洪水风险图编制中的洪水演进数值模拟研究
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摘要
洪水是我国频繁发生的自然灾害之一,严重威胁着国民的生命安全并制约着社会经济的发展,为了防御洪水和减少洪灾损失,需要采取一系列防洪减灾措施。洪水风险图是实施洪水管理的重要手段和基础。制作洪水风险图,需要可靠的信息支持,选择科学的方法,建立可靠而高效的模型。本文通过对数值模拟技术在洪水风险图的编制中的研究,探讨了洪水风险图制作的关键技术要求,阐述了当前在洪水风险分析、洪水风险评价以及洪水风险图制作等方面的技术手段和做法。
本论文主要进行了以下几方面的研究:1)洪水风险计算是绘制洪水风险图的核心内容,以水力学方法进行洪水风险分析计算,建立研究区域的一维洪水演进水动力模型是洪水风险分析计算的基础;2)糙率是一维水动力模型的重要参数,针对影响河道糙率参数的因素比较复杂,很难确定的问题,根据历史洪水模拟结果,率定不同洪水级别的糙率参数;3)针对风险图编制过程中,河道内不同频率的洪水对堤防的破坏程度不同,出现险情的位置和范围难以确定的问题,建立一维河道洪水演进模型,并根据模拟结果,通过对比模拟水位与堤顶的高程,划分堤防的风险级别,并对左堤进行合理的险情预测分析;4)溃口扩展方式的设计是直接影响淹没泛滥计算的重要因素,针对土堤漫顶造成的溃堤事件,搭建合理的溃堤模型,为二维淹没计算提供可靠的上边界条件。
Flood disaster is one of natural disaster frequently occurring in China. The human's life and safety are seriously threatened and its smooth will restrict social development of economy. In order to defend the flood and reduce flood disaster loss, we need take a series of measures for disaster reduction. Flood hazard map is an essential tool and basis for flood management. Flood hazard mapping should have reliably data, scientific method, establishing a reliable and high- efficient model. Through the research on numerical simulation techniques in flood hazard mapping in this paper, the key techniques in flood hazard mapping are presented. Advanced method and practice in flood risk analysis, flood risk assessment as well as flood hazard mapping adopted internationally are introduced.
Researchers have been carried on the following aspects: 1) Flood risk calculation is the core content of flood hazard mapping, Flood risk analysis and calculation are researched by hydraulic method, establishing one-dimensional flood-routing model of the river channel is the basis of flood risk analysis and calculation, 2) Roughness is the most important parameter of the one-dimensional hydraulic model, to influencing factors of roughness is very complexity,and it's difficult to determined what the roughness is, according to the simulation results of the historical flood, determined the roughness on the different discharge levels, 3) To different frequency of flood have different degree of damage to the dike for flood hazard mapping, while the position and the range of the risk of the dike is difficult to confirm, establish one-dimensional flood-routing model of the river channel, According to simulation results, through comparing elevation of embankment top and water level of simulation, and divided the grade of the risk, prediction and analysis of risk on the left dike based on the results, 4) The design of the breach geometry changing with the time, is the most important factor to effect on the result of two-dimensional submerged simulation, the dike will break caused by earth dike overtopping, establishing dambreak model reasonably, will provide reliable data and upper boundary for two dimensions flood routing.
本论文主要进行了以下几方面的研究:1)洪水风险计算是绘制洪水风险图的核心内容,以水力学方法进行洪水风险分析计算,建立研究区域的一维洪水演进水动力模型是洪水风险分析计算的基础;2)糙率是一维水动力模型的重要参数,针对影响河道糙率参数的因素比较复杂,很难确定的问题,根据历史洪水模拟结果,率定不同洪水级别的糙率参数;3)针对风险图编制过程中,河道内不同频率的洪水对堤防的破坏程度不同,出现险情的位置和范围难以确定的问题,建立一维河道洪水演进模型,并根据模拟结果,通过对比模拟水位与堤顶的高程,划分堤防的风险级别,并对左堤进行合理的险情预测分析;4)溃口扩展方式的设计是直接影响淹没泛滥计算的重要因素,针对土堤漫顶造成的溃堤事件,搭建合理的溃堤模型,为二维淹没计算提供可靠的上边界条件。
Flood disaster is one of natural disaster frequently occurring in China. The human's life and safety are seriously threatened and its smooth will restrict social development of economy. In order to defend the flood and reduce flood disaster loss, we need take a series of measures for disaster reduction. Flood hazard map is an essential tool and basis for flood management. Flood hazard mapping should have reliably data, scientific method, establishing a reliable and high- efficient model. Through the research on numerical simulation techniques in flood hazard mapping in this paper, the key techniques in flood hazard mapping are presented. Advanced method and practice in flood risk analysis, flood risk assessment as well as flood hazard mapping adopted internationally are introduced.
