有效经济增长的理论研究
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摘要
本文是一种理论的探讨,又是历史与现实的实证,其中心论题是对我国改革开放30年来有效经济增长的动态过程进行考察。循着一个新的构思,在比较深刻和广泛的意义上,刻画30年来我国有效经济增长的运行轨迹,剖析这种运行轨迹长期和短期的趋势和特征。指出在有效经济增长的动态过程中各经济变量相互作用的深层关系,从而为我国经济增长的理论研究,开拓一个新的思维空间。
为了达到上述目标,笔者提出了一系列新的概念,建立了新的理论模型,作为分析问题的工具。本文首先提出了包含基础消费水平变化、消费结构提升以及社会总消费力扩张等因素在内的经济增长的范畴——“有效经济增长”。有效经济增长指超过“人均基准消费水平”以上的那部分人均国民收入的增长。“人均基准消费水平”是指在一定时期内,维持人们最基本生活标准所需要的某一消费水平。“人均基准消费水平”在短期内基本保持不变,而在长期中将随社会经济的发展和实际收入水平的提高呈上升趋势。把超过“人均基准消费水平”以上的那部分人均收入,用“超额人均收入”来表示,并作为衡量有效经济增长的主要指标。在此基础上,建立了“有效经济增长动态模型”、“超额人均收入增损模型”和“超额人均收入增长率模型”。在此基础上运用这些理论模型的基本原理和变量关系对我国近30年来有效经济增长过程进行了实证考察,分析了我国有效经济增长的趋势特征、周期波动。
对我国有效经济增长动态过程的理论分析,是按照从抽象到具体的逻辑,循着从长期到短期的线索逐步展开的。全文共分七章:第一章为导论,简要介绍了本文的研究目标、研究方法,以及展开研究的内在逻辑,并对本文独创性的一些概念做了相关的界定;第二章对经济增长理论演变历程及国内外学者对中国经济增长问题的研究情况进行简要回顾;第三章通过抽象的理论分析,建立“有效经济增长动态模型”、“超额人均收入增损模型”和“超额人均收入增长率模型”,阐述了实现有效经济增长的条件。第四章由抽象上升为具体,根据中国经济增长的实际资料,按照“有效经济增长动态模型”的理论原则和变量关系,对我国“超额人均收入”、“人均基准消费”、“有效经济减损系数”等相关变量进行了测定。对我国改革开放30年来的有效经济增长的动态过程、长期趋势中所呈现的基本特征进行了实证分析,并指出了我国城乡之间的有效经济增长趋势特征的差异性。第五章主要运用短期分析、长期比较的方法,考察了我国有效经济增长的周期性波动。提出了我国有效经济增长周期波动的生成机制、“有效经济增长”周期波动的特征及对长期趋势的影响。第六章运用“有效经济增长动态模型”,分析日本、中国台湾自其进入经济起飞阶段以来,有效经济增长动态过程。比较日本、中国大陆与中国台湾在经济起飞与转型阶段,“有效经济增长”过程中的共同特征与不同特性。第七章总结全文,得出文章结论与进一步研究方向。
基于“有效经济增长动态模型”的理论分析与实证考察,主要结论如下:
1.改革开放30年来,我国“有效经济增长”的趋势特征表现为平稳、阶段性加速上升,人均基准消费随社会经济的发展和实际收入水平的提高缓慢上升。从城乡比较来看,我国城镇部门有效经济增长与农村部门相比具有水平高、速度快的趋势特征,且人均基准消费水平也大大高于农村。
2.我国有效经济增长的减损量逐渐提升,而减损强度逐渐降低。从三大需求对有效经济增长的拉动力来看,超额人均消费的拉动力偏低,投资与消费贡献率的严重失衡,成为未来我国有效经济增长的隐忧。从城乡比较来看,我国城镇居民人均基准消费水平、消费结构、边际消费倾向、收入弹性等均高于农村居民;并且城镇部门有效经济增长的减损量大于农村部门,而减损强度小于农村部门。可见,城市化进程也是推动我国有效经济增长的重要因素。
3.我国有效经济增长也表现出周期性波动特征,与一般意义上的经济周期相比,表现出波长短、振幅大的特点,体现了人均基准消费水平C_0与社会消费力P的减损效应,对有效经济增长周期性波动的强化作用。并指出“需求约束—资源约束—制度约束”并存的非均衡态是我国有效经济增长周期性波动的根源,同时在比较投资与消费对有效经济增长周期波动影响的过程中发现,二者作用机制完全不同,短期内投资冲击更为明显,而长期消费更为显著。
4.通过国际比较发现:与日本、我国台湾经济起飞阶段相比,我国有效经济增长水平低、速度慢,居民消费结构相对落后,消费对有效经济增长的拉动力不足。然而,从现阶段来看,我国有效经济增长正处于加速上升阶段,而日本、我国台湾目前都处于停滞不前或负增长阶段。但与日台相比,我国目前的减损系数偏高、有效经济增长的阻滞力偏大。因此,需要行之有效的政策效应,以克服有效经济增长的减损强度,增强消费的拉动作用,实现我国有效经济增长的持续性、稳定性。
This paper is not only a theoretical discussion, but also contains analyses based on actual cases. The core content is a survey of the dynamic course of the effective economic growth in China during the 30 years since reform and opening-up. On deeply and widely basis, the paper describes the track of the effective economic growth in China during the last 30 years, analyzes the underlying rules of the track in the short term and long term, and points out the deep mutual relations of the economic variables in the formation of the trend, and thus develops a new concept for the theoretical research of Chinese economic growth.
In order to achieve the above aims, the author develops a series of new concepts and new theoretical models for analyzing problems. First, the author introduced the concept of "effective economic growth", including the changes of basic consumption level, the upgrading of consumption structure and the expansion of gross social consumption capacity, etc. Effective economic growth refers to the growth of national income per capita exceeding the "baseline consumption level per capita" as the scale and level of gross social consumption capacity are changing. "Baseline consumption level per capita" means the average