中国木薯生物燃料产业发展实证分析
摘要
随着我国经济的高速增长,工业的重化特征使得能源供需关系日趋紧张,环境压力日益加大,催生了生物燃料产业蓬勃发展。然而,以高耗粮为主要特征的第一代生物燃料对我国粮食安全形成了巨大的隐患,通过粮价的蝴蝶效应,直接威胁到贫困居民的基本生活。因此,当前发展生物燃料必须遵循原料的“非粮”路线。木薯,“耐干旱,耐贫瘠,耐高温,单产高”,是我国第六大热带作物。作为重要的淀粉作物,木薯在生物燃料中扮演着重要的角色,成为第一代生物燃料向第二代生物燃料过渡的重要原料之一。
本论文通过对相关文献研习、历史数据分析、行业发展研究以及农户实地调研,对生物质能发展的必然性、木薯在生物燃料中的地位、木薯生物燃料产业的影响及其发展前景进行了定性和定量的分析,得出了研究结论。
首先,从化石资源存量出发,提出了生物燃料在石油危机背景中产生的必然性。
其次,从资源比较优势角度出发,分析了木薯在生物燃料中的战略地位。研究表明,在第一代生物燃料向第二代过渡中,较其他生物燃料原料而言,木薯在能源产出、单位土地种植成本、潜在生物燃料产能、土地资源、生物燃料技术等方面具有比较优势。木薯生物燃料在生物液态燃料中的优势地位明显,对促进我国生物燃料产业发展有着积极的推动作用。
第三,运用盈亏平衡分析了影响木薯生物燃料项目投资的不确定性因素,并通过汽油价格与石油价格的相关关系,测算了有无政府补贴情景下木薯生物燃料盈亏平衡点上木薯与石油的损益平衡价,同时预测了2010~2020年木薯燃料乙醇的政策成本。研究表明,2010~2014年,木薯燃料乙醇收益处于亏损区,需要进行政府补贴才能保证5%利润率;2015~2020年,在保证其他因素不变下,由于石油价格的持续上涨,木薯生物燃料具有政策可行性。
第四,基于农户层面,构建农户家庭经营纯收入影响模型和木薯成本-收益函数。研究表明,在同样资源禀赋下,产业化经营比分散经营收入高,化肥、种子是木薯产出的重要投入要素,良种良法的推广有利于木薯产量的提高。
第五,运用SWOT方法,对我国木薯生物燃料产业的发展进行战略规划。研究表明,在短时期内,木薯生物燃料产业对农户、企业以及区域经济发展有着积极的作用,应采取推进型战略。然而,从长期来看,由于第二代生物燃料应用技术的提高以及土地资源的有限性,使得木薯生物燃料产业将不具有竞争优势,应当考虑防御型战略,将木薯原料转向淀粉、酒精等传统加工产业。
With the rapid economical development in China, heavy chemical industry-led model of economic development which brought out nervous relation between supply and demand of energy and growing pressure on environment and resources gave birth to the biofuel industry development. However, the first generation of biofuel which is used grain as feedstock led to the food insecurity. Meanwhile, the butterfly effect of grain effect threatens the basic life of poor people. Therefore, the current development of biofuel should follow the non-grain route. Cassava is famous as“granary of under ground”,“King of starch”. It can adapt to the drought, high temperature climate and poor soil. It is China's sixth largest tropical crops. As an important starchy crop, cassava plays an important role on the biofuel industry. It became one of the most important raw materials on the transition from first-generation bio-fuels to the second-generation.
After study on related literature, historical data analysis, industry research and farmer investigation, this paper analyzed the necessity for the development of biomass energy, cassava status in the bio-fuel industry, cassava biofuel effects and its development prospects with qualitatively and quantitative methods, then obtained research results.
Firstly, from the angle of fossil resources, this paper analyzed the inevitability of biofuel on the background of oil crisis.
Secondly, from the perspective of comparative advantages of resources, this paper analyzed the strategic position of cassava in biofuel industry. Compare to the other energy crops, results showed that in the transition from the first generation biofuel to the second generation, cassava had comparative advantage in the energy output, cost per unit of land cultivated, the potential of biofuel production, land resources, technology, etc. The position of cassava biofuel was obvious in the bio-liquid fuel, and it had a positive role in promoting on the development of bio-fuel industry.