Researchers have been carried on the following aspects: 1) Flood risk calculation is the core content of flood hazard mapping, Flood risk analysis and calculation are researched by hydraulic method, establishing one-dimensional flood-routing model of the river channel is the basis of flood risk analysis and calculation, 2) Roughness is the most important parameter of the one-dimensional hydraulic model, to influencing factors of roughness is very complexity,and it's difficult to determined what the roughness is, according to the simulation results of the historical flood, determined the roughness on the different discharge levels, 3) To different frequency of flood have different degree of damage to the dike for flood hazard mapping, while the position and the range of the risk of the dike is difficult to confirm, establish one-dimensional flood-routing model of the river channel, According to simulation results, through comparing elevation of embankment top and water level of simulation, and divided the grade of the risk, prediction and analysis of risk on the left dike based on the results, 4) The design of the breach geometry changing with the time, is the most important factor to effect on the result of two-dimensional submerged simulation, the dike will break caused by earth dike overtopping, establishing dambreak model reasonably, will provide reliable data and upper boundary for two dimensions flood routing.
引文
[1]王义成,陆吉康.我国风险图编制技术标准化的讨论.中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2006,4(2):8-14.
[2]VIS,De Bruijn KM,Van Buuren M.Resilience Strategies for flood risk management in the Netherlands.International Journal of River Basin Management,2003,1:33-40.
[3]White G F.Nonstructural floodplain management study.Report to the US Water Resources Council,1979.
[4]张旭,万群志,程晓陶,陆吉康.关于全国推广洪水风险图的认识与设想.自然灾害报,1997,6(4):61-67.
[5]杜国至,李开杰.洪水风险图有关问题探析.防汛与抗旱,2006,05:33-36
[6]吴鸿亮,唐德善,周克发.沈阳市实际防洪能力评价.东北水利水电,2007,25(4):38-39.
[7]刘雅萍,孙融.辽河中下游地区防洪措施研究.东北水利水电,1999,(5):36-37.
[8]National Science Foundation.A report on flood hazard mitigation.National Science Foundation,USA,1983.
[9]刘雅萍,范雪芬.对辽宁省防洪工程建设问题的探讨.吉林水利,2007,(1):53-54.
[10]马建明,许静.国外风险图编制综述.防汛与抗旱,2005,4(2):29-31.
[11]李娜,向立云.国外风险图制作比较及对我国洪水风险图制作的建议.水利发展研究,2005,06:28-32.
[12]向立云.关于我国洪水风险图编制工作的考虑.防汛与抗旱,2005,17:14-16.
[13]程晓陶.我国推进洪水风险图绘制工作基本思路的探讨.中国水利,2005,17.
[14]Danish Hydraulic Institute.MIKE11 User Manual.
[15]周雪漪.计算水力学.北京:清华大学出版社,1994.
[16]Danish Hydraulic Institute.MIKE11 Reference Manual.
[17]王祎,谢步瀛.基于Java的平台中导ADXF文件的关键技巧.工程图学学报,2002,(2).
[18]缪燕,尹佑盛,金平,李大鹏.用JAVA语言处理AutoCAD图形数据的研究.机械设计与制造工程,2000,29(1).
[19]尤玉虎,周孝宽.数字图像最佳插值算法研究.中国空间科学技术,2005(3).
[20]张旭,姚文广,谭徐明.《洪水风险图编制导则》编订经过及主要内容说明.中国水利,2005,(17):36-37.
[21]常新秋,徐飞,徐凤琴.辽河及支流洪峰在沈阳境内传播时间研究.东北水利水电,2005,23(9):15-16.
[22]Chow,Ven Te,McGraw-Hill.Open Channel Hydraulics.New York,U.S.A,1959.
[23]Matti Kummu,Roughness Characteristics and Velocity Profile in Vegetated and Nonvegetated Channel.A Master Of Science Thesis,June,2002
[24]史明礼,苏娅等.山区河道糙率变化规律浅析.水文,2000,20(2),19-22.
[25]陈世丹,王平等.山区河道糙率变化规律初步分析及应用.安徽水利水电,1998,(1)28-32
[26]王福林.石佛寺水库一期工程在辽河干流防洪体系中的作用.东北水利水电,2000,18(7):17-18.
[27]常新秋,徐飞,徐凤琴.石佛寺水库水文自动测报系统覆盖范围的确定.东北水利水电,2003,21(4):20-21.
[28]冉四清,徐霞晴.水面线计算在堤防工程设计中的总结分析.中国水运,2007,6(5):83-84.
[29]水利部松辽水利委员会.辽河流域防洪规划.2003.
[30]李宏林,赵媛媛,张永刚等.桥梁壅水的数值算法探讨.科学论坛.
[31]水利部松辽水利委员会.辽河志.长春:吉林人民出版社,2003.
[32]粱在潮,李泰来.江河堤防防洪能力的风险分析.长江科学院院报,2001,18(2):6-10.
[33]王亚军,吴昌瑜,任大春.堤防工程风险评价体系研究.岩土工程技术,2006,20(1):1-8.
[34]粱林,倪晋仁.黄河溃堤过程数学模型及其模拟方法.中国科学,2002,32(5):618-627.
[35]Wurbs R A.Dam-breach flood wave model.Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,ASCE,1987,113(1):29-46.
[36]唐永祥,夏雨丰.二维溃坝洪水计算方法在洪水风险图编制中的应用.浙江水利科技,2004,(3):32-33.
