复合制导武器系统战技指标的融合评估方法研究
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摘要
本文以复合制导武器系统为对象,在小子样试验样本下,分别对目标截获概率和识别概率等成功概率、落点精度、毁伤效能三种经典战技指标的融合评估方法进行了研究。以战技指标为目标,分析误差影响因素,基于参数化建模,对异质多源信息进行等效推算、误差折合、融合评估。本文的主要工作和创新点如下:
针对成败型试验的融合评估方法研究,以雷达寻的复合制导武器为背景,分析了雷达对目标探测、识别的工作机理,对共同特性、影响因素进行了分析;通过对环境杂波和目标电磁散射的仿真方法研究,产生仿真数据,模拟原型试验状态;建立了关于成功概率的参数化Logistic模型,通过定义仿真可信度,将异质试验信息与原型试验数据加以融合,并利用回归分析方法进行参数估计,得到从替代试验结果推算到原型试验结果的等效方法;提出了极小子样下目标识别概率的融合评估方法,替代等效试验数据关于影响因素做Logistic回归分析,预测原型试验下的目标识别率,仿真试验通过目标电磁散射的预估、杂波以及干扰的模拟,对原型试验做出模拟,获得目标识别率的测试值,最后根据可信度的研究对先验信息进行加权融合评估;针对利用线性、非线性建模确定验前信息权重融合验前分布时模型不准确,以及主观经验信息选取不当导致融合效果不好的问题,以信息熵理论为平台,将多源异质试验信息折算到原型试验下,根据自助(Bootstrap)方法确定了试验样本参数的验前分布,最后结合现场试验信息,根据Bayes方法给出验后分布。
针对落点精度的融合评估方法研究,以雷达寻的复合制导武器系统的工作原理为基础,对影响落点精度的误差源进行分析,建立了落点偏差模型,并重点对制导工具误差和雷达寻的制导误差折合方法进行了研究。针对惯性制导工具误差折合,提出了一种稀疏成分分析的制导工具误差分离方法,构造了变正则参数的正则化处理模型,研究了模型参数的最优选取,并设计了自适应迭代算法,可以有效改善系数相关性的问题;针对雷达寻的制导误差折合,提出了一种基于随机过程特性分析的等效折合方法,可以充分利用过程信息验证模型,推算落点系统误差和随机变量的特征,得到的评估结果更为稳健。根据误差合成,可以得到替代试验折合样本。提出了一种基于先验信息可信度的Bayes融合评估方法,替代试验折合样本与原型试验样本进行数据相容性检验,判断该项替代试验折合数据是否能进行融合评估,根据数据相容性检验结果和折合精度,计算先验信息可信度,然后利用Bayes加权融合方法计算样本参数的验后分布,得到原型试验下的落点误差评估结果。
针对封锁效能评估及优化方案设计研究,以末修子母弹联合火力打击机场跑道为背景,对封锁效能的评估模型及优化方案进行了研究。以基础效应库、弹目参数以及修复参数库作为初始参数,利用Monte-Carlo仿真了子弹群的落点分布、弹坑大小分布等,实现对打击过程的计算机模拟,统计多次模拟结果,得到封锁概率和封锁时间的评估模型;在给定封锁效能指标要求的情况下,对联合火力打击机场跑道的方案优化问题进行了研究,选取相应优化参数,建立优化模型,通过直接搜索和遗传算法对优化目标函数求解进行了算法设计,并进行了分析评价;针对直接搜索算法中大量参数组合方案计算时间较长的问题,设计了主从进程的并行算法,提高了计算速度和效率。
Taking combined guidance weapon system(CGWS) as the research object, this paper studies the fusion evaluation methods for three classic tactic indexes in small test samples, which are separately the success probability, the impact precision and the interdiction effectiveness. We take the tactic indexes as the object, analyze the influencing factors for the errors, establish the error models and then supply methods for the equivalent computation, error conversion and fusion evaluation.
The main work and creativity of this paper are as follows:
Researches on the fusion evaluation method for the success probability Based on the background of the active/passive radar aided navigation system (ANS), we study the target detection and recognition principles of the homing radar, and analyze the common characteristics and their influencing factors. We create the simulated data and imitate the prototype test by studying the simulation methods of the environment clutter and the target electromagnetic scattering.
We establish the Logistic parameterization model for the success probability, fuse the heterogeneous test information and the prototype test data with the definition of the simulation credibility, estimate the coherent parameter by the regression analysis, and obtain the equivalent prediction method from the substitute test data to the prototype test result.
