大规模突发事件应急物资调度基本模型研究
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摘要
近年来,随着工业化及全球化进程的加剧、社会结构的变迁,各种大规模突发事件如地震、洪水等自然灾害、SARS、甲型H1N1流感等公共卫生事件等正越来越频繁地侵袭着我们生存的世界,影响、威胁着我们的生活甚至生命。大规模突发事件除了具有一般突发事件的特征以外,还具有受灾面积大、影响范围广、持续时间长、受灾人群多、应急需求点多、应急物资需求量大、应急物资供应不足的特点,这些特点决定了大规模突发事件应急物资的调度的复杂性远远超出一般规模的突发事件,不仅要考虑单出救点到多需求点的调度,还要考虑多出救点到多需求点的调度;不仅要考虑不同阶段应调度不同种类的应急物资,还要考虑不同阶段应采用不同的调度方式。本文首先对应急物资的全过程调度进行了定性研究、然后对应急物资初期、中期、末期三个阶段进行了较为具体的定量研究。
首先,目前有关应急物资调度的文献主要针对的是中小规模突发事件,对大规模突发事件研究尤其是对大规模突发事件全过程调度的研究不足,而这一研究是对大规模突发事件各阶段调度建模的前提。本文分析了大规模突发事件应急物资调度不同于中小规模突发事件应急物资调度的特征,根据这些特征以及大规模突发事件应急实例设计了大规模突发事件的全过程模型,对该模型作了阐述、剖析,并指出了使应急物资调度过程正常运行的运行保障;
其次,针对大规模突发事件的应急初期在常规筹措方式下应急物资供不应求的状况,结合各厂家的产能、成本和到达事发地的时间,以最小化应急时间和最小化应急成本为目标分量建立了多目标数学模型,研究应急物资的缺口部分在各厂家之间的合理分配以使不足的应急物资能更快、更经济地筹集齐全并运送到灾区,提出了基于二维欧式距离客观赋权的模糊算法,并用算例验证了模型和算法的有效性和可行性。
再次,研究了大规模突发事件在应急中期的物资调度模型。经过一段时间的应急物资筹集后,在应急中期应急物资供应基本能满足各需求点的需求,这时调度的任务是如何将应急物资从多应急供应点调度到多应急需求点。本文一方面以应急成本最小、延误时间最少为目标,先后建立了对应变量为确定型实数、不确定的区间数以及模糊三角数的单目标模型并进行求解;另一方面以应急成本和延误时间同时最少为目标建立了确定性多目标模型,利用逐步法和基于二维欧式距离客观赋权的模糊算法进行了求解,分析比较了两种方法的计算结果并得出如下结论:在应急延误时间为首要目标的情况下,应采用逐步法;而在以应急成本为首要目标的情况下,应采用二维欧式距离客观赋权的模糊算法。
最后,研究了大规模突发事件应急后期的物资调度。在大规模突发事件应急后期,快速消费品为主要的应急物资,而该阶段应急供应点较多、应急供应量较充足。本文基于大规模突发事件应急后期应急需求点对快速消费品的持续、动态需求的特点,结合每一时间段所需要单种或多种快速消费类应急物资的数量确定在各个时间点上应从哪一个或哪几个应急物资供应点调度相应数量的应急物资以使应急成本最小,建立了0-1混合整数规划模型,给出了拟多项式算法,并用算例验证了模型的有效性。
In recent years, with the advancement of the industrialization and globalization and the vicissitude of social structures, many kinds of large-scale natural disasters and public healthy events are attacking the world where we survive more and more frequently, on the same time, affecting and threatening our lifestyle or even lifecycle Besides the characteristics of common-scale emergencies, the large-scale emergencies have remarkable characteristics such as the big disaster areas, the broad influence scope, the long duration, the surprising disaster crowds, quite a few of emergency demand points, the big demand of emergency commodities and the insufficient provision of emergency commodities. The large-scale emergencies problems show more complexity degree than common-scale emergencies. Not only the distribution frow a single rescuing point to multi-demand points, but also the distribution frow multi-rescuing points to multi-demand points are considered, both different commodities type and different ways in different stage of distribution are considered too. This dissertation firstly conducts a qualitative study on the entire process distribution of emergency commodity, and then conducts a more concrete quantitative study on the initial period, the intermediate stage, the last stage of emergency commodities. The innovatory achievements are as follows:
Firstly, the related literatures on emergency commodities distribution focus on the small or middle scale of emergencies but the literatures on the large-scale emergencies, especially the entire process distribution are insufficiency. The premise of other researchs about various stages of distributing emergencies commodities is the foundation of thorough study. This dissertation analyzes the characteristic that the commodities distribution of large-scale emergencies is different from that of the middle or small scale emergencies, and designes the entire process model of large-scale emergencies according to these characteristics and related examples, then the elaboration of the model pointes out the movement safeguard which causes the distribution process of emergency commodities in a normal way.
