我国农户家庭农业长期投资行为研究
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摘要
改革开放二十多年来,我国经济一直保持高速增长,取得了举世瞩目的成就。但是,我国农村、农业和农民的境遇却有着与整体经济发展不相协调的发展状况。近年来,农民增收乏力,城乡差距越来越大;农村长期投资严重不足,粮食生产徘徊不前;农村生态恶化,土地撂荒严重等问题日益突出。
面对农村严峻的局面,党中央国务院分外重视,从2004年起,在连续发出了4个有关“三农”一号文件的基础上,党的十六届五中全会又作出统筹城乡发展,建设社会主义新农村的战略部署。统筹城乡发展、建设新农村,除了制度激励外,还必须大力投资。农户作为新农村建设的主体,如何发挥其在新农村建设过程中的能动性,如何激起他们的投资热情,这是关系到整个农业和农村能否持续发展的重要因素,是关系到整个新农村建设,统筹城乡发展成败的关键,是解决我国“三农”问题的关键。
文章首先对凯恩斯和新古典投资理论,国内外农户投资和实物期权分析方法等文献进行梳理认为:已有的文献主要集中于土地产权与农户农业长期投资的关系上,大多数研究认为稳定的产权有利于农户农业长期投资;或许由于研究者的视角不同,亦或研究地区经济发展状况不同,故其结论则不尽一致;已有文献都采用NPV法对农户投资决策进行分析,而没有注意到农业长期投资的实物期权价值。
结合我国农地制度变迁及其状况剖析发现,农村土地集体所有制下的土地产权虚置导致了农业长期投资匮乏,农业生态环境恶化等一系列恶果。二轮承包规定农民的耕地使用权为“30年”,在一定程度上缓解了土地产权虚置矛盾,但没有真正解决问题,农民对农业生产的长期投资并没有大的提高。对土地集体所有制与农业长期投资、农业和农村经济可持续发展之间关系的深入分析认为,农村经济可持续发展的前提就是要加大长期投资力度。作为承包者的农户,对农业生产投资以短期简单再生产投资为主,维持农业持续发展的长期投资信心不足。文章从描述统计的角度对实行家庭联产承包责任制后农户长期投资行为分析的结果是:改革开放后农户生产投资实际增长率明显慢于名义增长率。在农户的生产投资中,农业投资的比重越来越少,非农投资比重呈递增态势。1988年以后,农户用于农业生产性固定资产的投资,无论是增长速度上,还是其在农户农业生产性投资中所占比重上,都处于停滞状态。
在对农户农业长期投资特性的仔细分析中发现,农业长期投资具有期权价值,实物期权分析方法能更好解释农户的投资行为。同时,运用实物期权方法推导出农户进行农业长期投资的边界条件和最佳投资时机。在我国农村存在分层以及地区间经济发展不平衡的现实基础之上,文章运用Panel data分析方法,使用农村固定观察点数据,实证分析了在现有土地制度下,不同收入层次农户及不同地区的农户农业长期投资行为。其结论是:不同收入层次农户投资行为完全不同。农户农业长期投资与收入成正比,但是随着收入层次提高农业长期投资增长率递减。东中西部农户农业长期投资差异也显著不同,但差异主要表现在平均投入水平上,西部地区农户农业长期投资平均水平最高,达到5.2,其次为中部,农业长期投入平均水平东部最低,仅为4.3。但是随着收入增加,东中西部农户对农业长期投资递增率相同,都为0.056%。
最后,根据分析结论,文章提出在建设社会主义新农村条件下,激励农户农业长期投资的措施,即建立完善农村产权制度;建立农地市场,循序推进农业集约化经营;加大工业反哺农业的力度和构建农村新型金融体系,为中低收入者拓宽融资渠道。
China's economy has been keeping on high developing during last twenty years, and has achieved remarkable success. However, development speed in rural China, agriculture and farmers is different from the whole countries' economic development. In recent years, increasingly problems revealed, such as, farmers earn little than workers, so gap between town and village becomes more and more broad; foodstuff yield pace up and down because of short of long-term investment in agriculture; country entironment become worse, and more and more land deserted.
In the face of series issues in rural China, the Party and State Department thought much of it. The Sixteenth Plenary Session of the Fifth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China made with a strategy disposal, namely developing and planning town-and-country as a whole, constructing socialism new country, besides continuously issued four No. 1 files which concerned with "San nong" in recent 4 year. In order to develop and plan town-and-country as a whole, construct new country, we must invest in agriculture and country a lot besides system incent. It is essential that how to incent farmer, as a principal part of constructing new country, invest in agriculture and country. It is critical factor that concern with continuous development of agriculture and country, with constructing new country, developing and planning town-and-country as a whole, and solving "San nong" problems in China,
This thesis reviewed Keynes's and classic investment theory, cultures of rural household investment and real option analysis. Those cultures focused on land property and agricultural long-term investment relationship, and most researches thought stead land property prompted rural household long-term investment. Otherwise, because of different view point of researchers or different development level in different areas, some researchers drew different conclusions. At present, the cultures analyze rural household investment decision with net present value (NPV) , which ignore real option of agricultural long-term investment.
