我国出口退税政策的经济效应分析
摘要
作为我国长期实施的一项战略性贸易政策,出口退税政策一直是我国调控外向型经济的重要政策手段之一。出口退税政策自实施以来确实对我国的经济起到了非常大的促进作用,特别对外贸出口以及产业结构转变两方面的经济效应是最为突出的,但是近些年来,国家对出口退税政策调整非常频繁,这也不免对宏观经济及企业产生了一些负面影响,本文正是在这样的背景下,用实证的方法分析了出口退税政策的经济效应。
本文首先对我国出口退税政策的发展历程进行了回顾,将我国出口退税政策的调整过程划分为整体性调整和结构性调整两种类型,并相应分析了调整的经济背景,接着从理论上阐述了出口退税政策的经济效应,从而为后面的实证部分奠定了理论基础。本文研究出口退税政策的经济效应主要是从两方面着手:一方面研究出口退税政策对外贸出口的影响,因为促进出口是出口退税政策最直接的效应,考虑到我国的出口退税政策调整的滞后性,在对其影响出口的分析时纳入了出口退税变量的滞后项,选用我国1994-2008年的全国总量数据进行实证研究,从而更客观合理的得出了出口退税政策对出口有一定的促进效应,并且得到出口退税变量滞后一期项的影响比当期的影响更为显著,这也表明了出口退税的激励作用在我国具有明显的滞后性;另一方面研究了出口退税政策对产业结构优化的影响,运用我国2006年9月至2008年12月的主要行业出口额与出口退税率的月度数据建立面板数据模型,考察了出口退税对产业结构的影响作用,得出2007年7月国家进行的大范围的出口退税率的调整对我国的产业结构起到了一定的优化作用,但不同行业所得到的优化结果差异较大,并分析了原因。最后根据实证分析结果,对我国出口退税政策进行了评价,并相应的从政府层面和企业层面,提供了应对国家出口退税政策变化的一些可行性措施和建议。
As a long-term strategic trade policy, the export tax rebate policy has been one of the important policy instruments to control the foreign-oriented economy in China. Since the export tax rebate policy has been implemented, it actually played a very large role in China's economy, particularly in the effects of export and the industrial structure of foreign trade. But in recent years, the government has frequently adjusted the export tax rebate policy, which also bring the macroeconomic and business some adverse effects. This paper is against this background to study on the effects of the export tax rebate policy.
This paper begins from the development process of export tax rebate policy, and divided the process of adjustment into two types, one is the overall adjustment, the other is the structural adjustment. Then from the theory of the export tax rebate policy on the economic effects, which lay behind the empirical part of the theoretical basis. In this paper, the author will study on the economic effects of the export tax rebate policy from two sides. On the one hand, reseach on the export, because promoting the export is the most direct effect of the export tax rebate policy. Considering the delay of the policy effect, plus the lag to analyze the influnce. Based on the survey of the export data from 1994-2008, we can get a objective and rational conclusion that the export rebate policy has a strong effect on export, and the lag of it has more influnce on export than itself, which reasonably explains the export tax rebate with the lag in our country. On the other hand, studied the export tax rebate policy on the impact of industrial structure, then use the monthly data of the export and the export tax rebate rate in major sectors from September 2006 to December 2008 to estabalish a panel data model, which reached a conclusion that the government widely adjusting the rebate rates in July 2007 has made some optimized effect, but the different sectors has different optimized results. Based on the above analysis of the outcome, the author evalues the export tax rebate policy and provides a number of recommendations for the government and export enterprises.
本文首先对我国出口退税政策的发展历程进行了回顾,将我国出口退税政策的调整过程划分为整体性调整和结构性调整两种类型,并相应分析了调整的经济背景,接着从理论上阐述了出口退税政策的经济效应,从而为后面的实证部分奠定了理论基础。本文研究出口退税政策的经济效应主要是从两方面着手:一方面研究出口退税政策对外贸出口的影响,因为促进出口是出口退税政策最直接的效应,考虑到我国的出口退税政策调整的滞后性,在对其影响出口的分析时纳入了出口退税变量的滞后项,选用我国1994-2008年的全国总量数据进行实证研究,从而更客观合理的得出了出口退税政策对出口有一定的促进效应,并且得到出口退税变量滞后一期项的影响比当期的影响更为显著,这也表明了出口退税的激励作用在我国具有明显的滞后性;另一方面研究了出口退税政策对产业结构优化的影响,运用我国2006年9月至2008年12月的主要行业出口额与出口退税率的月度数据建立面板数据模型,考察了出口退税对产业结构的影响作用,得出2007年7月国家进行的大范围的出口退税率的调整对我国的产业结构起到了一定的优化作用,但不同行业所得到的优化结果差异较大,并分析了原因。最后根据实证分析结果,对我国出口退税政策进行了评价,并相应的从政府层面和企业层面,提供了应对国家出口退税政策变化的一些可行性措施和建议。
As a long-term strategic trade policy, the export tax rebate policy has been one of the important policy instruments to control the foreign-oriented economy in China. Since the export tax rebate policy has been implemented, it actually played a very large role in China's economy, particularly in the effects of export and the industrial structure of foreign trade. But in recent years, the government has frequently adjusted the export tax rebate policy, which also bring the macroeconomic and business some adverse effects. This paper is against this background to study on the effects of the export tax rebate policy.