Thirdly, break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis was used in this paper to analyze the impact of the cassava biofuel investment project. After calculated the correlation between gasoline prices and oil prices, this paper measured two scenario (non government subsidy and 1373 RMB/t subsidy) breakeven prices of cassava bio-fuel and oil. And then forecasted the cassava fuel ethanol policy cost from 2010 to 2020. Studies show that from 2010 to 2014, cassava fuel ethanol will be in the red zone benefits which need government subsidies to ensure 5% profit margin while from 2015 to 2020, in the assumption of other factors constant, as the oil prices continued to rise which is rather faster than the cassava price, cassava bio-fuel have feasibility in the policy.
Fourth, based on household level, this paper constructed a model that explained the rural households’net income and an input-output function of cassava. The results showed that under the same resource endowment, those who took part in the industry management can obtain higher income than those who decentralized management. It also showed that those who invested more planting area, more fertilizers, and more seeds can acquire higher cassava output. What’s more, those where promoted the varieties good laws can improve the cassava production.
Fifth, using SWOT method, this paper analyzed the prospects of cassava bio-fuel industry development. The results showed that in the short term, promoting strategy should be adopted for the cassava bio-fuel industry was good for the farmers, enterprises and regional economic development. However, in the long run, facing the threaten of the second-generation biofuel and the limited land resources, cassava bio-fuel industry will not have a competitive advantage, it should consider the WT rategy, and cassava should be used in the cassava starch industry and alcohol processing industry .
本论文通过对相关文献研习、历史数据分析、行业发展研究以及农户实地调研,对生物质能发展的必然性、木薯在生物燃料中的地位、木薯生物燃料产业的影响及其发展前景进行了定性和定量的分析,得出了研究结论。
首先,从化石资源存量出发,提出了生物燃料在石油危机背景中产生的必然性。
其次,从资源比较优势角度出发,分析了木薯在生物燃料中的战略地位。研究表明,在第一代生物燃料向第二代过渡中,较其他生物燃料原料而言,木薯在能源产出、单位土地种植成本、潜在生物燃料产能、土地资源、生物燃料技术等方面具有比较优势。木薯生物燃料在生物液态燃料中的优势地位明显,对促进我国生物燃料产业发展有着积极的推动作用。
第三,运用盈亏平衡分析了影响木薯生物燃料项目投资的不确定性因素,并通过汽油价格与石油价格的相关关系,测算了有无政府补贴情景下木薯生物燃料盈亏平衡点上木薯与石油的损益平衡价,同时预测了2010~2020年木薯燃料乙醇的政策成本。研究表明,2010~2014年,木薯燃料乙醇收益处于亏损区,需要进行政府补贴才能保证5%利润率;2015~2020年,在保证其他因素不变下,由于石油价格的持续上涨,木薯生物燃料具有政策可行性。
第四,基于农户层面,构建农户家庭经营纯收入影响模型和木薯成本-收益函数。研究表明,在同样资源禀赋下,产业化经营比分散经营收入高,化肥、种子是木薯产出的重要投入要素,良种良法的推广有利于木薯产量的提高。
第五,运用SWOT方法,对我国木薯生物燃料产业的发展进行战略规划。研究表明,在短时期内,木薯生物燃料产业对农户、企业以及区域经济发展有着积极的作用,应采取推进型战略。然而,从长期来看,由于第二代生物燃料应用技术的提高以及土地资源的有限性,使得木薯生物燃料产业将不具有竞争优势,应当考虑防御型战略,将木薯原料转向淀粉、酒精等传统加工产业。
With the rapid economical development in China, heavy chemical industry-led model of economic development which brought out nervous relation between supply and demand of energy and growing pressure on environment and resources gave birth to the biofuel industry development. However, the first generation of biofuel which is used grain as feedstock led to the food insecurity. Meanwhile, the butterfly effect of grain effect threatens the basic life of poor people. Therefore, the current development of biofuel should follow the non-grain route. Cassava is famous as“granary of under ground”,“King of starch”. It can adapt to the drought, high temperature climate and poor soil. It is China's sixth largest tropical crops. As an important starchy crop, cassava plays an important role on the biofuel industry. It became one of the most important raw materials on the transition from first-generation bio-fuels to the second-generation.
After study on related literature, historical data analysis, industry research and farmer investigation, this paper analyzed the necessity for the development of biomass energy, cassava status in the bio-fuel industry, cassava biofuel effects and its development prospects with qualitatively and quantitative methods, then obtained research results.
Firstly, from the angle of fossil resources, this paper analyzed the inevitability of biofuel on the background of oil crisis.
Secondly, from the perspective of comparative advantages of resources, this paper analyzed the strategic position of cassava in biofuel industry. Compare to the other energy crops, results showed that in the transition from the first generation biofuel to the second generation, cassava had comparative advantage in the energy output, cost per unit of land cultivated, the potential of biofuel production, land resources, technology, etc. The position of cassava biofuel was obvious in the bio-liquid fuel, and it had a positive role in promoting on the development of bio-fuel industry.
