我国创业板上市公司成长性评价及投资价值研究
摘要
随着2009年我国创业板市场的正式挂牌成立,创业板上市公司成长性问题再次成为关注焦点。国外创业板市场发展实践表明,成长性是创业板市场以及创业板上市公司发展的核心问题。本文选择创业板上市公司成长性评价及投资价值作为选题,目的是在对创业板上市公司成长性评价的各种理论与模型进行梳理的基础上,确立影响创业板上市公司成长性的主要影响因素,建立更为精确实用的成长性评价模型。然后通过探究创业板上市公司的成长性、企业价值以及投资价值的关联性,分析创业板上市公司成长性与投资价值之间传导机制及作用机理,从而促使投资者对创业板上市公司的成长情况作出客观合理的评价,达到维护投资者利益以及促进创业板市场良性发展的双重目标。
本文在研究设计上包含两条主线,(1)创业板上市公司成长性的评价问题。(2)成长性与投资价值的传导机制关联性问题。一方面：对于创业板上市公司的评价问题主要是在对各种文献理论进行梳理的基础上,详细剖析影响创业板上市公司成长性的因素。在研究过程中发现,影响创业板上市公司的因素会随着经济环境的不断变化而表现出不同的特征,而从宏观与微观上把握创业板上市公司的影响因素是比较合理的一种方式。目前关于创业板上市成长性评价的方法比较多,是源于人们对创业板上市公司未来的发展能否保持持久稳定的一种自我释疑,但是各种评价方法由于在样本选择、数据搜集以及评价模型构建上各有不同,导致最终对创业板上市公司成长性评价得出的结论存在互相矛盾的情况,这严重影响了创业板上市公司成长性评价的科学性,对于创业板市场的发展也将产生不利的影响。因此创业板上市公司的成长性评价方法的选择,模型的构建以及具体的评价过程将是一个可能对现实世界的发展产生重要影响的研究事件。另一方面：成长性与投资价值的传导机制是本文的研究重点。创业板上市公司成长性与投资价值传导机制研究是一个较新的课题,它涉及到诸多方面因素,在成长性与投资价值之间存在许多难以量化的变量,例如企业基本面表现、价值创造能力释放、宏观政策影响,乃至投资者心理因素、投资者知识水平、对整个资本市场的判断、个人偏好等,因此研究成长性与投资价值之间的传导机制将是一个具有一定挑战的课题。从创业板市场的发展实践来看,研究上市公司成长性与投资价值将对创业板市场的利益各方产生重要的影响,对于整个创业板市场的发展具有十分重要的现实意义。基于此本文在充分利用现有资料和理论的基础上,对创业板上市公司成长性与投资价值内在逻辑以及数量关系进行分析和研究。
本文研究内容主要包含六个部分。第一部分是绪论部分。主要是对本文研究背景、目的、研究的意义、技术路线以及整体框架进行说明,对本文研究的不足以及创新点给予简单的介绍。
第二部分是文献综述部分。本课题的研究需要充分的理论深度与宽度,因此必须在梳理好各种文献理论的基础上进行,为此本文搜集了大量的相关研究文献,并经过精心的阅读与理解,以发现目前关于创业板上市成长性评价及投资价值研究相关领域先进的理论研究方法,从而为本文的研究奠定良好的理论基础。经过对文献理论的分类处理,发现目前针对创业板上市公司成长性的研究,主要集中在成长性与创业板市场关系、成长性影响因素以及成长性评价方法三个方面,针对成长性与投资价值的统一研究还十分少见。
第三部分是关于创业板上市公司成长性评价相关理论概述。主要对目前我国创业板市场的发展和创业板上市公司的成长性进行分析与评价,然后对创业板上市公司成长性以及投资价值的相关理论做了归纳、分析和总结,为本文后续的研究奠定基础。
第四部分是关于企业成长性评价方法的理论与实证分析。本文在分析创业板上市公司成长性影响因素的基础上拟建立衡量成长性的综合指标体系,通过将这些对成长性的影响因素予以量化并进行综合处理转化为成长性的具体得分,从而对公司成长性进行综合评价并为后续内容分析奠定前提和基础。在如何处理各种具体指标以综合反映成长性的方式上,笔者提出通过对衡量成长性的各种具体指标采用结合应用因子分析法和熵值法的方式将各具体指标转化成综合得分来综合评价创业板上市公司成长性,之所以选择将因子分析法和熵值法结合应用的方式是因为两种方法各有特点,而将两种方法结合应用既能够去除指标之间的相关性和重复性,又考虑了各个指标的变动幅度对综合评价的影响。
第五部分是关于创业板上市公司成长性与投资价值关系的规范与实证分析。在前面章节分析的基础上,首先从理论上探讨了创业板上市公司成长性与投资价值的关系,并力求通过分析成长性与企业价值以及投资价值之间的关联关系,来深入分析成长性与投资价值之间的内在逻辑关系。其次本文利用数量分析的方法,为了验证成长性与投资价值的关系,通过数量分析成长性与未来净利润增长率的相关性、成长性与企业价值的相关性、成长性与股价变动的相关性等一系列的实证研究分析创业板上市公司成长性与投资价值的内在联系。
第六部分是本文的建议与策略部分,该部分主要是在明确创业板上市公司成长性与投资价值关系的基础上,对如何实现创业板上市公司良性成长、提升自身的价值创造能力、保护投资者利益以及规范创业板市场提出针对性的建议和策略。在建议与策略部分,本文重点分为三个方面来提出相关的建议,一是从优化企业成长角度、二是保护投资者利益角度、三是创业板市场规范角度。优化公司成长性、保护投资者利益以及规范创业板市场是有机统一的,构建三位一体的创业板市场监管体系,提升创业板市场的运行效率,鼓励创业板上市公司加大资金投入来积极的进行技术创新,将是提高创业板上市公司运行效率,实现稳定发展的重要推动力量。
经过研究本文得到了一些非常有价值的结论,对于推动和优化创业板市场的发展,促进创业板上市公司稳定成长具有一定的启示和借鉴意义。当然本文的研究也存在一定的不足和缺陷,在创业板上市公司成长性评价及投资价值相关理论的分析和研究还缺乏进一步的深度与宽度,如因为变量因素难以量化原因,部分实证研究中考虑的变量因素不够全面,这将是未来需要重点改进的地方。