Secondly, this dissertation establishes a multi-objective mathematics model according to the situation that the supply of emergency commodities can't meet their demand in initial emergency period. The model takes the least emergency time and cost as objectives and takes the producing capability of every factory, cost and time arriving to the disaster areas from these factories as variables. The dissertation studies how to rationally distribute scare emergency commodities between every factory when there are no enough emergency commodities, then the related factories have to be mobilized to produce emergency commodities and transport them to disaster areas economically and quickly. A mathematical model is established by considering producing capability of every factory, costs and time spenting from every factory to disaster areas and by taking the minimum emergency time and the minimum emergency cost as objective functions. An improved fuzzy mathematics algorithm is proposed, and an example is given to confirm the validity and feasibility of the model.
Thirdly, the dissertation estalishs the commodities distribution model in intermediate stage of large-scale emergencies. After a period of commodity collection, the supply of emergency commodities can meet basically the demand of various demand points in the emergency intermediate stage and the duty is how to distribute the emergency commodity from multi-supply centres to multi-demand centres. This dissertation takes the minimal emergency cost and the minimal delay time respectively, as well as integration both of them. The dissertation establishes some single-objective models and a multi-objective model when an emergency demand is a deterministic real number, an indefinite sector number or a fuzzy trigonometrical number. A fuzzy algorithm which is weighted in objectivity based on western-style distance of two demensional is presented and the example is given to confirm the validity and feasibility of the model.
Finally, the commodities distribution in the later stage of large-scale emergency is studied. In the later period of large-scale emergency, there are more candidated emergency supply points and the supply of emergency commodities is sufficient. At the same time, the fast consumption goods are main emergency commodities. Based on this characteristic of the continuous dynamical demand of emergency demand point to the fast consumption goods, the dissertation discusses how to determine supply points of emergency commodities and corresponding quantities of emergency commodities at every time point according to the demand of a kind or a few kinds of emergency commodities in each time section under the premise that there are many candidated emergency supply points. It establishes a 0-1 mixed integer-programming model in order to make the emergency cost smallest and gives the appropriate algorithm to confirm the validity of the model with the example.
首先,目前有关应急物资调度的文献主要针对的是中小规模突发事件,对大规模突发事件研究尤其是对大规模突发事件全过程调度的研究不足,而这一研究是对大规模突发事件各阶段调度建模的前提。本文分析了大规模突发事件应急物资调度不同于中小规模突发事件应急物资调度的特征,根据这些特征以及大规模突发事件应急实例设计了大规模突发事件的全过程模型,对该模型作了阐述、剖析,并指出了使应急物资调度过程正常运行的运行保障;
其次,针对大规模突发事件的应急初期在常规筹措方式下应急物资供不应求的状况,结合各厂家的产能、成本和到达事发地的时间,以最小化应急时间和最小化应急成本为目标分量建立了多目标数学模型,研究应急物资的缺口部分在各厂家之间的合理分配以使不足的应急物资能更快、更经济地筹集齐全并运送到灾区,提出了基于二维欧式距离客观赋权的模糊算法,并用算例验证了模型和算法的有效性和可行性。
再次,研究了大规模突发事件在应急中期的物资调度模型。经过一段时间的应急物资筹集后,在应急中期应急物资供应基本能满足各需求点的需求,这时调度的任务是如何将应急物资从多应急供应点调度到多应急需求点。本文一方面以应急成本最小、延误时间最少为目标,先后建立了对应变量为确定型实数、不确定的区间数以及模糊三角数的单目标模型并进行求解;另一方面以应急成本和延误时间同时最少为目标建立了确定性多目标模型,利用逐步法和基于二维欧式距离客观赋权的模糊算法进行了求解,分析比较了两种方法的计算结果并得出如下结论:在应急延误时间为首要目标的情况下,应采用逐步法;而在以应急成本为首要目标的情况下,应采用二维欧式距离客观赋权的模糊算法。
最后,研究了大规模突发事件应急后期的物资调度。在大规模突发事件应急后期,快速消费品为主要的应急物资,而该阶段应急供应点较多、应急供应量较充足。本文基于大规模突发事件应急后期应急需求点对快速消费品的持续、动态需求的特点,结合每一时间段所需要单种或多种快速消费类应急物资的数量确定在各个时间点上应从哪一个或哪几个应急物资供应点调度相应数量的应急物资以使应急成本最小,建立了0-1混合整数规划模型,给出了拟多项式算法,并用算例验证了模型的有效性。
