrative development scenario to simulate spatial pattern of land use. The simulation results indicate that food security, ecological safety, economic development and integrative development scenario respectively belong toⅠ-Ⅳevolution stage of marine industry structure. By means of comprehensive analysis for simulation results of four aforementioned scenarios, the author thinks the integrative development scenario is more excellent than other scenarios of prospective land use and cover in Jiangsu coast under the background from updating of coastal developing strategy.
以“时间过程”和“空间格局”为主线,采用土地利用/覆盖变化的幅度、动态度、速度、土地利用程度、景观偏离度、土地利用结构信息熵、集中化指数、均匀度指数、区位指数、转移矩阵等模型,对江苏滨海土地利用的时空演变进行了深入剖析。
将定性分析和定量诊断相结合,采用因子分析、典型相关分析等方法对土地利用变化驱动力进行了系统的研究,揭示了江苏滨海不同时空尺度和区域背景下的主要驱动因素及其驱动机制。
采用"Logistic回归+CLUE-S"模型,在粮食安全情景、生态安全情景、经济发展情景和综合发展情景等4个预设情景方案的基础上重建了土地利用空间格局的动态演变过程,并对未来土地的空间结构动态发展进行了预测。
本文的主要研究结论如下：
(1)土地覆盖以耕地、水域、沿海滩涂、沼泽地等土地类型为主,其中耕地和水产养殖组成的农用地占整个区域的3/4左右。区域土地面积总体呈增长趋势,面积总量变化较大的土地利用类型有水域、未利用土地、耕地、建设用地。无论总变化幅度还是年变化幅度均以水域为最大,总变化幅度中水域(1713.07kmm2)>未利用地(749.10 km2)>耕地(654.84 km2)>建设用地(-610.24km2)>草地(-297.24 km2)>林地(-67.96 km2)。动态度变化水域(32.69%)>草地(-5%)>建设用地(-3.91%)>未利用地(2.75%)>林地(-1.75%)。江苏滨海土地利用程度综合指数为211-307,区域内土地利用程度综合指数总体较低,且有所下降。各土地利用类型的转移方式与强度存在较大差异,耕地的转入量大于转出量,其他土地利用类型均转出大于转入,转移强度未利用地(了.20)>建设用地(5.02)>耕地(2.88)>林地(2.37)>水域用地(2.17)。
(2)1987-2006年,土地利用结构信息熵指数较小,江苏滨海的土地利用多样性较低,但有不断上升趋势；景观偏离度指数较大,多在70%以上,土地人工化程度较高；集中化指数较高,部分县(市、区)部分年份的集中化指数超过了0.5,但是其值有下降趋势,均匀化指数较低,大多低于0.50,且有上升趋势。综合以上结果,江苏滨海土地利用人工化程度较高,各县(市、区)土地单一化程度较高,具有较强的集中性,随着近年土地利用方式的多样化,集中性下降,均匀程度增加。
(3)从区位指数来看,盐城耕地具有普遍区位优势,水域的区位优势集中于连云港和盐城,建设用地在沿海各已开发、待开发港口均有一定的潜力优势,未利用地在整个江苏滨海具有普遍区位优势。
(4)海岸淤蚀变化和海平面上升构成了江苏滨海土地利用/覆盖变化的基底,人口贯穿于人类发展的整个历史,但是通过社会经济和政策影响来对土地利用/覆盖变化施加作用。近代以来,尤其是解放以后,江苏滨海土地利用/覆盖变化主要受社会经济和政策因素驱动。土地所有制三次大变革、经济体制改革、三次滩涂围垦、海上苏东战略的实施都在特定时期、特定区域驱动着土地利用/覆盖变化。未来江苏滨海土地利用/覆盖变化的主要驱动力可能会来自沿海开发战略升级,包括沿海空间开发格局、沿海海洋产业发展、重要生态功能区的建设等因素。
(5)江苏滨海经历了50、60年代以大规模治水兴垦,创办农盐场为特征的滩涂开发,70、80年代以围垦开垦移民开发、种植养殖综合开发为主要内容的滩涂开发,“九五、十五”期间的“百万滩涂开发工程”,20世纪90年代实施的海上苏东战略等,土地利用方式和强度在近几十年内发生了较大变化,与之伴生的生态环境问题日渐突出,产生了海岸线淤蚀变化、区域湿地面积变化、区域土壤环境变化、生物多样性变化和水质变化等方面的生态环境效应。
