上市公司收益质量测量研究
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摘要
上市公司的收益水平和收益质量是其所有利益相关者都十分关注的重要决策相关信息。仅依靠定性研究方法无法准确描述收益质量,确立定量评价收益质量的科学方法,是理论界长期追求的研究目标。结构方程方法能对显变量与潜变量之间的关系进行准确的定量描述,使其在揭示多因素路径依赖关系方面具有独特的优势。因此,本文试图利用结构方程原理解决收益质量的定量描述问题,以期完善会计信息质量评价理论,为利益相关者提供方法论工具,使其能够科学地解读上市公司收益质量信息,提高会计信息决策相关性,提高利益相关者管理决策的科学性。
关于收益质量的理论内涵,国内外至今尚未达成共识。本文从理论上界定了收益质量的相关概念,构建了收益质量研究的概念框架,并且指出概念框架的建立和相关理论范畴的准确阐释对界定研究内容、明确研究方法的必要性。重新界定了收益质量概念及其属性,认为构成相关概念体系的核心概念是收益质量,收益质量就是收益指标对公司价值的解释能力。收益质量应通过质和量两方面的属性揭示——收益的可靠性、现金保障性、持续性、成长性、安全性从质的方面反映收益质量,收益的获利性和收益的量级则从量的方面反映收益质量,其中,收益量级属性为本文首创提出。本文指出公司治理结构因素对收益质量的影响最关键,其他因素最终将通过公司治理结构因素体现出来,论证了各可控因素对收益质量的作用机理。
为了通过收益质量属性量化收益质量,必须先论证收益质量属性是否可以量化以及如何量化的问题。本文通过对收益质量各个属性的逻辑分析,论证了各个收益质量属性的量化因素,利用实证方法证明了量化结果具有可靠性,完成各个收益属性的定量描述。首先,证实收益质量可靠性是收益质量的一项特征,并且利用变异权重系数法量化这一质量特征,构造了可靠性量化指数测量模型;其次,利用面板数据对DKW三个理论模型进行检验,证实收益质量的现金保障性属性也可以量化,并且结合行业特性对模型进行了修正,指出现金流量充裕度是收益质量的重要特征之一,并利用变异权数法构造了现金保障性指数测量模型;第三,收益的持续能力综合表现为收益质量的持续性,从影响持续性来源要素角度测量该质量属性,构造了制造业收益质量持续性指数测量模型;第四,指出投资的获利目标决定了收益质量盈利性特征在所有收益质量属性中是最重要的属性,构造了制造业收益质量盈利指数量化模型;最后,研究了收益质量其它三个较重要的属性即收益的成长性、安全性以及量级属性如何量化表示问题,构造了相应的收益质量属性指数模型。本文的实证研究发现收益质量属性具有鲜明的行业特征。
鉴于本文所选择的各项收益质量属性分项量化指标只能对收益质量的某个侧面进行单项测量,从总体上综合测量收益质量时,各单项指标是否仍然有效,收益质量各属性的分项测量与综合测量的关系也需要证实。因此,在利用logistic回归方法对收益信息可靠性进行检验性验证基础上,利用因子分析法,进一步研究了收益质量的综合测量问题。研究结果表明,利用全部属性综合测量收益质量时,有必要精简分项测量指标;确认了各属性与收益质量之间的相关关系。通过逻辑分析和实证分析相结合方法,分析了公司治理结构对收益质量的影响,指出公司治理结构各主要要素与收益质量的关系,通过公司治理结构对收益质量影响的回归分析验证了逻辑分析所提出的假设。结果表明,股权结构以及由此产生的股权制衡关系与收益质量紧密相关,而董事会特征、管理层激励与收益质量则不具有显著相关关系。
在收益质量影响因素因子分析和路径依赖分析的基础上,本文提出了收益质量测量的概念模型、以结构方程表示的一般模型。利用制造业上市公司数据对一般模型进行了参数设定及估计检验,对模型的输出结果进行了理论解释,依据结果对模型的拟合度进行了检验,在此基础上对模型进行了优化,给出了最终的路径图模型,并对研究假设进行了检验。制造业的应用检验证明了本文构建的结构方程模型可以接受。
本文还结合制造业上市公司收益质量测量结果提出了提高收益质量的政策建议。
Income level and quality of the listed company are essential factors for decision making to all interest-related parties. It is not precise enough to describe income quality just by the qualitative method. Thus, the theoretical circle has been searching for a scientific quantitative method to appraise income quality. Structural equation method has the advantage in disclosing the dependent relationship of multi-factor paths, precisely making a quantitative description of the relationship between obvious and latent variables. This dissertation aims to solve the problem that describe income quality quatantively under the principle of structure equation, in order to perfect the appraisement and other theories about accounting information quality, interpret the income quality information of the listed companies for the interest related, improve the decision pertinence of accounting information, and offer methodology tools to managers for scientific decision-making.
