中国微型汽车市场及其分销渠道研究
摘要
经过几十年的发展,中国汽车市场已成为世界几大汽车市场之一。中国微型汽车市场是中国汽车市场的一个子市场,它不但在中国汽车市场中具有重要地位,而且其与能源危机、节能减排、城镇化、低碳经济等主题相关,因此,对中国微型汽车市场及其分销渠道的研究具有重要的现实意义。
针对微型汽车市场竞争强度增加,从考察微型汽车所面临的行业环境入手,使用CRn指数法计算了微型汽车行业的产业集中度,考察了微型汽车产业集中程度的动态变化,结论认为微型汽车市场是寡占程度较高的寡头市场,但同时存在相当程度的竞争。行业的规模经济、投入要素之间的关系和要素需求的价格弹性是观察一个行业的另一个重要视角,基于迭代似无关回归(ISUR)方法建立了生产工人、非生产工人和资本为投入要素的微型汽车所在行业的超越对数(Translog)生产函数,估计了微型汽车所在行业规模报酬的阶数,计算了投入要素之间的Allen替代弹性并通过替代弹性计算了要素需求的价格弹性,在此基础上,对微型汽车所在行业规模经济的状况、投入要素之间的替代或互补关系和要素价格变化对要素需求的影响进行了分析,结论认为微型汽车所在行业接近规模报酬不变阶段,资本与生产工人和非生产工人之间是替代关系,生产工人、非生产工人和资本三个要素需求缺乏弹性。
市场的发展不仅面临行业环境的约束,还受到市场需求的影响。针对微型汽车市场需求波动较大,基于汽车存量调整汽车需求的思想建立了微型汽车市场需求存量调整模型,借助该模型研究了微型汽车市场存量对微型汽车需求的影响,结果发现微型汽车市场存量没有达到均衡的或理想的状态,微型汽车市场存量水平对微型汽车需求没有显著的调节作用,微型汽车需求主要应该由收入和价格进行解释,进一步计算了微型汽车需求的收入弹性和价格弹性;为了研究农村城镇化进程对微型汽车市场需求的影响,使用因子分析方法把几个城镇化水平变量转化为城镇化水平因子,建立了农村城镇化水平因子对微型汽车市场需求量的回归模型,基于该模型的结论是农村城镇化水平因子每增加1个百分点,微型货车需求量将增加0.432个百分点,而微型客车需求量将增加1.071个百分点;基于时间序列ARIMA模型建立了微型汽车市场需求预测模型,通过该模型对微型汽车市场需求进行了预测。
微型汽车存量不足以调节微型汽车市场需求,需求的较大波动成为常态,农村城镇化进程的加快增加了微型汽车的需求,微型汽车的目标市场已经并正在发生较大变化,对微型汽车市场消费者的研究显得尤为迫切。基于2000多份调查问卷对微型汽车消费者的特征进行了分析,在文献研究的基础上提出了消费者特征对消费者信息搜寻行为和购买决策行为影响的假设,为了对假设进行检验,基于最优尺度回归方法建立了消费者的特征变量对消费者信息搜寻范围和购买决策的回归模型,基于Logistic回归模型建立了消费者特征变量对消费者对因特网使用的回归模型,检验结果显示部分假设获得了证实,部分假设没有被支持,消费者的文化程度、年龄、职业和收入水平显著地影响了消费者的信息搜寻范围,消费者的文化程度、职业和年龄显著地影响了在汽车信息搜寻中对因特网的使用,消费者的收入、职业和年龄对消费者的购买决策有显著影响,消费者的家庭人口和性别对消费者购买决策没有显著影响。
在对消费者特征和行为研究的基础上,针对微型汽车消费者收入较低的特征和收入是影响其购买决策的最重要因素,考虑到目前主流的4S专卖店渠道不一定适合对微型汽车的分销,论文对微型汽车市场分销渠道进行了研究。在分析了中国和欧美等国汽车市场分销渠道演进的基础上,基于渠道关系视角从成本和经销商数量对渠道的影响方面构建了一级分销渠道利润优化模型,通过该模型分析了成本和经销商数量对渠道利润的影响,得到了成本和经销商数量对渠道利润影响的8个命题,进一步通过算例验证了模型的正确性和实用价值,在此基础上并结合论文对消费者特征和行为方面的研究结论从分销渠道的层级、宽度和渠道关系角度对微型汽车分销渠道进行了选择,提出了适合微型汽车的分销渠道模式。
Developing for several decades, Chinese automobile market has already become one of those major markets in the world. Chinese mini-auto market is one sub-market of Chinese automobile market; it is not only of great significance to Chinese automobile market, but also closely related to resources crisis, energy-saving, urbanization and low-carbon economy, so it is practically important to study Chinese mini-auto market.
