中国城市化与经济发展关系研究
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摘要
城市化是社会生产力发展所引起的人类生产方式、生活方式和居住方式改变的过程,是政治、经济、历史、文化和地域条件演绎发展的过程,也是现代化的必由之路和重要标志,城市化进程是对人类社会产生重大影响的社会过程,是当今世界上重要的社会现象和经济现象之一。推进城市化进程不仅是实现二元经济向一元经济转变的根本途径,而且是化解有效需求不足、促进经济持续高速增长的战略措施,同时对于促进产业结构升级和减少贫困都有重要意义,对于实现可持续发展和构建和谐社会以及提高国际竞争力有着十分重要的意义。为此,研究我国城市化和经济发展之间的关系是十分有意义且是非常必要的。
本文在借鉴已有研究成果的基础上,运用从理论到实践,从一般到具体,从外围到内核的思路和方法,以科学发展观和构建和谐社会的视角,系统分析了我国城市化与经济发展相关的几个关键问题,即:经济增长、产业结构调整和国民生活,较深入的分析了我国城市化对这三个领域的实际影响和相互作用的关系,从而为政府制定我国城市化发展策略提供理论依据和相关政策建议。
(1)本文的主要研究方法
作者立足于理论分析和实证分析相结合,根据研究内容和数据特征分布分别采用了不同的研究分析方法,其中包括数理模型分析、现代计量分析、灰色关联分析和动态经济仿真技术。
(2)主要研究内容和结论
全文的研究内容与相关结论主要包括以下四个方面:
第一、城市化与经济增长之间的关系。在本文的第3章构建了城市化与经济增长的数理模型,该模型将政府制度的综合影响通过城乡居民的生产活动传递到城乡二元经济结构体中,从而影响城乡劳动和迁移决策,试图分析政府制度因素对城市化的影响程度。研究证明提高城市化水平对经济增长的促进作用是有条件的,这意味着只有当地政府在正确了解本地区的生产结构和技术发展水平的基础上来制定相应的城市化政策,才能达到通过城市化来推进经济增长,增加国民福利的目标,对于我国幅员辽阔,各区域异质性大有重要的指导意义。在数理模型分析的基础之上,第4章基于我国改革开放以来的统计数据,对我国人均GDP和城市化率进行了实证分析。分析发现,我国城市化和经济增长之间存在长期稳定的关系,这是由于我国经济增长引起了产业结构变动,规模经济、聚集经济效应等促使企业向城市聚集,这必然在经济增长过程中导致大量农村人口向城市转移,引起城市化水平提高。而实证同时也发现,城市化对经济的直接影响力有限,这是由于城市化快速发展促进了大量农村富余劳动力从传统农业向二、三产业转移,刺激了社会需求和社会投资,提高了全社会劳动生产率等直接的促进了经济的发展。但城市化对经济的促进作用更多是通过其所带来的聚集经济加速物质资本、人力资本和知识资本等要素的积累间接的促进了经济增长。此外,我国在城市化推进的时候,产生积极作用的同时也伴随着一些负面作用,包括农村劳动力进城带来的城市失业、贫困、犯罪问题和交通、污染等问题,这一定程度上消弱了城市化对经济增长的促进作用。这也表明不能单纯依靠人口大规模转移到城市来提高城市化水平从而达到促进经济增长的目的,经济增长更应依赖于产业的整体技术水平的提升、经济增长方式的转变、科技技术进步和充分发挥市场机制对转变经济增长方式的引导作用等等。
第二、城市化和产业结构之间的关系。第5章采用现代计量分析方法中的协整理论分析了我国城市化和产业结构之间的数量关系。分析发现,城市化水平与三次产业的产值结构和从业人员结构存在长期稳定的比例关系,三次产业的产值结构和从业人员结构的改变都会引起城市化水平的变化。就影响程度而言,第一产业对城市化变化的影响最大,后面依次是第二产业和第三产业;但反过来,城市化分别对三次产业的产值结构的影响和对从业人员结构的影响则各有不同。结果表明,目前我国的城市化进程主要是对农村剩余人口的吸收容纳过程,并未影响第一产业的生产率,同时城市化推动了工业化,提高了第三产业的比重,有利于产业结构的调整,实现产业优化,从而推动经济增长,是走向现代化的必然结果。
第三、城市化和国民生活之间的关系。本文的第6章从城乡收入差距和贫困城市化转移的角度来分析伴随我国城市化进程取得高速经济发展,同时存在不可忽视的国民生活问题。在城市化和城乡收入差距问题的研究中,采用了结构建模方法和协整理论分析方法。分析发现,城乡人均收入差距和城市化互为因果关系,但城市化对城乡收入差距扩大的影响较强,而反向影响则弱得多。这说明我国城乡收入差距的不断扩大虽然是众多因素综合作用的结果,但城市化进程和城市的偏向政策是其中较为重要的因素。本文根据数据特征,采用关联分析方法来研究城市化和贫困问题。结果表明,随着城市化的推进,我国总体贫困人口数量在迅速减少,城乡的贫困人口比例也在迅速下降,但贫困城市化率有逐渐上升的趋势,且与城市化率有较强的正向关联关系。这一结果揭示出,我们政府在制定城市化政策时要城乡兼顾、工业反哺农业、均衡发展,才能减少城乡差距;政府在大力发展经济时要完善收入分配机制,才能减少贫困,最终促进整个社会的和谐发展。
