青岛市官路水库水资源论证研究
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摘要
青岛市是我国北方严重缺水城市之一,随着城市建设和社会经济的迅速发展,水资源供需矛盾日趋严重,水资源问题亦成为青岛市经济社会可持续发展的重要制约因素。
本文以开源节流并举、节流优先为原则,对青岛市水资源的开发利用现状进行了分析评价,以2015年为近期水平年,2030年为远景年,分析了水资源市区供求关系。在对青岛市的现有水源以及中水回用、海水利用等多种水源进行分析的基础上,重点对黄河水源、大沽河水源以及南水北调的长江水源进行了分析论证。从水资源角度对官路水库工程规模进行了分析,论证结果表明官路水库可大大缓解青岛市的水资源供求矛盾。主要研究结论有:
1、以青岛市经济社会发展目标为依据,对近年来实际用水情况进行了调查分析,根据优先节水,多种水源优化配置、科学调度的原则,对青岛全市及官路水库供水区进行了不同水平年水资源供需平衡分析。分析结果表明,青岛全市2015年缺水1.33亿m~3,2030年缺水2.21亿m~3。为解决缺水状况,充分挖掘当地水资源潜力以及实施跨流域调水工程是必要的。
2采用利津站1980～2006年系列分析了黄河来水以及引黄济青渠首从黄河可引水量和引水天数。P=95%、引水时间为9～3月份时,黄河可引水量为2.45亿m~3。引黄济青工程依靠延长引黄时间,来增加青岛市的供水能力的潜力,已被胶东调水工程利用,向青岛增加引黄水量的难度很大。
3、对引用当地大沽河水量进行了分析论证。根据流域内大中小型水利工程、支流分布及河流所属地市情况对流域进行单元划分,采用长系列变动用水沿河自上而下逐级对各单元区进行径流调节计算。经分析,95%频率下官路水库能从大沽河引水量为460万m~3。
4、对官路水库进行了多方案调节计算。分析恢复官路水库的必要性。
5、官路水库对水资源状况影响甚小,对其它取水用户无不利影响,还会产生巨大环境效益。本文还从需水预测、供水预测等方面定性分析了一些不确定和风险因素,以提高城市供水的安全性,有利于促进青岛市经济社会的可持续发展。
Qingdao is a city one of the serious water shortage cities in northern China,With the city's rapid construction and socio-economic development,the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources become more and more serious, water resources has become key constraints of economic and social sustainable development in Qingdao City.
On the basis of the principle of finding new water resources and reducing expenditure simultaneously,giving the priority to the latter,using the fundamental theory on inter-basin water transfer,water saving and rational allocation of water resources,considering the year 2015 as near-term horizon year,the year 2030 as long-term horizon year,my thesis analyses and estimates present states of water resources and its exploitation and utilization of Qingdao,and also construes the relationship between water resources supply and demand.Based on the analysis of utilization of the existing water sources,usage of sea water and reuse of waste water, the paper makes an verification of riverhead of the project of water diversion from yellow river to Qingdao,supply sources of Dagu river and Changjiang river through the South-to-North Water Transfer Project.The paper analyzes the feasibility of tapping potential of the project of water diversion from yellow river to Qingdao from the point of view of water resources.The results suggest that the potential can greatly alleviate the conflict between the water resources supply and demand of Qingdao,and the conclusions are as follows:
1.On the basis of the investigation and analysis of the existing conditions of water uses,on the principle of giving priority to water saving,operating water projects optimally and allocating water resources rationally,the paper makes a water resources supply and demand balance analysis for different horizon years.The results show a water deficit of 133 million m~3 in 2015 and 221 million m~3 in 2030.in order to solve the problem,exploitation of the water resources potential efficiently and construction of the inter-basin water diversion project are very necessary.
2.Data series of 1980-2006 of Lijin hydrology station are applied to analyze Yellow River flow and available water amount to be diverted.In case of P=95%,the available water amount to be diverted is 245 million m~3 in the period of September to March in the next year.As some Yellow River water diverted to Jiaodong,it is difficult to increase water supply for Qingdao from Yellow River.
