中国物流业全要素生产率及其影响因素研究
摘要
近年来,我国物流服务业得到了持续快速发展,物流费用总额从1991年的3万亿发展到2008年的89.9万亿,增长了近30倍,年均增幅20.7%,扣除价格因素,年均增长15%。但2008年的GDP只比1991年增长16.15倍,说明经济发展的物流代价偏大。数据显示我国物流成本占GDP的比重为18~19%,是发达国家的一倍,物流作业水平有较大提升空间。为了保持物流业可持续发展,除了了解增长速度外,更应关注增长的形成因素,即要判断增长是主要由投入增加带动的粗放型增长,还是主要因效率提高促成的集约型增长。我国物流业如何更好由粗放型向集约型方式增长转变,是保持我国物流业持续快速发展的关键,文章选题的基本思路正是希望为解决这一问题并得出一些可以借鉴的经验和政策建议。
本文使用基于DEA的非参数Malmquist指数方法测算了1997~2008年期间中国30个省、自治区、直辖市物流业全要素生产率的变动情况,并将其分解为技术效率和技术进步。测算结果显示:1997~2008年全国物流业全要素生产率的平均增长率为4.5%,这主要受益于技术进步的增长,其平均增长率为6.4%,而同期技术效率的表现为下降,其平均降幅为1.5%。根据东、中、西部的区域划分来看,东部地区物流业发展情况较好,中部次之,西部排名垫底。并且通过收敛性检验发现,东、中、西部之间的发展差距有不断扩大的趋势。
在上述研究基础上,本文从工业化程度、人力资本存量、专业人员数、市场化程度、地区经济增长等5个方面对影响全要素生产率的因素进行了实证研究,通过定性与定量分析相结合,探讨从哪些方面可以提高我国全要素生产率相关指数。研究结果显示:工业化程度、人力资本存量、专业人员数、市场化程度对我国物流业全要素生产率起显著促进作用。经济增长显著促进技术进步从而间接促进全要素生产率提升。
In recent years, our country logistics service industry has continued to develop fast, the logistics total amount 3trillion developed from 1991 to 2008 89trillion nearly 30 times, the yearly average increased 20.7%, deducted the price factor, the yearly average grows 15%. But compared to 1991, 2008 GDP only grew 16.15 times, the explanation economic development logistics price is large. The data demonstrated that our country physical distribution cost occupies GDP the proportion is 18~19%, one time larger than developed countries, the logistics work level has big promotion space. In order to maintain the logistics sustainable development, besides the understanding rate of rise, should pay attention to the form factor which grows, namely must judge the growth is mainly the extension growth which leads by the investment growth, mainly because of the efficiency enhancement of the intensive type grows.Our country logistics how better by the extension transforms to the intensive way growth, is maintains the key which our country logistics continues to develop fast, the article selected topic basic mentality is precisely the hope to solve the experience which and the policy suggestion this question and obtains some may use for reference.
This article used based on the DEA non-parameter Malmquist index method has studied 1997~2008 year period China 30 provinces, autonomous region, the municipality logistics total factor productivity change situation, and decomposed it into the efficiency change and the technology change. Result shows: 1997~2008 year national logistics total factor productivity's average growth rate is 4.5%, this primary benefit in technology change's growth, its average growth rate is 6.4%, but,at the same time,efficiency change's performance is dropping, its average range of fall is 1.5%. According to the east, middle, the western regionalism, the eastern area logistics state of play is good, middle is next, the west places something under a base. And through the astringent examination discovery, east, middle, west between development has different tendency which expands unceasingly.
On the base of upper studies,this article researches the total factor productivity from the human capital storage quantity, the specialists counted, the industrialization degree, the marketability degree, the local economic growth which affects the factors to conduct the empirical study, through determined the nature of wants to unify with the quantitative analysis, which aspects discusses may enhance our country entire essential factor productivity carrelation index from. The findings showed: The human capital storage quantity, the specialists count, the industrialization degree, the marketability degree play the remarkable obvious action to our country logistics entire essential factor productivity. Thus the economic growth remarkable promotion technology advancement promotes the entire essential factor productivity promotion indirectly.