consumption level for maintaining the basic living standard of a person within a certain period. "Baseline consumption level per capita" keeps stable within a short period, but in the long term, it will go upward along with the development of social economy and the increase of the actual income level. The income per capita exceeding the "baseline consumption level per capita" is called "excess income per capita", and is regarded as the main indicator for measuring effective economic growth. And on this basis, the "Dynamic model for effective economic growth", "gain-loss model for excess income per capita" and "increase rate model for excess income per capita" are set up. The basic principles and quantitative relations of these theoretical models are made use of to probe into the effective economic growth process in China during the last 30 years, and thus the trend and periodic fluctuation of the effective economic growth in China are explained quantitatively.
The theoretical analysis of the effective economic growth process in China is rolled out first abstractly and then concretely from long term to short term. The paper contains seven chapters. Chapter 1 is introduction, which briefly introduces the purpose, method and internal logic of the research, and gives the definitions for the innovative concepts in the paper. The second chapter simply reviews the evolution of economic growth theories and the studies on Chinese economic growth carried out by Chinese and foreign scholars. In the third chapter, "dynamic model for effective economic growth", "gain-loss model for excess income per capita" and "increase rate model for excess income per capita" are set up through abstract theoretical analysis, and conditions for realizing effective economic growth are described. Chapter 4 goes to concrete things. According to the records of Chinese economic growth and the theoretical principle and variable relations of "dynamic model for effective economic growth", measurement is made of such variables as "excess income per capita", "baseline consumption per capita", "effective economic derogation coefficient", etc. The dynamic process of effective economic growth during the 30 years starting from the reform and opening-up in China and the basic characteristics shown in the long term are analyzed on the basis of practical cases, and the difference between the features of effective economic growth trend in urban and rural areas are pointed out. In chapter 5, short-term and long-term comparison is made for reviewing the periodical fluctuation of the effective economic growth in China. The generation mechanism and characteristics of the periodical fluctuation of the effective economic growth in China and its influence on the long-term trend are described. In the sixth chapter, the "dynamic model for effective economic growth" is used for analyzing the dynamic process of effective economic growth in Japan and Taiwan China ever since their economic take-off, and the common features and differences of the "effective economic growth" process among Japan, mainland China and Taiwan China during their economic take-off and transition periods. In chapter 7, a conclusion is drawn and the direction of further study is pointed out.
