零售企业BtoC客户关系可靠度研究
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摘要
随着市场竞争的日益激烈,客户关系管理(CRM)已经成为企业的重要战略。然而,许多企业(尤其是零售企业)实施CRM的成效却是不尽人意的,不成功的原因有很多,其中一个重要的原因是缺少有效的BtoC客户关系管理理论的指导。
目前普遍使用的客户忠诚理论在BtoC客户关系管理运用中存在着明显的局限性。该理论忽略了在竞争性市场条件下客户关系中的不确定性,忽略了企业维系客户关系所必须进行的“竞争性”投入,丰厚的收入并不等于高额的利润;同时,该理论还忽略了客户关系的动态性,即客户关系的未来状态是不稳定的,“忠诚客户”也有可能会“流失”。
由于BtoC客户关系存在着固有的不确定性,零售企业在客户关系管理理论的选择上,如果混淆客户关系的本质内涵,忽视BtoC客户关系与BtoB客户关系的特征差异,简单套用BtoB模式下总结出的一些客户关系管理理论,必然会导致客户关系管理策略的失效。
因此,为了解决不确定条件下BtoC客户关系维系决策的问题,本论文运用不确定性理论提出了客户关系可靠度的概念及其测量模型,并采用定性分析与定量研究相结合的研究方法,运用大量的数学模型(随机模型、统计模型、决策模型等)、编程语言(Matlab)、工具软件(SPSS)等,从零售企业的角度讨论了客户关系可靠度的理论及其运用,进行了理论运用的实证研究。
主要的创新性工作如下:
(1)运用不确定性原理方法,分析了客户忠诚理论不适用于BtoC客户关系管理的原因。
通过对客户关系的本质内涵重新认识和CRM主观意图的分析,概括了客户关系中的外部市场环境、客户需求、企业能力等三方面的不确定性表现形式,以及随机性、模糊性、灰色性、突变性等四种成因类型;通过客户关系管理的委托—代理结构模型化描述,以及对零售企业BtoC客户关系中客户忠诚理论的适用性分析,得出了客户忠诚理论不适用于管理零售企业BtoC客户关系的结论。
(2)应用博弈分析方法,建立BtoC客户关系的动态博弈模型,揭示了BtoC客户关系内在不确定性的形成机制。
通过引入动态博弈分析方法,建立了客户关系发展演变的动态博弈模型,描述了客户与企业在客户关系保持过程中的策略选择和期望收益,阐明了长期的客户关系不一定能够给企业带来丰厚的利润,很好地解释了客户的“忠诚”和“跳槽”的现象,阐明了BtoC客户关系的变化规律。
(3)提出了客户关系可靠度的概念及测量方法,建立了客户关系细分和客户关系动态维系决策模型。
客户关系可靠度的概念表达了在规定的时期内和一定的客户关系维系条件下,考虑市场竞争环境和企业产品吸引力衰减等因素的影响,与企业保持正常关系的某一时刻后,客户在后续关系保持期内购买本企业产品的可能性。
BtoC客户关系可靠度测量模型分为单体客户关系可靠度和群体客户关系系统可靠度两个方面。单体客户关系可靠度测量模型方面,引入了较为成熟的NBD/Pareto模型,描述了单体客户在未来时期里购买行为发生的可能性;群体客户关系可靠度测量模型方面,将群体客户关系系统状态描述为K/N(部分客户关系失效)系统状态,并通过概率迭代方法建立了群体客户关系可靠度计算模型,全面地反映了企业的客户关系情况,为BtoC客户关系维系提供了可靠的依据。
通过关系可靠度水平和可靠度衰减速率的计算,构建水平分界线和垂直分界线,建立了基于客户关系可靠度的客户分类模型,有效地进行了客户关系细分,并可以针对不同的细分客户状态采用相应的客户关系管理策略。
提出了基于动态可靠度客户关系维系决策模型,在保证企业的战略需要,维持一定数量的可靠、有效客户关系的前提下,寻求最佳的客户关系维系加固方案,以达到维系加固成本最小,实现了零售企业对BtoC客户关系的动态管理,在企业的经济能力和客户的可靠数量之间取得平衡。
Along with the increasing market competition, Customers Relationship Management has being become the strongpoint of enterprises. However, there are many cases of inefficient application (especially in retail enterprises). Among the unsuccessful reasons, the most basic reason is that there are less effective theoretic guidelines of the BtoC customer relationship management.