本文使用基于DEA的非参数Malmquist指数方法测算了1997~2008年期间中国30个省、自治区、直辖市物流业全要素生产率的变动情况,并将其分解为技术效率和技术进步。测算结果显示:1997~2008年全国物流业全要素生产率的平均增长率为4.5%,这主要受益于技术进步的增长,其平均增长率为6.4%,而同期技术效率的表现为下降,其平均降幅为1.5%。根据东、中、西部的区域划分来看,东部地区物流业发展情况较好,中部次之,西部排名垫底。并且通过收敛性检验发现,东、中、西部之间的发展差距有不断扩大的趋势。
在上述研究基础上,本文从工业化程度、人力资本存量、专业人员数、市场化程度、地区经济增长等5个方面对影响全要素生产率的因素进行了实证研究,通过定性与定量分析相结合,探讨从哪些方面可以提高我国全要素生产率相关指数。研究结果显示:工业化程度、人力资本存量、专业人员数、市场化程度对我国物流业全要素生产率起显著促进作用。经济增长显著促进技术进步从而间接促进全要素生产率提升。
In recent years, our country logistics service industry has continued to develop fast, the logistics total amount 3trillion developed from 1991 to 2008 89trillion nearly 30 times, the yearly average increased 20.7%, deducted the price factor, the yearly average grows 15%. But compared to 1991, 2008 GDP only grew 16.15 times, the explanation economic development logistics price is large. The data demonstrated that our country physical distribution cost occupies GDP the proportion is 18~19%, one time larger than developed countries, the logistics work level has big promotion space. In order to maintain the logistics sustainable development, besides the understanding rate of rise, should pay attention to the form factor which grows, namely must judge the growth is mainly the extension growth which leads by the investment growth, mainly because of the efficiency enhancement of the intensive type grows.Our country logistics how better by the extension transforms to the intensive way growth, is maintains the key which our country logistics continues to develop fast, the article selected topic basic mentality is precisely the hope to solve the experience which and the policy suggestion this question and obtains some may use for reference.
This article used based on the DEA non-parameter Malmquist index method has studied 1997~2008 year period China 30 provinces, autonomous region, the municipality logistics total factor productivity change situation, and decomposed it into the efficiency change and the technology change. Result shows: 1997~2008 year national logistics total factor productivity's average growth rate is 4.5%, this primary benefit in technology change's growth, its average growth rate is 6.4%, but,at the same time,efficiency change's performance is dropping, its average range of fall is 1.5%. According to the east, middle, the western regionalism, the eastern area logistics state of play is good, middle is next, the west places something under a base. And through the astringent examination discovery, east, middle, west between development has different tendency which expands unceasingly.
On the base of upper studies,this article researches the total factor productivity from the human capital storage quantity, the specialists counted, the industrialization degree, the marketability degree, the local economic growth which affects the factors to conduct the empirical study, through determined the nature of wants to unify with the quantitative analysis, which aspects discusses may enhance our country entire essential factor productivity carrelation index from. The findings showed: The human capital storage quantity, the specialists count, the industrialization degree, the marketability degree play the remarkable obvious action to our country logistics entire essential factor productivity. Thus the economic growth remarkable promotion technology advancement promotes the entire essential factor productivity promotion indirectly.
