“有竞争力的通缩”模式
|
摘要
“通缩”具有过程和结果双重政策含义,作为过程,其主要表示反通货膨胀(disinflation)的政策实践；作为结果,其主要表示通货紧缩(deflation)的经济现象。本文在论证这个概念过程中主要从过程视角分析德国联邦银行、联邦政府及当前欧洲央行的政策实践。“有竞争力的通缩”的政策含义是德国经济在“通缩”政策实践的基础上产生的竞争力溢出效应的过程和结果。本文从原德国联邦银行货币政策实践出发,分析德国紧缩的货币和财政政策对德国出口竞争力的影响机制。在欧元区框架内,通过制度比较的方式分析欧洲央行货币政策设计与联邦银行之间的关联,在此基础上分析不同成员国受到的非均衡制度冲击。
本文以央行独立性为研究切入点,在文献分析的基础上,本文首先分析了德国央行货币政策独立性改革的历史背景。二战后,盟军主导下的货币政策体制改革奠定了联邦银行独立于政府的法律地位。除了盟军的推动外,德国货币政策的彻底转型则是对一段国家和民族历史的反思。佛莱堡学派奠基人欧肯所创立的社会市场经济理论是基于对传统历史学派的批判与继承的基础上发展而来,其学生艾哈德将这一理念付诸于德国的政策实践,形成了德国央行政策模式特有的宏观经济环境。联邦银行独立性货币政策实践建立在健全的法律机制基础上,受到了德国民众的广泛拥护。尤其是二战后德国强劲的经济增长完美地塑造了联邦银行良好的国际形象。德国马克较早地实现了国际化,并成为其他欧洲国家的“货币锚”,德国联邦银行的政策实践因此获得了强大的公信力。在经历央行与政府的多次对峙后,德国联邦政府最终认可了央行的政策实践并逐步转变自身的政策行为,在国内采取较为保守的财政政策,在国际上努力推动联邦银行的制度模式。
七十年代中后期,世界经济在经历两次石油危机的冲击后,陷入“滞涨”的困境中,联邦银行的政策实践进一步获得世界其他国家的追捧,联邦政府在对外货币政策协调中逐步将联邦银行从后台推向前台。在欧洲货币政策一体化实践中,联邦银行成为实际意义上的领导者,将联邦银行的相关准则写入欧洲货币制度一体化的章程中。在世界新自由主义的风潮中,联邦银行强调的物价稳定、政府支出限制等政策理念逐步被其他成员国接受。欧洲范围内最终实现了从德国联邦银行到欧洲央行的制度复制。
本文将联邦银行的政策实践放在德国式新自由主义框架内加以分析,将德国政策实践过程进一步总结为“有竞争力的通缩”模式。在此基础上以低通胀预期为视角,分析央行货币政策对实际有效汇率低估及劳动力成本压制的传递效应。进而建立贸易增长与相关变量之间的实证模型,得出德国央行的政策实践最终有利于德国出口经济的结论。这一过程中,尤其突出德国紧缩性货币和财政政策对德国竞争力的影响机制。
“有竞争力的通缩”作为一种根植于德国土壤的政策模式既是德国珍贵的政策遗产,同时也成为德国经济发展的桎梏,并为欧元区其他国家所诟病。本质而言,这种通过低通胀压低汇率和劳动力成本的政策手法一方面造成德国长期无法摆脱出口依赖的局面,另一方面也造成欧元区内贸易的失衡。“有竞争力的通缩”捆绑着德国社会、经济和政府宏观经济特征,具有深厚的地域特色和历史根源,在欧元区的适用困境因为欧债危机的爆发而凸显,欧洲重新陷入“紧缩”与“增长”的争论中。没有可以重复的历史作为参照,这段可能持续良久的争论或许永远都不会得到孰优孰劣的答案。
德国出口经济尽管受到高技术水平等结构性因素的推动,但本文的实证结果也表明德国出口竞争力受益于劳动力成本和实际汇率低估的影响同样不可小觑。这对于诸多出口导向型发展中国家而言,具有较强的启迪意义。德国马克和联邦银行的政策遗产不仅仅限于欧洲,目前低通胀已经成为全世界的主流趋势,央行独立性已成为众多国家的信赖的政策模式。在现代市场经济体系下,出口竞争力的取得不可能长期依赖竞争性贬值获得。如何通过对劳动力成本和实际有效汇率进行有效控制是取得产品国际竞争力的关键。
德国经济政策可以给予世界经济更多的启迪。从古典经济学到新古典经济学的历史变革的本质是不断界定政府与市场的边界。然而,金融危机和欧债危机的双重冲击使得世界经济增长理论陷入困境,一方面,金融危机是市场的失败,另一方面,欧债危机则又是政府的失败。这一对弈结局使得任何一种偏向市场或偏向政府的经济增长理论都无法获得有说服力的政策支撑。因此,鉴于这一形势,世界经济短期内并不能发生革命性变革,很可能沿袭传统路径修正地走下去,目前形势已经表明世界经济颇有重返新自由主义之势。然而鉴于金融危机的历史教训,可以肯定的是,世界经济并不会重蹈金融危机前的新自由主义模式之覆辙,很可能是另一种新自由主义。研究德国“有竞争力的通缩”模式的还有助于为探索一种新的新自由主义模式提供一条路径选择。
The German Bundesbank is reputed for its high independence from the federal government in implementing its anti-inflationary policy throughout the latter half of the20th century. Unlike the government's concern on employment and growth, the Bundesbank saw the price stability as the sole objective and adopted a deflated policy stubbornly. Generally, politicians were more inclined to conduct an easing policy to fill the gap of effective domestic demand, which was very popular under the Keynes paradigm before the stagflation in1970s. For many times, the Bundesbank conducted a tighten policy in order to restrain arising or potential inflation. Therefore, Conflicts between the federal government and the central bank were very frequent and unavoidable. However, the inflation-averse policy was proved by German glorious growth, and the Deutsch Mark was seen as a symbol of German long and sustainable prosperity. As a result, the Bundesbank's way of policy was ultimately accepted by the federal government.
It is a long process before the government recognized that the Bundesbank's policy posed no threaten to the government's policy. A variety of researches have been conducted on how the Bundesbank managed to be independent from the government's intervention and similar conclusion has been made that it was depended on German unique history and stability culture. The Hyper-inflation in1923first made the German people aware of the Weimar Government's incredibility and that pulled the Nazi onto the political stage. Unfortunately, the Reich Mark's ineffectiveness in Nazi's price-controlled economy even made people more desperate. Thus, at the end of the world war II, what people want most was a more credible and independent central bank. It was the occupation authority of Allied Army who initiated the1948central bank policy reform saved the German Mark. The newly redesigned Bundesbank was first copied from the Federal Reserve's Mode, and then the1957reform ultimately made it a typical German style independent central Bank. In the time aftermath, the Deutsch Mark witnessed a high economic growth of post war era and German reunification. The Bundesbank did a historical performance in keeping a low and steady inflation. However, during the German reunification in1989, the Bundesbank also adopted a radical and abnormal way of easing monetary policy in order to comfort the pains of the East Germans. At the turning of the new century, the Mark left the stage and the Euro elongates the Deutsch Mark's performance.
The motivation of the thesis is to redesign the theoretic framework of "Competitive Disinflation" which was first given by Jean-Claude Trichet as the former French financial minister in1983. Basically,"Competitive Disinflation" is a process of competitiveness gaining through adopting anti-inflation policies of the central bank and strict austerity measures from the government.
"Competitive Disinflation" is deeply rooted in the long history with unique culture of German society and economy. The article tries to redefine the attributes of the "Competitive Disinflation" under the framework of the Freiburg School, German social market economy, and to differentiate German-type Neo-liberalism from the main stream of Neo-liberalism. Clearly, in the scenario of the disinflation, expansionary macroeconomic policies are typically restricted. The "Competitive Disinflation" provides a framework of non-interventionism for either government or the central bank, and an independent central bank is at the heart of the framework.
The Bundesbank had its own distinctive way to implement monetary policy compared with the Fed and many other central banks in the post Breton Woods time. One obvious feature of the Bundesbank's policy was to announce annual monetary target since1975and that really worked well and had cooled down the markets' expectation of potential inflation for decades. More than that, theoretic model shows that low inflation expectation not only helps to keep a misaligned real exchange rate, but also helps to maintain a stagnated wage pricing through the Bundesbank's signaling function in the collective wage bargaining. For the exchange rate misalignment, the thesis tries to analyze it in the BEER approach to test Deutsch Mark and the Euro respectively and find that German currencies in different period are clearly undervalued. For the labor cost, the article intends to define the interaction process of the Bundesbank, the Federal government and trade unions in a triangle, and finds that trade unions will adopt a conservative way when facing of the potential policy response of the Bundesbank if their wage raising would cause certain degree of inflation. Furthermore, in the framework of "Competitive Disinflation", the government would also adopt some similar steps to coordinate with the Bundesbank's signaling and suppress the trade unions'behavior through income tax and labor market reform. In a conclusion,"Competitive Disinflation" is a policy model or framework, in which the central bank plays a dominant role, the government and other social partners coordinate with each other. Non-expansionary macroeconomic measures are at the heart of the process.
The European Central Bank inherits most of the instincts of the Bundesbank, for instances, similar strategy of price stability and monetary targeting, that it is deemed a complete copy of the Bundesbank. Nevertheless, rather than the scale of German economy, the emulation of the ECB was the result of the German economic model and its success experience in maintaining competitiveness, basically, it is the persuasive power of the Bundesbank's anti-inflation practice, the government's austerity behaviors, and the confidence hold by politicians of other member states that Germany's success could be replicated on the EMU level. Seen from the laws which backed the ECB, the SGP and TFEU particularly identify the clauses of price stability, central bank's role and fiscal policy discipline, a complete copy from German laws. However, in facing of the current imbalance in the Euro area, the article tries to further explore the competitive factors from the perspective of feasibility of "competitive disinflation" in the Euro area. Empirical studies show that "competitive disinflation" is not equally functioned across the Euro area, particularly it is not performing well in periphery countries. Therefore, one of the main conclusions is that unlike other member states, the unparalleled performance of Germany in the crisis indicates that "competitive disinflation" model in the Euro framework is one key factor in driving current economic turmoil in the Euro area.
The Article tries to debate on the imbalanced influence of "competitive disinflation" on Euro area export competitiveness thus to certify that Germany still benefits from the dividend of "competitive disinflation" in the Euro system. Empirically findings show that German exportation is not only solely promoted by high tech factor, but also benefited from suppressed labor cost and misaligned real effective exchange rate. For those export-oriented developing countries, the German model could give an inspiration for their domestic reform. As a matter of fact, the policy heritage of Deutsch Mark and the Bundesbank is not only beneficial to EU, but also other countries. The strategic importance of central bank independence has been accepted by many countries. They are getting known that a low inflation can help to main a low real effective exchange rate and low labor cost. Empirical findings of the article have also proved an evident negative relationship between low inflation and export competitiveness.
本文以央行独立性为研究切入点,在文献分析的基础上,本文首先分析了德国央行货币政策独立性改革的历史背景。二战后,盟军主导下的货币政策体制改革奠定了联邦银行独立于政府的法律地位。除了盟军的推动外,德国货币政策的彻底转型则是对一段国家和民族历史的反思。佛莱堡学派奠基人欧肯所创立的社会市场经济理论是基于对传统历史学派的批判与继承的基础上发展而来,其学生艾哈德将这一理念付诸于德国的政策实践,形成了德国央行政策模式特有的宏观经济环境。联邦银行独立性货币政策实践建立在健全的法律机制基础上,受到了德国民众的广泛拥护。尤其是二战后德国强劲的经济增长完美地塑造了联邦银行良好的国际形象。德国马克较早地实现了国际化,并成为其他欧洲国家的“货币锚”,德国联邦银行的政策实践因此获得了强大的公信力。在经历央行与政府的多次对峙后,德国联邦政府最终认可了央行的政策实践并逐步转变自身的政策行为,在国内采取较为保守的财政政策,在国际上努力推动联邦银行的制度模式。
七十年代中后期,世界经济在经历两次石油危机的冲击后,陷入“滞涨”的困境中,联邦银行的政策实践进一步获得世界其他国家的追捧,联邦政府在对外货币政策协调中逐步将联邦银行从后台推向前台。在欧洲货币政策一体化实践中,联邦银行成为实际意义上的领导者,将联邦银行的相关准则写入欧洲货币制度一体化的章程中。在世界新自由主义的风潮中,联邦银行强调的物价稳定、政府支出限制等政策理念逐步被其他成员国接受。欧洲范围内最终实现了从德国联邦银行到欧洲央行的制度复制。
本文将联邦银行的政策实践放在德国式新自由主义框架内加以分析,将德国政策实践过程进一步总结为“有竞争力的通缩”模式。在此基础上以低通胀预期为视角,分析央行货币政策对实际有效汇率低估及劳动力成本压制的传递效应。进而建立贸易增长与相关变量之间的实证模型,得出德国央行的政策实践最终有利于德国出口经济的结论。这一过程中,尤其突出德国紧缩性货币和财政政策对德国竞争力的影响机制。
“有竞争力的通缩”作为一种根植于德国土壤的政策模式既是德国珍贵的政策遗产,同时也成为德国经济发展的桎梏,并为欧元区其他国家所诟病。本质而言,这种通过低通胀压低汇率和劳动力成本的政策手法一方面造成德国长期无法摆脱出口依赖的局面,另一方面也造成欧元区内贸易的失衡。“有竞争力的通缩”捆绑着德国社会、经济和政府宏观经济特征,具有深厚的地域特色和历史根源,在欧元区的适用困境因为欧债危机的爆发而凸显,欧洲重新陷入“紧缩”与“增长”的争论中。没有可以重复的历史作为参照,这段可能持续良久的争论或许永远都不会得到孰优孰劣的答案。
德国出口经济尽管受到高技术水平等结构性因素的推动,但本文的实证结果也表明德国出口竞争力受益于劳动力成本和实际汇率低估的影响同样不可小觑。这对于诸多出口导向型发展中国家而言,具有较强的启迪意义。德国马克和联邦银行的政策遗产不仅仅限于欧洲,目前低通胀已经成为全世界的主流趋势,央行独立性已成为众多国家的信赖的政策模式。在现代市场经济体系下,出口竞争力的取得不可能长期依赖竞争性贬值获得。如何通过对劳动力成本和实际有效汇率进行有效控制是取得产品国际竞争力的关键。
德国经济政策可以给予世界经济更多的启迪。从古典经济学到新古典经济学的历史变革的本质是不断界定政府与市场的边界。然而,金融危机和欧债危机的双重冲击使得世界经济增长理论陷入困境,一方面,金融危机是市场的失败,另一方面,欧债危机则又是政府的失败。这一对弈结局使得任何一种偏向市场或偏向政府的经济增长理论都无法获得有说服力的政策支撑。因此,鉴于这一形势,世界经济短期内并不能发生革命性变革,很可能沿袭传统路径修正地走下去,目前形势已经表明世界经济颇有重返新自由主义之势。然而鉴于金融危机的历史教训,可以肯定的是,世界经济并不会重蹈金融危机前的新自由主义模式之覆辙,很可能是另一种新自由主义。研究德国“有竞争力的通缩”模式的还有助于为探索一种新的新自由主义模式提供一条路径选择。
The German Bundesbank is reputed for its high independence from the federal government in implementing its anti-inflationary policy throughout the latter half of the20th century. Unlike the government's concern on employment and growth, the Bundesbank saw the price stability as the sole objective and adopted a deflated policy stubbornly. Generally, politicians were more inclined to conduct an easing policy to fill the gap of effective domestic demand, which was very popular under the Keynes paradigm before the stagflation in1970s. For many times, the Bundesbank conducted a tighten policy in order to restrain arising or potential inflation. Therefore, Conflicts between the federal government and the central bank were very frequent and unavoidable. However, the inflation-averse policy was proved by German glorious growth, and the Deutsch Mark was seen as a symbol of German long and sustainable prosperity. As a result, the Bundesbank's way of policy was ultimately accepted by the federal government.
It is a long process before the government recognized that the Bundesbank's policy posed no threaten to the government's policy. A variety of researches have been conducted on how the Bundesbank managed to be independent from the government's intervention and similar conclusion has been made that it was depended on German unique history and stability culture. The Hyper-inflation in1923first made the German people aware of the Weimar Government's incredibility and that pulled the Nazi onto the political stage. Unfortunately, the Reich Mark's ineffectiveness in Nazi's price-controlled economy even made people more desperate. Thus, at the end of the world war II, what people want most was a more credible and independent central bank. It was the occupation authority of Allied Army who initiated the1948central bank policy reform saved the German Mark. The newly redesigned Bundesbank was first copied from the Federal Reserve's Mode, and then the1957reform ultimately made it a typical German style independent central Bank. In the time aftermath, the Deutsch Mark witnessed a high economic growth of post war era and German reunification. The Bundesbank did a historical performance in keeping a low and steady inflation. However, during the German reunification in1989, the Bundesbank also adopted a radical and abnormal way of easing monetary policy in order to comfort the pains of the East Germans. At the turning of the new century, the Mark left the stage and the Euro elongates the Deutsch Mark's performance.
The motivation of the thesis is to redesign the theoretic framework of "Competitive Disinflation" which was first given by Jean-Claude Trichet as the former French financial minister in1983. Basically,"Competitive Disinflation" is a process of competitiveness gaining through adopting anti-inflation policies of the central bank and strict austerity measures from the government.
"Competitive Disinflation" is deeply rooted in the long history with unique culture of German society and economy. The article tries to redefine the attributes of the "Competitive Disinflation" under the framework of the Freiburg School, German social market economy, and to differentiate German-type Neo-liberalism from the main stream of Neo-liberalism. Clearly, in the scenario of the disinflation, expansionary macroeconomic policies are typically restricted. The "Competitive Disinflation" provides a framework of non-interventionism for either government or the central bank, and an independent central bank is at the heart of the framework.
The Bundesbank had its own distinctive way to implement monetary policy compared with the Fed and many other central banks in the post Breton Woods time. One obvious feature of the Bundesbank's policy was to announce annual monetary target since1975and that really worked well and had cooled down the markets' expectation of potential inflation for decades. More than that, theoretic model shows that low inflation expectation not only helps to keep a misaligned real exchange rate, but also helps to maintain a stagnated wage pricing through the Bundesbank's signaling function in the collective wage bargaining. For the exchange rate misalignment, the thesis tries to analyze it in the BEER approach to test Deutsch Mark and the Euro respectively and find that German currencies in different period are clearly undervalued. For the labor cost, the article intends to define the interaction process of the Bundesbank, the Federal government and trade unions in a triangle, and finds that trade unions will adopt a conservative way when facing of the potential policy response of the Bundesbank if their wage raising would cause certain degree of inflation. Furthermore, in the framework of "Competitive Disinflation", the government would also adopt some similar steps to coordinate with the Bundesbank's signaling and suppress the trade unions'behavior through income tax and labor market reform. In a conclusion,"Competitive Disinflation" is a policy model or framework, in which the central bank plays a dominant role, the government and other social partners coordinate with each other. Non-expansionary macroeconomic measures are at the heart of the process.
The European Central Bank inherits most of the instincts of the Bundesbank, for instances, similar strategy of price stability and monetary targeting, that it is deemed a complete copy of the Bundesbank. Nevertheless, rather than the scale of German economy, the emulation of the ECB was the result of the German economic model and its success experience in maintaining competitiveness, basically, it is the persuasive power of the Bundesbank's anti-inflation practice, the government's austerity behaviors, and the confidence hold by politicians of other member states that Germany's success could be replicated on the EMU level. Seen from the laws which backed the ECB, the SGP and TFEU particularly identify the clauses of price stability, central bank's role and fiscal policy discipline, a complete copy from German laws. However, in facing of the current imbalance in the Euro area, the article tries to further explore the competitive factors from the perspective of feasibility of "competitive disinflation" in the Euro area. Empirical studies show that "competitive disinflation" is not equally functioned across the Euro area, particularly it is not performing well in periphery countries. Therefore, one of the main conclusions is that unlike other member states, the unparalleled performance of Germany in the crisis indicates that "competitive disinflation" model in the Euro framework is one key factor in driving current economic turmoil in the Euro area.
The Article tries to debate on the imbalanced influence of "competitive disinflation" on Euro area export competitiveness thus to certify that Germany still benefits from the dividend of "competitive disinflation" in the Euro system. Empirically findings show that German exportation is not only solely promoted by high tech factor, but also benefited from suppressed labor cost and misaligned real effective exchange rate. For those export-oriented developing countries, the German model could give an inspiration for their domestic reform. As a matter of fact, the policy heritage of Deutsch Mark and the Bundesbank is not only beneficial to EU, but also other countries. The strategic importance of central bank independence has been accepted by many countries. They are getting known that a low inflation can help to main a low real effective exchange rate and low labor cost. Empirical findings of the article have also proved an evident negative relationship between low inflation and export competitiveness.
引文
1 Trichet, J.C. "Dix ans de desinflation competitive en France," Notes Bleues de Bercy 16-31, Octobre,1992:1-12.
2 J. P. Fitoussi etc. Competitive Disinflation:The Mark and Budgetary Politics In Europe, Oxford University Press, 1993:2.
1 Nordhaus, W. "The political business cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Vol.42.,1975:169-190.
2 MacRae, C. D. "A political model of the business cycle," The Journal of Political Economy,1977:239-263.
3 Willms, M. "The Monetary Policy Decision Process in the Federal Repubhc of Germany," in Donald R. Hodgman, ed., "The Political Economy of Monetary Policy:National and International Aspects," Conference, Series No.26. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Julv 1983:34-64.
4 Shiller, R. J. Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models:A critical review. Journal of Monetary Economics,1978,4(1):1-44.
1 Kydland, F. E., & Prescott, E. C. "Rules rather than discretion:The inconsistency of optimal plans," The Journal of Political Economy,1977:473-491.
2 Fischer, S. "Central-bank Independence Revisited," American Economic Review Vol.85.2,1995:201-206.
3 相关表述引自：范方志：中央银行独立性.理论与实践[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2007.
4 Rogoff, K. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," Quarterly Journal of Economics. Vol.100.1985:1169-1190.
5 Alesina, A., & Summers, L.H. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance:Some Comparative Evidence," lournal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol.25(2), May,1993:151-162.
1 Cukierman, A. Edwards, S. & Tabellini, G. "Seignorage and Political Instability," American Economic Review, June 1992:537-55.
2 Cukierman, A., Web, S. B. & Neyapti, B. "Measuring the independence of central banks and its effect on policy outcomes." The World Bank Economic Review.1992:353-398.
Cargill, T. F. "The statistical association between central bank independence and inflation," BNL Quarterly Review, No.193,1995.
4 劳伦斯S.科普兰.汇率与国际金融[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2011：36.
5 Friedman, M. "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates" In Essays in Positive Economics,157-203. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.1953.
