基于归一法理论的房地产估价市场比较法研究
|
摘要
房地产估价作为房地产开发经营过程中一项必不可少的环节,己经越来越受到人们的重视。随着社会经济的不断发展,房地产估价的应用领域将越来越广。市场比较法是参照于估价时点近期类似房地产的实际成交价格来评定待估房地产价格的一种估价方法,是目前房地产估价体系中运用范围最广而且最能被接受的一种估价方法。鉴于我国房地产市场日渐兴旺,房地产竞争日渐公平,市场比较法被广泛采用对于市场比较法展开研究有着非常重要的意义。
然而我国房地产估价起步晚,对于市场比较法的研究还处于探索阶段,因此,如何科学地运用市场比较法进行房地产估价己经成为一种趋势,是我国房地产界迫切需要解决的问题。本文在房地产估价基本理论的基础上,深入分析了市场比较法在房地产估价运用过程中存在的难点问题：可比实例的因素修正的主观性,不完备性,待估房地产价格确定的随意性。
为了解决市场比较法运用过程中房地产因素修正主观性大带来的弊端,在现有房地产估价理论的基础上,本文结合归一法理论的最新研究成果,确立了房地产估价的归一法估价模型,对模型的变量指标体系进行了详细的分析,对各个指标进行了量化研究。最后,结合案例说明了利用本模型进行房地产估价的详细过程,表明了利用本模型能够较好的减少因为估价人员主观性造成的误差,得到更为合理的估价结果,从而对市场比较法进行了有效的改进。
The real estate appraisal as an necessary work of the real estate development and management process has already been attached importance by people. With the continuous development of the society and economy, the applied field of real estate will be wider and wider. Market comparison approach is a means of evaluating the price of real estate with reference to the real cost price of current real estate with similar qualifications. At present, the approach is widely used and can be accepted most in the appraisal system. Consider about the booming local markets and gradually fair play, it is significant to study and improve the market comparison approach.
In our country, the step of the study on real estate appraisal is relatively later. We are yet at the stage of exploring to the research of the market comparison approach, so it is now a trend to use market comparison approach to evaluate real estate, and how to use it scientifically is a problem to be solved urgently in real estate circle of our country. Based on the basic principle of the real estate, this paper analyzed the problems of the market comparison approach in the real estate evaluation practices. The major problems include incompletion of factors-revising and the most important problem in practices is to eliminate the errors caused by estimators'subjectivity.
In order to solve the drawback the subjectivity bring to us, based on the basic principle of the real estate, we introduced the latest one-price Assumption theory into the market comparison approach, built up the one-price assumption appraisal model, analyzed the factors systematically and proposed quantized methods. At last, combined with real example analysis, this thesis take advantage of the model set up before, offer the appraisal process in detail, illustrates the model can eliminate the errors caused by estimators'subjectivity, and can get a more reasonable price of the real estate to be evaluated. The market comparison approach has been improved effectively.
然而我国房地产估价起步晚,对于市场比较法的研究还处于探索阶段,因此,如何科学地运用市场比较法进行房地产估价己经成为一种趋势,是我国房地产界迫切需要解决的问题。本文在房地产估价基本理论的基础上,深入分析了市场比较法在房地产估价运用过程中存在的难点问题：可比实例的因素修正的主观性,不完备性,待估房地产价格确定的随意性。
为了解决市场比较法运用过程中房地产因素修正主观性大带来的弊端,在现有房地产估价理论的基础上,本文结合归一法理论的最新研究成果,确立了房地产估价的归一法估价模型,对模型的变量指标体系进行了详细的分析,对各个指标进行了量化研究。最后,结合案例说明了利用本模型进行房地产估价的详细过程,表明了利用本模型能够较好的减少因为估价人员主观性造成的误差,得到更为合理的估价结果,从而对市场比较法进行了有效的改进。
The real estate appraisal as an necessary work of the real estate development and management process has already been attached importance by people. With the continuous development of the society and economy, the applied field of real estate will be wider and wider. Market comparison approach is a means of evaluating the price of real estate with reference to the real cost price of current real estate with similar qualifications. At present, the approach is widely used and can be accepted most in the appraisal system. Consider about the booming local markets and gradually fair play, it is significant to study and improve the market comparison approach.
