产业分布、产业集聚和地区经济增长：来自中国制造业的证据
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摘要
纵观工业革命后世界范围内各国经济的发展历程，经济的发展经常显示出一定的地理特征，这既包括在世界范围内，位于不同地理位置的国家之间存在较大的经济发展差距，也包括在一国以内不同地区间的经济发展不平衡。在本文中我们致力于解决的问题主要有：
1、截止到2005年，中国制造业的集聚总体情况如何?在不同的地区，中国制造业中的各产业分布有何差异?
2、中国制造业集聚模式是怎样的?是以产业内集聚为主还是以产业间集聚为主?产业集聚模式在地区之间有何差异?
3、中国制造业集聚对不同地区间的经济增长的影响是通过何种模式产生的?为什么在不同的地区间制造业会以不同的集聚方式产生作用?
为了更加全面地回答以上问题，我们对本文的内容作了如下安排：
第一章是导言。在这一部分，我们通过描述建国后中国的工业化进程以及这一进程中制造业的地理分布状况，引出本文要研究的主要问题。第二章是对之前国内外相关研究的一个文献综述。
在第三章中，我们对中国制造业各产业在全国范围内的分布作了一个统计性描述。我们通过图表等形式，对中国各地区经济发展水平、制造业产业在全国范围的分布差异等进行了比较分析。写作这一部分的目的在于让我们对中国制造业的整体布局形成一个基本认识，从而为后面的分析打下基础。
第四章的主要内容是对中国制造业产业集聚程度的计算与分析。首先我们简单分析了造成中国制造业产业集聚的几个因素。随后，本章介绍了较为通行的几种集聚指标的计算方法。然后我们引入EG指数并对之进行修正，使得它能够符合目前可以得到的中国数据要求。通过对中国制造业产业EG指数的计算，我们得到了全国范围与中国东、中、西部地区的制造业产业的集聚程度并对之进行了分析。为了更加客观地反映中国制造业产业的集聚程度，我们同时还计算了赫芬达尔指数和区域基尼系数，并用这两个指数的计算结果与EG指数进行对比分析。
在第五章中，我们选取2003、2004和2005年中国30个省市C门类制造业中17个大类产业中的88个中类产业作为研究样本，检验了中国制造业产业集聚对中国地区经济增长的影响。我们通过构造国民经济产业分类标准C门类制造业中类产业间共同集聚指数、产业内集聚指数等作为解释变量，同时控制专业化指数和企业规模来计量和解释不同产业集聚结构对中国地区经济增长的影响。研究表明，产业内集聚和产业间集聚都对劳动生产率存在显著影响，但是这种影响在东、中、西部地区的表现存在较为明显的差异。随后我们运用Hoover(1937)和Henderson等(1995)发展的产品周期理论对实证结果进行了解释。
第六章是本文的结论与政策建议部分。在这一章，我们回顾了本文的工作，并对本文得到的一些主要结论作了总结。根据这些结论，我们针对中国产业集聚在未来的发展趋势提出了一些政策建议。在这一章的最后，我们指出了本研究的不足之处，并对我们之后进一步要做的工作作了展望。
In accordance with the process of economic development in worldwide since theIndustrial Revolution, economic growth is always characterized as some patterns ofgeographic agglomeration, which include large gap of economic developmentbetween countries with different location as well as regional imbalance in the samecountry. In this paper, the following issues will be discussed in detail:
1. What about the situation of agglomeration of manufacturing industries incurrent China? And what about differences of the distribution of manufacturingindustries between regions in China?
2. What is the mode of the agglomeration of manufacturing in China? Is thereany difference of the mode between regions in China?
3. How does the agglomeration of manufacturing industries in China put itseffects on regional economic growth in China? Why are there different ways takenby agglomeration of manufacturing industries to put effects on economic growth?
For giving an answer to above problems, this paper is organized as follows:
Chapter 1 is an introduction, where we bring out the main issues studied in thispaper on the basis of the description of industrization in China since 1949. Chapter 2is a survey for existing studies on related issues.