By analyzing China's rural land system transition and present situation, we found that rural land collective system, which ownership is fictitious, had resulted in lacking of agricultural long-term investment and worsen agricultural environment. Rural land second round contract have specified rural land thirty years of period of validity, which eased up contradiction of fictitious ownership in some degree, but did not solve the problem ultimately. Farmers didn't increase their agricultural long-term investment. We draw an conclusion that premise of rural economic sustainable development is increasing long-term investment on agriculture , by analyzing relationship among rural land collective ownership, agricultural long-term investment, and agriculture and country economic sustainable development. However, farmers have no confidence on long-term investment which keeps agriculture sustainable development, and almost all farmers prefer short-term investment on agricultural production. We also analyzed farm household long-term investment behavior after household responsibility system, and we found that farmer's production investment factual increasing ratio less than nominal increasing ratio. Proportion of farmers' non-agricultural investment increased gradually in farmers' agricultural production investment. Since 1988, farm household agricultural production fixed investment increasing ratio or proportion in agricultural production investment has stagnated in any case.
By analyzing characteristics of agricultural long-term investment, we found real option value of agricultural long-term investment, so real option method can explain farmers' investment behavior better. By using real option method, we figure out critical point which farmers began agricultural long-term investment. Under condition of stratification of rural China and unbalance development of different areas, by using panel data method and data from fixed observation areas in rural China, this paper empirically studied on agricultural long-term investment behavior of different social stratification and in different areas. It concluded that different social stratification has completely different investment behavior, farmers' agricultural long-term investment has direct proportion to their income, but increasing ratio of investment descend along with its income rank. Farmers in different areas also have different agricultural long-term investment behavior, but the difference only shows in lever of average agricultural long-term investment. Farmers in west China invest most among three parts, which achieve 5. 2, and the next is farmers in middle China, the least is farmers in east China, who invest only 4. 3. Increasing ratio on agricultural long-term investment along with its income increasing is same, which is 0. 056%, in three areas.
In the end, according to foregoing conclusion, the dissertation put forth measures to incent farmers' agricultural long-term investment under constructing new socialism country, namely setting up and completing rural property system, completing rural land market, promoting agriculture intensive cultivation in proper sequence, intensifying industry nurturing agriculture, and constructing new rural finance system in order to widen low-income farmers' financing channel.
面对农村严峻的局面,党中央国务院分外重视,从2004年起,在连续发出了4个有关“三农”一号文件的基础上,党的十六届五中全会又作出统筹城乡发展,建设社会主义新农村的战略部署。统筹城乡发展、建设新农村,除了制度激励外,还必须大力投资。农户作为新农村建设的主体,如何发挥其在新农村建设过程中的能动性,如何激起他们的投资热情,这是关系到整个农业和农村能否持续发展的重要因素,是关系到整个新农村建设,统筹城乡发展成败的关键,是解决我国“三农”问题的关键。
文章首先对凯恩斯和新古典投资理论,国内外农户投资和实物期权分析方法等文献进行梳理认为:已有的文献主要集中于土地产权与农户农业长期投资的关系上,大多数研究认为稳定的产权有利于农户农业长期投资;或许由于研究者的视角不同,亦或研究地区经济发展状况不同,故其结论则不尽一致;已有文献都采用NPV法对农户投资决策进行分析,而没有注意到农业长期投资的实物期权价值。
结合我国农地制度变迁及其状况剖析发现,农村土地集体所有制下的土地产权虚置导致了农业长期投资匮乏,农业生态环境恶化等一系列恶果。二轮承包规定农民的耕地使用权为“30年”,在一定程度上缓解了土地产权虚置矛盾,但没有真正解决问题,农民对农业生产的长期投资并没有大的提高。对土地集体所有制与农业长期投资、农业和农村经济可持续发展之间关系的深入分析认为,农村经济可持续发展的前提就是要加大长期投资力度。作为承包者的农户,对农业生产投资以短期简单再生产投资为主,维持农业持续发展的长期投资信心不足。文章从描述统计的角度对实行家庭联产承包责任制后农户长期投资行为分析的结果是:改革开放后农户生产投资实际增长率明显慢于名义增长率。在农户的生产投资中,农业投资的比重越来越少,非农投资比重呈递增态势。1988年以后,农户用于农业生产性固定资产的投资,无论是增长速度上,还是其在农户农业生产性投资中所占比重上,都处于停滞状态。
在对农户农业长期投资特性的仔细分析中发现,农业长期投资具有期权价值,实物期权分析方法能更好解释农户的投资行为。同时,运用实物期权方法推导出农户进行农业长期投资的边界条件和最佳投资时机。在我国农村存在分层以及地区间经济发展不平衡的现实基础之上,文章运用Panel data分析方法,使用农村固定观察点数据,实证分析了在现有土地制度下,不同收入层次农户及不同地区的农户农业长期投资行为。其结论是:不同收入层次农户投资行为完全不同。农户农业长期投资与收入成正比,但是随着收入层次提高农业长期投资增长率递减。东中西部农户农业长期投资差异也显著不同,但差异主要表现在平均投入水平上,西部地区农户农业长期投资平均水平最高,达到5.2,其次为中部,农业长期投入平均水平东部最低,仅为4.3。但是随着收入增加,东中西部农户对农业长期投资递增率相同,都为0.056%。
最后,根据分析结论,文章提出在建设社会主义新农村条件下,激励农户农业长期投资的措施,即建立完善农村产权制度;建立农地市场,循序推进农业集约化经营;加大工业反哺农业的力度和构建农村新型金融体系,为中低收入者拓宽融资渠道。
China's economy has been keeping on high developing during last twenty years, and has achieved remarkable success. However, development speed in rural China, agriculture and farmers is different from the whole countries' economic development. In recent years, increasingly problems revealed, such as, farmers earn little than workers, so gap between town and village becomes more and more broad; foodstuff yield pace up and down because of short of long-term investment in agriculture; country entironment become worse, and more and more land deserted.