According to the theoretical analysis and practical investigation of the "dynamic model for effective economic growth", conclusion is drawn as follows:
1. During the 30 years after reform and opening-up in China, the trend of "effective economic growth" has been stable and also increases on accelerating basis periodically, and the baseline consumption per capita grows slowly as the social economy develops and the actual income level increases. Comparing the effective economic growth in urban and rural areas, the former enjoys higher level and quicker speed than the later, and the baseline consumption level per capita in urban areas is much higher than that in the rural areas.
2. The absolute derogation of effective economic operation in China increases gradually, while the intensity of derogation decreases bit by bit. Viewing from the contribution rate of the three demands on effective economic growth, the contribution rate of excess consumption per capita is low, and contribution rates of investment and consumption of are obviously unbalanced, which becomes the potential hindrance for the Chinese effective economic growth in future. Comparing the situation in urban and rural areas, the baseline consumption level, consumption structure, marginal propensity to consume, revenue flexibility, etc. in urban areas are better than those in rural areas, and the derogation of effective economic growth in urban areas are larger than that in rural areas, but the derogation intensity is smaller. It can be seen that urbanization can facilitate the overall effective economic operation speed in China, but the pace of urbanization should be well controlled.
3. Effective economic cycle shows the characteristics of short wavelength and large amplitude, presenting the derogation effect of baseline consumption level per capita (C_0) and social consumption capacity (P) as well as the intensifying effect toward the periodical fluctuation of the effective economic growth. The paper also points out that the unbalanced state caused by the coexistence of "demand restriction, resource restriction and system restriction" is the root cause of the periodical fluctuation of the effective economic growth. By comparing the influence of investment and consumption on the effective economic periodical fluctuation, it is discovered that the functioning mechanisms of the two are completely different. In the short term, the impact of investment is more obvious, while in the long term the consumption is more influential.
4. It is discovered through globally comparison that the effective economic growth in China is slower than and the people's consumption structure is relatively inferior to that in Japan and Taiwan China in the economic take-off period, and the consumption in China is not strong enough for driving the effective economic growth. However, the effective economic growth in China is now seeing a progress, but that in Japan and Taiwan China is seeing stagnation or negative growth, so it is hopeful for China to realize sustainable effective economic growth. For achieving this and dealing with the high derogation coefficient and hindrance for effective economic growth, Chinese government should issue effective policies and take powerful measures to enhance the driven force of consumption, so that the effective economic growth can be continuous and stable.
为了达到上述目标,笔者提出了一系列新的概念,建立了新的理论模型,作为分析问题的工具。本文首先提出了包含基础消费水平变化、消费结构提升以及社会总消费力扩张等因素在内的经济增长的范畴——“有效经济增长”。有效经济增长指超过“人均基准消费水平”以上的那部分人均国民收入的增长。“人均基准消费水平”是指在一定时期内,维持人们最基本生活标准所需要的某一消费水平。“人均基准消费水平”在短期内基本保持不变,而在长期中将随社会经济的发展和实际收入水平的提高呈上升趋势。把超过“人均基准消费水平”以上的那部分人均收入,用“超额人均收入”来表示,并作为衡量有效经济增长的主要指标。在此基础上,建立了“有效经济增长动态模型”、“超额人均收入增损模型”和“超额人均收入增长率模型”。在此基础上运用这些理论模型的基本原理和变量关系对我国近30年来有效经济增长过程进行了实证考察,分析了我国有效经济增长的趋势特征、周期波动。
