大型海港进港主航道通过能力及交通组织模式研究
|
摘要
锚地、航道、泊位构成了港口运行和水路运输的基本要素,港口调度方案及港口水域的安全管理等都是基于上述要素展开,其中进港航道的通过能力(饱和度)直接决定了港口运行的组织管理和港口吞吐量的提升。对航道通过能力的研究,一是对航道通过能力现状的研究分析(即饱和度的评价),从而确定航道是否需要扩建或采取相应的管理措施、优化调度方案来提高航道的通过能力;另一方面是结合港口吞吐量的发展,预测港口水域的船舶交通流,预测未来航道要达到的通过水平,从而为航道的未来规划及建设方案提供决策依据。
随着水路运量的不断上升及船舶向大型化、高速化、专业化方向的发展,航道通过能力愈加明显地受到水深条件、航道走向、锚地条件、泊位条件等诸多因素的制约,从而出现大量的船舶压港、滞港现象。如天津港拥有我国最长的人工航道,进港主航道通过能力受到航道水深、航道宽度等因素限制,在港口调度时必须对大型船舶实行单向通航或候潮进港,这样就严重制约了港口的发展,因此,有关港口航道通过能力的研究近年来越来越受到了国内外相关工程人员、设计人员和研究人员的关注,目前从国内外的相关研究状况来看,关于进港主航道通过能力的研究处于起步阶段,大多数研究都是以非港口航道为研究对象,把航道作为通道式水道进行研究,而且主要从航道的一般属性(即航道长度、航道宽度以及航道水深等)和通航船舶的一般属性(航速、船舶尺度及船舶等级等)来考察航道的通过能力,主要研究的是航道静态通过能力,没有考虑到进港航道通过能力除受到航道属性和船舶属性的影响外,还要受到锚地、泊位及船舶到港规律、港口运行管理形式等因素对进港航道通过能力的影响,因此,对进港主航道通过能力的研究,主要是要反映航道在港航系统中的动态特性,一方面要体现航道的属性和服务水平,更重要的是要反映港航系统的特征、船舶的到港规律和船舶行为及港口交通流组织形式。
本论文的研究目标是从系统的观点出发,在研究港口水域船舶交通流模式和进港航道特征的基础上,充分分析和考虑港口水域进港主航道通过能力的多约束条件和船舶行为特征,对以往航道通过能力静态计算模型(船舶领域模型)进行修正,构建基于港口航道多约束条件和船舶行为特征的进港航道通过能力的一般静态计算模型;并通过对船舶到港历史数据的统计,寻找船舶的到港规律,在此基础上运用排队论的思想建立进港航道通过能力动态计算模型,并通过计算机建模,对港口水域进港主航道的通过能力和港口水域船舶交通流进行仿真验证和预测,从而研究和确定与进港航道通过能力及航道服务水平相适应的船舶进出港交通组织模式。
论文的主要研究工作包括:
(1)对大型海港主航道通过能力和通航能力作出了明确的定义和清晰的阐述,同时论述了航道通过能力与港航系统的关系,以及航道通过能力的影响因素,并对相关成果进行了比较分析,指出了现有计算模型和计算方法存在的不足。
(2)结合港口特征、船舶行为特征以及港口水域船舶交通流的历史相关数据,针对CSFM预测方法中权重不变的问题,建立了一类改进的变权组合预测模型,较好地解决了现有船舶交通流预测算法中存在的预测精度不高,依赖于经验的不足。
(3)对国内外有关船舶通过能力的理论及计算方法进行了论证分析,在分析港口进港航道船舶交通流特征的基础上,以船舶领域理论为基础,引入船舶航行领域、船舶穿越领域、船舶汇入领域等概率,充分考虑了不同船舶会遇模式下的船舶领域模型修正方法,并以此为基础提出了考虑多源汇入汇出条件下港口进港航道通过能力的一般计算模型。
(4)运用排队思想,构建了基于船舶到港规律和船舶行为特征的主航道通过能力动态计算模型,并运用天津港的实例进行验证分析。
(5)在上述研究的基础上,利用计算机及系统工程理论、运筹学、数理统计等学科的基础理论,开发了相关模拟软件,对大型海港主航道的通过能力进行了仿真模拟和预测。
(6)提出针对不同航道通过能力的进港主航道交通组织模式,同时,在研究以交通组织模式优化为手段来提高主航道通过能力时,本文引入了航道服务水平的概念。
本文的主要创新点有:
(1)构建了基于港航特征和船舶行为特征的大型海港主航道船舶交通流宏观预测组合模型;
(2)对目前国内外有关航道通过能力的计算模型和方法进行了论证分析,指出了存在的不足,并构建了充分考虑不同船舶会遇模式下的基于船舶领域的主航道通过能力一般静态计算模型和计算方法;
(3)运用排队理论,构建了基于船舶到港规律和船舶行为特征的主航道通过能力动态计算模型;
(4)构建了基于进港航道通过能力(航道服务水平)的天津港复式航道交通流组织模式。
本论文的研究工作是交通运输学科的前沿领域,也是广大学者研究的热点和难点问题,其研究成果的应用不仅能为港口水域进出港航道的规划和设计提供提供技术支撑和科学依据,而且对保证港口生产作业的安全、提高港口资源的综合利用率、保障港口水域具有良好的通航环境和通航秩序、保持港口水域的通航安全、推动港口的可持续发展具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。
Anchorage, fairway and berth are the basic elements of port operation and water transport. On the basis of these elements, port scheduling scheme and safety management of port waters are put forward to. The entry fairway capacity (saturation) directly determines the organizational management of the port operation and the increase in the throughput of the port. The study of fairway capacity could be divided into two stages: firstly, study and analyze the current situation of the fairway capacity or evaluate the saturation in order to determine whether the fairway should be extended or it is necessary to take relevant management measures and optimize the scheduling scheme to improve the fairway capacity; secondly, according to the development of the port throughput, predict the ship traffic flow in port waters and the future fairway capacity so as to provide the support for the decision-making on future planning and construction scheme.