第四、关于合意城市化率。本文第7章在数理模型分析的基础上丰富和扩充了合意城市化率的概念。采用经济动态仿真的方法,建立了城市化仿真模型。模拟了在完全市场经济的情况下,允许居民自由迁移进行趋利活动,并尽量根据我国的实际情况来设置模拟环境参数。该仿真模型运行的结果显示出,城市化曲线一开始非常缓慢,然后快速增长。通过设置两种典型经济环境的模拟运行发现,在有政府干预的环境中,城市化后期因城乡社会财富差距减少,使得城市水平在85%附近趋于稳定,呈现出典型的诺瑟姆倒S曲线特征。如果政府通过财政政策和其他经济政策进一步加强城市对农村的反哺,我国的城市化率有望在70%到80%之间达到诺瑟姆曲线的拐点。建议在我国城市化率超过43.9%的今天,政府在大力提高城市化水平的同时,更应着重解决和谐城市的构建问题,如缩小城乡差别,降低贫困城市化率,给予进城的民工比较平等的市民待遇等方面。
本文的创新之处体现在以下几点,首先是研究方法的创新,作者用定性的数理模型、定量的计量经济学和经济动态仿真三种方法对城市化和经济发展相关问题进行了系统的分析研究,尤其是将经济动态仿真用于城市化问题研究,国内至今未见报道。其次是研究内容的创新,本文从系统论,科学发展观和建立和谐社会的视角出发来研究城市化问题,看到城市化对社会经济的影响不仅仅局限于经济增长,而是扩大到经济发展这个更宽更大的视野。作者站在系统论的角度看待城市化与经济社会的相互影响,不再孤立地对待由城市化所引起的每个问题。从与经济发展相关的几个关键问题—经济增长、产业结构和国民生活三个方面分析了城市化与经济发展的内在关系,进而提出相应的政策建议。
最后,本文丰富和扩充了合意城市化率的概念,并通过经济动态仿真得到了验证。
Caused by the development of social, urbanization is a process of changing in the pattern of producting, lifestyles and living. It is a development process in the mode of political, economic, historical, cultural and geographical. The process of urbanization on human society has a major impact on the social advancement, and this is currently the world's most important social and economic phenomenon. With China's rapid economic development and the rapid urbanization process, China has received increasing attention of the internation. Push forward the process of urbanization is advantage not only to changing the dual economic structure, increasing the effective demand, but also to promoting the sustained and fast economic growth. At the same time, urbanization can narrow the gap between urban and rural incomes and reducing poverty to achieving the goal of sustainable development and build a harmonious.
Using the method of theory and empirical analysis and basing on the concept of scientific development and harmonious society perspective, this paper systematic analysises inherent relationship between urbanization and economic development from several key issues related, namely economic growth and industrial and national life.
(1) Research Methods
On the basis of content and characteristics of the statistical data, this paper uses different analysis methods, which includes mathematical model of modern quantitative analysis method, grey correlation analysis and dynamic simulation of the economy.
