全球电信业生产率测度分析及其对中国的启示
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摘要
当前，经济全球化加速发展，世界各个国家和地区之间经济贸易往来频繁、社会文化活动联系密切，作为国家和地区间交流活动的桥梁载体的电信服务，其基础设施地位更加突出。近年来，中国国际电信业务量保持平稳增长，网络能力有了进一步提高，有力支撑了中国经济社会发展，并促进中国的国际通信地位提升。虽然目前中国电信业发展势头强劲，整体行业服务水平有了很大提高，但是中国电信业与国外其他国家相比，不论是技术发展水平还是行业服务水平和效率状况，都存在很大差距。截至2011年底，中国宽带接入渗透率为11.6%，美国为27.4%，德国为33.0%，中国与OECD国家平均水平相比，大约低15%。此外，中国国民经济和社会发展进入第十二个五年规划期，是全面建设小康社会的关键时期，随着中国对外经济和外交活动的深入开展，对中国电信业发展也提出了更高的要求。因此，将中国电信业置于全球电信业大环境中，积极开展中国电信业与其他国家的对比研究，具有重要的理论指导意义。
因此，本文在大量研读国内外相关文献的基础上对相关理论与方法进行总结，在对全球电信业发展现状进行深入分析、对中国电信业现状进行国际比较的基础上，对全球109个国家2000-2011年电信业效率进行测度，并对电信业效率的影响因素进行建模分析研究，进而对全球电信业全要素生产率增长率进行测度研究。
本文主体部分按照从理论基础研究到现状分析、再到实证研究、最后得出对中国的启示的脉络展开，层层递进，具体包括以下几个方面：
1．相关理论与方法综述，该部分内容是全文的理论基础，为后续研究提供支撑。首先从生产率的内涵入手，阐明生产率的定义、发展及分类，并进一步说明生产率测度的一些方法；其次对规模报酬不变和可变的DEA模型及规模效率的计算进行说明；再次，介绍Malmquist指数方法，对面向产出和投入的Malmquist指数进行说明，并对Malmquist指数分解可得的技术进步、技术效率变化和规模效率变化进行解释；最后从外部因素和内部因素两个角度对生产率的影响因素进行分析。
2．全球电信业发展现状分析，该部分内容是后续实证研究的现实依据。首先明确电信业的基本概念，将本文所研究的电信业界定为——电信服务业，本文后续所有研究都将围绕电信服务业展开。其次，对全球电信业发展现状进行深入分析，从电信业总体形势、固定电话业务、移动电话业务、宽带接入业务、互联网发展、融合业务以及运营商发展现状等几个角度展开，在此基础上还对电信业发展方向进行预判。最后，在对中国电信业发展特点进行分析的基础上，将中国电信业与世界主要国家进行比较，从固定电话业务、移动电话业务、固定宽带业务、互联网个人用户、电信业务收入、固定资产投资等几个方面展开比较分析。
3．全球电信业效率测度研究，是本文实证研究的第一部分内容，是论文的核心部分之一。使用DEA方法中的CCR和BCC模型对全球电信业效率进行测度。首先，对研究的样本选择、指标选择及数据来源进行说明。其次，以全球109个国家和地区电信业2000-2011年的面板数据作为研究资料，对全球电信业综合效率、纯技术效率、规模效率进行测度研究，并从DEA有效国家、不同收入国家、不同区域国家、中国电信业国际比较等四个方面对实证研究结果进行详细分析。最后，对相关分析结果总结并得出结论。
4．全球电信业效率的影响因素研究，是本文实证研究的第二部分内容，是对前一部分实证研究的升华。利用2000-2011年的动态面板数据研究全球电信业效率的影响因素，首先提出实证研究的相关假设，并在假设的基础上建立电信业效率及其影响因素的相关计量模型；其次，对所采用样本、指标、数据来源进行详细说明；最后，基于前述计量模型和指标数据，对全球电信业综合效率、纯技术效率、规模效率的影响因素分别进行实证研究。
5．全球电信业生产率增长率研究，是本文实证研究的第三部分内容。使用Malmquist生产率指数来测度全球电信业2000-2011年TFP（全要素生产率）增长率。首先，对研究的样本选择、指标选择及数据来源进行说明。其次，以全球109个国家和地区电信业2000-2011年的面板数据作为研究资料，对全球电信业生产率增长率进行测度，并从全球、收入、地域、中国等角度对实证研究结果进行详细分析并得出结论。
6．全球电信业发展对中国的启示。本文的最终落脚点，首先从前面几章的研究中得到全球电信业发展对中国的启示，一是促进电信市场专门立法，二是不断深化具体业务上的市场化程度，三是继续提升技术创新和业务创新的能力，四是加速电信业向创新型产业的转变，五是有差别的开展区域信息化建设，六是鼓励民营资本进入电信业。其次，指出中国电信业发展的重点，一是加快宽带网络建设，二是促进国际通信发展，三是建设信息资源体系。
本文对于全球及中国电信业生产率的研究较为深入，对于指导中国电信业发展具有一定的理论和现实意义，但是由于作者研究时间有限、能获得的可供研究的资源有限，本文研究还是存在诸多不足之处。作者在对研究内容、方法、过程、结论等进行进一步思考后，认为后续研究可以从电信业与国民经济其他行业的关系，电信技术进步、电信投资对经济增长的贡献，以及电信技术轨道变迁的内在机理等方面进一步展开。
At present, economic globalization develop rapidly, economic and trade exchangesbetween the various countries and regions of the world frequently, social and culturalactivities relate closely, as a bridge of communication activities between the countries andregions, telecommunication services, more prominent its infrastructure. In recent years,China's international telecommunication business maintained steady growth, further improvethe network capacity, it is a strong support for China's economic and social development,and it promotes China's international status of communication. Although at present China'stelecommunications industry development momentum, the overall industry has made greatimprove service levels, but compared with other foreign countries, the Chinese telecomservice both technology