This paper begins from the development process of export tax rebate policy, and divided the process of adjustment into two types, one is the overall adjustment, the other is the structural adjustment. Then from the theory of the export tax rebate policy on the economic effects, which lay behind the empirical part of the theoretical basis. In this paper, the author will study on the economic effects of the export tax rebate policy from two sides. On the one hand, reseach on the export, because promoting the export is the most direct effect of the export tax rebate policy. Considering the delay of the policy effect, plus the lag to analyze the influnce. Based on the survey of the export data from 1994-2008, we can get a objective and rational conclusion that the export rebate policy has a strong effect on export, and the lag of it has more influnce on export than itself, which reasonably explains the export tax rebate with the lag in our country. On the other hand, studied the export tax rebate policy on the impact of industrial structure, then use the monthly data of the export and the export tax rebate rate in major sectors from September 2006 to December 2008 to estabalish a panel data model, which reached a conclusion that the government widely adjusting the rebate rates in July 2007 has made some optimized effect, but the different sectors has different optimized results. Based on the above analysis of the outcome, the author evalues the export tax rebate policy and provides a number of recommendations for the government and export enterprises.
引文
1刘剑文.出口退税制度研究北京大学出版社2004:59~64.
2 Yilmaz K. Optimal. Export Taxes in a Multicountry. Framework Journal of Development Economics. 1999: 39~47
3 Valeria De Bonis. Regional lntegration and Commodity Tax Harmonization Policy Research working paper. The World Bank, 1997
4 Haufler A. Taxation in a Globa1 Economy Cambridge. university press 2001:57~63
5理查德·A·马斯格雷夫等.邓子基等译.财政理论与实践.第五版.中国财政经济出版社, 2003
6 Garry Clyde Hufoauer. Tax policy in a Global Economy. Institute for International Economy. Paper for the American Institute of Contemporary German Studies, 2000
7 Chen,C.H., Mai,C.C and Yu, H. C. The Effect of Export Tax Rebates on Export Performance: Theory and Evidence from China. China Economic Review, 2006, 17: 226-235
8 Zhiyuan Cui China's Export Tax Rebate Policy China: An International Journal 2003:339~349
9 Bandyopadhyay S, Majumdar B.Mul-tilateral Transfers Export Taxation and Symmetry Journal of Development Economics 2004:189~193
10 Cnossen,S. Design of the value added tax: lessons from experience.Tax Policy in developing countries, World Bank, Washington D.C, 1991
11 Chi-Chur Chao, W L Chou, Eden S H Yu .Export duty rebates and export performance: Theory and China’sexperience. Journal of Comparative Economies, 2001, (10):3~6
12 Elena Ianchovichina Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks Journal of Policy Modeling 2004:353~371
13 Chao, C. C., Yu, E. S.H and Y, W. China’s Import Duty Drawback and VAT Rebate Policies: A General Equilibrium Analysis. China Economic Review, 2006, 17: 432~448
