房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响研究
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摘要
居民消费需求不足，房价过高是目前我国宏观经济的核心问题，就如何扩大国内居民有效需求、抑制房价的快速上涨显然已成为我国政府宏观调控工作的重点。房地产市场的快速发展，使得房地产业与经济增长和宏观经济稳定之间关系越来越紧密，其中一个重要渠道就是房价对居民消费的影响。但是，我国很多城市房价收入比过高、波动幅度较大，这不仅可能会抑制住房消费，而且可能已经出现了房地产泡沫。房地产泡沫的产生，会加大我国经济平稳发展的隐患，风险隐患可能从房地产领域传导至金融领域，引发金融危险，使银行的房地产信贷违约率提高和信用风险加大。一直以来，我国货币政策当局与经济学家对房地产价格波动表现出极大地关注与兴趣，关于房价波动对消费的影响由此成为大家纷纷研究的热点。目前为止，大多数研究基本上都认可了房价波动对居民消费具有显著的财富效应，而且这种财富效应比股市等其余金融资产的财富效应要大。不过也有一些学者对此提出质疑，他们认为住房本身就具有特殊性，它具有消费和投资的双重属性，如果把住房的消费品属性考虑进来，财富效应是否能发挥就不确定了。因此，研究房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响机理，不仅对房地产市场的健康发展，而且对改善居民生活水平与协调经济健康发展都具有重要理论和现实意义。
根据以往房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的相关文献，我们可知房价对居民消费的影响因研究对象的不同，选取样本及其运用方法的差异，结果具有很明显的不确定性特征。对于产生不确定性的原因，本文归纳为以下三点：第一，房价对消费影响的正向财富效应和负面挤出效应是相互影响甚至是相互抵消的，最终房价对消费的净效应取决于这两种效应的力量比较；第二，房价波动能否及时变现为流动性资产取决于抵押借贷成本的高低和信贷市场的发达程度，对于发展较为完善的信贷市场国家而言，房价波动对消费的影响可能更倾向于财富效应，但对于发展不完善的信贷市场国家来说，影响更倾向于负效应；第三，财富效应渠道和抵押效应渠道并不真正是由房价波动导致的结果，而是由其他影响房价和消费的共同因素，如收入、利率和信贷约束条件等的作用，导致房价和消费朝同一方向变动，才使得房价和消费表现出一定程度的正相关性。
因此，本文要研究房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响，就必须将这些不确定性因素考虑进来，才能更为准确地估计出房价对消费的真实影响。我们采取以下措施：第一，在消费效用函数中加入住房消费的影响，考虑住房的消费品属性；第二，在消费者实现消费最优化过程中，加入住房的资金约束和抵押约束条件，考虑住房的投资品属性；第三，将影响消费和房价的共同因素加入模型中，避免出现遗漏变量偏差问题。
基于此，与以往相关文献不同，本文不仅考虑了住房的投资品属性，还将住房的消费品属性考虑进来，在消费者跨期最优选择模型基础上，引入房价、住房面积以及消费习惯、借贷约束等相关变量，构建出在消费习惯、不确定性、流动性约束条件下，能够检验出房价波动对居民消费影响的动态面板模型，就房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响进行多层次分析。不仅探讨房价对我国城镇居民消费的整体影响效应，而且就房价波动对居民消费的影响效应是否存在非对称性也进行研究，同时还考察了房价波动对居民消费的中东西地区差异，以及是否存在门槛效应也展开了深入探讨。
兼顾考虑住房的投资品和消费品双重属性，对本文所构建的动态面板模型进行多层次的实证分析，研究发现：(1)我国城镇居民受到较强消费习惯与收入敏感性的影响。(2)考虑非对称效应时，房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响整体表现为财富效应，不过存在明显的非对称性，房价向上波动10%将使得居民消费支出增长0.263%,而房价向下波动10%将引起其相应下降0.208%。显然，城镇居民消费变化随房价上涨的幅度稍大于随其下降的幅度。(3)考虑地区性差异时，东西部地区房价波动对城镇居民消费表现为促进作用，房价每上涨10%，其相应的消费支出分别增长0.729%、0.054%；而中部地区与之相反，房价上涨对居民消费支出具有挤出效应，抑制其增长，房价每上涨10%，消费支出下降0.484%。显然，房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响表现出明显的地区差异性，影响差异不仅体现在强度上面，在影响方向上也有所反映，且差异会随着房价波动幅度的变化发生改变。(4)考虑门槛效应时，房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响存在门槛效应，即房价温和上涨推动财富升值，提振消费信心，而房价上涨过快将施与居民压力，引致当前消费减少。当房价涨幅小于门槛值13.31%时，对城镇居民消费的影响以财富效应为主导，且影响大小随房价涨幅呈先增大后减少的倒U形曲线特征，在临界值6.55%整体财富效应达到最大；若房价涨幅大于13.31%，挤出效应占据主导地位，且随房价进一步攀升更加明显。
The residents' insuffic ient consumptio n de mand, high hous ing price are the coreproble ms of our country's macroeconomic, on how to expand domestic effectivedema nd, curb the rapid increasing of hous ing price have obvious ly become the focusof the governme nt macroeconomic regulatio n and contro l in our country. The rapiddeve lopme nt of the real estate market, making the relations hip of real estate industrywith economic growth a nd macroeconomic stability become more c losed, one