不确定环境下供应商选择优化方法研究
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摘要
供应商选择,是指通过对供应商的了解和评价,采用适当的方法为企业选择适合自身需要的供应商,以降低企业所需原料供应风险。供应商是整个供应链的源头,因此供应商对于企业生存和发展起着至关重要的作用。供应商的好坏,不仅影响到产品的质量和成本,还会影响企业经营的整个流程,并最终影响供应链的竞争地位。从这个意义上来说,供应商就是构成企业竞争力的一个必不可少的重要因素。
论文首先对供应商的风险问题进行了分析,在阐述供应商的内涵和分类等的基础上,着重对供应商风险的成因进行了探讨,指出利益冲突、信息不对称、机密信息外泄、道德风险、信任与协作风险以及外包风险是形成供应商风险的七个主要原因。在风险分析的基础上,进一步对企业选择供应商时应该遵循的基本原则、工作程序和基本方法等也进行了阐述。
企业的供应商选择问题,应包括选择什么样的供应商和选择多少个供应商两方面的问题。论文在考虑控制企业供应风险及成本的前提下,提出一种能有效确定企业最佳供应商数量的风险分析方法。将影响供应商正常供货的风险事件分为“共同风险事件”和“单独风险事件”两类,在考虑企业由于供应商不能正常供货而导致的经济损失、企业选择供应商的管理成本和各类风险事件发生概率的基础上,使用定量分析方法对企业的最优供应商数量问题进行了分析,并给出了计算企业最优供应商数量的模型,并通过算例计算分析了各参数对最优供应商数量的影响情况。
在假设用户的需求和提前期均为随机的环境中,设计了一个同时考虑了需求数量和需求时机不确定性的供应商柔性衡量方法,在此基础上以企业的采购成本、运输成本、退货成本以及交付晚点率、废品率最小和总的供应商柔性最大为优化目标,建立了需求不确定环境下的供应商选择和订货量分配优化模型,该模型不仅可以确定最优供应商,同时还可以确定各供应商的订购量分配率,并基于模拟退火算法设计了启发式求解方法进行问题的计算和分析。
在企业的采购规划期内,原材料的市场价格和企业的自身需求都是不确定的,企业需要从长期合同供应商和短期现货供应商中,选择符合自身利益的供应商进行原材料的采购。首先在假定价格和需求都服从正态分布的前提下,研究了企业在整个规划期只选择一种供应商策略时的效益成本分析,在此基础上,将整个规划期划分为多个时期进行动态的分期决策,着重研究了原材料的价格和需求都服从离散分布时的供应商动态选择策略问题,提出了供应商动态选择的随机动态规划模型,并设计求解方法。
Supplier selection is to understand and evaluate suppliers, to use appropriate methods to select suitable suppliers needed by enterprises, which helps enterprises to reduce the risk of raw materials supply. Suppliers are the source of the supply chain; therefore, they are critical to the survival and development of the. enterprises. Supplier quality not only affects the quality and the cost of the products, but also the whole business process, and ultimately the supply chain competition. In this sense, suppliers are an indispensable factor to the competitiveness of enterprises.
Firstly, the problem of supplier risks is analyzed. Based on an elaboration of the connotation and classification of the suppliers, the causes of the supplier risks are investigated, which pointes out that benefit conflicts, asymmetric information, the leakage of confidential information, moral hazard, the risk of trust and collaboration and the risk of outsourcing are the seven major causes of the supplier risk. On the basis of risk analysis, the basic principles, procedures and basic methods which are should be followed by the enterprise when selecting suppliers are further investigated.
The problem of supplier selection includes what kinds of suppliers should be selected and how many of them should be selected. Under the premise of risk and cost control of the enterprise supply, a risk analysis method is put forward to effectively decide the optimal number of suppliers for enterprises. The risk events which affect the suppliers' normal supplying are categorized into 'common risk events'and 'single risk event'. Considering the enterprise's economic loss caused by supplier's inability of normal supply, the management cost of supplier selection and the probability of various types of risk events, a quantitative method is used to analyze the problem of the optimal number of enterprise's suppliers. A model of calculating the optimal number of enterprise's suppliers is constructed. A numerical example is used to analyze each parameter's influence on the optimal number of enterprise's suppliers.
On the assumption that the user's demand and the lead time are random, a supplier flexibility measure is developed considering the uncertainty of the demand quantity and demand time simultaneously. The supplier selection optimization model is proposed, in which the multi-objective function is to minimize the procurement cost and the late delivery rate and the quality rate and cost of returned goods, and maximize the total supplier flexibility. The model not only could determine the optimal suppliers, but also could determine the order splitting ration. A heuristic solution method featured by simulated annealing algorithm is developed to solve the model.
In the enterprise's purchasing planning period, the market price of raw materials and the enterprise's own demands are uncertain. Among long-term contract suppliers and short-term off-the-shelf suppliers, the enterprise needs to choose those who meet its own interests to purchase raw materials. On the assumption that prices and demand are normal distribution, one case is studied that the enterprise chooses only one type of suppliers in the whole planning period. On this basis, the whole planning period is divided into several phased decision-making periods, and the dynamic supplier selection strategy is further studied assuming that the price and demand of raw materials are subject to discrete distribution. A random dynamic programming model for dynamic supplier selection is built and the solution method is designed.
