多热源联合供热系统调峰方式及综合优化研究
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摘要
近年来我国采暖热负荷增长迅速，采暖能耗占建筑总能耗的比例逐年提高，集中供热导致的季节性大气污染问题也日益严重。为改善现状，在我国能源结构调整的背景下，多热源联合供热系统逐渐得到更多的应用。但我国对多热源联合供热系统的技术研究存在一定的滞后，在系统的选择和设计方面尚缺乏系统的综合优化理论和决策模型。对此，本文在分析几种常见多热源联合供热系统形式和特点的基础上，建立了其热平衡方程，讨论了它们的运行调节方式，分析了调节方式对系统设计和运行的影响，考虑了经济、技术、能源和环境等指标对系统性能的影响，并将随机可接受性分析(SMAA)理论引入到多热源联合供热的综合优化研究中。
文中分析了几种常见多热源联合供热系统形式、连接方式及特点，建立了二级网全部热力站等比例调峰和一级网集中燃气和燃煤锅炉调峰多热源联合供热系统的热平衡方程，对它们的优化运行调节方式进行了研究。结果表明一级网纯质调节不能满足多热源联合供热系统的运行调节要求。建立了以费用年值为目标函数的多热源联合供热系统技术经济分析模型和基于能质系数的能耗分析模型，研究了调节方式对多热源联合供热系统初投资和运行费用的影响，以及多种调峰方式的经济性及能耗随基本负荷比β值的变化趋势。
探讨了二级网部分热力站调峰联合供热系统运行调节和负荷调度遵循的一般规律，结果表明该系统应采用质量-流量综合调节的方法进行供热调节，调峰开始后用改变热力站间流量分配的手段进行负荷调度。针对新建和改扩建的二级网部分热力站燃气锅炉调峰联合供热系统，分别给出了确定调峰锅炉的设置位置和容量及系统最优基本负荷比的方法。比较了二级网全部热力站燃气锅炉等比例调峰和部分热力站燃气锅炉调峰方案的优劣。
建立了一种新型的基于最新大气扩散模式AERMOD的多热源联合供热系统热源环境影响模拟和评价模型，考虑了热源和人口分布的影响，在模拟污染物扩散空间分布的基础上，提出综合反映供热系统热源大气环境影响的指标——污染物平均空间分布(MSD)。利用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的统计数据库和计算方法讨论多热源联合供热系统的温室气体CO_2减排潜力。将上述模型应用到几种常见多热源联合供热系统形式中，研究二级网全部热力站燃气锅炉等比例调峰和部分热力站燃气锅炉调峰，一级网集中燃气和燃煤锅炉调峰的大气环境影响，并比较集中和分布式燃气锅炉调峰对大气环境影响的区别。
建立了多热源联合供热系统综合优化指标体系，引入基于互补判断矩阵的模糊层次分析法来计算指标权重。为克服采用单一权重向量对权重判断信息利用不足的缺点，提出权重可行域的概念，将传统的权重向量扩展到权重空间。
最后，基于SMAA开展了多热源联合供热系统的综合优化。建立了可同时处理定量和定性问题的SMAA-2和SMAA-O有机结合模型，采用Monte-Carlo法模拟具有特定概率密度的指标和权重分布，通过计算各方案的相关统计量，如全局可接受性指标、效用函数、排序可接受性指标、中心权重向量、置信因子和交叉置信因子等进行综合优化，并分析了各方案对所有指标的部分效用函数，研究了不同指标对供热方案效用函数的贡献程度。利用上述模型研究以燃煤锅炉房为基本热源的多热源联合供热系统的调峰方式综合优化。基于SMAA的多指标综合优化不仅给出了指标表现值分布和权重可行域内可能的最优方案，还给出了这些方案达到最优的中心权重向量和概率，采用了交叉置信因子来进一步区分比较相近的方案，根据全局可接受性指标对方案进行排序，增强了综合优化结论的合理性和可靠性。
本文在总结几种常见多热源联合供热系统形式的基础上，给出了不同系统设计及运行工况的相关参数计算方法，分别建立了各种系统的热平衡方程，在此基础上，深入研究了它们的调节方式及其对多热源联合供热系统的设计和运行的影响。系统分析了影响多热源联合供热系统性能的各种影响因素，并从经济、技术、能源及环境等方面对多热源联合供热系统进行了综合优化。本研究可以为今后多热源联合供热系统的规划和设计提供一定的理论基础，并为系统的合理运行起到一定的参考作用。
The district heating (DH) load in China has been increasing rapidly in recent years;the proportion of energy consumption in DH sector with respect to the total buildingenergy demand has also been growing year by year and the seasonal ambient airpollution issue posed by DH is becoming worse. In order to improve the currentsituation and under the background of energy structure reformation in China, combineddistrict heating systems are proposed and utilized in DH more extensively. However, thetechnical researches on the combined district heating system fall behind the currentrequirements; systematic multicriteria comprehensive optimization and decision makingmodels still need improving to guide the planning and retrofitting of the systems. Inview of this, the dissertation analyzes the peak-shaving heating modes andcharacteristics of different combined district heating systems; establishes their heatbalance equations; and discusses the regulation ways and their influences on the systemdesign and operation. This study also establishes a comprehensive optimization indexsystem from economic, technological, energetic and environmental points of views; andbased on the index system, stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) isintroduced for the comprehensive optimization of combined district heating systems.
