中国对外贸易的环境效应研究
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摘要
随着贸易自由化的不断推进，贸易与环境问题越来越受到经济学界的关注，环保主义者与贸易政策制定者对于贸易自由化的环境影响争论不休。在我国经济保持高速增长过程中，对外贸易起到了重要的推动作用，但长期以来粗放型贸易增长方式带来的环境污染问题凸现，贸易扩张与环境污染间的矛盾不断激化。在当前全球关注气候变化和减排的大背景下，如何平衡贸易收益和环境成本，加快贸易增长方式的调整，促进贸易与环境的协调发展成为我国面临的一项重要课题。
本文在梳理了国内外现有研究的基础上，围绕我国对外贸易的环境效应展开了较为系统的理论分析和实证检验。首先通过构建贸易与环境的一般均衡模型，对贸易影响环境污染的作用机制和渠道进行理论上的探索，为后续实证研究奠定理论基础；进而选取相关数据对我国贸易开放与环境污染的现状从总量规模、行业分布、区域分布以及不同贸易方式方面进行描述性统计分析；接着基于时间序列数据和省际面板数据对我国贸易自由化的环境效应进行了实证检验；再基于（进口）非竞争型投入产出表对我国进出口贸易隐含污染排放从总量、行业层面和不同贸易伙伴层面分别进行了测算，并对其影响因素进行了结构分解分析（SDA），从不同角度全面揭示我国对外贸易的环境成本；最后基于上述结论为我国实现贸易发展与环境保护“双赢”提出了若干政策建议。本文主要内容和研究结论如下：
首先，建立贸易与环境的一般均衡模型，将贸易的环境效应分解为规模、技术和结构效应，并对贸易引致的结构效应进行重点分析。研究表明结构效应主要取决于一国的比较优势，因不同国家属于污染密集型产品的出口国或进口国而变化。而比较优势由相对要素禀赋和相对环境规制差异共同决定，由两种不同因素决定的比较优势所形成的贸易模式导致的环境效应不同且作用方向相反，贸易自由化对环境的结构效应最终取决于要素禀赋效应和环境规制效应的相对大小。
其次，我国对外贸易与环境污染的描述性统计分析发现，我国污染排放总量与贸易规模间存在一定的相关性，且污染排放与贸易开放的行业分布、地区分布均存在明显的不均衡。加工贸易份额较高的特征一定程度加剧了环境质量的恶化。
再次，基于VAR模型运用我国1980－2010年对外贸易规模与工业三废污染排放指标进行的实证研究表明两者之间存在正向协整关系，说明对外贸易规模的持续扩张增加了对国内有限资源的消耗以及污染排放，造成了负向的环境效应。而加工贸易与工业三废污染排放的实证结果也同样显示加工贸易依存度与环境污染之间存在长期正向的协整关系。基于省际面板数据的实证结果表明贸易开放度是影响环境质量的重要变量，贸易引致的结构效应估计结果在一定程度上能证实要素禀赋效应和环境规制效应的共同作用，但估计结果随污染指标及其度量方式的变化而不同。贸易引致的结构效应弹性相对较小，结合贸易自由化对环境污染的规模、技术和结构效应，大多污染指标的贸易综合效应并不确定。
进而采用投入产出法对我国贸易中以隐含污染排放体现的环境成本进行了测算，并评估了污染贸易条件的变动、进出口隐含污染排放的行业分布以及与不同贸易伙伴间的贸易隐含污染状况；利用SDA法将1997－2007年我国进出口隐含污染排放变动分解为直接排放系数、中间生产技术、进出口结构和进出口规模四大影响因素。结果表明我国是净出口隐含工业废水、工业二氧化硫、工业烟尘和工业粉尘顺差国，大量工业污染排放是隐含在出口贸易中为国外消费者排放的，大幅贸易顺差与“生态逆差”并存。从污染贸易条件的对比来看，2007年大多污染指标的PTT值均出现不同程度的恶化。同时，我国进出口隐含污染排放的行业分布集中化程度较高，以美国、中国香港、日本和欧盟为代表的主要贸易伙伴成为我国出口隐含污染排放的主要受益者。从结构分解结果来看，进出口规模效应是促使我国进出口隐含污染排放量增长的最主要动因，而各行业污染直接排放系数的大幅改善（技术效应）则是抑制我国出口隐含污染增加和降低进口污染减排量的主要因素；中间生产技术的影响不太确定，而由进出口结构变动带来的结构效应影响相对较弱。
最后，在权衡贸易收益和环境成本的综合考虑下，分别从国际、国家、地区以及行业层面对我国贸易与环境的协调发展提出了有针对性的政策建议。根据进出口贸易隐含污染排放的分行业估算结果，对各行业的贸易活动归类为“鼓励类”、“允许类”、“调整类”和“限制类”，为我国贸易结构的调整升级提供了切实可行的参考建议。
With the continuous development of trade liberalization, the issue of trade andenvironment has aroused more and more attention in the economics circle.Environmentalists and trade policy-makers have disputed for years over the environmentalimpact of trade liberalization. During the continuous rapid economic growth in China,foreign trade has played an important role, but meanwhile the serious environmentalpollution caused by the long-term extensive trade growth pattern has been aggravated,thus the contradictions between trade expansion and environmental pollution has also beenintensified. In the current context of global concern about climate change and emissionreduction, how to balance the trade benefits and environmental costs, to speed up theadjustment of trade growth mode and promote the coordinated development of trade andenvironment becomes an important task in China.
