女岛码头作业区投资项目风险管理研究
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摘要
自我国加入WTO之后,随着中国经济的飞速发展,中国现在已经步入了“世界工厂”时代,成为世界上重要的出口国之一。由此,中国也成为了世界上港口吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量最多、增长速度最快的国家。在良好的大环境的影响下,青岛港用5年时间走过了过去109年的亿吨大港历程,到2006年底,青岛港全年吞吐量达到了2.2亿吨,集装箱吞吐量完成770.2万TEU。始建于1892年的青岛港,在发展成国家特大型港口的同时,也是资源节约型、环境友好型、自主创新型、质量效益型的港口(1)。
在海上贸易运输普及的今天,中国的港口,特别是大型集装箱港口有着重要的角色,担负着促进中国经济发展的历史使命。青岛港位于黄海之滨,胶州湾畔,港深水阔,不淤不冻,是世界知名的天然良港。2007年,青岛港与中国远洋集团正式签订协议,确立青岛港成为中国第一国际集装箱中转港,从此改写了我国国际集装箱中转主要在国外大港作业的历史(2)。随着市场需求的日益增长以及我国港口体制改革的进一步深化,港口建设项目投资越来越受到投资者的青睐。根据青岛市的港口建设规划,青岛港口项目建设还将进一步继续、深化。在港口建设项目投资过程中,采用系统化的方法对项目投资风险进行识别、分析评估、有效管理防范、做好对风险的转移,就具有了很强的现实意义。
本文以青岛鳌山湾女岛作业区为例,开展了项目投资风险管理的初步研究。期待通过实例个案丰富投资项目风险管理研究实例库,总结投资项目风险管理理论实际应用的经验,建立投资项目风险管理实际应用模式。同时,弥补青岛鳌山湾女岛作业区开发方案研究没有开展投资项目风险管理研究的不足,为该项目的投资决策提供新的决策参考依据。结合港口建设项目投资的特点,完成的港口建设项目投资风险评估与管理更可为今后类似项目的可行性研究或开发方案研究提供借鉴。
本文共包括七章:
第一章绪论,主要介绍研究背景,全面总结项目风险管理的国内外研究现状,研究的意义、目的、内容、方法和技术路线。
第二章介绍青岛港及鳌山湾港口女岛作业区项目概况。主要包括青岛港现状、鳌山湾港口女岛作业区项目区位、鳌山湾港口女岛作业区项目规划等。
第三章应用系统分析方法识别了该投资项目的风险因素。按风险因素的属性和损失大小、投资者可否控制划分为不可控制、风险大的外部环境因素:政治环境、经济政策、吞吐量;部分可控制、风险影响相对小的项目内部因素:恶劣天气长期施工、风暴潮、地震、天然淤积、集疏运交通、消防、给排水与水资源、合同工期、合同纠纷、工程款支付、技术难度、质量责任、投入产出决策共2大类16种项目投资风险因素。
第四章应用定性分析方法和专家调查法定量评估对项目的风险因素分别进行了研究。评估结果认为项目的风险度为0.5系中度风险项目,可以进行投资。主要风险因素依次为吞吐量、投入产出决策、消防等。
第五章针对主要风险因素,提出了具体风险管理措施。如多功能服务规避吞吐量风险;建立员工终生教育制度,质量、安全、环境三位一体认证体系,数字企业和航道疏通、专用交通公路维护等风险管理;利用保险、融资共同投资、选好建设施工方,按国际惯例搞好招投标、签订好合同等转移风险的建议。
第六章结论在总结研究成果和指出研究中的不足的同时,提出了全息的项目投资风险管理研究模式。该模式为:项目资料分析-风险因素识别-风险因素定性分析-风险因素定量评估-主要风险因素规避、管理和转移的具体措施。
第七章结束语和致谢。
Since China's accession to the WTO,With the rapid development of Chinese economy, China has now entered the "world factory" era, become one of the important exporter in the world.Thus, China has become the world port throughput and container throughput and the fastest growing countries.In the good environment influence,Qingdao port with 5 years passed over the course of the 109th tons port,till the end of 2006, the annual throughput reach the Qingdao portcontainer throughput, complete 2.2 million tons 770.2 million TEU.Founded in 1892 in Qingdao, the development of national large port, is also a resource-conserving, environment-friendly,independent innovation, quality frist port.