Due to the development of larger, high-speed and specialized ships as well as the increasing water traffic volume, fairway capacity is influenced more obviously by the water depth, fairway direction, anchorage conditions and berth conditions, etc. Consequently, it results in much fairway congestion. Tianjin Port has the longest artificial fairway in China. Because its entry fairway capacity is constrained by its depth and width, lager ships are required to enter the port in one-way navigation or with appropriate tide. This has seriously hampered the development of the port. In recent years, the study on entry fairway capacity has been a concern of the relevant engineers, designers and researchers at home and abroad, however it is still rare. The majority of the studies regard non-port fairway as their object and fairway as a waterway in form of tunnel. Moreover, it is mainly from the general property of the fairway (length, width and depth, etc.) and the general attributes of ships navigating (speed, size and ship type, etc.) to study the fairway capacity, especially the static fairway capacity without consideration to the influence of the anchorage, berth, rule of ship arrival, port operation and management. So, it is suggested that the study on entry fairway capacity should focus on reflecting the dynamic nature of the port system as well as the fairway property and its service level, more importantly reflecting the characteristics of port system, rule of ship arrival, ship behavior and the form of port traffic organization.
This dissertation aims at, from the system point of view, on the basis of studying the traffic flow patterns and fairway characteristics, with the fully analysis and consideration to the multi-constrained conditions of fairway capacity and ship behavior characteristics in port waters, revising the existing static calculation model (ship domain model) for fairway capacity, constructing the general static calculation model, establishing the dynamic calculation model for entry fairway capacity with the use of queuing theory according to statistics of historical data of ship arrival. In addition, make the simulation, verification and forecasting for entry fairway capacity and vessel traffic flow in port waters through computer modeling in order to study and identify the modes of traffic organization, which are suitable for the fairway capacity and its service level.
The main research work of this dissertation includes:
(1) This paper makes a clear definition and boundary for the main fairway capacity of large harbor and its navigation ability, discusses the relationship between fairway traffic capacity and the port system and the influential factors of fairway traffic capacity, does a comparative analysis on the related outcomes and points out the deficiency of the existing calculation models and methods.
(2) According to the port characteristics, the behavioral characteristics of ships and the historical data of the ship traffic flow in the port waters, aiming at the problem of unchanged weight in the CSFM prediction methods, this paper builds up a serial of revised variable weight combined forecasting models, which are a better solution to the drawbacks of poor accuracy and dependence on the experience in the existing vessel traffic flow prediction algorithm.
(3) This paper makes an argument and analysis on the theory and calculation methods of traffic capacity both at home and abroad, introduces some definitions about the domain of ship navigating, crossing and converging, on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of traffic flow in the entry fairway, fully takes into account the amended methods of the ship domain models in different modes of ship encountering and puts forward to the general calculation model for entry fairway capacity in multi-source converging conditions.
(4) This paper establishes the dynamic calculation model for entry fairway capacity with the use of queuing theory according to the rule of ship arrival and the characteristics ship behavior, which has been verified and analyzed by the example of Tianjin Port.
(5) On the basis of the above-mentioned studies, this paper takes the use of the basic academic theory of computer and system engineering, operations research, mathematical statistics and so on to develop the related simulation software in order to simulate and predict the fairway traffic capacity of large harbor.
(6) This paper puts forward to the traffic organization modes of entry fairway according to different fairway traffic capacity and introduces the concept of fairway service level for the purpose of studying how to improve the fairway traffic capacity through optimizing the traffic organization modes.
The main innovations in this dissertation are as follows:
(1) To build up a macro combined forecasting model for vessel traffic flow in the fairway of large harbor, based on the characteristics of the port and the ship behavior.
(2) To discuss and analyze the theory and calculation methods of traffic capacity both at home and abroad, construct the general static calculation model and method based on the ship domain theory with full consideration to different modes of ship encountering.
(3) To establish the dynamic calculation model for entry fairway capacity with the use of queuing theory according to the rule of ship arrival and the characteristics ship behavior.
(4) To built up the traffic flow organization model of the duplex-fairway in Tianjin Port based on the fairway traffic capacity (its service level) .
Research work of this dissertation is at the forefront of transportation science and is also a hot point and a difficult problem, which many scholars are doing research on. The results of the research in this paper fill the gap in the national community and are at the forefront of the field. The application of research results can not only provide the technical support for the decision-making on future planning and design of entry fairway but also have the important theoretical value and practical significance for ensuring the safety of port operation, improving the comprehensive utilization of port resources, protecting a good navigation environment and order in port waters, maintaining the navigation safety in port waters and promoting the port sustainable development.
