基于混沌与博弈理论的供应链系统协调研究
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摘要
随着供应链管理思想的发展,越来越多的企业认识到供应链系统协调是提高供应链竞争力的重点问题。由于利益的原因,在建立合作伙伴关系中,双方之间往往存在着对抗和竞争,需要供应链系统节点企业达成协调合作的关系。然而,协调合作关系的建立不可能是一蹴而就的,而是需要在供应链系统节点企业供应链系统成员之间竞争和合作动态演化中的行为特性不断的动态调整并相互适应中逐渐形成。因此,需要深入分析供应链系统成员之间竞争和合作动态演化中的行为特性,从而推进供应链系统协调关系的建立,提高供应链系统的竞争力。
本文以系统工程思想为基础,将混沌理论与博弈理论相结合,运用理论模型分析和动态仿真的方法对供应链系统协调问题进行系统研究。这是对传统供应链管理理论的必要补充,对完善供应链系统协调理论和实践有一定的理论参考价值,对推动混沌理论走向经济管理实际也有一定的实践指导意义。主要的创新性工作和研究结论如下：
(1)提出了供应链系统协调的三个层次观,即同级企业间的竞争型协调、上下游企业间的合作型协调、供应链系统与环境的适应型协调,并提出了将混沌理论与博弈理论融入到供应链系统协调问题的研究脉络。
(2)以产量博弈模型为基础,从静态和动态两个角度深入研究了两家同级企业间产量的协调问题,说明了同级企业建立竞争型协调的必要性,并为他们建立竞争型协调管理提供了理论基础。其中动态产量协调分析是运用混沌理论,开创性地对产量调整速度变动引起的产量混沌等复杂动力学行为及相应利润的协同变化进行了综合研究；然后结合双方博弈策略特征,选用了参数自适应反馈控制方法有效地把产量博弈系统的混沌状态引导到均衡状态；进而探讨了产量上限控制对同级企业平均利润的影响,从而提出供应链系统同级企业间竞争型协调的措施。
(3)研究了上下游企业间的价格和库存协调问题。以随机需求下的Stackelberg产品博弈定价问题为基础研究供应链系统上下游企业(制造商与零售商)之间的价格协调策略；通过理论模型推导和基于均匀分布以及拟正态分布随机需求下的模型仿真分析,对比研究了基本条件、信息共享、集中决策及非共享信息时的4种价格折扣策略情形下,供应链系统最优订货量、最优利润和价格策略,理论分析结果与数值仿真结果完全一致,并符合实际情况,为上下游企业选择合适的价格协调措施提供理论参考。此外,基于包括制造商和零售商的供应链系统模型,运用数值模拟的方法,研究了供应链系统中零售商库存相对于价格折扣率指数的混沌行为,创新性地提出了采用反馈控制制造商产量的方法,实现了零售商库存的稳定性；最后并利用shapely值法解决了联合库存管理中仓库建设费用分摊问题,为供应链系统上下游企业间的库存协调提供了理论参考。
(4)分析了供应链系统与环境的适应机理,基于演化博弈模型研究了政府引导传统供应链系统核心企业实施绿色供应链管理的条件,提出了供应链系统与环境相适应的内部演化和外部激励的双重协调机制,引导供应链系统核心企业采取绿色供应链管理。
(5)结合理论研究结论,对煤炭行业供应链系统协调措施初步进行了案例分析。对同级煤炭企业间的产量的竞争型协调、上下游企业间的煤炭价格的合作型协调及煤炭行业供应链系统向绿色供应链系统演化的问题进行了分析,并提出了对策建议。
With the development of supply chain management,more and more enterprises recognize that the supply chain system(Abbreviated as SCS) coordination becomes the focus to improve the supply chain competitiveness. For the reasons of interests,there often exists confrontation and competition between the two sides in the establishment of partnership,which requires the node enterprise to form the relationship of coordination and cooperation in the supply chain systems. However,the coordination and cooperation of SCS can not be achieved overnight, but to be formed gradually in constant dynamic evolution of node enterprises in SCS. Therefore, it is urgent need for depth analysis of the behavior of SCS members during the dynamic evolution in competition and cooperation, in order to promote coordination in SCS,and enhance SCS competitiveness.
Bases on systematic engineering thought, unifies chaos theory and game theory, the thesis devotes to systematic study on SCS coordination by theoretical analysis and dynamic simulation model. So the research is a necessary complement to the traditional supply chain management theory.It will surely provide important theory reference to improve supply chain management theory and practice,and it also give a practice guide to the promotion of chaos theory to actual economic management. So major work and research findings in the thesis were as follows:
(1) The three-level-view coordination of SCS was proposed,i.e.including of competition type coordination between enterprises at the same level, cooperative type coordination betweeen up and down stream enterprises, and adaptive type coordination of SCS vis to vis the environment.And the research idea of combining chaos control and system coordination theory and approach are put forward to SCS coordination.
