突发事件下供应链生产规模优化与市场需求扩散模型研究
|
摘要
随着经济的快速发展，供应链越来越容易受到突发事件的影响，突发事件会导致供应链不能正常进行交易，因此，如何提高突发事件情况下的供应链的管理能力尤为重要。本文面向突发事件对供应链生产规模进行优化，并研究了突发事件后市场需求扩散的过程，在以下几个方面取得了创新性成果：
1）在突发事件发生前供应链网络的应急管理中，采用拓扑理论研究供应链网络的均衡。在无标度网络拓扑结构研究的基础上，将各节点之间的流量大小作为网络中各边的权重，在T映射和F映射概念的基础上提出了供应链网络均衡的搜寻算法，分析了供应链网络对于去点与去边表现出的不同鲁棒性能，并根据突发事件发生情况，对供应链网络的鲁棒性能进行了优化。
2）在突发事件前供应链的应急管理中，对传统的信息扩散理论中的窗宽进行改进，使信息扩散理论可以应用于样本点较少且分别来源于不同时期数据时的预测，并将改进窗宽后的信息扩散方法应用于应急需求量的预测。为遏制需求量在短期内激增，提出了基于提前订购期的价格折扣协调机制，理论和算例分析表明，制造商和零售商可以在提前订购期策略下达到协调。
3）在突发事件发生后供应链的应急管理中，对供应链网络的消费市场、生产规模以及运输路径分别受到影响时的恢复过程进行了优化。研究了突发事件发生后需求量呈双Logistic增长时的生产规模与产量决策问题，建立了生产规模与产量最优决策的动态模型，给出了最优的生产规模大小和产量。对生产规模受突发事件影响的情形，建立了两个制造商生产规模恢复的博弈模型，并通过算例给出了制造商在不同博弈情形时的生产规模恢复路径。
4）对于突发事件后市场需求在信息传递过程中具有扩散行为的情形进行了分析，采用二维非线性动力系统模拟了信息传递及市场需求量扩散的过程，直观地显示出市场需求量扩散过程的混沌特征。对于短缺需求在疾病传染、信息扩散等各方面因素的影响下呈现几何级数增长的情形，建立了短缺需求的变动模型，得到了制造商的产量与市场需求量的演化路径。
With the rapid development of economy, supply chains are more vulnerableto disruptions. Therefore, how to improve management ability of supply chainis particularly important. This paper presents capacity optimization and demanddifusion models of supply chain under disruptions. The main contributions of thisdissertation include:
1) Before disruption in supply chain network occurs, this paper adopts topolo-gy theory in searching steady state. Based on the study of scale-free network, fowsbetween each node are observed as the weight of each edge. Concepts of T map-ping and F mapping are presented and used in the steady state search algorithm.Performance of the robustness and recovery robustness of supply chain network areanalyzed through node reducing and edge reducing. Based on the scale forecast ofdisruption events, the robustness of supply chain network is optimized.
2) Before disruption in supply chain occurs, this paper improves the bandwidthin the traditional information difusion theory to make it better in its applicationto emergency demand forecast with less cross time samplings. To curb the surgein demand in the short term, an order lead time discounting policy was proposed.Theory and numerical examples show that supply chain can be coordinated withthis policy.
3)In the emergency management of supply chain after disruption events occurs,this paper optimized the recovery process of market demand, production capacity,and transportation route. Production capacity and quantity decision problems werestudied with double Logistic growth of market demand after disruption event occurs.Production capacity and quantity optimization models were established and optimalvalues were obtained. In the situation of production capability destroyed, recoverygame models between two manufactures were analyzed, optimal production capacityunder each game model was obtained through an example.
4) Demand difusion behavior with information transfer was analyzed after dis-ruption event occurs. Two-dimensional nonlinear dynamic system is established insimulating the process of information transfer and demand difusion. Chaotic char-acteristics are visually displayed through this system. In the situation of shortage demand difusion and quantity of shortage shows geometric growth, dynamic modelof shortage demand is established, and evolution path of production quantity andmarket demand are obtained.
1）在突发事件发生前供应链网络的应急管理中，采用拓扑理论研究供应链网络的均衡。在无标度网络拓扑结构研究的基础上，将各节点之间的流量大小作为网络中各边的权重，在T映射和F映射概念的基础上提出了供应链网络均衡的搜寻算法，分析了供应链网络对于去点与去边表现出的不同鲁棒性能，并根据突发事件发生情况，对供应链网络的鲁棒性能进行了优化。
2）在突发事件前供应链的应急管理中，对传统的信息扩散理论中的窗宽进行改进，使信息扩散理论可以应用于样本点较少且分别来源于不同时期数据时的预测，并将改进窗宽后的信息扩散方法应用于应急需求量的预测。为遏制需求量在短期内激增，提出了基于提前订购期的价格折扣协调机制，理论和算例分析表明，制造商和零售商可以在提前订购期策略下达到协调。
3）在突发事件发生后供应链的应急管理中，对供应链网络的消费市场、生产规模以及运输路径分别受到影响时的恢复过程进行了优化。研究了突发事件发生后需求量呈双Logistic增长时的生产规模与产量决策问题，建立了生产规模与产量最优决策的动态模型，给出了最优的生产规模大小和产量。对生产规模受突发事件影响的情形，建立了两个制造商生产规模恢复的博弈模型，并通过算例给出了制造商在不同博弈情形时的生产规模恢复路径。
4）对于突发事件后市场需求在信息传递过程中具有扩散行为的情形进行了分析，采用二维非线性动力系统模拟了信息传递及市场需求量扩散的过程，直观地显示出市场需求量扩散过程的混沌特征。对于短缺需求在疾病传染、信息扩散等各方面因素的影响下呈现几何级数增长的情形，建立了短缺需求的变动模型，得到了制造商的产量与市场需求量的演化路径。
With the rapid development of economy, supply chains are more vulnerableto disruptions. Therefore, how to improve management ability of supply chainis particularly important. This paper presents capacity optimization and demanddifusion models of supply chain under disruptions. The main contributions of thisdissertation include:
1) Before disruption in supply chain network occurs, this paper adopts topolo-gy theory in searching steady state. Based on the study of scale-free network, fowsbetween each node are observed as the weight of each edge. Concepts of T map-ping and F mapping are presented and used in the steady state search algorithm.Performance of the robustness and recovery robustness of supply chain network areanalyzed through node reducing and edge reducing. Based on the scale forecast ofdisruption events, the robustness of supply chain network is optimized.