论文首先对供应商的风险问题进行了分析,在阐述供应商的内涵和分类等的基础上,着重对供应商风险的成因进行了探讨,指出利益冲突、信息不对称、机密信息外泄、道德风险、信任与协作风险以及外包风险是形成供应商风险的七个主要原因。在风险分析的基础上,进一步对企业选择供应商时应该遵循的基本原则、工作程序和基本方法等也进行了阐述。
企业的供应商选择问题,应包括选择什么样的供应商和选择多少个供应商两方面的问题。论文在考虑控制企业供应风险及成本的前提下,提出一种能有效确定企业最佳供应商数量的风险分析方法。将影响供应商正常供货的风险事件分为“共同风险事件”和“单独风险事件”两类,在考虑企业由于供应商不能正常供货而导致的经济损失、企业选择供应商的管理成本和各类风险事件发生概率的基础上,使用定量分析方法对企业的最优供应商数量问题进行了分析,并给出了计算企业最优供应商数量的模型,并通过算例计算分析了各参数对最优供应商数量的影响情况。
在假设用户的需求和提前期均为随机的环境中,设计了一个同时考虑了需求数量和需求时机不确定性的供应商柔性衡量方法,在此基础上以企业的采购成本、运输成本、退货成本以及交付晚点率、废品率最小和总的供应商柔性最大为优化目标,建立了需求不确定环境下的供应商选择和订货量分配优化模型,该模型不仅可以确定最优供应商,同时还可以确定各供应商的订购量分配率,并基于模拟退火算法设计了启发式求解方法进行问题的计算和分析。
在企业的采购规划期内,原材料的市场价格和企业的自身需求都是不确定的,企业需要从长期合同供应商和短期现货供应商中,选择符合自身利益的供应商进行原材料的采购。首先在假定价格和需求都服从正态分布的前提下,研究了企业在整个规划期只选择一种供应商策略时的效益成本分析,在此基础上,将整个规划期划分为多个时期进行动态的分期决策,着重研究了原材料的价格和需求都服从离散分布时的供应商动态选择策略问题,提出了供应商动态选择的随机动态规划模型,并设计求解方法。
Supplier selection is to understand and evaluate suppliers, to use appropriate methods to select suitable suppliers needed by enterprises, which helps enterprises to reduce the risk of raw materials supply. Suppliers are the source of the supply chain; therefore, they are critical to the survival and development of the. enterprises. Supplier quality not only affects the quality and the cost of the products, but also the whole business process, and ultimately the supply chain competition. In this sense, suppliers are an indispensable factor to the competitiveness of enterprises.
Firstly, the problem of supplier risks is analyzed. Based on an elaboration of the connotation and classification of the suppliers, the causes of the supplier risks are investigated, which pointes out that benefit conflicts, asymmetric information, the leakage of confidential information, moral hazard, the risk of trust and collaboration and the risk of outsourcing are the seven major causes of the supplier risk. On the basis of risk analysis, the basic principles, procedures and basic methods which are should be followed by the enterprise when selecting suppliers are further investigated.
The problem of supplier selection includes what kinds of suppliers should be selected and how many of them should be selected. Under the premise of risk and cost control of the enterprise supply, a risk analysis method is put forward to effectively decide the optimal number of suppliers for enterprises. The risk events which affect the suppliers' normal supplying are categorized into 'common risk events'and 'single risk event'. Considering the enterprise's economic loss caused by supplier's inability of normal supply, the management cost of supplier selection and the probability of various types of risk events, a quantitative method is used to analyze the problem of the optimal number of enterprise's suppliers. A model of calculating the optimal number of enterprise's suppliers is constructed. A numerical example is used to analyze each parameter's influence on the optimal number of enterprise's suppliers.
On the assumption that the user's demand and the lead time are random, a supplier flexibility measure is developed considering the uncertainty of the demand quantity and demand time simultaneously. The supplier selection optimization model is proposed, in which the multi-objective function is to minimize the procurement cost and the late delivery rate and the quality rate and cost of returned goods, and maximize the total supplier flexibility. The model not only could determine the optimal suppliers, but also could determine the order splitting ration. A heuristic solution method featured by simulated annealing algorithm is developed to solve the model.
In the enterprise's purchasing planning period, the market price of raw materials and the enterprise's own demands are uncertain. Among long-term contract suppliers and short-term off-the-shelf suppliers, the enterprise needs to choose those who meet its own interests to purchase raw materials. On the assumption that prices and demand are normal distribution, one case is studied that the enterprise chooses only one type of suppliers in the whole planning period. On this basis, the whole planning period is divided into several phased decision-making periods, and the dynamic supplier selection strategy is further studied assuming that the price and demand of raw materials are subject to discrete distribution. A random dynamic programming model for dynamic supplier selection is built and the solution method is designed.
引文
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