As the Growth Enterprise Market established in2009, the growth of enterprise become a hot topic. The development practice of foreign growth enterprise market show that growth is the core problem of Growth Enterprise Market and listed company. The research aim of this paper want to found the factors which affect the growth of listed company and establish the accurate evaluation model. Then this paper analyzes the realtion between growth, enterprise value and investment value so as to find the mechanism of action between growth and investment value of enterprise. The outcome of analyise could help investor make objective evaluation to the growth of listed company so that to safeguard the interests of investors and promote the benign development of the capital market.
This paper contains two main lines in research design,(1) Evaluation of listed company growth in the GEM.(2) The transmission mechanism and correlation between listed company growth and investment value. For the evaluation of listed company growth in the GEM this paper was mainly based on literature theory and detaily analyzed the factors affecting the growth of listed company in the Growth Enterprise Market. During the course of the research, factors influencing listed company growth in the Growth Enterprise Market will be with the changing economic environment and exhibits different characteristics, grasping factors affecting the growth of listed company is a way of reasonable from the macro and micro angle.
At present the method of evaluation is so more, But the various evaluation methods in the sample selection, data collection and evaluation model are different, resulting in the evaluation of listed company growth in the GEM is contradictory, which seriously affects the scientific evaluation of growth of listed company in the Growth Enterprise Market and will also have a negative impact for the development of the GEM.
On the other hand:conduction mechanism of growth and investment value is the focus of this paper. Reseaching on conduction mechanism between listed company growth and investment value is a relatively new subject, it involves many factors, there exist many difficult to quantify variables between growth and investment value. For example, these factorsci include the performance of enterprise fundamental, the release of value creation ability, the impact of macroeconomic policy, the psychological factors of investors, the investor knowledge level, the judgment of entire capital market, personal preferences and so on. So the research on conduction mechanism between growth and investment value will faced with huge challenge. But from the development practice of the GEM market, listed company growth and investment value will have an important impact on the the interests of all parties of GEM, which have very important practical significance to the development of the gem. This paper basing on full use of existing data and theory analyzes inner logic and the relationship between enterprise growth and investment value.