In Chapter 3, we make a statistic description to the distribution of manufacturingindustries in the nationwide. By means of graphes and tables, a comparative analysisis made for the difference of regional economic growth and the difference ofdistribution of manufacturing industries. As a result, we shape an outline fordistribution of manufacturing industries in China and establish a foundation forfurther analysis.
We measure industrial agglomeration of manufacturing industries in China bysome indices in Chapter 4. First of all, we give an initial introduction for factorsresulting in industrial agglomeration in China. As a following, several indices formeasuring agglomeration are introduced. And then we modify the EG index and applyit to make an evaluation for China's industrial agglomeration. In addition, wecalculate Herfindahl Index and local Gini coefficient to make a futher analysis.
In Chapter 5, we make an evaluation to the effect of industrial agglomeration onlocal economic growth on the basis of the sample of data of 88 categories ofmanufacturing industries in China for 2003, 2004 and 2005, for which we conduct intra co-agglomeration index and inner agglomeration index as explaining variablesand put specification index and firm scale under control. It is concluded that intraco-agglomeration index and inner agglomeration index have significant influence onlabor productivity which, however, make obvious difference between the east, middleand west area in China. The empirical results are explained by the theory of productcycle developed by Hoover (1937) and Henderson et al.(1995).
Chapter 6 is the conclusion, where we give a brief review to this paper and makesome summarizations. We also propose some policy advice based on our studies. Atlast, we review some shortcomings in this paper and outline our further studies infuture.
1、截止到2005年，中国制造业的集聚总体情况如何?在不同的地区，中国制造业中的各产业分布有何差异?
2、中国制造业集聚模式是怎样的?是以产业内集聚为主还是以产业间集聚为主?产业集聚模式在地区之间有何差异?
3、中国制造业集聚对不同地区间的经济增长的影响是通过何种模式产生的?为什么在不同的地区间制造业会以不同的集聚方式产生作用?
为了更加全面地回答以上问题，我们对本文的内容作了如下安排：
第一章是导言。在这一部分，我们通过描述建国后中国的工业化进程以及这一进程中制造业的地理分布状况，引出本文要研究的主要问题。第二章是对之前国内外相关研究的一个文献综述。
在第三章中，我们对中国制造业各产业在全国范围内的分布作了一个统计性描述。我们通过图表等形式，对中国各地区经济发展水平、制造业产业在全国范围的分布差异等进行了比较分析。写作这一部分的目的在于让我们对中国制造业的整体布局形成一个基本认识，从而为后面的分析打下基础。
第四章的主要内容是对中国制造业产业集聚程度的计算与分析。首先我们简单分析了造成中国制造业产业集聚的几个因素。随后，本章介绍了较为通行的几种集聚指标的计算方法。然后我们引入EG指数并对之进行修正，使得它能够符合目前可以得到的中国数据要求。通过对中国制造业产业EG指数的计算，我们得到了全国范围与中国东、中、西部地区的制造业产业的集聚程度并对之进行了分析。为了更加客观地反映中国制造业产业的集聚程度，我们同时还计算了赫芬达尔指数和区域基尼系数，并用这两个指数的计算结果与EG指数进行对比分析。
在第五章中，我们选取2003、2004和2005年中国30个省市C门类制造业中17个大类产业中的88个中类产业作为研究样本，检验了中国制造业产业集聚对中国地区经济增长的影响。我们通过构造国民经济产业分类标准C门类制造业中类产业间共同集聚指数、产业内集聚指数等作为解释变量，同时控制专业化指数和企业规模来计量和解释不同产业集聚结构对中国地区经济增长的影响。研究表明，产业内集聚和产业间集聚都对劳动生产率存在显著影响，但是这种影响在东、中、西部地区的表现存在较为明显的差异。随后我们运用Hoover(1937)和Henderson等(1995)发展的产品周期理论对实证结果进行了解释。
第六章是本文的结论与政策建议部分。在这一章，我们回顾了本文的工作，并对本文得到的一些主要结论作了总结。根据这些结论，我们针对中国产业集聚在未来的发展趋势提出了一些政策建议。在这一章的最后，我们指出了本研究的不足之处，并对我们之后进一步要做的工作作了展望。
In accordance with the process of economic development in worldwide since theIndustrial Revolution, economic growth is always characterized as some patterns ofgeographic agglomeration, which include large gap of economic developmentbetween countries with different location as well as regional imbalance in the samecountry. In this paper, the following issues will be discussed in detail:
1. What about the situation of agglomeration of manufacturing industries incurrent China? And what about differences of the distribution of manufacturingindustries between regions in China?