Since there is no common understanding of the essence of income quality theory, the dissertation theoretically defines the related concepts of income quality and establish the concept structure of income quality, pointing out all these above is necessery for defining research concepts and methods. The study reestablishes income qulity and it’s attributes, proposing that the core concept is income quality, which is the ability of income indexes to explain the company value. Income quality should be disclosed qualitatively and quantitatively. It can be reflected by income reliability, cash indemnification, duration, growth and safety on the qualitative side and by income profitability and quantum on the quantitative side. The quantitative attribute is a creation of the dissertation, and the other attributes will be stated by the structure of company government. The study demonstrates the effect to income quality causing by the controlled attributes.
In order to quantitatively appraise the income quality by it’s attributes, it’s necessary demonstrate whether the income quality attributes can be measured and how to measure them. The study logically analysises the attributes of income quality, demonstrates factors of eache attributes, proves the reliability of quantified results by empirical research, and completes the quantitative description for every attribute of income quality. The dissertation firstly proves the reliability of the income quality to be one of its characteristics, which is measured by the mutant weight coefficient method. Secondly, the study tests three theory models of DKW by utilizing panel data, proves that the cash indemnificatory attribute of income quality can be measured, revises the models according to profession characteristics, demonstrates the cash flow abundant degree to be one of the important characteristics of the income quality, and establishes the cash indemnificatory measuring index model utilizing the mutant weight method. Thirdly, as the durative ability of income is generally reflected in the durative ability of the income quality, the durative index measuring model of income quality proposed for the manufacturing industry measures the quality characteristics from the angle of the factor which affects the durative source. Fourthly, the study proves that profitability aim of investment determines profitability characteristics to be the most important attributes, and constructs the profitability index measuring model of income quality for manufacturing industry. Finally, the research explores three other important attributes, growth, safety and quantum, and establishes the corresponding attribute index model of income quality.
Given that each selected quantitative index of income quality attribute can only measure item by item from a single side, it’s necessary to prove whether each index is needed to comprehensively measure the income quality and to identify the relationship between single measurement and comprehensive measurement. Therefore, after respectively measuring each income quality attribute, the dissertation further researches into the comprehensive measurement of the income quality with means of factor analysis The results demonstrates that it is necessary to predigest each single measuring index when utilizing all the attributes to measure income quality, and confirms the relationship between the attributes and the corresponding income quality. By combining the methods of logical analysis and demonstration analysis, the dissertation analyzes the influence of company government on income quality, states the relationship between the main factors of the company governance structure and income quality, and proves the hypothesis raised from the logical analysis by means of regressing the influence of company governance structure on income quality. The results proves that the share right structure and its balance relationship are closely related to the income quality, while there is no significant relationship between directorate characteristics, manager incentive and income quality.
Based on factor analysis and path dependence analysis of income quality, the dissertation establishes the concept model of income quality denotation and initial path model of structure equation. Using the data of listed companies in manufacturing industry, the dissertation sets the parameters and undertakes the estimation tests for the initial model. The dissertation also theoretically interprets the output of the initial model, tests the fitness degree of the initial model, and then revises the model, establishes the finial path model, and tests the hypothesis raised in the process of the research. The empirical tests in manufactory industry demonstrates the value of the structure equation modle established in this dissertation.
The dissertation further proposes some policies to improve income quality according to the measuring results of income quality for the manufacturing industry.