2) Before disruption in supply chain occurs, this paper improves the bandwidthin the traditional information difusion theory to make it better in its applicationto emergency demand forecast with less cross time samplings. To curb the surgein demand in the short term, an order lead time discounting policy was proposed.Theory and numerical examples show that supply chain can be coordinated withthis policy.
3)In the emergency management of supply chain after disruption events occurs,this paper optimized the recovery process of market demand, production capacity,and transportation route. Production capacity and quantity decision problems werestudied with double Logistic growth of market demand after disruption event occurs.Production capacity and quantity optimization models were established and optimalvalues were obtained. In the situation of production capability destroyed, recoverygame models between two manufactures were analyzed, optimal production capacityunder each game model was obtained through an example.
4) Demand difusion behavior with information transfer was analyzed after dis-ruption event occurs. Two-dimensional nonlinear dynamic system is established insimulating the process of information transfer and demand difusion. Chaotic char-acteristics are visually displayed through this system. In the situation of shortage demand difusion and quantity of shortage shows geometric growth, dynamic modelof shortage demand is established, and evolution path of production quantity andmarket demand are obtained.
引文
[1] MWagner S, Neshat N. Assessing the vulnerability of supply chains usinggraph theory [J]. Int. J.Production Economics.2010(126):121–129.
[2]张薇.突发事件应急物资储备模型探究[J].商场现代化.2009,5:130–131.
[3]于辉.供应链合作与企业应急管理[J].重庆大学出版社.2009.
[4]朱子华,李严峰.供应链中突发事件的分类、分级与分期研究[C]. In中国物流学术前沿报告.2006-2007:74–80.
[5] Vos F, Rodriguez J, Below R, et al. Annual Disaster Statistical Review2009:The Numbers and Trends [M]. Brussels: Brussels: CRED,2010.
[6] Narasimhan R, Talluri S. Perspectives on risk management in supply chains[J]. Journal of Operations Management.2009(27):114–118.
[7] Knemeyer A M, Zinn W, Eroglu C. Proactive planning for catastrophic eventsin supply chains [J]. Journal of Operations Management.2009(27):141–153.
[8]罗晓宁.企业应急产品供应链设计策略[J].物流科技.2008,5:20–23.
[9]李湖生.应急管理阶段理论新模型研究[J].中国安全科学技术.2010,10:18–22.
[10]余杰.供应链柔性的系统分析[J].当代经理人.2006,21:804–805.
[11] Chiou S-W. A non-smooth optimization model for a two-tiered supply chainnetwork [J]. Information Sciences.2007,177:5754–5762.
[12] June Dong D Z, Nagurney A. A supply chain network equilibrium model withrandom demands [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2004,156:194–212.
[13] Ostrovsky, Michael. Stability in supply chain networks [J]. The American E-conomic Review.2008,98(3):897–923.
[14] Jackson M O, van den Nouweland A. Strongly stable networks [J]. Games andEconomic Behavior.2005,51(2):420–444.
[15] Nagurney A, Dong J. Supernetworks: Decision-Making for the InformationAge [J]. Edward Elgar Publishers.2002.
[16] Nagurney A, Cruz J. Supply chain networks, electronic commerce, and supplyside and demand side risk [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2005,164(8):120–142.
[17] Guang fen Yang Z p W, qiang Li X. The optimization of the closed-loop supplychain network [J]. Transportation Research Part E.2009,45(8):16–28.
[18] Wakolbinger T, Nagurney A. Dynamic supernetworks for the integration ofsocial networks and supply chains with electronic commerce: modeling andanalysis of buyer-seller relationships with computations [J]. Netnomics.2004,6:153–185.
[19] Nagurney A. Supply chain network design under proft maximization andoligopolistic competition [J]. Transportation Research Part E.2010,46(8):281–294.
[20] Anna Nagurney M Y, Qiang Q. Supply chain network design for critical needswith outsourcing [J]. Regional Science.2011,90(1).
[21]辛玉红.供应链系统鲁棒性研究[D].北京:北京信息控制研究所,2008.
[22] June Dong D Z, Nagurney A. A supply chain network equilibrium model withrandom demands [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2004,156:194–212.
[23] Nagurney A. A system-optimization perspective for supply chain network in-tegration: The horizontal merger case [J]. Transportation Research Part E.2009,45:1–15.
[24] Walid Klibi W K, Guitouni A. The design of robust value-creating supply chainnetworks: A critical review [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2010,203(2):283–293.
[25] Nagurney A. Managing Supply Chain Risk and Vulnerability: Tools andMethods for Supply Chain Decision Makers [M]. London: London, England:Springer:91–111.
[26] Chiang C. A note on optimal policies for periodic inventory system with e-mergency orders [J]. Computers&Operations Research.2001,28:93–103.
[27] BCGiri T. Cost-efective ordering policies for inventory systems with emer-gency order [J]. Computers&Industrial Engineering.2009,57:1336–1341.
[28]顾小豹,杨西龙,彭桢晶.应急需求[J].物流科技.2009,12:54–56.
[29]郑宇.城市防震减灾能力评价指标与应急需求研究[D].南京:南京工业大学,2003.