of theimportant channe ls is the influe nce of hous ing price to consumption. However,hous ing price rises so obvious ly that make the hous ing price to inco me ratio is high inmany c ities of our country, whic h not only inhib ite the hous ing consumption, but alsoaggravate the bubble of real estate price. The existe nce of real estate bubble will beaggravate the hidden risk to steadily deve lop about the economic, the risk fro m therea l estate sector may be spread to the fina ncia l sector, trigger fina nc ial risk, increasethe bank real estate credit defa ult rates and credit risk. For a long time, mo netaryauthorities and economists has s hown great interesting with price fluctuation of rea lestate, the relations hip about the m has become a research hotspot. So far, most studiesgenera lly found that the hous ing price to residents' consumption has a significantwealth effect, and the wea lth effect is b igger tha n the rest o f the financ ia l assets suchas stock market. But, there are also ha ve other sounds, they think the hous ing itse lfhas particular characteristics with the dua l nature of cons umption and investment, iftak ing the hous ing cons umption goods attrib ute into account, the wealth effect isuncerta in to pla y. Therefore, studying the impact mecha nis m of price fluctuation tourban residents' consumptio n, not only to the hea lthy deve lop ment o f the rea l estatemarket, but also to improve the residents' living standard and coordinating economichealthy developme nt ha ve important theoretical and practical s ignificance.
Based on past related literature of price fluctuation on res idents' consumptio n,we know the results have obvious characteristic of uncerta inty due to the d ifferencesof the research object, se lect sa mples and the method. For causes of the uncertainty,this artic le summarized as the three fo llowing po ints: first, the wealth effect and thecrowding-out effect about the impact of house price on cons umption are influenceeach other and even cance l out, the fina l net e ffect depends on the power of these twoeffects; Second, house price fluctuatio n can time ly liquidation of liq uid ity assets depends on borrowing costs of the d iscretion mortga ge and develop ment of creditmarket, for the deve lopment o f perfect credit ma rket, house price fluctuation oncons umptio n may be more inc lined to the wealth effect, but for imperfectdeve lopme nt of cred it market, the effect are more prone to negative effect; Third, thewealth e ffect channe l and the collatera l channel are not really caused by pricefluctuation, but by other common factors that affect the hous ing price andcons umptio n in the sa me direction, such as income, interest rates and creditconstra ints, which make house price and cons umptio n show certain degree of p ositivecorrelation.