6 Marshall, A. Principles of Economics. London:Macmillan,1961.
7 Engel, C., & Rogers, J. H., "Regional patterns in the law of one price:the roles of geography vs. currencies," NBER, No. w5395,1995.
1 Devereux, Michael B., and Charles Engel. "Fixed vs. floating exchange rates:How price setting affects the optimal choice of exchange-rate regime." No. w6867. National Bureau of Economic Research,1998.
2 Charles Engel, and John H. Rogers." Violating the law of one price:should we make a federal case out of it?.
'No. w7242. National Bureau of Economic Research,1999.
" Balassa, B. "The purchasing-power parity doctrine:a reappraisal," The Journal of Political Economy, Vol.72.6, 1964:584.
4 胡岖.中国各地区间一价定律研究[D].复旦大学,2010.
5 韩胜飞,戴金平.国际商品市场中“一价定律”的验证：共同概率模型和动态贸易变量[J].南开经济研究,2006年第2期。
1 Branson, W. H. "The Minimum Covered Interest Differential Needed for International Arbitrage Activity," Journal of Political Economy, Vol.77(6),1969:1028-1035.
2 Frenkel, J. A., & Levich, R. M. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage:Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods,' Journal of Political Economy, Vol.85(6),1977:1209-1226.
1 Kreicher, L. L. "Eurodollar Arbitrage," Quarterly Review, vol.7, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Summer 1982. Available at:http://www.nber.org/papcrs/w1187.pdf?new window=1last accessed at 26th Feb.2014.
2 曹志鹏.利率平价理论在中国的实证检验：2006—2008[D].山东大学博士论文,2008：19.
3 同上.
4 Cumby, R. E., & Obstfeld, M. "A Note on Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials:A Test of the Fisher Hypothesis," The Journal of Finance, Vol.36.3,1981:697-703. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0537.pdf last accesswed at 26th Feb.2014.
5 Hill, C. W. L. International business:competing in the global market place, Mc GrawHill.2007.
6 Fama, E. F., & Gibbons, M. R. "Inflation, real returns, and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, May.1982:297-327.
7 Huizinga, J. & Mishkin, F. S. "Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates," NBER WORKING PAPER, No.1678,1982. Available at:http://www.nber.org/papers/wl 678,pdf?new window=1
1 Utami, S. R., & Inanga, E. L. "Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Inflation Rates in Indonesia, the Internationa] Fisher Effect Theory," International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol.26,2009.
2 Shalishali, M. K. "A Test of the International Fisher Effect in Selected Asian Countries," International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, Vol.2, No.4,2012.
3 Modigliani, F., & Cohn, R."Inflation, Rational Valuation, and the Market," Financial Analysts'Journal,1979.
4 Tanzi, V. "Inflationary expectations, economic activity, taxes, and interest rates," The American Economic Review,1980:12-21.
5 Summers, L. H. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates:A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Paper, No.836,1982. Available at:http://www.nber.org/papers/w0836.pdf?new window-1
6 Fried, J., & Howitt, P. "The effects of inflation on real interest rates," The American Economic Review,1983: 968-980. Available at:https://notendur.hi.is/～ajonsson/kennsla2005/fried.pdf
1 大卫.李嘉图(1817)在《政治经济学及赋税原理》中将一国经济分为以农业为代表的“母国部门”,和以工业为代表的“制造部门”,受到自由市场竞争的影响,后者生产效率的增长明显高于前者。巴萨理论继承了李嘉图的两部门经济的划分思想,并认为贸易部门的生产率要高于非贸易部门。相关内容整理自：吴凌.巴拉萨--萨缪尔森效应在中国的检验[D].上海社会科学院,2008：7.
2 王凯.人民币实际汇率研究[M].西北工业大学出版社,2012：74.
1 Gregorio, J.D. & Wolf, H.C. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Paper, No.4807,1994.
2 Canzoneri. M.B., Cumby, R.E. & Diba, B. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run:Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries." Journal of International Economics. Vol.47,1999:245-266.
3 Hsieh, D. A. The Determination of the Real Exchange Rate:The Productivity Approach. Journal of International Economics,1982, (12):55-362.
1 Cushman, D. O. "The effects of exchange rate risk on international trade and direct investment," PhD. Thesis of Vanderbilt University,1980.
Koray, F. & Lastrapes, W. D. "Real exchange rate volatility and US bilateral trade:a VAR approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.71(4),1989:708-12.
3 Mendoza, E. G. "The terms of trade, the real exchange rate, and economic fluctuations," International Economic Review,1995:101-137.
4 Gregorio, J.D. & Wolf, H.C. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Paper, No.4807,1994. Available at:http://www.nber.org/papers/w4807.pdf?new window=1, last accessed on 28th Feb. 2014.
5 Chinn, M., & Johnston, L. "Real exchange rate levels, productivity and demand shocks:evidence from a panel of 14 countries," NBER Working Paper, No.5709,1996. Available at:http://www.nber.org/papers/w5709.pdf?new window=1 lassed accessed on 28th Feb.2014.
1 Razin, O. & Collins, S. M. "Real exchange rate misalignments and growth," NBER, No.6174,1997.
2 Eichengreen, B. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," University of California, Berkeley, Prepared for the World Bank's Commission on Growth. July,2007.
3 Lane, P. R. & Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. "External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate,' European Economic Review,Vol.46,2002:1049-1071.
Frenkel, R. & Taylor, L. "Real exchange rate, monetary policy, and employment:economic development in a garden of forking paths," conference Alternatives to Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy for Stable and Egalitarian Growth in Developing Countries, CEDES, Buenos Aires.2005.
5 Ghura, D., & Grennes, T. J. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Vol.42(1).1993:155-174.
Zhang, Zhichao. "Real exchange rate misalignment in China:An empirical investigation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol.29 (1),2001:80-94.
7 张琳,廉永辉.实际汇率、产业结构和城乡收入差距[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(12).
8 巴曙松,王群.人民币实际有效汇率对我国产业、就业结构影响的实证分析[J].财经理论与实践,2009(3).
Driver, R.L., & Westaway, P.F. "Concepts of equilibrium real exchange rates," Working Paper, Bank of England, 2001.
1 姜波克等.经济增长中均衡汇率的实现与作用[J].国际金融研究,2004,(12).
2 Edwards, S. "The Determination of Equilibrium Exchange Rate," UCLA Working Paper No.508, Sep.1988. Available at:http://www.econ.ucla.edu/workingpapers/wp508.pdfaccessed on 28th Feb.2014.
1 赵登峰.人民币市场均衡汇率与实际汇率研究[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社.2005.
2 刘阳.均衡汇率与人民币汇率机制研究[M].成都：西南财经大学出版社,2006.
3 许少强,马丹和宋赵晗.人民币实际汇率研究[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2006.
4 许罕多.人民币实际有效汇率错位研究[J].当代经济研究,2011.7.
5 Wadhwani, S. "Currency Puzzles," mimeo. Bank of England,1999.
6 Closterman. J. and B. Schnatz, "The Determinants of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate?" in:Konjunkturpolitik, Vol.44,2000:207-230.
7 Ghura, D.,&Grennes, T. J. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Vol.42,1993:155-74.
s Shabsigh, G., & Domac. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth-Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia," International Monetary Fund,1999.
9 Chinn, M. D. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates:Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open economies review.2006:115-143.
10 Hooper, P.&Kohlhagen, S. W. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Vol.8(4).1978:483-511.
11 Dellas, H., & Zilberfarb, B. Z. "Real exchange rate volatility and international trade:a reexamination of the theory," Southern Economic Journal, Vol.59,1993:641-641.
12 Baldwin, R., & Krugman, P. "Persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.104(4),1989:635-654.
1 Ronald MacDonald. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates:An Overview," Discussion paper 3/200, Economic Research Group of the Deutsch Bundesbank. July 2000.
1 Huizinga. J., "An Empirical Investigation of the Long-Run Behavior of Real Exchange Rates'", in: Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol.27,1987:149-214.
2 Robert, E., &, Huizinga, J. "The Predictability of Real Exchange Rate Changes in the Short and Long Run"" NBER Working Paper No.3468.
3 Clarida, R. and J. Gali, "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations:How Important are Nominal Schocks?" in: Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, Vol.41,1994:1-56.
1 Enrique Alberola, Susana G. Cervero, Humberto Lopez, and Angel Ubide" Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "ins," "outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework" IMF working paper no.99/175, November 1999.
2 Ronald MacDonald. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates:An Overview" Discussion paper 3/200, Economic Research Group of the Deutsch Bundesbank. July 2000.
3 Faruqee, Isard, H.P., & Masson, P. R. "A Macroeconomic Balance Framework for Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," in:R. MacDonald and J. Stein (eds.), Equilibrium Exchange Rates, Amsterdam:Kluter.1999.
4 External Balance Assessment (EBA):Technical Background of the Pilot Methodology," IMF Report, August 3, 2012.
1 张明.IMF评估汇率失衡的新方法EBA述评[J].经济学动态,2012.7.
1 推导过程参考：方齐云,方臻旻.国际经济学[M1.东北财经大学出版社.2009：216-217.
1 杨立.国际货币经济学[M].上海：上海外国语大学出版社.2008：154-170.
1 Deutsche Bundesbank.Fifty years of the Deutsche Mark:Central bank and currency in Germany since 1948, Oxford University Press.1999.
2 Martin T. Bohl al etc. "The Bundesbank's Inflation Policy and Asymmetric Behavior of the German Term Structure" Review of International Economics, Volume 12, Issue 3, August 2004:495-508.
1 Fischer, Wolfgang Chr., ed. German Hyperinflation 1922/23:A Law and Economics Approach. Eul-Verlag Koln, 2010:84.
2 为稳定“地租马克”,1923年10月25日帝国银行对德国境内所有的交易所设定统一的外汇交易汇率,当时仅根据粗略的估算,按照4.2万亿“纸币马克”兑换1美元进行交易。受其影响,1923年12月市场定价也比较接近官方的汇率标准。然而由于考虑到商业活动的影响,帝国银行在贷款控制方面较为宽松,市场上新增贷款较快,截止1923年11月30日,共向市场投放3.64亿金马克,随后的连续几个月月末分别达到6万亿、11.02万亿、14.82万亿,1924年3月底增长到19.15万亿。同时由于固定的汇率平价,外汇市 场上外汇需求旺盛,马克出现贬值的势头。1924年4月7日,帝国银行声明紧缩信贷,这一政策产生良好的影响,到当年6月3日,帝国银行便可以完全满足外汇市场上的外汇需求。
1 最早在1923年德国经历历史最严重的通货膨胀时,当时的德国政府就着手推动央行的管理和立法,最终于1924年出台《银行法案》。此外,德国还推动制订《1925价值评估法案》作为汇率价格确定的依据,Gesetz iiber die Aufwertung von Hypotheken und anderen Anspruchen or Aufwertungsgesetze, a.k.a. the Revaluation Act 1925.
Ostantino Bresciani-Turroni "Economics of Inflation:A Study of Currency Depreciation in Post-War Germany" Ludwig von Mises Institute, JohnDickens&CO LTD, Northampton,2007:334-358.
Peter Henning Loedel. Deutsche Mark Politics, Boulder London:Lynne Rienner Publishers,1999:55.
1 Robert L. Hetzel "German monetary history in the second half of the twentieth century:from the Deutsch Mark to the Euro", FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol.88, no.2, Spring 2002:41-45.
2 唐欣语.从怀特计划、凯恩斯计划到<国际货币基金组织协定>[J].银行家,2010.3.
1 Bank Deutscher Lander也有翻译为“多邦银行”,本文统一称为“各邦银行”。
1 事实上,随后不久州银行权力还是受到诸多限制,各邦银行(后来的联邦央行)仍占主导地位。
2 Hetzel, R. L. "German monetary history in the second half of the twentieth century:from the Deutsch Mark to the Euro", FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol.88, no.2, Spring 2002:29-64.
1 晏小宝：战后联邦德国的货币改革和货币管理[J].世界经济研究,1985.06.
2 Deutsche Bundesbank. Fifty years of the Deutsche Mark:Central bank and currency in Germany since 1948, Oxford University Press,1999:92-95.
3 Ibid.
1 Ibid.
2 Hetzel, R. L. "German monetary history in the second half of the twentieth century:from the Deutsch Mark to the Euro," FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol.88, no.2, Spring 2002:pp.29-64.
3 全材"Grundgesetz fur die Bundesrepublik Deutschland"
1 后来随着EMU谈判的深入,“联合阵线”内出现分化,执委会成员更倾向于国际化导向的货币政策,而来自联邦州的成员则更倾向于国内导向的货币政策。
2 Konig, R., & Willeke, C. "German Monetary Unification:Domestic and External Issues" in Stephen F. Frowen and Robert Pringle edited. Inside the Bundesbank, St. Martin's Press, Inc.,1998:21-31.
1 也考虑到实际接受情况,对部分申请者也可以设定2000、3000或6000不等的额度,按照1：1比率兑换,总平均而言,负债和资产部分的兑换比率为1：1.8。
2 Konig, R., & Willeke, C. "German Monetary Unification:Domestic and External Issues" in Stephen F. Frowen and Robert Pringle (Eds), Inside the Bundesbank, St. Martin's Press, Inc.,1998:21-31.
1 相关条文1 Die Deutsche Bundesbank...mit dem Ziel, die Wahrung zu sichern, und sorgt fur die bankmaβige Abwicklung des Zahlungsverkehrs im Inland und mit dem Ausland."
2 Peter Henning Loedel "Deutsche Mark Politics", Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London,1999:47.
1 Maier & Haan, J. "How independent is the Bundesbank really? A survey" in Jakob de Haan (eds). The History of the Bundesbank:Lessons for the ECB, Routledge,2000.
1 Deutsch Bundesbank, Annual Report,1975.
1 Berger, H. "The Bundesbank's Path to Independence:Evidence from the 1950s,'" Public Choice, Volume 93, Issue 3-4. Dec.1997:427-453.
Johnson, Peter A. The government of money:Monetarism in Germany and the United States. Ithaca:Cornell University Press.1998.
3 德国黄金储备资产的估算按照黄金购入时的价格或者价格下跌时的市场价格计算,而当价格一直上涨时,联邦银行却很少考虑估算黄金资产的现值。德国这种较低价规则(Niederstwertprinzip)使得德国黄金储备的低估明显超过其他EMS成员国,其他欧洲国家中仅有瑞士略低于德国的估算水平。德国的主要黄金储备购于六十年代,当时价格为35美元／盎司,1997年时德国央行黄金储备账户上仍然按照125马克／盎司的价格计价,而对应的市场价格已经达到588马克／盎司,因此,1997年德国黄金储备以市价计算可折合为559亿马克,但在央行帐户中仅有137马克。因此,如果重新按照市场现值估算黄金储备,必然会出现较大的账面盈余,联邦政府作为德国央行最大的股东在出现债务赤字时,自然想到通过黄金储备增值部分差额弥补赤字。内容参见：Mark Duckenfield. "The GoldKrieg:Revaluing the Bundesbank's reserves and the Politics of EMU" Program for the study of Germany and Europe Working Paper Series 8.6, Harvard University, Sep.1998.
1 1977年卡特政府财政部长布鲁梅萨(Michael Blumeuthal)以日本和前联邦德国的贸易顺差为理由,开始对马克和日元施压,希望通过美元贬值减少美国的贸易逆差。之后美国与日德等国通过“广场协议”和“卢浮宫协议”推动马克和日元升值。
2 日本国内的零售物价水平尽管没有出现较大涨幅,但对日元投机的预期催生资产类商品泡沫的上升,与此同时,日本央行继续维持低利率,一方面遵守卢浮宫协议,另一方面减轻资本流入的影响。
3 刘涛：日本、德国应对本币升值的货币政策比较及启示：基于广场协议的分析[J].中国债券.2011.10.
1 不考虑上世纪九十年代后的日本,由于经济增长长期陷入低迷,通胀甚至为负。
2 http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/cpi-inflation.aspx
1 Loedel, P. H. "Deutsche Mark Politics", Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London,1999:p11.
1 《德国基本法》是德国宪法,Grundgesetz fur die Bundesrepublik Deutschland.
2 相关内容参考《联邦银行法(1957)》 Gesetz uber die Deutsche Bundesbank von 1957. 3 Fifty years of the Deutsche Mark:Central Bank and the currency in Germany since 1948, Oxford University Press,1999:141-159.
4 德国联邦法院由联邦宪法法院、联邦普通法院和联邦专门法院组成。
5 Loedel, P. H. Deutsche Mark Politics, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London,1999:11.
1 Hans Tietmeyer,1998:pp.1-10.
2 全称"Gesetz zur Forderung der Stabilitat und des Wachstums der Wirtschaft"
3 《固定汇率时期的货币政策(1948-1970)》收录于《德国马克与德国经济增长》北京：社会科学文献出版社,2012：253.
1 当时财政部长穆勒(Alex Moller)和后来的席勒在政策削减方面都难以取得突破,但政府的态度和央行保持一致。
Loedel, P.H. Deutsche Mark Politics, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London,1999:14.
3 周弘等《德国马克与德国经济增长》北京：社会科学文献出版社,2012：128.
4 《固定汇率时期的货币政策(1948-1970)》收录于《德国马克与德国经济增长》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2012年3月。
1 Deutsche Bundesbank. Fifty years of the Deutsche Mark:Central bank and currency in Germany since 1948, Oxford University Press,1999:313-315.
2 Juliusturm是位于德国柏林的一处塔楼建筑,1870/1871德法战争期间,法国对德国的战争赔款一直存放与此,一直到1914年才被使用,后被比喻为财政盈余基金。
Braun, H.J. The German Economy in the Twentieth Century:the German Reich and the German Federal Republic, Routledge,1990.
Deutsche Bundesbank "Fifty years of the Deutsche Mark:Central bank and currency in Germany since 1948," Oxford University Press,1999:369-371.
5 此举有可能造成货币供应的增加,进而威胁德国国内物价稳定。为此德国央行提出例外条款,亦即在德国货币价值稳定遭受威胁时,德国央行有权终止汇率干预相关义务。然而,需要指出的是,对于国内物价是否遭到威胁的判决权在德国政府。通常情况下,央行认为货币政策出现协调困难时,央行将相关问题请
1 Dyson, K. Elusive Union:The Process of Economic and Monetary Union in Europe, London:Longman,1994.转引自Chang, M. Monetary integration in the European Union, Palgrave Macmillan,2009:38.
2 冯肇伯.西德马克40年：经验.启示.借鉴[J].经济学家,1989年01期.
3 [法]米歇尔·阿格利埃塔(车艳秋,房广顺译)：新的增长机制的诞生——对罗伯特·布伦纳危机理论的反驳[J].国外理论动态,2009.5.
4 J. P. Fitoussi etc. Competitive Disinflation:The Mark and Budgetary Politics In Europe, Oxford University Press, 1993:2.
1 Clift, B. French Socialism in a Global Era. Continuum International Publishing Group,2005:143-148.
1 Lordon, F. "The Logic and Limits of Desinflation Competitive", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Spring, 1998:96-113.
2 Artus, P. "From a successful'competitive devaluation/disinflation'to a successful'competitive reduction in wage cost'?" NATIXIS Research Paper, November 23,2012-No.791.
1 程恩富.新自由主义的起源、发展及其影响[J].求是,2005.3.
2 蒋自强,石晋川.当代西方经济学流派[M].复旦大学出版社,2011：150-161.
1 艾哈德.来自竞争的繁荣[M].商务印书馆1983年版：P.81.
2 蒋自强,石晋川.当代西方经济学流派[M].复旦大学出版社,2011：150-161.
1 蒋自强,石晋川.当代西方经济学流派[M].复旦大学出版社,2011：150-161.
2 Lordon, F. "The Logic and Limits of Desinflation Competitive," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Spring 1998:96-113.
1 J. P. Fitoussi etc. Competitive Disinflation:The Mark and Budgetary Politics in Europe, Oxford University Press, 1993:2.
1 J. P. Fitoussi. "Diverging Tendencies of Competitiveness'" Briefing Paper N.1-Oct.2006, European Parliament, Committee for Economic and Monetary Affairs.
2 卢森堡法郎(Luxembourg Franc) 、比利时法郎(Belgian Franc)荷兰盾(Dutch Guilder)和丹麦克朗(Danish Krone)采用盯住马克的货币政策,实际上也是缩减版的“蛇形浮动”。在后来新的“蛇形浮动”(ERM)谈判重新开启时,实际上主要争论围绕留在“蛇形浮动”体制内的国家和离开的国家之间,前者主要指马克区,后者主要以法国和意大利等国为代表。
3 德国政府从出口角度认为汇率波动对出口产业存在较大冲击,而德国央行则从输入型通胀角度认为马克的升值会导致更多的外来资本流入使得央行推行的货币供应量目标失效。
1 1971年布雷顿森林体系的解体,史密森协定(Smithsonian Agreement)规定欧洲主要货币与美元之间的浮动幅度扩大到±2.25%,最高可能产生9%的汇率差。以设定的中心汇率为基准,若相关国家A对美元的中心汇率浮动上浮2.25%,美元对A国中心汇率下浮2.25%,则A国币值升值4.5%;国家B对美元中心汇率下浮2.25%,美元对与B国中心汇率上浮2.25%,则B国相对于美元贬值4.5%。因此,通过汇率传递效应可计算得到,A国货币对B国货币升值9%,蛇形浮动就是要避免这种叠加的汇率冲击。
2 Loedel, P. H. Deutsche Mark Politics, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London,1999:12.
3 建立欧洲货币联盟的设想最早源于魏纳报告(Werner Report),该报告由原卢森堡首相兼财政大臣Werner于1970年提出,该计划建议在欧共体内分阶段推动货币联盟的建立。随着布雷顿森林体系的解体,在德国等主要成员国的推动下,这一计划成了欧洲货币体系(EMS)的雏形。
4 需要指出的是,货币单位并非欧洲首创,公元前六世纪,小亚细亚地区就出现用3/4黄金和1/4白银铸造金银合金货币的情形。但欧洲创立的货币单位,欧洲复合货币计算单位(European Composite Unit (Euroco))作为EUA和ECA的初始形态,在布雷顿森林体系解体后成了诸多地区和国际组织建立货币单位的重要参照模式,于1974年6月被应用于国际货币基金组织的特别提款权(SDR),1974年11月用于阿拉伯通货关连单位Arab Currency Related Unit(ARCRU)、1974年12月亚洲货币单位,已及后来的欧洲货币单位ECU。
1 从1950年后,欧洲货币计价单位的概念就逐步形成,广泛应用于欧洲煤钢共同体、欧洲农业政策、社会发展基金、欧洲投资银行、欧洲统计局的价格计量,参见：The units of account as a factor of integration, Economy and Finance, Information Directorate-General, Commission of the European Communities,87/75.
2 英国后来加入欧洲货币体制,由于英镑的特殊地位,其被允许更大的波动幅度。
3 但实际上鉴于马克的国际影响力和在欧洲货币体系中的主导作用,其他EMS成员国家采取了直接盯住马克的和汇率制度,一旦双边汇率出现较大偏离,成员国央行便进行市场干预。
4 Hetzel, R. L."German monetary history in the second half of the twentieth century:from the Deutsch Mark to the Euro," FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol.88, no.2, Spring 2002:50.