对我国有效经济增长动态过程的理论分析,是按照从抽象到具体的逻辑,循着从长期到短期的线索逐步展开的。全文共分七章:第一章为导论,简要介绍了本文的研究目标、研究方法,以及展开研究的内在逻辑,并对本文独创性的一些概念做了相关的界定;第二章对经济增长理论演变历程及国内外学者对中国经济增长问题的研究情况进行简要回顾;第三章通过抽象的理论分析,建立“有效经济增长动态模型”、“超额人均收入增损模型”和“超额人均收入增长率模型”,阐述了实现有效经济增长的条件。第四章由抽象上升为具体,根据中国经济增长的实际资料,按照“有效经济增长动态模型”的理论原则和变量关系,对我国“超额人均收入”、“人均基准消费”、“有效经济减损系数”等相关变量进行了测定。对我国改革开放30年来的有效经济增长的动态过程、长期趋势中所呈现的基本特征进行了实证分析,并指出了我国城乡之间的有效经济增长趋势特征的差异性。第五章主要运用短期分析、长期比较的方法,考察了我国有效经济增长的周期性波动。提出了我国有效经济增长周期波动的生成机制、“有效经济增长”周期波动的特征及对长期趋势的影响。第六章运用“有效经济增长动态模型”,分析日本、中国台湾自其进入经济起飞阶段以来,有效经济增长动态过程。比较日本、中国大陆与中国台湾在经济起飞与转型阶段,“有效经济增长”过程中的共同特征与不同特性。第七章总结全文,得出文章结论与进一步研究方向。
基于“有效经济增长动态模型”的理论分析与实证考察,主要结论如下:
1.改革开放30年来,我国“有效经济增长”的趋势特征表现为平稳、阶段性加速上升,人均基准消费随社会经济的发展和实际收入水平的提高缓慢上升。从城乡比较来看,我国城镇部门有效经济增长与农村部门相比具有水平高、速度快的趋势特征,且人均基准消费水平也大大高于农村。
2.我国有效经济增长的减损量逐渐提升,而减损强度逐渐降低。从三大需求对有效经济增长的拉动力来看,超额人均消费的拉动力偏低,投资与消费贡献率的严重失衡,成为未来我国有效经济增长的隐忧。从城乡比较来看,我国城镇居民人均基准消费水平、消费结构、边际消费倾向、收入弹性等均高于农村居民;并且城镇部门有效经济增长的减损量大于农村部门,而减损强度小于农村部门。可见,城市化进程也是推动我国有效经济增长的重要因素。
3.我国有效经济增长也表现出周期性波动特征,与一般意义上的经济周期相比,表现出波长短、振幅大的特点,体现了人均基准消费水平C_0与社会消费力P的减损效应,对有效经济增长周期性波动的强化作用。并指出“需求约束—资源约束—制度约束”并存的非均衡态是我国有效经济增长周期性波动的根源,同时在比较投资与消费对有效经济增长周期波动影响的过程中发现,二者作用机制完全不同,短期内投资冲击更为明显,而长期消费更为显著。
4.通过国际比较发现:与日本、我国台湾经济起飞阶段相比,我国有效经济增长水平低、速度慢,居民消费结构相对落后,消费对有效经济增长的拉动力不足。然而,从现阶段来看,我国有效经济增长正处于加速上升阶段,而日本、我国台湾目前都处于停滞不前或负增长阶段。但与日台相比,我国目前的减损系数偏高、有效经济增长的阻滞力偏大。因此,需要行之有效的政策效应,以克服有效经济增长的减损强度,增强消费的拉动作用,实现我国有效经济增长的持续性、稳定性。
This paper is not only a theoretical discussion, but also contains analyses based on actual cases. The core content is a survey of the dynamic course of the effective economic growth in China during the 30 years since reform and opening-up. On deeply and widely basis, the paper describes the track of the effective economic growth in China during the last 30 years, analyzes the underlying rules of the track in the short term and long term, and points out the deep mutual relations of the economic variables in the formation of the trend, and thus develops a new concept for the theoretical research of Chinese economic growth.
In order to achieve the above aims, the author develops a series of new concepts and new theoretical models for analyzing problems. First, the author introduced the concept of "effective economic growth", including the changes of basic consumption level, the upgrading of consumption structure and the expansion of gross social consumption capacity, etc. Effective economic growth refers to the growth of national income per capita exceeding the "baseline consumption level per capita" as the scale and level of gross social consumption capacity are changing. "Baseline consumption level per capita" means the average consumption level for maintaining the basic living standard of a person within a certain period. "Baseline consumption level per capita" keeps stable within a short period, but in the long term, it will go upward along with the development of social economy and the increase of the actual income level. The income per capita exceeding the "baseline consumption level per capita" is called "excess income per capita", and is regarded as the main indicator for measuring effective economic growth. And on this basis, the "Dynamic model for effective economic growth", "gain-loss model for excess income per capita" and "increase rate model for excess income per capita" are set up. The basic principles and quantitative relations of these theoretical models are made use of to probe into the effective economic growth process in China during the last 30 years, and thus the trend and periodic fluctuation of the effective economic growth in China are explained quantitatively.
