南水北调中线工程水源区水体风险管理研究
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摘要
水资源是社会、经济、文化发展的重要保障资源,日益上升为一种战略资源。南水北调中线工程的启动促使丹江口水库及其渠道沿线水体逐渐转为一种战略资源,其发展、管理也将面临着严重的挑战。丹江口水库作为南水北调中线工程的水源地,其水体管理要求进一步提升,水库沿线同时面临着水体保护与经济发展的两难困境,水体安全成为南水北调中线水源区管理重点内容。目前水源区的管理处于分散、路径混乱状态,本文从风险管理理论出发,寻找南水北调中线水源区淅川县境内水体风险节点,通过风险节点与行政管理相衔接探寻水体风险管理的合理路径。本论文旨在解决南水北调中线水源区水体管理的困境,保障南水北调为京津唐地区提供优质水资源的同时,为水源区提供良好的水环境与水资源开发潜力。
本论文研究内容共六章,按照“理论分析—实证分析—例证分析”的逻辑思路展开。绪论介绍了研究的背景、意义,研究现状、技术路线及方法；第二章对相关理论研究进行了概述,对淅川县水源区水资源管理的现状进行了初步描述,并根据水源区冲突级别对规划带进行边界界定。并对风险源和冲突关键点进行识别,在此基础上,进一步对水源区水体风险管理现状和风险管理的可能模式进行了分析。第三章通过对水源区地形图、水文图的风险类型识别,得出了关于风险关键点、风险要素、风险级别的数据。并运用logistic回归模型进行分析,从而识别和估计各种环境因素对南水北调工程水源区带来的可能风险。第四章利用多元统计技术,从大面积、多元混合杂乱信息中,对水源区的风险要素进行识别和评价,进一步量化风险,在此基础上对风险因素进行统计实证分析。第五章在对水体风险的潜在进入因素分析和水源区风险特征识别与评价的基础上,提出了水源区水体风险管理的一系列对策。第六章总结了全文的主要结论与进一步研究的计划。
本文试图从内容体系及研究视角两个方面有所突破,注重方法、结论和思想创新,主要创新点体现在：第一,较全面的分析了水源区潜在进入响应和水体风险特征,对风险源和冲突关键点进行了识别与评价,完善了理论基础；第二,将人文、自然与社会经济生态集合到一个研究框架中,使之成为三维研究模式,创新了研究视角。第三,将水源区划分为三带进行风险识别与管理,针对三带的不同特点、环境行为、环境压力程度进行专项管制和政策工具选择,创新了治理机制。
Water resource plays an important role in the economy, culture and society development, and it increasingly becomes a strategic resource. The South-to-North water diversion project which makes the water around Danjiangkou Reservoir become a strategic resource also faced severe challenge in its own development and management. Being the water source, Danjiangkou Reservoir needs to improve its management. So the reservoir meets a dilemma on water protection and economy development. Guarantee Water security is an essential work for the South-to-North water diversion project. This dissertation attempts to resolve the water management dilemma in this project to provide good quality water resource for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region as well as guarantee good condition in water environment and water developing potential.
This dissertation contains 6 chapters, obey the following logic:theory analysis-empirical analysis- case study. In introduction part, we briefly introduce the research background and significance as well as literature review and research approach. In chapter 2, we summarize some relative theory basis and describe current situation of water resource management in water source area. After ranking the conflict, we determine the planning district boundary. With the risk of water source and key points of conflict identification, we further analyze some possible modes for the current water risk management in water source area. In chapter 3, Identifying risk type on the map of water source district terrain and hydrology, we obtain the data of key point of risk, risk components and risk ranking. Then we use Logistic regression analysis to estimate some possible risk that various environmental factors bring to the water source area. In chapter 4, using Multivariate statistical techniques, we try to identify and assess risk elements from large amount and multi-source messy information, further the risk quantization analysis also included. Based on the above, we carry on some empirical statistic analysis for risk factors. And chapter 5, analyzing potential involved factors of water risk and recognizing risk feature in water source area, we put up a series of water risk management count measure for water source area. In chapter 6, we draw the main conclusion and suggest the future research plan.
