基于非线性系统的金沙江攀西河段水系形态及泥石流危害研究
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摘要
论文以“层次分析法”、“粗糙集理论”、“熵权法”及“分形理论”等非线性数学方法为最基本的指导思想,以3S技术和Matlab编程为实现手段,对金沙江流域的泥石流进行详细的解译、特征参数统计和实地考察。通过总结前人的经验和教训重新提出一套全新的方法对泥石流的危险度、活动强度等危险性指标进行评估,并以此为基础从形态学、运动学和能量学的角度对泥石流的危险性指标与其他特征因子之间的关系进行深入的研究。论文首次提出了一种新的组合赋权重方法。首先使用粗糙集理论对层次分析法进行优化,排除了不必要的干扰,从而避免了计算方法引起的数据随机性。进而使用熵权法计算出影响因素的主观权重。利用一个距离函数的新概念来计算权重的分配系数,从而计算出最终的因子权重值。接着提出了一套新的活动强度量化标准,使泥石流活动强度的表达可以更加的形象、具体。得到了泥石流的危险性指标之后又引入分形理论并结合GIS系统对泥石流的三维水系形态参数进行量化处理,以三维水系分形维的形式表达出来。整个计算过程都是由Matlab程序实现的。通过分析泥石流的危险度、活动强度及泥石流特征参数之间的关系,得到一套新的危险度、活动强度判断依据,使用现场调查的重点泥石流沟进行验证,验证的结果证实了上述理论的真实性和实用性。
Debris flow is a kind of very common geological disaster which often happens in mountain area. Its universality is reflected not only on the frequency of occurrence in the debris flow, but also in the geographical distribution of debris flow. Around the world, as long as there are mountainous areas, there are basically more or less debris flow disaster phenomena. In our country, about 66.7% of our land is mountains, complicated geological conditions; relatively sparse vegetation; thick and broken Quaternary cover in the surface; frequent earthquakes in some regions make China become one of the most effected countries by debris flow in the world. Therefore, the research on debris flow has great academic value and practical significance.
In this thesis, "Rough Set Theory", "AHP" and "entropy" are taken as the guiding ideology. The risks of 239 debris flows in Chin-sha River are evaluated through optimal combination of weights of factors. Based on the specification, the activity intensity of debris flow in the study area are quantified. According to the above work, based on fractal theory, the three-dimensional water system morphology of debris flow in the study area is analyzed quantitatively. The relationship between factors including fractal dimension of water system and risk index of debris flow is analyzed. From the kinematics and morphological point of view, the results are deeply discussed which obtained the fowling inclusions.
1. In the study area, there are 35 debris flows belonging to severe risk,187 debris flows belonging to moderate risk,17 debris flows belonging to mild risk. There are 3 debris flows belonging to very strong activity intensity,105 debris flows belonging to strong activity intensity,112 debris flows belonging to relatively strong activity intensity,19 debris flows belonging to weak activity intensity.
2. A new idea of improving AHP by rough set theory is proposed. The comparison matrix of AHP is established using the data extraction ability of rough sets. This new method eliminates undue subjective interference by forming the matrix according to the important degree of factors.
3. The mathematical model of debris flow risk is established by information entropy theory. The infection to the debris flow risk model by factors has been expressed in the most extent because of the good ability to deal with the chaotic system.
4. The concept of distance model is firstly proposed to calculate the distribution index of the optimal combination weighting method which is good at showing the factors'real contribution to the debris flows and excluding unnecessary interference.
5. Through the calculation of the risk of 239 debris flows in the study area, it can be conclude that the results calculated by the new method is basically same as the results calculated by the traditional method which confirm that the new method is scientific and reasonable.
6. The water morphology can be expressed by fractal dimension which is a kind of irregular fractal phenomenon in the nature having its own self-similar interval. Any judgment and analysis must be related to self-similar interval without which the research on water system fractal will lose its significance.
7. The three-dimensional structure of water system is firstly studied based on fractal dimension using Matlab to calculate the water system fractal dimension.
8. According to above re'search, we can see that the development and changes of water system can influence the occurrence of debris flow here very deeply.
9. From the research, it can be seen that as the amount of loose material, length ratio of sediment supply segment and fractal dimension increases, the risk and activity intensity of debris flows increases. It is necessary to study the amount of loose material, length ratio of sediment supply segment and fractal dimension together.
10. The amount of loose material, length ratio of sediment supply segment and fractal dimension interact with each other. It is unreliable to just study some single factor.
Debris flow is a kind of very common geological disaster which often happens in mountain area. Its universality is reflected not only on the frequency of occurrence in the debris flow, but also in the geographical distribution of debris flow. Around the world, as long as there are mountainous areas, there are basically more or less debris flow disaster phenomena. In our country, about 66.7% of our land is mountains, complicated geological conditions; relatively sparse vegetation; thick and broken Quaternary cover in the surface; frequent earthquakes in some regions make China become one of the most effected countries by debris flow in the world. Therefore, the research on debris flow has great academic value and practical significance.
In this thesis, "Rough Set Theory", "AHP" and "entropy" are taken as the guiding ideology. The risks of 239 debris flows in Chin-sha River are evaluated through optimal combination of weights of factors. Based on the specification, the activity intensity of debris flow in the study area are quantified. According to the above work, based on fractal theory, the three-dimensional water system morphology of debris flow in the study area is analyzed quantitatively. The relationship between factors including fractal dimension of water system and risk index of debris flow is analyzed. From the kinematics and morphological point of view, the results are deeply discussed which obtained the fowling inclusions.
1. In the study area, there are 35 debris flows belonging to severe risk,187 debris flows belonging to moderate risk,17 debris flows belonging to mild risk. There are 3 debris flows belonging to very strong activity intensity,105 debris flows belonging to strong activity intensity,112 debris flows belonging to relatively strong activity intensity,19 debris flows belonging to weak activity intensity.
2. A new idea of improving AHP by rough set theory is proposed. The comparison matrix of AHP is established using the data extraction ability of rough sets. This new method eliminates undue subjective interference by forming the matrix according to the important degree of factors.
3. The mathematical model of debris flow risk is established by information entropy theory. The infection to the debris flow risk model by factors has been expressed in the most extent because of the good ability to deal with the chaotic system.
4. The concept of distance model is firstly proposed to calculate the distribution index of the optimal combination weighting method which is good at showing the factors'real contribution to the debris flows and excluding unnecessary interference.
5. Through the calculation of the risk of 239 debris flows in the study area, it can be conclude that the results calculated by the new method is basically same as the results calculated by the traditional method which confirm that the new method is scientific and reasonable.
6. The water morphology can be expressed by fractal dimension which is a kind of irregular fractal phenomenon in the nature having its own self-similar interval. Any judgment and analysis must be related to self-similar interval without which the research on water system fractal will lose its significance.
7. The three-dimensional structure of water system is firstly studied based on fractal dimension using Matlab to calculate the water system fractal dimension.
8. According to above re'search, we can see that the development and changes of water system can influence the occurrence of debris flow here very deeply.
9. From the research, it can be seen that as the amount of loose material, length ratio of sediment supply segment and fractal dimension increases, the risk and activity intensity of debris flows increases. It is necessary to study the amount of loose material, length ratio of sediment supply segment and fractal dimension together.
10. The amount of loose material, length ratio of sediment supply segment and fractal dimension interact with each other. It is unreliable to just study some single factor.
引文
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