引文
[1] Tinbergen.Jan.Zur Theoie der Langfirstigen Wirtschaftsentwichlung[J]. Weltwirts, Archiv, 1942, 13(1):34-45
[2] Solow R W. Technical change and the aggregate production function[J]. Review of Economics of Statistics,1957,39(3):312-320
[3] Kendrick. Postwar Productivity Trends in the United States, 1948-1969[J]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1973,(1):1-10
[4] Denison, E. Why growth rates differ[M]. Washington, D.C., Brookings Institute
[5] Jorgensen Dale W. and Zvi Grillches. The explanation of productivity change[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1967,34
[6] Farrell M.J. The Measurement of Productive Efficiency [J]. American Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series A,1957,51(4):533-558
[7] Aigner D.J. and Lovell C.A.K.,Schmidt P. Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production functions modles[J].Journal of Econometrics, 1977, 6(1):21-37
[8] Meeusen W. and Broeck Van Den J.Efficiency Estimation from Cobb-Dauglas Production Function with Composed Error[J].International Economic Review, 1977,18(2):435-444
[9] Kumbhakar S.C.Production frontiers, panel data and time-varying technical inefficiency[J].Journal of Econometrics.1990,(46):201-211
[10] Chames A,Cooper W.W. and Rhodes E.Measuring the Efficiency of Decision Making Units[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1978,2(6):429-444
[11] Malmquist S.Index numbers and indifferent curves[J]. Trabajos de Estgatistica, 1953,(4):209-242
[12] Caves D.W., Christensen L.R. and Diewert.W.E.The economic theory of index numbers and the measurement of input, output, and productivity[J]. Econometrica,1982,92(365):73-86
[13]魏权龄,岳明.DEA概论与CR模型——数据包络技术分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,1989,(1):58-69
[14]李京文,D.乔根森,黑田昌裕。生产率与中美日经济增长研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1993
[15]郑玉歆,张晓.技术效率、技术进步及其对生产率的贡献——沿海工业企业调查的初步分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1995,(12):20-27
[16]刘小玄,郑京海.国有企业效率的决定因素:1985-1994[J].经济研究,1998, (1): 37-46
[17]顾海,孟令杰.度量生产率变化的非参数方法[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2001, (2):48-51
[18]颜鹏飞,王兵.技术效率、技术进步和生产率增长:基于DEA的实证分析[J].经济研究,2004,(12):57-62
[19]黄先海,石东楠.对外贸易对我国全要素生产率影响的测度与分析[J].世界经济研究,2005,(1):22-26
[20]沈能.中国制造业全要素生产率地区空间差异的实证研究[J].中国软科学, 2006,(6):101-110
[21]涂正革.全要素生产率与区域工业的和谐快速发展——基于1995~2004年28个省市大中型工业的非参数生产前沿分析[J].财经研究,2007,33(12):90-102
[22]刘舜佳.国际贸易、FDI和中国全要素生产率下降——基于1952~2006年面板数据的DEA和协整检验[J].数据经济技术经济研究,2008,25(11):28-39
[23]原毅军,刘浩,白楠.中国生产性服务业全要素生产率测度——基于Malmquist指数方法的研究[J].中国软科学,2009,(1):159-167
[24] Oum T. ,M.Tretheway, W.Waters.Concept,Methods and Purposes of Productivity Measurement in Transportation[J]. Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,1992,26(6):493-505
[25] Semra Birgun, Necmettin Akten. Relative efficiencies of seaport container terminals: a DEA perspective [J]. International Journal of Integrated Supply Management,2005,(4):442-456
[26] Tanskanen. Kari. Vendor managed category management-an outsourcing solution in retailing[J].Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 2003(4):165-175
[27] M.N.Qureshi, Dinesh Kumar. Modeling the logistics outsourcing relationship variables to enhance shippers productivity and competitiveness in logistics supply chain [J]. International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, 2007,(8):689-714