随着水路运量的不断上升及船舶向大型化、高速化、专业化方向的发展,航道通过能力愈加明显地受到水深条件、航道走向、锚地条件、泊位条件等诸多因素的制约,从而出现大量的船舶压港、滞港现象。如天津港拥有我国最长的人工航道,进港主航道通过能力受到航道水深、航道宽度等因素限制,在港口调度时必须对大型船舶实行单向通航或候潮进港,这样就严重制约了港口的发展,因此,有关港口航道通过能力的研究近年来越来越受到了国内外相关工程人员、设计人员和研究人员的关注,目前从国内外的相关研究状况来看,关于进港主航道通过能力的研究处于起步阶段,大多数研究都是以非港口航道为研究对象,把航道作为通道式水道进行研究,而且主要从航道的一般属性(即航道长度、航道宽度以及航道水深等)和通航船舶的一般属性(航速、船舶尺度及船舶等级等)来考察航道的通过能力,主要研究的是航道静态通过能力,没有考虑到进港航道通过能力除受到航道属性和船舶属性的影响外,还要受到锚地、泊位及船舶到港规律、港口运行管理形式等因素对进港航道通过能力的影响,因此,对进港主航道通过能力的研究,主要是要反映航道在港航系统中的动态特性,一方面要体现航道的属性和服务水平,更重要的是要反映港航系统的特征、船舶的到港规律和船舶行为及港口交通流组织形式。
本论文的研究目标是从系统的观点出发,在研究港口水域船舶交通流模式和进港航道特征的基础上,充分分析和考虑港口水域进港主航道通过能力的多约束条件和船舶行为特征,对以往航道通过能力静态计算模型(船舶领域模型)进行修正,构建基于港口航道多约束条件和船舶行为特征的进港航道通过能力的一般静态计算模型;并通过对船舶到港历史数据的统计,寻找船舶的到港规律,在此基础上运用排队论的思想建立进港航道通过能力动态计算模型,并通过计算机建模,对港口水域进港主航道的通过能力和港口水域船舶交通流进行仿真验证和预测,从而研究和确定与进港航道通过能力及航道服务水平相适应的船舶进出港交通组织模式。
论文的主要研究工作包括:
(1)对大型海港主航道通过能力和通航能力作出了明确的定义和清晰的阐述,同时论述了航道通过能力与港航系统的关系,以及航道通过能力的影响因素,并对相关成果进行了比较分析,指出了现有计算模型和计算方法存在的不足。
(2)结合港口特征、船舶行为特征以及港口水域船舶交通流的历史相关数据,针对CSFM预测方法中权重不变的问题,建立了一类改进的变权组合预测模型,较好地解决了现有船舶交通流预测算法中存在的预测精度不高,依赖于经验的不足。
(3)对国内外有关船舶通过能力的理论及计算方法进行了论证分析,在分析港口进港航道船舶交通流特征的基础上,以船舶领域理论为基础,引入船舶航行领域、船舶穿越领域、船舶汇入领域等概率,充分考虑了不同船舶会遇模式下的船舶领域模型修正方法,并以此为基础提出了考虑多源汇入汇出条件下港口进港航道通过能力的一般计算模型。
(4)运用排队思想,构建了基于船舶到港规律和船舶行为特征的主航道通过能力动态计算模型,并运用天津港的实例进行验证分析。
(5)在上述研究的基础上,利用计算机及系统工程理论、运筹学、数理统计等学科的基础理论,开发了相关模拟软件,对大型海港主航道的通过能力进行了仿真模拟和预测。
(6)提出针对不同航道通过能力的进港主航道交通组织模式,同时,在研究以交通组织模式优化为手段来提高主航道通过能力时,本文引入了航道服务水平的概念。
本文的主要创新点有:
(1)构建了基于港航特征和船舶行为特征的大型海港主航道船舶交通流宏观预测组合模型;
(2)对目前国内外有关航道通过能力的计算模型和方法进行了论证分析,指出了存在的不足,并构建了充分考虑不同船舶会遇模式下的基于船舶领域的主航道通过能力一般静态计算模型和计算方法;
(3)运用排队理论,构建了基于船舶到港规律和船舶行为特征的主航道通过能力动态计算模型;
(4)构建了基于进港航道通过能力(航道服务水平)的天津港复式航道交通流组织模式。
本论文的研究工作是交通运输学科的前沿领域,也是广大学者研究的热点和难点问题,其研究成果的应用不仅能为港口水域进出港航道的规划和设计提供提供技术支撑和科学依据,而且对保证港口生产作业的安全、提高港口资源的综合利用率、保障港口水域具有良好的通航环境和通航秩序、保持港口水域的通航安全、推动港口的可持续发展具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。
Anchorage, fairway and berth are the basic elements of port operation and water transport. On the basis of these elements, port scheduling scheme and safety management of port waters are put forward to. The entry fairway capacity (saturation) directly determines the organizational management of the port operation and the increase in the throughput of the port. The study of fairway capacity could be divided into two stages: firstly, study and analyze the current situation of the fairway capacity or evaluate the saturation in order to determine whether the fairway should be extended or it is necessary to take relevant management measures and optimize the scheduling scheme to improve the fairway capacity; secondly, according to the development of the port throughput, predict the ship traffic flow in port waters and the future fairway capacity so as to provide the support for the decision-making on future planning and construction scheme.
Due to the development of larger, high-speed and specialized ships as well as the increasing water traffic volume, fairway capacity is influenced more obviously by the water depth, fairway direction, anchorage conditions and berth conditions, etc. Consequently, it results in much fairway congestion. Tianjin Port has the longest artificial fairway in China. Because its entry fairway capacity is constrained by its depth and width, lager ships are required to enter the port in one-way navigation or with appropriate tide. This has seriously hampered the development of the port. In recent years, the study on entry fairway capacity has been a concern of the relevant engineers, designers and researchers at home and abroad, however it is still rare. The majority of the studies regard non-port fairway as their object and fairway as a waterway in form of tunnel. Moreover, it is mainly from the general property of the fairway (length, width and depth, etc.) and the general attributes of ships navigating (speed, size and ship type, etc.) to study the fairway capacity, especially the static fairway capacity without consideration to the influence of the anchorage, berth, rule of ship arrival, port operation and management. So, it is suggested that the study on entry fairway capacity should focus on reflecting the dynamic nature of the port system as well as the fairway property and its service level, more importantly reflecting the characteristics of port system, rule of ship arrival, ship behavior and the form of port traffic organization.
This dissertation aims at, from the system point of view, on the basis of studying the traffic flow patterns and fairway characteristics, with the fully analysis and consideration to the multi-constrained conditions of fairway capacity and ship behavior characteristics in port waters, revising the existing static calculation model (ship domain model) for fairway capacity, constructing the general static calculation model, establishing the dynamic calculation model for entry fairway capacity with the use of queuing theory according to statistics of historical data of ship arrival. In addition, make the simulation, verification and forecasting for entry fairway capacity and vessel traffic flow in port waters through computer modeling in order to study and identify the modes of traffic organization, which are suitable for the fairway capacity and its service level.
The main research work of this dissertation includes:
(1) This paper makes a clear definition and boundary for the main fairway capacity of large harbor and its navigation ability, discusses the relationship between fairway traffic capacity and the port system and the influential factors of fairway traffic capacity, does a comparative analysis on the related outcomes and points out the deficiency of the existing calculation models and methods.