We propose a fusion evaluation method of the target recognition probability in the minimum test samples. At first, we forecast the recognition probability in the prototype test by Logistic regression analysis of the influencing factors with substitute equivalent data. Then we simulate the prototype test by the target electromagnetic scattering simulation, the clutter simulation, and the interference simulation, obtain the testing value of the recognition probability. At last we take the weighted fusion evaluation for the prior information by the credibility research.
Since the evaluating results of the success probability are not so good when linear model or nonlinear model is used to identify the weights of the prior distribution and subjective experiential information are usually not accurately chosen, we take the information entropy theory as a platform, convert the polygenetic heterogeneous test information into the prototype test data, identify the prior distribution of the success probability via the Bootstrap method, and then give the posterior distribution by the Bayesian method with prototype test information.
Researches on the fusion evaluation method for the impact precision
Basing on the operating principle of the active/passive radar ANS, we analyze the error sources influencing the impact precision, establish the impact deviation model, and chiefly study the equivalent conversion methods for the inertial guidance instruments error and the homing radar guidance error.
We propose an inertial guidance instruments error separation method by the sparse composition analysis, which can improve the coefficient correlation problem. In the method, we construct a weighted regularization model, discuss the criterion for selecting optimal model parameter, and design an adaptive iterative process.
We propose an equivalent conversion method with process information for the homing radar guidance error, which validates the procedure error model with systematic error and random error characteristics by all observed information and provide a more robust evaluation result.
We can get the substitute test conversion sample by the root variance compositing principle, and propose a Bayesian fusion evaluation method based on the prior information credibility. Firstly we take a consistency test between the substitute test conversion sample and the prototype test sample, define and compute the prior information credibility, then calculate the posterior distribution of the sample parameters, and finally get the evaluation result of the prototype test impact error. Researches on the fusion evaluation method for the interdiction effectiveness
Based on the background of the submunition attacking the airport runway, we study the interdiction efficiency assessment model and the scheme optimization. Firstly we take the basal efficiency data, the bullets parameters, the target parameters, and the repair parameters as the initial variables, then simulate the impact distribution of the bullet cluster and the distribution of the attacking pits’size. In succession, we realize the computer simulations for the attacking procedure. Finally we get the assessment model of the destruction probability of the runway(DPR) and the interdiction time.
Given the interdiction index level, we study the scheme design optimization problem. At first we choose the optimizing parameters, then establish the optimization model, and design two different algorithms for searching the optimization solution, which are the direct search algorithm and the genetic algorithm. In consider of the long calculation time when there are too many combination schemes in the direct search algorithm, we design a parallel algorithm in order to improve the calculation speed and efficiency.
针对成败型试验的融合评估方法研究,以雷达寻的复合制导武器为背景,分析了雷达对目标探测、识别的工作机理,对共同特性、影响因素进行了分析;通过对环境杂波和目标电磁散射的仿真方法研究,产生仿真数据,模拟原型试验状态;建立了关于成功概率的参数化Logistic模型,通过定义仿真可信度,将异质试验信息与原型试验数据加以融合,并利用回归分析方法进行参数估计,得到从替代试验结果推算到原型试验结果的等效方法;提出了极小子样下目标识别概率的融合评估方法,替代等效试验数据关于影响因素做Logistic回归分析,预测原型试验下的目标识别率,仿真试验通过目标电磁散射的预估、杂波以及干扰的模拟,对原型试验做出模拟,获得目标识别率的测试值,最后根据可信度的研究对先验信息进行加权融合评估;针对利用线性、非线性建模确定验前信息权重融合验前分布时模型不准确,以及主观经验信息选取不当导致融合效果不好的问题,以信息熵理论为平台,将多源异质试验信息折算到原型试验下,根据自助(Bootstrap)方法确定了试验样本参数的验前分布,最后结合现场试验信息,根据Bayes方法给出验后分布。
针对落点精度的融合评估方法研究,以雷达寻的复合制导武器系统的工作原理为基础,对影响落点精度的误差源进行分析,建立了落点偏差模型,并重点对制导工具误差和雷达寻的制导误差折合方法进行了研究。针对惯性制导工具误差折合,提出了一种稀疏成分分析的制导工具误差分离方法,构造了变正则参数的正则化处理模型,研究了模型参数的最优选取,并设计了自适应迭代算法,可以有效改善系数相关性的问题;针对雷达寻的制导误差折合,提出了一种基于随机过程特性分析的等效折合方法,可以充分利用过程信息验证模型,推算落点系统误差和随机变量的特征,得到的评估结果更为稳健。根据误差合成,可以得到替代试验折合样本。提出了一种基于先验信息可信度的Bayes融合评估方法,替代试验折合样本与原型试验样本进行数据相容性检验,判断该项替代试验折合数据是否能进行融合评估,根据数据相容性检验结果和折合精度,计算先验信息可信度,然后利用Bayes加权融合方法计算样本参数的验后分布,得到原型试验下的落点误差评估结果。
针对封锁效能评估及优化方案设计研究,以末修子母弹联合火力打击机场跑道为背景,对封锁效能的评估模型及优化方案进行了研究。以基础效应库、弹目参数以及修复参数库作为初始参数,利用Monte-Carlo仿真了子弹群的落点分布、弹坑大小分布等,实现对打击过程的计算机模拟,统计多次模拟结果,得到封锁概率和封锁时间的评估模型;在给定封锁效能指标要求的情况下,对联合火力打击机场跑道的方案优化问题进行了研究,选取相应优化参数,建立优化模型,通过直接搜索和遗传算法对优化目标函数求解进行了算法设计,并进行了分析评价;针对直接搜索算法中大量参数组合方案计算时间较长的问题,设计了主从进程的并行算法,提高了计算速度和效率。
Taking combined guidance weapon system(CGWS) as the research object, this paper studies the fusion evaluation methods for three classic tactic indexes in small test samples, which are separately the success probability, the impact precision and the interdiction effectiveness. We take the tactic indexes as the object, analyze the influencing factors for the errors, establish the error models and then supply methods for the equivalent computation, error conversion and fusion evaluation.