[28] Barros,C.P.The Measurement of efficiency of Portuguese Seaport Authorities with DEA[J].International Journal of Transport Economics,2003,30(3):335-354
[29]余思勤,蒋迪娜,卢剑超.我国交通运输业全要素生产率变动分析[J].同济大学学报:自然科学版,2004,32(6):827-831
[30]张越,胡华清.基于Malmquist生产力指数的中国民用机场运营效率分析[J].系统工程,2006,24(12):40-45
[31]贺竹磬,孙林岩.我国区域物流相对有效性分析[J].科研管理,2006,27(6): 144-150
[32]于剑.基于Malmquist指数的我国航空公司业全要素生产率分析[J].北京理工大学学报:社会科学版,2007,9(6):43-46
[33]刘玉海,林建兵,翁嘉辉.中国道路运输业营运效率动态分析术——基于Malmquist生产力指数[J].产业经济研究,2008,(1):56-63
[34]张自然.中国生产性服务业TFP变动分解[J].贵州财经学院学报, 2008,(2):34-39
[35]王亚华,吴凡,王争.交通行业生产率变动的Bootstrap-Malmquist指数分析(1980-2005)[J].经济学(季刊).2008,7(3):891-912
[36]邓学平,王旭,Ada Suk Fung Ng.我国物流企业生产效率与规模效率[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(4):34-42
[37] Liu Yang,Wu Yu-hua. Empirical analysis on TFP change in Chinese logistics industry:A nonparametric Malmquist index approach[J].Chinese Business Review,2007,(6):1-13
[38]田刚,李南.中国物流业技术进步与技术效率研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2009,(2):76-87
[39]吴敬琏.思考与回应:中国工业化道路的抉择[J].学术月刊,2005,(12):38-45
[40] Theodore.W.Schultz. Investment in Human Capital[J],The American Economic Review ,1961, 51, (1):1-17
[41] Hirofumi Uzawa. Optimum Technical Change in An Aggregative Model of Economic Growth[J],International Economic Review, 1965,6(1):18-31
[42] Paul.M.Romer. Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth[J],The Journal of Political Economy,1986,94,(5) :1002-1037
[43] Robert E. Lucas. On the mechanics of economic development[J],Journal of Monetary Economics,1988,22,(1) :3-42
[44]李晓宏,孙林岩,何哲.我国区域技术进步影响因素实证分析[J].科技管理研究, 2008,(9):110-112
[45]杜婷,庞东.制度冲击与中国经济的周期波动[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2006, (6):34-43
[46]尹宗成,江激宇,李冬嵬.技术进步水平与经济增长[J].科学学研究,2009, 27(10): 1480-1485
[47]樊纲,王小鲁,朱恒鹏.中国市场化指数——各地区市场化进程2004年度报告[R].北京:经济科学出版社,2004
[2] Solow R W. Technical change and the aggregate production function[J]. Review of Economics of Statistics,1957,39(3):312-320
[3] Kendrick. Postwar Productivity Trends in the United States, 1948-1969[J]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1973,(1):1-10
[4] Denison, E. Why growth rates differ[M]. Washington, D.C., Brookings Institute
[5] Jorgensen Dale W. and Zvi Grillches. The explanation of productivity change[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1967,34
[6] Farrell M.J. The Measurement of Productive Efficiency [J]. American Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series A,1957,51(4):533-558
[7] Aigner D.J. and Lovell C.A.K.,Schmidt P. Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production functions modles[J].Journal of Econometrics, 1977, 6(1):21-37
[8] Meeusen W. and Broeck Van Den J.Efficiency Estimation from Cobb-Dauglas Production Function with Composed Error[J].International Economic Review, 1977,18(2):435-444
[9] Kumbhakar S.C.Production frontiers, panel data and time-varying technical inefficiency[J].Journal of Econometrics.1990,(46):201-211
[10] Chames A,Cooper W.W. and Rhodes E.Measuring the Efficiency of Decision Making Units[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1978,2(6):429-444
[11] Malmquist S.Index numbers and indifferent curves[J]. Trabajos de Estgatistica, 1953,(4):209-242
[12] Caves D.W., Christensen L.R. and Diewert.W.E.The economic theory of index numbers and the measurement of input, output, and productivity[J]. Econometrica,1982,92(365):73-86
[13]魏权龄,岳明.DEA概论与CR模型——数据包络技术分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,1989,(1):58-69