[30] Selda Taskin E J J. Inventory decisions for emergency supplies based on hur-ricane count predictions [J]. Int. J. Production Economics.2001,126:66–75.
[31]闫文周,朱亮亮,周继锋,赵平.基于熵理论的信息扩散系数确定[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版).2009,4:269–272.
[32]杨旭,李春晨.基于信息扩散理论的火灾风险评估模型研究及其应用[J].工业安全与环保.2010,1:42–43.
[33]黄崇福,王家鼎.模糊信息优化处理技术及其应用[J].北京：北京航空航天大学出版社.1995:60–61.
[34]张成才,陈继祖,叶伟,周勇.基于信息扩散理论的河南省区域干旱等级模糊综合评价[J].郑州大学学报(工学版).2010,4:56–60.
[35]杨旭,李春晨.基于信息扩散理论的火灾风险评估模型研究及其应用[J].工业安全与环保.2010,1:42–43.
[36]刘引鸽,缪启龙,高庆九.基于信息扩散理论的气象灾害风险评价方法[J].气象科学.2005,1:84–89.
[37]史东建,陈荣税.基于信息扩散近似推理的年径流量预测模型[J].中州大学学报.2010,4:110–113.
[38]黄强,原文林,陈晓楠,张洪波,王义民.基于信息扩散近似推理的年降水量预测模型[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版).2009,2:213–219.
[39]庞庆华.收益共享契约下三级供应链应对突发事件的协调研究[J].中国管理科学.2010,2:1–6.
[40]傅俊辉,张卫国,梅琴,杜倩.零售商竞争的供应链对突发事件的协调应对[J].工业工程与管理.2010,15:29–34.
[41]于辉,陈剑,于刚.协调供应链如何应对突发事件[J].系统工程理论与实践.2005,7:9–16.
[42] Lusa C A n N, A. A multistage scenario optimization procedure to plan an-nualized working hours under demand uncertainty [J]. International Journalof Production Economics.2008,113:957–968.
[43] Ray E, S. Customer lead time management when both demand and price arelead time sensitive [J]. European Journal of Operational research.2004,153:769–781.
[44] Chiang J G, C. Optimal control policies for a periodic review inventory systemwith emergency orders [J]. Naval Research Logistics.1998,45:187–204.
[45] Moinzadeh K C, Schmidt. An (s-1,s) inventory system with emergency orders.Operations Research [J]. Naval Research Logistics.1991,39:308–321.
[46] Johansen T A, SG. An inventory model with poisson demands and emergencyorders [J]. International Journal of Production Economics.1998,56:275–289.
[47] Moinzadeh N S, K. A continuous review model for an inventory system withtwo supply modes [J]. Management Science.1988,34:761–773.
[48] Bylka S. Turnpike plicies for periodic review inventory model with emergencyorders [J]. International Journal of production economics.2005,93-94:357–373.
[49] Axsater S. A heuristic for triggering emergency orders in an inventory system[J]. European journal of operational Research.2007,176:880–891.
[50] SSodhi C, MSTang. Modeling supply-chain planning under demand uncer-tainty using stochastic programming: A survey motivated by asset-liabilitymanagement [J]. International Journal of Production Economics.2009,121:728–738.
[51] Fisher R A, M. Reducing the cost of demand uncertainty through accurateresponse to early sales [J]. Opeartions Research.1996,44:87–99.
[52] Zhao X J C J, Xie. The value of early order commitment in a two-level supplychain [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2007,180:194–21.
[53] Gilbert H R, SM. Supply chain benefts from advanced customer commitments[J]. Journal of Operations Management.1999,18:61–73.
[54] MRyan S. Capacity expansion for random exponential demand growth withlead times [J]. Management Science.2004,50:740–748.
[55] Hill K I, A. Models for optimal lead time reproduction [J]. Production andOperations Management.1992,1:185–197.
[56] Ritchken H, Tapiero C. Contingent claims contracting for purchasing decisionsin inventory management [J]. Operations Research.1986,34(6):864–870.
[57] Burnetas A, Ritchken P. Option pricing with downward-sloping demandcurves: The case of supply chain options.[J]. Management Science.2005,51(4):566–580.
[58] Fang F, Whinston A. Option contracts and capacity management-Enablingprice discrimination under demand uncertainty [J]. Production and Opera-tions Management Society.2007,16(1):125–137.
[59] Barnes-Schuster D, Bassok Y, Anupindi R. Coordination and fexibility in sup-ply contracts with options [R].2000.
[60] Cheng F, Ettl M, Lin G Y, et al. Flexible supply contracts via options [R].2003.
[61]吴建祖,刘锦.不确定条件下VMI供应链协调的期权合约[J].系统工程.2011(3):1–8.
[62]赵金实,王浣尘,郑晓涛.期权定价市场化情况下逆向主导型供应链协调机制研究[J].管理工程学报.2009(2):111–115.
[63]赵金实,郑晓涛,王浣尘.基于期权定价的逆向主导型供应链协调机制[J].河北工业大学学报.2008(2):33–38.
[64]赵金实,霍佳震,赵莹, et al.逆向主导型供应链期权定价优化的绩效影响因素分析[J].管理工程学报.2011(1):128–133.
[65] Wang X, Liu L. Coordination by Option Contracts in a Retailer-Led SupplyChain with Demand Update [J]. Tsinghua Science&Technology.2008,13(4):570–580.
[66] Wang X, Liu L. Coordination in a retailer-led supply chain through optioncontract [J]. International Journal of Production Economics.2007,110(1-2):115–127.
[67]马士华,胡剑阳,林勇.一种基于期权的供应商能力预订模型[J].管理工程学报.2004(1):8–11.
[68] Jr E J L, Taskin S. Supply chain planning for hurricane response with windspeed information updates.[J]. Computers and Operations Research.2007,36:2–15.