The main work and creativity of this paper are as follows:
Researches on the fusion evaluation method for the success probability Based on the background of the active/passive radar aided navigation system (ANS), we study the target detection and recognition principles of the homing radar, and analyze the common characteristics and their influencing factors. We create the simulated data and imitate the prototype test by studying the simulation methods of the environment clutter and the target electromagnetic scattering.
We establish the Logistic parameterization model for the success probability, fuse the heterogeneous test information and the prototype test data with the definition of the simulation credibility, estimate the coherent parameter by the regression analysis, and obtain the equivalent prediction method from the substitute test data to the prototype test result.
We propose a fusion evaluation method of the target recognition probability in the minimum test samples. At first, we forecast the recognition probability in the prototype test by Logistic regression analysis of the influencing factors with substitute equivalent data. Then we simulate the prototype test by the target electromagnetic scattering simulation, the clutter simulation, and the interference simulation, obtain the testing value of the recognition probability. At last we take the weighted fusion evaluation for the prior information by the credibility research.
Since the evaluating results of the success probability are not so good when linear model or nonlinear model is used to identify the weights of the prior distribution and subjective experiential information are usually not accurately chosen, we take the information entropy theory as a platform, convert the polygenetic heterogeneous test information into the prototype test data, identify the prior distribution of the success probability via the Bootstrap method, and then give the posterior distribution by the Bayesian method with prototype test information.
Researches on the fusion evaluation method for the impact precision
Basing on the operating principle of the active/passive radar ANS, we analyze the error sources influencing the impact precision, establish the impact deviation model, and chiefly study the equivalent conversion methods for the inertial guidance instruments error and the homing radar guidance error.
We propose an inertial guidance instruments error separation method by the sparse composition analysis, which can improve the coefficient correlation problem. In the method, we construct a weighted regularization model, discuss the criterion for selecting optimal model parameter, and design an adaptive iterative process.
We propose an equivalent conversion method with process information for the homing radar guidance error, which validates the procedure error model with systematic error and random error characteristics by all observed information and provide a more robust evaluation result.
We can get the substitute test conversion sample by the root variance compositing principle, and propose a Bayesian fusion evaluation method based on the prior information credibility. Firstly we take a consistency test between the substitute test conversion sample and the prototype test sample, define and compute the prior information credibility, then calculate the posterior distribution of the sample parameters, and finally get the evaluation result of the prototype test impact error. Researches on the fusion evaluation method for the interdiction effectiveness
Based on the background of the submunition attacking the airport runway, we study the interdiction efficiency assessment model and the scheme optimization. Firstly we take the basal efficiency data, the bullets parameters, the target parameters, and the repair parameters as the initial variables, then simulate the impact distribution of the bullet cluster and the distribution of the attacking pits’size. In succession, we realize the computer simulations for the attacking procedure. Finally we get the assessment model of the destruction probability of the runway(DPR) and the interdiction time.
Given the interdiction index level, we study the scheme design optimization problem. At first we choose the optimizing parameters, then establish the optimization model, and design two different algorithms for searching the optimization solution, which are the direct search algorithm and the genetic algorithm. In consider of the long calculation time when there are too many combination schemes in the direct search algorithm, we design a parallel algorithm in order to improve the calculation speed and efficiency.
引文
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