There were many obvious deficiencies in the customer loyalty theory generally used at present while it was put into practice in the BtoC customer relationship management. Firstly, the uncertainty of customer relationship under the competitive market condition was neglected. Secondly, the essential investment in the competition of retaining customer relationship was ignored, so the more incomes were not equal to the thick profits. Finally, the dynamic characteristic of BtoC customer relationship was belittled, that is to say, the future state of the customer relationship is unsteady, "loyal- customer" may also be "lost".
Because there is the inherent uncertainty in the BtoC customer relationship, when the management theory should be chosen, if the essential connotation of customer relationship has been confused, the characteristic difference of BtoC customer relationship with BtoB customer relationship has been neglected, and if some management theories of customer relationship summarized by the BtoB setting was being simply stereotyped, as a result, the strategy invalidation of customer relationship management took place.
Consequently, in order to resolve the problem of decision-making for retaining BtoC customer relationship under the uncertain condition, the conception of customer relationship reliability and its measure model were put forward by means of the uncertain theory application. In research methodology, qualitative and quantitative analysis has been used in this dissertation such as mathematics models (stochastic model, statistics model and decision-making model), writing program (Matlab), tool software(SPSS)...etc.. As viewed from retail enterprise, with the method of empirical analysis and case study used, the theory of customer relationship reliability and its usage were discussed thoroughly.
The innovative results are as follows:
1. With the application of the uncertain theory methodology, the invalidation reason of the loyalty theory applied to the BtoC customer relationship management is analyzed.
While the essential connotation of customer relationship and the subjective intention of customer relationship management were analyzed, three aspects of uncertainty were described such as exterior market environment, customer demand, enterprise capability, and four characteristics of uncertainty were depicted such as stochastic, fuzzy, gray, mutation. While the structure model of principal-agent for the customer relationship management was described, the applicability of customer loyalty theories for the BtoC customer relationship management in retail enterprises was analyzed, and then, it was summarized that the customer loyalty theories would not adapt to the management of BtoC customer relationship.
2. With the application of the game analysis methodology, the dynamic game model of the BtoC customer relationship was founded, and its evolvement law was discovered.
With the method of the dynamic game analysis was lead, the dynamic game model of the customer relationship evolvement was founded, and the strategy choice and the expectant income of customer or enterprise in the process of keeping the relationship were described, and the fact was clarified that a long-term customer's relationship not necessarily can bring enterprise big profits. It was a good explaining for the phenomenon of the customer's "loyalty" or "churn", and the law of the BtoC customer relationship evolvement was discovered.
3. The conception of the customer relationship reliability and its measure model were put forward, and the models of customer classification and relationship maintenance decision-making were given.
It is the possibility expressed by the conception of the customer relationship reliability that customer could buy the enterprise's products in the continuous period of keeping the natural relationship with the enterprise, in the provision period and in the certain condition of customer relationship maintenance, the factors of the market competition environment and the enterprise product attraction weakening were taken into account contemporarily.
The reliability measure model could be divided into the individual customer relationship and the community customer relationship system. In the aspect of individual customer relationship, with the adoption of the research result of the NBD/Pareto model, the possibility of individual customer purchase behavior taking place was depicted; In the aspect of the community customer relationship system, it was described as K/N system state (the state of partial customer relationship invalidation), and the reliability calculation model of the community customer relationship system was established by means of the probability iterative method, the circumstance of the customer relationship was opened out completely, and the credible foundation was offered for the BtoC customer relationship maintenance.
Based on the calculation of the relationship reliability level and reliability attenuation speed, the dividing line both horizontal and vertical were built up, the customer classification model based on the customer relationship reliability was established. Corresponding with the customer classification, some validation strategies of customer relationship management were introduced.
The decision-making model of customer relationship maintenance based on the dynamic reliability was put forward by this paper, with the precondition of preserving the enterprise strategic demand and maintaining some number of customer relationship not only reliable but also efficient, a optimal project of customer relationship maintenance can be looked for in order to minimize the maintenance cost. If that is truth, retail enterprise can be able to manage the BtoC customer relationship dynamically, and can keep the balance between the enterprise economy ability and reliable customer number.