Therefore, to study the effect of price fluctuatio n on China urban residents'cons umptio n, it is necessary to take these uncerta inties into account, so that we willbe more accurate ly estimate the rea l impact. Thus we take the following measures:First, adding the e ffect of ho us ing consumptio n into the consumption utility function,cons idering the hous ing consumption attribute; Second, in the process of optimizationto consumer cons umptio n, joining the conditio ns of hous ing funding constraints andmortga ge constra ints, cons idering the housing investment property; Third, adding thecommo n factors influe nc ing the consumption and hous ing price, avo iding the proble mof omitted variable bias.
Based on this, unlike the previous literature, this paper not only cons iders thehous ing investme nt property, but a lso takes the ho us ing consumptio n attrib ute intoaccount. we induce hous ing price, housing area, consumptio n habits, borrowingconstra ints, and other re lated variables into the consumption inter-temporal optima lselectio n model, establis he a dyna mic panel model which can test the effect out of thehouse price fluctuation to res idents' consumption, ana lyzing the multip le effectperspectives of house price impact on urban res idents' consumptio n in China,discuss ing the effect of price to overall of urban residents' consumption, and stud yingthe asymmetry impact of house price fluctuations on residents' consumption, what’smore, we also inspecte the regio na l differences about the house price fluctuation toresidents' consumptio n, as well as the thresho ld effect about the m.
Both cons idering the dua l attributes of hous ing investme nt and consumptio ngoods, this paper constructe a dyna mic pane l model to emp ir ical ana lys is formulti-leve l, the results shown that:(1)China's urban residents are affected by thestrong consumption habits and income sens itivity.(2)cons ider ing the asymmetriceffect of ho use price fluctuatio n impact on China urban residents' consumption, theoverall performance is the wealth effect, but shown obvio us asymmetry, house price upward fluctuation b y10%will enab le consumption spend ing increased by0.263%,downward the same percentage will cause consumption corresponding fa ll by0.208%.Obvious ly, the urban residents' consumption c hanges along with the price ris ingslightly greater than the decline.(3) considering the regio nal d ifferences, the effect ofhouse price fluctuation on urban residents' consumption is wealth effect in the easternand western regio nal, house price rises per10%, the correspond ing consumption willbe growth of0.729%,0.054%respective ly; by contrast, the impact of house price oncons umptio n shows crowding-out effect in the central regio n, house price rises per10%, the consumption will be drop by0.484%. Obvio us ly, the effect of house pricefluctuation o n China urban res idents' consumption s hown c lear regiona l d ifferences,the differences not only reflected in the intens io n, but also in the influence direction,and the differences will be changed as the range of house price volatility.(4)cons idering the thresho ld e ffect, the paper puts forward house price influe nc ingcons umptio n exists thresho ld effect, house price ris ing modestly promotes wealthapprec iatio n, boosts consumptio n confide nce; Price ris ing excess ive ly fast bringshuge pressure, causes current consumption to reduce. if ho use price rises less than13.31%, the impact of house price ris ing on consumption is do minated by the wealtheffect, with the increasing of ho use price the effect size shown inverted u-shapedcurve characteristic, the overall wealth effect reaches the maximum on the critica lvalue6.55%, if the margin of house price rising is greater than13.31%, the overalleffect appears crowding out effect with house price ris ing further more obvious effect.