Thirdly, break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis was used in this paper to analyze the impact of the cassava biofuel investment project. After calculated the correlation between gasoline prices and oil prices, this paper measured two scenario (non government subsidy and 1373 RMB/t subsidy) breakeven prices of cassava bio-fuel and oil. And then forecasted the cassava fuel ethanol policy cost from 2010 to 2020. Studies show that from 2010 to 2014, cassava fuel ethanol will be in the red zone benefits which need government subsidies to ensure 5% profit margin while from 2015 to 2020, in the assumption of other factors constant, as the oil prices continued to rise which is rather faster than the cassava price, cassava bio-fuel have feasibility in the policy.
Fourth, based on household level, this paper constructed a model that explained the rural households’net income and an input-output function of cassava. The results showed that under the same resource endowment, those who took part in the industry management can obtain higher income than those who decentralized management. It also showed that those who invested more planting area, more fertilizers, and more seeds can acquire higher cassava output. What’s more, those where promoted the varieties good laws can improve the cassava production.
Fifth, using SWOT method, this paper analyzed the prospects of cassava bio-fuel industry development. The results showed that in the short term, promoting strategy should be adopted for the cassava bio-fuel industry was good for the farmers, enterprises and regional economic development. However, in the long run, facing the threaten of the second-generation biofuel and the limited land resources, cassava bio-fuel industry will not have a competitive advantage, it should consider the WT rategy, and cassava should be used in the cassava starch industry and alcohol processing industry .
引文
1.柴麒敏,常世彦,张希良.基于ALTRANS模型的我国生物燃料发展潜力研究[J].管理学报,2008,5(5):642-646.
2.曹春梅.发展木薯产业是广西解决“三农”问题的重要途径[J].经济与社会发展,2003,1(9):18-20.
3.陈立胜,潘瑞坚.木薯酒精产业的社会效益和经济效益分析[J].广西轻工业,2007(12):24-25.
4.崔凯.中国生物质产业地图[M].北京:中国轻工业出版社,2007:1-50.
5.冯献,詹玲,李宁辉.生物质能源木薯占优[N].中国经济导报,2009年12月3日B3版.
6.关锐捷.以良种化和精深加工带动海南木薯产业化开发[J].农业产业化,2005(3):20-21.
7.郭绪全,韦本辉.广西生物质能源作物生产能力研究[M].南宁:广西科技出版社,2007:20-50.
8.胡志远,张成,浦耿强,等.木薯乙醇汽油生命周期能源、环境及经济性评价[J].内燃机工程,2004,25(1):13-16.
9.黄洁,李开绵,叶剑秋,等.我国木薯产业的抗风救灾措施及对策[J].中国热带农业,2005(6):41-43.
10.黄洁,李开绵,叶剑秋,等.中国木薯产业化的发展研究与对策[J].中国农学通报,2006,22(5):421-426.
11.蒋升勇.木薯产业化发展趋势与对策措施[J].市场论坛,2005(11):28-32.
12.冷如波.产品生命周期3E+S评价与决策分析方法研究[D].博士论文.上海交通大学,2007.
13.李惠贤,杨为芳.入世后广西木薯产业发展的对策[J].广西农业科学,2002(2):97-99.
14.李开绵,黄贵修.木薯主要病虫害[M].北京:中国农业科学技术出版社,2009:引言.
15.李宁辉,詹玲,冯献.我国木薯产业发展的SWOT分析及对策建议[J].农业展望,2010(5):28-32.
16.黎贞崇.影响木薯燃料乙醇产业发展的不利因素及对策[J].可再生能源,2008,26(3):106-110.
17.刘瑾,邬建国.生物燃料的发展现状与前景[J].生态学报,2008,28(4):1339-1353.
18.刘铁男.燃料乙醇与中国[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2004:35-65.
19.马晓河,蓝海涛,等.中国粮食综合生产能力与粮食安全[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2008:1-10.
20.马文彬,杨世先,张建康,等.木薯发展现状及玉溪发展木薯产业适应性研究[J].云南农业科技,2006(增刊):83-84.
21.牛若峰.再论农业产业一体化经营[J].农业经济问题,1997(2):18-24.
22.潘瑞坚.东盟贸易区与木薯产业化[A].中国热带作物学会学术研讨论文集[C],2005.
23.沈光.广西木薯产业的发展前景与对策[J].热带农业科学,2001(4):24-27.
