货币国际化条件研究
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摘要
货币国际化本质上是货币发行国在货币游戏规则中对世界财富的再分配。随着经济全面崛起,中国在世界货币游戏规则中谋求与经济和贸易地位相匹配的国际货币地位符合国家的长远利益,同时也是对东亚货币合作进展缓慢、国际货币体系改革短期无望的理性选择。从国际货币的三大职能来看,人民币在国际贸易和资本市场没有发挥任何一种职能,人民币国际化条件很不成熟。如果美元国际化程度为100,则欧元为66.8,日元为25.3,人民币为8.6。人民币还不是国际货币。
我们认为或许人民币国际化研究的基本问题是对于目前人民币国际化现实起点的认识。货币国际化进程背后的推动力量究竟是什么?一国货币成为国际货币需要具备哪些特质?目前人民币国际化进程的现实起点又是什么?对这类问题的深入分析和政府的推进思路将直接影响到人民币在未来几十年内的国际化进程。文章通过理论和实证分析回答了两个问题：决定国际货币的关键因素是什么?目前人民币国际化进程的现实起点又是什么?
对第一个问题的回答,我们首先运用历史纵向比较方法,对美元、欧元和日元国际化历程分别进行经济和制度因素分析得出对人民币国际化进程的启示。其次,我们从国际货币三大职能--外汇储备职能、计价货币职能、交换媒介职能出发,依次分析主要国际货币分布。选用1965-2008年间世界主要国际货币—美元、日元、欧元(马克)的混合面板数据,将主要国际货币在三大职能的分布比例作为因变量,采用基本的混合pool OLS回归、Arellano-Bond DGMM和Blundell-Bond动态面板SGMM估计方法分析货币国际化的影响因素。
通过实证分析有如下发现：强大的经济输出强大的货币,一国经济规模是影响货币国际化的最显著因素。从动态的角度看,国际货币的惯性对主要国际货币分布有显著的解释力。金融市场是影响货币国际化的显著因素。本质上汇率和通货膨胀率的波动仅仅是币值稳定的表现而不是币值稳定的来源,包括经济规模和军事力量在内的长期结构性因素才是币值稳定的真正来源。基本因素的缺陷在于没有反映国际货币的未来信息和期望交易成本,体现国际货币未来信息的因素是决定一国货币国际化的长期和结构性因素。强化因素包含了国际货币未来表现的更多信息,有助于解释国际货币的这一长期和结构性趋势。
在回答第二个问题时,由于人民币在样本区间1965-2008年间几乎没有发挥国际货币职能,我们选择具有较高拟合度回归方程,结合未来经济情形的假设,对四大货币(美元、欧元、日元和人民币)在1965-2020年间在三大职能的分布分别进行拟合与预测。指出在可预见的未来,人民币尚无法挑战美元和欧元的国际货币地位,但达到与日元相当的国际化程度可能性很大。进一步地,在实证分析基础上,我们从量化的角度科学地分析人民币国际化的现实起点。
作为世界第二经济和贸易大国,强大的经济实力是人民币走向国际化的坚实基础；近十年来,人民币保持了对内币值稳定(较低的通货膨胀)和对外币值稳定(较小的汇率波动),形成人民币国际化的有利条件；中国军事力量的强大和外交影响力的上升形成人民币国际化的有利强化因素；强大的货币发行规模保证了未来人民币在海外的广泛流通；人民币可以通过争取成为区域内关键货币,借助区域的力量实现人民币在区域内影响力最大化。目前人民币国际化主要受制于国内不完善的金融市场。如果说1997年东南亚金融危机期间,国内对金融市场开放还持有保留态度,那么随着中国渐进式改革进入实质阶段,国内金融市场的开放已经成为中国经济转型的重要支撑点,也成为人民币国际化进程寻求突破的关键点。人民币国际化进程关键取决于金融市场的开放、完善程度、与宏观经济和金融体系稳定相协调,由此,我们提出采取“完善金融市场与货币国际化并重”的渐进式货币国际化战略。
Currency internalization is redistribution of the world wealth in the currency rules among countries. As an emerging economy, it is of China's long-term interest for she promotes its currency into international money in the world currency game correspondingly under the background of East-Asia's monetary slow cooperation and hopeless international monetary system. Conditions of RMB internalization are highly premature and RMB has not performe international currency functions. RMB is not an international currency. According to the numerical measurement, if the U.S dollar is 100, and the Euro is 66.8, Yen is 25.3 while RMB is 8.6.