(6)选取距道路距离、距海岸线距离、距大陆岸线距离、距居民地距离、距河流距离、距5m等深线距离、人口密度和农业产值密度等8个因子作为驱动因子与各土地利用类型做Logistic分析,所有地类ROC曲线下的面积在0.7以上,具有较好的解释效果。运用CLUE-S模型,通过1997年的遥感解译数据模拟2006年的土地利用/覆盖情况,发现模拟结果与实际情况之间具有较高的一致性,Kappa指数为0.8675,可以较好地模拟区域土地利用/覆盖变化。
(7)在预设粮食安全情景、生态安全情景、经济发展情景和综合发展情景等4个情景方案的基础上,运用CLUE-S模型软件模拟2015年江苏滨海的土地覆盖空间格局。对上述4个情景的模拟结果进行综合分析,发现未来江苏滨海较合理的土地利用情景是综合发展目标情景。
(8)基于综合发展目标情景,江苏滨海未来的土地可持续利用应在保护中开发、开发中保护,突出优势、因地制宜,统筹规划、合理区划、多方协作等原则指导下,选择“集约发展港口与工业建设、优化发展滨海农业、积极发展滨海生态旅游业和合理构建生态保护屏障”多目标优化战略。
本文的创新之处在于：
(1)运用LUCC的理论方法研究江苏滨海的土地利用/覆盖问题。以“时间过程”和“空间格局”为主线,集成多种定量分析方法和空间分析技术,构建一系列时间动态模型、空间格局模型,对20年来江苏滨海土地利用/土地覆盖变化的动态变化进行定性、定位和定量分析,揭示了土地利用/土地覆盖变化的时空过程及其规律。综合运用了地理学、环境科学、景观生态学和土地科学的研究方法,从实证角度增补了LUCC研究的滨海区域案例。
(2)尝试采用时间尺度分析思路,通过定性与定量方法相结合,揭示了江苏滨海土地利用/覆盖变化驱动机制。海岸淤蚀变化和海平面上升变化等自然因素属较长时间尺度,影响土地利用/覆盖格局的基底；人口增长、土地所有制和经济体制改革、滩涂经济发展和沿海开发战略的逐步实施等社会经济因素属较短时间尺度,影响土地利用/覆盖的条块变化。近20年江苏滨海土地利用/覆盖变化的主要驱动力来自社会经济因素,表现为人均工业产值和盐田变化、乡村劳动力密度与建设用地变化、粮食总产量和耕地变化之间存在较大的联系。未来土地利用/覆盖变化主要受江苏沿海开发战略升级的驱动。
(3)根据江苏滨海的实际情况修正了Logistics、CLUE-S模型的相关参数,成功运用于江苏滨海LUCC情景模拟研究,并验证了该方法的有效性。在充分研究江苏滨海土地利用/覆盖特征的基础上,构建了粮食安全情景、生态安全情景、经济发展情景和综合发展情景4种情景方案,用以模拟2015年江苏滨海在这4种不同情景方案下的土地利用空间格局。模拟结果表明,粮食安全情景、生态安全情景、经济发展情景和综合发展情景分属于海洋产业结构演进的Ⅰ—Ⅳ阶段。经比较分析发现,在沿海开发战略升级的驱动下,综合发展情景是未来江苏滨海土地利用／覆盖变化较优的情景方案。
Researches on land use/cover change(LUCC) now are the frontier problems for discussion in the researches on the global environmental change. However, conducting case studies on LUCC in typical areas are one of the most important ways to understand global changes. Coastal zones have become the hot fields of LUCC because of their special sea and land ecosystem environment. In the paper, Jiangsu coast is selected as a typical area for case study. Taking the present land use map of 1987 and TMs of 1997 and 2006 as the data sources, using 3S (RS,GIS,GPS), combining with theories and methods from Geography, Landscape ecology, Statistics, Science of land evaluation, integrating a series of models, this thesis, by making use of the union of qualitative and quantitative ways, analyzes the temporal and spatial characters, driving mechanism, process, change tendency and regulation of dynamic change of land use. The results can not only provide decision basis for land resources management and exploitation but also a reference for similar areas home and abroad.