24.孙智谋,周旭,刘丽萍.粮食危机与以木薯为原料生物质能源的开发利用[J].现代化工(增刊),2008,28(2):11-14.
25.谭冠宁,韦本辉.防城港市木薯产业的现状和发展对策[J].广西农学报,2008,23(2):79-81.
26.唐红英,胡延杰.国外生物质能源产业发展的经验和启示[J].世界林业研究,2008,21(3):72-74.
27.王富有,温春生.能源木薯产业发展政策研究[J].改革与战略,2008,24(2):106-107.
28.王利利,黎晓.广西甘蔗与木薯的效益比较——广西武鸣县甘蔗木薯调研启示[J].广西轻工业,2008(9):14-15.
29.王文泉,李开绵.借燃料乙醇工业发展东风开拓我国木薯产业新局面[J].热带农业科学,2003,23(3):34-40.
30.王文泉,李开绵,叶剑秋,等.我国的木薯优势区域概述[J].广西农业科学,2008,39(1):104-108.
31.王文泉,叶剑秋,李开绵,等.我国木薯酒精生产现状及产业发展关键技术——广西、海南木薯发展报告[J].热带农业科学,2006(8):44-49.
32.王晓凌,刘静.我国生物燃料乙醇可持续发展的SWOT分析及战略选择[J].农业经济问题,2008,增刊:146-151.
33.王耀钰,谢发明,陈宏高.广西发展木薯产业研究[J].企业科技与发展,2008(10):12-13.
34.王兆南.在进入WTO和木薯开发的机遇下如何开创广西木薯产业的新局面[J].广西经贸,2001(6):11-13.
35.王仲颖,任东明,高虎.中国可再生能源产业发展报告2008[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2009.
36.韦本辉.中国木薯蕴具巨大产业开发潜势[M].中国食物与营养,2001(5):17-18.
37.韦本辉.中国木薯栽培技术与产业发展[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2008:10-60.
38.韦威旭,韦本辉,陆柳英,等.广西发展木薯的耕地资源潜力分析[J].中国农村小康科技,2009(2):33-35.
39.温明炬,唐承杰.中国耕地后备资源[M].北京:中国大地出版社,2005:53.
40.文玉萍.广西木薯产业的竞争力急待提高[A] .第三届广西青年学术年会论文集(自然科学篇)[C].广西:广西淀粉协会,2004:191-195.
41.熊彬,白丽华.云南木薯产业的现状及发展战略[J].云南民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008,25(6):85-89.
42.许泳清.木薯生产利用现状及福建省发展木薯产业可行性分析[J].热带农业科学.2008,24(5):413-417.
43.严良政,张琳,王士强.中国能源作物生产生物乙醇的潜力及分布特点[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(5):213-216.
44.姚向君,王革华,田宜水.国外生物质能的政策与实践[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2006.
45.杨昆,黄季焜.以木薯为原料的燃料乙醇发展潜力:基于农户角度的分析[J].中国农村经济,2009(5):15-25.
46.杨军,仇焕广,黄季焜.生物液体能源发展对我国农业发展和粮食安全的影响[J].中国农业资源与区划,2008,29(4):1-4.
47.杨秋林.农业项目投资评估(第三版)[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2002:212-222.
48.杨绍品.抓住机遇发挥优势推进我国木薯产业更好更快地发展[J].中国热带农业.2006(5):4-6.
49.于平福,陆宇明,韦莉萍等.广西木薯生物质能产业的SWOT分析及策略选择[J].农村经济与科技,2009,20(9):71-73.
50.张成.代用燃料的生命周期3E评价及可持续设计[D].博士论文.上海交通大学,2003.
51.张菁.广西发展生物质能源土地潜力分析[J].市场论坛,2008(2):9-14.
52.张军,李小春等.国际能源战略与新能源技术进展[M] .北京:科学出版社,2008.
53.张振文,李开绵,黄洁,等.我国木薯产业发展形势与策略——广西武鸣县木薯产业发展启示[J].广西农业科学,2006,37(6):743-747.
54.钟甫宁.生物能源根本改变了世界粮价的决定因素[J].江苏农业经济,2008(5):24.
55.钟甫宁.世界粮食危机引发的思考[J].农业经济问题,2009(4):4-8.
56.中国可再生能源发展战略研究项目组.中国可再生能源发展战略研究丛书(生物质能卷)[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2008.
57.周生贤.中国森林资源报告[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2006:1-10.
58. Allem, A.C. The Origins and Taxonomy of Cassava [A]. Cassava: Biology, Production and Utilization[C].London,UK, 2002:1-16.