development level and industry level and efficiency, is a big gap, bythe end of2011, China's broadband penetration is11.6%, with27.4%in America, Germanyat33.0%, China and OECD countries, compared to average about15%less. In addition, theChina national economic and social development into the twelfth five-year plan period, is thecomprehensive construction well-off society's key period, along with the in-depthdevelopment of China's foreign economic and diplomatic activities, and also put forwardhigher requirements on the development of Chinese telecom industry. Therefore, it hasimportant theoretical guiding significance to put Chinese telecom in the globaltelecommunications industry environment, and carry out comparative study with othercountries actively.
Therefore, based on a large number of reading, combing and sorting about relatedliterature at home and abroad, insisting on the principle of combining qualitative researchand quantitative research, combining empirical study and normative study, this paper bringin the nonparametric measure method to the study of efficiency and productivity intelecommunications industry, using telecom data of2000-2011in109countries and regions,to research the technical efficiency with its influencing factors and productivity growth rateof telecommunications industry.
1. Review of relevant theories and methods. Firstly, it starts with the connotation ofproductivity, clarifies the definition, development and classification of productivity, andexplains some methods for productivity measurement; Secondly, it describes constant andvariable DEA model of scale reward and the calculation of the efficiency of scale. Thirdly,Malmquist index method was introduced, the output and input oriented Malmquist index was described, Malmquist index decomposition of technical progress and technical efficiencyand scale efficiency changes was explained; Lastly, it analyses the influence factors fromexternal and internal factors on productivity.
2. Analysis of the current situation of the global telecommunication industrydevelopment. Firstly, to make clear the basic concept of telecommunication industry, Thetelecommunication industry in this paper is defined as the telecoms services, all of theresearch will focus on the telecom service industry expansion in behind. Secondly, analyzesthe status of the development of the global telecom industry thoroughly, analyzes from theoverall situation, fixed telephone service, mobile phone service, broadband access services,Internet development, integration and development situation of business operators in thetelecommunications industry. And then, anticipate the direction of development of thetelecommunications industry. Lastly, on the base of analyzing the characteristics of Chinatelecom industry development, and will compare China telecom industry with the majorcountries of the world, makes comparative analysis from fixed telephone, mobile phonebusiness, fixed broadband business, individual Internet users, telecom business income andso on.