(2) Research Contents and Conclusions
Firstly, this paper researches on the relationship between urbanization and economic growth. Chapter3 use the method of mathematical analysis and chapter4 use the method of empirical analysis. This paper introduces the government's combined effects into the dual urban-rural economic structure, which affecting the urban and rural's migration decision thought economic activities. The analysis showed that, there is a long-term and stable relationship between China's urbanization and economic growth, and economic growth is a positive Granger cause for the urbanization, but urbanization is not Granger cause for economic growth.
Secondly, this paper researches on the relationship between urbanization and industrial structure. Using the modern methods of quantitative analysis and cointegration theoretical, Chapter 5 of this paper foucs on the relationship between urbanization and readjustment of the industrial structure. The research's conclusion shows that, there is a long-term and stable relationship between China's urbanization and industrial structure. The changes of the ratio of outputs value and employment has strong effect of the changes in the urbanization level. In terms of the impact, the change of the ratio of employment has greater impact than outputs values.
Thirdly, this paper researches on the relationship between urbanization and national life. Chapter 6 of this paper focus on the urban-rural income inequality and urbanization of poverty, which are the important issues in a national life and cannot be ignored. With China's urban-rural income gap growing, despite it combined of many factors, the process of urbanization and urban bias policy is undoubtedly an important factor. Urban-rural income gap is Granger Cause of urbanization and urbanization is Granger Cause of urban-rural income gap, but the effects of urbanization on urban-rural income gap are stronger than urban-rural income gap on urbanization. And with the progress of China's urbanization, China's overall poverty-stricken population declines rapidly both in the urban and the rural, at the same way, proportion of the population decreases rapidly both in the urban and the rural, but there is a gradual upward trend in urbanization urbanization of poverty. This chapter uses the methods of structural modeling methods and cointegration analysis. The study found that urbanization and urbanization of poverty have a stronger association.
Fourth, this paper researches on the optimal urbanization ratio. Based on the mathematical model, Chapter 7 enriches and expands the concept of optimal urbanization ratio. And based on the method of economic simulation, this chapter establishs a urbanization simulation model. The model simulates a free market economy, where the residents can move freely without any cost to gain more profit and sets parameters of the simulation environment in accordance to the actual situation. The simulation model showes rural residents move to the urban for rich, which has more efficient production and more wealth, and this trend reflected in the urbanization curve, which performances a very slow start, and then rapid growth.
The simulation model designes two typical economic environment, one is no government intervention, another is has government intervention by tax and fiscal expenditure. If without the government intervention, the great majority of the people moved to urban and urbanization rate trends to 1. But if with the government intervention, at late stage of the economic development, wealth gap between urban and rural areas decreases, urbanization rate trends to stable around 85 percent and the urbanization curve looks like the typical Northan S-curve.