根据以往房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的相关文献，我们可知房价对居民消费的影响因研究对象的不同，选取样本及其运用方法的差异，结果具有很明显的不确定性特征。对于产生不确定性的原因，本文归纳为以下三点：第一，房价对消费影响的正向财富效应和负面挤出效应是相互影响甚至是相互抵消的，最终房价对消费的净效应取决于这两种效应的力量比较；第二，房价波动能否及时变现为流动性资产取决于抵押借贷成本的高低和信贷市场的发达程度，对于发展较为完善的信贷市场国家而言，房价波动对消费的影响可能更倾向于财富效应，但对于发展不完善的信贷市场国家来说，影响更倾向于负效应；第三，财富效应渠道和抵押效应渠道并不真正是由房价波动导致的结果，而是由其他影响房价和消费的共同因素，如收入、利率和信贷约束条件等的作用，导致房价和消费朝同一方向变动，才使得房价和消费表现出一定程度的正相关性。
因此，本文要研究房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响，就必须将这些不确定性因素考虑进来，才能更为准确地估计出房价对消费的真实影响。我们采取以下措施：第一，在消费效用函数中加入住房消费的影响，考虑住房的消费品属性；第二，在消费者实现消费最优化过程中，加入住房的资金约束和抵押约束条件，考虑住房的投资品属性；第三，将影响消费和房价的共同因素加入模型中，避免出现遗漏变量偏差问题。
基于此，与以往相关文献不同，本文不仅考虑了住房的投资品属性，还将住房的消费品属性考虑进来，在消费者跨期最优选择模型基础上，引入房价、住房面积以及消费习惯、借贷约束等相关变量，构建出在消费习惯、不确定性、流动性约束条件下，能够检验出房价波动对居民消费影响的动态面板模型，就房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响进行多层次分析。不仅探讨房价对我国城镇居民消费的整体影响效应，而且就房价波动对居民消费的影响效应是否存在非对称性也进行研究，同时还考察了房价波动对居民消费的中东西地区差异，以及是否存在门槛效应也展开了深入探讨。
兼顾考虑住房的投资品和消费品双重属性，对本文所构建的动态面板模型进行多层次的实证分析，研究发现：(1)我国城镇居民受到较强消费习惯与收入敏感性的影响。(2)考虑非对称效应时，房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响整体表现为财富效应，不过存在明显的非对称性，房价向上波动10%将使得居民消费支出增长0.263%,而房价向下波动10%将引起其相应下降0.208%。显然，城镇居民消费变化随房价上涨的幅度稍大于随其下降的幅度。(3)考虑地区性差异时，东西部地区房价波动对城镇居民消费表现为促进作用，房价每上涨10%，其相应的消费支出分别增长0.729%、0.054%；而中部地区与之相反，房价上涨对居民消费支出具有挤出效应，抑制其增长，房价每上涨10%，消费支出下降0.484%。显然，房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响表现出明显的地区差异性，影响差异不仅体现在强度上面，在影响方向上也有所反映，且差异会随着房价波动幅度的变化发生改变。(4)考虑门槛效应时，房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响存在门槛效应，即房价温和上涨推动财富升值，提振消费信心，而房价上涨过快将施与居民压力，引致当前消费减少。当房价涨幅小于门槛值13.31%时，对城镇居民消费的影响以财富效应为主导，且影响大小随房价涨幅呈先增大后减少的倒U形曲线特征，在临界值6.55%整体财富效应达到最大；若房价涨幅大于13.31%，挤出效应占据主导地位，且随房价进一步攀升更加明显。
The residents' insuffic ient consumptio n de mand, high hous ing price are the coreproble ms of our country's macroeconomic, on how to expand domestic effectivedema nd, curb the rapid increasing of hous ing price have obvious ly become the focusof the governme nt macroeconomic regulatio n and contro l in our country. The rapiddeve lopme nt of the real estate market, making the relations hip of real estate industrywith economic growth a nd macroeconomic stability become more c losed, one of theimportant channe ls is the influe nce of hous ing price to consumption. However,hous ing price rises so obvious ly that make the hous ing price to inco me ratio is high inmany c ities of our country, whic h not only inhib ite the hous ing consumption, but alsoaggravate the bubble of real estate price. The existe nce of real estate bubble will beaggravate the hidden risk to steadily deve lop about the economic, the risk fro m therea l estate sector may be spread to the fina ncia l sector, trigger fina nc ial risk, increasethe bank real estate credit defa ult rates and credit risk. For a long time, mo netaryauthorities and economists has s hown great interesting with price fluctuation of rea lestate, the relations hip about the m has become a research hotspot. So far, most studiesgenera lly found that the hous ing price to residents' consumption has a significantwealth effect, and the wea lth effect is b igger tha n the rest o f the financ ia l assets suchas stock market. But, there are also ha ve other sounds, they think the hous ing itse lfhas particular characteristics with the dua l nature of cons umption and investment, iftak ing the hous ing cons umption goods attrib ute into account, the wealth effect isuncerta in to pla y. Therefore, studying the impact mecha nis m of price fluctuation tourban residents' consumptio n, not only to the hea lthy deve lop ment o f the rea l estatemarket, but also to improve the residents' living standard and coordinating economichealthy developme nt ha ve important theoretical and practical s ignificance.