Competition in mini-auto market has become more and more severe. From the perspective of mini-auto industrial environment, this dissertation adopts CRn Index to calculate industrial concentration ratio of mini-auto industry and analyzes dynamic changes of this industrial concentration ratio. And then it concludes that mini-auto market is oligopoly market with a high oligopoly degree, while there exists competition in this market. Another important angle of view that observes a industry are scale economy, relations among input factors and price elasticities of input factors. Based on iterated seemingly unrelation regression (ISUR), this dissertation constructs Chinese mini-automobile industry’s Translog production function with production worker, non-production worker and capital as input factors; it estimates Chinese mini-automobile industry’s returns to scale order; it uses this estimation to calculate the substitution elasticity among those input factors and then it calculates price elasticity required by input factors through substitution elasticity;on the basis of those calculations, this dissertation analyzes the situation of Chinese mini-automobile industry’s scale economy, analyzes those substitution or complementary relations among input factors, and studies how factors’price changes affect factors on demand. It concludes that mini-auto industry has already been in the stage of constant return to scale; production worker and non-production worker are complementary; production worker, non-production worker and capital lack elasticity.
Market development is not only constrained by industrial structure, but also affected by market demand. Considering that the demand of mini-auto market is much fluctuated, based on the thought that automobile stock adjusts market demand, this dissertation constructs Chinese mini-automobile’s market demand model so as to study whether Chinese mini-automobile’s market stock obviously affects it’s the demand for mini-automobiles. It finds out that Chinese mini-automobile’s market stock is not in a balanced and ideal position, and mini-automobile market stock doesn’t obviously affect demands for mini-automobiles. And demands for mini-automobiles are mainly decided by income and price, and then it calculates price elasticity and income elasticity of Chinese mini-automobile’s market demand. In order to study how urbanization affects the market demand of mini-automobile, this dissertation adopts factor analysis model to transfer urbanization rate variables into urbanization rate factors, and constructs a regression model that illustrates how urbanization rate factors affect the market demand for mini-automobile, which concludes that with urbanization rate factors increasing by 1%, demand for mini-truck increases by 0.432%, and that of mini-bus increases by 1.071%. And based on time serial ARIMA model, this dissertation constructs prediction model about Chinese mini-automobile’s market demand and predicts its demands through this model.
Only mini-automobile stock is not enough to adjust demands for mini-automobiles, for demands change frequently. Urbanization increases demands for mini-automobiles, and its target market has been changing. So it is necessary to study customers of mini-automobile market. Based on more than 2000 surveys, this dissertation analyzes Chinese mini-automobile customers’characteristics, and it puts forward some hypotheses that customers’characteristics affect their information searching behaviors and purchase decision too. In order to prove these hypotheses, it adopts optimal scale regression model to construct the regression model that illustrates how customer’s characteristics variables affect customer’s information search range and their purchase decision. On the basis of logistic regression model, this dissertation constructs a regression model that illustrates how customer’s characteristics affect their use on Internet. Test result from this regression models shows that part of these hypotheses are proved to be true, while part of that are not. Customers’information search range varies form their education background, age, occupation and incomes. Customers’education background, occupation and age significantly affect their use on Internet when searching automobile information. Customers’income, occupation, and age significantly influence their purchase decision, while their family population and gender don’t.
Based on studies about customers’characteristics and behaviors, it finds out mini-automobile customers’low incomes affects their purchase decision largely. Considering 4S stores are not suitable for distribution, this dissertation studies distribution channels of mini-automobile market. In the basis of analysising the changes of distribution channels of China and the Occident automobile market, it constructs one-level distribution channel profit optimization models which depict the affection of cost and retailers numbers on chanels from prospective of channel relationship, through which it studies how costs and numbers of retailers affect channel profit, and it gets 8 propositions. Then it tests this model’s validity and practical values by numerical examples. At last, based on the previous results about customers’characteristics and behaviours, it studies Chinese mini-automobile’s distribution channel modes from prospective of distribution channel’s level, width, and channel relationship, then it put forwards the channel model that is suitable for mini-automobile distribution.
