基于洪水数值模拟的堤防安全评价与对策研究
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摘要
洪涝灾害是我国发生最频繁的自然灾害之一,严重威胁着国民的生命安全并制约着社会经济的可持续发展。近年来,随着洪水灾害事件造成的各种损失不断增大,人们在总结经济发展与洪水灾害相互竞争的关系的基础上,提出了由“洪水控制”向“洪水管理”转变的新防洪减灾策略。其中对堤防的防洪风险管理研究便是洪水管理的重要工作之一。以往人们在防洪规划中,往往注重建设而忽视管理,导致堤防越修越高,而一旦溃口,造成的损失将更为严重。因此,非常有必要对堤防防洪过程中的风险进行识别和评估,提出应对办法,妥善地处理风险事件造成的不利后果,加强防洪非工程措施,从而提高洪水风险管理的能力。本文以辽河下游堤防及其保护区为研究实例,以洪水数值模拟为基础,对堤防防洪的失事风险率评价以及溃口应急对策展开了研究。
论文的主要内容如下：
(1)利用MIKE21二维数值模型对辽河下游河道洪水演进进行了模拟,得出了不同设计频率来水条件下河道的行洪水面线,并模拟和分析了不规则河道中生产堤对行洪能力的影响。通过与MIKE11一维洪水模拟结果对比表明,MIKE21的模拟结果较好,可以应用于堤防防洪安全评价中。
(2)基于事故树的基本思想,建立了堤防漫堤失事模糊风险率评价模型,该模型以洪水数值模拟的河道洪水位为评价条件,考虑了河道行洪不确定性、风速随机性与漫堤失事模糊性。将建立的评价模型应用于辽河下游堤防安全评价实例中,对不同频率来水条件下不同堤防断面的漫堤失事风险率进行评价,同时还对影响风险率的因子如运行时间、河道整治与堤防管理水平进行了分析。结果表明,通过所建立的模型可以在洪水模拟的条件下预测堤防的易出险断面,并对堤防防洪风险不确定性进行分析,评价结果可以为提高堤防的防洪能力提供依据。
(3)在辽河下游已有的防洪体系与洪水风险图编制成果的基础上,结合堤防防洪风险评价结果,提出了“裹、减、堵、撤、排、围、建”的辽河下游堤防溃口应急总体对策,并对具体实施方案进行了论述,然后以典型L99险工溃口为实例,展开了研究,通过实例分析可以看出,利用洪水风险图制定防洪应急对策,可操作性强,且具有针对性,可以将洪水风险管理措施更好地应用于实时防洪抢险中。
最后对全文做了总结,并对有待于进一步研究的问题进行了展望。
Flood disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in China, which happens with high frequency and high loss, and affects the sustainable development of society. In recent years, with the flood disaster loss increasing, a new strategy defined flood management has been proposed instead of flood control through summarizing the relationship between economy development and flood disaster. Among which, dike risk management is one of the important tasks for flood management. Formerly, when people made the flood control plan, they always focused on building and neglected management, which caused the dike being constructing more and more higher. Once dike burst happens, the flood disaster will be more serious. Therefore, it is necessary to identify and evaluate the flood control risk of dike by using scientific methods, and then put forward responses for handling the adverse consequences. The purpose of dike risk management is to improve capability for flood management. In this paper, the risk analysis for dike safety and emergency measures for dike burst is studied based on flood routing numerical simulation in the lower reaches of Liaohe River. The main research work is outlines as follows:
(1) The flood routing numerical simulation model is established by using MIKE21 in the study area, and the flood hydrograph is simulated at the different designed frequency of flood. Then the effect of production dike on flood carrying capacity is analyzed. Through comparing the simulated result of MIKE21 model with that of MIKE 11 model, the simulated flood hydrograph is considered to be reasonable, and can be used in assessing the risk of dike safety.
(2) A model of analyzing the overtopping failure risk of dike is established based on the method of fault tree. The simulated water level is taken as basic condition, and the uncertainty of river flood, Randomness of wind speed and ambiguity of dike burst is considered in this model. Then the dike safety in the lower Liaohe River is evaluated by using the proposed model to predict the dangerous condition of existing dike engineering. Simultaneity, the effect of factors including running time, river regulation and dike management are also analyzed. The result can provide decision supports for improving flood control capacity of dike.