[69] Taskin S, Jr E J. Inventory decisions for emergency supplies based on hurricanecount predictions [J]. Int. J.Production Economics.2010,126:66–75.
[70]赵志刚,李向阳,刘秀华.面向应急采购与连续消耗的供应链协调交互式方法[J]. In Proceedings of the6th World Congress on Intelligent Control andAutomation.2006,6:6959–6964.
[71] Reiner W J G. Performance improvement of supply chain processes by coordi-nated inventory and capacity management [J]. Int. J. Production Economics.2007,108:183–190.
[72] RSM Lau X Z, Jinxing Xie. Efects of inventory policy on supply chain perfor-mance: A simulation study of critical decision parameters [J]. Computers&Industrial Engineering.2008,55:620–633.
[73]孙琦,陈娟,季建华.供应网络横向联合应急战略库存策略研究[J].工业工程与管理.2009,4:16–21.
[74] Ruiz Torres A J M F. The optimal number of suppliers considering the costsof individual supplier failures [J]. Omega.2007,5:104–115.
[75]张毅,李金辉,和豪涛.基于时效性目标的应急物资库存策略[J].武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）.2010,8:784–792.
[76]王子萍,黄培清,葛静燕.基于横向补货的库存协调近似模型[J].工业工程与管理.2006,4:24–29.
[77] Sven A. Evaluation of unidirectional lateral transsshipments and substitutionsin inventory systems [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2003,149:438–447.
[78] Kutanoglu E. Insights into inventory sharing in service parts logistics systemswith time-based service levels [J]. Computers Industrial Engineering.2008,54:341–358.
[79]杨华,郭伟,毕海玲.大型设备制造企业维修备件联合库存优化研究[J].中国机械工程.2009,8:1802–1806.
[80] Ravi Anupindi Y B. Centralization of stocks: Retailers vs. Manufacturer [J].Management Science.1999,45:178–191.
[81] Manne A. Capacity expansion and probabilistic growth [J]. Econometrica.1961,29:632–649.
[82] Woonghee Tim Huh M C, Robin O Roundy. A general strategic capacity plan-ning model under demand uncertainty [J]. Naval Research Logistics.2006,53:137–150.
[83] Laurens de Vries P H. The impact of electricity market design upon invest-ment under uncertainty: The efectiveness of capacity mechanisms [J]. UtilitiesPolicy.2008,16:215–227.
[84] Nirupam Julka B T P L V V, Tim Baines. A review of multi-factor capacityexpansion models for manufacturing plants: Searching for a holistic decisionaid [J]. Int. J. Production Economics.2007,106:607–621.
[85]张自立,李国峰,李向阳.突发事件中应急产品生产问题研究[J].运筹与管理.2008,17:100–1056.
[86] Ryan S M. Capacity expansion for random exponential demand growth withlead times [J]. Management Science.2004,50:740–748.
[87] Ryan S M. Capacity expansion with lead times and autocorrelated randomdemand [J]. Naval Research Logistics (NRL).2003,50:167–183.
[88] Alexander Simampo S M R. Capacity expansion for a loss system with ex-ponential demand growth [J]. Computers&Operations Research.2003,30:1525–1537.
[89] Erma Suryani R H C-H C, Shuo-Yan Chou. Demand scenario analysis andplanned capacity expansion: A system dynamics framework [J]. SimulationModelling Practice and Theory.2010,18:732–751.
[90] Dimitrios Vlachos E I, Patroklos Georgiadis. A system dynamics model fordynamic capacity planning of remanufacturing in closed-loop supply chains[J]. Computers&Operations Research.2007,34:367–394.
[91] Narasimha B Kamath R R. Capacity augmentation of a supply chain for ashort lifecycle product: A system dynamics framework [J]. European Journalof Operational Research.2007,179:334–351.
[92] Wu S David K S, Erkoc Murat. Managing capacity in the high-tech industry:A review of literature [J]. The Engineering Economist.2005,50:125–158.
[93] Rahul R Marathe S M R. Capacity Expansion Under a Service-Level Con-straint for Uncertain Demand with Lead Times [J]. Inc. Naval Research Lo-gistics.2009,56:250–263.
[94] Angelus A P E. Using echelon capacity to manage multi-Resource capacityexpansions and deferrals.[J]. Stanford University, Stanford, CA.2003.
[95] Demichelis S T O. Capacity expansion and dynamic monopoly pricing [J].Research in Economics.2006,60:169–178.
[96]杜守梅.供应链突发事件扩散机理研究[J].上海.上海交通大学.2008.
[97]潘涛.市场扩散的数学模型及其机理分析[J].广西科学.1996,3:12–15.
[98]孙庆川,山石,兰田田.一个新的信息传播模型及其模拟[J].情报研究.2010,3:52–56.
[99]傅毓维,刘拓,朱发根.公共危机伪信息扩散的混沌情景仿真研究[J].情报杂志.2007,12:7–9.
[100]赵正龙,陈忠,孙武军,李莉.具有差异化选择特征的复杂社会网络扩散研究[J].管理科学学报.2010,3:38–49.
[101]齐晓凡.技术扩散模型及其政策意义[J].江汉论坛.2004,6:5–9.
[102]张彪,方亮,肖人彬.竞争性技术扩散模型及其应用[J].技术经济.2008,9:5–9.
[103]邵云飞,范群林,唐小我.产业集群创新的竞争扩散模型研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理.2010,12:43–49.
[104]陈国宏,王丽丽,蔡猷花.基于Bass修正模型的产业集群技术创新扩散研究[J].中国管理科学.2010,10:179–183.
[105] Chen K, Xiao T. Demand disruption and coordination of the supply chain witha dominant retailer [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2009,197:225–234.