We view that a basic question for the RMB internationalization is starting point of RMB internalization. what are the pushing factors behind the currency internalization? And which characteristics the international currencies have? What the real starting point for RMB internalization is? The deep analysis on these questions will contribute to the RMB internalization progress.The paper answers two queations:what are the crucial factors for currency internalization? And what the real starting point for RMB internalization is?
Firsly we analyze the history fo the three main international currencies—dollar, euro(mark) and yen and conclude many lessons for RMB internalization. Secondly, we makes an analysis on determinants of currency internationalization using panel data of dollar, yen, mark (euro) during the period of 1965-2008 from international currency's three functions—foreign reserve, pricing currency and exchange medium, including the regression methods of POLS and dynamic DGMM and SGMM. Strong economy support strong currency and the most significant factor is the economy. Form the dynamic insight, we find that internia is the significant factor. Financial market is the significatn factors as well. Essentially, the exchange rate and inflation reflect the stability of currency, not the source. Enforcement determinants are significant to explain the long-term trend for including more future information of international currency.
Secondly, based on the regression equation, the paper predicts the percentage of RMB and other three international currencies in world international currency during the period of 1965-2020 as well as the Yuan's percentage under different capital controls. Finally, we points that Yuan is possible to challenge the Yen in the future although the dollar and euro's dominance in the three functions. Furthermore, we analyze the actual starting point of RMB internalization.As the second economy in the world, RMB has solid economic basis for internalization. RMB have has low inflation and stable exchange rate for more than ten years. China's strong military power and diplomatic influence contribute to RMB internalization. RMB also can be the key currency in East-Asia to maximize its influence. The crucial limitation on RMB internalization is the under-developed financial market. China's government was unwilling to open its dometic financial market in the East Asia financial crisis. Experiecing development in more than ten years, the openness of financial market has become the key for the economic reform and RMB internalization. RMB internal ization should be in accord with the openness of financial market and macroeconomic stability. then we suggest the gradual currency internaliztion strategy of combining the financial market development with the RMB internalization.
我们认为或许人民币国际化研究的基本问题是对于目前人民币国际化现实起点的认识。货币国际化进程背后的推动力量究竟是什么?一国货币成为国际货币需要具备哪些特质?目前人民币国际化进程的现实起点又是什么?对这类问题的深入分析和政府的推进思路将直接影响到人民币在未来几十年内的国际化进程。文章通过理论和实证分析回答了两个问题：决定国际货币的关键因素是什么?目前人民币国际化进程的现实起点又是什么?
对第一个问题的回答,我们首先运用历史纵向比较方法,对美元、欧元和日元国际化历程分别进行经济和制度因素分析得出对人民币国际化进程的启示。其次,我们从国际货币三大职能--外汇储备职能、计价货币职能、交换媒介职能出发,依次分析主要国际货币分布。选用1965-2008年间世界主要国际货币—美元、日元、欧元(马克)的混合面板数据,将主要国际货币在三大职能的分布比例作为因变量,采用基本的混合pool OLS回归、Arellano-Bond DGMM和Blundell-Bond动态面板SGMM估计方法分析货币国际化的影响因素。
通过实证分析有如下发现：强大的经济输出强大的货币,一国经济规模是影响货币国际化的最显著因素。从动态的角度看,国际货币的惯性对主要国际货币分布有显著的解释力。金融市场是影响货币国际化的显著因素。本质上汇率和通货膨胀率的波动仅仅是币值稳定的表现而不是币值稳定的来源,包括经济规模和军事力量在内的长期结构性因素才是币值稳定的真正来源。基本因素的缺陷在于没有反映国际货币的未来信息和期望交易成本,体现国际货币未来信息的因素是决定一国货币国际化的长期和结构性因素。强化因素包含了国际货币未来表现的更多信息,有助于解释国际货币的这一长期和结构性趋势。
在回答第二个问题时,由于人民币在样本区间1965-2008年间几乎没有发挥国际货币职能,我们选择具有较高拟合度回归方程,结合未来经济情形的假设,对四大货币(美元、欧元、日元和人民币)在1965-2020年间在三大职能的分布分别进行拟合与预测。指出在可预见的未来,人民币尚无法挑战美元和欧元的国际货币地位,但达到与日元相当的国际化程度可能性很大。进一步地,在实证分析基础上,我们从量化的角度科学地分析人民币国际化的现实起点。
作为世界第二经济和贸易大国,强大的经济实力是人民币走向国际化的坚实基础；近十年来,人民币保持了对内币值稳定(较低的通货膨胀)和对外币值稳定(较小的汇率波动),形成人民币国际化的有利条件；中国军事力量的强大和外交影响力的上升形成人民币国际化的有利强化因素；强大的货币发行规模保证了未来人民币在海外的广泛流通；人民币可以通过争取成为区域内关键货币,借助区域的力量实现人民币在区域内影响力最大化。目前人民币国际化主要受制于国内不完善的金融市场。如果说1997年东南亚金融危机期间,国内对金融市场开放还持有保留态度,那么随着中国渐进式改革进入实质阶段,国内金融市场的开放已经成为中国经济转型的重要支撑点,也成为人民币国际化进程寻求突破的关键点。人民币国际化进程关键取决于金融市场的开放、完善程度、与宏观经济和金融体系稳定相协调,由此,我们提出采取“完善金融市场与货币国际化并重”的渐进式货币国际化战略。