本文在借鉴已有研究成果的基础上,运用从理论到实践,从一般到具体,从外围到内核的思路和方法,以科学发展观和构建和谐社会的视角,系统分析了我国城市化与经济发展相关的几个关键问题,即:经济增长、产业结构调整和国民生活,较深入的分析了我国城市化对这三个领域的实际影响和相互作用的关系,从而为政府制定我国城市化发展策略提供理论依据和相关政策建议。
(1)本文的主要研究方法
作者立足于理论分析和实证分析相结合,根据研究内容和数据特征分布分别采用了不同的研究分析方法,其中包括数理模型分析、现代计量分析、灰色关联分析和动态经济仿真技术。
(2)主要研究内容和结论
全文的研究内容与相关结论主要包括以下四个方面:
第一、城市化与经济增长之间的关系。在本文的第3章构建了城市化与经济增长的数理模型,该模型将政府制度的综合影响通过城乡居民的生产活动传递到城乡二元经济结构体中,从而影响城乡劳动和迁移决策,试图分析政府制度因素对城市化的影响程度。研究证明提高城市化水平对经济增长的促进作用是有条件的,这意味着只有当地政府在正确了解本地区的生产结构和技术发展水平的基础上来制定相应的城市化政策,才能达到通过城市化来推进经济增长,增加国民福利的目标,对于我国幅员辽阔,各区域异质性大有重要的指导意义。在数理模型分析的基础之上,第4章基于我国改革开放以来的统计数据,对我国人均GDP和城市化率进行了实证分析。分析发现,我国城市化和经济增长之间存在长期稳定的关系,这是由于我国经济增长引起了产业结构变动,规模经济、聚集经济效应等促使企业向城市聚集,这必然在经济增长过程中导致大量农村人口向城市转移,引起城市化水平提高。而实证同时也发现,城市化对经济的直接影响力有限,这是由于城市化快速发展促进了大量农村富余劳动力从传统农业向二、三产业转移,刺激了社会需求和社会投资,提高了全社会劳动生产率等直接的促进了经济的发展。但城市化对经济的促进作用更多是通过其所带来的聚集经济加速物质资本、人力资本和知识资本等要素的积累间接的促进了经济增长。此外,我国在城市化推进的时候,产生积极作用的同时也伴随着一些负面作用,包括农村劳动力进城带来的城市失业、贫困、犯罪问题和交通、污染等问题,这一定程度上消弱了城市化对经济增长的促进作用。这也表明不能单纯依靠人口大规模转移到城市来提高城市化水平从而达到促进经济增长的目的,经济增长更应依赖于产业的整体技术水平的提升、经济增长方式的转变、科技技术进步和充分发挥市场机制对转变经济增长方式的引导作用等等。
第二、城市化和产业结构之间的关系。第5章采用现代计量分析方法中的协整理论分析了我国城市化和产业结构之间的数量关系。分析发现,城市化水平与三次产业的产值结构和从业人员结构存在长期稳定的比例关系,三次产业的产值结构和从业人员结构的改变都会引起城市化水平的变化。就影响程度而言,第一产业对城市化变化的影响最大,后面依次是第二产业和第三产业;但反过来,城市化分别对三次产业的产值结构的影响和对从业人员结构的影响则各有不同。结果表明,目前我国的城市化进程主要是对农村剩余人口的吸收容纳过程,并未影响第一产业的生产率,同时城市化推动了工业化,提高了第三产业的比重,有利于产业结构的调整,实现产业优化,从而推动经济增长,是走向现代化的必然结果。
第三、城市化和国民生活之间的关系。本文的第6章从城乡收入差距和贫困城市化转移的角度来分析伴随我国城市化进程取得高速经济发展,同时存在不可忽视的国民生活问题。在城市化和城乡收入差距问题的研究中,采用了结构建模方法和协整理论分析方法。分析发现,城乡人均收入差距和城市化互为因果关系,但城市化对城乡收入差距扩大的影响较强,而反向影响则弱得多。这说明我国城乡收入差距的不断扩大虽然是众多因素综合作用的结果,但城市化进程和城市的偏向政策是其中较为重要的因素。本文根据数据特征,采用关联分析方法来研究城市化和贫困问题。结果表明,随着城市化的推进,我国总体贫困人口数量在迅速减少,城乡的贫困人口比例也在迅速下降,但贫困城市化率有逐渐上升的趋势,且与城市化率有较强的正向关联关系。这一结果揭示出,我们政府在制定城市化政策时要城乡兼顾、工业反哺农业、均衡发展,才能减少城乡差距;政府在大力发展经济时要完善收入分配机制,才能减少贫困,最终促进整个社会的和谐发展。
第四、关于合意城市化率。本文第7章在数理模型分析的基础上丰富和扩充了合意城市化率的概念。采用经济动态仿真的方法,建立了城市化仿真模型。模拟了在完全市场经济的情况下,允许居民自由迁移进行趋利活动,并尽量根据我国的实际情况来设置模拟环境参数。该仿真模型运行的结果显示出,城市化曲线一开始非常缓慢,然后快速增长。通过设置两种典型经济环境的模拟运行发现,在有政府干预的环境中,城市化后期因城乡社会财富差距减少,使得城市水平在85%附近趋于稳定,呈现出典型的诺瑟姆倒S曲线特征。如果政府通过财政政策和其他经济政策进一步加强城市对农村的反哺,我国的城市化率有望在70%到80%之间达到诺瑟姆曲线的拐点。建议在我国城市化率超过43.9%的今天,政府在大力提高城市化水平的同时,更应着重解决和谐城市的构建问题,如缩小城乡差别,降低贫困城市化率,给予进城的民工比较平等的市民待遇等方面。
本文的创新之处体现在以下几点,首先是研究方法的创新,作者用定性的数理模型、定量的计量经济学和经济动态仿真三种方法对城市化和经济发展相关问题进行了系统的分析研究,尤其是将经济动态仿真用于城市化问题研究,国内至今未见报道。其次是研究内容的创新,本文从系统论,科学发展观和建立和谐社会的视角出发来研究城市化问题,看到城市化对社会经济的影响不仅仅局限于经济增长,而是扩大到经济发展这个更宽更大的视野。作者站在系统论的角度看待城市化与经济社会的相互影响,不再孤立地对待由城市化所引起的每个问题。从与经济发展相关的几个关键问题—经济增长、产业结构和国民生活三个方面分析了城市化与经济发展的内在关系,进而提出相应的政策建议。
最后,本文丰富和扩充了合意城市化率的概念,并通过经济动态仿真得到了验证。
Caused by the development of social, urbanization is a process of changing in the pattern of producting, lifestyles and living. It is a development process in the mode of political, economic, historical, cultural and geographical. The process of urbanization on human society has a major impact on the social advancement, and this is currently the world's most important social and economic phenomenon. With China's rapid economic development and the rapid urbanization process, China has received increasing attention of the internation. Push forward the process of urbanization is advantage not only to changing the dual economic structure, increasing the effective demand, but also to promoting the sustained and fast economic growth. At the same time, urbanization can narrow the gap between urban and rural incomes and reducing poverty to achieving the goal of sustainable development and build a harmonious.