3.Water diversion from Dagu river is verified.The river basin is divided into computation units based on sizes of water resources projects,tributary location and its administrative divisions.Results of runoff regulation computation show that 4.6 million m~3 of water quantity may be diverted from Dagu River in case of p=95%.
4.Multiple scenarios are analyzed for operation of GuanLu reservoir.It is necessary to recover the project of GuanLu reservoir.
5.The rehabilitation of the project of GuanLu Reservoir will produce great environment benefit but no adverse effect on water resources condition and other water users.The paper makes qualitative analysis on uncertainties and risks for water demand and supply forecast and so on to improve the security of city water supply and the social and economic sustainable development of Qingdao.
本文以开源节流并举、节流优先为原则,对青岛市水资源的开发利用现状进行了分析评价,以2015年为近期水平年,2030年为远景年,分析了水资源市区供求关系。在对青岛市的现有水源以及中水回用、海水利用等多种水源进行分析的基础上,重点对黄河水源、大沽河水源以及南水北调的长江水源进行了分析论证。从水资源角度对官路水库工程规模进行了分析,论证结果表明官路水库可大大缓解青岛市的水资源供求矛盾。主要研究结论有:
1、以青岛市经济社会发展目标为依据,对近年来实际用水情况进行了调查分析,根据优先节水,多种水源优化配置、科学调度的原则,对青岛全市及官路水库供水区进行了不同水平年水资源供需平衡分析。分析结果表明,青岛全市2015年缺水1.33亿m~3,2030年缺水2.21亿m~3。为解决缺水状况,充分挖掘当地水资源潜力以及实施跨流域调水工程是必要的。
2采用利津站1980～2006年系列分析了黄河来水以及引黄济青渠首从黄河可引水量和引水天数。P=95%、引水时间为9～3月份时,黄河可引水量为2.45亿m~3。引黄济青工程依靠延长引黄时间,来增加青岛市的供水能力的潜力,已被胶东调水工程利用,向青岛增加引黄水量的难度很大。
3、对引用当地大沽河水量进行了分析论证。根据流域内大中小型水利工程、支流分布及河流所属地市情况对流域进行单元划分,采用长系列变动用水沿河自上而下逐级对各单元区进行径流调节计算。经分析,95%频率下官路水库能从大沽河引水量为460万m~3。
4、对官路水库进行了多方案调节计算。分析恢复官路水库的必要性。
5、官路水库对水资源状况影响甚小,对其它取水用户无不利影响,还会产生巨大环境效益。本文还从需水预测、供水预测等方面定性分析了一些不确定和风险因素,以提高城市供水的安全性,有利于促进青岛市经济社会的可持续发展。
Qingdao is a city one of the serious water shortage cities in northern China,With the city's rapid construction and socio-economic development,the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources become more and more serious, water resources has become key constraints of economic and social sustainable development in Qingdao City.
On the basis of the principle of finding new water resources and reducing expenditure simultaneously,giving the priority to the latter,using the fundamental theory on inter-basin water transfer,water saving and rational allocation of water resources,considering the year 2015 as near-term horizon year,the year 2030 as long-term horizon year,my thesis analyses and estimates present states of water resources and its exploitation and utilization of Qingdao,and also construes the relationship between water resources supply and demand.Based on the analysis of utilization of the existing water sources,usage of sea water and reuse of waste water, the paper makes an verification of riverhead of the project of water diversion from yellow river to Qingdao,supply sources of Dagu river and Changjiang river through the South-to-North Water Transfer Project.The paper analyzes the feasibility of tapping potential of the project of water diversion from yellow river to Qingdao from the point of view of water resources.The results suggest that the potential can greatly alleviate the conflict between the water resources supply and demand of Qingdao,and the conclusions are as follows:
1.On the basis of the investigation and analysis of the existing conditions of water uses,on the principle of giving priority to water saving,operating water projects optimally and allocating water resources rationally,the paper makes a water resources supply and demand balance analysis for different horizon years.The results show a water deficit of 133 million m~3 in 2015 and 221 million m~3 in 2030.in order to solve the problem,exploitation of the water resources potential efficiently and construction of the inter-basin water diversion project are very necessary.