关于收益质量的理论内涵,国内外至今尚未达成共识。本文从理论上界定了收益质量的相关概念,构建了收益质量研究的概念框架,并且指出概念框架的建立和相关理论范畴的准确阐释对界定研究内容、明确研究方法的必要性。重新界定了收益质量概念及其属性,认为构成相关概念体系的核心概念是收益质量,收益质量就是收益指标对公司价值的解释能力。收益质量应通过质和量两方面的属性揭示——收益的可靠性、现金保障性、持续性、成长性、安全性从质的方面反映收益质量,收益的获利性和收益的量级则从量的方面反映收益质量,其中,收益量级属性为本文首创提出。本文指出公司治理结构因素对收益质量的影响最关键,其他因素最终将通过公司治理结构因素体现出来,论证了各可控因素对收益质量的作用机理。
为了通过收益质量属性量化收益质量,必须先论证收益质量属性是否可以量化以及如何量化的问题。本文通过对收益质量各个属性的逻辑分析,论证了各个收益质量属性的量化因素,利用实证方法证明了量化结果具有可靠性,完成各个收益属性的定量描述。首先,证实收益质量可靠性是收益质量的一项特征,并且利用变异权重系数法量化这一质量特征,构造了可靠性量化指数测量模型;其次,利用面板数据对DKW三个理论模型进行检验,证实收益质量的现金保障性属性也可以量化,并且结合行业特性对模型进行了修正,指出现金流量充裕度是收益质量的重要特征之一,并利用变异权数法构造了现金保障性指数测量模型;第三,收益的持续能力综合表现为收益质量的持续性,从影响持续性来源要素角度测量该质量属性,构造了制造业收益质量持续性指数测量模型;第四,指出投资的获利目标决定了收益质量盈利性特征在所有收益质量属性中是最重要的属性,构造了制造业收益质量盈利指数量化模型;最后,研究了收益质量其它三个较重要的属性即收益的成长性、安全性以及量级属性如何量化表示问题,构造了相应的收益质量属性指数模型。本文的实证研究发现收益质量属性具有鲜明的行业特征。
鉴于本文所选择的各项收益质量属性分项量化指标只能对收益质量的某个侧面进行单项测量,从总体上综合测量收益质量时,各单项指标是否仍然有效,收益质量各属性的分项测量与综合测量的关系也需要证实。因此,在利用logistic回归方法对收益信息可靠性进行检验性验证基础上,利用因子分析法,进一步研究了收益质量的综合测量问题。研究结果表明,利用全部属性综合测量收益质量时,有必要精简分项测量指标;确认了各属性与收益质量之间的相关关系。通过逻辑分析和实证分析相结合方法,分析了公司治理结构对收益质量的影响,指出公司治理结构各主要要素与收益质量的关系,通过公司治理结构对收益质量影响的回归分析验证了逻辑分析所提出的假设。结果表明,股权结构以及由此产生的股权制衡关系与收益质量紧密相关,而董事会特征、管理层激励与收益质量则不具有显著相关关系。
在收益质量影响因素因子分析和路径依赖分析的基础上,本文提出了收益质量测量的概念模型、以结构方程表示的一般模型。利用制造业上市公司数据对一般模型进行了参数设定及估计检验,对模型的输出结果进行了理论解释,依据结果对模型的拟合度进行了检验,在此基础上对模型进行了优化,给出了最终的路径图模型,并对研究假设进行了检验。制造业的应用检验证明了本文构建的结构方程模型可以接受。
本文还结合制造业上市公司收益质量测量结果提出了提高收益质量的政策建议。
Income level and quality of the listed company are essential factors for decision making to all interest-related parties. It is not precise enough to describe income quality just by the qualitative method. Thus, the theoretical circle has been searching for a scientific quantitative method to appraise income quality. Structural equation method has the advantage in disclosing the dependent relationship of multi-factor paths, precisely making a quantitative description of the relationship between obvious and latent variables. This dissertation aims to solve the problem that describe income quality quatantively under the principle of structure equation, in order to perfect the appraisement and other theories about accounting information quality, interpret the income quality information of the listed companies for the interest related, improve the decision pertinence of accounting information, and offer methodology tools to managers for scientific decision-making.
Since there is no common understanding of the essence of income quality theory, the dissertation theoretically defines the related concepts of income quality and establish the concept structure of income quality, pointing out all these above is necessery for defining research concepts and methods. The study reestablishes income qulity and it’s attributes, proposing that the core concept is income quality, which is the ability of income indexes to explain the company value. Income quality should be disclosed qualitatively and quantitatively. It can be reflected by income reliability, cash indemnification, duration, growth and safety on the qualitative side and by income profitability and quantum on the quantitative side. The quantitative attribute is a creation of the dissertation, and the other attributes will be stated by the structure of company government. The study demonstrates the effect to income quality causing by the controlled attributes.