3. Study on the measurement of efficiency of global telecom industry. This papermeasures the global telecommunications industry efficiency by using DEA method in theCCR and BCC model. Firstly, describes the selection of the study sample, the choice ofindex and data sources. Secondly, makes the panel data of the telecommunications industryin109countries and regions worldwide2000-2011years as the research data, make measureresearch on the comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency, scale efficiency of theglobal telecommunications industry. Analyzes comprehensively on the results of empiricalresearch from the four aspects of DEA in different areas, different effective national incomecountries, countries, China telecom industry international comparison. Lastly, to summarizeand conclude the results of correlation analysis.
4. Study on the influence factors of the global telecommunications industry efficiency.To study the influencing factors on the efficiency of the global telecom industry by usingdynamic panel data during2000-2011. Firstly, proposes the hypotheses of empirical research,to establish econometric model of the efficiency and influence factors in telecom industry;Secondly, to describe the sample, index, data source in detail; Lastly, based on themeasurement model and index data, make empirical study on comprehensive efficiency, puretechnical efficiency, scale efficiency of factors affecting the global telecommunicationsindustry.
5. Study on the growth rate of the global telecommunications industry productivity. Tomeasure TFP (Total factor productivity) growth rate from2000to2011by using theMalmquist productivity index. Firstly, to describe the selection of the study sample, thechoice of index and data sources; Secondly, makes the panel data of the telecommunicationsindustry in109countries and regions worldwide2000-2011years as the research data, tomeasure the productivity of the global telecommunications industry growth rate, makeanalysis and conclusion on the empirical research results from the global, income, region,China.
6. Enlightenment to China which is final foothold of this paper. First of all, this paperpoints out the enlightenment to China from the previous study of global telecommunicationsindustry development, one is to promote a special legislation of telecom market, two is thedeepening marketization on the specific business, three is continuously to promote the abilityof technology innovation and business innovation, four is to accelerate to creative industriesof telecommunication, five is to carry out regional informatization differently, six is toencourage private capital into the industry. Secondly, this paper points out that the key pointof the telecommunications industry development in China, one is to speed up the broadbandnetwork construction, two is to promote the development of international communication,three is to construct information resources system.
This article has certain theoretical and practical significance, but this study still hasmany deficiencies because of the limitation of research time and resources. From thethinking of research direction, research objects, research process and research results, theauthor thinks if comparative research of telecom industry investment, industry developmentand the relationship between economic growth, and the industry technological progress,technological innovation, technology standardization, technological change can be furtherstudied in-depth.