59. Allen Baker, Steven Zahniser. Ethanol Reshapes the Corn Market [J]. Amber Waves, 2007,5(special issue):66-71.
60. Cassava for food and energy security [OL]. http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2008/1000899/index.html.
61. CIAT, Cassava in Latin American and the Caribbean: Researches for Global Development[R], FAO corporate document repository, 1998.
62. Dai, D, Hu, Z.Y, Pu, G.Q. Energy Efficiency and Potentials of Cassava Fuel Ethanol in Guangxi Region of China [J]. Energy Conversion and Management,2006(47):1686-1699.
63. Dele Raheem; Chrysanthus Chukwuma, Foods from Cassava and Their Relevance to Nigeria and Other African Countries[J].Agriculture and Human Values, 2001(18):383-390.
64. FAO. Biofuels: prospects, risk and opportunities. The State of Food And Agriculture (SOFA),2008.
65. FAO, IFAD.A Review of Cassava in Latin America and the Caribbean with Country Case Studies on Brazil and Colombia. Proceedings of The Validation Forum on The Global Cassava Development Strategy, Rome, Vol.4, 2002.
66. F.O.Olasantan, H.C.Ezumah, E.O.Lucas Effects of intercropping with maize on the micro-environment, growth and yield of cassava[J].Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment,1996(57): 149-158.
67. Gibbons, A. new view of early Amazonia [J]. Science,1990(248):1488-1490.
68. Hillocks R J, Thresh J M, Bellotti A C. Cassava: Biology, Production and Utilization. Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Kent, UK,2002.
69. International Center for Tropical Agriculture (ICTA). A review of cassava in Asia with country case studies on Thailand and Vietnam[R]. Proceedings of the validation forum on the global cassava development strategy. Rome, 2000(4):26-28.
70. Kazuo Kawano. The Role of Improved Cassava Cultivars in Generating Income for Better Farm Management. Cassava’s Potential in the 21st Century: Present Situation and Future Research and Development Needs. Proceedings of the Sixth Regional Workshop held in Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Feb 21-25, 2000.
71. Klanarong Srirot. Cassava industry in Thailand: The status of technology and utilization. International Symposium on Cassava, Starch and Starch Derivatives,Guangxi (China), 11-15 Nov 1996, Bangkok (Thailand). 2000:169-180.
72. Neylor, R., Liska, A.J., Burke, M.B. The ripple effect: biofuels, food security, and the environment[J]. Environment,2007,49(9):31-43.
73. Olumide O.Tewe, Nebambi Lutaladion. Cassava for Livestock Feed in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Global Cassava Development Strategy, Rome, 2004.
74. Paul C. Westcott. U.S. Ethanol Expansion Driving Changes throughout the Agricultural Sector [J]. Amber Waves, 2007,5(1):10-15.
75. Peter Neuenschwander, Biological Control of the Cassava Mealybug in Africa: A Review [J]. Biological Control, 2001(21):214-229.
76. R.H. Howeler, S.L. Tan. Cassava’s Potential in the 21st Century: Present Situation and Future Research and Development Needs [C]. Proceedings of the Sixth Regional Workshop held in Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Feb 21-25,2000.
77. R.J.Hillocks, J.M.Thresh and A.C.Bellotti. Cassava: Biology, Production and Utilization [M]. Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Kent, UK,2002.
78. Rajagopal D, Sexton SE, Roland-Host D, et al. Challenge of biofuel: filling the tank without emptying the stomach [J]. Environmental Research Letters,2007(2):1-9.
79. Rajagopal,D.,Zilberman,D.Review of environmental, economic and policy aspects of biofuels[A].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No.4341[C],Washington, DC,WorldBank.
80. Richard K. Perrin. Ethanol and Food Price-A Preliminary Assessment [J]. Agricultural Economics, 2008(1):3-8.
81. Rogers, D.J. and Fleming, H.S. Monograph of Manihot esculenta Crantz [J]. Economic Botany, 1973, (27):1-114.
82. Scott Malcolm, Marcel Aillery.Growing Crops for Biofuels Has Spillover Effects [J]. Amber Waves, 2009,7(1):10-15.
83. Senauer,B.& Sur,M. .Ending global hunger in the 21st century: projections of the number of food insecure people[J].Review of Agricultural Economics,2001,23(1):68-81.
84. Shahla Shapouri, Stacey Rosen.Energy Price Implications for Food Security in Developing Countries[R]. Food Security Assessment, 2006 / GFA-18.Economic Research Service/USDA.