[106]吕浩,王超.重大突发事件的扩散机理研究[J].武汉理工大学学报：信息与管理工程版.2006,28:7–10.
[107]吴国斌,王超.重大突发事件扩散的微观机理研究[J].软科学.2005,19:4–7.
[108]祝江斌,王超,冯斌.城市重大突发事件扩散的微观机理研究[J].武汉理工大学学报：社会科学版.2006,5:710–713.
[109]祝江斌,王超,冯斌.城市重大突发事件的扩散机理刍议[J].华中农业大学学报：社会科学版.2006,5:65–68.
[110]秦军昌,王刊良.一个跨期应急物资库存模型及其解析仿真求解算法[J].运筹与管理.2008,8:45–50.
[111]王蕾,李平.一类非自衡系统的简化模型鲁棒预测控制[J].抚顺石油学院学报.2002,22:43–47.
[112]孟繁华.基于复杂网络的供应链建模及其鲁棒性分析[D].河北:华北电力大学,2009.
[113]杜巍,蔡萌,杜海峰.网络结构鲁棒性指标及应用研究[J].西安交通大学学报.2010,4:93–97.
[114]王新洲,游扬声,汤永净.最优信息扩散估计理论及其应用[J].地理空间信息.2003,6:10–17.
[115]王洪德,郑玉钱.基于网格划分及信息扩散的化工园区安全风险评价技术[J].系统工程理论与实践.2010,7:1286–1292.
[116] Qi X. Supply coordination with demand disruptions [J]. Omega: InternationalJournal for Management Science.2004:301–312.
[117] Hua Z, Li S. Impacts of demand uncertainty on retailer’s dominance andmanufacturer-retailer supply chain cooperation [J]. Omega:International Jour-nal for Management Science.2008,36:697–714.
[118] Hua Z, Li S, Liang L. Impact of demand uncertainty on supply chain co-operation of single-period products [J]. International Journal of ProductionEconomics.2006,100:268–284.
[119] Mantrala M K, Raman K. Demand uncertainty and supplier’s returns poli-cies for a multi-store style-good retailer [J]. European Journal of OperationalResearch.1999,115:270–284.
[120] Lau A H L, Lau H-S. The efects of reducing demand uncertainty in amanufacturer-retailer channel for single-period products [J]. Computers&Op-erations Research.2002,29:1583–1602.
[121]张玲,张昕,谢志平.违约风险对期权定价的影响[J].系统工程学报.2003(1):25–30.
[122] Zhao Y, Wang S, Cheng T C E, et al. Coordination of supply chains by op-tion contracts: A cooperative game theory approach [J]. European Journal ofOperational Research.2010,207(2):668–675.
[123]郑克俊.期权契约下易逝品供应链协调[J].系统工程学报.2011(2):211–215+236.
[124] Jonas Andersson J M. Decentralized inventory control in a two-level distribu-tion system [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2000,127:483–506.
[125]王天日,郭顺生,黄小荣.供应链环境下核心制造企业库存控制研究[J].机械制造.2009,7:18–20.
[126]吴彬.联合库存管理在汽车制造物流中的应用研究[J].计算机技术与发展.2010,9:184–192.
[127] Sabine F schulz A B. Horizontal cooperation in disaster relief logistics: ben-efts and impediments [J]. International Journal of Physical Distribution&Logistics Management.2010,40:636–656.
[128] Mieghem J A V. Capacity management, investment, and hedging: Review andrecent developments [J]. Manufacturing&Service Operations Management.2003,5:269–302.
[129] Wheelwright S. Refecting corporate strategy in manufacturing decisions [J].Business Horizons.1978,21:57–66.
[130]王兴元,石其江.二维Logistic映射中的一种新型激变、回滞和分形[J].应用力学学报.2005,12:501–506.
[131]路应金,唐小我,张勇.基于预期机制的供应链产品转移价格混沌预测研究[J].系统工程理论与实践.2007,1:45–50.
[2]张薇.突发事件应急物资储备模型探究[J].商场现代化.2009,5:130–131.
[3]于辉.供应链合作与企业应急管理[J].重庆大学出版社.2009.
[4]朱子华,李严峰.供应链中突发事件的分类、分级与分期研究[C]. In中国物流学术前沿报告.2006-2007:74–80.
[5] Vos F, Rodriguez J, Below R, et al. Annual Disaster Statistical Review2009:The Numbers and Trends [M]. Brussels: Brussels: CRED,2010.
[6] Narasimhan R, Talluri S. Perspectives on risk management in supply chains[J]. Journal of Operations Management.2009(27):114–118.
[7] Knemeyer A M, Zinn W, Eroglu C. Proactive planning for catastrophic eventsin supply chains [J]. Journal of Operations Management.2009(27):141–153.
[8]罗晓宁.企业应急产品供应链设计策略[J].物流科技.2008,5:20–23.
[9]李湖生.应急管理阶段理论新模型研究[J].中国安全科学技术.2010,10:18–22.
[10]余杰.供应链柔性的系统分析[J].当代经理人.2006,21:804–805.
[11] Chiou S-W. A non-smooth optimization model for a two-tiered supply chainnetwork [J]. Information Sciences.2007,177:5754–5762.
[12] June Dong D Z, Nagurney A. A supply chain network equilibrium model withrandom demands [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2004,156:194–212.
[13] Ostrovsky, Michael. Stability in supply chain networks [J]. The American E-conomic Review.2008,98(3):897–923.
[14] Jackson M O, van den Nouweland A. Strongly stable networks [J]. Games andEconomic Behavior.2005,51(2):420–444.
[15] Nagurney A, Dong J. Supernetworks: Decision-Making for the InformationAge [J]. Edward Elgar Publishers.2002.
[16] Nagurney A, Cruz J. Supply chain networks, electronic commerce, and supplyside and demand side risk [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2005,164(8):120–142.