[37]王嘉松,倪汉根,金生.二维溃坝问题的高分辨率数值模拟.上海交通大学学报,1999,33(10):1213-1216.
[38]Flood hazard map manual for technology transfer.Ministry of Land,Infrastructure and Transport,Japan,2003.
[39]Guidelines and Specifications for Flood Hazard Mapping Partners.Federal Emergency Management Agency,USA,2003.
[2]VIS,De Bruijn KM,Van Buuren M.Resilience Strategies for flood risk management in the Netherlands.International Journal of River Basin Management,2003,1:33-40.
[3]White G F.Nonstructural floodplain management study.Report to the US Water Resources Council,1979.
[4]张旭,万群志,程晓陶,陆吉康.关于全国推广洪水风险图的认识与设想.自然灾害报,1997,6(4):61-67.
[5]杜国至,李开杰.洪水风险图有关问题探析.防汛与抗旱,2006,05:33-36
[6]吴鸿亮,唐德善,周克发.沈阳市实际防洪能力评价.东北水利水电,2007,25(4):38-39.
[7]刘雅萍,孙融.辽河中下游地区防洪措施研究.东北水利水电,1999,(5):36-37.
[8]National Science Foundation.A report on flood hazard mitigation.National Science Foundation,USA,1983.
[9]刘雅萍,范雪芬.对辽宁省防洪工程建设问题的探讨.吉林水利,2007,(1):53-54.
[10]马建明,许静.国外风险图编制综述.防汛与抗旱,2005,4(2):29-31.
[11]李娜,向立云.国外风险图制作比较及对我国洪水风险图制作的建议.水利发展研究,2005,06:28-32.
[12]向立云.关于我国洪水风险图编制工作的考虑.防汛与抗旱,2005,17:14-16.
[13]程晓陶.我国推进洪水风险图绘制工作基本思路的探讨.中国水利,2005,17.
[14]Danish Hydraulic Institute.MIKE11 User Manual.
[15]周雪漪.计算水力学.北京:清华大学出版社,1994.
[16]Danish Hydraulic Institute.MIKE11 Reference Manual.
[17]王祎,谢步瀛.基于Java的平台中导ADXF文件的关键技巧.工程图学学报,2002,(2).
[18]缪燕,尹佑盛,金平,李大鹏.用JAVA语言处理AutoCAD图形数据的研究.机械设计与制造工程,2000,29(1).
[19]尤玉虎,周孝宽.数字图像最佳插值算法研究.中国空间科学技术,2005(3).
[20]张旭,姚文广,谭徐明.《洪水风险图编制导则》编订经过及主要内容说明.中国水利,2005,(17):36-37.
[21]常新秋,徐飞,徐凤琴.辽河及支流洪峰在沈阳境内传播时间研究.东北水利水电,2005,23(9):15-16.
[22]Chow,Ven Te,McGraw-Hill.Open Channel Hydraulics.New York,U.S.A,1959.
[23]Matti Kummu,Roughness Characteristics and Velocity Profile in Vegetated and Nonvegetated Channel.A Master Of Science Thesis,June,2002
[24]史明礼,苏娅等.山区河道糙率变化规律浅析.水文,2000,20(2),19-22.
[25]陈世丹,王平等.山区河道糙率变化规律初步分析及应用.安徽水利水电,1998,(1)28-32
[26]王福林.石佛寺水库一期工程在辽河干流防洪体系中的作用.东北水利水电,2000,18(7):17-18.
[27]常新秋,徐飞,徐凤琴.石佛寺水库水文自动测报系统覆盖范围的确定.东北水利水电,2003,21(4):20-21.
[28]冉四清,徐霞晴.水面线计算在堤防工程设计中的总结分析.中国水运,2007,6(5):83-84.
[29]水利部松辽水利委员会.辽河流域防洪规划.2003.
[30]李宏林,赵媛媛,张永刚等.桥梁壅水的数值算法探讨.科学论坛.
[31]水利部松辽水利委员会.辽河志.长春:吉林人民出版社,2003.
[32]粱在潮,李泰来.江河堤防防洪能力的风险分析.长江科学院院报,2001,18(2):6-10.
[33]王亚军,吴昌瑜,任大春.堤防工程风险评价体系研究.岩土工程技术,2006,20(1):1-8.
[34]粱林,倪晋仁.黄河溃堤过程数学模型及其模拟方法.中国科学,2002,32(5):618-627.
[35]Wurbs R A.Dam-breach flood wave model.Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,ASCE,1987,113(1):29-46.
[36]唐永祥,夏雨丰.二维溃坝洪水计算方法在洪水风险图编制中的应用.浙江水利科技,2004,(3):32-33.
[37]王嘉松,倪汉根,金生.二维溃坝问题的高分辨率数值模拟.上海交通大学学报,1999,33(10):1213-1216.
[38]Flood hazard map manual for technology transfer.Ministry of Land,Infrastructure and Transport,Japan,2003.
[39]Guidelines and Specifications for Flood Hazard Mapping Partners.Federal Emergency Management Agency,USA,2003.