针对微型汽车市场竞争强度增加,从考察微型汽车所面临的行业环境入手,使用CRn指数法计算了微型汽车行业的产业集中度,考察了微型汽车产业集中程度的动态变化,结论认为微型汽车市场是寡占程度较高的寡头市场,但同时存在相当程度的竞争。行业的规模经济、投入要素之间的关系和要素需求的价格弹性是观察一个行业的另一个重要视角,基于迭代似无关回归(ISUR)方法建立了生产工人、非生产工人和资本为投入要素的微型汽车所在行业的超越对数(Translog)生产函数,估计了微型汽车所在行业规模报酬的阶数,计算了投入要素之间的Allen替代弹性并通过替代弹性计算了要素需求的价格弹性,在此基础上,对微型汽车所在行业规模经济的状况、投入要素之间的替代或互补关系和要素价格变化对要素需求的影响进行了分析,结论认为微型汽车所在行业接近规模报酬不变阶段,资本与生产工人和非生产工人之间是替代关系,生产工人、非生产工人和资本三个要素需求缺乏弹性。
市场的发展不仅面临行业环境的约束,还受到市场需求的影响。针对微型汽车市场需求波动较大,基于汽车存量调整汽车需求的思想建立了微型汽车市场需求存量调整模型,借助该模型研究了微型汽车市场存量对微型汽车需求的影响,结果发现微型汽车市场存量没有达到均衡的或理想的状态,微型汽车市场存量水平对微型汽车需求没有显著的调节作用,微型汽车需求主要应该由收入和价格进行解释,进一步计算了微型汽车需求的收入弹性和价格弹性;为了研究农村城镇化进程对微型汽车市场需求的影响,使用因子分析方法把几个城镇化水平变量转化为城镇化水平因子,建立了农村城镇化水平因子对微型汽车市场需求量的回归模型,基于该模型的结论是农村城镇化水平因子每增加1个百分点,微型货车需求量将增加0.432个百分点,而微型客车需求量将增加1.071个百分点;基于时间序列ARIMA模型建立了微型汽车市场需求预测模型,通过该模型对微型汽车市场需求进行了预测。
微型汽车存量不足以调节微型汽车市场需求,需求的较大波动成为常态,农村城镇化进程的加快增加了微型汽车的需求,微型汽车的目标市场已经并正在发生较大变化,对微型汽车市场消费者的研究显得尤为迫切。基于2000多份调查问卷对微型汽车消费者的特征进行了分析,在文献研究的基础上提出了消费者特征对消费者信息搜寻行为和购买决策行为影响的假设,为了对假设进行检验,基于最优尺度回归方法建立了消费者的特征变量对消费者信息搜寻范围和购买决策的回归模型,基于Logistic回归模型建立了消费者特征变量对消费者对因特网使用的回归模型,检验结果显示部分假设获得了证实,部分假设没有被支持,消费者的文化程度、年龄、职业和收入水平显著地影响了消费者的信息搜寻范围,消费者的文化程度、职业和年龄显著地影响了在汽车信息搜寻中对因特网的使用,消费者的收入、职业和年龄对消费者的购买决策有显著影响,消费者的家庭人口和性别对消费者购买决策没有显著影响。
在对消费者特征和行为研究的基础上,针对微型汽车消费者收入较低的特征和收入是影响其购买决策的最重要因素,考虑到目前主流的4S专卖店渠道不一定适合对微型汽车的分销,论文对微型汽车市场分销渠道进行了研究。在分析了中国和欧美等国汽车市场分销渠道演进的基础上,基于渠道关系视角从成本和经销商数量对渠道的影响方面构建了一级分销渠道利润优化模型,通过该模型分析了成本和经销商数量对渠道利润的影响,得到了成本和经销商数量对渠道利润影响的8个命题,进一步通过算例验证了模型的正确性和实用价值,在此基础上并结合论文对消费者特征和行为方面的研究结论从分销渠道的层级、宽度和渠道关系角度对微型汽车分销渠道进行了选择,提出了适合微型汽车的分销渠道模式。
Developing for several decades, Chinese automobile market has already become one of those major markets in the world. Chinese mini-auto market is one sub-market of Chinese automobile market; it is not only of great significance to Chinese automobile market, but also closely related to resources crisis, energy-saving, urbanization and low-carbon economy, so it is practically important to study Chinese mini-auto market.