目前普遍使用的客户忠诚理论在BtoC客户关系管理运用中存在着明显的局限性。该理论忽略了在竞争性市场条件下客户关系中的不确定性,忽略了企业维系客户关系所必须进行的“竞争性”投入,丰厚的收入并不等于高额的利润;同时,该理论还忽略了客户关系的动态性,即客户关系的未来状态是不稳定的,“忠诚客户”也有可能会“流失”。
由于BtoC客户关系存在着固有的不确定性,零售企业在客户关系管理理论的选择上,如果混淆客户关系的本质内涵,忽视BtoC客户关系与BtoB客户关系的特征差异,简单套用BtoB模式下总结出的一些客户关系管理理论,必然会导致客户关系管理策略的失效。
因此,为了解决不确定条件下BtoC客户关系维系决策的问题,本论文运用不确定性理论提出了客户关系可靠度的概念及其测量模型,并采用定性分析与定量研究相结合的研究方法,运用大量的数学模型(随机模型、统计模型、决策模型等)、编程语言(Matlab)、工具软件(SPSS)等,从零售企业的角度讨论了客户关系可靠度的理论及其运用,进行了理论运用的实证研究。
主要的创新性工作如下:
(1)运用不确定性原理方法,分析了客户忠诚理论不适用于BtoC客户关系管理的原因。
通过对客户关系的本质内涵重新认识和CRM主观意图的分析,概括了客户关系中的外部市场环境、客户需求、企业能力等三方面的不确定性表现形式,以及随机性、模糊性、灰色性、突变性等四种成因类型;通过客户关系管理的委托—代理结构模型化描述,以及对零售企业BtoC客户关系中客户忠诚理论的适用性分析,得出了客户忠诚理论不适用于管理零售企业BtoC客户关系的结论。
(2)应用博弈分析方法,建立BtoC客户关系的动态博弈模型,揭示了BtoC客户关系内在不确定性的形成机制。
通过引入动态博弈分析方法,建立了客户关系发展演变的动态博弈模型,描述了客户与企业在客户关系保持过程中的策略选择和期望收益,阐明了长期的客户关系不一定能够给企业带来丰厚的利润,很好地解释了客户的“忠诚”和“跳槽”的现象,阐明了BtoC客户关系的变化规律。
(3)提出了客户关系可靠度的概念及测量方法,建立了客户关系细分和客户关系动态维系决策模型。
客户关系可靠度的概念表达了在规定的时期内和一定的客户关系维系条件下,考虑市场竞争环境和企业产品吸引力衰减等因素的影响,与企业保持正常关系的某一时刻后,客户在后续关系保持期内购买本企业产品的可能性。
BtoC客户关系可靠度测量模型分为单体客户关系可靠度和群体客户关系系统可靠度两个方面。单体客户关系可靠度测量模型方面,引入了较为成熟的NBD/Pareto模型,描述了单体客户在未来时期里购买行为发生的可能性;群体客户关系可靠度测量模型方面,将群体客户关系系统状态描述为K/N(部分客户关系失效)系统状态,并通过概率迭代方法建立了群体客户关系可靠度计算模型,全面地反映了企业的客户关系情况,为BtoC客户关系维系提供了可靠的依据。
通过关系可靠度水平和可靠度衰减速率的计算,构建水平分界线和垂直分界线,建立了基于客户关系可靠度的客户分类模型,有效地进行了客户关系细分,并可以针对不同的细分客户状态采用相应的客户关系管理策略。
提出了基于动态可靠度客户关系维系决策模型,在保证企业的战略需要,维持一定数量的可靠、有效客户关系的前提下,寻求最佳的客户关系维系加固方案,以达到维系加固成本最小,实现了零售企业对BtoC客户关系的动态管理,在企业的经济能力和客户的可靠数量之间取得平衡。
Along with the increasing market competition, Customers Relationship Management has being become the strongpoint of enterprises. However, there are many cases of inefficient application (especially in retail enterprises). Among the unsuccessful reasons, the most basic reason is that there are less effective theoretic guidelines of the BtoC customer relationship management.