2.Data series of 1980-2006 of Lijin hydrology station are applied to analyze Yellow River flow and available water amount to be diverted.In case of P=95%,the available water amount to be diverted is 245 million m~3 in the period of September to March in the next year.As some Yellow River water diverted to Jiaodong,it is difficult to increase water supply for Qingdao from Yellow River.
3.Water diversion from Dagu river is verified.The river basin is divided into computation units based on sizes of water resources projects,tributary location and its administrative divisions.Results of runoff regulation computation show that 4.6 million m~3 of water quantity may be diverted from Dagu River in case of p=95%.
4.Multiple scenarios are analyzed for operation of GuanLu reservoir.It is necessary to recover the project of GuanLu reservoir.
5.The rehabilitation of the project of GuanLu Reservoir will produce great environment benefit but no adverse effect on water resources condition and other water users.The paper makes qualitative analysis on uncertainties and risks for water demand and supply forecast and so on to improve the security of city water supply and the social and economic sustainable development of Qingdao.
引文
[1]Turton A.R,Water Scarcity and Social Adaptive Capacity:Towards an Understanding of the Social Dynamics of Managing Water Scarcity in Developing Countries,MEWREW Occasional Paper 9,Center of Middle Eastern Studies and the Center for African Studies,University of London Great Britain,1999
[2]陈传友,王春元,高迎春,论水资源学,水利水电科技进展,第22卷第2期,2002.4
[3]汪承杰,水资源计算与评价,南京:南京大学出版社,1993
[4]Varis O,Vakkilainen P.China's 8 challenges to water resources management in the first quarter of the 2tst Century[J].Geomorphology,2001(41):93-104
[5]刘昌明,陈志恺.2001.中国水资源现状评价和供需发展趋势分析.北京:中国水利水电出版社
[6]Plate E.J.,1993.Sustainable Development of Water Resources:A Challenge to Science and Engineering,Water International,1993,18(2):84-93
[7]陈莹.2004.节水型社会系统理论及其驱动因子研究[D].北京师范大学博士学位论文
[8]Biswas A.K.,1991.Water for Sustainable Development in the 21st Century [J],Water International,1991,17(4):219-224
[9]棘洪滩水库第二水厂一期工程水资源论证,山东省水利勘测设计院
[10]山东省引黄济青改扩建工程可行性研究,山东省水利勘测设计院
[11]Miguel A,Marino,Slobodan.P,Simonvic,Integrated Water Resources Mnangement,IAHS,2001
[12]M.AL-Rashed,V.P.Singh,M.M.Sherif,Water Resource Development and Management,A.A.Balkema,2002
[13]冯尚友,水资源可持续利用与管理导论,北京:科学出版社,2000
[14 吴季松,现代水资源管理概论,北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002
[15]左其亭,陈曦,面向可持续发展的水资源规划与管理,北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003
[16]Buras,N.,(1972).Scientific Allocation of Water Resources[M],American Elsevier Publication Co.,Inc.,New York
[17]Loucks,D.P.,Stedinger,J.R.and Haith D.A.(1981)."Water resources systems planning and analysis"[M].Prentice-Hall,Englewood Cliffs,New Jersey.
[18]Yeh,W.W-G(1985)."Reservoir management and operation models:A state-of-the-art"[J].Water Resour.Res.21(12):1797-1818
[19]许新宜等.华北地区宏观经济水资源规划理论与方法.郑州:黄河水利出版社.1997
[20]甘泓.2002.水资源合理配置理论与实践研究[D].中国水利水电科学研究院
[21]王浩.2003.黄淮海流域水资源合理配置.北京:科学出版社.
[22]中国水利水电科学研究院.西北地区水资源合理开发利用与生态环境保护研究[R].2000
[23]A.A.索柯洛夫、И.A.希克洛曼夫主编,赵抱力译,水资源的区域再分配,水利电力出版社,1985
[24]黄淮海流域水资源合理配置研究,中国水利水电科学研究院,2001年11月.
