基于灰熵的先进制造技术投资潜在风险研究
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摘要
随着经济的不断发展和科技的不断进步，人们的需求也越来越高，但是地球资源越来越少，人口也越来越多，人们对物质的需求就对制造业提出了更高的要求，这就使得传统的制造技术不断发展，于是先进制造技术应运而生。
首先，本文从区位选择、技术选择和战略选择几方面分析了先进制造技术投资的选择问题，分析了影响先进制造技术投资的潜在风险因素有哪些，并分析了先进制造技术的实施问题，然后通过对潜在风险影响因素的内在联系进行分析，运用熵权法，确定出这些潜在风险因素的权重，然后对变量进行赋值从而构建出灰熵模型，对灰熵模型求解并对其求解结果进行了分析。
其次，在对AMT投资风险特征充分认识的基础上识别潜在风险和引发这些潜在风险的具体因素，提出了不同影响因素下的潜在风险规避的措施，同时规划了措施的实施途径。这可以让投资者认识和控制风险，在有限的空间和时间内改变潜在风险存在和发生的条件，降低其发生的频率，减少损失程度，但潜在风险不可能完全消除。
最后，运用前面建立的灰熵模型，对长春市富奥公司泵业分公司的先进制造技术投资的潜在风险进行了实证研究，分析了该公司的泵业分公司技术投资的潜在风险因素，并对其进行了具体地分析，根据计算结果分析了各类潜在风险因素如何进行规避，并给出了潜在风险规避的对策。
With the advancement of technology and economic, people’ demand for materialcontinues to increase. However, by the limited resources of the earth and theever-expanding population, social development has put forward higher demand to thesupporting industry-manufacturing industry and its technology system. This optimize theadvanced manufacturing technology which constantly optimize develop rapidly.
Firstly, it analyzed the choice of advanced manufacturing technology from severalaspects of strategic location, technology and strategy. Then it analyzed the effect factors ofadvanced manufacturing technology investment potential risk, and the problem ofadvanced manufacturing technology implementation. Further, based on the internallinkage analysis, I use entropy method to determine the weight of all potential risk factors.Finally, I construct gray entropy model, solved results and analyzed the results.
Secondly, based on advanced manufacture investment risk’s characteristics, Irecognized potential risks and the factors leading to these potential risks. In the light of thefactors I put forward several measures to avoid them and planned implementationapproach of the measures. This could help investors understand and control the risk. Theycan change the condition of potential risks happening, reduce the loss degree.
Finally, using the grey entropy model, I researched advanced manufacturingtechnology investment potential risks of Fuao Company’s branch. Then I analyzed thiscompany’s impacting factors of technology investment potential risks, and carried on themeasurement. According to the analysis results, the paper gave some suggestion to avoidthe important risks and gave the countermeasure for potential risk aversion.
首先，本文从区位选择、技术选择和战略选择几方面分析了先进制造技术投资的选择问题，分析了影响先进制造技术投资的潜在风险因素有哪些，并分析了先进制造技术的实施问题，然后通过对潜在风险影响因素的内在联系进行分析，运用熵权法，确定出这些潜在风险因素的权重，然后对变量进行赋值从而构建出灰熵模型，对灰熵模型求解并对其求解结果进行了分析。
其次，在对AMT投资风险特征充分认识的基础上识别潜在风险和引发这些潜在风险的具体因素，提出了不同影响因素下的潜在风险规避的措施，同时规划了措施的实施途径。这可以让投资者认识和控制风险，在有限的空间和时间内改变潜在风险存在和发生的条件，降低其发生的频率，减少损失程度，但潜在风险不可能完全消除。
最后，运用前面建立的灰熵模型，对长春市富奥公司泵业分公司的先进制造技术投资的潜在风险进行了实证研究，分析了该公司的泵业分公司技术投资的潜在风险因素，并对其进行了具体地分析，根据计算结果分析了各类潜在风险因素如何进行规避，并给出了潜在风险规避的对策。
With the advancement of technology and economic, people’ demand for materialcontinues to increase. However, by the limited resources of the earth and theever-expanding population, social development has put forward higher demand to thesupporting industry-manufacturing industry and its technology system. This optimize theadvanced manufacturing technology which constantly optimize develop rapidly.
Firstly, it analyzed the choice of advanced manufacturing technology from severalaspects of strategic location, technology and strategy. Then it analyzed the effect factors ofadvanced manufacturing technology investment potential risk, and the problem ofadvanced manufacturing technology implementation. Further, based on the internallinkage analysis, I use entropy method to determine the weight of all potential risk factors.Finally, I construct gray entropy model, solved results and analyzed the results.
Secondly, based on advanced manufacture investment risk’s characteristics, Irecognized potential risks and the factors leading to these potential risks. In the light of thefactors I put forward several measures to avoid them and planned implementationapproach of the measures. This could help investors understand and control the risk. Theycan change the condition of potential risks happening, reduce the loss degree.
Finally, using the grey entropy model, I researched advanced manufacturingtechnology investment potential risks of Fuao Company’s branch. Then I analyzed thiscompany’s impacting factors of technology investment potential risks, and carried on themeasurement. According to the analysis results, the paper gave some suggestion to avoidthe important risks and gave the countermeasure for potential risk aversion.
引文
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[2] Dodgson F. Economic Justification of NC Lathes. Machinery and Production Engineering,1972,5(10):647-652.
[3]邓光军,曾勇.双不对称下的技术投资竞争决策[J].管理科学学报,2011,2(14):1-18.
[4]聂鸣,蔡希贤.先进制造技术的投资评价[J].技术经济,2009,3:45-47.