The dissertation carries out a systematic theoretical and empirical analysis on theenvironmental effects of international trade in China based on the literature review ofexisting domestic and foreign related researches. Firstly, the dissertation explores themechanism and channels of environmental effects caused by trade theoretically with thegeneral equilibrium model on trade and the environment, laying the theoretical foundationfor the follow-up empirical research. Secondly, descriptive statistical analysis has beenmade on the current situation of trade openness and environmental pollution in China fromdifferent aspects of total scale, industry distribution, regional distribution and differenttrade modes using relevant data. Thirdly, the dissertation analyzes the environmentalimpact of trade liberalization in China empirically based on the time series data andinter-provincial panel data. Furthermore, trade-embodied pollution emissions have beencalculated from the perspectives of total amount, industry distribution and foreign tradebetween major trading partners based on non-competitive (import) input-output tables andthe change in the emissions embodied in imports and exports has been decomposed intodifferent factors by structure decomposition analysis. Finally, the dissertation puts forwardseveral policy advices for the realization of “win-win” of trade development andenvironmental protection based on the theoretical and empirical conclusions.
The dissertation mainly includes the following contents and conclusions:
Firstly, the dissertation has set up the general equilibrium model of trade and the environment and decomposed the environmental effects of trade into scale, technique andcomposition effects focusing on the trade-induced composition effects. The analysis showsthe composition effects mainly depend on the comparative advantages in a country andvary for the pollution-intensive exporters or importers. Comparative advantages are jointlydetermined by the differences in relative factor endowments and relative environmentalregulations, and the environmental effects of different trade pattern caused by comparativeadvantages based on different factors provide opposing forces. Therefore thetrade-induced composition effects finally depend on the relative degree of factorendowment effects and environmental regulation effects.
Secondly, the dissertation has made a descriptive statistical analysis of foreign tradeand environment in China and the results imply that there is a correlation between totalpollution emissions and trade volume and obvious imbalance occurs in both the industrialdistribution and regional distribution of trade and pollution emissions. The relatively highratio of processing trade aggravates the deterioration of environmental quality to someextent.
Thirdly, the empirical analysis of foreign trade and industrial pollution emissionsbased on VAR model shows that there is a positive cointegration relationship betweenindustrial waste water, industrial gas, industrial solid waste and trade scale, implying thatthe continuous expansion of trade scale increases the consumption of limited domesticresources as well as pollution emissions, resulting in negative environmental effects.Furthermore, the empirical results show that a long-term positive cointegration relationbetween processing trade dependence and industrial pollution emissions is also observed,which means China’s rapid development of processing trade is also a major cause of thedeterioration of environmental quality. The empirical analysis using provincial panel dataindicates that trade openness is the important factor affecting environmental quality andthe estimation results of trade-induced composition effects confirm factor endowmenteffects and environmental regulation effects to some degree, but the estimations vary withdifferent pollutant index and measurements. Relatively speaking, the elasticities fortrade-induced composition effects are small and the comprehensive environmental effectswith the combination of scale, technique and composition effects is uncertain for mostpollutants.