In the face of series issues in rural China, the Party and State Department thought much of it. The Sixteenth Plenary Session of the Fifth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China made with a strategy disposal, namely developing and planning town-and-country as a whole, constructing socialism new country, besides continuously issued four No. 1 files which concerned with "San nong" in recent 4 year. In order to develop and plan town-and-country as a whole, construct new country, we must invest in agriculture and country a lot besides system incent. It is essential that how to incent farmer, as a principal part of constructing new country, invest in agriculture and country. It is critical factor that concern with continuous development of agriculture and country, with constructing new country, developing and planning town-and-country as a whole, and solving "San nong" problems in China,
This thesis reviewed Keynes's and classic investment theory, cultures of rural household investment and real option analysis. Those cultures focused on land property and agricultural long-term investment relationship, and most researches thought stead land property prompted rural household long-term investment. Otherwise, because of different view point of researchers or different development level in different areas, some researchers drew different conclusions. At present, the cultures analyze rural household investment decision with net present value (NPV) , which ignore real option of agricultural long-term investment.
By analyzing China's rural land system transition and present situation, we found that rural land collective system, which ownership is fictitious, had resulted in lacking of agricultural long-term investment and worsen agricultural environment. Rural land second round contract have specified rural land thirty years of period of validity, which eased up contradiction of fictitious ownership in some degree, but did not solve the problem ultimately. Farmers didn't increase their agricultural long-term investment. We draw an conclusion that premise of rural economic sustainable development is increasing long-term investment on agriculture , by analyzing relationship among rural land collective ownership, agricultural long-term investment, and agriculture and country economic sustainable development. However, farmers have no confidence on long-term investment which keeps agriculture sustainable development, and almost all farmers prefer short-term investment on agricultural production. We also analyzed farm household long-term investment behavior after household responsibility system, and we found that farmer's production investment factual increasing ratio less than nominal increasing ratio. Proportion of farmers' non-agricultural investment increased gradually in farmers' agricultural production investment. Since 1988, farm household agricultural production fixed investment increasing ratio or proportion in agricultural production investment has stagnated in any case.
By analyzing characteristics of agricultural long-term investment, we found real option value of agricultural long-term investment, so real option method can explain farmers' investment behavior better. By using real option method, we figure out critical point which farmers began agricultural long-term investment. Under condition of stratification of rural China and unbalance development of different areas, by using panel data method and data from fixed observation areas in rural China, this paper empirically studied on agricultural long-term investment behavior of different social stratification and in different areas. It concluded that different social stratification has completely different investment behavior, farmers' agricultural long-term investment has direct proportion to their income, but increasing ratio of investment descend along with its income rank. Farmers in different areas also have different agricultural long-term investment behavior, but the difference only shows in lever of average agricultural long-term investment. Farmers in west China invest most among three parts, which achieve 5. 2, and the next is farmers in middle China, the least is farmers in east China, who invest only 4. 3. Increasing ratio on agricultural long-term investment along with its income increasing is same, which is 0. 056%, in three areas.
In the end, according to foregoing conclusion, the dissertation put forth measures to incent farmers' agricultural long-term investment under constructing new socialism country, namely setting up and completing rural property system, completing rural land market, promoting agriculture intensive cultivation in proper sequence, intensifying industry nurturing agriculture, and constructing new rural finance system in order to widen low-income farmers' financing channel.
引文
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