In the popularization of maritime trade transportation, China today, especially large port container port has an important role to promote economic development in China's historical mission.Qingdao is located in jiaozhou bay coast,is a world famous natural harbor.In 2007, with China ocean group of Qingdao, establish formal agreement Qingdao become China's first international container ZhongZhuanGang, China international container terminal and rewriting in dagang homework history .With the increasing market demand and ports in China, further deepen the reform of port construction investment projects by investors. According to the Qingdao port construction planning, Qingdao port projects will further, to deepen.In the port construction project investment process, using the method of systematic project investment risk identification and evaluation, the effective management of risk prevention, completes the transfer, have a strong sense of reality. Based on the nudao work zone to Qingdao area as an example, develop a project of investment and risk management. Looking through an example case rich investment project risk management, investment research instances library application project risk management theory, the experience of investment project risk management application mode.At the same time, nudao areas for development scheme not conduct investment research project risk management, project investment decision-making for the new decision reference. Combined with the characteristics of port construction investment projects, the port construction projects completed investment risk assessment and management of similar projects for future development plan feasibility study or research.
This includes chapter 7:
The first chapter of introduction, mainly introduce the research background, comprehensive summary of domestic and international research project risk management, research significance, objective, content, method and technology route.
The second chapter introduces relate to Qingdao port and female island valley area project profile. Mainly includes status, relate to Qingdao port female island valley area project location, Columbus port female island valley area project planning, etc.
The third chapter application system analysis method to identify the risk factors of investment projects.According to the risk factors of attributes and the loss of size, investors could not control for the greater risk control, external environment factors: the political environment, economic policy, throughput, Part can control, risk affect relatively small projects for internal factors: inclement weather, storm, earthquake, construction, transportation, natural deposition in accordance with water, fire, water supply and drainage project contract and contract dispute, due to pay, technical difficulties, the quality responsibility, input and output of two kinds of decision-making and project investment risk factors.
The fourth chapter used qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation experts investigation of project risk factors were studied. That project risk assessment results of 0.5 degrees, can undertake project risk investment. Major risk factors for throughput, input and output decision-making, fire control, etc.
The fifth chapter for major risk factors, and puts forward concrete measures of risk management. If multi-function service evade risk; the throughput Establish lifelong education system, employee quality, safety and environmental authentication system, digital three-dimensional enterprise and waterway dredging, special traffic highway maintenance risk management, etc. Using the joint investment, finance, insurance, building construction chosen according to international convention signed in bidding, the transfer of risk as the suggestion.
The sixth chapter summarizes research results and conclusions in the lack of that research project, and puts forward the holographic investment risk management model. This pattern is: project material analysis - risk factors identification - risk factors for qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation risk factors - - main risk factors to evade, management and transfer of the concrete measures.
The seventh chapter closing and thanks.
在海上贸易运输普及的今天,中国的港口,特别是大型集装箱港口有着重要的角色,担负着促进中国经济发展的历史使命。青岛港位于黄海之滨,胶州湾畔,港深水阔,不淤不冻,是世界知名的天然良港。2007年,青岛港与中国远洋集团正式签订协议,确立青岛港成为中国第一国际集装箱中转港,从此改写了我国国际集装箱中转主要在国外大港作业的历史(2)。随着市场需求的日益增长以及我国港口体制改革的进一步深化,港口建设项目投资越来越受到投资者的青睐。根据青岛市的港口建设规划,青岛港口项目建设还将进一步继续、深化。在港口建设项目投资过程中,采用系统化的方法对项目投资风险进行识别、分析评估、有效管理防范、做好对风险的转移,就具有了很强的现实意义。
本文以青岛鳌山湾女岛作业区为例,开展了项目投资风险管理的初步研究。期待通过实例个案丰富投资项目风险管理研究实例库,总结投资项目风险管理理论实际应用的经验,建立投资项目风险管理实际应用模式。同时,弥补青岛鳌山湾女岛作业区开发方案研究没有开展投资项目风险管理研究的不足,为该项目的投资决策提供新的决策参考依据。结合港口建设项目投资的特点,完成的港口建设项目投资风险评估与管理更可为今后类似项目的可行性研究或开发方案研究提供借鉴。
本文共包括七章:
第一章绪论,主要介绍研究背景,全面总结项目风险管理的国内外研究现状,研究的意义、目的、内容、方法和技术路线。
第二章介绍青岛港及鳌山湾港口女岛作业区项目概况。主要包括青岛港现状、鳌山湾港口女岛作业区项目区位、鳌山湾港口女岛作业区项目规划等。
第三章应用系统分析方法识别了该投资项目的风险因素。按风险因素的属性和损失大小、投资者可否控制划分为不可控制、风险大的外部环境因素:政治环境、经济政策、吞吐量;部分可控制、风险影响相对小的项目内部因素:恶劣天气长期施工、风暴潮、地震、天然淤积、集疏运交通、消防、给排水与水资源、合同工期、合同纠纷、工程款支付、技术难度、质量责任、投入产出决策共2大类16种项目投资风险因素。
第四章应用定性分析方法和专家调查法定量评估对项目的风险因素分别进行了研究。评估结果认为项目的风险度为0.5系中度风险项目,可以进行投资。主要风险因素依次为吞吐量、投入产出决策、消防等。
第五章针对主要风险因素,提出了具体风险管理措施。如多功能服务规避吞吐量风险;建立员工终生教育制度,质量、安全、环境三位一体认证体系,数字企业和航道疏通、专用交通公路维护等风险管理;利用保险、融资共同投资、选好建设施工方,按国际惯例搞好招投标、签订好合同等转移风险的建议。
第六章结论在总结研究成果和指出研究中的不足的同时,提出了全息的项目投资风险管理研究模式。该模式为:项目资料分析-风险因素识别-风险因素定性分析-风险因素定量评估-主要风险因素规避、管理和转移的具体措施。
第七章结束语和致谢。
Since China's accession to the WTO,With the rapid development of Chinese economy, China has now entered the "world factory" era, become one of the important exporter in the world.Thus, China has become the world port throughput and container throughput and the fastest growing countries.In the good environment influence,Qingdao port with 5 years passed over the course of the 109th tons port,till the end of 2006, the annual throughput reach the Qingdao portcontainer throughput, complete 2.2 million tons 770.2 million TEU.Founded in 1892 in Qingdao, the development of national large port, is also a resource-conserving, environment-friendly,independent innovation, quality frist port.