[17] Guang fen Yang Z p W, qiang Li X. The optimization of the closed-loop supplychain network [J]. Transportation Research Part E.2009,45(8):16–28.
[18] Wakolbinger T, Nagurney A. Dynamic supernetworks for the integration ofsocial networks and supply chains with electronic commerce: modeling andanalysis of buyer-seller relationships with computations [J]. Netnomics.2004,6:153–185.
[19] Nagurney A. Supply chain network design under proft maximization andoligopolistic competition [J]. Transportation Research Part E.2010,46(8):281–294.
[20] Anna Nagurney M Y, Qiang Q. Supply chain network design for critical needswith outsourcing [J]. Regional Science.2011,90(1).
[21]辛玉红.供应链系统鲁棒性研究[D].北京:北京信息控制研究所,2008.
[22] June Dong D Z, Nagurney A. A supply chain network equilibrium model withrandom demands [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2004,156:194–212.
[23] Nagurney A. A system-optimization perspective for supply chain network in-tegration: The horizontal merger case [J]. Transportation Research Part E.2009,45:1–15.
[24] Walid Klibi W K, Guitouni A. The design of robust value-creating supply chainnetworks: A critical review [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2010,203(2):283–293.
[25] Nagurney A. Managing Supply Chain Risk and Vulnerability: Tools andMethods for Supply Chain Decision Makers [M]. London: London, England:Springer:91–111.
[26] Chiang C. A note on optimal policies for periodic inventory system with e-mergency orders [J]. Computers&Operations Research.2001,28:93–103.
[27] BCGiri T. Cost-efective ordering policies for inventory systems with emer-gency order [J]. Computers&Industrial Engineering.2009,57:1336–1341.
[28]顾小豹,杨西龙,彭桢晶.应急需求[J].物流科技.2009,12:54–56.
[29]郑宇.城市防震减灾能力评价指标与应急需求研究[D].南京:南京工业大学,2003.
[30] Selda Taskin E J J. Inventory decisions for emergency supplies based on hur-ricane count predictions [J]. Int. J. Production Economics.2001,126:66–75.
[31]闫文周,朱亮亮,周继锋,赵平.基于熵理论的信息扩散系数确定[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版).2009,4:269–272.
[32]杨旭,李春晨.基于信息扩散理论的火灾风险评估模型研究及其应用[J].工业安全与环保.2010,1:42–43.
[33]黄崇福,王家鼎.模糊信息优化处理技术及其应用[J].北京：北京航空航天大学出版社.1995:60–61.
[34]张成才,陈继祖,叶伟,周勇.基于信息扩散理论的河南省区域干旱等级模糊综合评价[J].郑州大学学报(工学版).2010,4:56–60.
[35]杨旭,李春晨.基于信息扩散理论的火灾风险评估模型研究及其应用[J].工业安全与环保.2010,1:42–43.
[36]刘引鸽,缪启龙,高庆九.基于信息扩散理论的气象灾害风险评价方法[J].气象科学.2005,1:84–89.
[37]史东建,陈荣税.基于信息扩散近似推理的年径流量预测模型[J].中州大学学报.2010,4:110–113.
[38]黄强,原文林,陈晓楠,张洪波,王义民.基于信息扩散近似推理的年降水量预测模型[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版).2009,2:213–219.
[39]庞庆华.收益共享契约下三级供应链应对突发事件的协调研究[J].中国管理科学.2010,2:1–6.
[40]傅俊辉,张卫国,梅琴,杜倩.零售商竞争的供应链对突发事件的协调应对[J].工业工程与管理.2010,15:29–34.
[41]于辉,陈剑,于刚.协调供应链如何应对突发事件[J].系统工程理论与实践.2005,7:9–16.
[42] Lusa C A n N, A. A multistage scenario optimization procedure to plan an-nualized working hours under demand uncertainty [J]. International Journalof Production Economics.2008,113:957–968.
[43] Ray E, S. Customer lead time management when both demand and price arelead time sensitive [J]. European Journal of Operational research.2004,153:769–781.
[44] Chiang J G, C. Optimal control policies for a periodic review inventory systemwith emergency orders [J]. Naval Research Logistics.1998,45:187–204.
[45] Moinzadeh K C, Schmidt. An (s-1,s) inventory system with emergency orders.Operations Research [J]. Naval Research Logistics.1991,39:308–321.
[46] Johansen T A, SG. An inventory model with poisson demands and emergencyorders [J]. International Journal of Production Economics.1998,56:275–289.
[47] Moinzadeh N S, K. A continuous review model for an inventory system withtwo supply modes [J]. Management Science.1988,34:761–773.
[48] Bylka S. Turnpike plicies for periodic review inventory model with emergencyorders [J]. International Journal of production economics.2005,93-94:357–373.
[49] Axsater S. A heuristic for triggering emergency orders in an inventory system[J]. European journal of operational Research.2007,176:880–891.
[50] SSodhi C, MSTang. Modeling supply-chain planning under demand uncer-tainty using stochastic programming: A survey motivated by asset-liabilitymanagement [J]. International Journal of Production Economics.2009,121:728–738.
[51] Fisher R A, M. Reducing the cost of demand uncertainty through accurateresponse to early sales [J]. Opeartions Research.1996,44:87–99.
[52] Zhao X J C J, Xie. The value of early order commitment in a two-level supplychain [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2007,180:194–21.
[53] Gilbert H R, SM. Supply chain benefts from advanced customer commitments[J]. Journal of Operations Management.1999,18:61–73.
[54] MRyan S. Capacity expansion for random exponential demand growth withlead times [J]. Management Science.2004,50:740–748.
[55] Hill K I, A. Models for optimal lead time reproduction [J]. Production andOperations Management.1992,1:185–197.