5 Regulation (EEC) No 907/73 of the Council, Establishing a European Monetary Cooperation Fund,3 April 1973.
1 Wahlig, B. "Bundesbank and Federal Government Relations" in Stephen F. Frowen and Robert Pringle (Eds). Inside the Bundesbank, St. Martin s Press, Inc.,1998:52-55.
2 Peter Henning Loedel, Deutsche Mark Politics, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London,1999.
1 Kaltenthaler, K. "Bundesbank and the Formation of the ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy," German Politics, Vol.14, No.3, September 2005:297-314.
1 "Bundesbank verteidigt Autonomie durch Kompromiss," Suddeutsche Zeitung, September 14,1987.转引自：Loedel, P.H. Deutsche Mark Politics, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London,1999:81.
2 该项目由斯特劳斯-卡恩(Strauss-Kahn)和时任法国央行行长的特里谢(Trichet)负责,本文后续章节对法国“有竞争力的通缩”的政策实践亦有概述。
1 全称European Monetary Institute,后来成为欧洲央行(ECB)的前身。
2 intra-marginal intervention比之前的at the margins的不同点在于前者在汇率达到上下边界之前就开始干预,通过事先准备给政策实施留有空间。
3 也称为Delors Report,中文翻译为“德洛尔报告”,该计划分三步实现货币联盟,其中包括通过则政的重新分配,达到地区的发展平衡。比如提高发展基金、结构基金和其它社会基金的支出比例,相应减少共同农业政策的基金份额。
1 数据转引自Chang, M. Monetary integration in the European Union, Palgrave Macmillan,2009:32.
1 Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol. "A Europe Made of Money-The Emergence of the European Monetary System, " Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London,2012:30-56.
2 Goodman, J. B. Monetary Sovereignty:The Politics of Central Banking in Western Europe. Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,1992:73.
3 斯密特所坚守的维护物价稳定的货币主义理念并非一帆风顺,在德国国内甚至遭到其所在社民党(SPD)内左派势力的干涉,后者认为政府还是应该更多的考虑凯恩斯主义理念。
4 Dyson, Kenneth, & Featherstone, K.. The Road to Maastricht:Negotiating Economic and Monetary Union. Oxford:Oxford University Press,1999:747-752.
5 袁志刚,欧阳明.宏观经济学[M].格致出版社,2003.10：17.
1 Mitterand上台之后有违当初竞选中关于货币主义和自由主义的承诺,转而通过大规模的国家干预刺激经济,这也有着深刻的社会和经济根源,当时法国国有经济占据总经济规模的1/4,其他经济体大多受到政策补贴和贸易保护,与此同时,法国对资本流动采取严格管控的措施,这些经济结构特征与欧洲一体化发展、EMS汇率体制稳定的要求背道而驰。
2 Giavazzi, F., & Pagano, M. "The advantage of tying one's hands:EMS discipline and Central Bank credibility,' European Economic Review,1988:1055-1075.
1 法国的政策建议主要由‘"Fourcade Memoradum"所体现,主要包括如下四方面内容：(1)欧共体贷款；(2)共同货币计价单位；(3)欧共体内汇率协调和适应机制；(4)欧洲市场内其他政策的协调。这种类似后来欧洲货币共同体的设想之所以遭到其他成员国的反对,主要原因在于大多数成员国认为该项目有些操之过急。比如德国总理Schmidt认为欧洲国家之间巨大的经济差异使得货币共同体很难推行。(Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol:45.)
2 1978年12月4日-5日,欧共体理事会提出最终通过EMS的方案,并决定与1979年1月1日生效,但当时欧共体9各成员中仅有6个成员同意,英国直接反对,意大利和爱尔兰暂未作决定。后来法国通过外交压力,在欧共体内拒绝增加地区发展基金(Regional Development Fund)规模,拒绝向这两个国家提供资源援助。这种情况下,意大利和爱尔兰被迫做出让步,分别于10天内同意加入欧洲货币体系,当然这两个国家自身计入EMS的意愿也是决定性因素。(Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol:p.255.)
3 TNA, FCO30/2269, Giersch, "Economic Policy for the EC:The Way Forward," 4 December 1974.
1 Report of the Study Group "Economic and Monetary Union 1980" II/675/3/74-Ecofin, Brussels,8 March 1975.
2 《马约》的制订受到德国央行较多的影响,德国央行作为政策咨询机构最早在1990年9月份的备忘录中提及“鉴于货币体系内国家之间的相互关联及影响,为保证货币稳定,有必要对成员国经济、财政和劳动力市场做出规定。”随后一个更为详细的方案出台,强调物价稳定,对加入国家尽可能采取较为严格全面的程序要求。此外,德国央行在布鲁塞尔和巴塞尔的工作人员参与了《马约》条款的撰写。甚至后来欧洲央行(ECB)的章程也主要由位于巴塞尔的欧洲央行分支机构负责撰写,该章程在后来的政府间讨论中并没有被实质性的更改。(Hans Tietmeyer,1998:1-10)
3 Tietmeyer H. "The Bundesbank:Committed to Stability." Inside the Bundesbank,1998:1-10.
4 Pierre, L. S. & Martin, T. B. "The Bundesbank's Communications Strategy and Policy Conflicts with the Federal Government" Southern Economic Journal. Vol.72. No.2. Oct..2005.
5 Richard H. Clarida, Mark Gertler "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy" in Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer edited, Reducing Inflation:Motivation and Strategy,University of Chicago Press, January 1997 http://www.nber.org/chapters/c8890
6 Kaltenthaler, K. "The Bundesbank and the Formation of the ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy," German Politics,
1 欧洲货币体系(ESCB)包括ECB和欧盟成员国央行(包括非欧元区成员国央行)。
2 Article 108, the Maastricht Treaty.
3 Apel, E. Central Banking Systems Compared:the ECB, the Pre-euro Bundesbank, and the Federal Reserve System, Routledge,2003.
1 Apel, E. Central Banking Systems Compared:the ECB. the Pre-euro Bundesbank, and the Federal Reserve System, Routledge,2003.
2 也称"two pillars",该体系从供应量角度包括M3的增长目标,从通胀目标方面,充分考虑产出缺口、失业率等宏观经济因素。(Emmaauel Apel,2003:65)
3 政府若不同意央行的货币政策,其可以拖延至多两周执行新的政策,然而政策实践中政府从未运用过。
4 考虑到当前和未来的经济变量,确定货币政策,考虑的因素较德国央行更为复杂。
5 部分国际组织中,比如在IMF和GAB(借款总安排)内,限于欧盟的非主权国家特征,ECB仅具有观察员身份,而在其他组织,比如G20. OECD内都具有正式代表性。
1 货币政策独立性三个维度是基于本文的分析框架,前文在分析德国央行独立性时也采用了这一分析体系。也有学者从更多的维度和不同的角度分析央行的独立性。
2 Chang, M. Monetary integration in the European Union, Palgrave Macmillan,2009:78.
1 何慧刚.利率汇率传导机制研究：理论模型及实证检验[JJ.湖北经济学院学报,2007年3月.
1 陈岚等.德国利率市场化：全能银行之幸[R].国泰君安研究报告,2013.03.08.
1 商务部调研报告：德国国际直接投资流动趋势和格局[R],2010-12-16,参考商务部网站：http//www.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/weihurenyuan/a/201012/20101207309780.html,访问日期2014-1-7.
1 Franz Seitz. "Der DM-Umlauf im Ausland", Diskussionspapier 1/95, Deutsche Bundesbank, Mai.1995:54,转引自：赵柯.德国马克的崛起——货币国际化政治经济学分析[D].中国社会科学院研究生院,2013.6.
2 Coudert, V., Couharde, C., & Mignon, V. "On currency misalignments within the euro area," April 2012, CEPII, Working Paper,012-07.
1 Se-Eun Jeong, Jacques Mazier, Jamel Saadaoui:Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels:A FEER Approach, CEPN, No.2010-03.
2 CEPII, "Euro area real effective exchange rate misalignments," CEPII Working Paper, No 319-19, April 2012.
1 Dullien, S. "A German Model for Europe," European Council on Foreign Relations, July 2013.
1 Feldstein, M. "Weaker Euro Will Help Solve Europe Deficits Woes," Financial Times, December 19,2011.
3 本文所认为的工资协商体制,是指在德国央行参与下,通过释放稳定货币政策信号对工资谈判产生的最终影响,本文后续章节将对此进行专门论述。相比之下,传统意义上认为工会力量更倾向于推动工资价格上涨,本文的论述基于德国特定的政治和经济环境下,德国较高工会集中度对工资定价的影响。
4 Reisenbichler, A., & Morgan, K. J. "How Germany Won the Euro Crisis and Why Its Gains could be Fleeting," Foreign Affairs,20 June 2013.
1 Dullien, S. "A German Model for Europe," European Council on Foreign Relations, July 2013.
2 Soskice, D., & Iversen, T. "Multiple wage-bargaining systems in the single European currency area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol.14 (3),1998:110-124.
3 OECD. "Economic performance and the structure of collective bargaining," OECD Employment Outlook,1997
1 Ellguth, P., & Kohaut, S. "Tarifbindung und betriebliche Interessenvertretung:Aktuelle Ergebnisse," IAB-Betriebspanel 2011, WSI-Mitteilungen,4/2012.
2 有关集体谈判协调性的典型研究可以参考荷兰阿姆斯特丹大学高等劳动力研究所Jelle Visser建立的ICTWSS数据库,Jelle Visser对相关指标进行了系统的分析,包含工会、工资设定、国家干预及社会影响等当代政治经济学领域的四个重点议题。2013年4月份第四版本的ICTWSS数据涵括所有OECD及EU国家,时间覆盖度为1960年-2011年,部分更新至2012年。
3 Verzeichnis der fur allgemeinverbindlich erklarten Tarifvertrage Stand:1. Oktober 2013, Bundesministerium fur Arbeit und Soziales. Available at: http://www. bmas.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/PDF-Publikationen-DinA4/arbeitsrecht-verzeichnis-allgemeinver bindlicher-tarifvertraege.pdf? blob=publicationFile last accessed at 14/10/2013.
4 赵平.欧元区统一货币政策的适应性及其高通胀成员国的调整机制冶[J].国际金融研究,2005年第8期.
1 Franzese, Robert J., & Hall, P. A. "Institutional Dimensions of Coordinating Wage-Bargaining and Monetary Policy," Available at:http://www-personal.umich.edu/-franzese/i-p-s.hfcbwb4.pdf, last accessed at 12th Sep.2013.
2 Yellen, J. L. "Revolution and Evolution in Central Bank Communications," Remarks at University of California, Berkeley, Nov.13,2012.
3 曾刚,万志宏.中央银行沟通与货币政策：最新实践与启示[J].国际金融研究,2014.2.
1 Hedblom D. "Central Bank Independence, Centralized Wage Bargaining and Price Stability in a Monetary Policy Game," Master Thesis, Lund University,2008.
1 Berger, H., Eijffinger S. & de Haan, J. Central Bank Independence:An Update on Theory and Evidence. Journal of Economics Surveys,2001,15.3-40.
2 Cukiermanm, A. & Lippi, F. Central Bank Independence, Centralization Of Wage Bargaining, Inflation and Unemployment:Theory and Some Evidence. Economic Review, Vol.43,1999:1395-1435.
3 Cukiermanm, A. & Lippi, F. Central Bank Independence, Centralization Of Wage Bargaining, Inflation and Unemployment:Theory and Some Evidence. Economic Review,1999,43,1395-1435
4 Calmfors, L., & Driffill, J."Bargaining Structure, Corporatism and Macroeconomic Performance." Economic Policy,1988,6, pp.13-61.
5 Freeman, R. B. "Labour Market Institutions and Economic Performance," Economic Policy,1988:65-80.
6 Rowthorn, R. E. "Corporatism and Labour Market Performance" in Pekkarinen, J., Pohjola, M. and R. Rowthorn (eds.), Social Corporatism:A Superior Economic System, Oxford:Clarendon Press,1992
7 Dowrick, S. "Wage Bargaining Systems and Productivity Growth in the OCED", Offices of EPAC, Australian Government Publishing Service, Background Paper No.26, Canberra,1993.
8 Chou Y K. The Impact of Central Bank Independence and Union Concentration on Macroeconomic Perfromance in the Presence of Aggregate Supply Shocks:Evidence from 10 OECD Countries (1971-85).2001.
9 Jelle Visser, ICTWSS:Database on Institutional Characteristics of Trade Unions, Wage Setting, State Intervention and Social Pacts in 34 countries between1960 and 2012, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies (AIAS) University of Amsterdam, Version 4-April 20.
10 作者以‘Bruno-Sachs corporatism index和the Calmfors-Driffill centralization ranking'替代劳动市场合作程度。
1 马丙丽.德国工会协调劳动关系机制借鉴及启示[J].北京市工会干部学院学报,2009年3月.
2 Franzese, R. J., & Hall, P. A. "Institutional Dimensions of Coordinating Wage-Bargaining and Monetary Policy,': Available at:http://www-personal.umich.edu/～franzese/i-p-s.hfcbwb4.pdf. last accessed at 12th Feb.2014.
3 Franzese, R. J., & Hall, P. A. "Institutional Dimensions of Coordinating Wage-Bargaining and Monetary Policy" Available at:http://www-personal.umich.edu/-franzese/i-p-s.hfcbwb4.pdf, last accessed at 12th Sep.2013.
1 Collignon, S. "Macroeconomic Imbalances and Comparative Advantages in the Euro Area," European Trade Union Institute, Brussels,2012.
2 若工资指数以物价增长作为目标,则会出现工资增长快于物价增长的状况,进一步刺激物价增长,这样循环往复产生“螺旋效应”。
3 肖捷,王伟华.联邦德国工资增长控制机制及其对我国的启示[J].财政研究,1989年09期.
Individual income tax for employees in Germany, http://www.expatica.com/de/finance business/tax/Individual-income-tax-for-emplovees-in-Germany-18488.html, last accessed on 17th Sep.2013.
5 刘露露,郑春荣.从“第三条道路”理论看德国劳动力市场政策的转向——基于对哈茨改革的分析[J].德国
1 奥特玛.埃明格尔《内外平衡冲突下的德国货币与汇率政策(1948-1975)》收录于周弘等主编《德国马克与经济增长》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2012：112-164.
1 奥特玛.埃明格尔《内外平衡冲突下的德国货币与汇率政策(1948-1975)》收录于周弘等主编《德国马克与经济增长》北京：社会科学文献出版社,2012：112-164.
2 王信,齐璠.20世纪60-70年代围绕西德马克升值的争论及启示[J].经济社会体制比较,2011,(05).
3 王信,齐瑶.20世纪60-70年代围绕西德马克升值的争论及启示[J].经济社会体制比较,2011,(05).
1 1985年9月和1987年2月汇率分别为1：2.8381和1：1.8239.
2 姚大庆.欧元汇率波动对欧元区进出口贸易影响的异质性及其原因研究[J].世界经济研究,2013,(05).
1 作者根据AMECO数据库PPPs汇率数据测算。
1 王玉柱.欧洲央行降息德国为何不爽[N].新民晚报,2013-05-10.
1 有关变量的选择可参考：Gregorio, J., & Wolf, H. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Paper, No.4807, July,1994.
2 德国统计局网站：www.destatis.de
1 周弘等主编.德国马克与德国经济增长[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2012,(03)：235.
2 同上,P227.
1 从1988年起,德国联邦银行将货币供应量指标改为M3。
2 Bundesbank. Fifty years of the Deutsche Mark:Central Bank and the currency in Germany since 1948. Oxford University Press,1999:439-523.
3 Coudert, V., etc. "Do Terms of Trade Drive Real Exchange Rates? Comparing Oil and Commodity Currencies, CEPII, Working Paper, No 2008-32, December,2008.
1 “普雷维什—辛格命题”也称为“贸易条件恶化论(deteriorating trade terms theory)"
2 本文另通过处理后的数据进行均衡汇率分析,得出的结果与不能很好的解释关键时点的汇率调整。
1 Euro Area (Eurozone) Terms of Trade of Goods (Percent Change) Statistics, Available at: http://www.economvwatch.com/economic-statistics/Euro-Area/Terms Trade Goods Percent Change/last accessed at 31/10/2013.
2 Available at:http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/dailv update_e/monthlv xm manuf price e.xls, last accessed at 1/11/2013.
3 本文其他数据若没有Euro-12,则选择Euro Area数据,按照加入欧元区的时间平均计算(EA11-2000, EA12-2006, EA13-2007, EA15-2008, EA16-2010, EA17))
4 Available at:http://www.bis.org/statistics/eer/accessed at 1/11/2013.
1 史蒂文·拉特纳.德国经济为何一枝独秀[N].FT中文网,2011年06月28日.详见：http://www.ftchinese,com/story/001039302最后访问于：2013/1班0.
1 Available at:http://www.bis.org/statistics/eer/accessed at 1/11/2013.
1 关于协整方程模型的相关论述可参考：Beirne, J. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Integration in Crisis-Affected Regions," Journal of International and global Economic Studies. Vol.1(2), December 2008:1-25.
1 OECD和OEF分别对当前的均衡汇率进行测算,得出2012年欧元兑美元的合理比价分别是1.24和1.22。
2 Jean-Luc Proutat," euro dollar what does ppp say?" 8th February 2013, economic-research.bnpparibas.com, available at:http://c3352932.r32.cf0.rackcdn.com/pdf0ad8901cf436a7e663b9eele263d53a2.pdflast accessed at 1st.Dec.2013
3 Coudert, V., Couharde, V.,&Mignon, V. "On currency misalignments within the euro area," Review of International Economics,2013,21(1):35-48.
1 Cline W. R., & Williamson,J. "Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute for International Economics. Mav.2011.
2 Duwicquet, V., Mazier,J., & Saadaoui, J. "Exchange Rate Misalignments, Fiscal Federalism and Redistribution: How to Adjust in a Monetary Union," Preliminary paper presented at the 9th EUROFRAME Conference on Economic Policy Issues in the European Union, Kiel, Germany. June.2012.
1 Giavazzi F, Spaventa L. "Why the current account may matter in a monetary union:lessons from the financial crisis in the euro area," The Euro Area and The Financial Crisis,2011:199.
1 本部分相关数据转引自：蔡制宏.论德国对外贸易政策及其对我国的启示[D].对外经济贸易大学硕士论文, 2007.
1 Statistisches Bundesamt. Gesamtentwicklung des deutschen Auβenhandels ab 1950, Wiesbaden 2013. Available at: https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/Aussenhandel/Gesamtentwicklung/Tabellen/G esamtentwicklungAussenhandel.pdf?_blob=publicationFile last accessed on 8th Dec.2013.
1 蔡制宏.论德国对外贸易政策及其对我国的启示[D].对外经济贸易大学硕士论文,2007.
1 Statistisches Bundesamt, Rangfolge der Handelspartner im AuBenhandel der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Wiesbaden 2013, available at: http://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/Aussenhandel/Handelspartner/Tabellen/Rangf olgeHandelspartner.pdf?_blob=publicationFile Last accessed at 8th Dec.2013.
1 迈克尔·波特国家竞争优势[M].华夏出版社,2002：344.
2 傅钧文.德国产业竞争力与竞争优势分析[J].德国研究,2003,(04).
3 傅道忠,汤菲.德国经济政策实践及其借鉴[J].当代财经,2003,(02).
4 Ludger Lindlar. "Das missverstandene Wirtschaftswunder. Westdeutschland und die westeuropaeische nachkriegsprosperitaet. Tubingen.6.2"中译本参考周弘等主编.德国马克与经济增长[M].北京：社会科学文献 出版社,2012：431.
1 同上。
2 Stahn, K. "Has the Impact of Key Determinants of German Exports Changes? Results from Estimations of Germany's Intra euro-area and Extra-euro area Exports," Deutsche Bundesbank, Discussion Paper 07/2006, available at: http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Downloads/Publications/Discussion Paper_1/2006/2006_02_27 dkp_0 7.pdf?_blob=publicationFile last accessed at 9th Dec.2013
8 Jansen, H. "Domestic gloom and export boom:a look at German competitiveness", Ecfin Country Focus, Volume 2, Issue 6, Date:11.04.2005.
4 Blanchard, O. J., & Philippon, T. "The Quality of Labor Relations and Unemployment," MIT Department of Economics Working Paper, No.04-25,2004.
1 Danninger, S., & Joutz, F. "What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share?" IMF Working Paper, WP/07/24, February 2007.
2 Allard C. etc. "Germany, Italy, and Spain:Explaining Differences in External Sector Performance among Large Euro Area Countries", IMF Country Report No.05/401,2005. Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/cr05401.pdf last accessed at 9th Dec.2013.
3 Thorbecke, W., & Atsuyuki, K. The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Germany's Exports,2012.
1 许少强等.人民币实际汇率研究[M].复旦大学出版社,2006.5.
1 李子耐,叶阿忠.高级应用计量经济学[M].清华大学,2012年2月第1版。
1 中国新闻网：德国外贸出口额10月创历史纪录全年业绩衰退[N].2013年12月09日,http://www.chinanews.com/gj/2013/12-09/5598419.shtml访问日期：2013/12/16.
1 高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].清华大学出版社,2009：267-268.
2 同上。
1 Facts about German foreign trade in 2011, German Ministry of Economics and Technology, business growth prosperity, March 2012.
2 2012年德国对欧元区其他五个逆差国的顺差达到591.385亿欧元,占其总顺差1882.548亿欧元的31.4%。最大的顺差来源国为法国达397.034亿欧元。"Foreign trade Ranking of Germany's trading partners in foreign trade 2012" Published on May 22,2013. www.destatis.de
1 1989-1998年期间数据为EU-15,2013年及以后数据为AMECO预测数据。
1 本文数据分析显示,若加入2012年的数据,两序列将不是同阶平稳序列。
2 取对数的目的在于增强数据平稳性,同时有助于检验两者之间的弹性关系,由于序列中存在负数,因此数据处理过程中先取绝对值,然后再给予负系数处理。
1 作为一个整体上的共识,南方国家货币供应量增速要快于北方国家,北方国家经济增速快于南方国家,本文忽略相关数据的具体分析。
1 数据来自德国统计局,www.destatis.de.
1 OECD数据库：http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=AV_AN_WAGE.
1 Low-wage earners as a proportion of all employees by employment contract.
2 相关数据来自Eurostat。
3 商务部网站编译：CSU将为德法定最低工资标准设定门槛[N].2014.01.09,http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/j/jvjl/m/201401/20140100455644. shtml最后访问日期：2014/2/3.
4 国际在线：德联邦银行反对在全德国实行统一最低工资标准[N].2013-11-19,http://gb.cri.cn/42071/2013/11/19/6992s4327400.htm最后访问日期：2014/2/3.
