吉林省森林火灾格局及扑救能力评价
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摘要
本文利用ArcView、ArcMap与SPSS等软件,结合吉林省森林火灾资料(1992-2008年),在全面研究林火时空分布格局的基础上,分析森林火灾损失与蔓延速度的关系,评测森林火灾扑救能力。结果表明：
(1)吉林省1950-2009年平均每十年发生森林火灾次数和过火面积呈递减趋势,进入2000年后年均森林火灾发生次数虽小有上升、但多以森林火警为主。
(2)吉林省森林火灾呈现明显的季节规律,森林火灾主要集中发生于春、秋季,其中尤以春季最为严重,1992-2008年春季发生频次占78%,过火面积占90.3%。
(3)4、5、10月是林火的高发月,3个月累计发生的森林火灾的次数占森林火灾发生次数的82.73%。其中,尤其以4月最为严重,1992-2008年4月森林火灾发生次数占总发生次数的42.89%,累计森林火灾过火面积占总过火面积的56.18%,累计损失占总损失的39.21%。
(4)1992-2008年全省火灾频发于中东部,即延边朝鲜族自治州、汪清北部、通化集安等地,其中敦化市和延边朝鲜族自治州安图县是火灾次数最多,受害面积较重的地区。
(5)1992-2008年全省平均每次森林火灾历时2.86小时。林火蔓延时间超过5小时为66次,仅占总次数的8%,因其所损失价值为753.84万元,占总损失的28.3%。
(6)吉林省森林火灾损失价值与平均每小时火蔓延面积显著相关(r=0.87),平均每小时火蔓延面积可以替代林火蔓延速度,能作为衡量火燃烧快慢的指标,而且其在复杂的实际情况下较容易获取,较能准确反映体现扑救能力的高低。
Based on the study on the spatial-temporal distribution pattern of forest fire in Jilin province with the forest fire data from 1992 to 2008 using ArcView、ArcMap and SPSS softwares, the relationship between forest fire loss and rate of spread was analyzed to evaluate the suppression capability of forest fire. Results show that:
(1) The fire occurrences and area burned by per 10-year periods from 1950 to 2009 in Jilin province present a pronounced downward trend. Forest fire occurrence shows a little increase since 2000, but most are forest fire alarms.
(2) The forest fire in Jilin province shows obvious seasonal change. Forest fire occurs mainly in spring and autumn, especially in spring. The fire occurrences in spring from 1992 to 1998 take up 78% of the whole, and area burned takes up 90.3%.
(3) Forest fire occur frequently in April, May and October, whose total fire occurrences take up 82.73% of the whole. April has the most fire occurrences, which take up 42.89% of the whole from 1992 to 1998. Accumulated area burned by forest fire in Aprils takes up 56.18% of the whole and accumulated economic loss takes up 39.21%.
(4) Forest fire occurred frequently in the middle and eastern part of the province from 1992 to 1998. This region includes Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, the northern part of Wangqing County, Tonghua City, Ji'an City and so on. Dunhua City and Antu County in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture are the area where forest fire occurs most and have much area damaged.
(5) The average duration of each forest fire from 1992 to 1998 in the province is 2.86 hours. There are 66 times of forest fire whose duration is over 5 hours, taking up 8% of the total times. The economic loss caused by them is 7.5384 million, taking up 28.3% of the total loss.
(6) There is significant correlation between forest fire losses and average area burned per hour (r=0.87), average area burned can replace fire rate of spread as the index to evaluate the fire speed for it is easy to obtain in complicated actual situation and can reflect the suppression ability precisely.
(1)吉林省1950-2009年平均每十年发生森林火灾次数和过火面积呈递减趋势,进入2000年后年均森林火灾发生次数虽小有上升、但多以森林火警为主。
(2)吉林省森林火灾呈现明显的季节规律,森林火灾主要集中发生于春、秋季,其中尤以春季最为严重,1992-2008年春季发生频次占78%,过火面积占90.3%。
(3)4、5、10月是林火的高发月,3个月累计发生的森林火灾的次数占森林火灾发生次数的82.73%。其中,尤其以4月最为严重,1992-2008年4月森林火灾发生次数占总发生次数的42.89%,累计森林火灾过火面积占总过火面积的56.18%,累计损失占总损失的39.21%。
(4)1992-2008年全省火灾频发于中东部,即延边朝鲜族自治州、汪清北部、通化集安等地,其中敦化市和延边朝鲜族自治州安图县是火灾次数最多,受害面积较重的地区。
(5)1992-2008年全省平均每次森林火灾历时2.86小时。林火蔓延时间超过5小时为66次,仅占总次数的8%,因其所损失价值为753.84万元,占总损失的28.3%。
(6)吉林省森林火灾损失价值与平均每小时火蔓延面积显著相关(r=0.87),平均每小时火蔓延面积可以替代林火蔓延速度,能作为衡量火燃烧快慢的指标,而且其在复杂的实际情况下较容易获取,较能准确反映体现扑救能力的高低。
Based on the study on the spatial-temporal distribution pattern of forest fire in Jilin province with the forest fire data from 1992 to 2008 using ArcView、ArcMap and SPSS softwares, the relationship between forest fire loss and rate of spread was analyzed to evaluate the suppression capability of forest fire. Results show that:
(1) The fire occurrences and area burned by per 10-year periods from 1950 to 2009 in Jilin province present a pronounced downward trend. Forest fire occurrence shows a little increase since 2000, but most are forest fire alarms.
(2) The forest fire in Jilin province shows obvious seasonal change. Forest fire occurs mainly in spring and autumn, especially in spring. The fire occurrences in spring from 1992 to 1998 take up 78% of the whole, and area burned takes up 90.3%.
(3) Forest fire occur frequently in April, May and October, whose total fire occurrences take up 82.73% of the whole. April has the most fire occurrences, which take up 42.89% of the whole from 1992 to 1998. Accumulated area burned by forest fire in Aprils takes up 56.18% of the whole and accumulated economic loss takes up 39.21%.
(4) Forest fire occurred frequently in the middle and eastern part of the province from 1992 to 1998. This region includes Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, the northern part of Wangqing County, Tonghua City, Ji'an City and so on. Dunhua City and Antu County in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture are the area where forest fire occurs most and have much area damaged.
(5) The average duration of each forest fire from 1992 to 1998 in the province is 2.86 hours. There are 66 times of forest fire whose duration is over 5 hours, taking up 8% of the total times. The economic loss caused by them is 7.5384 million, taking up 28.3% of the total loss.
(6) There is significant correlation between forest fire losses and average area burned per hour (r=0.87), average area burned can replace fire rate of spread as the index to evaluate the fire speed for it is easy to obtain in complicated actual situation and can reflect the suppression ability precisely.
引文
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