水冲压发动机小子样可靠性评定方法研究
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摘要
可靠性是新型水冲压发动机的重要性能指标之一。目前国内水冲压发动机研究处于初级阶段,试验信息具有小子样特征。本文从信息发掘和信息利用角度出发,研究解决水冲压发动机小子样可靠性评估技术难题。本文之研究对节省发动机研制费用,减少试验周期具有重要作用。
针对水冲压发动机特点,分析了各组成部分特性和可靠性逻辑关系。通过研究水冲压发动机可靠性评估所用信息及其特点,讨论了基于先验信息的可靠性评估方法。并研究了发动机研制前期可靠性分配方法和试验量确定方法。
针对水冲压发动机可靠性仿真信息获取问题,研究了基于随机因素的可靠性仿真信息和基于非概率因素的可靠性仿真信息获取方法。提出了基于均匀散布理论,应用多元分布代表点集合作为随机变量集合的可靠性分析方法。借助Kriging模型和响应面模型,解决了区间可靠性分析难题。对具有粘弹性力学特征的装药结构和密封结构可靠性进行了分析研究。为可靠性信息提取和利用提供了坚实基础。
针对水冲压发动机仿真信息在可靠性评估中的应用问题,提出了以二项分布现场试验信息为先验信息,仿真信息为后验信息的基于可靠性干涉理论的逆Bayes可靠性评估方法。通过分析水冲压发动机进水管路模型和内弹道性能模型,根据性能数据为动态数据的特点,研究了时间序列动态数据的相容性检验方法和可靠性评估方法。
针对相似信息在水冲压发动机可靠性评估中的应用问题,提出了应用强度-应力干涉理论,利用仿真结果计算环境因子的方法,该方法相比常规环境因子计算结果更为准确、可信。随后,针对具有非概率相关性的不同类型产品的相似部件信息利用问题,提出了提取相似系统信息和可靠性评估的方法。
研究了采用及时修正策略的离散AMSAA-BISE模型和基于Dirichlet先验分布的模糊可靠性增长模型在发动机可靠性评估中的应用问题。讨论了不同型号类似发动机信息以及专家信息在可靠性增长模型中的应用问题。
对水冲压发动机现阶段存在的失效模式进行了总结,分析研究了串联模型和复杂模型系统可靠性计算方法。对基于单元可靠性评估的系统可靠性评估方法进行了研究。
The reliability is an important index in the water ramjet. At present, the study of water ramjet engine is in its infancy. The experimental information with small sample characteristics is appeared. So, this article tackles the technology challenges of small sample reliability assessment from the point of view of the information discovery and information utilization. It is best for shorting the development and test cycles ultimately.
The working characteristics of the various components in water ramjet and its reliability logical relationship are analyzed. The methods of the reliability assessment are discussed based on the prior information by studying the information and data characteristics of the water ramjet reliability. And the engine reliability assignment methods and test methods to determine the amount in early stage are studied.
For getting the water ramjet reliability simulation information, the methods of acquainting reliability simulation information based on random factors and non-probabilistic factors are discussed. A reliability analysis method is presented using the representative points set of multivariate distribution as random variable set based on number-theoretic. The problem of interval reliability analysis is solved with the Kriging model and the response face model. And the reliability of two important parts, the grain structure with viscoelastic mechanical characteristics and the seal structure, of the engine are analyzed successfully. This provides a foundation for reliability information extraction and utilization.
For the application of simulation information in the water ramjet reliability assessment, a reliability estimation method called inverse Bayesian method is presented based on stress-strength interference theory. In this Bayesian estimator method, filed experiment information with binomial distribution is regarded as prior information and simulation information is regarded as posterior information. The performance data appears dynamic characteristics by analyzing water pipe model and interior ballistic performance model. And compatibility and reliability assessment methods of he dynamic data with time series are analyzed.
For the application of similar information in the water ramjet reliability assessment, a method of environment factor with simulation results is presented based on stress-strength interference theory. Compared to conventional environmental factor, the result of this one is more accurate and credible. Then, a reliability assessment methods using similar information is presented for the application of the similar information of non-probabilistic relevant different types of products.
Whereafter, the application of AMSAA-BISE model based on instant modification strategies and a fuzzy Dirichlet distribution reliability-growth model based on stayed modification strategies is studied for the water ramjet reliability assessment. And, the application of the different model similar engine information and the expert information is discussed in the reliability growth model.