5 Jorg Eigendorf and Sebastian Jost:A minimum wage has to be depoliticized.Welt am Sonntag.2013.9.23 http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Interviews/2013_09_29 weidmann welt am sonntag.html?view=rende r%5BDruckversion%5D 最后访问日期:2014/2/3.
1 Mudell. "A theory of optimal currency area." The American Economic Review,1961.
2 相关分析可参考：Stefan Collignon. Macroeconomic imbalances and comparative advantages in the Euro Area. Working paper, sponsored by Bertelsmann Foundation. Brussels, with European Trade Union Institute (ETUI) and Friedrich Ebert Foundation:Brussels.2012.
3 Berger, H. & Nitsch, V."The Euro's Effect on Trade Imbalances" IMF Working Paper. WP/10/226.
4 Bussiere, M.. Chudik, A. & Mehl. A. "Does the Euro Make a Difference? Spatio-Temporal Transmission of Global Shocks to Real Effective Exchange Rates in an Infinite VAR," ECB Working Paper No.1292. February 3. 2011.
5 Friedman, Milton,"The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates," in Milton Friedman, Essays in Positive Economics. (Chicago:The University of Chicago Press),1953:157-203.
6 Ghosh, Atish, Marco Terrones. and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. "Exchange Rate Regimes and External Adjustment: New Answers to an Old Debate," Manuscript.2008.
1 Chinn, M.. & Wei, Shang-Jin "A Faith-based Initiative:Do We Really Know that a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Facilitates Current Account Adjustment?" NBER Working Paper. No.14420.2008.
2 Andrew, R. "Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance. Some Evidence from Developing Countries,"'Economics Letters. Vol.34.1990:271-275.
3 Debelle, G,& Faruqee, H. "What Determines the Current Account? A Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Paper, No.96/58.1996.
4 Lane, P., & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti "External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate,"' European Economic Review, Vol.46,2002:pp.1049-1071.
5 Berger, H., & Nitsch, V. "Zooming Out:The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol.28, Issue 8,2008:pp.1244-1260.
6 Ahearne, Alan, Birgit Schmitz, and Jiirgen von Hagen "Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area." Manuscript,2007.
'Schmitz, Birgit, and Jurgen von Hagen "Current Account Imbalances and Financial Integration in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Paper. No.7262,2009.
8 European Commission "Special Report:Competitiveness Development within the Euro Area," Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, Vol.8, No.1.2009.
9 European Commission "Special Issue:The Impact of the Global Crisis on Competitiveness and Current Account Divergences in the Euro Area," Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, Vol.9, No.1,2010.
1 Blanchard.0."Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," NBER Working Paper. No.12925.2007.
2 Schmitz, B., & Hagen, J. "Current Account Imbalances and Financial Integration in the Euro Area." CEPR Discussion Paper, No.7262,2009.
3 Ju, Jiandong and Shang-Jin Wei.2007. "Current Account Adjustment:Some New Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Paper, No.13388
4 Biroli. Pietro, Gilles Mourre, and Alessandro Antonio Turrini.2010, "Adjustment in the Euro Area and Regulation of Product and Labor Markets:An Empirical Assessment", CEPR Discussion Paper Series, No.8010
5 Stefan Collignon, European Wage Bargaining, Social Dialogue and Imbalances in the Euro Area:A Note to the Committee on Employment and social Affairs of the European Parliament,18.2.2013. Available at: http://www.stefancollignon.de/PDF/European%20Wage%20Bargaining.pdflast accessed at 4th Feb.2014
6 Sinn. H. W.2013. Austerity, Growth and Inflation. Remarks on the Euro Area's unresolved Competitiveness Problems. European Parliament. PE 492.471.
1 李子耐,叶阿忠.高级应用计量经济学[M].清华大学出版社,北京,2012：p.179.
1 Lordon, F. "The logic and Limits of Desinflation Competitive." Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol 14, No. 1,1998:96-113.
1 Lordon, F. "The logic and Limits of Desinflation Com-petitive," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol 14. No.1,1998:96-113.
2 裘援平等.当代社会民主主义与“第三条道路”[M1.北京：当代世界出版社,2004：.67-68.
3 Corry D, Holtham G "Growth with stability:progressive macroeconomic policy". Institute for Public Policy. 1995:143-148.
4 Lordon, F. "The logic and limits of disinflation competitive", Oxford Review of Economic Policy,1998,14(1): 96-113.
1 James I. W. European Monetary Integration & Domestic Politics:Britain, France, and Italy, Lynne Rienner Publishers,2000:124-134.
1 James I. W. European Monetary Integration & Domestic Politics:Britain. France, and Italy. Lynne Rienner Publishers.2000:124-134.
1 Artus, P. "From a successful'competitive devaluation/disinflation" to a successful'competitive reduction in wage cost'?" NATIXIS Research Paper. November 23.2012-No.791.
2 Chang M. Monetary integration in the European Union, Palgrave Macmillan.2009:38.
3 Kaelberer, M. Money and Power in Europe:The Political Economy of European Monetary Cooperation. Albany, N.Y., SunyPree.2001.
4 对德国央行而言,其在初始阶段对欧洲货币一体化的推动一直心存疑虑,主要担心共同货币政策可能对本国货币政策独立性构成冲击。但德国政府却始终扮演主动的角色,将其视为对外政策的重要支柱。此外,法国政府从法郎地位及自身对欧洲事务的影响力出发,一直努力将自己和德国捆绑在一起,共同推动欧洲货币一体化。
1 Michele Chang:"Monetary integration in the European Union'" Palgrave Macmillan,2009:78.
1 Buti M.,&Turrini, A. "Slow but Steady? Achievements and Challenges in Competition Disinflation within the euro Area," ECFIN Economic Brief,2012.
2 余南平,梁菁.新社会风险下的西欧国家工会[J].欧洲研究,2009年第4期。
1 郑斌.法国总理呼吁德国确立最低工资制度[N].新华网,2013年09月24日.
1 搜狐财经.农村物价指数高于城市不利缩小城乡差距[N].2012年05月11日.
[1]艾哈德.来自竞争的繁荣[M].北京：商务印书馆,1983.
[2]巴曙松,王群.人民币实际有效汇率对我国产业、就业结构影响的实证分析[J].财经理论与实践,2009(3).
[3]蔡制宏.论德国对外贸易政策及其对我国的启示[D].对外经济贸易大学硕士论文,2007.
[4]曹志鹏.利率平价理论在中国的实证检验：2006—2008[D].山东大学,2008.
[5]程恩富.新自由主义的起源、发展及其影响[J].求是,2005,(03).
[6]范方志.中央银行独立性：理论与实践[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2007.
[7]冯肇伯.西德马克40年：经验.启示.借鉴[J].经济学家,1989,(01).
[8]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].清华大学出版社,2009.
[9]傅钧文.德国产业竞争力与竞争优势分析[J].德国研究,2003,(04)
[10]傅道忠,汤菲.德国经济政策实践及其借鉴[J].当代财经,2003,(02).
[11]韩胜飞,戴金平.国际商品市场中“一价定律”的验证：共同概率模型和动态贸易变量[J].南开经济研究,2006,(2).
[12]何慧刚.利率汇率传导机制研究：理论模型及实证检验[J].湖北经济学院学报,2007,(03).
[]3]李子耐.叶阿忠.高级应用计量经济学[M].北京：清华大学,2012.
[14]劳伦斯S.科普兰.汇率与国际金融[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2011.
[15]方齐云,方臻旻.国际经济学[M].东北财经大学出版社,2009年3月
[16]姜波克等.经济增长中均衡汇率的实现与作用[J].国际金融研究,2004,(12).
[17]姜新旺,李未无.“H-M-K”假说的检验——基于中国贸易结构数据的实证研究[J].国
际贸易问题,2006,(04).
[18]蒋自强,石晋川.当代西方经济学流派[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2011.
[19]刘涛.日本、德国应对本币升值的货币政策比较及启示：基于广场协议的分析[J].中国债券,2011,(10).
[20]刘阳.均衡汇率与人民币汇率机制研究[M].成都：西南财经大学出版社,2006.
[21]刘露露,郑春荣.从“第三条道路”理论看德国劳动力市场政策的转向——基于对哈茨改革的分析[J].德国研究,2009,(04).
[22]马丙丽.德国工会协调劳动关系机制借鉴及启示[J].北京市工会干部学院学报,2009,(03).
[23]迈克尔·波特国家竞争优势[M].华夏出版社,2002：344.
[24][法]米歇尔·阿格利埃塔.新的增长机制的诞生——对罗伯特·布伦纳危机理论的反驳[J].国外理论动态,2009,(05).
[25]施建淮,傅雄广.汇率传递理论文献综述[J].世界经济,2010,(05).
[26]齐璠,王信.1960s-1970s西德马克升值的争论及启示经济社会体制比较[J].经济社会体制比较,2011,(05).
[27]裘援平等.当代社会民主主义与“第三条道路”[M].北京：当代世界出版社,2004.
[28]史蒂文·拉特纳.德国经济为何一枝独秀[N]. FT中文网,2011.06.28.
[29]唐欣语.从怀特计划、凯恩斯计划到国际货币基金组织协定[J].银行家,2010,(03).
[30]王伟旭,曾秋根.警惕美国的第二次阴谋[M].人民日报出版社,2003.
[31]王玉柱.欧元区通胀差异及对经济失衡的影响分析[M]. 欧洲研究,2013,(04).
[32]王凯.人民币实际汇率研究[M].西安：西北工业大学出版社,2012.
[33]吴凌.巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应在中国的检验[D].上海社会科学院.2008
[34]肖捷,王伟华.联邦德国工资增长控制机制及其对我国的启示[J].财政研究,1989,(09).
[35]许罕多.人民币实际有效汇率错位研究[J].当代经济研究,2011,(07).
[36]许少强等.人民币实际汇率研究[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2006.
[37]晏小宝.战后联邦德国的货币改革和货币管理[J].世界经济研究,1985,(06).
[38]杨立.国际货币经济学[M].上海：上海外国语大学出版社,2008.
[39]姚大庆.欧元汇率波动对欧元区进出口贸易影响的异质性及其原因研究[J].世界经济研究,2013,(05).
[40]赵大平.人民币汇率传递对中国贸易收支的影响[M].上海：世纪出版集团,2007.
[41]赵平.欧元区统一货币政策的适应性及其高通胀成员国的调整机制冶[J].国际金融研究,2005,(08).
[42]张琳,廉永辉.实际汇率、产业结构和城乡收入差距[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(12).
[43]张明.IMF评估汇率失衡的新方法EBA述评[J].经济学动态,2012,(07).
[44]张成思.通货膨胀、经济增长与货币供应：回归货币主义?[J].世界经济,2012,(08).
[45]赵登峰.人民币市场均衡汇率与实际汇率研究[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2005.
[46]赵柯.德国马克的崛起——货币国际化政治经济学分析[D].中国社会科学院研究生院,2013,(06).
[47]周弘等.德国马克与德国经济增长[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2012.
[48]余南平,梁菁.新社会风险下的西欧国家工会[J].欧洲研究,2009, (04).
[49]郑斌.法国总理呼吁德国确立最低工资制度[N].新华网,2013.09.24.
[50]曾刚,万志宏.中央银行沟通与货币政策：最新实践与启示[J].国际金融研究,2014,(2).
[1]Alberola, E. etc. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates:Euro, Dollar,'ins,''outs,' and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF working paper no.99/175, November 1999.
[2]Alesina, A., & Summers, L.H. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol.25(2), May,1993.
[3]Allard, C. etc. "Germany, Italy, and Spain:Explaining Differences in External Sector Performance among Large Euro Area Countries", IMF Country Report, No.05/401,2005.
[4]Apel, E. Central Banking Systems Compared:the ECB, the Pre-euro Bundesbank, and the Federal Reserve System, Routledge,2003.
[5]Artus, P. "From a successful'competitive devaluation/disinflation' to a successful'competitive reduction in wage cost'?" NATIXIS Research Paper, November 23,2012.
[6]Baldwin, R., & Krugman, P. "Persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.104(4),1989.
[7]Balassa, B. "The purchasing-power parity doctrine:a reappraisal," The Journal of Political Economy,72.6,1964.
[8]Beirne, J. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Integration in Crisis-Affected Regions" Journal of International and global Economic Studies, Vol.1 (2),December 2008.
[9]Ben, S. B. "Inflation in Latin America:A New Era?" Remarks at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Economic Summit, Stanford, California, February 11,2005.
[10]Berger, H. "The Bundesbank's path to independence:Evidence from the 1950s," Public Choice, Vol.93.3-4,1997.
[11]Berger, H., Eijffinger S. & de Haan,J. "Central Bank Independence:An Update on Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economics Surveys, Vol.15,2001.
[12]Berger. H, & Nitsch, V. "The Euro's Effect on Trade Imbalances," IMF Working Paper WP/10/226,2010.
[13]Berger, H. & Nitsch, V. "Zooming Out:The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol.28, Issue 8,2008.
[14]Biroli, P., Mourre, G. & Turrini, A. "Adjustment in the Euro Area and Regulation of Product and Labor Markets:An Empirical Assessment," CEPR Discussion Paper Series, No.8010,2010.
[15]Blanchard, O. J. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," NBER Working Paper, No. 12925,2007.
[16]Blanchard, O. J. & Philippon, T. "The Quality of Labor Relations and Unemployment," MIT Department of Economics Working Paper,No.04-25,2004.
[17]Bussiere, M. etc. "Does the Euro Make a Difference? Spatio-Temporal Transmission of Global Shocks to Real Effective Exchange Rates in an Infinite VAR," ECB Working Paper No. 1292, February 3,2011.
[18]Braun, H.J. The German Economy in the Twentieth Century:the German Reich and the German Federal Republic, Routledge,1990.
[19]Branson, W. H. "The Minimum Covered Interest Differential Needed for International Arbitrage Activity," Journal of Political Economy, Vol.77(6),1969.
[20]Buti, M. & Turrini, A. "Slow but Steady? Achievements and Challenges in Competition Disinflation within the euro Area,"EC FIN Economic Brief,2012.
[21]Cline, W. R. & Williamson. J. "Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates.' Peterson Institute for International Economics, May,2011.
[22]Calmfors, L. and Driffill, J. "Bargaining Structure, Corporatism and Macroeconomic Performance." Economic Policy, Vol.6,1988.
[23]Canzoneri. M.B., Cumby, R.E. & Diba, B. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run:Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," Journal of International Economics, Vol.47,1999.
[24]Cargill, T. F. "The statistical association between central bank independence and inflation," BNL Quarterly Review, No.193,1995.
[25]Carstens, R. "Die Aufwertungsdebatte," Kieler Studien 63. IWK,1963.
[26]Carton, B. & Herve, K. "Euro area real effective exchange rate misalignments," CEPII Working paper, No 319-19, April 2012.
[27]Chang, M. Monetary integration in the European Union, Palgrave Macmillan,2009.
[28]Chinn, M. & Johnston, L. "Real exchange rate levels, productivity and demand shocks: evidence from a panel of 14 countries," NBER Working Paper, No.5709,1996.
[29]Chinn, M. & Wei, S. A Faith-based Initiative:Do We Really Know that a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Facilitates Current Account Adjustment? NBER Working Paper, No.14420,2008.
[30]Chinn, M. D. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates:Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open economies review,2006.
[31]Chou, Y. K. "The Impact of Central Bank Independence and Union Concentration on Macroeconomic Performance in the Presence of Aggregate Supply Shocks:Evidence from 10 OECD Countries (1971-85)," Working Papers Series, No 805, Department of Economics-The University of Melbourne,2001.
[32]Clarida, R. and J. Gali. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations:How Important are Nominal Schocks?" in:Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, Vol.41,1994.
[33]Closterman, J. & Schnatz, B. "The Determinants of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate?' Konjunkturpolitik, Vol.44,2000.
[34]Clift, B. French Socialism in a Global Era, Continuum International Publishing Group,2005.
[35]Cukierman, A., & Lippi, F. "Central Bank Independence, Centralization Of Wage Bargaining, Inflation and Unemployment:Theory and Some Evidence," European Economic Review, Vol. 43(7),1999.
[36]Cukierman, A., Edwards, S., & Tabellini, G. "Seignorage and Political Instability," American Economic Review, June 1992.
[37]Cukierman, A., Web, S. B., & Neyapti, B. "Measuring the independence of central banks and its effect on policy outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review 6.3,1993.
[38]Cumby, R. E., & Obstfeld, M. "A Note on Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials:A Test of the Fisher Hypothesis," The Journal of Finance, Vol.36.3,1981
[39]Cumby, R. E. & Huizinga, J. "The Predictability of Real Exchange Rate Changes in the Short and Long Run," Japan and the World Economy, Volume 3,1990.
[40]Cushman, D. O. "The effects of exchange rate risk on international trade and direct investment," PhD. Thesis of Vanderbilt University,1980.
[41]Cohen, B. J. "An Explosion in the Kitchen?:Economic Relations with Other Advanced Industrial States." in Eagle Resurgent? The Reagen Era in American Foreign Policy, Boston: Little, Brown and Company,1987.
[42]Collignon, S. "European Wage Bargaining, Social Dialogue and Imbalances in the Euro Area: A Note to the Committee on Employment and social Affairs of the European Parliament", A Note to the Committee on Employment and social Affairs of the European Parliament.18.2.2013.
[43]Collignon, S. Macroeconomic Imbalances and Comparative Advantages in the Euro Area, European Trade Union Institute, Brussels,2012.
[44]Coudert, V., etc. "On currency misalignments within the euro area"April 2012, CEPII, WP No. 2012-07.
[45]Coudert, V., etc. "Do Terms of Trade Drive Real Exchange Rates? Comparing Oil and Commodity Currencies" CEPII, No 2008-32, December,2008.
[46]Coudert, V., Couharde, C. & Mignon, V. "On currency misalignments within the euro area.' Review of International Economics, Vol.21,2013.
[47]Corry, D., Holtham. "Growth with stability:progressive macroeconomic policy." Institute for Public Policy,1995.
[48]Danninger, S. & Joutz, F. "What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share?" IMF Working Paper, WP/07/24,2007.
[49]Debelle, G. & Faruqee, H. "What Determines the Current Account? A Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Paper, No.96/58,1996.
[50]Dellas, H., & Zilberfarb, B. Z. "Real exchange rate volatility and international trade:a reexamination of the theory," Southern Economic Journal, Vol.59,1993.
[51]Deutsch Bundesbank, Annual Report,1975.
[52]Deutsche Bundesbank. Fifty years of the Deutsche Mark:Central bank and currency in Germany since 1948, Oxford University Press,1999.
[53]Devereux, Michael, B., & Engel, C. "Fixed vs. floating exchange rates:How price setting affects the optimal choice of exchange-rate regime," NBER Paper, No. w6867,1998.
[54]Dowrick, S. Wage Bargaining Systems and Productivity Growth in the OCED, Offices of EPAC, Australian Government Publishing Service, Background Paper No.26, Canberra.1993.
[55]Dullien, S. "A German Model for Europe" European Council on Foreign Relations, July 2013.
[56]Duwicquet, V., Mazier, J., & Saadaoui, J. "Exchange Rate Misalignments, Fiscal Federalism and Redistribution:How to Adjust in a Monetary Union," Conference Paper, Kiel, Germany. June. 2012.
[57]Dyson, K. Elusive Union:The Process of Economic and Monetary Union in Europe, London, longman,1994.
[58]Dyson, K., H. F., & Featherstone, K. The Road to Maastricht:Negotiating Economic and Monetaiy Union, Oxford:Oxford University Press.1999.
[59]Edwards, S. "The Determination of Equilibrium Exchange Rate," UCLA Working Paper No. 508, Sep.1988.
[60]Eichengreen, B. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," University of California-Berkeley, Prepared for the World Bank's Commission on Growth. July,2007.
[61]Ellguth, P., & Kohaut, S. "Tarifbindung und betriebliche Interessenvertretung:Aktuelle Ergebnisse." IAB-Betriebspanel 2011, WSI-Mitteilungen,4/2012.
[62]Emmanuel, M. D. A Europe Made of Money-The Emergence of the European Monetary System, Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London,2012.
[63]Engel, C., & Rogers, J. H. "Violating the law of one price:should we make a federal case out of it? "NBER Paper, No. w6867,1999.
[64]Engel, C., & Rogers, J. H., "Regional patterns in the law of one price:the roles of geography vs. currencies," NBER, No. w5395,1995.
[65]ETU Article. "Consolidated Versions of the Treaty on European Union and of the Treaty Establishing the European Community," Official Journal of the European Union.2006.
[66]European Commission. "Special Report:Competitiveness Development within the Euro Area," Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, Vol.8, No.1,2009.
[67]European Commission. "Special Issue:The Impact of the Global Crisis on Competitiveness and Current Account Divergences in the Euro Area," Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, Vol.9, No.1,2010.
[68]Facts about German foreign trade in 2011, German Ministry of Economics and Technology, business growth prosperity, March 2012.
[69]Fama, E. F.,&Gibbons, M. R. "Inflation, real returns, and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, May.1982.
[70]Faruqee, H., Isard, P., & Masson, P.R. "A Macroeconomic Balance Framework for Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates", in:MacDonald, R.&Stein, J. (eds.), Equilibrium Exchange Rates. Amsterdam:Kluter.1999.
[71]Fischer, S. "Central-bank independence revisited," American Economic Review, Vol. 85.2,1995.
[72]Fitoussi, J. P. etc. Competitive Disinflation:The Mark and Budgetary Politics in Europe, Oxford University Press,1993.
[73]Fitoussi, J. P. "Diverging Tendencies of Competitiveness," Briefing Paper N.1-Oct. European Parliament, Committee for Economic and Monetary Affairs,2006.
[74]Fischer, Wolfgang Chr., ed. German Hyperinflation 1922/23:A Law and Economics Approach, Eul-Verlag Koln,2010.
[75]Feldstein, M. S. "Weaker Euro Will Help Solve Europe Deficits Woes." Financial Times, December 19,2011.
[76]Feldstein, M. S. "The Budget Deficit and the Dollar," in Stanley Fisher (eds), NBER Macroeconomic Annual 1986, Volume 1,1986.
[77]Franzese J., Robert J., & Hall, P. "Institutional dimensions of coordinating wage-bargaining and monetary policy," Unions, Employers, and Central Banks:Macroeconomic Coordination and Institutional Change in Social Market Economies,2000.
[78]Freeman, R. B. "Labor Market Institutions and Economic Performance." Economic Policy, 1988.
[79]Frenkel, J. A., & Levich, R. M. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage:Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods," Journal of Political Economy, Vol.85(6),1977.
[80]Frenkel, R. & Taylor, L. "Real exchange rate, monetary policy, and employment:economic development in a garden of forking paths," conference Alternatives to Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy for Stable and Egalitarian Growth in Developing Countries, CEDES, Buenos Aires.2005.
[81]Fried, J., & Howitt, P. "The effects of inflation on real interest rates," The American Economic Review,1983.
[82]Friedman, M. "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates,"in Friedman's Essays in Positive Economics, Chicago:University of Chicago Press.1953.