In the popularization of maritime trade transportation, China today, especially large port container port has an important role to promote economic development in China's historical mission.Qingdao is located in jiaozhou bay coast,is a world famous natural harbor.In 2007, with China ocean group of Qingdao, establish formal agreement Qingdao become China's first international container ZhongZhuanGang, China international container terminal and rewriting in dagang homework history .With the increasing market demand and ports in China, further deepen the reform of port construction investment projects by investors. According to the Qingdao port construction planning, Qingdao port projects will further, to deepen.In the port construction project investment process, using the method of systematic project investment risk identification and evaluation, the effective management of risk prevention, completes the transfer, have a strong sense of reality. Based on the nudao work zone to Qingdao area as an example, develop a project of investment and risk management. Looking through an example case rich investment project risk management, investment research instances library application project risk management theory, the experience of investment project risk management application mode.At the same time, nudao areas for development scheme not conduct investment research project risk management, project investment decision-making for the new decision reference. Combined with the characteristics of port construction investment projects, the port construction projects completed investment risk assessment and management of similar projects for future development plan feasibility study or research.
This includes chapter 7:
The first chapter of introduction, mainly introduce the research background, comprehensive summary of domestic and international research project risk management, research significance, objective, content, method and technology route.
The second chapter introduces relate to Qingdao port and female island valley area project profile. Mainly includes status, relate to Qingdao port female island valley area project location, Columbus port female island valley area project planning, etc.
The third chapter application system analysis method to identify the risk factors of investment projects.According to the risk factors of attributes and the loss of size, investors could not control for the greater risk control, external environment factors: the political environment, economic policy, throughput, Part can control, risk affect relatively small projects for internal factors: inclement weather, storm, earthquake, construction, transportation, natural deposition in accordance with water, fire, water supply and drainage project contract and contract dispute, due to pay, technical difficulties, the quality responsibility, input and output of two kinds of decision-making and project investment risk factors.
The fourth chapter used qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation experts investigation of project risk factors were studied. That project risk assessment results of 0.5 degrees, can undertake project risk investment. Major risk factors for throughput, input and output decision-making, fire control, etc.
The fifth chapter for major risk factors, and puts forward concrete measures of risk management. If multi-function service evade risk; the throughput Establish lifelong education system, employee quality, safety and environmental authentication system, digital three-dimensional enterprise and waterway dredging, special traffic highway maintenance risk management, etc. Using the joint investment, finance, insurance, building construction chosen according to international convention signed in bidding, the transfer of risk as the suggestion.
The sixth chapter summarizes research results and conclusions in the lack of that research project, and puts forward the holographic investment risk management model. This pattern is: project material analysis - risk factors identification - risk factors for qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation risk factors - - main risk factors to evade, management and transfer of the concrete measures.
The seventh chapter closing and thanks.