14 Ann Saeeonfano.China may review VAT refunds Journal of Conuneree 2003:11~13
15 Shen Xiangman, &Maarten Roos, Wang Jing&Co. Law Firm. Export Tax Rebates:China’s APProach to Reforming the System.China Law and Practice. London, 2003,(11):11~12
16 Bernardette S.Sto.Domingo.High Court asked to reject Atlas’P8-M tax refund claim. Business World Manila:2004, (3) .1~1
17 Malini Hariharan.CAN:Asian Chemical News, Sutton:2003, (10):8
18 Mure dickie.Beijing to revamp export tax rebates Trade Reform:Financial Times, 2003, 10:8~10
19 Export tax rebates on textiles & arments raised to 16%, CHINA’S FOREIGN TRADE: 2009, (8):8~14
20 Ajay Jaiswal.Demystifying China:One of the major problems that beset the Chinese eeonomy is its fragile banking system which is Plagued by very high non-Performing loans.Businessline, 2004, (2): 11~14
21刘穷志.出口退税与中国的出口激励政策.世界经济.2005,(6):37~43
22阎坤,陈昌盛.出口退税、扩大出口与财政效应.管理世界.2003,(11):17~21
23屠庆忠.国家出口退税行为的理论分析.福建税务.2004,(11):29~33
24郑桂环,史德信,汪寿阳.出口退税政策对中国出口增长的影响分析.管理论坛,2004,(6):44~49
25隆国强.调整出口退税政策的效应分析.国际贸易.1998,(7):33~35
26陈红伟.出口退税政策的调整和人民币汇率变动的影响.国际贸易. 2000, (4): 42~45
27许南.出口退税政策调整对进出口贸易和汇率影响的实证分析.长沙大学学报.2005,(1):18~24
28刘书兰.对我国出口退税制度演变过程的探究及思考.湖北社会科学. 2006,(8):75
29丁敏.对新一轮出口退税机制改革的探讨及对策分析.税务与经济. 2004,(4): 41~46
30赵杰.出口退税的作用分析与政策选择.生产力研究.2006,(4)
31赵陵,宋少华,宋泓明.中国出口导向型经济增长的经验分析.世界经济. 2001, (8):14~20
32张伦俊,祝遵宏.我国税收对出口贸易的影响分析-兼论出口退税政策调整的效应.国际贸易问题. 2005,(4):21~25
33陈建,王世辅,刘英.我国出口退税与货币贬值的外贸影响比较.改革与战略.2004,(2):41~47
34唐娟,杜玉兰.从出口退税与人民币升值的关系看我国出口退税政策.市场周刊.2005,(7):35~41
35汤贡亮,李成威.出口退税政策的经济效应:理论分析和实证研究.税务研究.2003,(12):36~42
36裴长洪.中国外贸增长分析与相关政策讨论.国际经济评论.2005,(1):17~25
37杜莹芬.中国出口退税制度改革及其影响.上海行政学院学报.2004,(2):24~29
38孙金鹏.出口退税政策的多目标冲突与重新定位.对外经贸实务. 2004,(2): 36~40
39郭友群.降低出口退税率的效应分析.财贸经济, 2004,(7):51~55
40张军.出口退税政策调整的背景影响及展望.税务与经济. 2004,(4):45~49
41沈明其.我国出口退税政策存在的问题及对策.对外经贸实务. 2006,(1):22~25
42张阳.我国出口退税政策调整的影响效应分析.税务与经济, 2006,(1):35~41
43钟芸香.出口退税率调整对我国外贸行业的影响及对策分析.湖南经济管理干部学院学报. 2004,(2):42~47
44严才明.出口退税率调整对增值税收入的影响.税务研究2005,(7):49~51
45林发彬.出口退税政策对我国外贸增长方式转变的影响效应及建议.亚太经济. 2006,(5)47~49
46岳树民、林力昊.出口退税政策的有效性及调整空间.涉外税务. 2008,(12):28~32
47裴长洪等.出口退税与中国对外贸易.社会科学文献出版社. 2008
48万莹.中国出口退税政策绩效的实证分析.经济评论. 2007,(4):62~67
49曾康华.出口退税的经济分析.中央财经大学学报. 2007,(12):23~27
50安体富、王海勇等.当前中国税制改革研究.中国税务出版社. 2006
51闻媛.关于我国出口退税政策功能定位的分析与思考.财经论丛. 2008,(5):34~39
52杨雄飞,朱燕.浅谈出口退税政策与我国产业结构调整.商业时代. 2009,(11):45
2 Yilmaz K. Optimal. Export Taxes in a Multicountry. Framework Journal of Development Economics. 1999: 39~47
3 Valeria De Bonis. Regional lntegration and Commodity Tax Harmonization Policy Research working paper. The World Bank, 1997
4 Haufler A. Taxation in a Globa1 Economy Cambridge. university press 2001:57~63
5理查德·A·马斯格雷夫等.邓子基等译.财政理论与实践.第五版.中国财政经济出版社, 2003
6 Garry Clyde Hufoauer. Tax policy in a Global Economy. Institute for International Economy. Paper for the American Institute of Contemporary German Studies, 2000
7 Chen,C.H., Mai,C.C and Yu, H. C. The Effect of Export Tax Rebates on Export Performance: Theory and Evidence from China. China Economic Review, 2006, 17: 226-235