Fourthly, using the input-output method the dissertation the dissertation has assessedthe environmental costs in the form of trade-embodied pollution emission and evaluated the changes in pollution terms of trade (PTT), the industry distribution of pollutionemissions embodied in imports and exports and embodied emission with different tradingpartners. Furthermore, the changes in trade-embodied emissions during1997-2007havebeen decomposed into direct pollution intensity, intermediate production technology,import and export structure and trade scale. The results show that China is a net exporterof embodied industrial waste water, industrial sulfur dioxide, industrial soot and industrialdust, which means a large amount of industrial pollution emission is caused for theconsumption of foreign consumers, revealing the existence of both massive trade surplusand ecological deficit. From the comparison of pollution terms of trade, most PTT indexesin2007were deteriorated to different degrees. Meanwhile the industry distribution ofpollution emissions embodied in imports and exports demonstrates high degree ofcentralization and major trading partners with China represented by USA, Hong Kong,Japan and EU have become the main beneficiaries of China’s export-embodied emission.Decomposition by SDA shows that import and export scale is undoubtedly the mostimportant driver of embodied emission growth and the substantial decrease of directpollution intensity offset part of the increased emissions. While the effects of intermediateproduction technology are uncertain, composition effects brought by the changes in importand export structure are relatively weak.
Finally, in the consideration of weighing trade gains and environmental costs, thedissertation has presented some policy suggestions to promote the coordinateddevelopment of trade and environment in China from international, national, regional andindustrial perspectives respectively. According to the estimation of trade-embodiedpollution emissions, trade activities in various industries have been classified into fourcategories including “encouraged”,“permitted”,“adjusted” and “restricted” to provideclassified guidance for the adjustment and upgrading of trade structure.
本文在梳理了国内外现有研究的基础上，围绕我国对外贸易的环境效应展开了较为系统的理论分析和实证检验。首先通过构建贸易与环境的一般均衡模型，对贸易影响环境污染的作用机制和渠道进行理论上的探索，为后续实证研究奠定理论基础；进而选取相关数据对我国贸易开放与环境污染的现状从总量规模、行业分布、区域分布以及不同贸易方式方面进行描述性统计分析；接着基于时间序列数据和省际面板数据对我国贸易自由化的环境效应进行了实证检验；再基于（进口）非竞争型投入产出表对我国进出口贸易隐含污染排放从总量、行业层面和不同贸易伙伴层面分别进行了测算，并对其影响因素进行了结构分解分析（SDA），从不同角度全面揭示我国对外贸易的环境成本；最后基于上述结论为我国实现贸易发展与环境保护“双赢”提出了若干政策建议。本文主要内容和研究结论如下：
首先，建立贸易与环境的一般均衡模型，将贸易的环境效应分解为规模、技术和结构效应，并对贸易引致的结构效应进行重点分析。研究表明结构效应主要取决于一国的比较优势，因不同国家属于污染密集型产品的出口国或进口国而变化。而比较优势由相对要素禀赋和相对环境规制差异共同决定，由两种不同因素决定的比较优势所形成的贸易模式导致的环境效应不同且作用方向相反，贸易自由化对环境的结构效应最终取决于要素禀赋效应和环境规制效应的相对大小。
其次，我国对外贸易与环境污染的描述性统计分析发现，我国污染排放总量与贸易规模间存在一定的相关性，且污染排放与贸易开放的行业分布、地区分布均存在明显的不均衡。加工贸易份额较高的特征一定程度加剧了环境质量的恶化。
再次，基于VAR模型运用我国1980－2010年对外贸易规模与工业三废污染排放指标进行的实证研究表明两者之间存在正向协整关系，说明对外贸易规模的持续扩张增加了对国内有限资源的消耗以及污染排放，造成了负向的环境效应。而加工贸易与工业三废污染排放的实证结果也同样显示加工贸易依存度与环境污染之间存在长期正向的协整关系。基于省际面板数据的实证结果表明贸易开放度是影响环境质量的重要变量，贸易引致的结构效应估计结果在一定程度上能证实要素禀赋效应和环境规制效应的共同作用，但估计结果随污染指标及其度量方式的变化而不同。贸易引致的结构效应弹性相对较小，结合贸易自由化对环境污染的规模、技术和结构效应，大多污染指标的贸易综合效应并不确定。
进而采用投入产出法对我国贸易中以隐含污染排放体现的环境成本进行了测算，并评估了污染贸易条件的变动、进出口隐含污染排放的行业分布以及与不同贸易伙伴间的贸易隐含污染状况；利用SDA法将1997－2007年我国进出口隐含污染排放变动分解为直接排放系数、中间生产技术、进出口结构和进出口规模四大影响因素。结果表明我国是净出口隐含工业废水、工业二氧化硫、工业烟尘和工业粉尘顺差国，大量工业污染排放是隐含在出口贸易中为国外消费者排放的，大幅贸易顺差与“生态逆差”并存。从污染贸易条件的对比来看，2007年大多污染指标的PTT值均出现不同程度的恶化。同时，我国进出口隐含污染排放的行业分布集中化程度较高，以美国、中国香港、日本和欧盟为代表的主要贸易伙伴成为我国出口隐含污染排放的主要受益者。从结构分解结果来看，进出口规模效应是促使我国进出口隐含污染排放量增长的最主要动因，而各行业污染直接排放系数的大幅改善（技术效应）则是抑制我国出口隐含污染增加和降低进口污染减排量的主要因素；中间生产技术的影响不太确定，而由进出口结构变动带来的结构效应影响相对较弱。