This paper mainly contains six parts. The first part is the introduction which mainly illustrated the research background, purpose, significance, the technical route and described the overall framework. At the same time this paper made simple introduction for problems of research and innovation points.
The second part is the literature review, the research needs theoretical depth and sufficient width therefore it must be based on summarizing all kinds of literature theory, this paper collects a large number of relevant research literature, and after reading carefully, in order to find some advanced theory research methods related evaluation of listed company growth and investment value,which lay a good theoretical basis for following research. After the classification of literature, this paper found that the research on the growth evaluation of listed company in the GEM mainly in three aspects, unified research for growth and investment value is very rare.
The third part analyzed the growth evaluation theory of Listed company in the GEM and the current development of China's venture capital market, then this paper analysed and evaluated the growth of listed company, and then has made the induction, analysis and summary to the related theory of the growth of listing copmpany and investment value so as to lay a foundation for the following research.
The fourth part is the theoretical and empirical analysis on the evaluation method. This paper has established the comprehensive index system based on the analysis to influencing factors and feature of growth of listed company, through these factors influencing growth is quantified and integrated into specific growth score, thus the growth evaluation lays on the premise and foundation for subsequent content analysis. That how to deal with specific indicators reflects the growth way, the author puts forward the idea using the combination of factor analysis and entropy method to evaluate the growth of listed company, Chosing factor analysis method and entropy method combined with application because of the two methods have their own characteristics, the combination of these two methods can both remove application correlation between the indexes and the repeatability, at same time they consider the effect of variation of each index to comprehensive evaluation.
The fifth part baseing on the analysis in the previous section, firstly this paper discussed the relationship between the growth of listed company and investment value in theory and the relation between growth and enterprise value and the investment value so as to analyze the internal logical relationship between growth and investment value. Then this paper was based on quantitative analysis, in order to verify the relationship between growth and investment value, through the analysis of correlation between growth and future profit growth rate, correlation between growth, enterprise value and stock price an so on so that it coudle find internal links between growth of listed company and investment value.
The sixth part is the suggestions and strategies of this paper, this part put forward some good and pertinency suggestions for how to realize the benign development of the growth enterprise market, optimizatize the growth of enterprises and protect the interests of investors based on the clear relation between growth of listed company and investment value.