The theoretical analysis of the effective economic growth process in China is rolled out first abstractly and then concretely from long term to short term. The paper contains seven chapters. Chapter 1 is introduction, which briefly introduces the purpose, method and internal logic of the research, and gives the definitions for the innovative concepts in the paper. The second chapter simply reviews the evolution of economic growth theories and the studies on Chinese economic growth carried out by Chinese and foreign scholars. In the third chapter, "dynamic model for effective economic growth", "gain-loss model for excess income per capita" and "increase rate model for excess income per capita" are set up through abstract theoretical analysis, and conditions for realizing effective economic growth are described. Chapter 4 goes to concrete things. According to the records of Chinese economic growth and the theoretical principle and variable relations of "dynamic model for effective economic growth", measurement is made of such variables as "excess income per capita", "baseline consumption per capita", "effective economic derogation coefficient", etc. The dynamic process of effective economic growth during the 30 years starting from the reform and opening-up in China and the basic characteristics shown in the long term are analyzed on the basis of practical cases, and the difference between the features of effective economic growth trend in urban and rural areas are pointed out. In chapter 5, short-term and long-term comparison is made for reviewing the periodical fluctuation of the effective economic growth in China. The generation mechanism and characteristics of the periodical fluctuation of the effective economic growth in China and its influence on the long-term trend are described. In the sixth chapter, the "dynamic model for effective economic growth" is used for analyzing the dynamic process of effective economic growth in Japan and Taiwan China ever since their economic take-off, and the common features and differences of the "effective economic growth" process among Japan, mainland China and Taiwan China during their economic take-off and transition periods. In chapter 7, a conclusion is drawn and the direction of further study is pointed out.
According to the theoretical analysis and practical investigation of the "dynamic model for effective economic growth", conclusion is drawn as follows:
1. During the 30 years after reform and opening-up in China, the trend of "effective economic growth" has been stable and also increases on accelerating basis periodically, and the baseline consumption per capita grows slowly as the social economy develops and the actual income level increases. Comparing the effective economic growth in urban and rural areas, the former enjoys higher level and quicker speed than the later, and the baseline consumption level per capita in urban areas is much higher than that in the rural areas.
2. The absolute derogation of effective economic operation in China increases gradually, while the intensity of derogation decreases bit by bit. Viewing from the contribution rate of the three demands on effective economic growth, the contribution rate of excess consumption per capita is low, and contribution rates of investment and consumption of are obviously unbalanced, which becomes the potential hindrance for the Chinese effective economic growth in future. Comparing the situation in urban and rural areas, the baseline consumption level, consumption structure, marginal propensity to consume, revenue flexibility, etc. in urban areas are better than those in rural areas, and the derogation of effective economic growth in urban areas are larger than that in rural areas, but the derogation intensity is smaller. It can be seen that urbanization can facilitate the overall effective economic operation speed in China, but the pace of urbanization should be well controlled.
3. Effective economic cycle shows the characteristics of short wavelength and large amplitude, presenting the derogation effect of baseline consumption level per capita (C_0) and social consumption capacity (P) as well as the intensifying effect toward the periodical fluctuation of the effective economic growth. The paper also points out that the unbalanced state caused by the coexistence of "demand restriction, resource restriction and system restriction" is the root cause of the periodical fluctuation of the effective economic growth. By comparing the influence of investment and consumption on the effective economic periodical fluctuation, it is discovered that the functioning mechanisms of the two are completely different. In the short term, the impact of investment is more obvious, while in the long term the consumption is more influential.
4. It is discovered through globally comparison that the effective economic growth in China is slower than and the people's consumption structure is relatively inferior to that in Japan and Taiwan China in the economic take-off period, and the consumption in China is not strong enough for driving the effective economic growth. However, the effective economic growth in China is now seeing a progress, but that in Japan and Taiwan China is seeing stagnation or negative growth, so it is hopeful for China to realize sustainable effective economic growth. For achieving this and dealing with the high derogation coefficient and hindrance for effective economic growth, Chinese government should issue effective policies and take powerful measures to enhance the driven force of consumption, so that the effective economic growth can be continuous and stable.
引文
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