中国玉米在主要进口国的市场份额及其变动分析
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摘要
从全球的视角来看,玉米的流通和贸易逐渐成为人们关注的热点之一,而我国玉米的贸易不论是进口还是出口都表现出较强的“大国”效应,本文主要对中国玉米流通和贸易及其玉米在主要出口目的国市场份额进行分析,首先总结了玉米国内区域流通格局的演变,通过对玉米供求的分析,探讨玉米流向、流通途径和方式,构建了简单的玉米需求指标对我国稳定的玉米调出省和调入省进行分析,并对未来我国玉米的流通格局进行讨论,认为受WTO规则的制约和玉米经营主体自主性以及利润最人化的驱使,一体化市场形成的步伐加速,“南进北出”的局面完全形成。其次,从中国玉米的贸易波动情况、国内玉米进出口地区结构以及出口目标市场几个方面,阐述了中国玉米的贸易格局和国际地位,同时说明中国玉米巨大的产量、储备量和贸易量决定在了其在国际经济中的重要地位。再次,运用市场份额分析法,定量描述玉米最近几年期间竞争效应、市场规模效应、分配效应在此期间所起的作用,从而说明了竞争效应、分配效应对玉米的出口量的变化有重要的作用,尤其竞争效应作用最大,在国家产业政策的调整下,提高玉米的国际竞争力,仍然是维护我国玉米贸易地位的主要途径。然后,运用贸易的“第三方影响模型”,该模型考虑竞争对手美国的情况下,研究本国玉米在出口目的国的市场份额及其变化,将汇率变量引入模型,并且检验汇率变动对中国玉米贸易量的影响,实证分析了主要进出口国汇率变动对中国玉米市场份额的影响程度。模型研究结果表明,美国的玉米出口价格对中国在主要玉米进口国家的市场份额有重要的影响作用,美国汇率的变动对中国玉米的出口市场份额影响较大。因此,中国的玉米进出口市场受到美元汇率变化的影响,一旦汇率做出调整,而平衡点应取决于人民币升值的幅度大小和国内进出口政策的调整取向。
基于上面几个方面的分析,同时分析了中国玉米市场几个重要的相关问题,最后得山各章相应的结论和对策建议。
This paper mainly analyzes domestic and international corn trade patterns, particularly market share of china in corn importing countries. Firstly, summarizing the evolution of domestic corn trade pattern, then discussing the domestic corn trade flows and channels, and develops a simple corn demand index to analyze corn flow trend. As china entering WTO and it's grain market integrated into international market,"Nan Liang Bei Yun" and "Nan Jin Bei Chu" has becoming the main pattern. Secondly, the paper discusses Chinese corn international trade partem and the role of Chinese corn in world corn economy, according to the Chinese corn production, stock and trade volumes.Besides, a framework market share analysis is applied to analyzes Chinese corn exports, by calculating"distribution"effect,"competitive"effect and "size of markef'effect in the given time periods. The results show that"competitive" effect is more important for Chinese corn export than other effects.Finally, in order to analyze the impact of competition among exporting counties, a third country effect model is developed. Considering the country effect to minimize a specification bias problem that arise from the fact the unilateral trade flows depend not only on the costs of purchasing grain from an exporting country but also on the costs of purchasing grain from competitions of the exporting country. In the model ,exchange rate and volatities in exchange rates as main variables, the result indicates that U.S exchange rate against importing countries is significant for corn export market shares of china. Based on above analysis and discussion on other corn market problems, some conclusions and suggestions are provided.
基于上面几个方面的分析,同时分析了中国玉米市场几个重要的相关问题,最后得山各章相应的结论和对策建议。
This paper mainly analyzes domestic and international corn trade patterns, particularly market share of china in corn importing countries. Firstly, summarizing the evolution of domestic corn trade pattern, then discussing the domestic corn trade flows and channels, and develops a simple corn demand index to analyze corn flow trend. As china entering WTO and it's grain market integrated into international market,"Nan Liang Bei Yun" and "Nan Jin Bei Chu" has becoming the main pattern. Secondly, the paper discusses Chinese corn international trade partem and the role of Chinese corn in world corn economy, according to the Chinese corn production, stock and trade volumes.Besides, a framework market share analysis is applied to analyzes Chinese corn exports, by calculating"distribution"effect,"competitive"effect and "size of markef'effect in the given time periods. The results show that"competitive" effect is more important for Chinese corn export than other effects.Finally, in order to analyze the impact of competition among exporting counties, a third country effect model is developed. Considering the country effect to minimize a specification bias problem that arise from the fact the unilateral trade flows depend not only on the costs of purchasing grain from an exporting country but also on the costs of purchasing grain from competitions of the exporting country. In the model ,exchange rate and volatities in exchange rates as main variables, the result indicates that U.S exchange rate against importing countries is significant for corn export market shares of china. Based on above analysis and discussion on other corn market problems, some conclusions and suggestions are provided.
引文
[1] Albert Park、Hehui Jin、Scotte Rozelle and Jikun Huang, "Market Emergence and Transition: Arbitrage, transaction Cost and Autarky in China's Rice and Corn Market", 2001.12.
[2] Hong Yang, "Trend in China's Regional Grain Production and Their Implications", 50.1998.
[3] HyunJ. Jin, Guedae Cho, Won W. Koo, "Third Country Effects on U. S. Wheat Export Performance in Asian Countries" Agribusiness Applied Economics Report No.503,2003.1
[4] Miao Xu and David Qrden, "Exchange Rate Effects on Canadian/U.S. Agricultural Price", 2002.6.