85. Tao Yu. Life Cycle Simulation-based Economic and Risk Assessment of Biomass-based Fuel Ethanol (BFE) Projects in Deferent Feedstock Planting Areas [J]. Energy,2008(33):375-384.
86. Truman P. Phillips, Daphne S. Taylor, Lateef Sanni. A Cassava Industrial Revolution in Nigeria[R]. The Global Cassava Development Strategy, Rome, 2004.
87. Vicent Lebot.Trapical Root and Tuber Crops: Cassava, Sweet Potato, Yams and Aroids[R]. Crop Production Science in Horticulture Series:17, 2008.
88. William Coyle. The Future of Biofuels: A Global Perspective [J]. Amber Waves, 2007,5(5):24-29.
89. Yu,S.& Tao, J.Life cycle simulation-based economic and risk assessment of biomass-based fuel ethanol (BFE) projects in defferent feedstock planting areas. Energy, 2008(33):375-384.
2.曹春梅.发展木薯产业是广西解决“三农”问题的重要途径[J].经济与社会发展,2003,1(9):18-20.
3.陈立胜,潘瑞坚.木薯酒精产业的社会效益和经济效益分析[J].广西轻工业,2007(12):24-25.
4.崔凯.中国生物质产业地图[M].北京:中国轻工业出版社,2007:1-50.
5.冯献,詹玲,李宁辉.生物质能源木薯占优[N].中国经济导报,2009年12月3日B3版.
6.关锐捷.以良种化和精深加工带动海南木薯产业化开发[J].农业产业化,2005(3):20-21.
7.郭绪全,韦本辉.广西生物质能源作物生产能力研究[M].南宁:广西科技出版社,2007:20-50.
8.胡志远,张成,浦耿强,等.木薯乙醇汽油生命周期能源、环境及经济性评价[J].内燃机工程,2004,25(1):13-16.
9.黄洁,李开绵,叶剑秋,等.我国木薯产业的抗风救灾措施及对策[J].中国热带农业,2005(6):41-43.
10.黄洁,李开绵,叶剑秋,等.中国木薯产业化的发展研究与对策[J].中国农学通报,2006,22(5):421-426.
11.蒋升勇.木薯产业化发展趋势与对策措施[J].市场论坛,2005(11):28-32.
12.冷如波.产品生命周期3E+S评价与决策分析方法研究[D].博士论文.上海交通大学,2007.
13.李惠贤,杨为芳.入世后广西木薯产业发展的对策[J].广西农业科学,2002(2):97-99.
14.李开绵,黄贵修.木薯主要病虫害[M].北京:中国农业科学技术出版社,2009:引言.
15.李宁辉,詹玲,冯献.我国木薯产业发展的SWOT分析及对策建议[J].农业展望,2010(5):28-32.
16.黎贞崇.影响木薯燃料乙醇产业发展的不利因素及对策[J].可再生能源,2008,26(3):106-110.
17.刘瑾,邬建国.生物燃料的发展现状与前景[J].生态学报,2008,28(4):1339-1353.
18.刘铁男.燃料乙醇与中国[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2004:35-65.
19.马晓河,蓝海涛,等.中国粮食综合生产能力与粮食安全[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2008:1-10.
20.马文彬,杨世先,张建康,等.木薯发展现状及玉溪发展木薯产业适应性研究[J].云南农业科技,2006(增刊):83-84.
21.牛若峰.再论农业产业一体化经营[J].农业经济问题,1997(2):18-24.
22.潘瑞坚.东盟贸易区与木薯产业化[A].中国热带作物学会学术研讨论文集[C],2005.
23.沈光.广西木薯产业的发展前景与对策[J].热带农业科学,2001(4):24-27.
24.孙智谋,周旭,刘丽萍.粮食危机与以木薯为原料生物质能源的开发利用[J].现代化工(增刊),2008,28(2):11-14.
25.谭冠宁,韦本辉.防城港市木薯产业的现状和发展对策[J].广西农学报,2008,23(2):79-81.
26.唐红英,胡延杰.国外生物质能源产业发展的经验和启示[J].世界林业研究,2008,21(3):72-74.
27.王富有,温春生.能源木薯产业发展政策研究[J].改革与战略,2008,24(2):106-107.
28.王利利,黎晓.广西甘蔗与木薯的效益比较——广西武鸣县甘蔗木薯调研启示[J].广西轻工业,2008(9):14-15.
29.王文泉,李开绵.借燃料乙醇工业发展东风开拓我国木薯产业新局面[J].热带农业科学,2003,23(3):34-40.