In our country, the step of the study on real estate appraisal is relatively later. We are yet at the stage of exploring to the research of the market comparison approach, so it is now a trend to use market comparison approach to evaluate real estate, and how to use it scientifically is a problem to be solved urgently in real estate circle of our country. Based on the basic principle of the real estate, this paper analyzed the problems of the market comparison approach in the real estate evaluation practices. The major problems include incompletion of factors-revising and the most important problem in practices is to eliminate the errors caused by estimators'subjectivity.
In order to solve the drawback the subjectivity bring to us, based on the basic principle of the real estate, we introduced the latest one-price Assumption theory into the market comparison approach, built up the one-price assumption appraisal model, analyzed the factors systematically and proposed quantized methods. At last, combined with real example analysis, this thesis take advantage of the model set up before, offer the appraisal process in detail, illustrates the model can eliminate the errors caused by estimators'subjectivity, and can get a more reasonable price of the real estate to be evaluated. The market comparison approach has been improved effectively.
引文
1.叶剑平.房地产估价[M],北京：中国人民大学出版社,2002.
2.吴庆玲.房地产价格评估[M],北京：中国建材工业出版社,2004.
3.柴强.房地产估价理论与方法[M],中国物价出版社，2001.
4. Appraisal Institute, Appraising Residential Properties, 2ded, Chicago,1992.
5.田益祥,谭地军,赵兵.影响中国房地产价格的因素及其程度分析[J],商场现代化,2005,27(11)：51.
6.肖建月.需求主导因素对房地产价格的影响及政策启示[J],市场研究,2005,3(8)：2-3.
7.鲍丽香.房地产价格影响因素研究评述[J],边疆经济与文化,2005,5(9)：32-34.
8.贺巍,李小朋.影响建筑物心理价位的因素[J],建筑知识,2004,(2)：50-52.
9.陈薇薇.商品房价格构成分析[J],上海房地产,2005,(11)：54-56.
10.王德,黄万枢.Hedonic住宅价格法及其应用[J],城市规划,2005,(3)：62-71.
11.温海珍,贾生华.市场细分与城市住宅特征价格分析[J],浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2006,(2)：155-161.
12. Walden, Michael. Magnet schools and the differential impact of school quality on residential property values [J], Journal of Real Estate Research,1990,5(2):221-230.
13. Kathy J Hayes, Lori L Taylor. Neighborhood school characteristics:what signals quality to home buyers [J], Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review,1996, (3):2-9.
14. Donald R Haurin, David M Brasington. The impact of school quality of real house prices: inter jurisdictional effects [J], Journal of Housing Economics,1996,12(4):351-368.
15. Ian J Bateman, Brett Day, Iain R Lake. The effect of road traffic on residential property values:a literature review and Hedonic pricing study [M], Scottish Executive Transport Research Series, The Stationary Office, Edinburgh,2001.
16. Thomas 0 Jackson. The effect of environmental contamination of real estate:a literature review [J], Journal of Real Estate Literature,2001,9(2):93-116.
17. Earl D Benson. Julia L Hansen. Canadian/U.S. exchange rates and nonresident investors: Their influence on residential property values [J], Journal of Real Estate Research,1999, 18(3):433-461.
18. Hite, Diane. Information and bargaining in markets for environmental quality[J], Land Economics,1998,74(3):303-316.
19. Stephen Malpezzi. Microeconomic estimates of housing depreciating [J], Land Economics, 1987,63(4):372-385.
20.张宏铭.住宅经济学[M],上海：上海财经大学出版社,1998.
21.王克忠等主编.房地产估价理论与方法[M],北京：高等教育出版社,1998.
22.郑思齐,刘洪玉.市场比较法中因素调整过程中的改进——归一法与Hedonic模型法[J],中国房地产估价师,2003,6：40-43.
23.贾生华,温海珍.房地产特征价格模型的理论发展及其应用[J],外国经济与管理,2004,26(5)：42-44.
24.丁战,李晓燕.基于Hedonic模型的沈阳市住房价格属性分析[J],新西部,2007,(4)：8.
25.范克危.房地产投资市场聚类分析研究[J],苏州城建环保学院学报,1999,12(4)：29.
26.中华人民共和国建设部.房地产估价规范GB/T50291-1999,北京：中国建筑工业出版社,1999.
27.王秀丽,骆汉宾.市场比较法可比案例的选择研究[J],华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2003,20(4)：89-91.
28. Crookham. Sales comparison approach revisited [J], The Appraisal Journal, 1995.18(4),181-185.
29. H R.Isakson. The linear algebra of the sales comparison approach [J], Journal of Real Estate Research,2002,24(2):117-128.