In recent years, with the advancement of the industrialization and globalization and the vicissitude of social structures, many kinds of large-scale natural disasters and public healthy events are attacking the world where we survive more and more frequently, on the same time, affecting and threatening our lifestyle or even lifecycle Besides the characteristics of common-scale emergencies, the large-scale emergencies have remarkable characteristics such as the big disaster areas, the broad influence scope, the long duration, the surprising disaster crowds, quite a few of emergency demand points, the big demand of emergency commodities and the insufficient provision of emergency commodities. The large-scale emergencies problems show more complexity degree than common-scale emergencies. Not only the distribution frow a single rescuing point to multi-demand points, but also the distribution frow multi-rescuing points to multi-demand points are considered, both different commodities type and different ways in different stage of distribution are considered too. This dissertation firstly conducts a qualitative study on the entire process distribution of emergency commodity, and then conducts a more concrete quantitative study on the initial period, the intermediate stage, the last stage of emergency commodities. The innovatory achievements are as follows:
Firstly, the related literatures on emergency commodities distribution focus on the small or middle scale of emergencies but the literatures on the large-scale emergencies, especially the entire process distribution are insufficiency. The premise of other researchs about various stages of distributing emergencies commodities is the foundation of thorough study. This dissertation analyzes the characteristic that the commodities distribution of large-scale emergencies is different from that of the middle or small scale emergencies, and designes the entire process model of large-scale emergencies according to these characteristics and related examples, then the elaboration of the model pointes out the movement safeguard which causes the distribution process of emergency commodities in a normal way.
Secondly, this dissertation establishes a multi-objective mathematics model according to the situation that the supply of emergency commodities can't meet their demand in initial emergency period. The model takes the least emergency time and cost as objectives and takes the producing capability of every factory, cost and time arriving to the disaster areas from these factories as variables. The dissertation studies how to rationally distribute scare emergency commodities between every factory when there are no enough emergency commodities, then the related factories have to be mobilized to produce emergency commodities and transport them to disaster areas economically and quickly. A mathematical model is established by considering producing capability of every factory, costs and time spenting from every factory to disaster areas and by taking the minimum emergency time and the minimum emergency cost as objective functions. An improved fuzzy mathematics algorithm is proposed, and an example is given to confirm the validity and feasibility of the model.
Thirdly, the dissertation estalishs the commodities distribution model in intermediate stage of large-scale emergencies. After a period of commodity collection, the supply of emergency commodities can meet basically the demand of various demand points in the emergency intermediate stage and the duty is how to distribute the emergency commodity from multi-supply centres to multi-demand centres. This dissertation takes the minimal emergency cost and the minimal delay time respectively, as well as integration both of them. The dissertation establishes some single-objective models and a multi-objective model when an emergency demand is a deterministic real number, an indefinite sector number or a fuzzy trigonometrical number. A fuzzy algorithm which is weighted in objectivity based on western-style distance of two demensional is presented and the example is given to confirm the validity and feasibility of the model.
Finally, the commodities distribution in the later stage of large-scale emergency is studied. In the later period of large-scale emergency, there are more candidated emergency supply points and the supply of emergency commodities is sufficient. At the same time, the fast consumption goods are main emergency commodities. Based on this characteristic of the continuous dynamical demand of emergency demand point to the fast consumption goods, the dissertation discusses how to determine supply points of emergency commodities and corresponding quantities of emergency commodities at every time point according to the demand of a kind or a few kinds of emergency commodities in each time section under the premise that there are many candidated emergency supply points. It establishes a 0-1 mixed integer-programming model in order to make the emergency cost smallest and gives the appropriate algorithm to confirm the validity of the model with the example.
引文
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