In order to quantitatively appraise the income quality by it’s attributes, it’s necessary demonstrate whether the income quality attributes can be measured and how to measure them. The study logically analysises the attributes of income quality, demonstrates factors of eache attributes, proves the reliability of quantified results by empirical research, and completes the quantitative description for every attribute of income quality. The dissertation firstly proves the reliability of the income quality to be one of its characteristics, which is measured by the mutant weight coefficient method. Secondly, the study tests three theory models of DKW by utilizing panel data, proves that the cash indemnificatory attribute of income quality can be measured, revises the models according to profession characteristics, demonstrates the cash flow abundant degree to be one of the important characteristics of the income quality, and establishes the cash indemnificatory measuring index model utilizing the mutant weight method. Thirdly, as the durative ability of income is generally reflected in the durative ability of the income quality, the durative index measuring model of income quality proposed for the manufacturing industry measures the quality characteristics from the angle of the factor which affects the durative source. Fourthly, the study proves that profitability aim of investment determines profitability characteristics to be the most important attributes, and constructs the profitability index measuring model of income quality for manufacturing industry. Finally, the research explores three other important attributes, growth, safety and quantum, and establishes the corresponding attribute index model of income quality.
Given that each selected quantitative index of income quality attribute can only measure item by item from a single side, it’s necessary to prove whether each index is needed to comprehensively measure the income quality and to identify the relationship between single measurement and comprehensive measurement. Therefore, after respectively measuring each income quality attribute, the dissertation further researches into the comprehensive measurement of the income quality with means of factor analysis The results demonstrates that it is necessary to predigest each single measuring index when utilizing all the attributes to measure income quality, and confirms the relationship between the attributes and the corresponding income quality. By combining the methods of logical analysis and demonstration analysis, the dissertation analyzes the influence of company government on income quality, states the relationship between the main factors of the company governance structure and income quality, and proves the hypothesis raised from the logical analysis by means of regressing the influence of company governance structure on income quality. The results proves that the share right structure and its balance relationship are closely related to the income quality, while there is no significant relationship between directorate characteristics, manager incentive and income quality.
Based on factor analysis and path dependence analysis of income quality, the dissertation establishes the concept model of income quality denotation and initial path model of structure equation. Using the data of listed companies in manufacturing industry, the dissertation sets the parameters and undertakes the estimation tests for the initial model. The dissertation also theoretically interprets the output of the initial model, tests the fitness degree of the initial model, and then revises the model, establishes the finial path model, and tests the hypothesis raised in the process of the research. The empirical tests in manufactory industry demonstrates the value of the structure equation modle established in this dissertation.
The dissertation further proposes some policies to improve income quality according to the measuring results of income quality for the manufacturing industry.
引文
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48 Dechow, P.M. Accounting Earnings and Cash Flows as Measures of Firm Performance: The Role of Accounting Accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics .1994,(18): 3~42
49 Dechow,P., I.Dichev. The Quality of Accruals and Earnings: The Role of Accrual Estimation Errors. The Accounting Review . 2002,(77): 35~59
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53 Ecker, F., et al.A Returns-Based Representation of Earnings Quality. Accounting Review. 2006, 81(4): 749~780
54 Dechow, P,I.Dichev. The Quality of Accruals and Earnings: The Role of Accrual Estimation Errors. The Accounting Review. 2002,(77): 35~59
55 Francis, J., et al. The Market Pricing of Accruals Quality. Journal of Accounting and Economics. 2005, 39(2): 295~327
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67 Pittman J A , Steve Fortin. Auditor Choice and the Cost of Debt Cap ital for Newly Public Firms. Journal of Accounting and Economics. 2004, 37 (1): 113~ 136
68 Handa P , L inn S. Arbitrage Pricing with Estimation Risk. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. 1993, 28 (1):81~ 100
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72汪炜,蒋高峰.信息披露、透明度与资本成本.经济研究. 2004 (7): 107~ 114
73曾颖,陆正飞.信息披露质量与股权融资成本.经济研究. 2006, (2) : 69~ 79
74陆建桥.中国亏损上市公司盈余管理实证研究.会计研究. 1999,(9):25~ 35
75袁淳,王平. c会计盈余质量与价值相关性:来自深市的经验证据.经济理论与经济管理. 2005,5:36~39
76赵宇龙.我国证券市场“功能锁定”现象的实证研究.经济研究. 1999, 9: 56~63
77蒋慧,翟羽佳.我国上市公司收益质量分析——以黄山旅游和京东方科龙电器锦州港为例.会计之友. 2006,(9): 84~85
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81盖地,吴中华.中国上市公司收益质量分析.云南财经大学学报. 2007, (10): 11~17
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