(2) According to the port characteristics, the behavioral characteristics of ships and the historical data of the ship traffic flow in the port waters, aiming at the problem of unchanged weight in the CSFM prediction methods, this paper builds up a serial of revised variable weight combined forecasting models, which are a better solution to the drawbacks of poor accuracy and dependence on the experience in the existing vessel traffic flow prediction algorithm.
(3) This paper makes an argument and analysis on the theory and calculation methods of traffic capacity both at home and abroad, introduces some definitions about the domain of ship navigating, crossing and converging, on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of traffic flow in the entry fairway, fully takes into account the amended methods of the ship domain models in different modes of ship encountering and puts forward to the general calculation model for entry fairway capacity in multi-source converging conditions.
(4) This paper establishes the dynamic calculation model for entry fairway capacity with the use of queuing theory according to the rule of ship arrival and the characteristics ship behavior, which has been verified and analyzed by the example of Tianjin Port.
(5) On the basis of the above-mentioned studies, this paper takes the use of the basic academic theory of computer and system engineering, operations research, mathematical statistics and so on to develop the related simulation software in order to simulate and predict the fairway traffic capacity of large harbor.
(6) This paper puts forward to the traffic organization modes of entry fairway according to different fairway traffic capacity and introduces the concept of fairway service level for the purpose of studying how to improve the fairway traffic capacity through optimizing the traffic organization modes.
The main innovations in this dissertation are as follows:
(1) To build up a macro combined forecasting model for vessel traffic flow in the fairway of large harbor, based on the characteristics of the port and the ship behavior.
(2) To discuss and analyze the theory and calculation methods of traffic capacity both at home and abroad, construct the general static calculation model and method based on the ship domain theory with full consideration to different modes of ship encountering.
(3) To establish the dynamic calculation model for entry fairway capacity with the use of queuing theory according to the rule of ship arrival and the characteristics ship behavior.
(4) To built up the traffic flow organization model of the duplex-fairway in Tianjin Port based on the fairway traffic capacity (its service level) .
Research work of this dissertation is at the forefront of transportation science and is also a hot point and a difficult problem, which many scholars are doing research on. The results of the research in this paper fill the gap in the national community and are at the forefront of the field. The application of research results can not only provide the technical support for the decision-making on future planning and design of entry fairway but also have the important theoretical value and practical significance for ensuring the safety of port operation, improving the comprehensive utilization of port resources, protecting a good navigation environment and order in port waters, maintaining the navigation safety in port waters and promoting the port sustainable development.
引文
[1]石井一郎,《交通运输学概论》,北京:人民交通出版社,1983
[2]渡边修三等,《交通工程》,北京:人民交通出版社,1983
[3]D.lGerlough等,《交通流理论》,北京:人民交通出版社,1983
[4]贾欣乐,杨盐生,《船舶运动数学模型-机理建模与辨识建模》,大连海事大学出版社,1999
[5]长江航道局.航道工程手册.北京:人民交通出版社,2005.
[6]吴兆麟,朱军.海上交通工程[M].大连:大连海事大学出版社,2004.
[7]卞艺杰.航道通过能力研究.《水运工程》,2000,第8期:27-30.
[8]吴兆麟.《海上交通与交通安全研究》.大连:大连海事大学出版社,2001.394-407.
[9]高士晔.《海上交通安全管理》.北京:人民交通出版社,1986.
[10]邱民.船舶交通工程学[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1992.
[11]董宇.航道通过能力及服务水平研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[12]廖鹏.船闸通过能力研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[13]万长征.桥区航道船舶通过能力研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2008.
[14]任福田译.道路通航能力手册(美1985年版)[M].北京:建筑工业出版社,1986.
[15]陈玉祥,章汉压.预测技术与应用[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1985.
[16]杨翔.船舶交通流量预测方法研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2006.
[17]陈友华.组合预测方法有效性理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[18]冯文权,茅奇,周毓萍.经济预测与决策技术[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2002.
[19]张杏古.回归分析方法在VTS预测研究中的应用[J].中国航海,1996,2:32-35.
[20]邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002.
[21]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.
[22]朱报春.基于模糊逻辑系统的组合预测方法及应用[D].南京:河海大学,2001.
[23]谢金星,薛毅.优化建模与LINDO/LINGO软件[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.
[24]楼顺天,陈生潭,雷虎民,等.MATLAB 5.X程序设计语言[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2000.
[25]徐杏,石喜军.深圳港基于BP神经网络集装箱预测模型[J].河海大学学报,2002,30(4):41-44
[26]魏艳强.基于RBF神经网络的货运量预测模型研究[D].天津:天津理工大学,2007.
[27]吕靖,方祥麟.船舶交通量的组合系统预测模型与方法[J].大连海事大学学报,1996,22(2):33-35.
[28]黄洪琼,汤天浩,金永兴,等.基于智能融合的船舶交通流预测系统[J].中国航海,2008,31(4):364-367.
[29]王永光,赵国浩.变权组合预测模型在中国煤炭需求预测中的应用[A].2007
[30]中国可持续发展论坛暨中国可持续发展学术年会论文集(4)[C],2007.
[31]谢开贵,周家启.变权组合预测模型研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,7:36-40.
[32]王宏达.内河航道通过量估算[J].水运工程,1998(9):4-6.
[33]刘绍满.内河船舶拥挤水域通过能力的研究[D].大连:大连海事大学.2006.
[34]余劲,张玮,姜继红,廖鹏等.西江航道船舶流的概率分布特性[J],交通运输工程学报,2006.6(2):90
[35]胡永宏,贺思辉,综合评价方法,科学出版社.,2000.11
[36]刘明俊,航道与引航,北京:人民交通出版社,1999.10:165-178,374-377
[37]郝勇,海事管理学,武汉:武汉理工大学出版社,2007年2月。
[38]古文贤,船舶运输安全学,大连:大连海事大学出版社,1992年.
