面向重大突发事件的区域应急物资储备与调度研究
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摘要
突发事件具有突发性和紧急性、高度不确定性、复杂性、破坏性、持续性和衍生性、必然性和可控性等特征。为尽量减小突发事件带来的损失,必须及时采取有效的救援救助措施。在应对突发事件的过程中,无论是对伤亡人员的救助、各种物资设备(包括危险设施设备等)的安全转移,还是卫生防疫、灾后恢复重建等一系列救援活动,都需要大量的应急物资。但是,由于我国应急管理的研究起步较晚,在应急物资管理方面的研究相对较薄弱；从应急救援工作的实际来看,也存在由于应急物资储备和调度的问题不能及时满足救助活动需求的情况。为了保障应急预案的顺利实施和救助活动的开展,有必要以建立区域应急物资保障体系为目的,对应急物资的储备配置和调度运输进行系统研究。
因此,文中从区域应急物资的需求分析、应急物资储备体系、应急物资的调度几个方面进行研究,主要内容包括：
(1)结合我国应急管理对突发事件的分类框架和预案体系,细化突发事件的类别；提出不能沿用常态下物资按照其价值分类的方法,而应按使用价值对应急物资进行分类的原则,从紧急程度、使用范围和专门程度3维对应急物资分类,将应急物资分类与其储备保障方式紧密联系起来。
(2)搭建了应急物资需求分析的推理框架,将模糊证据理论、模糊案例推理等不确定理论分别应用于突发事件的评估和应急物资的需求分析。
(3)在分析我国应急物资储备现状的基础上,提出了建立区域应急物资储备体系的目标、原则及管理措施；并针对一类应急物资储备点选址布局问题建立了数学模型,根据问题的特点分2阶段利用粒子群算法和线性规划算法进行了求解算例分析。
(4)讨论灾害事件发生后应急物资的调度问题,考虑在应急物资需求数量较多和时间较为紧迫的前提下,以灾害损失最小为目标,建立了确定条件下的单品种和多品种应急物资调度数学模型,并进行了求解；针对道路运输时间的不确定性,运用模糊方法对模糊网络最大满意度路径进行了选取,在此基础上,讨论了模糊行程时间的应急物资调度问题及其求解方法。
(5)针对公共卫生事件,特别是发生重大传染病疫情时的应急物资调度问题进行研究；建立了基于传染病防控机理的应急医疗物资需求模型,然后分析了需求随时间变化的应急物资调度问题,分别给出了求解算例。
(6)概述了事故灾难救援的特点以及我国应急救援体系,分析了应急救援资源需求的影响因素,考虑地区差异、季节差异、事故发生的时间差异,建立了应急救援资源需求的概念模型；针对重大事故灾难发生时,可能出现多个救援需求点、存在救援资源不足的一类情况,考虑救援车辆行程时间的随机性,建立了多个救援出发点的应急车辆调度模型,对救援车辆行程时间的随机性采用概率分布和机会约束规划进行处理,并运用遗传算法给出了求解算例。
Emergent events is characteristic of burstiness and urgency, a high degree of uncertainty, complexity, destructive, persistent and derivatives, inevitability and controllability. To minimize the loss caused by emergent events as far as possible, the effective rescue and aid measures must be taken immediately. In the course of the emergency preparedness and response, both for casualties'rescue, safe transfer of a variety of materials and equipments (including hazardous materials and equipments, etc.), or sanitary and anti-epidemic, restoration and reconstruction after the events, so a range of assistance activities all require a large amount of emergency supplies. However, due to the research of emergency management in China start relatively late, the research of emergency resources management is relatively weak. In the actual emergency rescue practice, the situation also exists that as a result of emergency resources reserves and scheduling issues cannot meet the needs of rescue activities in a timely manner. In order to guarantee the smooth implementation of the contingency plans and the development of emergent rescue activities, it is necessary to systematic study on the reserves, allocation, dispatches and transport of emergency resources, for the purpose of the establishment of regional emergency resources security system.