[83]Friedman, M. "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates," in Milton Friedman, Essays in Positive Economics, Chicago:The University of Chicago Press,1953.
[84]Ghosh, A. R., Terrones, M. E., & Zettelmeyer, J. "Exchange Rate Regimes and External Adjustment:New Answers to an Old Debate." in C. Wyplosz, Ed..The New International Monetary System:Essays In Honor Of Alexander Swoboda, Routledge, March 2010.
[85]Ghura, D., & Grennes, T. J. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Vol.42(1).1993.
[86]Giavazzi, F. & Pagano, M. "The advantage of tying one's hands:EMS discipline and Central Bank credibility," European Economic Review,32.1988.
[87]Giavazzi, F. & Spaventa, L. "Why the current account may matter in a monetary union: lessons from the financial crisis in the euro area," The Euro Area and the Financial Crisis,2011.
[88]Giersch. "Economic Policy for the EC:The Way Forward," TNA, FCO30/2269,4 December 1974.
[89]Goodman, J. B. Monetary Sovereignty:The Politics of Central Banking in Western Europe, Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,1992.
[90]Gregorio, J.D. & Wolf, H.C."Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Paper, No.4807,1994.
[91]Hedblom, D. "Central Bank Independence, Centralized Wage Bargaining and Price Stability in a Monetary Policy Game", Master Thesis of Lund University,2008.
[92]Hetzel, R. L. "German monetary history in the second half of the twentieth century:from the Deutsch Mark to the Euro," FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol.88, no.2, spring 2002.
[93]Hill, C. W. L. International business:competing in the global market place, Mc GrawHill.2007.
[94]Hooper, P.&Kohlhagen, S. W. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Vol.8(4).1978.
[95]Hsieh, D. A. "The Determination of the Real Exchange Rate:The Productivity Approach,' Journal of International Economics,1982,12.
[96]Huizinga, J. "An Empirical Investigation of the Long-Run Behavior of Real Exchange Rates", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol.27,1987.
[97]IMF Report. "External Balance Assessment (EBA):Technical Background of the Pilot Methodology," August 3,2012.
[98]James I. W. European Monetary Integration & Domestic Politics:Britain, France, and Italy, Lynne Rienner Publishers.2000.
[99]Jansen, H. "Domestic gloom and export boom:a look at German competitiveness." Ecfin Country Focus, Vol.2(6),11.04.2005.
[100]Jelle Visser, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies (AIAS) University of Amsterdam, ICTWSS, Version 4-April 2013.
[101]Jeong, S., Mazier, J. & Saadaoui, J. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels:A FEER Approach."CEPN,2010.
[102]Johnson, P. A. The government of money:Monetarism in Germany and the United States, Ithaca:Cornell University Press.1998.
[103]Ju, J. & Wei, S. "Current Account Adjustment:Some New Theory and Evidence." NBER Working Paper, No.13388,2007.
[104]Kaltenthaler, K. "The Bundesbank and the Formation of the ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy" German Politics, Vol.14, No.3, September 2005.
[105]Kaelberer, M. Money and Power in Europe:The Political Economy of European Monetary Cooperation, Albany, N.Y., Sunny Press.2001.
[106]Koray, F. & Lastrapes, W. D. "Real exchange rate volatility and US bilateral trade:a VAR approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.71(4),1989.
[107]Kreicher, L. L. "Eurodollar Arbitrage," Quarterly Review, vol.7, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Summer 1982.
[108]Kydland, F. E., & Prescott, E. C. "Rules rather than discretion:The inconsistency of optimal plans," The Journal of Political Economy,1977.
[109]Konig, R. & Willeke, C. "German Monetary Unification:Domestic and External Issues" in Frowen.S. F. & Pringle,R. edited. Inside the Bundesbank, St. Martin's Press, Inc.,1998.
[110]Lane, P. R. & Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. "External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate," European Economic Review, Vol.46,2002.
[111]Lordon, F. "The Logic and Limits of Desinflation Competitive." Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Spring,1998.
[112]MacDonald, R. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates:An Overview" Discussion paper 3/200, Economic Research Group of the Deutsch Bundesbank. July 2000.
[113]MacRae, C. D. "A political model of the business cycle," The Journal of Political Economy, 1977.
[114]Maier & Haan, J. "How independent is the Bundesbank really? A survey" in Jakob de Haan edited. The History of the Bundesbank:Lessons for the ECB, Routledge,2000.
[115]Martin, T. B. etc. "The Bundesbank's Inflation Policy and Asymmetric Behavior of the German Term Structure" Review of International Economics, Volume 12, Issue 3. August 2004.
[116]Mendoza, E. G. "The terms of trade, the real exchange rate, and economic fluctuations," International Economic Review,1995.
[117]Modigliani, F., & Cohn, R."Inflation, Rational Valuation, and the Market," Financial Analysts'Journal,1979.
[118]Mudell. "A theory of optimal currency area," The American Economic Review,1961.
[119]Marshall, A. Principles of Economics, London:Macmillan,1961.
[120]Nordhaus, W. "The political business cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Vol.42,1975.
[121]OECD. "Economic performance and the structure of collective bargaining," OECD Employment Outlook,1997.
[122]Razin, O. & Collins, S. M. "Real exchange rate misalignments and growth," NBER, No. 6174,1997.
[123]Pierre, L. S. & Martin, T. B. "The Bundesbank's Communications Strategy and Policy Conflicts with the Federal Government" Southern Economic Journal, Vol.72, No.2, Oct.,2005.
[124]Report of the Study Group. "Economic and Monetary Union1980"II/675/3/74-Ecofin, Brussels,8 March,1975.
[125]Reisenbichler, A. & Morgan, K. J. "How Germany Won the Euro Crisis and Why Its Gains could be Fleeting," Foreign Affairs,20 June 2013.
[126]Richard, H. C. & Gertler, M. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy" in Romer C. D. & Romer D. H. ed. Reducing Inflation:Motivation and Strategy', University of Chicago Press, 1997.
[127]Rogoff, K. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.100,1985.
[128]Rowthorn, R. E. "Corporatism and Labour Market Performance" in Pekkarinen, J., Pohjola, M. & R. Rowthorn (eds.), Social Corporatism:A Superior Economic System, Clarendon Press, Oxford,1992.
[129]Rose, A. "Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance. Some Evidence from Developing Countries," Economics Letters, Vol.34.1990.
[130]Proutat, J. L. "euro dollar what does ppp say?" 8th February 2013, available at: http://c3352932.r32. cf0. rackcdn. com/pdf0ad8901 cf436a 7e663b9ee1e263d53a2.pdf Last accessed at 1st Dec.2013.
[131]Summers, L. H. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates:A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Paper, No.836,1982.
[132]Schmitz, Birgit, & Hagen, J. "Current Account Imbalances and Financial Integration in the Euro Area." CEPR Discussion Paper, No.7262,2009.
[133]Shabsigh, G., & Domac. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth-Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia," International Monetary Fund,1999.
[134]Shalishali, M. K. "A Test of the International Fisher Effect in Selected Asian Countries,' International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, Vol.2 No.4,2012.
[135]Shiller R. J. "Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models:A critical review," Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.4(1),1978.
[136]Sinn, H. W. "Austerity, Growth and Inflation. Remarks on the Euro Area's unresolved Competitiveness Problems," CESifo Working Paper No.4086, January,2013.
[137]Soskice,D. & Iversen, T. "Multiple wage-bargaining systems in the single European currency area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy,1998.
[138]Stahn, K. "Has the impact of key determinants of German exports changed? Results from estimations of Germany's intra euro-area and extra euro-area exports," Deutsche Bundesbank, Discussion Paper, Economic Studies, No 07/2006.
[139]Thorbecke, W., & KATO, A. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Germany's Exports,' RIETI Discussion Paper Series,12-E-08,2012.
[140]Tietmeyer H. "The Bundesbank:Committed to Stability" Inside the Bundesbank,1998. Trichet, J.C. "Dix ans de desinflation competitive en France," Notes Bleues de Bercy 16-31, Octobre,1992.
[141]Turroni, O.B. Economics of Inflation:A Study of Currency Depreciation in Post-War Germany, Ludwig von Mises Institute, John Dickens & CO., LTD, Northampton,2007.
[142]Utami, S. R., & Inanga, E. L. "Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Inflation Rates in Indonesia, the International Fisher Effect Theory," International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol.26,2009.
[143]Verzeichnis der fur allgemeinverbindlich erklarten Tarifvertrage Stand:1. Bundesministerium fur Arbeit und Soziales, Oktober 2013.
[144]Verdun, A. "The Uncertain Future of the Euro," in Zimmermann, H. & Dur, A. ed. Key Controversies in European Integration, Palgrave Macmillan,2012.
[145]Wahlig, B. "Bundesbank and Federal Government Relations" in Stephen F. Frowen and Robert Pringle edited. Inside the Bundesbank, St. Martin's Press, Inc.,1998.
[146]Willms, M. "The Monetary Policy Decision Process in the Federal Republic of Germany," in The Political Economy of Monetary Policy:National and International Aspects, Conference, Series No.26, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, July 1983.
[147]Yellen, J. L. "Revolution and Evolution in Central Bank Communications," Remarks at University of California, Berkeley, Nov.13,2012.
[148]Zhang, Zhichao. "Real exchange rate misalignment in China:An empirical investigation,' Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol.29 (1),2001.
[149]Individual income tax for employees in Germany, http://www.expatica.com/de/finance business/tax/Individual-incoine-tax-for-emplovees-in-Genna nv-18488.html. last accessed on 17th Sep.2013.
[150]Statistisches Bundesamt, Rangfolge der Handelspartner im AuBenhandel der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Wiesbaden 2013, available at: https://www.destatis.d e/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/Aussenhand el/Handelspartner /Tabellen/RangfolgeHandelspartner.pdf? blob=publicationFile Last accessed at 8th Dec.2013.
[151]Euro Area (Eurozone) Terms of Trade of Goods (Percent Change) Statistics, Available at: http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/Euro-Area/Terms Trade Goods Percent Cha nge/last accessed at 31/10/2013.
[152]REER Data.Available at:http://www.bis.org/statistics/eer/last accessed at 1/11/2014
[153]Destatis. "Statistisches Bundesamt. Gesamtentwicklung des deutschen AuBenhandels ab 1950." Wiesbaden 2013.Available at: https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/Aussenhandel/Gesamtentwic klung/Tabellen/GesamtentwicklungAussenhandel.pdf? blob=publicationFile Last accessed on 8th Jan.2014.
[154]Data of Export and import prices of manufactured goods, http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/daily_update_e/monthly_xm_manuf_price_e.xls,last accessed at 1/11/2013.
2 J. P. Fitoussi etc. Competitive Disinflation:The Mark and Budgetary Politics In Europe, Oxford University Press, 1993:2.
1 Nordhaus, W. "The political business cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Vol.42.,1975:169-190.
2 MacRae, C. D. "A political model of the business cycle," The Journal of Political Economy,1977:239-263.
3 Willms, M. "The Monetary Policy Decision Process in the Federal Repubhc of Germany," in Donald R. Hodgman, ed., "The Political Economy of Monetary Policy:National and International Aspects," Conference, Series No.26. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Julv 1983:34-64.
4 Shiller, R. J. Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models:A critical review. Journal of Monetary Economics,1978,4(1):1-44.
1 Kydland, F. E., & Prescott, E. C. "Rules rather than discretion:The inconsistency of optimal plans," The Journal of Political Economy,1977:473-491.
2 Fischer, S. "Central-bank Independence Revisited," American Economic Review Vol.85.2,1995:201-206.
3 相关表述引自：范方志：中央银行独立性.理论与实践[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2007.
4 Rogoff, K. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," Quarterly Journal of Economics. Vol.100.1985:1169-1190.
5 Alesina, A., & Summers, L.H. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance:Some Comparative Evidence," lournal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol.25(2), May,1993:151-162.
1 Cukierman, A. Edwards, S. & Tabellini, G. "Seignorage and Political Instability," American Economic Review, June 1992:537-55.
2 Cukierman, A., Web, S. B. & Neyapti, B. "Measuring the independence of central banks and its effect on policy outcomes." The World Bank Economic Review.1992:353-398.
Cargill, T. F. "The statistical association between central bank independence and inflation," BNL Quarterly Review, No.193,1995.
4 劳伦斯S.科普兰.汇率与国际金融[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2011：36.
5 Friedman, M. "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates" In Essays in Positive Economics,157-203. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.1953.
6 Marshall, A. Principles of Economics. London:Macmillan,1961.
7 Engel, C., & Rogers, J. H., "Regional patterns in the law of one price:the roles of geography vs. currencies," NBER, No. w5395,1995.
1 Devereux, Michael B., and Charles Engel. "Fixed vs. floating exchange rates:How price setting affects the optimal choice of exchange-rate regime." No. w6867. National Bureau of Economic Research,1998.
2 Charles Engel, and John H. Rogers." Violating the law of one price:should we make a federal case out of it?.
'No. w7242. National Bureau of Economic Research,1999.
" Balassa, B. "The purchasing-power parity doctrine:a reappraisal," The Journal of Political Economy, Vol.72.6, 1964:584.
4 胡岖.中国各地区间一价定律研究[D].复旦大学,2010.
5 韩胜飞,戴金平.国际商品市场中“一价定律”的验证：共同概率模型和动态贸易变量[J].南开经济研究,2006年第2期。
1 Branson, W. H. "The Minimum Covered Interest Differential Needed for International Arbitrage Activity," Journal of Political Economy, Vol.77(6),1969:1028-1035.
2 Frenkel, J. A., & Levich, R. M. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage:Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods,' Journal of Political Economy, Vol.85(6),1977:1209-1226.
1 Kreicher, L. L. "Eurodollar Arbitrage," Quarterly Review, vol.7, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Summer 1982. Available at:http://www.nber.org/papcrs/w1187.pdf?new window=1last accessed at 26th Feb.2014.
2 曹志鹏.利率平价理论在中国的实证检验：2006—2008[D].山东大学博士论文,2008：19.
3 同上.
4 Cumby, R. E., & Obstfeld, M. "A Note on Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials:A Test of the Fisher Hypothesis," The Journal of Finance, Vol.36.3,1981:697-703. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0537.pdf last accesswed at 26th Feb.2014.
5 Hill, C. W. L. International business:competing in the global market place, Mc GrawHill.2007.
6 Fama, E. F., & Gibbons, M. R. "Inflation, real returns, and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, May.1982:297-327.
7 Huizinga, J. & Mishkin, F. S. "Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates," NBER WORKING PAPER, No.1678,1982. Available at:http://www.nber.org/papers/wl 678,pdf?new window=1
1 Utami, S. R., & Inanga, E. L. "Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Inflation Rates in Indonesia, the Internationa] Fisher Effect Theory," International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol.26,2009.
2 Shalishali, M. K. "A Test of the International Fisher Effect in Selected Asian Countries," International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, Vol.2, No.4,2012.
3 Modigliani, F., & Cohn, R."Inflation, Rational Valuation, and the Market," Financial Analysts'Journal,1979.
4 Tanzi, V. "Inflationary expectations, economic activity, taxes, and interest rates," The American Economic Review,1980:12-21.
5 Summers, L. H. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates:A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Paper, No.836,1982. Available at:http://www.nber.org/papers/w0836.pdf?new window-1
6 Fried, J., & Howitt, P. "The effects of inflation on real interest rates," The American Economic Review,1983: 968-980. Available at:https://notendur.hi.is/～ajonsson/kennsla2005/fried.pdf
1 大卫.李嘉图(1817)在《政治经济学及赋税原理》中将一国经济分为以农业为代表的“母国部门”,和以工业为代表的“制造部门”,受到自由市场竞争的影响,后者生产效率的增长明显高于前者。巴萨理论继承了李嘉图的两部门经济的划分思想,并认为贸易部门的生产率要高于非贸易部门。相关内容整理自：吴凌.巴拉萨--萨缪尔森效应在中国的检验[D].上海社会科学院,2008：7.
2 王凯.人民币实际汇率研究[M].西北工业大学出版社,2012：74.
1 Gregorio, J.D. & Wolf, H.C. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Paper, No.4807,1994.
2 Canzoneri. M.B., Cumby, R.E. & Diba, B. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run:Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries." Journal of International Economics. Vol.47,1999:245-266.
3 Hsieh, D. A. The Determination of the Real Exchange Rate:The Productivity Approach. Journal of International Economics,1982, (12):55-362.
1 Cushman, D. O. "The effects of exchange rate risk on international trade and direct investment," PhD. Thesis of Vanderbilt University,1980.
Koray, F. & Lastrapes, W. D. "Real exchange rate volatility and US bilateral trade:a VAR approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.71(4),1989:708-12.
3 Mendoza, E. G. "The terms of trade, the real exchange rate, and economic fluctuations," International Economic Review,1995:101-137.
4 Gregorio, J.D. & Wolf, H.C. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Paper, No.4807,1994. Available at:http://www.nber.org/papers/w4807.pdf?new window=1, last accessed on 28th Feb. 2014.
5 Chinn, M., & Johnston, L. "Real exchange rate levels, productivity and demand shocks:evidence from a panel of 14 countries," NBER Working Paper, No.5709,1996. Available at:http://www.nber.org/papers/w5709.pdf?new window=1 lassed accessed on 28th Feb.2014.
1 Razin, O. & Collins, S. M. "Real exchange rate misalignments and growth," NBER, No.6174,1997.
2 Eichengreen, B. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," University of California, Berkeley, Prepared for the World Bank's Commission on Growth. July,2007.
3 Lane, P. R. & Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. "External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate,' European Economic Review,Vol.46,2002:1049-1071.
Frenkel, R. & Taylor, L. "Real exchange rate, monetary policy, and employment:economic development in a garden of forking paths," conference Alternatives to Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy for Stable and Egalitarian Growth in Developing Countries, CEDES, Buenos Aires.2005.
5 Ghura, D., & Grennes, T. J. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Vol.42(1).1993:155-174.
Zhang, Zhichao. "Real exchange rate misalignment in China:An empirical investigation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol.29 (1),2001:80-94.
7 张琳,廉永辉.实际汇率、产业结构和城乡收入差距[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(12).
8 巴曙松,王群.人民币实际有效汇率对我国产业、就业结构影响的实证分析[J].财经理论与实践,2009(3).
Driver, R.L., & Westaway, P.F. "Concepts of equilibrium real exchange rates," Working Paper, Bank of England, 2001.
1 姜波克等.经济增长中均衡汇率的实现与作用[J].国际金融研究,2004,(12).
2 Edwards, S. "The Determination of Equilibrium Exchange Rate," UCLA Working Paper No.508, Sep.1988. Available at:http://www.econ.ucla.edu/workingpapers/wp508.pdfaccessed on 28th Feb.2014.
1 赵登峰.人民币市场均衡汇率与实际汇率研究[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社.2005.
2 刘阳.均衡汇率与人民币汇率机制研究[M].成都：西南财经大学出版社,2006.
3 许少强,马丹和宋赵晗.人民币实际汇率研究[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2006.
4 许罕多.人民币实际有效汇率错位研究[J].当代经济研究,2011.7.
5 Wadhwani, S. "Currency Puzzles," mimeo. Bank of England,1999.
6 Closterman. J. and B. Schnatz, "The Determinants of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate?" in:Konjunkturpolitik, Vol.44,2000:207-230.
7 Ghura, D.,&Grennes, T. J. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Vol.42,1993:155-74.
s Shabsigh, G., & Domac. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth-Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia," International Monetary Fund,1999.
9 Chinn, M. D. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates:Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open economies review.2006:115-143.
10 Hooper, P.&Kohlhagen, S. W. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Vol.8(4).1978:483-511.
11 Dellas, H., & Zilberfarb, B. Z. "Real exchange rate volatility and international trade:a reexamination of the theory," Southern Economic Journal, Vol.59,1993:641-641.
12 Baldwin, R., & Krugman, P. "Persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.104(4),1989:635-654.
1 Ronald MacDonald. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates:An Overview," Discussion paper 3/200, Economic Research Group of the Deutsch Bundesbank. July 2000.
1 Huizinga. J., "An Empirical Investigation of the Long-Run Behavior of Real Exchange Rates'", in: Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol.27,1987:149-214.
2 Robert, E., &, Huizinga, J. "The Predictability of Real Exchange Rate Changes in the Short and Long Run"" NBER Working Paper No.3468.
3 Clarida, R. and J. Gali, "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations:How Important are Nominal Schocks?" in: Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, Vol.41,1994:1-56.
1 Enrique Alberola, Susana G. Cervero, Humberto Lopez, and Angel Ubide" Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "ins," "outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework" IMF working paper no.99/175, November 1999.
2 Ronald MacDonald. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates:An Overview" Discussion paper 3/200, Economic Research Group of the Deutsch Bundesbank. July 2000.
3 Faruqee, Isard, H.P., & Masson, P. R. "A Macroeconomic Balance Framework for Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," in:R. MacDonald and J. Stein (eds.), Equilibrium Exchange Rates, Amsterdam:Kluter.1999.
4 External Balance Assessment (EBA):Technical Background of the Pilot Methodology," IMF Report, August 3, 2012.
1 张明.IMF评估汇率失衡的新方法EBA述评[J].经济学动态,2012.7.
1 推导过程参考：方齐云,方臻旻.国际经济学[M1.东北财经大学出版社.2009：216-217.
1 杨立.国际货币经济学[M].上海：上海外国语大学出版社.2008：154-170.
1 Deutsche Bundesbank.Fifty years of the Deutsche Mark:Central bank and currency in Germany since 1948, Oxford University Press.1999.
2 Martin T. Bohl al etc. "The Bundesbank's Inflation Policy and Asymmetric Behavior of the German Term Structure" Review of International Economics, Volume 12, Issue 3, August 2004:495-508.
1 Fischer, Wolfgang Chr., ed. German Hyperinflation 1922/23:A Law and Economics Approach. Eul-Verlag Koln, 2010:84.
2 为稳定“地租马克”,1923年10月25日帝国银行对德国境内所有的交易所设定统一的外汇交易汇率,当时仅根据粗略的估算,按照4.2万亿“纸币马克”兑换1美元进行交易。受其影响,1923年12月市场定价也比较接近官方的汇率标准。然而由于考虑到商业活动的影响,帝国银行在贷款控制方面较为宽松,市场上新增贷款较快,截止1923年11月30日,共向市场投放3.64亿金马克,随后的连续几个月月末分别达到6万亿、11.02万亿、14.82万亿,1924年3月底增长到19.15万亿。同时由于固定的汇率平价,外汇市 场上外汇需求旺盛,马克出现贬值的势头。1924年4月7日,帝国银行声明紧缩信贷,这一政策产生良好的影响,到当年6月3日,帝国银行便可以完全满足外汇市场上的外汇需求。
1 最早在1923年德国经历历史最严重的通货膨胀时,当时的德国政府就着手推动央行的管理和立法,最终于1924年出台《银行法案》。此外,德国还推动制订《1925价值评估法案》作为汇率价格确定的依据,Gesetz iiber die Aufwertung von Hypotheken und anderen Anspruchen or Aufwertungsgesetze, a.k.a. the Revaluation Act 1925.