[39]程昌华,航道工程学,北京:人民交通出版社,2001年.
[40]国际海事组织,船舶定线制的一般规定,伦敦:国际海事组织,1985年.
[41]朱军,水上交通规则,大连:大连海事大学内部讲义,1992年.
[42]国际海事组织,1972年国际海上避碰规则,伦敦:国际海事组织,1972
[43]司玉琢,船舶碰撞法,大连:大连海事大学出版社,1991年
[44]中交水运规划设计院,第一航务工程勘察设计院,海港总平面设计规范(修订版),2008年3月
[45]古文贤,船舶操纵,大连:大连海事大学出版社,1993年.
[46]交通部第一航务工程勘察设计院,海港水文规范(JTJ213-98),北京:人民交通出版社,2004年.
[47]交通部第一航务工程勘察设计院,天津港航道拓宽工程预可行性研究,天津:交通部第一航务工程勘察设计院,2008年5月。
[48]水运工程科学研究所,天津港25万吨级航道泥沙淤积研究,天津:交通部天津水运工程科学研究所,2008年.
[49]杨赞,武力平,船舶交通调查与分析,大连:大连海事大学内部讲义,1994
[50]齐传新,内河船舶运输安全学,大连:大连海事大学出版社,1991年.
[51]谢式千等.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000,8.
[52]马振华.现代应用数学手册--概率统计与随机过程卷[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2000
[53]徐光辉.随机服务系统[M].北京:科学出版社,1980
[54]同济大学数学研究室,概率论.北京:高等教育出版社,1984年
[55]贾欣乐,杨盐生,船舶运动数学模型,大连:大连海事大学出版社,1999
[56]陈永奎,斜流效应的分析计算,北京:长江科学院院报,1996年第3期
[57]文岑,陈桂馥,船舶航行数值模拟.重庆:重庆交通学院学报,2000,19(4):102-106.
[58]乐美龙,陆惠生,汪希龄,倪学义,船舶操纵仿真研究.上海海运院船舶操纵模拟器论文专辑1997,8
[59]吴秀恒,船舶操纵性与耐波性,北京:人民交通出版社,1999
[60]张锡海.曹妃甸港及其附近水域航路优化的研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2007.
[61]刘敬贤,李云斌.天津港主航道船舶到达规律的统计分析[J].《武汉理工大学学报》.2008,32(2):351-353.
[62]刘敬贤,韩晓宝.基于排队论的受限航道通过能力计算[J].中国航海.2008,31(3):261-264
[63]刘敬贤,韩晓宝.渤海海峡船舶流的调查与分析[J].船海工程2008,37(4):95-98.
[64]刘敬贤,韩晓宝.渤海海峡海域的船舶定线制完善研究[J].航海技术2008,5:2-7
[65]齐东海.港口工程系统分析方法[M].人民交通出版社,1991.
[66]彭晓源.系统仿真技术[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,2006.
[67]罗荣桂.排队模型及其应用[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[68]唐应辉,唐小我.排队论.排队基础与分析技术[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[69]黄晓鸣,徐小义.排队论在港口规划设计中的应用[J].青岛大学学报(工程技术版).1996,11(3):59-62.
[70]李忠范,高文森.数理统计与随机过程.吉林:吉林大学出版社,2000
[71]鲁子爱.排队论在港口规划中的应用[J].水运工程,1997(8):11-15.
[72]于志青.排队论在交通工程中的应用研究[J].中州大学学报,2005,22(1):118-119.
[73]张智勇,荣建,郑弘.基于M/G/K排队模型的北京地区高速公路收费站通行能力的研究[J].公路,2001,46(7):128-133.
[74]王震远.城市道路环形交叉口车辆排队及行车延误研究[J].北京建筑工程学院学报,2004,20(3):54-58.
[75]田野.航道通过能力的研究与评定[D].大连海事大学,2002
[76]鲁子爱.港口服务系统仿真与港口规模优化研究:(博士学位论文).南京:河海大学,2001.
[77]Bigosinski,J.Nigerian port study:traffic studies and projections.MIT Center for Transportation Studies,Report 79-1,1979.
[78]Bobrovitch,D.Decentralized planning and competition in a national multi-port system.Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 14,1,31-42(1982)
[79]Gleave,G.R.A port traffic allocation model.The Dock & Harbour Authority,374-376(1981)
[80]Jansson,J.O.Shneerson,D.Port economics.MIT Press,Cambridge,Mass.1982
[81]Marti,B.E.Shift-share analysis and port geography:a New England example.Maritime Policy and Management 9,4,241-250(1982)
[82]Shneerson,D.Short term planning for a port system.Maritime Policy and Management 10,4,217-250(1983)
[83]Shneerson,D.Investment in port systems:a case of the Nigerian ports.Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 15,3,201-216(1981)
[84]Wilson,J.D.Optimal road capacity in the presence of unpriced congestion.Journal of Urban Economics 13,1,337-357(1983)
[85]W.David Kelton.Simulation with Arena.Mc Graw-Hill Professional,2004.
[86]Wadhwa,1990.Wadhwa,L.C.(1990).Capacity and performance of bulk handling ports.Proceedings of Australasian Transport Research Forum Vol.15),Part 1
[87]Warwar,1980.P.Warwar,Port capacity methodology.Ports(1980),p.80.
[88]Transportation Research Board,Highway Capacity Manual 2000,National Research Council,Washington,D.C.,2000.
[89]Transportation Research Board,Highway Capacity Manual,National Research Council,Washington,D.C.,1965.
[90]Transportation Research Board,Highway Capacity Manual,TRB Special Report No209,Washington,D.C.,Revised 1997
[91]Eelco Van Asperen,Modeling ship arrivals in ports,Proceedings of the 2003 Winter Simulation Conference,IEEE.2003
[92]Shabayek.A.A.Yeung W.W.,A Simulation Model of the Kwai Chung Container Terminal in Hong Kong.European Journal of Operational Research,2002(1)
[93]KESHAV DAHAL.A Port System Simulation Facility with an Optimization Capability.International Journal of Computational Intelligence and Applications.2003,4(3):395-410.