[14]李京文,D.乔根森,黑田昌裕。生产率与中美日经济增长研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1993
[15]郑玉歆,张晓.技术效率、技术进步及其对生产率的贡献——沿海工业企业调查的初步分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1995,(12):20-27
[16]刘小玄,郑京海.国有企业效率的决定因素:1985-1994[J].经济研究,1998, (1): 37-46
[17]顾海,孟令杰.度量生产率变化的非参数方法[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2001, (2):48-51
[18]颜鹏飞,王兵.技术效率、技术进步和生产率增长:基于DEA的实证分析[J].经济研究,2004,(12):57-62
[19]黄先海,石东楠.对外贸易对我国全要素生产率影响的测度与分析[J].世界经济研究,2005,(1):22-26
[20]沈能.中国制造业全要素生产率地区空间差异的实证研究[J].中国软科学, 2006,(6):101-110
[21]涂正革.全要素生产率与区域工业的和谐快速发展——基于1995~2004年28个省市大中型工业的非参数生产前沿分析[J].财经研究,2007,33(12):90-102
[22]刘舜佳.国际贸易、FDI和中国全要素生产率下降——基于1952~2006年面板数据的DEA和协整检验[J].数据经济技术经济研究,2008,25(11):28-39
[23]原毅军,刘浩,白楠.中国生产性服务业全要素生产率测度——基于Malmquist指数方法的研究[J].中国软科学,2009,(1):159-167
[24] Oum T. ,M.Tretheway, W.Waters.Concept,Methods and Purposes of Productivity Measurement in Transportation[J]. Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,1992,26(6):493-505
[25] Semra Birgun, Necmettin Akten. Relative efficiencies of seaport container terminals: a DEA perspective [J]. International Journal of Integrated Supply Management,2005,(4):442-456
[26] Tanskanen. Kari. Vendor managed category management-an outsourcing solution in retailing[J].Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 2003(4):165-175
[27] M.N.Qureshi, Dinesh Kumar. Modeling the logistics outsourcing relationship variables to enhance shippers productivity and competitiveness in logistics supply chain [J]. International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, 2007,(8):689-714
[28] Barros,C.P.The Measurement of efficiency of Portuguese Seaport Authorities with DEA[J].International Journal of Transport Economics,2003,30(3):335-354
[29]余思勤,蒋迪娜,卢剑超.我国交通运输业全要素生产率变动分析[J].同济大学学报:自然科学版,2004,32(6):827-831
[30]张越,胡华清.基于Malmquist生产力指数的中国民用机场运营效率分析[J].系统工程,2006,24(12):40-45
[31]贺竹磬,孙林岩.我国区域物流相对有效性分析[J].科研管理,2006,27(6): 144-150
[32]于剑.基于Malmquist指数的我国航空公司业全要素生产率分析[J].北京理工大学学报:社会科学版,2007,9(6):43-46
[33]刘玉海,林建兵,翁嘉辉.中国道路运输业营运效率动态分析术——基于Malmquist生产力指数[J].产业经济研究,2008,(1):56-63
[34]张自然.中国生产性服务业TFP变动分解[J].贵州财经学院学报, 2008,(2):34-39
[35]王亚华,吴凡,王争.交通行业生产率变动的Bootstrap-Malmquist指数分析(1980-2005)[J].经济学(季刊).2008,7(3):891-912
[36]邓学平,王旭,Ada Suk Fung Ng.我国物流企业生产效率与规模效率[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(4):34-42
[37] Liu Yang,Wu Yu-hua. Empirical analysis on TFP change in Chinese logistics industry:A nonparametric Malmquist index approach[J].Chinese Business Review,2007,(6):1-13
[38]田刚,李南.中国物流业技术进步与技术效率研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2009,(2):76-87
[39]吴敬琏.思考与回应:中国工业化道路的抉择[J].学术月刊,2005,(12):38-45
[40] Theodore.W.Schultz. Investment in Human Capital[J],The American Economic Review ,1961, 51, (1):1-17
[41] Hirofumi Uzawa. Optimum Technical Change in An Aggregative Model of Economic Growth[J],International Economic Review, 1965,6(1):18-31
[42] Paul.M.Romer. Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth[J],The Journal of Political Economy,1986,94,(5) :1002-1037
[43] Robert E. Lucas. On the mechanics of economic development[J],Journal of Monetary Economics,1988,22,(1) :3-42
[44]李晓宏,孙林岩,何哲.我国区域技术进步影响因素实证分析[J].科技管理研究, 2008,(9):110-112
[45]杜婷,庞东.制度冲击与中国经济的周期波动[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2006, (6):34-43
[46]尹宗成,江激宇,李冬嵬.技术进步水平与经济增长[J].科学学研究,2009, 27(10): 1480-1485
[47]樊纲,王小鲁,朱恒鹏.中国市场化指数——各地区市场化进程2004年度报告[R].北京:经济科学出版社,2004