8 Zhiyuan Cui China's Export Tax Rebate Policy China: An International Journal 2003:339~349
9 Bandyopadhyay S, Majumdar B.Mul-tilateral Transfers Export Taxation and Symmetry Journal of Development Economics 2004:189~193
10 Cnossen,S. Design of the value added tax: lessons from experience.Tax Policy in developing countries, World Bank, Washington D.C, 1991
11 Chi-Chur Chao, W L Chou, Eden S H Yu .Export duty rebates and export performance: Theory and China’sexperience. Journal of Comparative Economies, 2001, (10):3~6
12 Elena Ianchovichina Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks Journal of Policy Modeling 2004:353~371
13 Chao, C. C., Yu, E. S.H and Y, W. China’s Import Duty Drawback and VAT Rebate Policies: A General Equilibrium Analysis. China Economic Review, 2006, 17: 432~448
14 Ann Saeeonfano.China may review VAT refunds Journal of Conuneree 2003:11~13
15 Shen Xiangman, &Maarten Roos, Wang Jing&Co. Law Firm. Export Tax Rebates:China’s APProach to Reforming the System.China Law and Practice. London, 2003,(11):11~12
16 Bernardette S.Sto.Domingo.High Court asked to reject Atlas’P8-M tax refund claim. Business World Manila:2004, (3) .1~1
17 Malini Hariharan.CAN:Asian Chemical News, Sutton:2003, (10):8
18 Mure dickie.Beijing to revamp export tax rebates Trade Reform:Financial Times, 2003, 10:8~10
19 Export tax rebates on textiles & arments raised to 16%, CHINA’S FOREIGN TRADE: 2009, (8):8~14
20 Ajay Jaiswal.Demystifying China:One of the major problems that beset the Chinese eeonomy is its fragile banking system which is Plagued by very high non-Performing loans.Businessline, 2004, (2): 11~14
21刘穷志.出口退税与中国的出口激励政策.世界经济.2005,(6):37~43
22阎坤,陈昌盛.出口退税、扩大出口与财政效应.管理世界.2003,(11):17~21
23屠庆忠.国家出口退税行为的理论分析.福建税务.2004,(11):29~33
24郑桂环,史德信,汪寿阳.出口退税政策对中国出口增长的影响分析.管理论坛,2004,(6):44~49
25隆国强.调整出口退税政策的效应分析.国际贸易.1998,(7):33~35
26陈红伟.出口退税政策的调整和人民币汇率变动的影响.国际贸易. 2000, (4): 42~45
27许南.出口退税政策调整对进出口贸易和汇率影响的实证分析.长沙大学学报.2005,(1):18~24
28刘书兰.对我国出口退税制度演变过程的探究及思考.湖北社会科学. 2006,(8):75
29丁敏.对新一轮出口退税机制改革的探讨及对策分析.税务与经济. 2004,(4): 41~46
30赵杰.出口退税的作用分析与政策选择.生产力研究.2006,(4)
31赵陵,宋少华,宋泓明.中国出口导向型经济增长的经验分析.世界经济. 2001, (8):14~20
32张伦俊,祝遵宏.我国税收对出口贸易的影响分析-兼论出口退税政策调整的效应.国际贸易问题. 2005,(4):21~25
33陈建,王世辅,刘英.我国出口退税与货币贬值的外贸影响比较.改革与战略.2004,(2):41~47
34唐娟,杜玉兰.从出口退税与人民币升值的关系看我国出口退税政策.市场周刊.2005,(7):35~41
35汤贡亮,李成威.出口退税政策的经济效应:理论分析和实证研究.税务研究.2003,(12):36~42
36裴长洪.中国外贸增长分析与相关政策讨论.国际经济评论.2005,(1):17~25
37杜莹芬.中国出口退税制度改革及其影响.上海行政学院学报.2004,(2):24~29
38孙金鹏.出口退税政策的多目标冲突与重新定位.对外经贸实务. 2004,(2): 36~40
39郭友群.降低出口退税率的效应分析.财贸经济, 2004,(7):51~55
40张军.出口退税政策调整的背景影响及展望.税务与经济. 2004,(4):45~49
41沈明其.我国出口退税政策存在的问题及对策.对外经贸实务. 2006,(1):22~25
42张阳.我国出口退税政策调整的影响效应分析.税务与经济, 2006,(1):35~41
43钟芸香.出口退税率调整对我国外贸行业的影响及对策分析.湖南经济管理干部学院学报. 2004,(2):42~47
44严才明.出口退税率调整对增值税收入的影响.税务研究2005,(7):49~51
45林发彬.出口退税政策对我国外贸增长方式转变的影响效应及建议.亚太经济. 2006,(5)47~49
46岳树民、林力昊.出口退税政策的有效性及调整空间.涉外税务. 2008,(12):28~32
47裴长洪等.出口退税与中国对外贸易.社会科学文献出版社. 2008
48万莹.中国出口退税政策绩效的实证分析.经济评论. 2007,(4):62~67
49曾康华.出口退税的经济分析.中央财经大学学报. 2007,(12):23~27
50安体富、王海勇等.当前中国税制改革研究.中国税务出版社. 2006
51闻媛.关于我国出口退税政策功能定位的分析与思考.财经论丛. 2008,(5):34~39
52杨雄飞,朱燕.浅谈出口退税政策与我国产业结构调整.商业时代. 2009,(11):45