Based on the mainline of "temporal process" and "spatial pattern", this paper deeply analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution of land use in Jiangsu coast by using the models of land use change amplitude, dynamic degree, change velocity, land use degree, landscape deviation degree, information entropy of land use structure, concentration index, uniformity degree index and transformation matrix.
Combining qualitative analysis with quantitative diagnosis, This thesis systematically studies driving forces of land use change to disclose principal driving factors and their driving mechanism of Jiangsu coast under different temporal and spatial scale and regional background by means of factor analysis and canonical correlation analysis, et al..
In this paper, the author rebuilds dynamic evolution course of land use spatial pattern and predicts the dynamic development of land use spatial structure in the future based on four presupposition scenarios including scenario of food security, scenario of ecological security, scenario of economic development and scenario of comprehensive development by using "Logistic regression+CLUE-S" model.
The major conclusions of this paper are as follows:
(1) Arable land, waters, coastal tidal-flat area and swamp are principal land cover types, and arable land and aquaculture land(Included in the waters) accounting for three fourths. Total regional land areas gradually increase, and major total change coming from waters, unused land, arable land and construction land. The total and annual change amplitude of waters are maximal in all land use types. The total change amplitude obeys the following sequence:waters(1713.07km2)>unused land (749.10 km2)> arable land (654.84km2)> construction land (-610.24km2)>grassland(-297.24 km)> forest land(-67.96 km). Dynamic degree change obeys the laws: waters(32.69%)>grassland(-5%)>construction land (-3.91%)>unused land (2.75%) >forest land(-1.75%). Land use degree comprehensive index of Jiangsu coast is 211-307. the overall Land use degree comprehensive index of research areas are low and drop obviously. Shifting mode and intensity of every land use type exist great difference. The roll-in of arable land exceeds roll-out. However, roll-out of any other land use type exceeds roll-in. The shifting intensity obeys following sequence:unused land (7.20)> construction land (5.02)>arable land(2.88)>forest land(2.37)> waters(2.17).
(2)Less information entropy indice of land use structure mean diversity of land use in Jiangsu coast lower between 1987 and 2006. However they are gradually rising up. More landscape deviation degree indice, most of them above 70 percent, indicate higher artificial degree of land use. Concentration indice are higher, partial value above 0.5, and appear declining tendengcy. On the contrary, uniformity degree indice are lower, most of them below 0.5, and take on ascending tendency. Synthesizing above results, artificial degree of land use in Jiangsu coast is higher, land use simplification degree of all administration cells is higher and take possession of higher concentricity. Along with the diversity of land use modes, concentricity of land use is declining and uniformity degree is going up in Jiangsu coast.
(3)Judging from location indice, arable land of Yancheng has universal predominance, location advantage of waters focus on Lian yungang and Yancheng, developed and waiting developing at hand ports of Jiangsu coast have some potential advantage in construction land, and unused land possesses generally advantage in all Jiangsu coast.
(4)Sedimentation and erosion change of coast and sea-level-rise form the foundation for LUCC of Jiangsu coast. Population exists throughout human being history. However it exerts on LUCC only by mans of social economic and policy impact. Since modern times, particularly after the liberation of China, LUCC of Jiangsu coast has being mainly driven by social as well as economic factors, such as three reforms of land ownership, economic system restructuring, three times to enclose tideland for cultivation and coast development strategy of eastern Jiangsu. Principal driving force of LUCC will possible come from coast development strategy promotion in the future, including coastal spatial exploration pattern, marine industry development, construction of important eco-function areas etc..