The dissertation studies some of the most common combined district heatingmodes, their system connections and characteristics; establishes the heat balanceequations and optimizes the regulation ways for the combined district heating systemswith small decentralized gas-fired boilers proportionally setting in heating substations insecondary network and with large-scale centralized gas-or coal-fired boilers in primarynetwork. The results show that pure quality regulation method doesn’t satisfy theregulation requirements in the primary network of the combined district heating systems.In addition, the economic and energy analyses models are developed based on annualcost method and energy quality factor, respectively. The influences of regulation wayson initial investments&operation costs and the variations of economic and energyperformances with β value for different peak-shaving modes are also studied.
As to the combined district heating system with partial substations settingpeak-shaving gas-fired boilers, this study discusses the common principles that shouldbe followed in operation regulation and heat load dispatch. The results indicates thatquality and quantity comprehensive regulation method should be used in such kind ofcombined district heating systems and heat load dispatch be carried out by the mannersof changing the flowrate allocation in different heating substations when peak heating begins. The models for determining setting positions and capacities of peak-shavinggas-fired boilers for newly-built and retrofitted combined district heating systems withpartial peak heating are proposed. Besides, the dissertation also compares the economicand energy performances for combined district heating systems with proportional peakheating in all substations and with partial peak heating based on the abovementionedmodels.
This study presents a novel atmospheric environmental impact assessment andsimulation model for the combined district heating systems based on the air dispersionmodel of AERMOD. This model incorporates the factors from the deployment of heatsources at different β and population distribution. On the basis of modeling the groundlevel concentrations (GLCs) for different local pollutants, mean spatial distributions(MSD) of pollutants are proposed to quantitatively determine the atmosphericenvironmental impacts from the heat sources of the combined district heating system. Inaddition, IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang) scenarios and databasesare used to calculate the CO2emissions from combined district heating systems; CO2emission reduction effect is then illustrated. In addition, the atmospheric environmentalimpacts of combined district heating systems with all substations proportionally settinggas-fired boilers and with partial substations setting gas-fired boilers in secondarynetwork, as well as with large-scale gas-and coal-fired boiler in primary network arestudied using aforementioned model too. Finally the atmospheric environmentalimpacts of centralized and decentralized gas peak heating modes are also comparedusing the same model.
The multicriteria optimization index system for the combined district heatingsystem is established and criteria weight vectors are calculated using fuzzy analyticalhierarchy process (FAHP). In order to overcome the shortcomings of using a singleweight vector that may cause judgment information loss, the dissertation brings forwardthe concept of criteria feasible weight space, which extends the traditional weight vectorto weight space.
Finally, the study conducts the multicriteria comprehensive optimization of thecombined heating system using SMAA; first establishes an integrated model combinedwith SMAA-2and SMAA-O which can simultaneously deal with quantitative andqualitative decision problems; then employs Monte-Carlo simulation technique toproduce the criteria measurements and weights according to their stochasticdistributions and to calculate statistic variables e.g., holistic acceptability indices, utilityfunctions, rank acceptability indices, central weight vectors, confidence and crossconfidence factors. On this basis, the partial utility functions respect to each criterion can be calculated to determine their contributions to the total utility function of eachcombined district heating alternative. Then, the model is used in the comprehensiveoptimization of a coal-fired boiler based combined district heating system. Theproposed multicriteria comprehensive optimization framework based on SMAA notonly supplies the ranking of combined heating alternatives considering the stochasticdistributions of criteria and feasible weight space, but also indicates the central weightvectors and the possibilities that they reach the optimal; furthermore, uses crossconfidence factors to differentiate alternatives that are very close to each other, andfinally ranks the alternatives using holistic acceptability indices, which enhance thereasonability and reliability of the multicriteria comprehensive optimization.