Competition in mini-auto market has become more and more severe. From the perspective of mini-auto industrial environment, this dissertation adopts CRn Index to calculate industrial concentration ratio of mini-auto industry and analyzes dynamic changes of this industrial concentration ratio. And then it concludes that mini-auto market is oligopoly market with a high oligopoly degree, while there exists competition in this market. Another important angle of view that observes a industry are scale economy, relations among input factors and price elasticities of input factors. Based on iterated seemingly unrelation regression (ISUR), this dissertation constructs Chinese mini-automobile industry’s Translog production function with production worker, non-production worker and capital as input factors; it estimates Chinese mini-automobile industry’s returns to scale order; it uses this estimation to calculate the substitution elasticity among those input factors and then it calculates price elasticity required by input factors through substitution elasticity;on the basis of those calculations, this dissertation analyzes the situation of Chinese mini-automobile industry’s scale economy, analyzes those substitution or complementary relations among input factors, and studies how factors’price changes affect factors on demand. It concludes that mini-auto industry has already been in the stage of constant return to scale; production worker and non-production worker are complementary; production worker, non-production worker and capital lack elasticity.
Market development is not only constrained by industrial structure, but also affected by market demand. Considering that the demand of mini-auto market is much fluctuated, based on the thought that automobile stock adjusts market demand, this dissertation constructs Chinese mini-automobile’s market demand model so as to study whether Chinese mini-automobile’s market stock obviously affects it’s the demand for mini-automobiles. It finds out that Chinese mini-automobile’s market stock is not in a balanced and ideal position, and mini-automobile market stock doesn’t obviously affect demands for mini-automobiles. And demands for mini-automobiles are mainly decided by income and price, and then it calculates price elasticity and income elasticity of Chinese mini-automobile’s market demand. In order to study how urbanization affects the market demand of mini-automobile, this dissertation adopts factor analysis model to transfer urbanization rate variables into urbanization rate factors, and constructs a regression model that illustrates how urbanization rate factors affect the market demand for mini-automobile, which concludes that with urbanization rate factors increasing by 1%, demand for mini-truck increases by 0.432%, and that of mini-bus increases by 1.071%. And based on time serial ARIMA model, this dissertation constructs prediction model about Chinese mini-automobile’s market demand and predicts its demands through this model.
Only mini-automobile stock is not enough to adjust demands for mini-automobiles, for demands change frequently. Urbanization increases demands for mini-automobiles, and its target market has been changing. So it is necessary to study customers of mini-automobile market. Based on more than 2000 surveys, this dissertation analyzes Chinese mini-automobile customers’characteristics, and it puts forward some hypotheses that customers’characteristics affect their information searching behaviors and purchase decision too. In order to prove these hypotheses, it adopts optimal scale regression model to construct the regression model that illustrates how customer’s characteristics variables affect customer’s information search range and their purchase decision. On the basis of logistic regression model, this dissertation constructs a regression model that illustrates how customer’s characteristics affect their use on Internet. Test result from this regression models shows that part of these hypotheses are proved to be true, while part of that are not. Customers’information search range varies form their education background, age, occupation and incomes. Customers’education background, occupation and age significantly affect their use on Internet when searching automobile information. Customers’income, occupation, and age significantly influence their purchase decision, while their family population and gender don’t.
Based on studies about customers’characteristics and behaviors, it finds out mini-automobile customers’low incomes affects their purchase decision largely. Considering 4S stores are not suitable for distribution, this dissertation studies distribution channels of mini-automobile market. In the basis of analysising the changes of distribution channels of China and the Occident automobile market, it constructs one-level distribution channel profit optimization models which depict the affection of cost and retailers numbers on chanels from prospective of channel relationship, through which it studies how costs and numbers of retailers affect channel profit, and it gets 8 propositions. Then it tests this model’s validity and practical values by numerical examples. At last, based on the previous results about customers’characteristics and behaviours, it studies Chinese mini-automobile’s distribution channel modes from prospective of distribution channel’s level, width, and channel relationship, then it put forwards the channel model that is suitable for mini-automobile distribution.
引文
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