Through resrarch this paper obtains some valuable conclusions, which has some inspiration for promoting the development and optimization of the GEM and boosting the stable growth of listed company. Of course, this research also has certain insufficiency and defects, the relevant theory and empirical analysis of growth evaluation and investment value still lacks the depth and further width which will be the areas of improvement in future.
本文在研究设计上包含两条主线,(1)创业板上市公司成长性的评价问题。(2)成长性与投资价值的传导机制关联性问题。一方面：对于创业板上市公司的评价问题主要是在对各种文献理论进行梳理的基础上,详细剖析影响创业板上市公司成长性的因素。在研究过程中发现,影响创业板上市公司的因素会随着经济环境的不断变化而表现出不同的特征,而从宏观与微观上把握创业板上市公司的影响因素是比较合理的一种方式。目前关于创业板上市成长性评价的方法比较多,是源于人们对创业板上市公司未来的发展能否保持持久稳定的一种自我释疑,但是各种评价方法由于在样本选择、数据搜集以及评价模型构建上各有不同,导致最终对创业板上市公司成长性评价得出的结论存在互相矛盾的情况,这严重影响了创业板上市公司成长性评价的科学性,对于创业板市场的发展也将产生不利的影响。因此创业板上市公司的成长性评价方法的选择,模型的构建以及具体的评价过程将是一个可能对现实世界的发展产生重要影响的研究事件。另一方面：成长性与投资价值的传导机制是本文的研究重点。创业板上市公司成长性与投资价值传导机制研究是一个较新的课题,它涉及到诸多方面因素,在成长性与投资价值之间存在许多难以量化的变量,例如企业基本面表现、价值创造能力释放、宏观政策影响,乃至投资者心理因素、投资者知识水平、对整个资本市场的判断、个人偏好等,因此研究成长性与投资价值之间的传导机制将是一个具有一定挑战的课题。从创业板市场的发展实践来看,研究上市公司成长性与投资价值将对创业板市场的利益各方产生重要的影响,对于整个创业板市场的发展具有十分重要的现实意义。基于此本文在充分利用现有资料和理论的基础上,对创业板上市公司成长性与投资价值内在逻辑以及数量关系进行分析和研究。
本文研究内容主要包含六个部分。第一部分是绪论部分。主要是对本文研究背景、目的、研究的意义、技术路线以及整体框架进行说明,对本文研究的不足以及创新点给予简单的介绍。
第二部分是文献综述部分。本课题的研究需要充分的理论深度与宽度,因此必须在梳理好各种文献理论的基础上进行,为此本文搜集了大量的相关研究文献,并经过精心的阅读与理解,以发现目前关于创业板上市成长性评价及投资价值研究相关领域先进的理论研究方法,从而为本文的研究奠定良好的理论基础。经过对文献理论的分类处理,发现目前针对创业板上市公司成长性的研究,主要集中在成长性与创业板市场关系、成长性影响因素以及成长性评价方法三个方面,针对成长性与投资价值的统一研究还十分少见。
第三部分是关于创业板上市公司成长性评价相关理论概述。主要对目前我国创业板市场的发展和创业板上市公司的成长性进行分析与评价,然后对创业板上市公司成长性以及投资价值的相关理论做了归纳、分析和总结,为本文后续的研究奠定基础。
第四部分是关于企业成长性评价方法的理论与实证分析。本文在分析创业板上市公司成长性影响因素的基础上拟建立衡量成长性的综合指标体系,通过将这些对成长性的影响因素予以量化并进行综合处理转化为成长性的具体得分,从而对公司成长性进行综合评价并为后续内容分析奠定前提和基础。在如何处理各种具体指标以综合反映成长性的方式上,笔者提出通过对衡量成长性的各种具体指标采用结合应用因子分析法和熵值法的方式将各具体指标转化成综合得分来综合评价创业板上市公司成长性,之所以选择将因子分析法和熵值法结合应用的方式是因为两种方法各有特点,而将两种方法结合应用既能够去除指标之间的相关性和重复性,又考虑了各个指标的变动幅度对综合评价的影响。
第五部分是关于创业板上市公司成长性与投资价值关系的规范与实证分析。在前面章节分析的基础上,首先从理论上探讨了创业板上市公司成长性与投资价值的关系,并力求通过分析成长性与企业价值以及投资价值之间的关联关系,来深入分析成长性与投资价值之间的内在逻辑关系。其次本文利用数量分析的方法,为了验证成长性与投资价值的关系,通过数量分析成长性与未来净利润增长率的相关性、成长性与企业价值的相关性、成长性与股价变动的相关性等一系列的实证研究分析创业板上市公司成长性与投资价值的内在联系。
第六部分是本文的建议与策略部分,该部分主要是在明确创业板上市公司成长性与投资价值关系的基础上,对如何实现创业板上市公司良性成长、提升自身的价值创造能力、保护投资者利益以及规范创业板市场提出针对性的建议和策略。在建议与策略部分,本文重点分为三个方面来提出相关的建议,一是从优化企业成长角度、二是保护投资者利益角度、三是创业板市场规范角度。优化公司成长性、保护投资者利益以及规范创业板市场是有机统一的,构建三位一体的创业板市场监管体系,提升创业板市场的运行效率,鼓励创业板上市公司加大资金投入来积极的进行技术创新,将是提高创业板上市公司运行效率,实现稳定发展的重要推动力量。
经过研究本文得到了一些非常有价值的结论,对于推动和优化创业板市场的发展,促进创业板上市公司稳定成长具有一定的启示和借鉴意义。当然本文的研究也存在一定的不足和缺陷,在创业板上市公司成长性评价及投资价值相关理论的分析和研究还缺乏进一步的深度与宽度,如因为变量因素难以量化原因,部分实证研究中考虑的变量因素不够全面,这将是未来需要重点改进的地方。
As the Growth Enterprise Market established in2009, the growth of enterprise become a hot topic. The development practice of foreign growth enterprise market show that growth is the core problem of Growth Enterprise Market and listed company. The research aim of this paper want to found the factors which affect the growth of listed company and establish the accurate evaluation model. Then this paper analyzes the realtion between growth, enterprise value and investment value so as to find the mechanism of action between growth and investment value of enterprise. The outcome of analyise could help investor make objective evaluation to the growth of listed company so that to safeguard the interests of investors and promote the benign development of the capital market.