因此，本文在大量研读国内外相关文献的基础上对相关理论与方法进行总结，在对全球电信业发展现状进行深入分析、对中国电信业现状进行国际比较的基础上，对全球109个国家2000-2011年电信业效率进行测度，并对电信业效率的影响因素进行建模分析研究，进而对全球电信业全要素生产率增长率进行测度研究。
本文主体部分按照从理论基础研究到现状分析、再到实证研究、最后得出对中国的启示的脉络展开，层层递进，具体包括以下几个方面：
1．相关理论与方法综述，该部分内容是全文的理论基础，为后续研究提供支撑。首先从生产率的内涵入手，阐明生产率的定义、发展及分类，并进一步说明生产率测度的一些方法；其次对规模报酬不变和可变的DEA模型及规模效率的计算进行说明；再次，介绍Malmquist指数方法，对面向产出和投入的Malmquist指数进行说明，并对Malmquist指数分解可得的技术进步、技术效率变化和规模效率变化进行解释；最后从外部因素和内部因素两个角度对生产率的影响因素进行分析。
2．全球电信业发展现状分析，该部分内容是后续实证研究的现实依据。首先明确电信业的基本概念，将本文所研究的电信业界定为——电信服务业，本文后续所有研究都将围绕电信服务业展开。其次，对全球电信业发展现状进行深入分析，从电信业总体形势、固定电话业务、移动电话业务、宽带接入业务、互联网发展、融合业务以及运营商发展现状等几个角度展开，在此基础上还对电信业发展方向进行预判。最后，在对中国电信业发展特点进行分析的基础上，将中国电信业与世界主要国家进行比较，从固定电话业务、移动电话业务、固定宽带业务、互联网个人用户、电信业务收入、固定资产投资等几个方面展开比较分析。
3．全球电信业效率测度研究，是本文实证研究的第一部分内容，是论文的核心部分之一。使用DEA方法中的CCR和BCC模型对全球电信业效率进行测度。首先，对研究的样本选择、指标选择及数据来源进行说明。其次，以全球109个国家和地区电信业2000-2011年的面板数据作为研究资料，对全球电信业综合效率、纯技术效率、规模效率进行测度研究，并从DEA有效国家、不同收入国家、不同区域国家、中国电信业国际比较等四个方面对实证研究结果进行详细分析。最后，对相关分析结果总结并得出结论。
4．全球电信业效率的影响因素研究，是本文实证研究的第二部分内容，是对前一部分实证研究的升华。利用2000-2011年的动态面板数据研究全球电信业效率的影响因素，首先提出实证研究的相关假设，并在假设的基础上建立电信业效率及其影响因素的相关计量模型；其次，对所采用样本、指标、数据来源进行详细说明；最后，基于前述计量模型和指标数据，对全球电信业综合效率、纯技术效率、规模效率的影响因素分别进行实证研究。
5．全球电信业生产率增长率研究，是本文实证研究的第三部分内容。使用Malmquist生产率指数来测度全球电信业2000-2011年TFP（全要素生产率）增长率。首先，对研究的样本选择、指标选择及数据来源进行说明。其次，以全球109个国家和地区电信业2000-2011年的面板数据作为研究资料，对全球电信业生产率增长率进行测度，并从全球、收入、地域、中国等角度对实证研究结果进行详细分析并得出结论。
6．全球电信业发展对中国的启示。本文的最终落脚点，首先从前面几章的研究中得到全球电信业发展对中国的启示，一是促进电信市场专门立法，二是不断深化具体业务上的市场化程度，三是继续提升技术创新和业务创新的能力，四是加速电信业向创新型产业的转变，五是有差别的开展区域信息化建设，六是鼓励民营资本进入电信业。其次，指出中国电信业发展的重点，一是加快宽带网络建设，二是促进国际通信发展，三是建设信息资源体系。
本文对于全球及中国电信业生产率的研究较为深入，对于指导中国电信业发展具有一定的理论和现实意义，但是由于作者研究时间有限、能获得的可供研究的资源有限，本文研究还是存在诸多不足之处。作者在对研究内容、方法、过程、结论等进行进一步思考后，认为后续研究可以从电信业与国民经济其他行业的关系，电信技术进步、电信投资对经济增长的贡献，以及电信技术轨道变迁的内在机理等方面进一步展开。
At present, economic globalization develop rapidly, economic and trade exchangesbetween the various countries and regions of the world frequently, social and culturalactivities relate closely, as a bridge of communication activities between the countries andregions, telecommunication services, more prominent its infrastructure. In recent years,China's international telecommunication business maintained steady growth, further improvethe network capacity, it is a strong support for China's economic and social development,and it promotes China's international status of communication. Although at present China'stelecommunications industry development momentum, the overall industry has made greatimprove service levels, but compared with other foreign countries, the Chinese telecomservice both technology development level and industry level and efficiency, is a big gap, bythe end of2011, China's broadband penetration is11.6%, with27.4%in America, Germanyat33.0%, China and OECD countries, compared to average about15%less. In addition, theChina national economic and social development into the twelfth five-year plan period, is thecomprehensive construction well-off society's key period, along with the in-depthdevelopment of China's foreign economic and diplomatic activities, and also put forwardhigher requirements on the development of Chinese telecom industry. Therefore, it hasimportant theoretical guiding significance to put Chinese telecom in the globaltelecommunications industry environment, and carry out comparative study with othercountries actively.