[94]Turner,H.S.Evaluating Seaport Policy Alternatives:A Simulation Study of Terminal Leasing Policy and System Performance.Maritime Policy and Management,2000,27(3):283-301
[95]Bruzzone A.G, Mosca R.Revetria R., Rapallo S.Risk Analysis in Harbor Environment Using Simulation Safety Science, 2000 (1)
[96]W.David Kelton.Simulation Modeling and Analysis.McGraw-Hill Higher Education, 1997.
[97]W.David Kelton, et al.Simulation with Arena.The Mc Graw-Hill Companies, U.S.A, 1998.
[98]PIANC.Overview of simulation techniques, capability ship maneuvering simulation models for approach channels and fairway in harbours, 336-345,1992.
[99]Radmilovich, Z.R.Radmilovich, Ship-berth link as bulk queuing system in ports.Journal of Waterway, Port Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 323-335, 1992.
[100]Kia, 1999.Kia, M..An integrated port and rail network using optimally located distribution centers.Proceedings of Coasts and Ports '99, 14-16 April 1999, Perth,Australia.1999
[101]Pridgeon A.W.Computer Simulation for Effective Port Planning.National Ccnference Publication.Institutuion of Engineerings, 1992
[102]Michael P.Computer Simulation in Management Science.New York: John Wikey & Sons, 1992
[103]P.V Davis.A Computer Simulation of Multi-Ships Encounters.Journal of Navigation, 1989
[104]T.G.Goldwell.Marine Traffic Behaviour in Restricted Waters.Journal of Navigation,Vol.36, 1983
[105]GOOD WIN E M.A Statistical Study of Ship Domains[J]Journal of Navigation, 1975.28(3) :328-344
[106]Fujii, Y.Some factors Affecting the Frequency of Accidents in Marine Traffic[J].Journal of Navigation, 1974,27 (2) : 235-252
[107]DNV.DNV Standard for Certification of Maritime Simulator Systems (NEW) [R].1999
[108]Kelly A D, Malin M C, Nielson C M.Terrain simulation using a mode of stream erosion [J].computerGraphics, 1988,22 (4) :263-268
[109]Chiba N, Muraoka K, Yaegashi K, et al.Terrain simulation based on the recursive refinement of ridge-line[J].Proc of the Second Int Conf on Computer-Aided Design and ComputerGraphics, 1991, 1: 19-24
[110]Hwang, C.N., "A Variation Approach to H2 and H∞ Control Problems for Linear Nonautonomous Systems," Proc.Natl.Sci.Counc.ROC (A) Vol.19,No.5,pp.408-422 1995
[111]King, P.J.and Monolanj, E.H., "Recent Technological Advances in the Control and Guidance of Ships," The Journal of Navigation, Vol.47, No.2, PP.236-241 (1994) .
[112]Chen, S.T, "The Control Design for Linear Time-Varying System and It's Applications On Ships" M.S.Thesis Published at National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan, R.O.C.(1994) .
[113]Hayuth Y.Building a port simulator.Simulation, 1994,63 (3) : 179-189.
[114]Kozan E.Comparison of Analytical and Simulation Planning Models for Seaport Container Terminals.Transp.Plan.Technol.1997,20 (3) : 235-248.
[115]W.GP.Lamb.The Calculation of Marine Collision Risks.Journal of Navigation, 1989
[116]P.V Davis.A Computer Simulation of Multi-Ships Encounters.Journal of Navigation, 1989
[117]Arup Traffic Study for the Port of Melbourne, surveyed by Arup Transportation Planning Group for the Port of Melbourne Authority, 401-^16,1990
[118]Fararoui.F.Fararoui.Queuing theory and berthing optimization.PhD Thesis Priority Berthing in Congested Ports, 23-32, 1989
[119]Frankel, E.G Frankel, Terminal capacity.Port Planning and Development, 56-65, 1987
[120]Frankel, E.G Frankel, Terminal capacity, port planning and development, 112-123, 1987.
[121]LIU Jingxian, ZHANG Di.Grid-Based Collision Risk Assessment Model Study on Navigable Waters.ICIST2007 PROCEEDINGS, ISBN 978-90-9022202-8, 173-180
[2]渡边修三等,《交通工程》,北京:人民交通出版社,1983
[3]D.lGerlough等,《交通流理论》,北京:人民交通出版社,1983
[4]贾欣乐,杨盐生,《船舶运动数学模型-机理建模与辨识建模》,大连海事大学出版社,1999
[5]长江航道局.航道工程手册.北京:人民交通出版社,2005.
[6]吴兆麟,朱军.海上交通工程[M].大连:大连海事大学出版社,2004.
[7]卞艺杰.航道通过能力研究.《水运工程》,2000,第8期:27-30.
[8]吴兆麟.《海上交通与交通安全研究》.大连:大连海事大学出版社,2001.394-407.
[9]高士晔.《海上交通安全管理》.北京:人民交通出版社,1986.
[10]邱民.船舶交通工程学[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1992.
[11]董宇.航道通过能力及服务水平研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[12]廖鹏.船闸通过能力研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[13]万长征.桥区航道船舶通过能力研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2008.
[14]任福田译.道路通航能力手册(美1985年版)[M].北京:建筑工业出版社,1986.
[15]陈玉祥,章汉压.预测技术与应用[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1985.
[16]杨翔.船舶交通流量预测方法研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2006.
[17]陈友华.组合预测方法有效性理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[18]冯文权,茅奇,周毓萍.经济预测与决策技术[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2002.
[19]张杏古.回归分析方法在VTS预测研究中的应用[J].中国航海,1996,2:32-35.
[20]邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002.
[21]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.
[22]朱报春.基于模糊逻辑系统的组合预测方法及应用[D].南京:河海大学,2001.