To conclude, the dissertation studied several common combined district heatingsystems; showed the calculation of relevant heating parameters in design and operationstages; established heat balance equations for different combined district heatingsystems; studied the regulation ways and their influences on the design and operation ofthe combined district heating systems; analyzed the factors influencing the performanceof combined district heating systems; and carried out the multicriteria comprehensiveoptimization study considering the economic, technical, energetic and environmentalaspects. This study can provide a theoretical and decision-making basis for the planning,design and retrofitting of the combined district heating systems, and promote theunderstanding of this kind of systems, thus promote the judicious operation of them inthe future.
文中分析了几种常见多热源联合供热系统形式、连接方式及特点，建立了二级网全部热力站等比例调峰和一级网集中燃气和燃煤锅炉调峰多热源联合供热系统的热平衡方程，对它们的优化运行调节方式进行了研究。结果表明一级网纯质调节不能满足多热源联合供热系统的运行调节要求。建立了以费用年值为目标函数的多热源联合供热系统技术经济分析模型和基于能质系数的能耗分析模型，研究了调节方式对多热源联合供热系统初投资和运行费用的影响，以及多种调峰方式的经济性及能耗随基本负荷比β值的变化趋势。
探讨了二级网部分热力站调峰联合供热系统运行调节和负荷调度遵循的一般规律，结果表明该系统应采用质量-流量综合调节的方法进行供热调节，调峰开始后用改变热力站间流量分配的手段进行负荷调度。针对新建和改扩建的二级网部分热力站燃气锅炉调峰联合供热系统，分别给出了确定调峰锅炉的设置位置和容量及系统最优基本负荷比的方法。比较了二级网全部热力站燃气锅炉等比例调峰和部分热力站燃气锅炉调峰方案的优劣。
建立了一种新型的基于最新大气扩散模式AERMOD的多热源联合供热系统热源环境影响模拟和评价模型，考虑了热源和人口分布的影响，在模拟污染物扩散空间分布的基础上，提出综合反映供热系统热源大气环境影响的指标——污染物平均空间分布(MSD)。利用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的统计数据库和计算方法讨论多热源联合供热系统的温室气体CO_2减排潜力。将上述模型应用到几种常见多热源联合供热系统形式中，研究二级网全部热力站燃气锅炉等比例调峰和部分热力站燃气锅炉调峰，一级网集中燃气和燃煤锅炉调峰的大气环境影响，并比较集中和分布式燃气锅炉调峰对大气环境影响的区别。
建立了多热源联合供热系统综合优化指标体系，引入基于互补判断矩阵的模糊层次分析法来计算指标权重。为克服采用单一权重向量对权重判断信息利用不足的缺点，提出权重可行域的概念，将传统的权重向量扩展到权重空间。
最后，基于SMAA开展了多热源联合供热系统的综合优化。建立了可同时处理定量和定性问题的SMAA-2和SMAA-O有机结合模型，采用Monte-Carlo法模拟具有特定概率密度的指标和权重分布，通过计算各方案的相关统计量，如全局可接受性指标、效用函数、排序可接受性指标、中心权重向量、置信因子和交叉置信因子等进行综合优化，并分析了各方案对所有指标的部分效用函数，研究了不同指标对供热方案效用函数的贡献程度。利用上述模型研究以燃煤锅炉房为基本热源的多热源联合供热系统的调峰方式综合优化。基于SMAA的多指标综合优化不仅给出了指标表现值分布和权重可行域内可能的最优方案，还给出了这些方案达到最优的中心权重向量和概率，采用了交叉置信因子来进一步区分比较相近的方案，根据全局可接受性指标对方案进行排序，增强了综合优化结论的合理性和可靠性。
本文在总结几种常见多热源联合供热系统形式的基础上，给出了不同系统设计及运行工况的相关参数计算方法，分别建立了各种系统的热平衡方程，在此基础上，深入研究了它们的调节方式及其对多热源联合供热系统的设计和运行的影响。系统分析了影响多热源联合供热系统性能的各种影响因素，并从经济、技术、能源及环境等方面对多热源联合供热系统进行了综合优化。本研究可以为今后多热源联合供热系统的规划和设计提供一定的理论基础，并为系统的合理运行起到一定的参考作用。
The district heating (DH) load in China has been increasing rapidly in recent years;the proportion of energy consumption in DH sector with respect to the total buildingenergy demand has also been growing year by year and the seasonal ambient airpollution issue posed by DH is becoming worse. In order to improve the currentsituation and under the background of energy structure reformation in China, combineddistrict heating systems are proposed and utilized in DH more extensively. However, thetechnical researches on the combined district heating system fall behind the currentrequirements; systematic multicriteria comprehensive optimization and decision makingmodels still need improving to guide the planning and retrofitting of the systems. Inview of this, the dissertation analyzes the peak-shaving heating modes andcharacteristics of different combined district heating systems; establishes their heatbalance equations; and discusses the regulation ways and their influences on the systemdesign and operation. This study also establishes a comprehensive optimization indexsystem from economic, technological, energetic and environmental points of views; andbased on the index system, stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) isintroduced for the comprehensive optimization of combined district heating systems.
