梯级水库防洪标准研究
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摘要
本文针对目前我国防洪标准规范的不足,探讨了确定梯级水库防洪标准的思路和
方法,通过实例分析和验证,表明文中提出的新方法,对于梯级水库防洪标准的合理
确定具有一定的参考价值。论文取得的主要研究成果如理:
(1) 提出了梯级水库防洪标准合理确定的新思路,分析了国内外防洪标准的特
点和发展趋势,在比较评价的基础上,指出了我国水库防洪标准的不足,为确定梯级
水库防洪标准的研究方法提供有益的借鉴。
(2) 针对梯级水库防洪标准影响因子的多样性利模糊性,防洪标准方案的有限
性和多目标性,建立了基于可能度满意度理论的梯级水库防洪标准评价体系,实例计
算得出积石峡防洪标准定为500年一遇比较合适。
(3) 在防洪标准的确定中,引进风险费用的概念,将水库失事的机会成本与投
资成本一并考虑,建立了以成本最小为目标的梯级水库经济最优模型。结果表明:水
库群防洪标准要相互协调,整体最优。
(4) 提出了基于可接受风险的水库防洪标准研究,建立了水库大坝防洪安全评
估框架。初步解决了水库一定防洪标准下,其大坝防洪风险值定量化的问题,为我国
已建或待建水库的防洪安全探索了一种新的研究方法。
(5) 采用事故树的逻辑分析方法,探讨了水库在漫坝事故下,其防洪风险率的
计算步骤,初步建立了水库大坝防洪标准的风险决策模型。
This paper explored research thoughts and metholds of cascade reservoir's standard for flood water because of the shortcomings of Chinese standard for flood water.These new metholds were shown to be good reference vaule for confiming cascade reservoir's standard for flood water reasonably.The main research results were as follows:(l)The new thoughts of cascade reservoir's standard for flood water were brought forward,the standard at home and abord was analyzed,the disadvantage of our country's standard was pointed out on the base of comparison and evalutation,which provided the research of cascade reservoir's standard for flood water with beneficial use for referenxe.(2)the cascade reservoir's standard for flood water based on the theory of possibility-satisfiability was established as regards of not only the impacted factors' multiplicity and minstiness of cascade reservoir's standard,but also the schemes' finity and multi-object of standard for flood water.The example computation educed Ji Shi canyon water and electricity station's reasonable standard was five hundred years.(3) The concept of risk cost was imported into the confimation of standard for flood water,and the cascade reservoir's economic optimization model on the base of minimal cost by consideration of the reservoir wrecking's opportunity
cost and investment cost.The result showed that the reservoirs' standard were required harmony each other and optimization as a whole.(4)The study of reservoir's standard for flood water on acceptable risk was brought forward,the dam evaluation framework of flood safety was established.The quantity problem of dam risk waule for flood water was so luted elemently under the condtion of definite reservoir's standard, which explored one kind of new research methold for flood safety of our country's reservoir's built or to be built.(5) The computation sequence of reservoir's risk rate for flood water was expored under the condition of overflowing dam accident by means of logic analysis methold and the risk decision-makibg model of reservoir's standard was also wstablished in this paper.
方法,通过实例分析和验证,表明文中提出的新方法,对于梯级水库防洪标准的合理
确定具有一定的参考价值。论文取得的主要研究成果如理:
(1) 提出了梯级水库防洪标准合理确定的新思路,分析了国内外防洪标准的特
点和发展趋势,在比较评价的基础上,指出了我国水库防洪标准的不足,为确定梯级
水库防洪标准的研究方法提供有益的借鉴。
(2) 针对梯级水库防洪标准影响因子的多样性利模糊性,防洪标准方案的有限
性和多目标性,建立了基于可能度满意度理论的梯级水库防洪标准评价体系,实例计
算得出积石峡防洪标准定为500年一遇比较合适。
(3) 在防洪标准的确定中,引进风险费用的概念,将水库失事的机会成本与投
资成本一并考虑,建立了以成本最小为目标的梯级水库经济最优模型。结果表明:水
库群防洪标准要相互协调,整体最优。
(4) 提出了基于可接受风险的水库防洪标准研究,建立了水库大坝防洪安全评
估框架。初步解决了水库一定防洪标准下,其大坝防洪风险值定量化的问题,为我国
已建或待建水库的防洪安全探索了一种新的研究方法。
(5) 采用事故树的逻辑分析方法,探讨了水库在漫坝事故下,其防洪风险率的
计算步骤,初步建立了水库大坝防洪标准的风险决策模型。
This paper explored research thoughts and metholds of cascade reservoir's standard for flood water because of the shortcomings of Chinese standard for flood water.These new metholds were shown to be good reference vaule for confiming cascade reservoir's standard for flood water reasonably.The main research results were as follows:(l)The new thoughts of cascade reservoir's standard for flood water were brought forward,the standard at home and abord was analyzed,the disadvantage of our country's standard was pointed out on the base of comparison and evalutation,which provided the research of cascade reservoir's standard for flood water with beneficial use for referenxe.(2)the cascade reservoir's standard for flood water based on the theory of possibility-satisfiability was established as regards of not only the impacted factors' multiplicity and minstiness of cascade reservoir's standard,but also the schemes' finity and multi-object of standard for flood water.The example computation educed Ji Shi canyon water and electricity station's reasonable standard was five hundred years.(3) The concept of risk cost was imported into the confimation of standard for flood water,and the cascade reservoir's economic optimization model on the base of minimal cost by consideration of the reservoir wrecking's opportunity
cost and investment cost.The result showed that the reservoirs' standard were required harmony each other and optimization as a whole.(4)The study of reservoir's standard for flood water on acceptable risk was brought forward,the dam evaluation framework of flood safety was established.The quantity problem of dam risk waule for flood water was so luted elemently under the condtion of definite reservoir's standard, which explored one kind of new research methold for flood safety of our country's reservoir's built or to be built.(5) The computation sequence of reservoir's risk rate for flood water was expored under the condition of overflowing dam accident by means of logic analysis methold and the risk decision-makibg model of reservoir's standard was also wstablished in this paper.
引文
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[22] 冯尚友.多目标决策理论方法与应用.华中理工大学出版社,1999.
[23] 陈守煜.复杂水资源系统优化模糊模式识别理论与应用.吉林大学出 版社,2002.
[24] 王涣尘.采用可能度和满意度的多目标决策方法.系统工程理论与 实践,1982(1) .
[25] 谷兴荣.科技投资的可能度与满意度测试方法初探.财经理论与实 践,21(107) ,2000:80-82.
[26] 关汉奎.可能满意度与复合满意度在目标决策中的应用.山西财经大 学学报,21(11) ,1999:114-115.
[27] Sakawa M,Yano H.An interactive fuzzy satisficing methold for multiobjective linear programming problems with fuzzy parameters.IFAC proceedings on Large Scale SYSTEMS, 1986(5)
[28] 张斌等.基于可能度满意度的系统目标分解方法.吉林林学院学报,11 (3) ,1995:172-176.
[29] 张德一.智能诊断中可能性分布知识库建模几可能度确定的方法论. 大连海事大学学报,21(4) ,1995:8～13.
[30] 王莲芬,许树伯.层次分析方法引论[M].北京:国防工业出版社,1998.
[31] 周贤林等.基于层次分析法的群体决策.系统工程学报,12(6) ,1994: 30-38.
[32] 陈守煜等.应用模糊决策分析理论确定城市防洪标准研究.水电能源 科学,19(3) ,2001:52～54.
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