[56] Ritchken H, Tapiero C. Contingent claims contracting for purchasing decisionsin inventory management [J]. Operations Research.1986,34(6):864–870.
[57] Burnetas A, Ritchken P. Option pricing with downward-sloping demandcurves: The case of supply chain options.[J]. Management Science.2005,51(4):566–580.
[58] Fang F, Whinston A. Option contracts and capacity management-Enablingprice discrimination under demand uncertainty [J]. Production and Opera-tions Management Society.2007,16(1):125–137.
[59] Barnes-Schuster D, Bassok Y, Anupindi R. Coordination and fexibility in sup-ply contracts with options [R].2000.
[60] Cheng F, Ettl M, Lin G Y, et al. Flexible supply contracts via options [R].2003.
[61]吴建祖,刘锦.不确定条件下VMI供应链协调的期权合约[J].系统工程.2011(3):1–8.
[62]赵金实,王浣尘,郑晓涛.期权定价市场化情况下逆向主导型供应链协调机制研究[J].管理工程学报.2009(2):111–115.
[63]赵金实,郑晓涛,王浣尘.基于期权定价的逆向主导型供应链协调机制[J].河北工业大学学报.2008(2):33–38.
[64]赵金实,霍佳震,赵莹, et al.逆向主导型供应链期权定价优化的绩效影响因素分析[J].管理工程学报.2011(1):128–133.
[65] Wang X, Liu L. Coordination by Option Contracts in a Retailer-Led SupplyChain with Demand Update [J]. Tsinghua Science&Technology.2008,13(4):570–580.
[66] Wang X, Liu L. Coordination in a retailer-led supply chain through optioncontract [J]. International Journal of Production Economics.2007,110(1-2):115–127.
[67]马士华,胡剑阳,林勇.一种基于期权的供应商能力预订模型[J].管理工程学报.2004(1):8–11.
[68] Jr E J L, Taskin S. Supply chain planning for hurricane response with windspeed information updates.[J]. Computers and Operations Research.2007,36:2–15.
[69] Taskin S, Jr E J. Inventory decisions for emergency supplies based on hurricanecount predictions [J]. Int. J.Production Economics.2010,126:66–75.
[70]赵志刚,李向阳,刘秀华.面向应急采购与连续消耗的供应链协调交互式方法[J]. In Proceedings of the6th World Congress on Intelligent Control andAutomation.2006,6:6959–6964.
[71] Reiner W J G. Performance improvement of supply chain processes by coordi-nated inventory and capacity management [J]. Int. J. Production Economics.2007,108:183–190.
[72] RSM Lau X Z, Jinxing Xie. Efects of inventory policy on supply chain perfor-mance: A simulation study of critical decision parameters [J]. Computers&Industrial Engineering.2008,55:620–633.
[73]孙琦,陈娟,季建华.供应网络横向联合应急战略库存策略研究[J].工业工程与管理.2009,4:16–21.
[74] Ruiz Torres A J M F. The optimal number of suppliers considering the costsof individual supplier failures [J]. Omega.2007,5:104–115.
[75]张毅,李金辉,和豪涛.基于时效性目标的应急物资库存策略[J].武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）.2010,8:784–792.
[76]王子萍,黄培清,葛静燕.基于横向补货的库存协调近似模型[J].工业工程与管理.2006,4:24–29.
[77] Sven A. Evaluation of unidirectional lateral transsshipments and substitutionsin inventory systems [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2003,149:438–447.
[78] Kutanoglu E. Insights into inventory sharing in service parts logistics systemswith time-based service levels [J]. Computers Industrial Engineering.2008,54:341–358.
[79]杨华,郭伟,毕海玲.大型设备制造企业维修备件联合库存优化研究[J].中国机械工程.2009,8:1802–1806.
[80] Ravi Anupindi Y B. Centralization of stocks: Retailers vs. Manufacturer [J].Management Science.1999,45:178–191.
[81] Manne A. Capacity expansion and probabilistic growth [J]. Econometrica.1961,29:632–649.
[82] Woonghee Tim Huh M C, Robin O Roundy. A general strategic capacity plan-ning model under demand uncertainty [J]. Naval Research Logistics.2006,53:137–150.
[83] Laurens de Vries P H. The impact of electricity market design upon invest-ment under uncertainty: The efectiveness of capacity mechanisms [J]. UtilitiesPolicy.2008,16:215–227.
[84] Nirupam Julka B T P L V V, Tim Baines. A review of multi-factor capacityexpansion models for manufacturing plants: Searching for a holistic decisionaid [J]. Int. J. Production Economics.2007,106:607–621.
[85]张自立,李国峰,李向阳.突发事件中应急产品生产问题研究[J].运筹与管理.2008,17:100–1056.
[86] Ryan S M. Capacity expansion for random exponential demand growth withlead times [J]. Management Science.2004,50:740–748.
[87] Ryan S M. Capacity expansion with lead times and autocorrelated randomdemand [J]. Naval Research Logistics (NRL).2003,50:167–183.
[88] Alexander Simampo S M R. Capacity expansion for a loss system with ex-ponential demand growth [J]. Computers&Operations Research.2003,30:1525–1537.
[89] Erma Suryani R H C-H C, Shuo-Yan Chou. Demand scenario analysis andplanned capacity expansion: A system dynamics framework [J]. SimulationModelling Practice and Theory.2010,18:732–751.
[90] Dimitrios Vlachos E I, Patroklos Georgiadis. A system dynamics model fordynamic capacity planning of remanufacturing in closed-loop supply chains[J]. Computers&Operations Research.2007,34:367–394.
[91] Narasimha B Kamath R R. Capacity augmentation of a supply chain for ashort lifecycle product: A system dynamics framework [J]. European Journalof Operational Research.2007,179:334–351.