Ostantino Bresciani-Turroni "Economics of Inflation:A Study of Currency Depreciation in Post-War Germany" Ludwig von Mises Institute, JohnDickens&CO LTD, Northampton,2007:334-358.
Peter Henning Loedel. Deutsche Mark Politics, Boulder London:Lynne Rienner Publishers,1999:55.
1 Robert L. Hetzel "German monetary history in the second half of the twentieth century:from the Deutsch Mark to the Euro", FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol.88, no.2, Spring 2002:41-45.
2 唐欣语.从怀特计划、凯恩斯计划到<国际货币基金组织协定>[J].银行家,2010.3.
1 Bank Deutscher Lander也有翻译为“多邦银行”,本文统一称为“各邦银行”。
1 事实上,随后不久州银行权力还是受到诸多限制,各邦银行(后来的联邦央行)仍占主导地位。
2 Hetzel, R. L. "German monetary history in the second half of the twentieth century:from the Deutsch Mark to the Euro", FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol.88, no.2, Spring 2002:29-64.
1 晏小宝：战后联邦德国的货币改革和货币管理[J].世界经济研究,1985.06.
2 Deutsche Bundesbank. Fifty years of the Deutsche Mark:Central bank and currency in Germany since 1948, Oxford University Press,1999:92-95.
3 Ibid.
1 Ibid.
2 Hetzel, R. L. "German monetary history in the second half of the twentieth century:from the Deutsch Mark to the Euro," FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol.88, no.2, Spring 2002:pp.29-64.
3 全材"Grundgesetz fur die Bundesrepublik Deutschland"
1 后来随着EMU谈判的深入,“联合阵线”内出现分化,执委会成员更倾向于国际化导向的货币政策,而来自联邦州的成员则更倾向于国内导向的货币政策。
2 Konig, R., & Willeke, C. "German Monetary Unification:Domestic and External Issues" in Stephen F. Frowen and Robert Pringle edited. Inside the Bundesbank, St. Martin's Press, Inc.,1998:21-31.
1 也考虑到实际接受情况,对部分申请者也可以设定2000、3000或6000不等的额度,按照1：1比率兑换,总平均而言,负债和资产部分的兑换比率为1：1.8。
2 Konig, R., & Willeke, C. "German Monetary Unification:Domestic and External Issues" in Stephen F. Frowen and Robert Pringle (Eds), Inside the Bundesbank, St. Martin's Press, Inc.,1998:21-31.
1 相关条文1 Die Deutsche Bundesbank...mit dem Ziel, die Wahrung zu sichern, und sorgt fur die bankmaβige Abwicklung des Zahlungsverkehrs im Inland und mit dem Ausland."
2 Peter Henning Loedel "Deutsche Mark Politics", Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London,1999:47.
1 Maier & Haan, J. "How independent is the Bundesbank really? A survey" in Jakob de Haan (eds). The History of the Bundesbank:Lessons for the ECB, Routledge,2000.
1 Deutsch Bundesbank, Annual Report,1975.
1 Berger, H. "The Bundesbank's Path to Independence:Evidence from the 1950s,'" Public Choice, Volume 93, Issue 3-4. Dec.1997:427-453.
Johnson, Peter A. The government of money:Monetarism in Germany and the United States. Ithaca:Cornell University Press.1998.
3 德国黄金储备资产的估算按照黄金购入时的价格或者价格下跌时的市场价格计算,而当价格一直上涨时,联邦银行却很少考虑估算黄金资产的现值。德国这种较低价规则(Niederstwertprinzip)使得德国黄金储备的低估明显超过其他EMS成员国,其他欧洲国家中仅有瑞士略低于德国的估算水平。德国的主要黄金储备购于六十年代,当时价格为35美元／盎司,1997年时德国央行黄金储备账户上仍然按照125马克／盎司的价格计价,而对应的市场价格已经达到588马克／盎司,因此,1997年德国黄金储备以市价计算可折合为559亿马克,但在央行帐户中仅有137马克。因此,如果重新按照市场现值估算黄金储备,必然会出现较大的账面盈余,联邦政府作为德国央行最大的股东在出现债务赤字时,自然想到通过黄金储备增值部分差额弥补赤字。内容参见：Mark Duckenfield. "The GoldKrieg:Revaluing the Bundesbank's reserves and the Politics of EMU" Program for the study of Germany and Europe Working Paper Series 8.6, Harvard University, Sep.1998.
1 1977年卡特政府财政部长布鲁梅萨(Michael Blumeuthal)以日本和前联邦德国的贸易顺差为理由,开始对马克和日元施压,希望通过美元贬值减少美国的贸易逆差。之后美国与日德等国通过“广场协议”和“卢浮宫协议”推动马克和日元升值。
2 日本国内的零售物价水平尽管没有出现较大涨幅,但对日元投机的预期催生资产类商品泡沫的上升,与此同时,日本央行继续维持低利率,一方面遵守卢浮宫协议,另一方面减轻资本流入的影响。
3 刘涛：日本、德国应对本币升值的货币政策比较及启示：基于广场协议的分析[J].中国债券.2011.10.
1 不考虑上世纪九十年代后的日本,由于经济增长长期陷入低迷,通胀甚至为负。
2 http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/cpi-inflation.aspx
1 Loedel, P. H. "Deutsche Mark Politics", Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London,1999:p11.
1 《德国基本法》是德国宪法,Grundgesetz fur die Bundesrepublik Deutschland.
2 相关内容参考《联邦银行法(1957)》 Gesetz uber die Deutsche Bundesbank von 1957. 3 Fifty years of the Deutsche Mark:Central Bank and the currency in Germany since 1948, Oxford University Press,1999:141-159.
4 德国联邦法院由联邦宪法法院、联邦普通法院和联邦专门法院组成。
5 Loedel, P. H. Deutsche Mark Politics, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London,1999:11.
1 Hans Tietmeyer,1998:pp.1-10.
2 全称"Gesetz zur Forderung der Stabilitat und des Wachstums der Wirtschaft"
3 《固定汇率时期的货币政策(1948-1970)》收录于《德国马克与德国经济增长》北京：社会科学文献出版社,2012：253.
1 当时财政部长穆勒(Alex Moller)和后来的席勒在政策削减方面都难以取得突破,但政府的态度和央行保持一致。
Loedel, P.H. Deutsche Mark Politics, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London,1999:14.
3 周弘等《德国马克与德国经济增长》北京：社会科学文献出版社,2012：128.
4 《固定汇率时期的货币政策(1948-1970)》收录于《德国马克与德国经济增长》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2012年3月。
1 Deutsche Bundesbank. Fifty years of the Deutsche Mark:Central bank and currency in Germany since 1948, Oxford University Press,1999:313-315.
2 Juliusturm是位于德国柏林的一处塔楼建筑,1870/1871德法战争期间,法国对德国的战争赔款一直存放与此,一直到1914年才被使用,后被比喻为财政盈余基金。
Braun, H.J. The German Economy in the Twentieth Century:the German Reich and the German Federal Republic, Routledge,1990.
Deutsche Bundesbank "Fifty years of the Deutsche Mark:Central bank and currency in Germany since 1948," Oxford University Press,1999:369-371.
5 此举有可能造成货币供应的增加,进而威胁德国国内物价稳定。为此德国央行提出例外条款,亦即在德国货币价值稳定遭受威胁时,德国央行有权终止汇率干预相关义务。然而,需要指出的是,对于国内物价是否遭到威胁的判决权在德国政府。通常情况下,央行认为货币政策出现协调困难时,央行将相关问题请
1 Dyson, K. Elusive Union:The Process of Economic and Monetary Union in Europe, London:Longman,1994.转引自Chang, M. Monetary integration in the European Union, Palgrave Macmillan,2009:38.
2 冯肇伯.西德马克40年：经验.启示.借鉴[J].经济学家,1989年01期.
3 [法]米歇尔·阿格利埃塔(车艳秋,房广顺译)：新的增长机制的诞生——对罗伯特·布伦纳危机理论的反驳[J].国外理论动态,2009.5.
4 J. P. Fitoussi etc. Competitive Disinflation:The Mark and Budgetary Politics In Europe, Oxford University Press, 1993:2.
1 Clift, B. French Socialism in a Global Era. Continuum International Publishing Group,2005:143-148.
1 Lordon, F. "The Logic and Limits of Desinflation Competitive", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Spring, 1998:96-113.
2 Artus, P. "From a successful'competitive devaluation/disinflation'to a successful'competitive reduction in wage cost'?" NATIXIS Research Paper, November 23,2012-No.791.
1 程恩富.新自由主义的起源、发展及其影响[J].求是,2005.3.
2 蒋自强,石晋川.当代西方经济学流派[M].复旦大学出版社,2011：150-161.
1 艾哈德.来自竞争的繁荣[M].商务印书馆1983年版：P.81.
2 蒋自强,石晋川.当代西方经济学流派[M].复旦大学出版社,2011：150-161.
1 蒋自强,石晋川.当代西方经济学流派[M].复旦大学出版社,2011：150-161.
2 Lordon, F. "The Logic and Limits of Desinflation Competitive," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Spring 1998:96-113.
1 J. P. Fitoussi etc. Competitive Disinflation:The Mark and Budgetary Politics in Europe, Oxford University Press, 1993:2.
1 J. P. Fitoussi. "Diverging Tendencies of Competitiveness'" Briefing Paper N.1-Oct.2006, European Parliament, Committee for Economic and Monetary Affairs.
2 卢森堡法郎(Luxembourg Franc) 、比利时法郎(Belgian Franc)荷兰盾(Dutch Guilder)和丹麦克朗(Danish Krone)采用盯住马克的货币政策,实际上也是缩减版的“蛇形浮动”。在后来新的“蛇形浮动”(ERM)谈判重新开启时,实际上主要争论围绕留在“蛇形浮动”体制内的国家和离开的国家之间,前者主要指马克区,后者主要以法国和意大利等国为代表。
3 德国政府从出口角度认为汇率波动对出口产业存在较大冲击,而德国央行则从输入型通胀角度认为马克的升值会导致更多的外来资本流入使得央行推行的货币供应量目标失效。
1 1971年布雷顿森林体系的解体,史密森协定(Smithsonian Agreement)规定欧洲主要货币与美元之间的浮动幅度扩大到±2.25%,最高可能产生9%的汇率差。以设定的中心汇率为基准,若相关国家A对美元的中心汇率浮动上浮2.25%,美元对A国中心汇率下浮2.25%,则A国币值升值4.5%;国家B对美元中心汇率下浮2.25%,美元对与B国中心汇率上浮2.25%,则B国相对于美元贬值4.5%。因此,通过汇率传递效应可计算得到,A国货币对B国货币升值9%,蛇形浮动就是要避免这种叠加的汇率冲击。
2 Loedel, P. H. Deutsche Mark Politics, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London,1999:12.
3 建立欧洲货币联盟的设想最早源于魏纳报告(Werner Report),该报告由原卢森堡首相兼财政大臣Werner于1970年提出,该计划建议在欧共体内分阶段推动货币联盟的建立。随着布雷顿森林体系的解体,在德国等主要成员国的推动下,这一计划成了欧洲货币体系(EMS)的雏形。
4 需要指出的是,货币单位并非欧洲首创,公元前六世纪,小亚细亚地区就出现用3/4黄金和1/4白银铸造金银合金货币的情形。但欧洲创立的货币单位,欧洲复合货币计算单位(European Composite Unit (Euroco))作为EUA和ECA的初始形态,在布雷顿森林体系解体后成了诸多地区和国际组织建立货币单位的重要参照模式,于1974年6月被应用于国际货币基金组织的特别提款权(SDR),1974年11月用于阿拉伯通货关连单位Arab Currency Related Unit(ARCRU)、1974年12月亚洲货币单位,已及后来的欧洲货币单位ECU。
1 从1950年后,欧洲货币计价单位的概念就逐步形成,广泛应用于欧洲煤钢共同体、欧洲农业政策、社会发展基金、欧洲投资银行、欧洲统计局的价格计量,参见：The units of account as a factor of integration, Economy and Finance, Information Directorate-General, Commission of the European Communities,87/75.
2 英国后来加入欧洲货币体制,由于英镑的特殊地位,其被允许更大的波动幅度。
3 但实际上鉴于马克的国际影响力和在欧洲货币体系中的主导作用,其他EMS成员国家采取了直接盯住马克的和汇率制度,一旦双边汇率出现较大偏离,成员国央行便进行市场干预。
4 Hetzel, R. L."German monetary history in the second half of the twentieth century:from the Deutsch Mark to the Euro," FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol.88, no.2, Spring 2002:50.
5 Regulation (EEC) No 907/73 of the Council, Establishing a European Monetary Cooperation Fund,3 April 1973.
1 Wahlig, B. "Bundesbank and Federal Government Relations" in Stephen F. Frowen and Robert Pringle (Eds). Inside the Bundesbank, St. Martin s Press, Inc.,1998:52-55.
2 Peter Henning Loedel, Deutsche Mark Politics, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London,1999.
1 Kaltenthaler, K. "Bundesbank and the Formation of the ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy," German Politics, Vol.14, No.3, September 2005:297-314.
1 "Bundesbank verteidigt Autonomie durch Kompromiss," Suddeutsche Zeitung, September 14,1987.转引自：Loedel, P.H. Deutsche Mark Politics, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London,1999:81.
2 该项目由斯特劳斯-卡恩(Strauss-Kahn)和时任法国央行行长的特里谢(Trichet)负责,本文后续章节对法国“有竞争力的通缩”的政策实践亦有概述。
1 全称European Monetary Institute,后来成为欧洲央行(ECB)的前身。
2 intra-marginal intervention比之前的at the margins的不同点在于前者在汇率达到上下边界之前就开始干预,通过事先准备给政策实施留有空间。
3 也称为Delors Report,中文翻译为“德洛尔报告”,该计划分三步实现货币联盟,其中包括通过则政的重新分配,达到地区的发展平衡。比如提高发展基金、结构基金和其它社会基金的支出比例,相应减少共同农业政策的基金份额。
1 数据转引自Chang, M. Monetary integration in the European Union, Palgrave Macmillan,2009:32.
1 Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol. "A Europe Made of Money-The Emergence of the European Monetary System, " Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London,2012:30-56.
2 Goodman, J. B. Monetary Sovereignty:The Politics of Central Banking in Western Europe. Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,1992:73.
3 斯密特所坚守的维护物价稳定的货币主义理念并非一帆风顺,在德国国内甚至遭到其所在社民党(SPD)内左派势力的干涉,后者认为政府还是应该更多的考虑凯恩斯主义理念。
4 Dyson, Kenneth, & Featherstone, K.. The Road to Maastricht:Negotiating Economic and Monetary Union. Oxford:Oxford University Press,1999:747-752.
5 袁志刚,欧阳明.宏观经济学[M].格致出版社,2003.10：17.
1 Mitterand上台之后有违当初竞选中关于货币主义和自由主义的承诺,转而通过大规模的国家干预刺激经济,这也有着深刻的社会和经济根源,当时法国国有经济占据总经济规模的1/4,其他经济体大多受到政策补贴和贸易保护,与此同时,法国对资本流动采取严格管控的措施,这些经济结构特征与欧洲一体化发展、EMS汇率体制稳定的要求背道而驰。
2 Giavazzi, F., & Pagano, M. "The advantage of tying one's hands:EMS discipline and Central Bank credibility,' European Economic Review,1988:1055-1075.
1 法国的政策建议主要由‘"Fourcade Memoradum"所体现,主要包括如下四方面内容：(1)欧共体贷款；(2)共同货币计价单位；(3)欧共体内汇率协调和适应机制；(4)欧洲市场内其他政策的协调。这种类似后来欧洲货币共同体的设想之所以遭到其他成员国的反对,主要原因在于大多数成员国认为该项目有些操之过急。比如德国总理Schmidt认为欧洲国家之间巨大的经济差异使得货币共同体很难推行。(Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol:45.)
2 1978年12月4日-5日,欧共体理事会提出最终通过EMS的方案,并决定与1979年1月1日生效,但当时欧共体9各成员中仅有6个成员同意,英国直接反对,意大利和爱尔兰暂未作决定。后来法国通过外交压力,在欧共体内拒绝增加地区发展基金(Regional Development Fund)规模,拒绝向这两个国家提供资源援助。这种情况下,意大利和爱尔兰被迫做出让步,分别于10天内同意加入欧洲货币体系,当然这两个国家自身计入EMS的意愿也是决定性因素。(Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol:p.255.)
3 TNA, FCO30/2269, Giersch, "Economic Policy for the EC:The Way Forward," 4 December 1974.
1 Report of the Study Group "Economic and Monetary Union 1980" II/675/3/74-Ecofin, Brussels,8 March 1975.
2 《马约》的制订受到德国央行较多的影响,德国央行作为政策咨询机构最早在1990年9月份的备忘录中提及“鉴于货币体系内国家之间的相互关联及影响,为保证货币稳定,有必要对成员国经济、财政和劳动力市场做出规定。”随后一个更为详细的方案出台,强调物价稳定,对加入国家尽可能采取较为严格全面的程序要求。此外,德国央行在布鲁塞尔和巴塞尔的工作人员参与了《马约》条款的撰写。甚至后来欧洲央行(ECB)的章程也主要由位于巴塞尔的欧洲央行分支机构负责撰写,该章程在后来的政府间讨论中并没有被实质性的更改。(Hans Tietmeyer,1998:1-10)
3 Tietmeyer H. "The Bundesbank:Committed to Stability." Inside the Bundesbank,1998:1-10.
4 Pierre, L. S. & Martin, T. B. "The Bundesbank's Communications Strategy and Policy Conflicts with the Federal Government" Southern Economic Journal. Vol.72. No.2. Oct..2005.
5 Richard H. Clarida, Mark Gertler "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy" in Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer edited, Reducing Inflation:Motivation and Strategy,University of Chicago Press, January 1997 http://www.nber.org/chapters/c8890
6 Kaltenthaler, K. "The Bundesbank and the Formation of the ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy," German Politics,
1 欧洲货币体系(ESCB)包括ECB和欧盟成员国央行(包括非欧元区成员国央行)。
2 Article 108, the Maastricht Treaty.
3 Apel, E. Central Banking Systems Compared:the ECB, the Pre-euro Bundesbank, and the Federal Reserve System, Routledge,2003.
1 Apel, E. Central Banking Systems Compared:the ECB. the Pre-euro Bundesbank, and the Federal Reserve System, Routledge,2003.
2 也称"two pillars",该体系从供应量角度包括M3的增长目标,从通胀目标方面,充分考虑产出缺口、失业率等宏观经济因素。(Emmaauel Apel,2003:65)
3 政府若不同意央行的货币政策,其可以拖延至多两周执行新的政策,然而政策实践中政府从未运用过。
4 考虑到当前和未来的经济变量,确定货币政策,考虑的因素较德国央行更为复杂。
5 部分国际组织中,比如在IMF和GAB(借款总安排)内,限于欧盟的非主权国家特征,ECB仅具有观察员身份,而在其他组织,比如G20. OECD内都具有正式代表性。
1 货币政策独立性三个维度是基于本文的分析框架,前文在分析德国央行独立性时也采用了这一分析体系。也有学者从更多的维度和不同的角度分析央行的独立性。
2 Chang, M. Monetary integration in the European Union, Palgrave Macmillan,2009:78.
1 何慧刚.利率汇率传导机制研究：理论模型及实证检验[JJ.湖北经济学院学报,2007年3月.
1 陈岚等.德国利率市场化：全能银行之幸[R].国泰君安研究报告,2013.03.08.
1 商务部调研报告：德国国际直接投资流动趋势和格局[R],2010-12-16,参考商务部网站：http//www.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/weihurenyuan/a/201012/20101207309780.html,访问日期2014-1-7.
1 Franz Seitz. "Der DM-Umlauf im Ausland", Diskussionspapier 1/95, Deutsche Bundesbank, Mai.1995:54,转引自：赵柯.德国马克的崛起——货币国际化政治经济学分析[D].中国社会科学院研究生院,2013.6.
2 Coudert, V., Couharde, C., & Mignon, V. "On currency misalignments within the euro area," April 2012, CEPII, Working Paper,012-07.
1 Se-Eun Jeong, Jacques Mazier, Jamel Saadaoui:Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels:A FEER Approach, CEPN, No.2010-03.
2 CEPII, "Euro area real effective exchange rate misalignments," CEPII Working Paper, No 319-19, April 2012.
1 Dullien, S. "A German Model for Europe," European Council on Foreign Relations, July 2013.
1 Feldstein, M. "Weaker Euro Will Help Solve Europe Deficits Woes," Financial Times, December 19,2011.
3 本文所认为的工资协商体制,是指在德国央行参与下,通过释放稳定货币政策信号对工资谈判产生的最终影响,本文后续章节将对此进行专门论述。相比之下,传统意义上认为工会力量更倾向于推动工资价格上涨,本文的论述基于德国特定的政治和经济环境下,德国较高工会集中度对工资定价的影响。
4 Reisenbichler, A., & Morgan, K. J. "How Germany Won the Euro Crisis and Why Its Gains could be Fleeting," Foreign Affairs,20 June 2013.
1 Dullien, S. "A German Model for Europe," European Council on Foreign Relations, July 2013.
2 Soskice, D., & Iversen, T. "Multiple wage-bargaining systems in the single European currency area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol.14 (3),1998:110-124.
3 OECD. "Economic performance and the structure of collective bargaining," OECD Employment Outlook,1997
1 Ellguth, P., & Kohaut, S. "Tarifbindung und betriebliche Interessenvertretung:Aktuelle Ergebnisse," IAB-Betriebspanel 2011, WSI-Mitteilungen,4/2012.
2 有关集体谈判协调性的典型研究可以参考荷兰阿姆斯特丹大学高等劳动力研究所Jelle Visser建立的ICTWSS数据库,Jelle Visser对相关指标进行了系统的分析,包含工会、工资设定、国家干预及社会影响等当代政治经济学领域的四个重点议题。2013年4月份第四版本的ICTWSS数据涵括所有OECD及EU国家,时间覆盖度为1960年-2011年,部分更新至2012年。
3 Verzeichnis der fur allgemeinverbindlich erklarten Tarifvertrage Stand:1. Oktober 2013, Bundesministerium fur Arbeit und Soziales. Available at: http://www. bmas.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/PDF-Publikationen-DinA4/arbeitsrecht-verzeichnis-allgemeinver bindlicher-tarifvertraege.pdf? blob=publicationFile last accessed at 14/10/2013.
4 赵平.欧元区统一货币政策的适应性及其高通胀成员国的调整机制冶[J].国际金融研究,2005年第8期.
1 Franzese, Robert J., & Hall, P. A. "Institutional Dimensions of Coordinating Wage-Bargaining and Monetary Policy," Available at:http://www-personal.umich.edu/-franzese/i-p-s.hfcbwb4.pdf, last accessed at 12th Sep.2013.