30. Allen C.Goodman. Housing market segmentation [J], Journal of Housing Economics, 1998,7:121-143.
31. Nacy E Wallance Alleance. Hedonic-Based Price Indexes for Housing:Theory, Estimation.and Index Construction [J], Economic Review,1996,3:34-48.
32.张协奎,陈伟清.中外房地产估价发展综述[J],河南城建高等专科学校学报,2000,9(2).52-58.
33.高新波.模糊聚类分析及其应用[M],西安：西安电子科技大学出版社,2004.
34.蒋泽军.模糊数学教程[M],北京：国防工业出版社,2003,120-128.
35.王旭东.聚类分析在市场比较法中的应用研究[D],武汉：武汉理工大学,2006.
36.杜葵,陈玉梅.市场比较法运用的难点及完善措施[J],中国房地产,1997,(5),30-34.
37. Bronico J S, D M Moliver. Appraisal reliability and the sales comparison approach [J], The Appraisal Journal,1997, (3):31-36.
38.Colwell P F, R E Canady, C WU. The analytical foundations of adjustment grid methods [J], Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Associan,1983, 11(1):11-29.
39. Diaz J Ⅲ. The process of selecting comparable sales [J], The Appraisal Journal,1990, (5): 33-40.
40. Green, R.K. Optimal comparable weighting and selecting:A comment [J], Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Associations,1994,14(2):74-86.
41. Thomas P, Williams Mai Base adjusting in the sales comparable approach [J], The Appraisal Journal,2004, (1):155-162.
42. Sherif Roubi, Asheraf Ghazaly. Pricing inter-neighborhood variation [J], Property Management,2007,25 (1):68-80.
43. Norman G Miller, Makosyan. The academic roots and evolution of real estate appraisal [J], The Appraisal Journal,2003,71(2):172-184.
44. David P P Loerenz, Stefan Truck. Exploring the relationship between the sustainability of construction and market value [J], Property Management,2007,25 (2):119-149.
45. Mark T, Spence James, A Thorson. The effect of expertise on the quality of appraisal services [J], Journal of Real Estate Research,1998,15 (2):205-216.
46.卢纹岱.SPSS for Windows统计分析[M],北京：电子工业出版社,2000.
47.薛薇.SPSS统计分析方法及应用[M],北京：电子工业出版社,2004.
48.侯紫罗.Excel在企业管理中的应用[M],北京：中国青年出版社,2002
49.张战军.用Excel求解线性方程组[J],郑州轻工业学院学报(自然科学版),2006,21(3)：71-73.
50.王会来.房地产估价中的比较法误差研究[J],科技资讯,2005,(24)：146.
2.吴庆玲.房地产价格评估[M],北京：中国建材工业出版社,2004.
3.柴强.房地产估价理论与方法[M],中国物价出版社，2001.
4. Appraisal Institute, Appraising Residential Properties, 2ded, Chicago,1992.
5.田益祥,谭地军,赵兵.影响中国房地产价格的因素及其程度分析[J],商场现代化,2005,27(11)：51.
6.肖建月.需求主导因素对房地产价格的影响及政策启示[J],市场研究,2005,3(8)：2-3.
7.鲍丽香.房地产价格影响因素研究评述[J],边疆经济与文化,2005,5(9)：32-34.
8.贺巍,李小朋.影响建筑物心理价位的因素[J],建筑知识,2004,(2)：50-52.
9.陈薇薇.商品房价格构成分析[J],上海房地产,2005,(11)：54-56.
10.王德,黄万枢.Hedonic住宅价格法及其应用[J],城市规划,2005,(3)：62-71.
11.温海珍,贾生华.市场细分与城市住宅特征价格分析[J],浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2006,(2)：155-161.
12. Walden, Michael. Magnet schools and the differential impact of school quality on residential property values [J], Journal of Real Estate Research,1990,5(2):221-230.
13. Kathy J Hayes, Lori L Taylor. Neighborhood school characteristics:what signals quality to home buyers [J], Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review,1996, (3):2-9.
14. Donald R Haurin, David M Brasington. The impact of school quality of real house prices: inter jurisdictional effects [J], Journal of Housing Economics,1996,12(4):351-368.
15. Ian J Bateman, Brett Day, Iain R Lake. The effect of road traffic on residential property values:a literature review and Hedonic pricing study [M], Scottish Executive Transport Research Series, The Stationary Office, Edinburgh,2001.
