基于物质流分析方法的广东省循环经济研究
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摘要
本论文在Eurostat (2001)提出的国家物质流核算的基础上,调整形成区域物质流核算框架及指标体系,并应用于广东省的环境经济系统中,构建广东省的物质流账户,对广东省物质流规模和结构进行客观评估,在此基础上,将核算数据结合社会经济类指标对广东省物质输入、输出和物质消耗的强度与效率进行分析,并应用IPAT方法对区域过程排放进行分析来反映人口、经济和技术影响因子的贡献度,通过KFC理论来说明广东省经济发展与环境污染之间的关系,为广东省循环经济发展提供对策和建议。根据以上分析可以得出,广东省在2000-2008年期间：
1、人均工业废水排放量和人均工业固废排放量与人均收入呈现倒“U”型,符合环境库兹涅茨曲线,而人均工业废气排放量与人均收入变化对大体上符合环境库兹涅茨曲线。随着广东省产业结构的升级和技术的进步,环境污染在环境容量的安全界限已达转折点,环境压力有所缓和。对区域内过程排放进行IPAT分析发现,区域内过程排放主要是受技术水平不断提高的限制下有所缓和,但是在国民福利和人口增长的带动下有进一步的增长。
2、区域内物质消耗强度是国家平均消耗水平的两倍,接近于发达国家水平。物质使用效率接近于上个世纪九十年代发达国家水平,美国为307美元／吨,德国为360.9美元／吨,区域内物质输入和输出强度的年均增长率分别为3.78%和1.44%,而单位GDP物质输入和单位GDP物质排放率年均下降率分别为6.40%和6.94%,广东省生产力水平有所上升,人们生活水平有所提高。
3、广东省经济的发展对物质输入量不断增加,同时输出量也持续攀升,广东省物质需求主要以工业矿物和建筑矿物输入为主,广东省经济发展特征是工业经济增长。第一产业中农业占主导地位,对生物产量的贡献每年都保持在70%以上。环境污染中,固体废弃物污染比较严重,主要是以生活垃圾为主,空气污染中,二氧化硫的危害依然比较大,虽然增长速度不快,但是排放量依然庞大,工业粉尘的治理取得了效果,下降了65.96%。耗散物质的危害比较严重,在此期间,它的总量增加了将近一倍,加剧了环境压力,广东省经济快速增长以资源的大量消耗和环境破坏为代价来实现的,经济增长主要依赖于区外进口。
4、广东省对外需求以能源为主,进口物质主要是以化石燃料为主,每年都在80%以上,广东省在此期间进行了大量的基础设施建设和房屋建设,对工业矿物和建筑矿物的需求最快,增长了近3倍多。出口物质中,化石燃料和矿产品不相上下,各占一半,生物类出口只有极小一部分。
5、水的输入量在增长中趋于稳定,保持在230亿吨左右,废水排放中生活污水要大于工业废水,但是工业废水的排放量大幅度上升,在发展期间翻了一番,主要是由于广东省工业发展的需要排放大量的工业废水。
根据以上结论,通过技术创新来提高资源和能源的利用效率,提高废物的再资源化率来减少废物的排放量,节约和再利用资源,缓解经济发展和环境之间的矛盾,实现经济效益的最大化,对广东省循环经济的发展具有重要的意义。
This study is based on national material flow accounting Eurostat (2001) proposed and form the regional material flow accounting framework and indicator system, applied to the environment in Guangdong Province in the economy system, building material flow accounts in Guangdong Province. On this basis, the accounting data combined with socio-economic class of indicators of material flow analysis, using method of IPAT analysis regional emissions to reflect contribution of demographic, economic and technological factors, reflecting the relationship between environmental pollution and economic development by KFC theory, providing countermeasures and suggestions for circular economy. Based on the above analysis conclude, during the period 2000-2008:
Firstly, per capita industrial waste water and per capita industrial solid waste emissions inverted "U" type with per capita income, meet the KFC, and per capita Industrial emissions and per capita income basically meet the KFC. With the upgrading of industrial structure and technological progress, environmental pollution has reached a turning point in the next under the safety limits of environmental capacity, environmental pressures eased. Through the IPAT we can find that the process of regional emissions are mainly due to the increasing technical level constraints eased, but growing with driving of the national welfare and population.
Secondly, intensity of material consumption within the region is twice the national average consumption level, close to the level of developed countries. Substance use efficiency close to the level of developed countries nineties. Region of material input and output intensity grow rates of 3.78% and 1.44% average annual, and material input and emission of Unit of GDP unit decline 6.40% and 6.94% annual, productivity and the living standards have increased.
Third, material inputs continue to increase, while output has continued to rise, Material needs mainly major in industrial minerals and construction minerals enter, industry-based economic growth is the main, agriculture dominate in the primary industry, on the contribution of biomass every year to maintain more than 70%. Solid waste pollution is serious, and is based mainly domestic garbage, damage of sulfur dioxide is still relatively large, although the growth rate slow, but emissions are still large, industrial dust achieved results, decrease 65.96%. The harm of dissipation is more serious, in this period, it nearly doubled the amount, increasing environmental pressures, Guangdong's rapid economic growth in resource consumption and environmental damage a large number of the expense to achieve, economy growth is mainly dependent on outside imports.
Fourth, foreign demand is mainly of energy-based, import materials are mainly of fossil fuel-based, more than 80% every year. In this period there are a large number of infrastructure and housing construction, the needs of industrial minerals and construction minerals is the fastest, Increased by nearly 3 times. Equally divided between fossil fuels and mining products in the export of material, only a tiny fraction of biological export.