Using the method of theory and empirical analysis and basing on the concept of scientific development and harmonious society perspective, this paper systematic analysises inherent relationship between urbanization and economic development from several key issues related, namely economic growth and industrial and national life.
(1) Research Methods
On the basis of content and characteristics of the statistical data, this paper uses different analysis methods, which includes mathematical model of modern quantitative analysis method, grey correlation analysis and dynamic simulation of the economy.
(2) Research Contents and Conclusions
Firstly, this paper researches on the relationship between urbanization and economic growth. Chapter3 use the method of mathematical analysis and chapter4 use the method of empirical analysis. This paper introduces the government's combined effects into the dual urban-rural economic structure, which affecting the urban and rural's migration decision thought economic activities. The analysis showed that, there is a long-term and stable relationship between China's urbanization and economic growth, and economic growth is a positive Granger cause for the urbanization, but urbanization is not Granger cause for economic growth.
Secondly, this paper researches on the relationship between urbanization and industrial structure. Using the modern methods of quantitative analysis and cointegration theoretical, Chapter 5 of this paper foucs on the relationship between urbanization and readjustment of the industrial structure. The research's conclusion shows that, there is a long-term and stable relationship between China's urbanization and industrial structure. The changes of the ratio of outputs value and employment has strong effect of the changes in the urbanization level. In terms of the impact, the change of the ratio of employment has greater impact than outputs values.
Thirdly, this paper researches on the relationship between urbanization and national life. Chapter 6 of this paper focus on the urban-rural income inequality and urbanization of poverty, which are the important issues in a national life and cannot be ignored. With China's urban-rural income gap growing, despite it combined of many factors, the process of urbanization and urban bias policy is undoubtedly an important factor. Urban-rural income gap is Granger Cause of urbanization and urbanization is Granger Cause of urban-rural income gap, but the effects of urbanization on urban-rural income gap are stronger than urban-rural income gap on urbanization. And with the progress of China's urbanization, China's overall poverty-stricken population declines rapidly both in the urban and the rural, at the same way, proportion of the population decreases rapidly both in the urban and the rural, but there is a gradual upward trend in urbanization urbanization of poverty. This chapter uses the methods of structural modeling methods and cointegration analysis. The study found that urbanization and urbanization of poverty have a stronger association.
Fourth, this paper researches on the optimal urbanization ratio. Based on the mathematical model, Chapter 7 enriches and expands the concept of optimal urbanization ratio. And based on the method of economic simulation, this chapter establishs a urbanization simulation model. The model simulates a free market economy, where the residents can move freely without any cost to gain more profit and sets parameters of the simulation environment in accordance to the actual situation. The simulation model showes rural residents move to the urban for rich, which has more efficient production and more wealth, and this trend reflected in the urbanization curve, which performances a very slow start, and then rapid growth.
The simulation model designes two typical economic environment, one is no government intervention, another is has government intervention by tax and fiscal expenditure. If without the government intervention, the great majority of the people moved to urban and urbanization rate trends to 1. But if with the government intervention, at late stage of the economic development, wealth gap between urban and rural areas decreases, urbanization rate trends to stable around 85 percent and the urbanization curve looks like the typical Northan S-curve.
引文
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