[23]谢金星,薛毅.优化建模与LINDO/LINGO软件[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.
[24]楼顺天,陈生潭,雷虎民,等.MATLAB 5.X程序设计语言[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2000.
[25]徐杏,石喜军.深圳港基于BP神经网络集装箱预测模型[J].河海大学学报,2002,30(4):41-44
[26]魏艳强.基于RBF神经网络的货运量预测模型研究[D].天津:天津理工大学,2007.
[27]吕靖,方祥麟.船舶交通量的组合系统预测模型与方法[J].大连海事大学学报,1996,22(2):33-35.
[28]黄洪琼,汤天浩,金永兴,等.基于智能融合的船舶交通流预测系统[J].中国航海,2008,31(4):364-367.
[29]王永光,赵国浩.变权组合预测模型在中国煤炭需求预测中的应用[A].2007
[30]中国可持续发展论坛暨中国可持续发展学术年会论文集(4)[C],2007.
[31]谢开贵,周家启.变权组合预测模型研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,7:36-40.
[32]王宏达.内河航道通过量估算[J].水运工程,1998(9):4-6.
[33]刘绍满.内河船舶拥挤水域通过能力的研究[D].大连:大连海事大学.2006.
[34]余劲,张玮,姜继红,廖鹏等.西江航道船舶流的概率分布特性[J],交通运输工程学报,2006.6(2):90
[35]胡永宏,贺思辉,综合评价方法,科学出版社.,2000.11
[36]刘明俊,航道与引航,北京:人民交通出版社,1999.10:165-178,374-377
[37]郝勇,海事管理学,武汉:武汉理工大学出版社,2007年2月。
[38]古文贤,船舶运输安全学,大连:大连海事大学出版社,1992年.
[39]程昌华,航道工程学,北京:人民交通出版社,2001年.
[40]国际海事组织,船舶定线制的一般规定,伦敦:国际海事组织,1985年.
[41]朱军,水上交通规则,大连:大连海事大学内部讲义,1992年.
[42]国际海事组织,1972年国际海上避碰规则,伦敦:国际海事组织,1972
[43]司玉琢,船舶碰撞法,大连:大连海事大学出版社,1991年
[44]中交水运规划设计院,第一航务工程勘察设计院,海港总平面设计规范(修订版),2008年3月
[45]古文贤,船舶操纵,大连:大连海事大学出版社,1993年.
[46]交通部第一航务工程勘察设计院,海港水文规范(JTJ213-98),北京:人民交通出版社,2004年.
[47]交通部第一航务工程勘察设计院,天津港航道拓宽工程预可行性研究,天津:交通部第一航务工程勘察设计院,2008年5月。
[48]水运工程科学研究所,天津港25万吨级航道泥沙淤积研究,天津:交通部天津水运工程科学研究所,2008年.
[49]杨赞,武力平,船舶交通调查与分析,大连:大连海事大学内部讲义,1994
[50]齐传新,内河船舶运输安全学,大连:大连海事大学出版社,1991年.
[51]谢式千等.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000,8.
[52]马振华.现代应用数学手册--概率统计与随机过程卷[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2000
[53]徐光辉.随机服务系统[M].北京:科学出版社,1980
[54]同济大学数学研究室,概率论.北京:高等教育出版社,1984年
[55]贾欣乐,杨盐生,船舶运动数学模型,大连:大连海事大学出版社,1999
[56]陈永奎,斜流效应的分析计算,北京:长江科学院院报,1996年第3期
[57]文岑,陈桂馥,船舶航行数值模拟.重庆:重庆交通学院学报,2000,19(4):102-106.
[58]乐美龙,陆惠生,汪希龄,倪学义,船舶操纵仿真研究.上海海运院船舶操纵模拟器论文专辑1997,8
[59]吴秀恒,船舶操纵性与耐波性,北京:人民交通出版社,1999
[60]张锡海.曹妃甸港及其附近水域航路优化的研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2007.
[61]刘敬贤,李云斌.天津港主航道船舶到达规律的统计分析[J].《武汉理工大学学报》.2008,32(2):351-353.
[62]刘敬贤,韩晓宝.基于排队论的受限航道通过能力计算[J].中国航海.2008,31(3):261-264
[63]刘敬贤,韩晓宝.渤海海峡船舶流的调查与分析[J].船海工程2008,37(4):95-98.
[64]刘敬贤,韩晓宝.渤海海峡海域的船舶定线制完善研究[J].航海技术2008,5:2-7
[65]齐东海.港口工程系统分析方法[M].人民交通出版社,1991.
[66]彭晓源.系统仿真技术[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,2006.
[67]罗荣桂.排队模型及其应用[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[68]唐应辉,唐小我.排队论.排队基础与分析技术[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[69]黄晓鸣,徐小义.排队论在港口规划设计中的应用[J].青岛大学学报(工程技术版).1996,11(3):59-62.
[70]李忠范,高文森.数理统计与随机过程.吉林:吉林大学出版社,2000
[71]鲁子爱.排队论在港口规划中的应用[J].水运工程,1997(8):11-15.
[72]于志青.排队论在交通工程中的应用研究[J].中州大学学报,2005,22(1):118-119.
[73]张智勇,荣建,郑弘.基于M/G/K排队模型的北京地区高速公路收费站通行能力的研究[J].公路,2001,46(7):128-133.
[74]王震远.城市道路环形交叉口车辆排队及行车延误研究[J].北京建筑工程学院学报,2004,20(3):54-58.
[75]田野.航道通过能力的研究与评定[D].大连海事大学,2002
[76]鲁子爱.港口服务系统仿真与港口规模优化研究:(博士学位论文).南京:河海大学,2001.
[77]Bigosinski,J.Nigerian port study:traffic studies and projections.MIT Center for Transportation Studies,Report 79-1,1979.