30.王文泉,李开绵,叶剑秋,等.我国的木薯优势区域概述[J].广西农业科学,2008,39(1):104-108.
31.王文泉,叶剑秋,李开绵,等.我国木薯酒精生产现状及产业发展关键技术——广西、海南木薯发展报告[J].热带农业科学,2006(8):44-49.
32.王晓凌,刘静.我国生物燃料乙醇可持续发展的SWOT分析及战略选择[J].农业经济问题,2008,增刊:146-151.
33.王耀钰,谢发明,陈宏高.广西发展木薯产业研究[J].企业科技与发展,2008(10):12-13.
34.王兆南.在进入WTO和木薯开发的机遇下如何开创广西木薯产业的新局面[J].广西经贸,2001(6):11-13.
35.王仲颖,任东明,高虎.中国可再生能源产业发展报告2008[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2009.
36.韦本辉.中国木薯蕴具巨大产业开发潜势[M].中国食物与营养,2001(5):17-18.
37.韦本辉.中国木薯栽培技术与产业发展[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2008:10-60.
38.韦威旭,韦本辉,陆柳英,等.广西发展木薯的耕地资源潜力分析[J].中国农村小康科技,2009(2):33-35.
39.温明炬,唐承杰.中国耕地后备资源[M].北京:中国大地出版社,2005:53.
40.文玉萍.广西木薯产业的竞争力急待提高[A] .第三届广西青年学术年会论文集(自然科学篇)[C].广西:广西淀粉协会,2004:191-195.
41.熊彬,白丽华.云南木薯产业的现状及发展战略[J].云南民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008,25(6):85-89.
42.许泳清.木薯生产利用现状及福建省发展木薯产业可行性分析[J].热带农业科学.2008,24(5):413-417.
43.严良政,张琳,王士强.中国能源作物生产生物乙醇的潜力及分布特点[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(5):213-216.
44.姚向君,王革华,田宜水.国外生物质能的政策与实践[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2006.
45.杨昆,黄季焜.以木薯为原料的燃料乙醇发展潜力:基于农户角度的分析[J].中国农村经济,2009(5):15-25.
46.杨军,仇焕广,黄季焜.生物液体能源发展对我国农业发展和粮食安全的影响[J].中国农业资源与区划,2008,29(4):1-4.
47.杨秋林.农业项目投资评估(第三版)[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2002:212-222.
48.杨绍品.抓住机遇发挥优势推进我国木薯产业更好更快地发展[J].中国热带农业.2006(5):4-6.
49.于平福,陆宇明,韦莉萍等.广西木薯生物质能产业的SWOT分析及策略选择[J].农村经济与科技,2009,20(9):71-73.
50.张成.代用燃料的生命周期3E评价及可持续设计[D].博士论文.上海交通大学,2003.
51.张菁.广西发展生物质能源土地潜力分析[J].市场论坛,2008(2):9-14.
52.张军,李小春等.国际能源战略与新能源技术进展[M] .北京:科学出版社,2008.
53.张振文,李开绵,黄洁,等.我国木薯产业发展形势与策略——广西武鸣县木薯产业发展启示[J].广西农业科学,2006,37(6):743-747.
54.钟甫宁.生物能源根本改变了世界粮价的决定因素[J].江苏农业经济,2008(5):24.
55.钟甫宁.世界粮食危机引发的思考[J].农业经济问题,2009(4):4-8.
56.中国可再生能源发展战略研究项目组.中国可再生能源发展战略研究丛书(生物质能卷)[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2008.
57.周生贤.中国森林资源报告[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2006:1-10.
58. Allem, A.C. The Origins and Taxonomy of Cassava [A]. Cassava: Biology, Production and Utilization[C].London,UK, 2002:1-16.
59. Allen Baker, Steven Zahniser. Ethanol Reshapes the Corn Market [J]. Amber Waves, 2007,5(special issue):66-71.
60. Cassava for food and energy security [OL]. http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2008/1000899/index.html.
61. CIAT, Cassava in Latin American and the Caribbean: Researches for Global Development[R], FAO corporate document repository, 1998.
62. Dai, D, Hu, Z.Y, Pu, G.Q. Energy Efficiency and Potentials of Cassava Fuel Ethanol in Guangxi Region of China [J]. Energy Conversion and Management,2006(47):1686-1699.
63. Dele Raheem; Chrysanthus Chukwuma, Foods from Cassava and Their Relevance to Nigeria and Other African Countries[J].Agriculture and Human Values, 2001(18):383-390.