There were many obvious deficiencies in the customer loyalty theory generally used at present while it was put into practice in the BtoC customer relationship management. Firstly, the uncertainty of customer relationship under the competitive market condition was neglected. Secondly, the essential investment in the competition of retaining customer relationship was ignored, so the more incomes were not equal to the thick profits. Finally, the dynamic characteristic of BtoC customer relationship was belittled, that is to say, the future state of the customer relationship is unsteady, "loyal- customer" may also be "lost".
Because there is the inherent uncertainty in the BtoC customer relationship, when the management theory should be chosen, if the essential connotation of customer relationship has been confused, the characteristic difference of BtoC customer relationship with BtoB customer relationship has been neglected, and if some management theories of customer relationship summarized by the BtoB setting was being simply stereotyped, as a result, the strategy invalidation of customer relationship management took place.
Consequently, in order to resolve the problem of decision-making for retaining BtoC customer relationship under the uncertain condition, the conception of customer relationship reliability and its measure model were put forward by means of the uncertain theory application. In research methodology, qualitative and quantitative analysis has been used in this dissertation such as mathematics models (stochastic model, statistics model and decision-making model), writing program (Matlab), tool software(SPSS)...etc.. As viewed from retail enterprise, with the method of empirical analysis and case study used, the theory of customer relationship reliability and its usage were discussed thoroughly.
The innovative results are as follows:
1. With the application of the uncertain theory methodology, the invalidation reason of the loyalty theory applied to the BtoC customer relationship management is analyzed.
While the essential connotation of customer relationship and the subjective intention of customer relationship management were analyzed, three aspects of uncertainty were described such as exterior market environment, customer demand, enterprise capability, and four characteristics of uncertainty were depicted such as stochastic, fuzzy, gray, mutation. While the structure model of principal-agent for the customer relationship management was described, the applicability of customer loyalty theories for the BtoC customer relationship management in retail enterprises was analyzed, and then, it was summarized that the customer loyalty theories would not adapt to the management of BtoC customer relationship.
2. With the application of the game analysis methodology, the dynamic game model of the BtoC customer relationship was founded, and its evolvement law was discovered.
With the method of the dynamic game analysis was lead, the dynamic game model of the customer relationship evolvement was founded, and the strategy choice and the expectant income of customer or enterprise in the process of keeping the relationship were described, and the fact was clarified that a long-term customer's relationship not necessarily can bring enterprise big profits. It was a good explaining for the phenomenon of the customer's "loyalty" or "churn", and the law of the BtoC customer relationship evolvement was discovered.
3. The conception of the customer relationship reliability and its measure model were put forward, and the models of customer classification and relationship maintenance decision-making were given.
It is the possibility expressed by the conception of the customer relationship reliability that customer could buy the enterprise's products in the continuous period of keeping the natural relationship with the enterprise, in the provision period and in the certain condition of customer relationship maintenance, the factors of the market competition environment and the enterprise product attraction weakening were taken into account contemporarily.
The reliability measure model could be divided into the individual customer relationship and the community customer relationship system. In the aspect of individual customer relationship, with the adoption of the research result of the NBD/Pareto model, the possibility of individual customer purchase behavior taking place was depicted; In the aspect of the community customer relationship system, it was described as K/N system state (the state of partial customer relationship invalidation), and the reliability calculation model of the community customer relationship system was established by means of the probability iterative method, the circumstance of the customer relationship was opened out completely, and the credible foundation was offered for the BtoC customer relationship maintenance.
Based on the calculation of the relationship reliability level and reliability attenuation speed, the dividing line both horizontal and vertical were built up, the customer classification model based on the customer relationship reliability was established. Corresponding with the customer classification, some validation strategies of customer relationship management were introduced.
The decision-making model of customer relationship maintenance based on the dynamic reliability was put forward by this paper, with the precondition of preserving the enterprise strategic demand and maintaining some number of customer relationship not only reliable but also efficient, a optimal project of customer relationship maintenance can be looked for in order to minimize the maintenance cost. If that is truth, retail enterprise can be able to manage the BtoC customer relationship dynamically, and can keep the balance between the enterprise economy ability and reliable customer number.
引文
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