2 Yellen, J. L. "Revolution and Evolution in Central Bank Communications," Remarks at University of California, Berkeley, Nov.13,2012.
3 曾刚,万志宏.中央银行沟通与货币政策：最新实践与启示[J].国际金融研究,2014.2.
1 Hedblom D. "Central Bank Independence, Centralized Wage Bargaining and Price Stability in a Monetary Policy Game," Master Thesis, Lund University,2008.
1 Berger, H., Eijffinger S. & de Haan, J. Central Bank Independence:An Update on Theory and Evidence. Journal of Economics Surveys,2001,15.3-40.
2 Cukiermanm, A. & Lippi, F. Central Bank Independence, Centralization Of Wage Bargaining, Inflation and Unemployment:Theory and Some Evidence. Economic Review, Vol.43,1999:1395-1435.
3 Cukiermanm, A. & Lippi, F. Central Bank Independence, Centralization Of Wage Bargaining, Inflation and Unemployment:Theory and Some Evidence. Economic Review,1999,43,1395-1435
4 Calmfors, L., & Driffill, J."Bargaining Structure, Corporatism and Macroeconomic Performance." Economic Policy,1988,6, pp.13-61.
5 Freeman, R. B. "Labour Market Institutions and Economic Performance," Economic Policy,1988:65-80.
6 Rowthorn, R. E. "Corporatism and Labour Market Performance" in Pekkarinen, J., Pohjola, M. and R. Rowthorn (eds.), Social Corporatism:A Superior Economic System, Oxford:Clarendon Press,1992
7 Dowrick, S. "Wage Bargaining Systems and Productivity Growth in the OCED", Offices of EPAC, Australian Government Publishing Service, Background Paper No.26, Canberra,1993.
8 Chou Y K. The Impact of Central Bank Independence and Union Concentration on Macroeconomic Perfromance in the Presence of Aggregate Supply Shocks:Evidence from 10 OECD Countries (1971-85).2001.
9 Jelle Visser, ICTWSS:Database on Institutional Characteristics of Trade Unions, Wage Setting, State Intervention and Social Pacts in 34 countries between1960 and 2012, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies (AIAS) University of Amsterdam, Version 4-April 20.
10 作者以‘Bruno-Sachs corporatism index和the Calmfors-Driffill centralization ranking'替代劳动市场合作程度。
1 马丙丽.德国工会协调劳动关系机制借鉴及启示[J].北京市工会干部学院学报,2009年3月.
2 Franzese, R. J., & Hall, P. A. "Institutional Dimensions of Coordinating Wage-Bargaining and Monetary Policy,': Available at:http://www-personal.umich.edu/～franzese/i-p-s.hfcbwb4.pdf. last accessed at 12th Feb.2014.
3 Franzese, R. J., & Hall, P. A. "Institutional Dimensions of Coordinating Wage-Bargaining and Monetary Policy" Available at:http://www-personal.umich.edu/-franzese/i-p-s.hfcbwb4.pdf, last accessed at 12th Sep.2013.
1 Collignon, S. "Macroeconomic Imbalances and Comparative Advantages in the Euro Area," European Trade Union Institute, Brussels,2012.
2 若工资指数以物价增长作为目标,则会出现工资增长快于物价增长的状况,进一步刺激物价增长,这样循环往复产生“螺旋效应”。
3 肖捷,王伟华.联邦德国工资增长控制机制及其对我国的启示[J].财政研究,1989年09期.
Individual income tax for employees in Germany, http://www.expatica.com/de/finance business/tax/Individual-income-tax-for-emplovees-in-Germany-18488.html, last accessed on 17th Sep.2013.
5 刘露露,郑春荣.从“第三条道路”理论看德国劳动力市场政策的转向——基于对哈茨改革的分析[J].德国
1 奥特玛.埃明格尔《内外平衡冲突下的德国货币与汇率政策(1948-1975)》收录于周弘等主编《德国马克与经济增长》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2012：112-164.
1 奥特玛.埃明格尔《内外平衡冲突下的德国货币与汇率政策(1948-1975)》收录于周弘等主编《德国马克与经济增长》北京：社会科学文献出版社,2012：112-164.
2 王信,齐璠.20世纪60-70年代围绕西德马克升值的争论及启示[J].经济社会体制比较,2011,(05).
3 王信,齐瑶.20世纪60-70年代围绕西德马克升值的争论及启示[J].经济社会体制比较,2011,(05).
1 1985年9月和1987年2月汇率分别为1：2.8381和1：1.8239.
2 姚大庆.欧元汇率波动对欧元区进出口贸易影响的异质性及其原因研究[J].世界经济研究,2013,(05).
1 作者根据AMECO数据库PPPs汇率数据测算。
1 王玉柱.欧洲央行降息德国为何不爽[N].新民晚报,2013-05-10.
1 有关变量的选择可参考：Gregorio, J., & Wolf, H. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Paper, No.4807, July,1994.
2 德国统计局网站：www.destatis.de
1 周弘等主编.德国马克与德国经济增长[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2012,(03)：235.
2 同上,P227.
1 从1988年起,德国联邦银行将货币供应量指标改为M3。
2 Bundesbank. Fifty years of the Deutsche Mark:Central Bank and the currency in Germany since 1948. Oxford University Press,1999:439-523.
3 Coudert, V., etc. "Do Terms of Trade Drive Real Exchange Rates? Comparing Oil and Commodity Currencies, CEPII, Working Paper, No 2008-32, December,2008.
1 “普雷维什—辛格命题”也称为“贸易条件恶化论(deteriorating trade terms theory)"
2 本文另通过处理后的数据进行均衡汇率分析,得出的结果与不能很好的解释关键时点的汇率调整。
1 Euro Area (Eurozone) Terms of Trade of Goods (Percent Change) Statistics, Available at: http://www.economvwatch.com/economic-statistics/Euro-Area/Terms Trade Goods Percent Change/last accessed at 31/10/2013.
2 Available at:http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/dailv update_e/monthlv xm manuf price e.xls, last accessed at 1/11/2013.
3 本文其他数据若没有Euro-12,则选择Euro Area数据,按照加入欧元区的时间平均计算(EA11-2000, EA12-2006, EA13-2007, EA15-2008, EA16-2010, EA17))
4 Available at:http://www.bis.org/statistics/eer/accessed at 1/11/2013.
1 史蒂文·拉特纳.德国经济为何一枝独秀[N].FT中文网,2011年06月28日.详见：http://www.ftchinese,com/story/001039302最后访问于：2013/1班0.
1 Available at:http://www.bis.org/statistics/eer/accessed at 1/11/2013.
1 关于协整方程模型的相关论述可参考：Beirne, J. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Integration in Crisis-Affected Regions," Journal of International and global Economic Studies. Vol.1(2), December 2008:1-25.
1 OECD和OEF分别对当前的均衡汇率进行测算,得出2012年欧元兑美元的合理比价分别是1.24和1.22。
2 Jean-Luc Proutat," euro dollar what does ppp say?" 8th February 2013, economic-research.bnpparibas.com, available at:http://c3352932.r32.cf0.rackcdn.com/pdf0ad8901cf436a7e663b9eele263d53a2.pdflast accessed at 1st.Dec.2013
3 Coudert, V., Couharde, V.,&Mignon, V. "On currency misalignments within the euro area," Review of International Economics,2013,21(1):35-48.
1 Cline W. R., & Williamson,J. "Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute for International Economics. Mav.2011.
2 Duwicquet, V., Mazier,J., & Saadaoui, J. "Exchange Rate Misalignments, Fiscal Federalism and Redistribution: How to Adjust in a Monetary Union," Preliminary paper presented at the 9th EUROFRAME Conference on Economic Policy Issues in the European Union, Kiel, Germany. June.2012.
1 Giavazzi F, Spaventa L. "Why the current account may matter in a monetary union:lessons from the financial crisis in the euro area," The Euro Area and The Financial Crisis,2011:199.
1 本部分相关数据转引自：蔡制宏.论德国对外贸易政策及其对我国的启示[D].对外经济贸易大学硕士论文, 2007.
1 Statistisches Bundesamt. Gesamtentwicklung des deutschen Auβenhandels ab 1950, Wiesbaden 2013. Available at: https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/Aussenhandel/Gesamtentwicklung/Tabellen/G esamtentwicklungAussenhandel.pdf?_blob=publicationFile last accessed on 8th Dec.2013.
1 蔡制宏.论德国对外贸易政策及其对我国的启示[D].对外经济贸易大学硕士论文,2007.
1 Statistisches Bundesamt, Rangfolge der Handelspartner im AuBenhandel der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Wiesbaden 2013, available at: http://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/Aussenhandel/Handelspartner/Tabellen/Rangf olgeHandelspartner.pdf?_blob=publicationFile Last accessed at 8th Dec.2013.
1 迈克尔·波特国家竞争优势[M].华夏出版社,2002：344.
2 傅钧文.德国产业竞争力与竞争优势分析[J].德国研究,2003,(04).
3 傅道忠,汤菲.德国经济政策实践及其借鉴[J].当代财经,2003,(02).
4 Ludger Lindlar. "Das missverstandene Wirtschaftswunder. Westdeutschland und die westeuropaeische nachkriegsprosperitaet. Tubingen.6.2"中译本参考周弘等主编.德国马克与经济增长[M].北京：社会科学文献 出版社,2012：431.
1 同上。
2 Stahn, K. "Has the Impact of Key Determinants of German Exports Changes? Results from Estimations of Germany's Intra euro-area and Extra-euro area Exports," Deutsche Bundesbank, Discussion Paper 07/2006, available at: http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Downloads/Publications/Discussion Paper_1/2006/2006_02_27 dkp_0 7.pdf?_blob=publicationFile last accessed at 9th Dec.2013
8 Jansen, H. "Domestic gloom and export boom:a look at German competitiveness", Ecfin Country Focus, Volume 2, Issue 6, Date:11.04.2005.
4 Blanchard, O. J., & Philippon, T. "The Quality of Labor Relations and Unemployment," MIT Department of Economics Working Paper, No.04-25,2004.
1 Danninger, S., & Joutz, F. "What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share?" IMF Working Paper, WP/07/24, February 2007.
2 Allard C. etc. "Germany, Italy, and Spain:Explaining Differences in External Sector Performance among Large Euro Area Countries", IMF Country Report No.05/401,2005. Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/cr05401.pdf last accessed at 9th Dec.2013.
3 Thorbecke, W., & Atsuyuki, K. The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Germany's Exports,2012.
1 许少强等.人民币实际汇率研究[M].复旦大学出版社,2006.5.
1 李子耐,叶阿忠.高级应用计量经济学[M].清华大学,2012年2月第1版。
1 中国新闻网：德国外贸出口额10月创历史纪录全年业绩衰退[N].2013年12月09日,http://www.chinanews.com/gj/2013/12-09/5598419.shtml访问日期：2013/12/16.
1 高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].清华大学出版社,2009：267-268.
2 同上。
1 Facts about German foreign trade in 2011, German Ministry of Economics and Technology, business growth prosperity, March 2012.
2 2012年德国对欧元区其他五个逆差国的顺差达到591.385亿欧元,占其总顺差1882.548亿欧元的31.4%。最大的顺差来源国为法国达397.034亿欧元。"Foreign trade Ranking of Germany's trading partners in foreign trade 2012" Published on May 22,2013. www.destatis.de
1 1989-1998年期间数据为EU-15,2013年及以后数据为AMECO预测数据。
1 本文数据分析显示,若加入2012年的数据,两序列将不是同阶平稳序列。
2 取对数的目的在于增强数据平稳性,同时有助于检验两者之间的弹性关系,由于序列中存在负数,因此数据处理过程中先取绝对值,然后再给予负系数处理。
1 作为一个整体上的共识,南方国家货币供应量增速要快于北方国家,北方国家经济增速快于南方国家,本文忽略相关数据的具体分析。
1 数据来自德国统计局,www.destatis.de.
1 OECD数据库：http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=AV_AN_WAGE.
1 Low-wage earners as a proportion of all employees by employment contract.
2 相关数据来自Eurostat。
3 商务部网站编译：CSU将为德法定最低工资标准设定门槛[N].2014.01.09,http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/j/jvjl/m/201401/20140100455644. shtml最后访问日期：2014/2/3.
4 国际在线：德联邦银行反对在全德国实行统一最低工资标准[N].2013-11-19,http://gb.cri.cn/42071/2013/11/19/6992s4327400.htm最后访问日期：2014/2/3.
5 Jorg Eigendorf and Sebastian Jost:A minimum wage has to be depoliticized.Welt am Sonntag.2013.9.23 http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Interviews/2013_09_29 weidmann welt am sonntag.html?view=rende r%5BDruckversion%5D 最后访问日期:2014/2/3.
1 Mudell. "A theory of optimal currency area." The American Economic Review,1961.
2 相关分析可参考：Stefan Collignon. Macroeconomic imbalances and comparative advantages in the Euro Area. Working paper, sponsored by Bertelsmann Foundation. Brussels, with European Trade Union Institute (ETUI) and Friedrich Ebert Foundation:Brussels.2012.
3 Berger, H. & Nitsch, V."The Euro's Effect on Trade Imbalances" IMF Working Paper. WP/10/226.
4 Bussiere, M.. Chudik, A. & Mehl. A. "Does the Euro Make a Difference? Spatio-Temporal Transmission of Global Shocks to Real Effective Exchange Rates in an Infinite VAR," ECB Working Paper No.1292. February 3. 2011.
5 Friedman, Milton,"The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates," in Milton Friedman, Essays in Positive Economics. (Chicago:The University of Chicago Press),1953:157-203.
6 Ghosh, Atish, Marco Terrones. and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. "Exchange Rate Regimes and External Adjustment: New Answers to an Old Debate," Manuscript.2008.
1 Chinn, M.. & Wei, Shang-Jin "A Faith-based Initiative:Do We Really Know that a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Facilitates Current Account Adjustment?" NBER Working Paper. No.14420.2008.
2 Andrew, R. "Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance. Some Evidence from Developing Countries,"'Economics Letters. Vol.34.1990:271-275.
3 Debelle, G,& Faruqee, H. "What Determines the Current Account? A Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Paper, No.96/58.1996.
4 Lane, P., & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti "External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate,"' European Economic Review, Vol.46,2002:pp.1049-1071.
5 Berger, H., & Nitsch, V. "Zooming Out:The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol.28, Issue 8,2008:pp.1244-1260.
6 Ahearne, Alan, Birgit Schmitz, and Jiirgen von Hagen "Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area." Manuscript,2007.
'Schmitz, Birgit, and Jurgen von Hagen "Current Account Imbalances and Financial Integration in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Paper. No.7262,2009.
8 European Commission "Special Report:Competitiveness Development within the Euro Area," Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, Vol.8, No.1.2009.
9 European Commission "Special Issue:The Impact of the Global Crisis on Competitiveness and Current Account Divergences in the Euro Area," Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, Vol.9, No.1,2010.
1 Blanchard.0."Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," NBER Working Paper. No.12925.2007.
2 Schmitz, B., & Hagen, J. "Current Account Imbalances and Financial Integration in the Euro Area." CEPR Discussion Paper, No.7262,2009.
3 Ju, Jiandong and Shang-Jin Wei.2007. "Current Account Adjustment:Some New Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Paper, No.13388
4 Biroli. Pietro, Gilles Mourre, and Alessandro Antonio Turrini.2010, "Adjustment in the Euro Area and Regulation of Product and Labor Markets:An Empirical Assessment", CEPR Discussion Paper Series, No.8010
5 Stefan Collignon, European Wage Bargaining, Social Dialogue and Imbalances in the Euro Area:A Note to the Committee on Employment and social Affairs of the European Parliament,18.2.2013. Available at: http://www.stefancollignon.de/PDF/European%20Wage%20Bargaining.pdflast accessed at 4th Feb.2014
6 Sinn. H. W.2013. Austerity, Growth and Inflation. Remarks on the Euro Area's unresolved Competitiveness Problems. European Parliament. PE 492.471.
1 李子耐,叶阿忠.高级应用计量经济学[M].清华大学出版社,北京,2012：p.179.
1 Lordon, F. "The logic and Limits of Desinflation Competitive." Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol 14, No. 1,1998:96-113.
1 Lordon, F. "The logic and Limits of Desinflation Com-petitive," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol 14. No.1,1998:96-113.
2 裘援平等.当代社会民主主义与“第三条道路”[M1.北京：当代世界出版社,2004：.67-68.
3 Corry D, Holtham G "Growth with stability:progressive macroeconomic policy". Institute for Public Policy. 1995:143-148.
4 Lordon, F. "The logic and limits of disinflation competitive", Oxford Review of Economic Policy,1998,14(1): 96-113.
1 James I. W. European Monetary Integration & Domestic Politics:Britain, France, and Italy, Lynne Rienner Publishers,2000:124-134.
1 James I. W. European Monetary Integration & Domestic Politics:Britain. France, and Italy. Lynne Rienner Publishers.2000:124-134.
1 Artus, P. "From a successful'competitive devaluation/disinflation" to a successful'competitive reduction in wage cost'?" NATIXIS Research Paper. November 23.2012-No.791.
2 Chang M. Monetary integration in the European Union, Palgrave Macmillan.2009:38.
3 Kaelberer, M. Money and Power in Europe:The Political Economy of European Monetary Cooperation. Albany, N.Y., SunyPree.2001.
4 对德国央行而言,其在初始阶段对欧洲货币一体化的推动一直心存疑虑,主要担心共同货币政策可能对本国货币政策独立性构成冲击。但德国政府却始终扮演主动的角色,将其视为对外政策的重要支柱。此外,法国政府从法郎地位及自身对欧洲事务的影响力出发,一直努力将自己和德国捆绑在一起,共同推动欧洲货币一体化。
1 Michele Chang:"Monetary integration in the European Union'" Palgrave Macmillan,2009:78.
1 Buti M.,&Turrini, A. "Slow but Steady? Achievements and Challenges in Competition Disinflation within the euro Area," ECFIN Economic Brief,2012.
2 余南平,梁菁.新社会风险下的西欧国家工会[J].欧洲研究,2009年第4期。
1 郑斌.法国总理呼吁德国确立最低工资制度[N].新华网,2013年09月24日.
1 搜狐财经.农村物价指数高于城市不利缩小城乡差距[N].2012年05月11日.
[1]艾哈德.来自竞争的繁荣[M].北京：商务印书馆,1983.
[2]巴曙松,王群.人民币实际有效汇率对我国产业、就业结构影响的实证分析[J].财经理论与实践,2009(3).
[3]蔡制宏.论德国对外贸易政策及其对我国的启示[D].对外经济贸易大学硕士论文,2007.
[4]曹志鹏.利率平价理论在中国的实证检验：2006—2008[D].山东大学,2008.
[5]程恩富.新自由主义的起源、发展及其影响[J].求是,2005,(03).
[6]范方志.中央银行独立性：理论与实践[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2007.
[7]冯肇伯.西德马克40年：经验.启示.借鉴[J].经济学家,1989,(01).
[8]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].清华大学出版社,2009.
[9]傅钧文.德国产业竞争力与竞争优势分析[J].德国研究,2003,(04)
[10]傅道忠,汤菲.德国经济政策实践及其借鉴[J].当代财经,2003,(02).
[11]韩胜飞,戴金平.国际商品市场中“一价定律”的验证：共同概率模型和动态贸易变量[J].南开经济研究,2006,(2).
[12]何慧刚.利率汇率传导机制研究：理论模型及实证检验[J].湖北经济学院学报,2007,(03).
[]3]李子耐.叶阿忠.高级应用计量经济学[M].北京：清华大学,2012.
[14]劳伦斯S.科普兰.汇率与国际金融[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2011.
[15]方齐云,方臻旻.国际经济学[M].东北财经大学出版社,2009年3月
[16]姜波克等.经济增长中均衡汇率的实现与作用[J].国际金融研究,2004,(12).
[17]姜新旺,李未无.“H-M-K”假说的检验——基于中国贸易结构数据的实证研究[J].国
际贸易问题,2006,(04).
[18]蒋自强,石晋川.当代西方经济学流派[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2011.
[19]刘涛.日本、德国应对本币升值的货币政策比较及启示：基于广场协议的分析[J].中国债券,2011,(10).
[20]刘阳.均衡汇率与人民币汇率机制研究[M].成都：西南财经大学出版社,2006.
[21]刘露露,郑春荣.从“第三条道路”理论看德国劳动力市场政策的转向——基于对哈茨改革的分析[J].德国研究,2009,(04).
[22]马丙丽.德国工会协调劳动关系机制借鉴及启示[J].北京市工会干部学院学报,2009,(03).
[23]迈克尔·波特国家竞争优势[M].华夏出版社,2002：344.
[24][法]米歇尔·阿格利埃塔.新的增长机制的诞生——对罗伯特·布伦纳危机理论的反驳[J].国外理论动态,2009,(05).
[25]施建淮,傅雄广.汇率传递理论文献综述[J].世界经济,2010,(05).
[26]齐璠,王信.1960s-1970s西德马克升值的争论及启示经济社会体制比较[J].经济社会体制比较,2011,(05).
[27]裘援平等.当代社会民主主义与“第三条道路”[M].北京：当代世界出版社,2004.
[28]史蒂文·拉特纳.德国经济为何一枝独秀[N]. FT中文网,2011.06.28.
[29]唐欣语.从怀特计划、凯恩斯计划到国际货币基金组织协定[J].银行家,2010,(03).
[30]王伟旭,曾秋根.警惕美国的第二次阴谋[M].人民日报出版社,2003.
[31]王玉柱.欧元区通胀差异及对经济失衡的影响分析[M]. 欧洲研究,2013,(04).
[32]王凯.人民币实际汇率研究[M].西安：西北工业大学出版社,2012.
[33]吴凌.巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应在中国的检验[D].上海社会科学院.2008
[34]肖捷,王伟华.联邦德国工资增长控制机制及其对我国的启示[J].财政研究,1989,(09).
[35]许罕多.人民币实际有效汇率错位研究[J].当代经济研究,2011,(07).
[36]许少强等.人民币实际汇率研究[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2006.
[37]晏小宝.战后联邦德国的货币改革和货币管理[J].世界经济研究,1985,(06).
[38]杨立.国际货币经济学[M].上海：上海外国语大学出版社,2008.
[39]姚大庆.欧元汇率波动对欧元区进出口贸易影响的异质性及其原因研究[J].世界经济研究,2013,(05).
[40]赵大平.人民币汇率传递对中国贸易收支的影响[M].上海：世纪出版集团,2007.
[41]赵平.欧元区统一货币政策的适应性及其高通胀成员国的调整机制冶[J].国际金融研究,2005,(08).
[42]张琳,廉永辉.实际汇率、产业结构和城乡收入差距[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(12).
[43]张明.IMF评估汇率失衡的新方法EBA述评[J].经济学动态,2012,(07).
[44]张成思.通货膨胀、经济增长与货币供应：回归货币主义?[J].世界经济,2012,(08).