[5]郭克莎.新时期我国工业发展战略与政策[M].北京:人民出版社,2004(6):61-63.
[6] Saaty T. Procedures for Synthesizing Ratio Judgments. Journal of Mathematical, Psychol,2007,(10):93-102
[7] P.Oborski. Man-machine interactions in advanced manufacturing systems. TheInternationalJournal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology,2004,23(4):227-232.
[8] Proctor.M.D and Canada,J.R.Past and Present Methods of Manufacturing InvestmentEvaluation:A Review of the Empirical and Theoretical Literature[J]. The Engineering Economist,1992,38(1):45-58.
[9] Louis Raymon. Operations management and advanced manufacturing technologies in SMEs:Acontingency approach[J]. Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management,2005(8):936-955.
[10] Chen,I.J.and Small,M.H. Implementing Advanced Manufacturing Technology:An IntegratedPlanning Model[J]. Omega,2008,22(1):91-103.
[11] M. Punniyamoorthy, P.V. Ragavan. A Strategic Decision Model for the Justification of TechnologySelection. Internat. J. Adv. Manuf. Tech,2008,(21):72-78
[12] A.I. Olcer, A.Y. Odabasi. A New Fuzzy Multiple Attributive Group Decision Making Methodologyand its Application to Propulsion/Maneuvering System Selection Problem. European J. Oper. Res,2005,(166):93–114
[13] E.E. Karsak, E. Tolga. Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision-making Procedure for Evaluating AdvancedManufacturing System Investments. Internat. J. Production Economy,2001,(69):49–64
[14]万树平.布雷方案评估的灰关联度方法律[J].计算机工程与应用,2009,45(32):78-90.
[15]许莹,黄宇驰.基于熵理论的家族企业治理结构变迁分析.科研管理,2008,12(29):154-160.
[16]王正新,党耀国,曹明霞.基于灰熵优化的加权灰色关联度[J].系统工程与电子技术,2010,4:774-775,783.
[17]侯伟.基于灰熵法的沥青混合料低温抗裂性能影响因素研究[J].山西建筑,2009,19(35):260-261.
[18]陈亦文.泡沫沥青发泡效果影响因素的灰熵法分析[J].公路与汽车,2010,3:88-91.
[19]刘志前.基于灰熵法的钢管混凝土强度影响因素分析[J].公路交通科技应用技术版,2010,7:202-204.
[20]童勋.基于灰熵关联度的员工个体绩效考评分析[J].价值工程,2005.4:51-52.
[21]彭灿.国外先进制造技术(AMT)评价研究综述及展望[J].系统工程理论方法应用,1997,6(04):61-67
[22]李春好,桑静,贾艳辉.先进制造技术投资评价模式研究[J].工业技术经济,2005,3(24):101-103.
[23]刘思峰,赵亮,王战营,林益.风险投资评价的一种新方法[J].中国管理科学,2001,(2):22-26
[24]林君晓,姜鹏飞,谢玉萍.蒙特卡罗模拟技术在污水处理项目风险分析中的应用.科技管理研究,2006,(12):171-173
[25]林晓慧.利用外国直接投资的潜在风险分析[J].广东金融学院学报,2005,7(20):45-48
[26]李晓明,孙林岩,汪应洛,高杰.先进制造技术应用水平与制造业企业市场竞争力关系研究[J].管理工程学报,2004,18(4):55-59.
[27]李亨昭,邱敬之,戚法云.先进制造技术的发展趋势与战略设想[J].电子机械工程,2000,4:62-64.
[28]邓聚龙.灰色控制系统[M].湖北:华中科技大学出版社,1993,9:5.
[29]陈仕周,刘艳,张鸣功.基于灰熵法分析研究矿粉指标对沥青胶浆高温性能的影响[J].中外公路,2009,2:237-240.
[30] Gianluca Ciardelli and Valeria Chiono. Innovative tissue engineering structrues through advancedmanufacturing technologies[J]. Journal of Materials Science.2004,15(4):305-310.
[31] Christian Hofmann and Stuart Orr. Advanced manufacturing technology adoption-the Germanexperience[J]. Technovation.2005,25(7):711-724.
[32] Attaran M. The Automated Factory: Justification and Implementation. Business Horizon,2001,May-June:80-8.
[33] Che Ruhana Isa, Soon-Yan, Foong and Murali Sambasivan. The Roles of Market Competition andAdvanced Manufacturing Technology in Predicting Management Accounting and ControlSystems Change [J]. Asia Pacific Management Review.2005,10(6):397-403.
[34] Co H, Flowers A D. A Case-study on Computer Integrated Manufacturing. Automation Forum,Cleveland, OH,1999,5:251-253.
[35]胡燕海,叶飞帆.国外实施先进制造技术的成效、问题与对策[J].工业工程与管理,2000,1:34-38.
[36] LJ.Thomas. Price-production Decisions with Deterministic Demand. Management Science,2010,16(5):747-750
[37]重大技术装备制造业发展研究[C].2007-2008中国生产力发展研究报告,2009,5.
[38]王中亮.高成长企业的形成条件及其风险防范[J].现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2006.7:44-49.
[39]蒋虹.浅谈科技风险投资的风险因素及风险防范[J].现代商业,2010,9:42-44.
[40]张爽.北五味子产业基地项目财务评价与风险分析[D].吉林:长春理工大学硕士,2010:25-29.
[41]曹美溪.民营企业创业阶段面临的风险及其规避策略研究[J].现代经济信息,2010,16:98-99.
[42]李万庆,严冠卓,孟文清,马利华.企业经济效益的灰熵-AHM综合评价模型[J].河北建筑科技学院学报,2006,4(23):87-90.
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