Therefore, the requirement analysis of a regional emergency resources, the storage system and scheduling of emergency resources is discussed, the contents of the main research in this paper include:
(1) Based on the emergent events classification framework and the contingency plans system of the emergency management in China, further detail of emergencies category is proposed. The method of categories in accordance with material value under normal condition is not fit for emergent situations. Following the principle of categorization accordingto the use value of emergency resources, it can be classified from the degree of urgency, scope of use and the degree of specialization of 3D on the classification, so that we can make relationships between categorization of emergency resources and its reserve way closely.
(2) The reasoning framework of the requirement analysis of emergency resources is build, and fuzzy Dempster-Shafer theory and fuzzy case-based reasoning of uncertainty theory is respectively applied to the assessment of emergent events and the requirement analysis of emergency resources.
(3) Based on the analysis of the current situation of emergency materials storage in China, the principles and goals of the establishment of regional emergency materials storage system and its management measures are proposed, a kind of emergency materials deposited site layout problem is discussed with established mathematical model, and the solution of the model divided into 2 phases using Particle Swarm Optimization and linear programming algorithm for example analysis.
(4) The scheduling problems of the emergency materials after disaster is discussed. Considering more munerous and urgency of the needs of emergency materials, scheduling mathematical model of single-species and a variety of emergency materials in determining the conditions is established to minimize the disaster loss as the target, and its solution is made. For the uncertainty of road transport time, fuzzy set methods is used to select the maximum satisfaction path on fuzzy network, and scheduling problem of emergency materials with the fuzzy travel time and its solution is discussed.
(5) Emergency medical supplies demand model based on the mechanism of prevention and control of infectious diseases is established, for public health emergent events, particularly major infectious diseases. The scheduling problem of emergency medical supplies with Time-varying demand is analysed, and its solution examples is listed namely.
(6) An overview of the characteristics of accidents rescue and emergency rescue system in China is provided, and the influence factor on the emergency response and rescue resource needs is analysed. Taking into account regional differences, seasonal differences, differences in the occurrence time of accidents, the conceptual model of emergency response and rescue resource requirements is established. For major disaster accident, which there may be more than one rescue sites and insufficient rescue resource conditions exist, the rescue vehicle scheduling model with more than one start sites is presented. Due to randomness of the recovery vehicle travel time, chance constrained programming is used to processing the stochastic travel time of recovery vehicle, under mild assumptions on the probability distribution of stochastic parameters. A genetic algorithm is proposed to solve this model and experimental calculation is conducted to verify the solution approach.
因此,文中从区域应急物资的需求分析、应急物资储备体系、应急物资的调度几个方面进行研究,主要内容包括：
(1)结合我国应急管理对突发事件的分类框架和预案体系,细化突发事件的类别；提出不能沿用常态下物资按照其价值分类的方法,而应按使用价值对应急物资进行分类的原则,从紧急程度、使用范围和专门程度3维对应急物资分类,将应急物资分类与其储备保障方式紧密联系起来。
(2)搭建了应急物资需求分析的推理框架,将模糊证据理论、模糊案例推理等不确定理论分别应用于突发事件的评估和应急物资的需求分析。
(3)在分析我国应急物资储备现状的基础上,提出了建立区域应急物资储备体系的目标、原则及管理措施；并针对一类应急物资储备点选址布局问题建立了数学模型,根据问题的特点分2阶段利用粒子群算法和线性规划算法进行了求解算例分析。
(4)讨论灾害事件发生后应急物资的调度问题,考虑在应急物资需求数量较多和时间较为紧迫的前提下,以灾害损失最小为目标,建立了确定条件下的单品种和多品种应急物资调度数学模型,并进行了求解；针对道路运输时间的不确定性,运用模糊方法对模糊网络最大满意度路径进行了选取,在此基础上,讨论了模糊行程时间的应急物资调度问题及其求解方法。
(5)针对公共卫生事件,特别是发生重大传染病疫情时的应急物资调度问题进行研究；建立了基于传染病防控机理的应急医疗物资需求模型,然后分析了需求随时间变化的应急物资调度问题,分别给出了求解算例。
(6)概述了事故灾难救援的特点以及我国应急救援体系,分析了应急救援资源需求的影响因素,考虑地区差异、季节差异、事故发生的时间差异,建立了应急救援资源需求的概念模型；针对重大事故灾难发生时,可能出现多个救援需求点、存在救援资源不足的一类情况,考虑救援车辆行程时间的随机性,建立了多个救援出发点的应急车辆调度模型,对救援车辆行程时间的随机性采用概率分布和机会约束规划进行处理,并运用遗传算法给出了求解算例。