16. Thomas 0 Jackson. The effect of environmental contamination of real estate:a literature review [J], Journal of Real Estate Literature,2001,9(2):93-116.
17. Earl D Benson. Julia L Hansen. Canadian/U.S. exchange rates and nonresident investors: Their influence on residential property values [J], Journal of Real Estate Research,1999, 18(3):433-461.
18. Hite, Diane. Information and bargaining in markets for environmental quality[J], Land Economics,1998,74(3):303-316.
19. Stephen Malpezzi. Microeconomic estimates of housing depreciating [J], Land Economics, 1987,63(4):372-385.
20.张宏铭.住宅经济学[M],上海：上海财经大学出版社,1998.
21.王克忠等主编.房地产估价理论与方法[M],北京：高等教育出版社,1998.
22.郑思齐,刘洪玉.市场比较法中因素调整过程中的改进——归一法与Hedonic模型法[J],中国房地产估价师,2003,6：40-43.
23.贾生华,温海珍.房地产特征价格模型的理论发展及其应用[J],外国经济与管理,2004,26(5)：42-44.
24.丁战,李晓燕.基于Hedonic模型的沈阳市住房价格属性分析[J],新西部,2007,(4)：8.
25.范克危.房地产投资市场聚类分析研究[J],苏州城建环保学院学报,1999,12(4)：29.
26.中华人民共和国建设部.房地产估价规范GB/T50291-1999,北京：中国建筑工业出版社,1999.
27.王秀丽,骆汉宾.市场比较法可比案例的选择研究[J],华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2003,20(4)：89-91.
28. Crookham. Sales comparison approach revisited [J], The Appraisal Journal, 1995.18(4),181-185.
29. H R.Isakson. The linear algebra of the sales comparison approach [J], Journal of Real Estate Research,2002,24(2):117-128.
30. Allen C.Goodman. Housing market segmentation [J], Journal of Housing Economics, 1998,7:121-143.
31. Nacy E Wallance Alleance. Hedonic-Based Price Indexes for Housing:Theory, Estimation.and Index Construction [J], Economic Review,1996,3:34-48.
32.张协奎,陈伟清.中外房地产估价发展综述[J],河南城建高等专科学校学报,2000,9(2).52-58.
33.高新波.模糊聚类分析及其应用[M],西安：西安电子科技大学出版社,2004.
34.蒋泽军.模糊数学教程[M],北京：国防工业出版社,2003,120-128.
35.王旭东.聚类分析在市场比较法中的应用研究[D],武汉：武汉理工大学,2006.
36.杜葵,陈玉梅.市场比较法运用的难点及完善措施[J],中国房地产,1997,(5),30-34.
37. Bronico J S, D M Moliver. Appraisal reliability and the sales comparison approach [J], The Appraisal Journal,1997, (3):31-36.
38.Colwell P F, R E Canady, C WU. The analytical foundations of adjustment grid methods [J], Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Associan,1983, 11(1):11-29.
39. Diaz J Ⅲ. The process of selecting comparable sales [J], The Appraisal Journal,1990, (5): 33-40.
40. Green, R.K. Optimal comparable weighting and selecting:A comment [J], Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Associations,1994,14(2):74-86.
41. Thomas P, Williams Mai Base adjusting in the sales comparable approach [J], The Appraisal Journal,2004, (1):155-162.
42. Sherif Roubi, Asheraf Ghazaly. Pricing inter-neighborhood variation [J], Property Management,2007,25 (1):68-80.
43. Norman G Miller, Makosyan. The academic roots and evolution of real estate appraisal [J], The Appraisal Journal,2003,71(2):172-184.
44. David P P Loerenz, Stefan Truck. Exploring the relationship between the sustainability of construction and market value [J], Property Management,2007,25 (2):119-149.
45. Mark T, Spence James, A Thorson. The effect of expertise on the quality of appraisal services [J], Journal of Real Estate Research,1998,15 (2):205-216.
46.卢纹岱.SPSS for Windows统计分析[M],北京：电子工业出版社,2000.
47.薛薇.SPSS统计分析方法及应用[M],北京：电子工业出版社,2004.
48.侯紫罗.Excel在企业管理中的应用[M],北京：中国青年出版社,2002
49.张战军.用Excel求解线性方程组[J],郑州轻工业学院学报(自然科学版),2006,21(3)：71-73.
50.王会来.房地产估价中的比较法误差研究[J],科技资讯,2005,(24)：146.