Currency internalization is redistribution of the world wealth in the currency rules among countries. As an emerging economy, it is of China's long-term interest for she promotes its currency into international money in the world currency game correspondingly under the background of East-Asia's monetary slow cooperation and hopeless international monetary system. Conditions of RMB internalization are highly premature and RMB has not performe international currency functions. RMB is not an international currency. According to the numerical measurement, if the U.S dollar is 100, and the Euro is 66.8, Yen is 25.3 while RMB is 8.6.
We view that a basic question for the RMB internationalization is starting point of RMB internalization. what are the pushing factors behind the currency internalization? And which characteristics the international currencies have? What the real starting point for RMB internalization is? The deep analysis on these questions will contribute to the RMB internalization progress.The paper answers two queations:what are the crucial factors for currency internalization? And what the real starting point for RMB internalization is?
Firsly we analyze the history fo the three main international currencies—dollar, euro(mark) and yen and conclude many lessons for RMB internalization. Secondly, we makes an analysis on determinants of currency internationalization using panel data of dollar, yen, mark (euro) during the period of 1965-2008 from international currency's three functions—foreign reserve, pricing currency and exchange medium, including the regression methods of POLS and dynamic DGMM and SGMM. Strong economy support strong currency and the most significant factor is the economy. Form the dynamic insight, we find that internia is the significant factor. Financial market is the significatn factors as well. Essentially, the exchange rate and inflation reflect the stability of currency, not the source. Enforcement determinants are significant to explain the long-term trend for including more future information of international currency.
Secondly, based on the regression equation, the paper predicts the percentage of RMB and other three international currencies in world international currency during the period of 1965-2020 as well as the Yuan's percentage under different capital controls. Finally, we points that Yuan is possible to challenge the Yen in the future although the dollar and euro's dominance in the three functions. Furthermore, we analyze the actual starting point of RMB internalization.As the second economy in the world, RMB has solid economic basis for internalization. RMB have has low inflation and stable exchange rate for more than ten years. China's strong military power and diplomatic influence contribute to RMB internalization. RMB also can be the key currency in East-Asia to maximize its influence. The crucial limitation on RMB internalization is the under-developed financial market. China's government was unwilling to open its dometic financial market in the East Asia financial crisis. Experiecing development in more than ten years, the openness of financial market has become the key for the economic reform and RMB internalization. RMB internal ization should be in accord with the openness of financial market and macroeconomic stability. then we suggest the gradual currency internaliztion strategy of combining the financial market development with the RMB internalization.
引文
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3 2011年01月13日17：37,中国人民银行网站
4 熊猫债券指国外金融机构在中国境内发行的以人民币为面值的债券,亚洲人民币债券是国内金融机构在中国境外发行的以人民币为面值的债券。两者都属于国际债券。
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3 2011年01月13日17：37,中国人民银行网站
4 熊猫债券指国外金融机构在中国境内发行的以人民币为面值的债券,亚洲人民币债券是国内金融机构在中国境外发行的以人民币为面值的债券。两者都属于国际债券。
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9 完全的国际货币也称为关键货币、主导货币。
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