This paper contains two main lines in research design,(1) Evaluation of listed company growth in the GEM.(2) The transmission mechanism and correlation between listed company growth and investment value. For the evaluation of listed company growth in the GEM this paper was mainly based on literature theory and detaily analyzed the factors affecting the growth of listed company in the Growth Enterprise Market. During the course of the research, factors influencing listed company growth in the Growth Enterprise Market will be with the changing economic environment and exhibits different characteristics, grasping factors affecting the growth of listed company is a way of reasonable from the macro and micro angle.
At present the method of evaluation is so more, But the various evaluation methods in the sample selection, data collection and evaluation model are different, resulting in the evaluation of listed company growth in the GEM is contradictory, which seriously affects the scientific evaluation of growth of listed company in the Growth Enterprise Market and will also have a negative impact for the development of the GEM.
On the other hand:conduction mechanism of growth and investment value is the focus of this paper. Reseaching on conduction mechanism between listed company growth and investment value is a relatively new subject, it involves many factors, there exist many difficult to quantify variables between growth and investment value. For example, these factorsci include the performance of enterprise fundamental, the release of value creation ability, the impact of macroeconomic policy, the psychological factors of investors, the investor knowledge level, the judgment of entire capital market, personal preferences and so on. So the research on conduction mechanism between growth and investment value will faced with huge challenge. But from the development practice of the GEM market, listed company growth and investment value will have an important impact on the the interests of all parties of GEM, which have very important practical significance to the development of the gem. This paper basing on full use of existing data and theory analyzes inner logic and the relationship between enterprise growth and investment value.
This paper mainly contains six parts. The first part is the introduction which mainly illustrated the research background, purpose, significance, the technical route and described the overall framework. At the same time this paper made simple introduction for problems of research and innovation points.
The second part is the literature review, the research needs theoretical depth and sufficient width therefore it must be based on summarizing all kinds of literature theory, this paper collects a large number of relevant research literature, and after reading carefully, in order to find some advanced theory research methods related evaluation of listed company growth and investment value,which lay a good theoretical basis for following research. After the classification of literature, this paper found that the research on the growth evaluation of listed company in the GEM mainly in three aspects, unified research for growth and investment value is very rare.
The third part analyzed the growth evaluation theory of Listed company in the GEM and the current development of China's venture capital market, then this paper analysed and evaluated the growth of listed company, and then has made the induction, analysis and summary to the related theory of the growth of listing copmpany and investment value so as to lay a foundation for the following research.
The fourth part is the theoretical and empirical analysis on the evaluation method. This paper has established the comprehensive index system based on the analysis to influencing factors and feature of growth of listed company, through these factors influencing growth is quantified and integrated into specific growth score, thus the growth evaluation lays on the premise and foundation for subsequent content analysis. That how to deal with specific indicators reflects the growth way, the author puts forward the idea using the combination of factor analysis and entropy method to evaluate the growth of listed company, Chosing factor analysis method and entropy method combined with application because of the two methods have their own characteristics, the combination of these two methods can both remove application correlation between the indexes and the repeatability, at same time they consider the effect of variation of each index to comprehensive evaluation.
The fifth part baseing on the analysis in the previous section, firstly this paper discussed the relationship between the growth of listed company and investment value in theory and the relation between growth and enterprise value and the investment value so as to analyze the internal logical relationship between growth and investment value. Then this paper was based on quantitative analysis, in order to verify the relationship between growth and investment value, through the analysis of correlation between growth and future profit growth rate, correlation between growth, enterprise value and stock price an so on so that it coudle find internal links between growth of listed company and investment value.
The sixth part is the suggestions and strategies of this paper, this part put forward some good and pertinency suggestions for how to realize the benign development of the growth enterprise market, optimizatize the growth of enterprises and protect the interests of investors based on the clear relation between growth of listed company and investment value.
Through resrarch this paper obtains some valuable conclusions, which has some inspiration for promoting the development and optimization of the GEM and boosting the stable growth of listed company. Of course, this research also has certain insufficiency and defects, the relevant theory and empirical analysis of growth evaluation and investment value still lacks the depth and further width which will be the areas of improvement in future.
引文
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