64. FAO. Biofuels: prospects, risk and opportunities. The State of Food And Agriculture (SOFA),2008.
65. FAO, IFAD.A Review of Cassava in Latin America and the Caribbean with Country Case Studies on Brazil and Colombia. Proceedings of The Validation Forum on The Global Cassava Development Strategy, Rome, Vol.4, 2002.
66. F.O.Olasantan, H.C.Ezumah, E.O.Lucas Effects of intercropping with maize on the micro-environment, growth and yield of cassava[J].Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment,1996(57): 149-158.
67. Gibbons, A. new view of early Amazonia [J]. Science,1990(248):1488-1490.
68. Hillocks R J, Thresh J M, Bellotti A C. Cassava: Biology, Production and Utilization. Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Kent, UK,2002.
69. International Center for Tropical Agriculture (ICTA). A review of cassava in Asia with country case studies on Thailand and Vietnam[R]. Proceedings of the validation forum on the global cassava development strategy. Rome, 2000(4):26-28.
70. Kazuo Kawano. The Role of Improved Cassava Cultivars in Generating Income for Better Farm Management. Cassava’s Potential in the 21st Century: Present Situation and Future Research and Development Needs. Proceedings of the Sixth Regional Workshop held in Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Feb 21-25, 2000.
71. Klanarong Srirot. Cassava industry in Thailand: The status of technology and utilization. International Symposium on Cassava, Starch and Starch Derivatives,Guangxi (China), 11-15 Nov 1996, Bangkok (Thailand). 2000:169-180.
72. Neylor, R., Liska, A.J., Burke, M.B. The ripple effect: biofuels, food security, and the environment[J]. Environment,2007,49(9):31-43.
73. Olumide O.Tewe, Nebambi Lutaladion. Cassava for Livestock Feed in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Global Cassava Development Strategy, Rome, 2004.
74. Paul C. Westcott. U.S. Ethanol Expansion Driving Changes throughout the Agricultural Sector [J]. Amber Waves, 2007,5(1):10-15.
75. Peter Neuenschwander, Biological Control of the Cassava Mealybug in Africa: A Review [J]. Biological Control, 2001(21):214-229.
76. R.H. Howeler, S.L. Tan. Cassava’s Potential in the 21st Century: Present Situation and Future Research and Development Needs [C]. Proceedings of the Sixth Regional Workshop held in Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Feb 21-25,2000.
77. R.J.Hillocks, J.M.Thresh and A.C.Bellotti. Cassava: Biology, Production and Utilization [M]. Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Kent, UK,2002.
78. Rajagopal D, Sexton SE, Roland-Host D, et al. Challenge of biofuel: filling the tank without emptying the stomach [J]. Environmental Research Letters,2007(2):1-9.
79. Rajagopal,D.,Zilberman,D.Review of environmental, economic and policy aspects of biofuels[A].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No.4341[C],Washington, DC,WorldBank.
80. Richard K. Perrin. Ethanol and Food Price-A Preliminary Assessment [J]. Agricultural Economics, 2008(1):3-8.
81. Rogers, D.J. and Fleming, H.S. Monograph of Manihot esculenta Crantz [J]. Economic Botany, 1973, (27):1-114.
82. Scott Malcolm, Marcel Aillery.Growing Crops for Biofuels Has Spillover Effects [J]. Amber Waves, 2009,7(1):10-15.
83. Senauer,B.& Sur,M. .Ending global hunger in the 21st century: projections of the number of food insecure people[J].Review of Agricultural Economics,2001,23(1):68-81.
84. Shahla Shapouri, Stacey Rosen.Energy Price Implications for Food Security in Developing Countries[R]. Food Security Assessment, 2006 / GFA-18.Economic Research Service/USDA.
85. Tao Yu. Life Cycle Simulation-based Economic and Risk Assessment of Biomass-based Fuel Ethanol (BFE) Projects in Deferent Feedstock Planting Areas [J]. Energy,2008(33):375-384.
86. Truman P. Phillips, Daphne S. Taylor, Lateef Sanni. A Cassava Industrial Revolution in Nigeria[R]. The Global Cassava Development Strategy, Rome, 2004.
87. Vicent Lebot.Trapical Root and Tuber Crops: Cassava, Sweet Potato, Yams and Aroids[R]. Crop Production Science in Horticulture Series:17, 2008.
88. William Coyle. The Future of Biofuels: A Global Perspective [J]. Amber Waves, 2007,5(5):24-29.
89. Yu,S.& Tao, J.Life cycle simulation-based economic and risk assessment of biomass-based fuel ethanol (BFE) projects in defferent feedstock planting areas. Energy, 2008(33):375-384.