2. What is the mode of the agglomeration of manufacturing in China? Is thereany difference of the mode between regions in China?
3. How does the agglomeration of manufacturing industries in China put itseffects on regional economic growth in China? Why are there different ways takenby agglomeration of manufacturing industries to put effects on economic growth?
For giving an answer to above problems, this paper is organized as follows:
Chapter 1 is an introduction, where we bring out the main issues studied in thispaper on the basis of the description of industrization in China since 1949. Chapter 2is a survey for existing studies on related issues.
In Chapter 3, we make a statistic description to the distribution of manufacturingindustries in the nationwide. By means of graphes and tables, a comparative analysisis made for the difference of regional economic growth and the difference ofdistribution of manufacturing industries. As a result, we shape an outline fordistribution of manufacturing industries in China and establish a foundation forfurther analysis.
We measure industrial agglomeration of manufacturing industries in China bysome indices in Chapter 4. First of all, we give an initial introduction for factorsresulting in industrial agglomeration in China. As a following, several indices formeasuring agglomeration are introduced. And then we modify the EG index and applyit to make an evaluation for China's industrial agglomeration. In addition, wecalculate Herfindahl Index and local Gini coefficient to make a futher analysis.
In Chapter 5, we make an evaluation to the effect of industrial agglomeration onlocal economic growth on the basis of the sample of data of 88 categories ofmanufacturing industries in China for 2003, 2004 and 2005, for which we conduct intra co-agglomeration index and inner agglomeration index as explaining variablesand put specification index and firm scale under control. It is concluded that intraco-agglomeration index and inner agglomeration index have significant influence onlabor productivity which, however, make obvious difference between the east, middleand west area in China. The empirical results are explained by the theory of productcycle developed by Hoover (1937) and Henderson et al.(1995).
Chapter 6 is the conclusion, where we give a brief review to this paper and makesome summarizations. We also propose some policy advice based on our studies. Atlast, we review some shortcomings in this paper and outline our further studies infuture.
引文
社，2007年1月。
2 关于有关建国后“一五”期间的工业投入和布局的数据均来自于高伯文著《中国共产党区域经济思想研究》，2004年12月中共党史出版社，第76页—86页。
3 关于改革开放初期中国工业经济调整的数据来自汪海波著《新中国工业经济史(1979—2000)》，2004，第12页—15页。