[78]Bobrovitch,D.Decentralized planning and competition in a national multi-port system.Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 14,1,31-42(1982)
[79]Gleave,G.R.A port traffic allocation model.The Dock & Harbour Authority,374-376(1981)
[80]Jansson,J.O.Shneerson,D.Port economics.MIT Press,Cambridge,Mass.1982
[81]Marti,B.E.Shift-share analysis and port geography:a New England example.Maritime Policy and Management 9,4,241-250(1982)
[82]Shneerson,D.Short term planning for a port system.Maritime Policy and Management 10,4,217-250(1983)
[83]Shneerson,D.Investment in port systems:a case of the Nigerian ports.Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 15,3,201-216(1981)
[84]Wilson,J.D.Optimal road capacity in the presence of unpriced congestion.Journal of Urban Economics 13,1,337-357(1983)
[85]W.David Kelton.Simulation with Arena.Mc Graw-Hill Professional,2004.
[86]Wadhwa,1990.Wadhwa,L.C.(1990).Capacity and performance of bulk handling ports.Proceedings of Australasian Transport Research Forum Vol.15),Part 1
[87]Warwar,1980.P.Warwar,Port capacity methodology.Ports(1980),p.80.
[88]Transportation Research Board,Highway Capacity Manual 2000,National Research Council,Washington,D.C.,2000.
[89]Transportation Research Board,Highway Capacity Manual,National Research Council,Washington,D.C.,1965.
[90]Transportation Research Board,Highway Capacity Manual,TRB Special Report No209,Washington,D.C.,Revised 1997
[91]Eelco Van Asperen,Modeling ship arrivals in ports,Proceedings of the 2003 Winter Simulation Conference,IEEE.2003
[92]Shabayek.A.A.Yeung W.W.,A Simulation Model of the Kwai Chung Container Terminal in Hong Kong.European Journal of Operational Research,2002(1)
[93]KESHAV DAHAL.A Port System Simulation Facility with an Optimization Capability.International Journal of Computational Intelligence and Applications.2003,4(3):395-410.
[94]Turner,H.S.Evaluating Seaport Policy Alternatives:A Simulation Study of Terminal Leasing Policy and System Performance.Maritime Policy and Management,2000,27(3):283-301
[95]Bruzzone A.G, Mosca R.Revetria R., Rapallo S.Risk Analysis in Harbor Environment Using Simulation Safety Science, 2000 (1)
[96]W.David Kelton.Simulation Modeling and Analysis.McGraw-Hill Higher Education, 1997.
[97]W.David Kelton, et al.Simulation with Arena.The Mc Graw-Hill Companies, U.S.A, 1998.
[98]PIANC.Overview of simulation techniques, capability ship maneuvering simulation models for approach channels and fairway in harbours, 336-345,1992.
[99]Radmilovich, Z.R.Radmilovich, Ship-berth link as bulk queuing system in ports.Journal of Waterway, Port Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 323-335, 1992.
[100]Kia, 1999.Kia, M..An integrated port and rail network using optimally located distribution centers.Proceedings of Coasts and Ports '99, 14-16 April 1999, Perth,Australia.1999
[101]Pridgeon A.W.Computer Simulation for Effective Port Planning.National Ccnference Publication.Institutuion of Engineerings, 1992
[102]Michael P.Computer Simulation in Management Science.New York: John Wikey & Sons, 1992
[103]P.V Davis.A Computer Simulation of Multi-Ships Encounters.Journal of Navigation, 1989
[104]T.G.Goldwell.Marine Traffic Behaviour in Restricted Waters.Journal of Navigation,Vol.36, 1983
[105]GOOD WIN E M.A Statistical Study of Ship Domains[J]Journal of Navigation, 1975.28(3) :328-344
[106]Fujii, Y.Some factors Affecting the Frequency of Accidents in Marine Traffic[J].Journal of Navigation, 1974,27 (2) : 235-252
[107]DNV.DNV Standard for Certification of Maritime Simulator Systems (NEW) [R].1999
[108]Kelly A D, Malin M C, Nielson C M.Terrain simulation using a mode of stream erosion [J].computerGraphics, 1988,22 (4) :263-268
[109]Chiba N, Muraoka K, Yaegashi K, et al.Terrain simulation based on the recursive refinement of ridge-line[J].Proc of the Second Int Conf on Computer-Aided Design and ComputerGraphics, 1991, 1: 19-24
[110]Hwang, C.N., "A Variation Approach to H2 and H∞ Control Problems for Linear Nonautonomous Systems," Proc.Natl.Sci.Counc.ROC (A) Vol.19,No.5,pp.408-422 1995
[111]King, P.J.and Monolanj, E.H., "Recent Technological Advances in the Control and Guidance of Ships," The Journal of Navigation, Vol.47, No.2, PP.236-241 (1994) .
[112]Chen, S.T, "The Control Design for Linear Time-Varying System and It's Applications On Ships" M.S.Thesis Published at National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan, R.O.C.(1994) .
[113]Hayuth Y.Building a port simulator.Simulation, 1994,63 (3) : 179-189.
[114]Kozan E.Comparison of Analytical and Simulation Planning Models for Seaport Container Terminals.Transp.Plan.Technol.1997,20 (3) : 235-248.
[115]W.GP.Lamb.The Calculation of Marine Collision Risks.Journal of Navigation, 1989
[116]P.V Davis.A Computer Simulation of Multi-Ships Encounters.Journal of Navigation, 1989
[117]Arup Traffic Study for the Port of Melbourne, surveyed by Arup Transportation Planning Group for the Port of Melbourne Authority, 401-^16,1990
[118]Fararoui.F.Fararoui.Queuing theory and berthing optimization.PhD Thesis Priority Berthing in Congested Ports, 23-32, 1989
[119]Frankel, E.G Frankel, Terminal capacity.Port Planning and Development, 56-65, 1987
[120]Frankel, E.G Frankel, Terminal capacity, port planning and development, 112-123, 1987.
[121]LIU Jingxian, ZHANG Di.Grid-Based Collision Risk Assessment Model Study on Navigable Waters.ICIST2007 PROCEEDINGS, ISBN 978-90-9022202-8, 173-180