We try to breakthrough on content system and research views in this dissertation. We focus on the creation on research approach, conclusion and ideology. Our main creation is following:firstly, conduct comprehensive analysis on potential response of entering water source area and water risk features, and then assess the risk source and key point of conflict which improve the theoretical basis. Secondly, integrate humanities, nature and social economy into one research framework which forms a three-dimensional research mode, that's a research view creation. Thirdly, divide the water source into three zones for risk identification and management and conduct special control and choose policy tools according to different characteristics, environmental behavior and environmental stress levels of three zones, that's a government mechanism creation.
本论文研究内容共六章,按照“理论分析—实证分析—例证分析”的逻辑思路展开。绪论介绍了研究的背景、意义,研究现状、技术路线及方法；第二章对相关理论研究进行了概述,对淅川县水源区水资源管理的现状进行了初步描述,并根据水源区冲突级别对规划带进行边界界定。并对风险源和冲突关键点进行识别,在此基础上,进一步对水源区水体风险管理现状和风险管理的可能模式进行了分析。第三章通过对水源区地形图、水文图的风险类型识别,得出了关于风险关键点、风险要素、风险级别的数据。并运用logistic回归模型进行分析,从而识别和估计各种环境因素对南水北调工程水源区带来的可能风险。第四章利用多元统计技术,从大面积、多元混合杂乱信息中,对水源区的风险要素进行识别和评价,进一步量化风险,在此基础上对风险因素进行统计实证分析。第五章在对水体风险的潜在进入因素分析和水源区风险特征识别与评价的基础上,提出了水源区水体风险管理的一系列对策。第六章总结了全文的主要结论与进一步研究的计划。
本文试图从内容体系及研究视角两个方面有所突破,注重方法、结论和思想创新,主要创新点体现在：第一,较全面的分析了水源区潜在进入响应和水体风险特征,对风险源和冲突关键点进行了识别与评价,完善了理论基础；第二,将人文、自然与社会经济生态集合到一个研究框架中,使之成为三维研究模式,创新了研究视角。第三,将水源区划分为三带进行风险识别与管理,针对三带的不同特点、环境行为、环境压力程度进行专项管制和政策工具选择,创新了治理机制。
Water resource plays an important role in the economy, culture and society development, and it increasingly becomes a strategic resource. The South-to-North water diversion project which makes the water around Danjiangkou Reservoir become a strategic resource also faced severe challenge in its own development and management. Being the water source, Danjiangkou Reservoir needs to improve its management. So the reservoir meets a dilemma on water protection and economy development. Guarantee Water security is an essential work for the South-to-North water diversion project. This dissertation attempts to resolve the water management dilemma in this project to provide good quality water resource for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region as well as guarantee good condition in water environment and water developing potential.
This dissertation contains 6 chapters, obey the following logic:theory analysis-empirical analysis- case study. In introduction part, we briefly introduce the research background and significance as well as literature review and research approach. In chapter 2, we summarize some relative theory basis and describe current situation of water resource management in water source area. After ranking the conflict, we determine the planning district boundary. With the risk of water source and key points of conflict identification, we further analyze some possible modes for the current water risk management in water source area. In chapter 3, Identifying risk type on the map of water source district terrain and hydrology, we obtain the data of key point of risk, risk components and risk ranking. Then we use Logistic regression analysis to estimate some possible risk that various environmental factors bring to the water source area. In chapter 4, using Multivariate statistical techniques, we try to identify and assess risk elements from large amount and multi-source messy information, further the risk quantization analysis also included. Based on the above, we carry on some empirical statistic analysis for risk factors. And chapter 5, analyzing potential involved factors of water risk and recognizing risk feature in water source area, we put up a series of water risk management count measure for water source area. In chapter 6, we draw the main conclusion and suggest the future research plan.
We try to breakthrough on content system and research views in this dissertation. We focus on the creation on research approach, conclusion and ideology. Our main creation is following:firstly, conduct comprehensive analysis on potential response of entering water source area and water risk features, and then assess the risk source and key point of conflict which improve the theoretical basis. Secondly, integrate humanities, nature and social economy into one research framework which forms a three-dimensional research mode, that's a research view creation. Thirdly, divide the water source into three zones for risk identification and management and conduct special control and choose policy tools according to different characteristics, environmental behavior and environmental stress levels of three zones, that's a government mechanism creation.
引文
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