4 上述资料整理自汪海波著《新中国工业经济史(1979—2000)》，2004，第160页—163页。
5 上述资料整理自汪海波著《新中国工业经济史(1979—2000)》，2004，第351页—363页。
6 关于当前中国产业布局和集聚的现状及程度，我们将在第三章和第四章详细论述。
7 需要说明的是，由于数据获取上的困难并保持现有数据口径的一致性，我们的研究中不包括西藏自治区、台湾及港澳地区。
1 产业距离表达的含义是两个企业所属产业之间的关联程度，如果两个企业生产同一种产品，那么它们之间的产业距离为0。Ellison和Glaeser(1997)中度量的共同集聚指数(coagglomeration)其实就包含产业距离的含义，详见Rosenthal和Strange(2004)。
2 时间距离表达的是，比如一个企业两年前和另一企业合作过或交流过，那么这两个企业的时间距离为2，详见Rosenthat和Strange(2004)。
3 Aimit(1998，1999)对欧洲的专业化发展进行专门而详尽的分析探讨，见Aimit, M., 1998, "New Trade Theories and Industrial Location in the EU: A Survey of Evidence," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 14, pp. 45-53 和 Aimit, M., 1999, "Specialisation Patterns in Europe," Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 135, pp. 573-593。
4 Nakamura(1985)使用城市人口作为城市化变量，产业就业人数作为地方化变量，研究结果
1 因数据获取上的困难，我们在对中国西部的分析中没有包括西藏自治区；此外要说明的是，台湾省、香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区也不在本文的分析范围内。
2 图中右边图例分别代表C13农副食品加工业；C14食品制造业；C15饮料制造业；C16烟草制品业；C17纺织业；C22造纸及纸制品业；C26化学原料及制品制造业；C27医药制造业；C31非金属矿物制品业；C32黑包金属冶炼及压延业；C33有色金属冶炼及压延业；C34金属制品业；C35通用设备制造业；C37交通运输设备制造业；C39电气机械及器材制造业；C40通信设备、计算机及其它电子设备制造业；C41仪器仪表及文化、办公用机械制造业。以下同。
3 以上关于2004年中国通信设备制造业的相关数据来自李廉水和杜占元主编的《中国制造 业发展研究报告2006》，科学出版社，2006年10月，第238页—239页。
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2 关于有关建国后“一五”期间的工业投入和布局的数据均来自于高伯文著《中国共产党区域经济思想研究》，2004年12月中共党史出版社，第76页—86页。
3 关于改革开放初期中国工业经济调整的数据来自汪海波著《新中国工业经济史(1979—2000)》，2004，第12页—15页。
4 上述资料整理自汪海波著《新中国工业经济史(1979—2000)》，2004，第160页—163页。
5 上述资料整理自汪海波著《新中国工业经济史(1979—2000)》，2004，第351页—363页。
6 关于当前中国产业布局和集聚的现状及程度，我们将在第三章和第四章详细论述。
7 需要说明的是，由于数据获取上的困难并保持现有数据口径的一致性，我们的研究中不包括西藏自治区、台湾及港澳地区。
1 产业距离表达的含义是两个企业所属产业之间的关联程度，如果两个企业生产同一种产品，那么它们之间的产业距离为0。Ellison和Glaeser(1997)中度量的共同集聚指数(coagglomeration)其实就包含产业距离的含义，详见Rosenthal和Strange(2004)。
2 时间距离表达的是，比如一个企业两年前和另一企业合作过或交流过，那么这两个企业的时间距离为2，详见Rosenthat和Strange(2004)。
3 Aimit(1998，1999)对欧洲的专业化发展进行专门而详尽的分析探讨，见Aimit, M., 1998, "New Trade Theories and Industrial Location in the EU: A Survey of Evidence," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 14, pp. 45-53 和 Aimit, M., 1999, "Specialisation Patterns in Europe," Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 135, pp. 573-593。
4 Nakamura(1985)使用城市人口作为城市化变量，产业就业人数作为地方化变量，研究结果
1 因数据获取上的困难，我们在对中国西部的分析中没有包括西藏自治区；此外要说明的是，台湾省、香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区也不在本文的分析范围内。
2 图中右边图例分别代表C13农副食品加工业；C14食品制造业；C15饮料制造业；C16烟草制品业；C17纺织业；C22造纸及纸制品业；C26化学原料及制品制造业；C27医药制造业；C31非金属矿物制品业；C32黑包金属冶炼及压延业；C33有色金属冶炼及压延业；C34金属制品业；C35通用设备制造业；C37交通运输设备制造业；C39电气机械及器材制造业；C40通信设备、计算机及其它电子设备制造业；C41仪器仪表及文化、办公用机械制造业。以下同。
3 以上关于2004年中国通信设备制造业的相关数据来自李廉水和杜占元主编的《中国制造 业发展研究报告2006》，科学出版社，2006年10月，第238页—239页。
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