Based on past related literature of price fluctuation on res idents' consumptio n,we know the results have obvious characteristic of uncerta inty due to the d ifferencesof the research object, se lect sa mples and the method. For causes of the uncertainty,this artic le summarized as the three fo llowing po ints: first, the wealth effect and thecrowding-out effect about the impact of house price on cons umption are influenceeach other and even cance l out, the fina l net e ffect depends on the power of these twoeffects; Second, house price fluctuatio n can time ly liquidation of liq uid ity assets depends on borrowing costs of the d iscretion mortga ge and develop ment of creditmarket, for the deve lopment o f perfect credit ma rket, house price fluctuation oncons umptio n may be more inc lined to the wealth effect, but for imperfectdeve lopme nt of cred it market, the effect are more prone to negative effect; Third, thewealth e ffect channe l and the collatera l channel are not really caused by pricefluctuation, but by other common factors that affect the hous ing price andcons umptio n in the sa me direction, such as income, interest rates and creditconstra ints, which make house price and cons umptio n show certain degree of p ositivecorrelation.
Therefore, to study the effect of price fluctuatio n on China urban residents'cons umptio n, it is necessary to take these uncerta inties into account, so that we willbe more accurate ly estimate the rea l impact. Thus we take the following measures:First, adding the e ffect of ho us ing consumptio n into the consumption utility function,cons idering the hous ing consumption attribute; Second, in the process of optimizationto consumer cons umptio n, joining the conditio ns of hous ing funding constraints andmortga ge constra ints, cons idering the housing investment property; Third, adding thecommo n factors influe nc ing the consumption and hous ing price, avo iding the proble mof omitted variable bias.
Based on this, unlike the previous literature, this paper not only cons iders thehous ing investme nt property, but a lso takes the ho us ing consumptio n attrib ute intoaccount. we induce hous ing price, housing area, consumptio n habits, borrowingconstra ints, and other re lated variables into the consumption inter-temporal optima lselectio n model, establis he a dyna mic panel model which can test the effect out of thehouse price fluctuation to res idents' consumption, ana lyzing the multip le effectperspectives of house price impact on urban res idents' consumptio n in China,discuss ing the effect of price to overall of urban residents' consumption, and stud yingthe asymmetry impact of house price fluctuations on residents' consumption, what’smore, we also inspecte the regio na l differences about the house price fluctuation toresidents' consumptio n, as well as the thresho ld effect about the m.
Both cons idering the dua l attributes of hous ing investme nt and consumptio ngoods, this paper constructe a dyna mic pane l model to emp ir ical ana lys is formulti-leve l, the results shown that:(1)China's urban residents are affected by thestrong consumption habits and income sens itivity.(2)cons ider ing the asymmetriceffect of ho use price fluctuatio n impact on China urban residents' consumption, theoverall performance is the wealth effect, but shown obvio us asymmetry, house price upward fluctuation b y10%will enab le consumption spend ing increased by0.263%,downward the same percentage will cause consumption corresponding fa ll by0.208%.Obvious ly, the urban residents' consumption c hanges along with the price ris ingslightly greater than the decline.(3) considering the regio nal d ifferences, the effect ofhouse price fluctuation on urban residents' consumption is wealth effect in the easternand western regio nal, house price rises per10%, the correspond ing consumption willbe growth of0.729%,0.054%respective ly; by contrast, the impact of house price oncons umptio n shows crowding-out effect in the central regio n, house price rises per10%, the consumption will be drop by0.484%. Obvio us ly, the effect of house pricefluctuation o n China urban res idents' consumption s hown c lear regiona l d ifferences,the differences not only reflected in the intens io n, but also in the influence direction,and the differences will be changed as the range of house price volatility.(4)cons idering the thresho ld e ffect, the paper puts forward house price influe nc ingcons umptio n exists thresho ld effect, house price ris ing modestly promotes wealthapprec iatio n, boosts consumptio n confide nce; Price ris ing excess ive ly fast bringshuge pressure, causes current consumption to reduce. if ho use price rises less than13.31%, the impact of house price ris ing on consumption is do minated by the wealtheffect, with the increasing of ho use price the effect size shown inverted u-shapedcurve characteristic, the overall wealth effect reaches the maximum on the critica lvalue6.55%, if the margin of house price rising is greater than13.31%, the overalleffect appears crowding out effect with house price ris ing further more obvious effect.