(3) Combining the evaluated result of dike safety with the achievements of flood hazard map and flood control system, the emergency measures for dike burst is proposed in the study area, which can be summarized as:'roll, reduce, block, evacuate, drain, enclose and rebuild'. The each measure is also explained in detail. Then taking the L99 dike section burst as case study, the corresponding measures are advanced to decrease the flood loss. From the example analysis, it can be deduced that the emergency measures based on flood hazard map is exercisable for real-time flood rescue.
Finally, the conclusions are given and some problems to further study are discussed.
论文的主要内容如下：
(1)利用MIKE21二维数值模型对辽河下游河道洪水演进进行了模拟,得出了不同设计频率来水条件下河道的行洪水面线,并模拟和分析了不规则河道中生产堤对行洪能力的影响。通过与MIKE11一维洪水模拟结果对比表明,MIKE21的模拟结果较好,可以应用于堤防防洪安全评价中。
(2)基于事故树的基本思想,建立了堤防漫堤失事模糊风险率评价模型,该模型以洪水数值模拟的河道洪水位为评价条件,考虑了河道行洪不确定性、风速随机性与漫堤失事模糊性。将建立的评价模型应用于辽河下游堤防安全评价实例中,对不同频率来水条件下不同堤防断面的漫堤失事风险率进行评价,同时还对影响风险率的因子如运行时间、河道整治与堤防管理水平进行了分析。结果表明,通过所建立的模型可以在洪水模拟的条件下预测堤防的易出险断面,并对堤防防洪风险不确定性进行分析,评价结果可以为提高堤防的防洪能力提供依据。
(3)在辽河下游已有的防洪体系与洪水风险图编制成果的基础上,结合堤防防洪风险评价结果,提出了“裹、减、堵、撤、排、围、建”的辽河下游堤防溃口应急总体对策,并对具体实施方案进行了论述,然后以典型L99险工溃口为实例,展开了研究,通过实例分析可以看出,利用洪水风险图制定防洪应急对策,可操作性强,且具有针对性,可以将洪水风险管理措施更好地应用于实时防洪抢险中。
最后对全文做了总结,并对有待于进一步研究的问题进行了展望。
Flood disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in China, which happens with high frequency and high loss, and affects the sustainable development of society. In recent years, with the flood disaster loss increasing, a new strategy defined flood management has been proposed instead of flood control through summarizing the relationship between economy development and flood disaster. Among which, dike risk management is one of the important tasks for flood management. Formerly, when people made the flood control plan, they always focused on building and neglected management, which caused the dike being constructing more and more higher. Once dike burst happens, the flood disaster will be more serious. Therefore, it is necessary to identify and evaluate the flood control risk of dike by using scientific methods, and then put forward responses for handling the adverse consequences. The purpose of dike risk management is to improve capability for flood management. In this paper, the risk analysis for dike safety and emergency measures for dike burst is studied based on flood routing numerical simulation in the lower reaches of Liaohe River. The main research work is outlines as follows:
(1) The flood routing numerical simulation model is established by using MIKE21 in the study area, and the flood hydrograph is simulated at the different designed frequency of flood. Then the effect of production dike on flood carrying capacity is analyzed. Through comparing the simulated result of MIKE21 model with that of MIKE 11 model, the simulated flood hydrograph is considered to be reasonable, and can be used in assessing the risk of dike safety.
(2) A model of analyzing the overtopping failure risk of dike is established based on the method of fault tree. The simulated water level is taken as basic condition, and the uncertainty of river flood, Randomness of wind speed and ambiguity of dike burst is considered in this model. Then the dike safety in the lower Liaohe River is evaluated by using the proposed model to predict the dangerous condition of existing dike engineering. Simultaneity, the effect of factors including running time, river regulation and dike management are also analyzed. The result can provide decision supports for improving flood control capacity of dike.
(3) Combining the evaluated result of dike safety with the achievements of flood hazard map and flood control system, the emergency measures for dike burst is proposed in the study area, which can be summarized as:'roll, reduce, block, evacuate, drain, enclose and rebuild'. The each measure is also explained in detail. Then taking the L99 dike section burst as case study, the corresponding measures are advanced to decrease the flood loss. From the example analysis, it can be deduced that the emergency measures based on flood hazard map is exercisable for real-time flood rescue.
Finally, the conclusions are given and some problems to further study are discussed.
引文
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