西北内陆干旱区水资源可利用量研究
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摘要
从目前可以查阅到的有关水资源可利用量的研究成果看,对可利用量的研究主要采用的是适合于湿润地区的“正算法”和适合于缺水地区的“倒算法”,2方法均以单一系统为研究对象,研究成果缺乏约束性。本文在协调的思想指导下,以大系统多目标优化理论为手段,以社会经济和生态环境2大系统为研究对象,在水资源总量一定的前提下,协调分配社会经济需水量和生态环境耗水量。
论文在研究中,利用系统工程、大系统多目标优化理论、计量经济学和经济预测学等经济理论以及恢复生态学理论,对水资源大系统进行协调研究,全文可以概括为“1条主线,2个侧翼,3个水量”,采用由局部到整体再由整体到局部的研究方法,对水资源可利用量做了初步的研究,研究内容除绪论外可以归结为4大部分:
第一部分:利用投入～产出法、宏观经济预测、计量经济学、系统优化、统计分析方法,在社会经济系统发展规模预测的前提条件下,对社会经济系统自身需水量进行研究,建立社会经济系统自身需水量求解模型。同时,根据生态环境现状保护的原则,利用定额法和恢复生态学、环境生态学以及信息生态学等方法对生态环境系统现状耗水量进行研究,采用前人研究成果,建立生态环境耗水量直接计算模型。这部分包含了论文第二章和第三章的内容。
第二部分:利用大系统多目标优化理论,根据社会经济系统发展预测趋势和生态环境现状条件,建立社会经济系统和生态环境系统协调模型,在多年平均水资源总量一定的前提下,把该水量在社会经济系统和生态环境系统之间分配,找寻社会经济系统和生态环境系统协调水量,并对水量比较分析,确定水资源可利用量。即论文第四章的内容。
第三部分:选择内陆干旱区具有代表性的新疆做实证研究,利用论文建立的模型对社会经济系统自身需水量、生态环境系统自身耗水量以及2系统协调水量进行计算,并对计算结果分析比较,从工程措施和非工程措施2个角度分析新疆可利用量满足社会经济发展需要的保障措施。案例分析的结论为西北干旱区水资源可持续利用、管理奠定了基础。即论文第五章的内容。
第四部分:对论文研究结论进行总结、阐述,提出未来水资源可利用量研究的领域和突破点。即论文第六章的内容。
Seen from research results that can be found at present about usable amount of water resources, methods adopted in the study on usable amount are straight algorithm applied to moist areas and pouring algorithm suitable for areas lacking water. Since either of these two methods deals with a single system, the research results lack binding character. Under the principle of coordination, however, this paper, which is concerned with two major systems of social economy and ecological environment, distributes, by means of dynamic planning theory of the big system, the amount of water required by social economy and consumed in the ecological environment on condition that there is certain amount of water resources.This paper coordinates the research on the big system of water resources by making use of system engineering, big system multi-goals dynamic planning theory, economic theories including econometrics and economic forecasting, and ecology resuming theory. With "one thread, two sidetracks and three water amounts", this paper makes a preliminary research on the usable amount of water resources, which can be divided into following four major parts besides introduction:Part I (Chapters 2-3): By making use of investing-producing law, macroscopical economic forecasting, econometrics, system optimization, statistical analysis method, this part, on the premise of predicted development scale of the social economic system, studies the amount of water required by the social economic system and establishes the solving model for it. Meanwhile, in accordance with the principle of protecting current situation of ecological environment, it studies the amount of water consumed in the present ecological environment by making use of the quota law, ecology resuming theory, environmental ecology and information ecology. Besides, by adopting research results available, this part sets up the model for the direct calculation of the amount of water consumed in the ecological environment.Part II (Chapter 4): By making use of the multi-goals dynamic planning theory of the big system, this part, based on both the predicted trend of the development of the social economic system and the current situation of the ecological environment, sets up the model for coordinating these two systems. In addition, on the premise that the average water has been unchangeably certain in total amount for years, it attempts to coordinate the amount of water required in the above-mentioned two systems and ascertains the usable amount of water resources by comparative analysis of water amount.Part III (Chapter 5): Taking Xinjiang, representative of the inland arid areas, as an example, this part, with the help of the models established in the previous parts of the paper, calculates the
amount of water required by the social economic system and consumed in the ecological environment, and the amount of water coordinated in these two systems. By comparative analysis of the calculations, this part puts forwards, in terms of both project measures and non-project measures, the amount usable in Xinjiang to guarantee the social economic development. The conclusion drawn from this case lays a foundation for the sustainable utilization and management of water resources in Northwest arid areas.Part IV (Chapter 6): It makes the conclusion and puts forward the fields of study and break-through points in future research of usable amount of water resources.