引文
①数据根据历年《中国统计年鉴》数据整理计算所得，下同。
①不少研究如李文星等(2008)[103]、王学义、张冲(2013)[104]等就专门从人口年龄结构的变动来寻求我国居民消费需求不足的原因。因此，我们在模型中加入抚养系数尽量减少遗漏变量偏差问题。
①根据历年《中国统计年鉴》数据整理得出，下同。
①注：数据来源于历年的《中国统计年鉴》和31个省市的统计年鉴数据计算所得。
①本章是在《统计研究》文章《房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响研究》基础上完成的。
①1998年的住房制度改革，使得1998年之后房地产才开始市场化。黄静、屠梅曾(2009)[51]就特别强调要使用房改以后的数据。韩丽鹏等(2010)[69]、高波、王辉龙(2011)[125]均是采取房改之后的数据。
①抚养系数的影响系数小说明我国人口年龄结构变化并不是目前居民消费过低的原因。(李文星等,2008[103])
①本章是在《统计研究》文章《房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响研究》基础上完成的。
①况伟大(2011)[61]计算得出2008年我国35个大中城市房价收入比高达7.43，大于根据世界银行(1992)房价收入比4-6倍的经验数据，认为高房价收入比抑制了我国住房消费，而且产生了房价泡沫，并指出中等收入者难以承受如此之高的房价水平。一些学者甚至指出，北京、上海等一线城市的房价收入比超过20以上(白彦锋，2012)[134]。
①根据历年《中国统计年鉴》数据整理得出，下同。
①刘宗明(2012)[78]认为财政分权增加了地方政府对土地财政的依赖，地方政府在单位土地上期望更高的价格，而地价的提高导致房地产开发成本增加，进而推动房价上涨。
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①不少研究如李文星等(2008)[103]、王学义、张冲(2013)[104]等就专门从人口年龄结构的变动来寻求我国居民消费需求不足的原因。因此，我们在模型中加入抚养系数尽量减少遗漏变量偏差问题。
①根据历年《中国统计年鉴》数据整理得出，下同。
①注：数据来源于历年的《中国统计年鉴》和31个省市的统计年鉴数据计算所得。
①本章是在《统计研究》文章《房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响研究》基础上完成的。
①1998年的住房制度改革，使得1998年之后房地产才开始市场化。黄静、屠梅曾(2009)[51]就特别强调要使用房改以后的数据。韩丽鹏等(2010)[69]、高波、王辉龙(2011)[125]均是采取房改之后的数据。
①抚养系数的影响系数小说明我国人口年龄结构变化并不是目前居民消费过低的原因。(李文星等,2008[103])
①本章是在《统计研究》文章《房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响研究》基础上完成的。
①况伟大(2011)[61]计算得出2008年我国35个大中城市房价收入比高达7.43，大于根据世界银行(1992)房价收入比4-6倍的经验数据，认为高房价收入比抑制了我国住房消费，而且产生了房价泡沫，并指出中等收入者难以承受如此之高的房价水平。一些学者甚至指出，北京、上海等一线城市的房价收入比超过20以上(白彦锋，2012)[134]。
①根据历年《中国统计年鉴》数据整理得出，下同。
①刘宗明(2012)[78]认为财政分权增加了地方政府对土地财政的依赖，地方政府在单位土地上期望更高的价格，而地价的提高导致房地产开发成本增加，进而推动房价上涨。
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