最后，在权衡贸易收益和环境成本的综合考虑下，分别从国际、国家、地区以及行业层面对我国贸易与环境的协调发展提出了有针对性的政策建议。根据进出口贸易隐含污染排放的分行业估算结果，对各行业的贸易活动归类为“鼓励类”、“允许类”、“调整类”和“限制类”，为我国贸易结构的调整升级提供了切实可行的参考建议。
With the continuous development of trade liberalization, the issue of trade andenvironment has aroused more and more attention in the economics circle.Environmentalists and trade policy-makers have disputed for years over the environmentalimpact of trade liberalization. During the continuous rapid economic growth in China,foreign trade has played an important role, but meanwhile the serious environmentalpollution caused by the long-term extensive trade growth pattern has been aggravated,thus the contradictions between trade expansion and environmental pollution has also beenintensified. In the current context of global concern about climate change and emissionreduction, how to balance the trade benefits and environmental costs, to speed up theadjustment of trade growth mode and promote the coordinated development of trade andenvironment becomes an important task in China.
The dissertation carries out a systematic theoretical and empirical analysis on theenvironmental effects of international trade in China based on the literature review ofexisting domestic and foreign related researches. Firstly, the dissertation explores themechanism and channels of environmental effects caused by trade theoretically with thegeneral equilibrium model on trade and the environment, laying the theoretical foundationfor the follow-up empirical research. Secondly, descriptive statistical analysis has beenmade on the current situation of trade openness and environmental pollution in China fromdifferent aspects of total scale, industry distribution, regional distribution and differenttrade modes using relevant data. Thirdly, the dissertation analyzes the environmentalimpact of trade liberalization in China empirically based on the time series data andinter-provincial panel data. Furthermore, trade-embodied pollution emissions have beencalculated from the perspectives of total amount, industry distribution and foreign tradebetween major trading partners based on non-competitive (import) input-output tables andthe change in the emissions embodied in imports and exports has been decomposed intodifferent factors by structure decomposition analysis. Finally, the dissertation puts forwardseveral policy advices for the realization of “win-win” of trade development andenvironmental protection based on the theoretical and empirical conclusions.
The dissertation mainly includes the following contents and conclusions:
Firstly, the dissertation has set up the general equilibrium model of trade and the environment and decomposed the environmental effects of trade into scale, technique andcomposition effects focusing on the trade-induced composition effects. The analysis showsthe composition effects mainly depend on the comparative advantages in a country andvary for the pollution-intensive exporters or importers. Comparative advantages are jointlydetermined by the differences in relative factor endowments and relative environmentalregulations, and the environmental effects of different trade pattern caused by comparativeadvantages based on different factors provide opposing forces. Therefore thetrade-induced composition effects finally depend on the relative degree of factorendowment effects and environmental regulation effects.