[92] Wu S David K S, Erkoc Murat. Managing capacity in the high-tech industry:A review of literature [J]. The Engineering Economist.2005,50:125–158.
[93] Rahul R Marathe S M R. Capacity Expansion Under a Service-Level Con-straint for Uncertain Demand with Lead Times [J]. Inc. Naval Research Lo-gistics.2009,56:250–263.
[94] Angelus A P E. Using echelon capacity to manage multi-Resource capacityexpansions and deferrals.[J]. Stanford University, Stanford, CA.2003.
[95] Demichelis S T O. Capacity expansion and dynamic monopoly pricing [J].Research in Economics.2006,60:169–178.
[96]杜守梅.供应链突发事件扩散机理研究[J].上海.上海交通大学.2008.
[97]潘涛.市场扩散的数学模型及其机理分析[J].广西科学.1996,3:12–15.
[98]孙庆川,山石,兰田田.一个新的信息传播模型及其模拟[J].情报研究.2010,3:52–56.
[99]傅毓维,刘拓,朱发根.公共危机伪信息扩散的混沌情景仿真研究[J].情报杂志.2007,12:7–9.
[100]赵正龙,陈忠,孙武军,李莉.具有差异化选择特征的复杂社会网络扩散研究[J].管理科学学报.2010,3:38–49.
[101]齐晓凡.技术扩散模型及其政策意义[J].江汉论坛.2004,6:5–9.
[102]张彪,方亮,肖人彬.竞争性技术扩散模型及其应用[J].技术经济.2008,9:5–9.
[103]邵云飞,范群林,唐小我.产业集群创新的竞争扩散模型研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理.2010,12:43–49.
[104]陈国宏,王丽丽,蔡猷花.基于Bass修正模型的产业集群技术创新扩散研究[J].中国管理科学.2010,10:179–183.
[105] Chen K, Xiao T. Demand disruption and coordination of the supply chain witha dominant retailer [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2009,197:225–234.
[106]吕浩,王超.重大突发事件的扩散机理研究[J].武汉理工大学学报：信息与管理工程版.2006,28:7–10.
[107]吴国斌,王超.重大突发事件扩散的微观机理研究[J].软科学.2005,19:4–7.
[108]祝江斌,王超,冯斌.城市重大突发事件扩散的微观机理研究[J].武汉理工大学学报：社会科学版.2006,5:710–713.
[109]祝江斌,王超,冯斌.城市重大突发事件的扩散机理刍议[J].华中农业大学学报：社会科学版.2006,5:65–68.
[110]秦军昌,王刊良.一个跨期应急物资库存模型及其解析仿真求解算法[J].运筹与管理.2008,8:45–50.
[111]王蕾,李平.一类非自衡系统的简化模型鲁棒预测控制[J].抚顺石油学院学报.2002,22:43–47.
[112]孟繁华.基于复杂网络的供应链建模及其鲁棒性分析[D].河北:华北电力大学,2009.
[113]杜巍,蔡萌,杜海峰.网络结构鲁棒性指标及应用研究[J].西安交通大学学报.2010,4:93–97.
[114]王新洲,游扬声,汤永净.最优信息扩散估计理论及其应用[J].地理空间信息.2003,6:10–17.
[115]王洪德,郑玉钱.基于网格划分及信息扩散的化工园区安全风险评价技术[J].系统工程理论与实践.2010,7:1286–1292.
[116] Qi X. Supply coordination with demand disruptions [J]. Omega: InternationalJournal for Management Science.2004:301–312.
[117] Hua Z, Li S. Impacts of demand uncertainty on retailer’s dominance andmanufacturer-retailer supply chain cooperation [J]. Omega:International Jour-nal for Management Science.2008,36:697–714.
[118] Hua Z, Li S, Liang L. Impact of demand uncertainty on supply chain co-operation of single-period products [J]. International Journal of ProductionEconomics.2006,100:268–284.
[119] Mantrala M K, Raman K. Demand uncertainty and supplier’s returns poli-cies for a multi-store style-good retailer [J]. European Journal of OperationalResearch.1999,115:270–284.
[120] Lau A H L, Lau H-S. The efects of reducing demand uncertainty in amanufacturer-retailer channel for single-period products [J]. Computers&Op-erations Research.2002,29:1583–1602.
[121]张玲,张昕,谢志平.违约风险对期权定价的影响[J].系统工程学报.2003(1):25–30.
[122] Zhao Y, Wang S, Cheng T C E, et al. Coordination of supply chains by op-tion contracts: A cooperative game theory approach [J]. European Journal ofOperational Research.2010,207(2):668–675.
[123]郑克俊.期权契约下易逝品供应链协调[J].系统工程学报.2011(2):211–215+236.
[124] Jonas Andersson J M. Decentralized inventory control in a two-level distribu-tion system [J]. European Journal of Operational Research.2000,127:483–506.
[125]王天日,郭顺生,黄小荣.供应链环境下核心制造企业库存控制研究[J].机械制造.2009,7:18–20.
[126]吴彬.联合库存管理在汽车制造物流中的应用研究[J].计算机技术与发展.2010,9:184–192.
[127] Sabine F schulz A B. Horizontal cooperation in disaster relief logistics: ben-efts and impediments [J]. International Journal of Physical Distribution&Logistics Management.2010,40:636–656.
[128] Mieghem J A V. Capacity management, investment, and hedging: Review andrecent developments [J]. Manufacturing&Service Operations Management.2003,5:269–302.
[129] Wheelwright S. Refecting corporate strategy in manufacturing decisions [J].Business Horizons.1978,21:57–66.
[130]王兴元,石其江.二维Logistic映射中的一种新型激变、回滞和分形[J].应用力学学报.2005,12:501–506.
[131]路应金,唐小我,张勇.基于预期机制的供应链产品转移价格混沌预测研究[J].系统工程理论与实践.2007,1:45–50.