[5] Scotte Rozelle and Colin Carter, "A Report to the National Research Initiative Committee", 2001.12.
[6] Samarendu Mohanty, I. W. F. Peterson and DamellB. Smith, "Price Integration in MERCOSUR Counties A Fractional Cointegration Analysis", 1998.
[7] Songqin Jin、Jikun Huang、Ruifa Hu、Scott Rozelle, "Maize Technology in China ", (2001).
[8] Tian, W. M. and J. Chudleigh (1998), "Chinas Feedgrain Market: Development and Prospect", AARC Working Paper Series, No. 06, the University of Sydney, 1998.
[9] Won W. Koo、JianqiangLou、Roger G. Johnson, "Increases in Demand for Food in China and Implications for World Agricultural Trade ", 1996.5.
[10] Tian, W. M. and J. Chudleigh, 1998, "China's Feedgrain Market Development and Prospect", AARC Working Paper Series (No.06), the University of Sydney.
[11] Tian, W. M.(1999), "Impacts of Trade Liberalisation on China's Feedgrain Market.", Paper presented at the symposium China's Agricultural Trade and Policy: Issues, Analysis and Global Consequences, San Francisco, California, June 25-26,, 1999.
[12] Wang, Z. H, S. H. Huang, etc. (2000), "The Basic Situation of Regional Grain Flows in China." Working paper of the research project of "Chinese Grain Market Policy with Special Emphasis on the Domestic Grain Trade", Center for International Economic Studies, Adelaide University, Adelaide,, 2000.
[13] Wu L. P. and J. F. Zhu (2002), "Study on trade of Chinese Feed grain", paper presented at the conference "the Pattern of Feed Grain Supply and Demand at Eastern Asian Area-Marketing and trade held atToyamaUniversity, Toyama, Japan, 2002.10.
[14] Xin, X. (2001), "Changing Patterns of Feedgrain Production and Marketing in China.", Agribusiness Perspectives Paper 47,, Sydney University.
[15] 15. L. R. Rigaux, Market Share Analysis Apply to Canadian Wheat Exports, Canadian Journal of Agriculture Economics 1991: 22-34.
[16] 程国强,《善用比较优势-中国农产品比较优势与国际竞争力分析》,1999.
[17] 程国强,《构建风险转移防范机制——重视国际玉米市场风险防范与管理》,《国际贸易》,2004.12
[18] 陈永福,《中国事物供求与预测》,中国农业出版社,2004.8.
[2] Hong Yang, "Trend in China's Regional Grain Production and Their Implications", 50.1998.
[3] HyunJ. Jin, Guedae Cho, Won W. Koo, "Third Country Effects on U. S. Wheat Export Performance in Asian Countries" Agribusiness Applied Economics Report No.503,2003.1
[4] Miao Xu and David Qrden, "Exchange Rate Effects on Canadian/U.S. Agricultural Price", 2002.6.
[5] Scotte Rozelle and Colin Carter, "A Report to the National Research Initiative Committee", 2001.12.
[6] Samarendu Mohanty, I. W. F. Peterson and DamellB. Smith, "Price Integration in MERCOSUR Counties A Fractional Cointegration Analysis", 1998.
[7] Songqin Jin、Jikun Huang、Ruifa Hu、Scott Rozelle, "Maize Technology in China ", (2001).
[8] Tian, W. M. and J. Chudleigh (1998), "Chinas Feedgrain Market: Development and Prospect", AARC Working Paper Series, No. 06, the University of Sydney, 1998.
[9] Won W. Koo、JianqiangLou、Roger G. Johnson, "Increases in Demand for Food in China and Implications for World Agricultural Trade ", 1996.5.
[10] Tian, W. M. and J. Chudleigh, 1998, "China's Feedgrain Market Development and Prospect", AARC Working Paper Series (No.06), the University of Sydney.
[11] Tian, W. M.(1999), "Impacts of Trade Liberalisation on China's Feedgrain Market.", Paper presented at the symposium China's Agricultural Trade and Policy: Issues, Analysis and Global Consequences, San Francisco, California, June 25-26,, 1999.
[12] Wang, Z. H, S. H. Huang, etc. (2000), "The Basic Situation of Regional Grain Flows in China." Working paper of the research project of "Chinese Grain Market Policy with Special Emphasis on the Domestic Grain Trade", Center for International Economic Studies, Adelaide University, Adelaide,, 2000.
[13] Wu L. P. and J. F. Zhu (2002), "Study on trade of Chinese Feed grain", paper presented at the conference "the Pattern of Feed Grain Supply and Demand at Eastern Asian Area-Marketing and trade held atToyamaUniversity, Toyama, Japan, 2002.10.
[14] Xin, X. (2001), "Changing Patterns of Feedgrain Production and Marketing in China.", Agribusiness Perspectives Paper 47,, Sydney University.
[15] 15. L. R. Rigaux, Market Share Analysis Apply to Canadian Wheat Exports, Canadian Journal of Agriculture Economics 1991: 22-34.
[16] 程国强,《善用比较优势-中国农产品比较优势与国际竞争力分析》,1999.
[17] 程国强,《构建风险转移防范机制——重视国际玉米市场风险防范与管理》,《国际贸易》,2004.12
[18] 陈永福,《中国事物供求与预测》,中国农业出版社,2004.8.