Secondly, the dissertation has made a descriptive statistical analysis of foreign tradeand environment in China and the results imply that there is a correlation between totalpollution emissions and trade volume and obvious imbalance occurs in both the industrialdistribution and regional distribution of trade and pollution emissions. The relatively highratio of processing trade aggravates the deterioration of environmental quality to someextent.
Thirdly, the empirical analysis of foreign trade and industrial pollution emissionsbased on VAR model shows that there is a positive cointegration relationship betweenindustrial waste water, industrial gas, industrial solid waste and trade scale, implying thatthe continuous expansion of trade scale increases the consumption of limited domesticresources as well as pollution emissions, resulting in negative environmental effects.Furthermore, the empirical results show that a long-term positive cointegration relationbetween processing trade dependence and industrial pollution emissions is also observed,which means China’s rapid development of processing trade is also a major cause of thedeterioration of environmental quality. The empirical analysis using provincial panel dataindicates that trade openness is the important factor affecting environmental quality andthe estimation results of trade-induced composition effects confirm factor endowmenteffects and environmental regulation effects to some degree, but the estimations vary withdifferent pollutant index and measurements. Relatively speaking, the elasticities fortrade-induced composition effects are small and the comprehensive environmental effectswith the combination of scale, technique and composition effects is uncertain for mostpollutants.
Fourthly, using the input-output method the dissertation the dissertation has assessedthe environmental costs in the form of trade-embodied pollution emission and evaluated the changes in pollution terms of trade (PTT), the industry distribution of pollutionemissions embodied in imports and exports and embodied emission with different tradingpartners. Furthermore, the changes in trade-embodied emissions during1997-2007havebeen decomposed into direct pollution intensity, intermediate production technology,import and export structure and trade scale. The results show that China is a net exporterof embodied industrial waste water, industrial sulfur dioxide, industrial soot and industrialdust, which means a large amount of industrial pollution emission is caused for theconsumption of foreign consumers, revealing the existence of both massive trade surplusand ecological deficit. From the comparison of pollution terms of trade, most PTT indexesin2007were deteriorated to different degrees. Meanwhile the industry distribution ofpollution emissions embodied in imports and exports demonstrates high degree ofcentralization and major trading partners with China represented by USA, Hong Kong,Japan and EU have become the main beneficiaries of China’s export-embodied emission.Decomposition by SDA shows that import and export scale is undoubtedly the mostimportant driver of embodied emission growth and the substantial decrease of directpollution intensity offset part of the increased emissions. While the effects of intermediateproduction technology are uncertain, composition effects brought by the changes in importand export structure are relatively weak.
Finally, in the consideration of weighing trade gains and environmental costs, thedissertation has presented some policy suggestions to promote the coordinateddevelopment of trade and environment in China from international, national, regional andindustrial perspectives respectively. According to the estimation of trade-embodiedpollution emissions, trade activities in various industries have been classified into fourcategories including “encouraged”,“permitted”,“adjusted” and “restricted” to provideclassified guidance for the adjustment and upgrading of trade structure.
引文
②详见李怀政.国际贸易与环境问题溯源及其研究进展,国际贸易问题,2009（4）。
①关于经济增长与环境污染的相关文献综述参见张娟.经济增长与工业污染:基于中国城市面板数据的实证研究,贵州财经学院学报,2012(4)。
①关于“污染避难所效应”与“污染避难所假说”的讨论参看Copeland, B. R., Taylor, M. S.. Trade, Growth, and theEnvironment[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,2004(42).
①详见《2011年中国环境状况公报》。
①易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社.2008年版.
①易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社.2008年版.
①详见Dietzenbacher, E.,Los B. Structural Decomposition Techniques: Sense and Sensitivity. Economic SystemResearch,1998,10(4).
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①关于经济增长与环境污染的相关文献综述参见张娟.经济增长与工业污染:基于中国城市面板数据的实证研究,贵州财经学院学报,2012(4)。
①关于“污染避难所效应”与“污染避难所假说”的讨论参看Copeland, B. R., Taylor, M. S.. Trade, Growth, and theEnvironment[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,2004(42).
①详见《2011年中国环境状况公报》。
①易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社.2008年版.
①易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社.2008年版.
①详见Dietzenbacher, E.,Los B. Structural Decomposition Techniques: Sense and Sensitivity. Economic SystemResearch,1998,10(4).
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