Finally, the failure modes of the water ramjet at present stage are summarized. The system reliability assessment of the series model and the complex model is discussed. And the assessment method of system reliability based on component reliability estimation is studied.
针对水冲压发动机特点,分析了各组成部分特性和可靠性逻辑关系。通过研究水冲压发动机可靠性评估所用信息及其特点,讨论了基于先验信息的可靠性评估方法。并研究了发动机研制前期可靠性分配方法和试验量确定方法。
针对水冲压发动机可靠性仿真信息获取问题,研究了基于随机因素的可靠性仿真信息和基于非概率因素的可靠性仿真信息获取方法。提出了基于均匀散布理论,应用多元分布代表点集合作为随机变量集合的可靠性分析方法。借助Kriging模型和响应面模型,解决了区间可靠性分析难题。对具有粘弹性力学特征的装药结构和密封结构可靠性进行了分析研究。为可靠性信息提取和利用提供了坚实基础。
针对水冲压发动机仿真信息在可靠性评估中的应用问题,提出了以二项分布现场试验信息为先验信息,仿真信息为后验信息的基于可靠性干涉理论的逆Bayes可靠性评估方法。通过分析水冲压发动机进水管路模型和内弹道性能模型,根据性能数据为动态数据的特点,研究了时间序列动态数据的相容性检验方法和可靠性评估方法。
针对相似信息在水冲压发动机可靠性评估中的应用问题,提出了应用强度-应力干涉理论,利用仿真结果计算环境因子的方法,该方法相比常规环境因子计算结果更为准确、可信。随后,针对具有非概率相关性的不同类型产品的相似部件信息利用问题,提出了提取相似系统信息和可靠性评估的方法。
研究了采用及时修正策略的离散AMSAA-BISE模型和基于Dirichlet先验分布的模糊可靠性增长模型在发动机可靠性评估中的应用问题。讨论了不同型号类似发动机信息以及专家信息在可靠性增长模型中的应用问题。
对水冲压发动机现阶段存在的失效模式进行了总结,分析研究了串联模型和复杂模型系统可靠性计算方法。对基于单元可靠性评估的系统可靠性评估方法进行了研究。
The reliability is an important index in the water ramjet. At present, the study of water ramjet engine is in its infancy. The experimental information with small sample characteristics is appeared. So, this article tackles the technology challenges of small sample reliability assessment from the point of view of the information discovery and information utilization. It is best for shorting the development and test cycles ultimately.
The working characteristics of the various components in water ramjet and its reliability logical relationship are analyzed. The methods of the reliability assessment are discussed based on the prior information by studying the information and data characteristics of the water ramjet reliability. And the engine reliability assignment methods and test methods to determine the amount in early stage are studied.
For getting the water ramjet reliability simulation information, the methods of acquainting reliability simulation information based on random factors and non-probabilistic factors are discussed. A reliability analysis method is presented using the representative points set of multivariate distribution as random variable set based on number-theoretic. The problem of interval reliability analysis is solved with the Kriging model and the response face model. And the reliability of two important parts, the grain structure with viscoelastic mechanical characteristics and the seal structure, of the engine are analyzed successfully. This provides a foundation for reliability information extraction and utilization.
For the application of simulation information in the water ramjet reliability assessment, a reliability estimation method called inverse Bayesian method is presented based on stress-strength interference theory. In this Bayesian estimator method, filed experiment information with binomial distribution is regarded as prior information and simulation information is regarded as posterior information. The performance data appears dynamic characteristics by analyzing water pipe model and interior ballistic performance model. And compatibility and reliability assessment methods of he dynamic data with time series are analyzed.
For the application of similar information in the water ramjet reliability assessment, a method of environment factor with simulation results is presented based on stress-strength interference theory. Compared to conventional environmental factor, the result of this one is more accurate and credible. Then, a reliability assessment methods using similar information is presented for the application of the similar information of non-probabilistic relevant different types of products.
Whereafter, the application of AMSAA-BISE model based on instant modification strategies and a fuzzy Dirichlet distribution reliability-growth model based on stayed modification strategies is studied for the water ramjet reliability assessment. And, the application of the different model similar engine information and the expert information is discussed in the reliability growth model.
Finally, the failure modes of the water ramjet at present stage are summarized. The system reliability assessment of the series model and the complex model is discussed. And the assessment method of system reliability based on component reliability estimation is studied.
引文
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