Fifth, enter the amount of water was stable in the growth and maintain at 230 million tons, Sewage is more than industrial waste water in the waste water, But the emissions of industrial wastewater increased substantially, because of industrial development in Guangdong Province is discharging a large number of industrial waste water.
Based on the above conclusions, improve resource use efficiency, reduce waste emissions, conservation and reuse resources, alleviate the economic contradictions between development and the environment, maximization of economic returns, they are very important for the circular economy in the Guangdong Province.
1、人均工业废水排放量和人均工业固废排放量与人均收入呈现倒“U”型,符合环境库兹涅茨曲线,而人均工业废气排放量与人均收入变化对大体上符合环境库兹涅茨曲线。随着广东省产业结构的升级和技术的进步,环境污染在环境容量的安全界限已达转折点,环境压力有所缓和。对区域内过程排放进行IPAT分析发现,区域内过程排放主要是受技术水平不断提高的限制下有所缓和,但是在国民福利和人口增长的带动下有进一步的增长。
2、区域内物质消耗强度是国家平均消耗水平的两倍,接近于发达国家水平。物质使用效率接近于上个世纪九十年代发达国家水平,美国为307美元／吨,德国为360.9美元／吨,区域内物质输入和输出强度的年均增长率分别为3.78%和1.44%,而单位GDP物质输入和单位GDP物质排放率年均下降率分别为6.40%和6.94%,广东省生产力水平有所上升,人们生活水平有所提高。
3、广东省经济的发展对物质输入量不断增加,同时输出量也持续攀升,广东省物质需求主要以工业矿物和建筑矿物输入为主,广东省经济发展特征是工业经济增长。第一产业中农业占主导地位,对生物产量的贡献每年都保持在70%以上。环境污染中,固体废弃物污染比较严重,主要是以生活垃圾为主,空气污染中,二氧化硫的危害依然比较大,虽然增长速度不快,但是排放量依然庞大,工业粉尘的治理取得了效果,下降了65.96%。耗散物质的危害比较严重,在此期间,它的总量增加了将近一倍,加剧了环境压力,广东省经济快速增长以资源的大量消耗和环境破坏为代价来实现的,经济增长主要依赖于区外进口。
4、广东省对外需求以能源为主,进口物质主要是以化石燃料为主,每年都在80%以上,广东省在此期间进行了大量的基础设施建设和房屋建设,对工业矿物和建筑矿物的需求最快,增长了近3倍多。出口物质中,化石燃料和矿产品不相上下,各占一半,生物类出口只有极小一部分。
5、水的输入量在增长中趋于稳定,保持在230亿吨左右,废水排放中生活污水要大于工业废水,但是工业废水的排放量大幅度上升,在发展期间翻了一番,主要是由于广东省工业发展的需要排放大量的工业废水。
根据以上结论,通过技术创新来提高资源和能源的利用效率,提高废物的再资源化率来减少废物的排放量,节约和再利用资源,缓解经济发展和环境之间的矛盾,实现经济效益的最大化,对广东省循环经济的发展具有重要的意义。
This study is based on national material flow accounting Eurostat (2001) proposed and form the regional material flow accounting framework and indicator system, applied to the environment in Guangdong Province in the economy system, building material flow accounts in Guangdong Province. On this basis, the accounting data combined with socio-economic class of indicators of material flow analysis, using method of IPAT analysis regional emissions to reflect contribution of demographic, economic and technological factors, reflecting the relationship between environmental pollution and economic development by KFC theory, providing countermeasures and suggestions for circular economy. Based on the above analysis conclude, during the period 2000-2008:
Firstly, per capita industrial waste water and per capita industrial solid waste emissions inverted "U" type with per capita income, meet the KFC, and per capita Industrial emissions and per capita income basically meet the KFC. With the upgrading of industrial structure and technological progress, environmental pollution has reached a turning point in the next under the safety limits of environmental capacity, environmental pressures eased. Through the IPAT we can find that the process of regional emissions are mainly due to the increasing technical level constraints eased, but growing with driving of the national welfare and population.
Secondly, intensity of material consumption within the region is twice the national average consumption level, close to the level of developed countries. Substance use efficiency close to the level of developed countries nineties. Region of material input and output intensity grow rates of 3.78% and 1.44% average annual, and material input and emission of Unit of GDP unit decline 6.40% and 6.94% annual, productivity and the living standards have increased.
Third, material inputs continue to increase, while output has continued to rise, Material needs mainly major in industrial minerals and construction minerals enter, industry-based economic growth is the main, agriculture dominate in the primary industry, on the contribution of biomass every year to maintain more than 70%. Solid waste pollution is serious, and is based mainly domestic garbage, damage of sulfur dioxide is still relatively large, although the growth rate slow, but emissions are still large, industrial dust achieved results, decrease 65.96%. The harm of dissipation is more serious, in this period, it nearly doubled the amount, increasing environmental pressures, Guangdong's rapid economic growth in resource consumption and environmental damage a large number of the expense to achieve, economy growth is mainly dependent on outside imports.
Fourth, foreign demand is mainly of energy-based, import materials are mainly of fossil fuel-based, more than 80% every year. In this period there are a large number of infrastructure and housing construction, the needs of industrial minerals and construction minerals is the fastest, Increased by nearly 3 times. Equally divided between fossil fuels and mining products in the export of material, only a tiny fraction of biological export.
Fifth, enter the amount of water was stable in the growth and maintain at 230 million tons, Sewage is more than industrial waste water in the waste water, But the emissions of industrial wastewater increased substantially, because of industrial development in Guangdong Province is discharging a large number of industrial waste water.
Based on the above conclusions, improve resource use efficiency, reduce waste emissions, conservation and reuse resources, alleviate the economic contradictions between development and the environment, maximization of economic returns, they are very important for the circular economy in the Guangdong Province.
引文
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