(5) Land use modes and intensity of Jiangsu coast have dramatically changed within the last few decades because of a series of social and economic changes, such as tideland development characterized by "Water controlling and cultivation rising on a large scale in the 50s and 60s last century" and "reclamation and Migration exploit, comprehensive exploitation of cropping, and breeding in the 70s and 80s last century", exploitative engineering of million mu tideland during "the ninth five-year and the tenth five-year Plan, coast development strategy of eastern Jiangsu in the 90s last century. Along with which there are many ecological environment problems and lead to a series of ecological environment effect including sedimentation and erosion change of coast, area change of regional wetland, regional change of soil environment, biodiversity and water quality change, etc..
(6) This paper chooses the following eight natural and social economy factors as the driving factors(including distance to road, distance to coastline, distance to road, distance to continental shoreline, distance to residence, distance to river, distance to 5m depth contour, population density and density of agricultural output value) and land use type as dependent variable to do logistic regression. Outcomes have good interpretation effects because areas under ROC curve for all land types are above 0.7. This thesis stimulates LUCC of 2006 based on data from remote sensing interpretation by using the CLUE-S model. By contrasting to the interpretation data of 2006, it indicates that emulation and actual result have a better consistency. Kappa index is 0.8675. These show the CLUE-S Model can simulate the LUCC of Jiangsu coast.
(7) Based on scenarios of food security, ecological safety, economic development and integrative development, this article simulates the spatial pattern for land cover of Jiangsu coast by CLUE-S in 2015. By means of comprehensive analysis for simulation result of four aforementioned scenarios, the author thinks that the integrative development scenario is more excellent than other scenarios of prospective land use and cover in Jiangsu coast.
(8) Guided by the principle of "develop in protecting and protect in developing", "standing out advantage and in line with local conditions", "overall planning, rational division and multi-side coordination", sustainable land use of Jiangsu coast in the future should choose multi-objective optimization strategy as follow:intensively developing port and industry construction, optimizing seashore agriculture, actively developing seashore ecotourism and reasonably building ecological protection shelters.
The innovation of this paper can be listed as follows:
(1) The author studies land use and cover in Jiangsu coast by using LUCC theories and methods. Where performs qualitative, positioning and quantitative analyses for LUCC of Jiangsu coast during the last two decades to disclose temporal-spatial processes and their laws by taking "temporal process" and "spatial pattern" as paramount, integrating several kinds of multiple quantitative analysis methods and spatial analysis technologies, building a series of temporal dynamics and spatial pattern models. It comprehensively utilize research approaches from geography, environmental science, landscape ecology and land science, which supplements the coastal regional cases of LUCC from the angle of demonstration.
(2) Combining qualitative with quantitative analysis means, try to apply time scale mind to disclose the dynamic mechanisms of driving factors for LUCC in Jiangsu coast. The natural factors, including sedimentation and erosion change of seashore and sea level rising et al.., belong to a long time scale and influence the base of LUCC pattern. However the social-economic factors which include population growth, ownership of land and economic system reforms, tidal flat economic development and gradual implement of coastal developing strategy etc.. belong to a short time scale and influence strip changes of land use and cover. Social-economic factors are the main driving forces for the LUCC of Jiangsu coast in the last two decades because there are close correlation between per capita industrial output value and saltern change, country labour power density and construction land change, gross grain output and arable land change. Principal driving force of LUCC in Jiangsu coast will possible come from coast development strategy promotion in the future.
(3) In this paper, the Logistics analysis and CLUE-S model have been successfully adopted in research areas for scenario simulation after modifying parameters, whose validity has been testified. Based on the fully research for characteristics of land use and cover in Jiangsu coast, the author sets up four scenarios including food security, ecological safety, economic development and integrative development scenario to simulate spatial pattern of land use. The simulation results indicate that food security, ecological safety, economic development and integrative development scenario respectively belong toⅠ-Ⅳevolution stage of marine industry structure. By means of comprehensive analysis for simulation results of four aforementioned scenarios, the author thinks the integrative development scenario is more excellent than other scenarios of prospective land use and cover in Jiangsu coast under the background from updating of coastal developing strategy.
引文
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