Therefore, based on a large number of reading, combing and sorting about relatedliterature at home and abroad, insisting on the principle of combining qualitative researchand quantitative research, combining empirical study and normative study, this paper bringin the nonparametric measure method to the study of efficiency and productivity intelecommunications industry, using telecom data of2000-2011in109countries and regions,to research the technical efficiency with its influencing factors and productivity growth rateof telecommunications industry.
1. Review of relevant theories and methods. Firstly, it starts with the connotation ofproductivity, clarifies the definition, development and classification of productivity, andexplains some methods for productivity measurement; Secondly, it describes constant andvariable DEA model of scale reward and the calculation of the efficiency of scale. Thirdly,Malmquist index method was introduced, the output and input oriented Malmquist index was described, Malmquist index decomposition of technical progress and technical efficiencyand scale efficiency changes was explained; Lastly, it analyses the influence factors fromexternal and internal factors on productivity.
2. Analysis of the current situation of the global telecommunication industrydevelopment. Firstly, to make clear the basic concept of telecommunication industry, Thetelecommunication industry in this paper is defined as the telecoms services, all of theresearch will focus on the telecom service industry expansion in behind. Secondly, analyzesthe status of the development of the global telecom industry thoroughly, analyzes from theoverall situation, fixed telephone service, mobile phone service, broadband access services,Internet development, integration and development situation of business operators in thetelecommunications industry. And then, anticipate the direction of development of thetelecommunications industry. Lastly, on the base of analyzing the characteristics of Chinatelecom industry development, and will compare China telecom industry with the majorcountries of the world, makes comparative analysis from fixed telephone, mobile phonebusiness, fixed broadband business, individual Internet users, telecom business income andso on.
3. Study on the measurement of efficiency of global telecom industry. This papermeasures the global telecommunications industry efficiency by using DEA method in theCCR and BCC model. Firstly, describes the selection of the study sample, the choice ofindex and data sources. Secondly, makes the panel data of the telecommunications industryin109countries and regions worldwide2000-2011years as the research data, make measureresearch on the comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency, scale efficiency of theglobal telecommunications industry. Analyzes comprehensively on the results of empiricalresearch from the four aspects of DEA in different areas, different effective national incomecountries, countries, China telecom industry international comparison. Lastly, to summarizeand conclude the results of correlation analysis.
4. Study on the influence factors of the global telecommunications industry efficiency.To study the influencing factors on the efficiency of the global telecom industry by usingdynamic panel data during2000-2011. Firstly, proposes the hypotheses of empirical research,to establish econometric model of the efficiency and influence factors in telecom industry;Secondly, to describe the sample, index, data source in detail; Lastly, based on themeasurement model and index data, make empirical study on comprehensive efficiency, puretechnical efficiency, scale efficiency of factors affecting the global telecommunicationsindustry.
5. Study on the growth rate of the global telecommunications industry productivity. Tomeasure TFP (Total factor productivity) growth rate from2000to2011by using theMalmquist productivity index. Firstly, to describe the selection of the study sample, thechoice of index and data sources; Secondly, makes the panel data of the telecommunicationsindustry in109countries and regions worldwide2000-2011years as the research data, tomeasure the productivity of the global telecommunications industry growth rate, makeanalysis and conclusion on the empirical research results from the global, income, region,China.
6. Enlightenment to China which is final foothold of this paper. First of all, this paperpoints out the enlightenment to China from the previous study of global telecommunicationsindustry development, one is to promote a special legislation of telecom market, two is thedeepening marketization on the specific business, three is continuously to promote the abilityof technology innovation and business innovation, four is to accelerate to creative industriesof telecommunication, five is to carry out regional informatization differently, six is toencourage private capital into the industry. Secondly, this paper points out that the key pointof the telecommunications industry development in China, one is to speed up the broadbandnetwork construction, two is to promote the development of international communication,three is to construct information resources system.
This article has certain theoretical and practical significance, but this study still hasmany deficiencies because of the limitation of research time and resources. From thethinking of research direction, research objects, research process and research results, theauthor thinks if comparative research of telecom industry investment, industry developmentand the relationship between economic growth, and the industry technological progress,technological innovation, technology standardization, technological change can be furtherstudied in-depth.
引文
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