(2) Based on the output game model, the output coordination of two enterprises at the same level in SCS were researched form the aspect of static state and dynamic state, the rusult shows the same level suppliers must establish a competitive type coordination relationship, and provides a theoretical basis for them to build competitive-type coordination relation. In which dynamic production coordination is based on chaos theory, and it is carry out a ground-breaking research on the complex dynamics of production chaotic behavior and corresponding changes in profit collaborative caused by speed of the production adjustment. Combining game strategy features of both sides, the parameters adaptive feedback control method was applied to effectively lead the system from chaotic state into the equilibrium state. And the impact of the production ceiling control to the average profit of two companies at the same level in SCS was researched through numerical simulation, according coordinate measures were put forward to enterprises at the same level in SCS.
(3) The price and inventory co-ordination problems were researched between up and down stream in SCS. Based on Stackelberg product game pricing problem under random demand, price coordination problem was studied between up and down stream enterprises (manufacturers and retailers) in SCS. Through theoretical analysis and coordination simulation based on stochastic demand subjecting to the uniform distribution and the normal distribution, comparatively research on the strategies of optimal order quantity, optimal pricing and profits for SCS under the circumstances of the basic conditions, information sharing, centralized decision-making and four kinds of price discounts on non-sharing of information, the results of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation results is fully consistent,and accord with the actual situation, which provide a theoretical reference to choose the right coordination measures of upstream and downstream enterprises.Besides based on a SCS model including manufacturers and retailers, the chaotic behavior of retailer's stock relative to discount rate in SCS is studied by numerical simulation methods, then the innovative methods of feedback control on the manufacturer's production is put forward.And the fee of the warehouse construction share by Shapely value in joint inventory management is given a pilot test, so provide a theoretical reference for inventory coordination of the upstream and downstream enterprises in SCS.
(4) The mechanism of SCS adapting to the ever-changing environment is studied, and the conditions to guide enterprises to implement green supply chains are analyzed in the case of market mechanism and government macro-control by game evolution theory. A dual coordination mechanism of internal adjustments and external inspiration was proposed for SCS adapt to the environment, and guide the core enterprises to adopt the green supply chain management.
(5) Applied theoretical research conclusions, a preliminary analysis and application to coordinate measures in coal industry SCS was conducted. The issues of the production competitive coordination between the same level coal enterprises, the cooperative coal prices coordinate between upstream and downstream enterprises and SCS evolutive to the green supply chain are analyzed,at last countermeasures are put forward.
本文以系统工程思想为基础,将混沌理论与博弈理论相结合,运用理论模型分析和动态仿真的方法对供应链系统协调问题进行系统研究。这是对传统供应链管理理论的必要补充,对完善供应链系统协调理论和实践有一定的理论参考价值,对推动混沌理论走向经济管理实际也有一定的实践指导意义。主要的创新性工作和研究结论如下：
(1)提出了供应链系统协调的三个层次观,即同级企业间的竞争型协调、上下游企业间的合作型协调、供应链系统与环境的适应型协调,并提出了将混沌理论与博弈理论融入到供应链系统协调问题的研究脉络。
(2)以产量博弈模型为基础,从静态和动态两个角度深入研究了两家同级企业间产量的协调问题,说明了同级企业建立竞争型协调的必要性,并为他们建立竞争型协调管理提供了理论基础。其中动态产量协调分析是运用混沌理论,开创性地对产量调整速度变动引起的产量混沌等复杂动力学行为及相应利润的协同变化进行了综合研究；然后结合双方博弈策略特征,选用了参数自适应反馈控制方法有效地把产量博弈系统的混沌状态引导到均衡状态；进而探讨了产量上限控制对同级企业平均利润的影响,从而提出供应链系统同级企业间竞争型协调的措施。
(3)研究了上下游企业间的价格和库存协调问题。以随机需求下的Stackelberg产品博弈定价问题为基础研究供应链系统上下游企业(制造商与零售商)之间的价格协调策略；通过理论模型推导和基于均匀分布以及拟正态分布随机需求下的模型仿真分析,对比研究了基本条件、信息共享、集中决策及非共享信息时的4种价格折扣策略情形下,供应链系统最优订货量、最优利润和价格策略,理论分析结果与数值仿真结果完全一致,并符合实际情况,为上下游企业选择合适的价格协调措施提供理论参考。此外,基于包括制造商和零售商的供应链系统模型,运用数值模拟的方法,研究了供应链系统中零售商库存相对于价格折扣率指数的混沌行为,创新性地提出了采用反馈控制制造商产量的方法,实现了零售商库存的稳定性；最后并利用shapely值法解决了联合库存管理中仓库建设费用分摊问题,为供应链系统上下游企业间的库存协调提供了理论参考。
(4)分析了供应链系统与环境的适应机理,基于演化博弈模型研究了政府引导传统供应链系统核心企业实施绿色供应链管理的条件,提出了供应链系统与环境相适应的内部演化和外部激励的双重协调机制,引导供应链系统核心企业采取绿色供应链管理。
(5)结合理论研究结论,对煤炭行业供应链系统协调措施初步进行了案例分析。对同级煤炭企业间的产量的竞争型协调、上下游企业间的煤炭价格的合作型协调及煤炭行业供应链系统向绿色供应链系统演化的问题进行了分析,并提出了对策建议。