Emergent events is characteristic of burstiness and urgency, a high degree of uncertainty, complexity, destructive, persistent and derivatives, inevitability and controllability. To minimize the loss caused by emergent events as far as possible, the effective rescue and aid measures must be taken immediately. In the course of the emergency preparedness and response, both for casualties'rescue, safe transfer of a variety of materials and equipments (including hazardous materials and equipments, etc.), or sanitary and anti-epidemic, restoration and reconstruction after the events, so a range of assistance activities all require a large amount of emergency supplies. However, due to the research of emergency management in China start relatively late, the research of emergency resources management is relatively weak. In the actual emergency rescue practice, the situation also exists that as a result of emergency resources reserves and scheduling issues cannot meet the needs of rescue activities in a timely manner. In order to guarantee the smooth implementation of the contingency plans and the development of emergent rescue activities, it is necessary to systematic study on the reserves, allocation, dispatches and transport of emergency resources, for the purpose of the establishment of regional emergency resources security system.
Therefore, the requirement analysis of a regional emergency resources, the storage system and scheduling of emergency resources is discussed, the contents of the main research in this paper include:
(1) Based on the emergent events classification framework and the contingency plans system of the emergency management in China, further detail of emergencies category is proposed. The method of categories in accordance with material value under normal condition is not fit for emergent situations. Following the principle of categorization accordingto the use value of emergency resources, it can be classified from the degree of urgency, scope of use and the degree of specialization of 3D on the classification, so that we can make relationships between categorization of emergency resources and its reserve way closely.
(2) The reasoning framework of the requirement analysis of emergency resources is build, and fuzzy Dempster-Shafer theory and fuzzy case-based reasoning of uncertainty theory is respectively applied to the assessment of emergent events and the requirement analysis of emergency resources.
(3) Based on the analysis of the current situation of emergency materials storage in China, the principles and goals of the establishment of regional emergency materials storage system and its management measures are proposed, a kind of emergency materials deposited site layout problem is discussed with established mathematical model, and the solution of the model divided into 2 phases using Particle Swarm Optimization and linear programming algorithm for example analysis.
(4) The scheduling problems of the emergency materials after disaster is discussed. Considering more munerous and urgency of the needs of emergency materials, scheduling mathematical model of single-species and a variety of emergency materials in determining the conditions is established to minimize the disaster loss as the target, and its solution is made. For the uncertainty of road transport time, fuzzy set methods is used to select the maximum satisfaction path on fuzzy network, and scheduling problem of emergency materials with the fuzzy travel time and its solution is discussed.
(5) Emergency medical supplies demand model based on the mechanism of prevention and control of infectious diseases is established, for public health emergent events, particularly major infectious diseases. The scheduling problem of emergency medical supplies with Time-varying demand is analysed, and its solution examples is listed namely.
(6) An overview of the characteristics of accidents rescue and emergency rescue system in China is provided, and the influence factor on the emergency response and rescue resource needs is analysed. Taking into account regional differences, seasonal differences, differences in the occurrence time of accidents, the conceptual model of emergency response and rescue resource requirements is established. For major disaster accident, which there may be more than one rescue sites and insufficient rescue resource conditions exist, the rescue vehicle scheduling model with more than one start sites is presented. Due to randomness of the recovery vehicle travel time, chance constrained programming is used to processing the stochastic travel time of recovery vehicle, under mild assumptions on the probability distribution of stochastic parameters. A genetic algorithm is proposed to solve this model and experimental calculation is conducted to verify the solution approach.
引文
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