[45]赵登峰.人民币市场均衡汇率与实际汇率研究[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2005.
[46]赵柯.德国马克的崛起——货币国际化政治经济学分析[D].中国社会科学院研究生院,2013,(06).
[47]周弘等.德国马克与德国经济增长[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2012.
[48]余南平,梁菁.新社会风险下的西欧国家工会[J].欧洲研究,2009, (04).
[49]郑斌.法国总理呼吁德国确立最低工资制度[N].新华网,2013.09.24.
[50]曾刚,万志宏.中央银行沟通与货币政策：最新实践与启示[J].国际金融研究,2014,(2).
[1]Alberola, E. etc. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates:Euro, Dollar,'ins,''outs,' and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF working paper no.99/175, November 1999.
[2]Alesina, A., & Summers, L.H. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol.25(2), May,1993.
[3]Allard, C. etc. "Germany, Italy, and Spain:Explaining Differences in External Sector Performance among Large Euro Area Countries", IMF Country Report, No.05/401,2005.
[4]Apel, E. Central Banking Systems Compared:the ECB, the Pre-euro Bundesbank, and the Federal Reserve System, Routledge,2003.
[5]Artus, P. "From a successful'competitive devaluation/disinflation' to a successful'competitive reduction in wage cost'?" NATIXIS Research Paper, November 23,2012.
[6]Baldwin, R., & Krugman, P. "Persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.104(4),1989.
[7]Balassa, B. "The purchasing-power parity doctrine:a reappraisal," The Journal of Political Economy,72.6,1964.
[8]Beirne, J. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Integration in Crisis-Affected Regions" Journal of International and global Economic Studies, Vol.1 (2),December 2008.
[9]Ben, S. B. "Inflation in Latin America:A New Era?" Remarks at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Economic Summit, Stanford, California, February 11,2005.
[10]Berger, H. "The Bundesbank's path to independence:Evidence from the 1950s," Public Choice, Vol.93.3-4,1997.
[11]Berger, H., Eijffinger S. & de Haan,J. "Central Bank Independence:An Update on Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economics Surveys, Vol.15,2001.
[12]Berger. H, & Nitsch, V. "The Euro's Effect on Trade Imbalances," IMF Working Paper WP/10/226,2010.
[13]Berger, H. & Nitsch, V. "Zooming Out:The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol.28, Issue 8,2008.
[14]Biroli, P., Mourre, G. & Turrini, A. "Adjustment in the Euro Area and Regulation of Product and Labor Markets:An Empirical Assessment," CEPR Discussion Paper Series, No.8010,2010.
[15]Blanchard, O. J. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," NBER Working Paper, No. 12925,2007.
[16]Blanchard, O. J. & Philippon, T. "The Quality of Labor Relations and Unemployment," MIT Department of Economics Working Paper,No.04-25,2004.
[17]Bussiere, M. etc. "Does the Euro Make a Difference? Spatio-Temporal Transmission of Global Shocks to Real Effective Exchange Rates in an Infinite VAR," ECB Working Paper No. 1292, February 3,2011.
[18]Braun, H.J. The German Economy in the Twentieth Century:the German Reich and the German Federal Republic, Routledge,1990.
[19]Branson, W. H. "The Minimum Covered Interest Differential Needed for International Arbitrage Activity," Journal of Political Economy, Vol.77(6),1969.
[20]Buti, M. & Turrini, A. "Slow but Steady? Achievements and Challenges in Competition Disinflation within the euro Area,"EC FIN Economic Brief,2012.
[21]Cline, W. R. & Williamson. J. "Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates.' Peterson Institute for International Economics, May,2011.
[22]Calmfors, L. and Driffill, J. "Bargaining Structure, Corporatism and Macroeconomic Performance." Economic Policy, Vol.6,1988.
[23]Canzoneri. M.B., Cumby, R.E. & Diba, B. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run:Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," Journal of International Economics, Vol.47,1999.
[24]Cargill, T. F. "The statistical association between central bank independence and inflation," BNL Quarterly Review, No.193,1995.
[25]Carstens, R. "Die Aufwertungsdebatte," Kieler Studien 63. IWK,1963.
[26]Carton, B. & Herve, K. "Euro area real effective exchange rate misalignments," CEPII Working paper, No 319-19, April 2012.
[27]Chang, M. Monetary integration in the European Union, Palgrave Macmillan,2009.
[28]Chinn, M. & Johnston, L. "Real exchange rate levels, productivity and demand shocks: evidence from a panel of 14 countries," NBER Working Paper, No.5709,1996.
[29]Chinn, M. & Wei, S. A Faith-based Initiative:Do We Really Know that a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Facilitates Current Account Adjustment? NBER Working Paper, No.14420,2008.
[30]Chinn, M. D. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates:Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open economies review,2006.
[31]Chou, Y. K. "The Impact of Central Bank Independence and Union Concentration on Macroeconomic Performance in the Presence of Aggregate Supply Shocks:Evidence from 10 OECD Countries (1971-85)," Working Papers Series, No 805, Department of Economics-The University of Melbourne,2001.
[32]Clarida, R. and J. Gali. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations:How Important are Nominal Schocks?" in:Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, Vol.41,1994.
[33]Closterman, J. & Schnatz, B. "The Determinants of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate?' Konjunkturpolitik, Vol.44,2000.
[34]Clift, B. French Socialism in a Global Era, Continuum International Publishing Group,2005.
[35]Cukierman, A., & Lippi, F. "Central Bank Independence, Centralization Of Wage Bargaining, Inflation and Unemployment:Theory and Some Evidence," European Economic Review, Vol. 43(7),1999.
[36]Cukierman, A., Edwards, S., & Tabellini, G. "Seignorage and Political Instability," American Economic Review, June 1992.
[37]Cukierman, A., Web, S. B., & Neyapti, B. "Measuring the independence of central banks and its effect on policy outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review 6.3,1993.
[38]Cumby, R. E., & Obstfeld, M. "A Note on Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials:A Test of the Fisher Hypothesis," The Journal of Finance, Vol.36.3,1981
[39]Cumby, R. E. & Huizinga, J. "The Predictability of Real Exchange Rate Changes in the Short and Long Run," Japan and the World Economy, Volume 3,1990.
[40]Cushman, D. O. "The effects of exchange rate risk on international trade and direct investment," PhD. Thesis of Vanderbilt University,1980.
[41]Cohen, B. J. "An Explosion in the Kitchen?:Economic Relations with Other Advanced Industrial States." in Eagle Resurgent? The Reagen Era in American Foreign Policy, Boston: Little, Brown and Company,1987.
[42]Collignon, S. "European Wage Bargaining, Social Dialogue and Imbalances in the Euro Area: A Note to the Committee on Employment and social Affairs of the European Parliament", A Note to the Committee on Employment and social Affairs of the European Parliament.18.2.2013.
[43]Collignon, S. Macroeconomic Imbalances and Comparative Advantages in the Euro Area, European Trade Union Institute, Brussels,2012.
[44]Coudert, V., etc. "On currency misalignments within the euro area"April 2012, CEPII, WP No. 2012-07.
[45]Coudert, V., etc. "Do Terms of Trade Drive Real Exchange Rates? Comparing Oil and Commodity Currencies" CEPII, No 2008-32, December,2008.
[46]Coudert, V., Couharde, C. & Mignon, V. "On currency misalignments within the euro area.' Review of International Economics, Vol.21,2013.
[47]Corry, D., Holtham. "Growth with stability:progressive macroeconomic policy." Institute for Public Policy,1995.
[48]Danninger, S. & Joutz, F. "What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share?" IMF Working Paper, WP/07/24,2007.
[49]Debelle, G. & Faruqee, H. "What Determines the Current Account? A Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Paper, No.96/58,1996.
[50]Dellas, H., & Zilberfarb, B. Z. "Real exchange rate volatility and international trade:a reexamination of the theory," Southern Economic Journal, Vol.59,1993.
[51]Deutsch Bundesbank, Annual Report,1975.
[52]Deutsche Bundesbank. Fifty years of the Deutsche Mark:Central bank and currency in Germany since 1948, Oxford University Press,1999.
[53]Devereux, Michael, B., & Engel, C. "Fixed vs. floating exchange rates:How price setting affects the optimal choice of exchange-rate regime," NBER Paper, No. w6867,1998.
[54]Dowrick, S. Wage Bargaining Systems and Productivity Growth in the OCED, Offices of EPAC, Australian Government Publishing Service, Background Paper No.26, Canberra.1993.
[55]Dullien, S. "A German Model for Europe" European Council on Foreign Relations, July 2013.
[56]Duwicquet, V., Mazier, J., & Saadaoui, J. "Exchange Rate Misalignments, Fiscal Federalism and Redistribution:How to Adjust in a Monetary Union," Conference Paper, Kiel, Germany. June. 2012.
[57]Dyson, K. Elusive Union:The Process of Economic and Monetary Union in Europe, London, longman,1994.
[58]Dyson, K., H. F., & Featherstone, K. The Road to Maastricht:Negotiating Economic and Monetaiy Union, Oxford:Oxford University Press.1999.
[59]Edwards, S. "The Determination of Equilibrium Exchange Rate," UCLA Working Paper No. 508, Sep.1988.
[60]Eichengreen, B. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," University of California-Berkeley, Prepared for the World Bank's Commission on Growth. July,2007.
[61]Ellguth, P., & Kohaut, S. "Tarifbindung und betriebliche Interessenvertretung:Aktuelle Ergebnisse." IAB-Betriebspanel 2011, WSI-Mitteilungen,4/2012.
[62]Emmanuel, M. D. A Europe Made of Money-The Emergence of the European Monetary System, Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London,2012.
[63]Engel, C., & Rogers, J. H. "Violating the law of one price:should we make a federal case out of it? "NBER Paper, No. w6867,1999.
[64]Engel, C., & Rogers, J. H., "Regional patterns in the law of one price:the roles of geography vs. currencies," NBER, No. w5395,1995.
[65]ETU Article. "Consolidated Versions of the Treaty on European Union and of the Treaty Establishing the European Community," Official Journal of the European Union.2006.
[66]European Commission. "Special Report:Competitiveness Development within the Euro Area," Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, Vol.8, No.1,2009.
[67]European Commission. "Special Issue:The Impact of the Global Crisis on Competitiveness and Current Account Divergences in the Euro Area," Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, Vol.9, No.1,2010.
[68]Facts about German foreign trade in 2011, German Ministry of Economics and Technology, business growth prosperity, March 2012.
[69]Fama, E. F.,&Gibbons, M. R. "Inflation, real returns, and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, May.1982.
[70]Faruqee, H., Isard, P., & Masson, P.R. "A Macroeconomic Balance Framework for Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates", in:MacDonald, R.&Stein, J. (eds.), Equilibrium Exchange Rates. Amsterdam:Kluter.1999.
[71]Fischer, S. "Central-bank independence revisited," American Economic Review, Vol. 85.2,1995.
[72]Fitoussi, J. P. etc. Competitive Disinflation:The Mark and Budgetary Politics in Europe, Oxford University Press,1993.
[73]Fitoussi, J. P. "Diverging Tendencies of Competitiveness," Briefing Paper N.1-Oct. European Parliament, Committee for Economic and Monetary Affairs,2006.
[74]Fischer, Wolfgang Chr., ed. German Hyperinflation 1922/23:A Law and Economics Approach, Eul-Verlag Koln,2010.
[75]Feldstein, M. S. "Weaker Euro Will Help Solve Europe Deficits Woes." Financial Times, December 19,2011.
[76]Feldstein, M. S. "The Budget Deficit and the Dollar," in Stanley Fisher (eds), NBER Macroeconomic Annual 1986, Volume 1,1986.
[77]Franzese J., Robert J., & Hall, P. "Institutional dimensions of coordinating wage-bargaining and monetary policy," Unions, Employers, and Central Banks:Macroeconomic Coordination and Institutional Change in Social Market Economies,2000.
[78]Freeman, R. B. "Labor Market Institutions and Economic Performance." Economic Policy, 1988.
[79]Frenkel, J. A., & Levich, R. M. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage:Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods," Journal of Political Economy, Vol.85(6),1977.
[80]Frenkel, R. & Taylor, L. "Real exchange rate, monetary policy, and employment:economic development in a garden of forking paths," conference Alternatives to Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy for Stable and Egalitarian Growth in Developing Countries, CEDES, Buenos Aires.2005.
[81]Fried, J., & Howitt, P. "The effects of inflation on real interest rates," The American Economic Review,1983.
[82]Friedman, M. "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates,"in Friedman's Essays in Positive Economics, Chicago:University of Chicago Press.1953.
[83]Friedman, M. "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates," in Milton Friedman, Essays in Positive Economics, Chicago:The University of Chicago Press,1953.
[84]Ghosh, A. R., Terrones, M. E., & Zettelmeyer, J. "Exchange Rate Regimes and External Adjustment:New Answers to an Old Debate." in C. Wyplosz, Ed..The New International Monetary System:Essays In Honor Of Alexander Swoboda, Routledge, March 2010.
[85]Ghura, D., & Grennes, T. J. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Vol.42(1).1993.
[86]Giavazzi, F. & Pagano, M. "The advantage of tying one's hands:EMS discipline and Central Bank credibility," European Economic Review,32.1988.
[87]Giavazzi, F. & Spaventa, L. "Why the current account may matter in a monetary union: lessons from the financial crisis in the euro area," The Euro Area and the Financial Crisis,2011.
[88]Giersch. "Economic Policy for the EC:The Way Forward," TNA, FCO30/2269,4 December 1974.
[89]Goodman, J. B. Monetary Sovereignty:The Politics of Central Banking in Western Europe, Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,1992.
[90]Gregorio, J.D. & Wolf, H.C."Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Paper, No.4807,1994.
[91]Hedblom, D. "Central Bank Independence, Centralized Wage Bargaining and Price Stability in a Monetary Policy Game", Master Thesis of Lund University,2008.
[92]Hetzel, R. L. "German monetary history in the second half of the twentieth century:from the Deutsch Mark to the Euro," FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol.88, no.2, spring 2002.
[93]Hill, C. W. L. International business:competing in the global market place, Mc GrawHill.2007.
[94]Hooper, P.&Kohlhagen, S. W. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Vol.8(4).1978.
[95]Hsieh, D. A. "The Determination of the Real Exchange Rate:The Productivity Approach,' Journal of International Economics,1982,12.
[96]Huizinga, J. "An Empirical Investigation of the Long-Run Behavior of Real Exchange Rates", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol.27,1987.
[97]IMF Report. "External Balance Assessment (EBA):Technical Background of the Pilot Methodology," August 3,2012.
[98]James I. W. European Monetary Integration & Domestic Politics:Britain, France, and Italy, Lynne Rienner Publishers.2000.
[99]Jansen, H. "Domestic gloom and export boom:a look at German competitiveness." Ecfin Country Focus, Vol.2(6),11.04.2005.
[100]Jelle Visser, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies (AIAS) University of Amsterdam, ICTWSS, Version 4-April 2013.
[101]Jeong, S., Mazier, J. & Saadaoui, J. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels:A FEER Approach."CEPN,2010.
[102]Johnson, P. A. The government of money:Monetarism in Germany and the United States, Ithaca:Cornell University Press.1998.
[103]Ju, J. & Wei, S. "Current Account Adjustment:Some New Theory and Evidence." NBER Working Paper, No.13388,2007.
[104]Kaltenthaler, K. "The Bundesbank and the Formation of the ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy" German Politics, Vol.14, No.3, September 2005.
[105]Kaelberer, M. Money and Power in Europe:The Political Economy of European Monetary Cooperation, Albany, N.Y., Sunny Press.2001.
[106]Koray, F. & Lastrapes, W. D. "Real exchange rate volatility and US bilateral trade:a VAR approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.71(4),1989.
[107]Kreicher, L. L. "Eurodollar Arbitrage," Quarterly Review, vol.7, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Summer 1982.
[108]Kydland, F. E., & Prescott, E. C. "Rules rather than discretion:The inconsistency of optimal plans," The Journal of Political Economy,1977.
[109]Konig, R. & Willeke, C. "German Monetary Unification:Domestic and External Issues" in Frowen.S. F. & Pringle,R. edited. Inside the Bundesbank, St. Martin's Press, Inc.,1998.
[110]Lane, P. R. & Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. "External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate," European Economic Review, Vol.46,2002.
[111]Lordon, F. "The Logic and Limits of Desinflation Competitive." Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Spring,1998.
[112]MacDonald, R. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates:An Overview" Discussion paper 3/200, Economic Research Group of the Deutsch Bundesbank. July 2000.
[113]MacRae, C. D. "A political model of the business cycle," The Journal of Political Economy, 1977.
[114]Maier & Haan, J. "How independent is the Bundesbank really? A survey" in Jakob de Haan edited. The History of the Bundesbank:Lessons for the ECB, Routledge,2000.
[115]Martin, T. B. etc. "The Bundesbank's Inflation Policy and Asymmetric Behavior of the German Term Structure" Review of International Economics, Volume 12, Issue 3. August 2004.
[116]Mendoza, E. G. "The terms of trade, the real exchange rate, and economic fluctuations," International Economic Review,1995.
[117]Modigliani, F., & Cohn, R."Inflation, Rational Valuation, and the Market," Financial Analysts'Journal,1979.
[118]Mudell. "A theory of optimal currency area," The American Economic Review,1961.
[119]Marshall, A. Principles of Economics, London:Macmillan,1961.
[120]Nordhaus, W. "The political business cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Vol.42,1975.
[121]OECD. "Economic performance and the structure of collective bargaining," OECD Employment Outlook,1997.
[122]Razin, O. & Collins, S. M. "Real exchange rate misalignments and growth," NBER, No. 6174,1997.
[123]Pierre, L. S. & Martin, T. B. "The Bundesbank's Communications Strategy and Policy Conflicts with the Federal Government" Southern Economic Journal, Vol.72, No.2, Oct.,2005.
[124]Report of the Study Group. "Economic and Monetary Union1980"II/675/3/74-Ecofin, Brussels,8 March,1975.
[125]Reisenbichler, A. & Morgan, K. J. "How Germany Won the Euro Crisis and Why Its Gains could be Fleeting," Foreign Affairs,20 June 2013.
[126]Richard, H. C. & Gertler, M. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy" in Romer C. D. & Romer D. H. ed. Reducing Inflation:Motivation and Strategy', University of Chicago Press, 1997.
[127]Rogoff, K. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.100,1985.
[128]Rowthorn, R. E. "Corporatism and Labour Market Performance" in Pekkarinen, J., Pohjola, M. & R. Rowthorn (eds.), Social Corporatism:A Superior Economic System, Clarendon Press, Oxford,1992.
[129]Rose, A. "Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance. Some Evidence from Developing Countries," Economics Letters, Vol.34.1990.
[130]Proutat, J. L. "euro dollar what does ppp say?" 8th February 2013, available at: http://c3352932.r32. cf0. rackcdn. com/pdf0ad8901 cf436a 7e663b9ee1e263d53a2.pdf Last accessed at 1st Dec.2013.
[131]Summers, L. H. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates:A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Paper, No.836,1982.
[132]Schmitz, Birgit, & Hagen, J. "Current Account Imbalances and Financial Integration in the Euro Area." CEPR Discussion Paper, No.7262,2009.
[133]Shabsigh, G., & Domac. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth-Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia," International Monetary Fund,1999.
[134]Shalishali, M. K. "A Test of the International Fisher Effect in Selected Asian Countries,' International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, Vol.2 No.4,2012.
[135]Shiller R. J. "Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models:A critical review," Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.4(1),1978.
[136]Sinn, H. W. "Austerity, Growth and Inflation. Remarks on the Euro Area's unresolved Competitiveness Problems," CESifo Working Paper No.4086, January,2013.
[137]Soskice,D. & Iversen, T. "Multiple wage-bargaining systems in the single European currency area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy,1998.
[138]Stahn, K. "Has the impact of key determinants of German exports changed? Results from estimations of Germany's intra euro-area and extra euro-area exports," Deutsche Bundesbank, Discussion Paper, Economic Studies, No 07/2006.
[139]Thorbecke, W., & KATO, A. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Germany's Exports,' RIETI Discussion Paper Series,12-E-08,2012.
[140]Tietmeyer H. "The Bundesbank:Committed to Stability" Inside the Bundesbank,1998. Trichet, J.C. "Dix ans de desinflation competitive en France," Notes Bleues de Bercy 16-31, Octobre,1992.
[141]Turroni, O.B. Economics of Inflation:A Study of Currency Depreciation in Post-War Germany, Ludwig von Mises Institute, John Dickens & CO., LTD, Northampton,2007.
[142]Utami, S. R., & Inanga, E. L. "Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Inflation Rates in Indonesia, the International Fisher Effect Theory," International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol.26,2009.
[143]Verzeichnis der fur allgemeinverbindlich erklarten Tarifvertrage Stand:1. Bundesministerium fur Arbeit und Soziales, Oktober 2013.
[144]Verdun, A. "The Uncertain Future of the Euro," in Zimmermann, H. & Dur, A. ed. Key Controversies in European Integration, Palgrave Macmillan,2012.
[145]Wahlig, B. "Bundesbank and Federal Government Relations" in Stephen F. Frowen and Robert Pringle edited. Inside the Bundesbank, St. Martin's Press, Inc.,1998.
[146]Willms, M. "The Monetary Policy Decision Process in the Federal Republic of Germany," in The Political Economy of Monetary Policy:National and International Aspects, Conference, Series No.26, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, July 1983.
[147]Yellen, J. L. "Revolution and Evolution in Central Bank Communications," Remarks at University of California, Berkeley, Nov.13,2012.
[148]Zhang, Zhichao. "Real exchange rate misalignment in China:An empirical investigation,' Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol.29 (1),2001.
[149]Individual income tax for employees in Germany, http://www.expatica.com/de/finance business/tax/Individual-incoine-tax-for-emplovees-in-Genna nv-18488.html. last accessed on 17th Sep.2013.
[150]Statistisches Bundesamt, Rangfolge der Handelspartner im AuBenhandel der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Wiesbaden 2013, available at: https://www.destatis.d e/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/Aussenhand el/Handelspartner /Tabellen/RangfolgeHandelspartner.pdf? blob=publicationFile Last accessed at 8th Dec.2013.
[151]Euro Area (Eurozone) Terms of Trade of Goods (Percent Change) Statistics, Available at: http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/Euro-Area/Terms Trade Goods Percent Cha nge/last accessed at 31/10/2013.
[152]REER Data.Available at:http://www.bis.org/statistics/eer/last accessed at 1/11/2014
[153]Destatis. "Statistisches Bundesamt. Gesamtentwicklung des deutschen AuBenhandels ab 1950." Wiesbaden 2013.Available at: https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/Aussenhandel/Gesamtentwic klung/Tabellen/GesamtentwicklungAussenhandel.pdf? blob=publicationFile Last accessed on 8th Jan.2014.
[154]Data of Export and import prices of manufactured goods, http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/daily_update_e/monthly_xm_manuf_price_e.xls,last accessed at 1/11/2013.