The dissertation studies some of the most common combined district heatingmodes, their system connections and characteristics; establishes the heat balanceequations and optimizes the regulation ways for the combined district heating systemswith small decentralized gas-fired boilers proportionally setting in heating substations insecondary network and with large-scale centralized gas-or coal-fired boilers in primarynetwork. The results show that pure quality regulation method doesn’t satisfy theregulation requirements in the primary network of the combined district heating systems.In addition, the economic and energy analyses models are developed based on annualcost method and energy quality factor, respectively. The influences of regulation wayson initial investments&operation costs and the variations of economic and energyperformances with β value for different peak-shaving modes are also studied.
As to the combined district heating system with partial substations settingpeak-shaving gas-fired boilers, this study discusses the common principles that shouldbe followed in operation regulation and heat load dispatch. The results indicates thatquality and quantity comprehensive regulation method should be used in such kind ofcombined district heating systems and heat load dispatch be carried out by the mannersof changing the flowrate allocation in different heating substations when peak heating begins. The models for determining setting positions and capacities of peak-shavinggas-fired boilers for newly-built and retrofitted combined district heating systems withpartial peak heating are proposed. Besides, the dissertation also compares the economicand energy performances for combined district heating systems with proportional peakheating in all substations and with partial peak heating based on the abovementionedmodels.
This study presents a novel atmospheric environmental impact assessment andsimulation model for the combined district heating systems based on the air dispersionmodel of AERMOD. This model incorporates the factors from the deployment of heatsources at different β and population distribution. On the basis of modeling the groundlevel concentrations (GLCs) for different local pollutants, mean spatial distributions(MSD) of pollutants are proposed to quantitatively determine the atmosphericenvironmental impacts from the heat sources of the combined district heating system. Inaddition, IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang) scenarios and databasesare used to calculate the CO2emissions from combined district heating systems; CO2emission reduction effect is then illustrated. In addition, the atmospheric environmentalimpacts of combined district heating systems with all substations proportionally settinggas-fired boilers and with partial substations setting gas-fired boilers in secondarynetwork, as well as with large-scale gas-and coal-fired boiler in primary network arestudied using aforementioned model too. Finally the atmospheric environmentalimpacts of centralized and decentralized gas peak heating modes are also comparedusing the same model.
The multicriteria optimization index system for the combined district heatingsystem is established and criteria weight vectors are calculated using fuzzy analyticalhierarchy process (FAHP). In order to overcome the shortcomings of using a singleweight vector that may cause judgment information loss, the dissertation brings forwardthe concept of criteria feasible weight space, which extends the traditional weight vectorto weight space.
Finally, the study conducts the multicriteria comprehensive optimization of thecombined heating system using SMAA; first establishes an integrated model combinedwith SMAA-2and SMAA-O which can simultaneously deal with quantitative andqualitative decision problems; then employs Monte-Carlo simulation technique toproduce the criteria measurements and weights according to their stochasticdistributions and to calculate statistic variables e.g., holistic acceptability indices, utilityfunctions, rank acceptability indices, central weight vectors, confidence and crossconfidence factors. On this basis, the partial utility functions respect to each criterion can be calculated to determine their contributions to the total utility function of eachcombined district heating alternative. Then, the model is used in the comprehensiveoptimization of a coal-fired boiler based combined district heating system. Theproposed multicriteria comprehensive optimization framework based on SMAA notonly supplies the ranking of combined heating alternatives considering the stochasticdistributions of criteria and feasible weight space, but also indicates the central weightvectors and the possibilities that they reach the optimal; furthermore, uses crossconfidence factors to differentiate alternatives that are very close to each other, andfinally ranks the alternatives using holistic acceptability indices, which enhance thereasonability and reliability of the multicriteria comprehensive optimization.
To conclude, the dissertation studied several common combined district heatingsystems; showed the calculation of relevant heating parameters in design and operationstages; established heat balance equations for different combined district heatingsystems; studied the regulation ways and their influences on the design and operation ofthe combined district heating systems; analyzed the factors influencing the performanceof combined district heating systems; and carried out the multicriteria comprehensiveoptimization study considering the economic, technical, energetic and environmentalaspects. This study can provide a theoretical and decision-making basis for the planning,design and retrofitting of the combined district heating systems, and promote theunderstanding of this kind of systems, thus promote the judicious operation of them inthe future.
引文
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