With the development of supply chain management,more and more enterprises recognize that the supply chain system(Abbreviated as SCS) coordination becomes the focus to improve the supply chain competitiveness. For the reasons of interests,there often exists confrontation and competition between the two sides in the establishment of partnership,which requires the node enterprise to form the relationship of coordination and cooperation in the supply chain systems. However,the coordination and cooperation of SCS can not be achieved overnight, but to be formed gradually in constant dynamic evolution of node enterprises in SCS. Therefore, it is urgent need for depth analysis of the behavior of SCS members during the dynamic evolution in competition and cooperation, in order to promote coordination in SCS,and enhance SCS competitiveness.
Bases on systematic engineering thought, unifies chaos theory and game theory, the thesis devotes to systematic study on SCS coordination by theoretical analysis and dynamic simulation model. So the research is a necessary complement to the traditional supply chain management theory.It will surely provide important theory reference to improve supply chain management theory and practice,and it also give a practice guide to the promotion of chaos theory to actual economic management. So major work and research findings in the thesis were as follows:
(1) The three-level-view coordination of SCS was proposed,i.e.including of competition type coordination between enterprises at the same level, cooperative type coordination betweeen up and down stream enterprises, and adaptive type coordination of SCS vis to vis the environment.And the research idea of combining chaos control and system coordination theory and approach are put forward to SCS coordination.
(2) Based on the output game model, the output coordination of two enterprises at the same level in SCS were researched form the aspect of static state and dynamic state, the rusult shows the same level suppliers must establish a competitive type coordination relationship, and provides a theoretical basis for them to build competitive-type coordination relation. In which dynamic production coordination is based on chaos theory, and it is carry out a ground-breaking research on the complex dynamics of production chaotic behavior and corresponding changes in profit collaborative caused by speed of the production adjustment. Combining game strategy features of both sides, the parameters adaptive feedback control method was applied to effectively lead the system from chaotic state into the equilibrium state. And the impact of the production ceiling control to the average profit of two companies at the same level in SCS was researched through numerical simulation, according coordinate measures were put forward to enterprises at the same level in SCS.
(3) The price and inventory co-ordination problems were researched between up and down stream in SCS. Based on Stackelberg product game pricing problem under random demand, price coordination problem was studied between up and down stream enterprises (manufacturers and retailers) in SCS. Through theoretical analysis and coordination simulation based on stochastic demand subjecting to the uniform distribution and the normal distribution, comparatively research on the strategies of optimal order quantity, optimal pricing and profits for SCS under the circumstances of the basic conditions, information sharing, centralized decision-making and four kinds of price discounts on non-sharing of information, the results of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation results is fully consistent,and accord with the actual situation, which provide a theoretical reference to choose the right coordination measures of upstream and downstream enterprises.Besides based on a SCS model including manufacturers and retailers, the chaotic behavior of retailer's stock relative to discount rate in SCS is studied by numerical simulation methods, then the innovative methods of feedback control on the manufacturer's production is put forward.And the fee of the warehouse construction share by Shapely value in joint inventory management is given a pilot test, so provide a theoretical reference for inventory coordination of the upstream and downstream enterprises in SCS.
(4) The mechanism of SCS adapting to the ever-changing environment is studied, and the conditions to guide enterprises to implement green supply chains are analyzed in the case of market mechanism and government macro-control by game evolution theory. A dual coordination mechanism of internal adjustments and external inspiration was proposed for SCS adapt to the environment, and guide the core enterprises to adopt the green supply chain management.
(5) Applied theoretical research conclusions, a preliminary analysis and application to coordinate measures in coal industry SCS was conducted. The issues of the production competitive coordination between the same level coal enterprises, the cooperative coal prices coordinate between upstream and downstream enterprises and SCS evolutive to the green supply chain are analyzed,at last countermeasures are put forward.
引文
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