引文
[1].http://www.qddpc.gov.cn/ReadNews.asp?NewsID=1663青岛港发展实现新的历史跨越青岛市发展和改革委员会网站
[2].http://www.moc.gov.cn.踏平坎坷成大道——青岛港集装箱运输发展纪实
[3]王义堂林治波刘光明《青岛港风雷激荡三十年》中国社会科学出版社2008
[4]郭小碚《中国港口建设发展报告》ISBN:9787114073205
[5]林素环《我国港口建设项目投资风险管理研究》2006年10月10-11
[6]宋炳良《港口城市发展的动态研究》大连海事学院出版社2003年
[7]李爱春.浅析我国工程保险制度的构建.甘肃政法学院学报.2003,(6):55~57
[8]彭利,蒋雪辉.建设工程保险探析.内蒙古保险.1999,(2):32~33
[9]于九如《投资项目风险分析》北京机械工业出版社1999年5-9
[10][台湾]林顺民.《风险管理的信息系统》.2002 5-15
[11]沈建明《项目风险管理》机械工业出版社2004年
[12]马歇尔《企业管理》北京出版社1912年
[13]杨建平,杜瑞甫,李鼎.《大型工程项目风险管理研究进展》大型工程项目,2005 26-30
[14]Nigel J.Smith.Managing Risk in construction Projects.U.K:Black Well Science,2000
[15]汪忠,黄瑞华.《国外风险管理研究的理论、方法及其进展》.外国经济与管理2005(2)
[16]温宏伟《物流企业风险评价与控制研究》上海交通大学2007年5月
[17]Ciecharowiz. Zbianiew. Risk analvsis:requirements, conflicts and problems. Computer and Security ,1997 ( 3):223 ^-232
[18]焦健《建设项目风险控制措施实施研究》2006年3月~2007年5月
[19]于汝民《港口规划与建设》人民交通出版社,2003
[20] http://www.cnr.cn/zhuanti1/gkwlx/gkcd/200506/t20050628_504077913.html中广网
[21]《中国海洋报》《中国港口群雄逐鹿创辉煌》
[22]张娟《资本资产定价模型在港口投资风险分析中的应用》硕士学位论文大连理工大学,2005
[23]石友蓉,苏生如《沿海港口投资项目风险探析.港口与航运》2006(6):25一26
[24]吴国付.区域港口建设项目投资风险预警管理系统研究.港口装2006(2):34一38
[25]王志征,朱维鹏《某集装箱港口投资项目的蒙特卡洛风险分析》2005(3):26~28
[26]李哗,张清华.浅谈大型土木工程项目保险.上海保险.2006,(4):23~24
[27]池勇仁《项目管理》清华大学出版社
[28]《2009-2012年中国港口码头行业投资分析及前景预测报告》2009年2月
[29]Daniel Baloia,performance [J]Andrew D.F. Priceb. Modelling global risk factors affecting construction cost international Journal of Project Management 2003(21):261-269
[30]李慧《码头项目环境风险评价方法探讨》合肥学院学报自然科学版2007年8月第17卷第3版
[31]任正为《旅顺港口吞吐量及投资效益评价研究》硕士学位论文大连海事大学2000年1月1~1
[32]刘晓娥王传美《区域港口建设项目投资风险指数评估》武汉理工大学《决策参考》2007年第2期,总第231期
[2].http://www.moc.gov.cn.踏平坎坷成大道——青岛港集装箱运输发展纪实
[3]王义堂林治波刘光明《青岛港风雷激荡三十年》中国社会科学出版社2008
[4]郭小碚《中国港口建设发展报告》ISBN:9787114073205
[5]林素环《我国港口建设项目投资风险管理研究》2006年10月10-11
[6]宋炳良《港口城市发展的动态研究》大连海事学院出版社2003年
[7]李爱春.浅析我国工程保险制度的构建.甘肃政法学院学报.2003,(6):55~57
[8]彭利,蒋雪辉.建设工程保险探析.内蒙古保险.1999,(2):32~33
[9]于九如《投资项目风险分析》北京机械工业出版社1999年5-9
[10][台湾]林顺民.《风险管理的信息系统》.2002 5-15
[11]沈建明《项目风险管理》机械工业出版社2004年
[12]马歇尔《企业管理》北京出版社1912年
[13]杨建平,杜瑞甫,李鼎.《大型工程项目风险管理研究进展》大型工程项目,2005 26-30
[14]Nigel J.Smith.Managing Risk in construction Projects.U.K:Black Well Science,2000
[15]汪忠,黄瑞华.《国外风险管理研究的理论、方法及其进展》.外国经济与管理2005(2)
[16]温宏伟《物流企业风险评价与控制研究》上海交通大学2007年5月
[17]Ciecharowiz. Zbianiew. Risk analvsis:requirements, conflicts and problems. Computer and Security ,1997 ( 3):223 ^-232
[18]焦健《建设项目风险控制措施实施研究》2006年3月~2007年5月
[19]于汝民《港口规划与建设》人民交通出版社,2003
[20] http://www.cnr.cn/zhuanti1/gkwlx/gkcd/200506/t20050628_504077913.html中广网
[21]《中国海洋报》《中国港口群雄逐鹿创辉煌》
[22]张娟《资本资产定价模型在港口投资风险分析中的应用》硕士学位论文大连理工大学,2005
[23]石友蓉,苏生如《沿海港口投资项目风险探析.港口与航运》2006(6):25一26
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