[25]王劲峰、刘昌明、王智勇等,水资源空间配置的边际效益均衡模型,中国科学,2001,31(5)
[26]刘国纬等,跨流域调水运行管理,北京:中国水利水电出版社,1995
[27]官路水库工程项目建议书,青岛市水利勘测设计研究院,2004年
[28]山东省水资源综合规划,山东省发展和改革委员会、山东省水利厅2007年
[29]山东省水资源公报(2000～2006),山东省水利厅
[30]青岛市城市总体规划
[31]青岛统计年鉴(1997～2006),青岛市统计局,
[32]山东省发改委组编,山东人口发展战略研究,2004
[33]青岛市水资源综合规划总体报告,青岛市水利勘测设计研究院有限公司
[34]青岛市中水、海水利用规划,青岛市水利勘测设计研究院有限公司,2004年12月
[35]青岛市官路水库工程水资源论证,山东省水利勘测设计院,2005
[2]陈传友,王春元,高迎春,论水资源学,水利水电科技进展,第22卷第2期,2002.4
[3]汪承杰,水资源计算与评价,南京:南京大学出版社,1993
[4]Varis O,Vakkilainen P.China's 8 challenges to water resources management in the first quarter of the 2tst Century[J].Geomorphology,2001(41):93-104
[5]刘昌明,陈志恺.2001.中国水资源现状评价和供需发展趋势分析.北京:中国水利水电出版社
[6]Plate E.J.,1993.Sustainable Development of Water Resources:A Challenge to Science and Engineering,Water International,1993,18(2):84-93
[7]陈莹.2004.节水型社会系统理论及其驱动因子研究[D].北京师范大学博士学位论文
[8]Biswas A.K.,1991.Water for Sustainable Development in the 21st Century [J],Water International,1991,17(4):219-224
[9]棘洪滩水库第二水厂一期工程水资源论证,山东省水利勘测设计院
[10]山东省引黄济青改扩建工程可行性研究,山东省水利勘测设计院
[11]Miguel A,Marino,Slobodan.P,Simonvic,Integrated Water Resources Mnangement,IAHS,2001
[12]M.AL-Rashed,V.P.Singh,M.M.Sherif,Water Resource Development and Management,A.A.Balkema,2002
[13]冯尚友,水资源可持续利用与管理导论,北京:科学出版社,2000
[14 吴季松,现代水资源管理概论,北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002
[15]左其亭,陈曦,面向可持续发展的水资源规划与管理,北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003
[16]Buras,N.,(1972).Scientific Allocation of Water Resources[M],American Elsevier Publication Co.,Inc.,New York
[17]Loucks,D.P.,Stedinger,J.R.and Haith D.A.(1981)."Water resources systems planning and analysis"[M].Prentice-Hall,Englewood Cliffs,New Jersey.
[18]Yeh,W.W-G(1985)."Reservoir management and operation models:A state-of-the-art"[J].Water Resour.Res.21(12):1797-1818
[19]许新宜等.华北地区宏观经济水资源规划理论与方法.郑州:黄河水利出版社.1997
[20]甘泓.2002.水资源合理配置理论与实践研究[D].中国水利水电科学研究院
[21]王浩.2003.黄淮海流域水资源合理配置.北京:科学出版社.
[22]中国水利水电科学研究院.西北地区水资源合理开发利用与生态环境保护研究[R].2000
[23]A.A.索柯洛夫、И.A.希克洛曼夫主编,赵抱力译,水资源的区域再分配,水利电力出版社,1985
[24]黄淮海流域水资源合理配置研究,中国水利水电科学研究院,2001年11月.
[25]王劲峰、刘昌明、王智勇等,水资源空间配置的边际效益均衡模型,中国科学,2001,31(5)
[26]刘国纬等,跨流域调水运行管理,北京:中国水利水电出版社,1995
[27]官路水库工程项目建议书,青岛市水利勘测设计研究院,2004年
[28]山东省水资源综合规划,山东省发展和改革委员会、山东省水利厅2007年
[29]山东省水资源公报(2000～2006),山东省水利厅
[30]青岛市城市总体规划
[31]青岛统计年鉴(1997～2006),青岛市统计局,
[32]山东省发改委组编,山东人口发展战略研究,2004
[33]青岛市水资源综合规划总体报告,青岛市水利勘测设计研究院有限公司
[34]青岛市中水、海水利用规划,青岛市水利勘测设计研究院有限公司,2004年12月
[35]青岛市官路水库工程水资源论证,山东省水利勘测设计院,2005