论文在研究中,利用系统工程、大系统多目标优化理论、计量经济学和经济预测学等经济理论以及恢复生态学理论,对水资源大系统进行协调研究,全文可以概括为“1条主线,2个侧翼,3个水量”,采用由局部到整体再由整体到局部的研究方法,对水资源可利用量做了初步的研究,研究内容除绪论外可以归结为4大部分:
第一部分:利用投入～产出法、宏观经济预测、计量经济学、系统优化、统计分析方法,在社会经济系统发展规模预测的前提条件下,对社会经济系统自身需水量进行研究,建立社会经济系统自身需水量求解模型。同时,根据生态环境现状保护的原则,利用定额法和恢复生态学、环境生态学以及信息生态学等方法对生态环境系统现状耗水量进行研究,采用前人研究成果,建立生态环境耗水量直接计算模型。这部分包含了论文第二章和第三章的内容。
第二部分:利用大系统多目标优化理论,根据社会经济系统发展预测趋势和生态环境现状条件,建立社会经济系统和生态环境系统协调模型,在多年平均水资源总量一定的前提下,把该水量在社会经济系统和生态环境系统之间分配,找寻社会经济系统和生态环境系统协调水量,并对水量比较分析,确定水资源可利用量。即论文第四章的内容。
第三部分:选择内陆干旱区具有代表性的新疆做实证研究,利用论文建立的模型对社会经济系统自身需水量、生态环境系统自身耗水量以及2系统协调水量进行计算,并对计算结果分析比较,从工程措施和非工程措施2个角度分析新疆可利用量满足社会经济发展需要的保障措施。案例分析的结论为西北干旱区水资源可持续利用、管理奠定了基础。即论文第五章的内容。
第四部分:对论文研究结论进行总结、阐述,提出未来水资源可利用量研究的领域和突破点。即论文第六章的内容。
Seen from research results that can be found at present about usable amount of water resources, methods adopted in the study on usable amount are straight algorithm applied to moist areas and pouring algorithm suitable for areas lacking water. Since either of these two methods deals with a single system, the research results lack binding character. Under the principle of coordination, however, this paper, which is concerned with two major systems of social economy and ecological environment, distributes, by means of dynamic planning theory of the big system, the amount of water required by social economy and consumed in the ecological environment on condition that there is certain amount of water resources.This paper coordinates the research on the big system of water resources by making use of system engineering, big system multi-goals dynamic planning theory, economic theories including econometrics and economic forecasting, and ecology resuming theory. With "one thread, two sidetracks and three water amounts", this paper makes a preliminary research on the usable amount of water resources, which can be divided into following four major parts besides introduction:Part I (Chapters 2-3): By making use of investing-producing law, macroscopical economic forecasting, econometrics, system optimization, statistical analysis method, this part, on the premise of predicted development scale of the social economic system, studies the amount of water required by the social economic system and establishes the solving model for it. Meanwhile, in accordance with the principle of protecting current situation of ecological environment, it studies the amount of water consumed in the present ecological environment by making use of the quota law, ecology resuming theory, environmental ecology and information ecology. Besides, by adopting research results available, this part sets up the model for the direct calculation of the amount of water consumed in the ecological environment.Part II (Chapter 4): By making use of the multi-goals dynamic planning theory of the big system, this part, based on both the predicted trend of the development of the social economic system and the current situation of the ecological environment, sets up the model for coordinating these two systems. In addition, on the premise that the average water has been unchangeably certain in total amount for years, it attempts to coordinate the amount of water required in the above-mentioned two systems and ascertains the usable amount of water resources by comparative analysis of water amount.Part III (Chapter 5): Taking Xinjiang, representative of the inland arid areas, as an example, this part, with the help of the models established in the previous parts of the paper, calculates the
amount of water required by the social economic system and consumed in the ecological environment, and the amount of water coordinated in these two systems. By comparative analysis of the calculations, this part puts forwards, in terms of both project measures and non-project measures, the amount usable in Xinjiang to guarantee the social economic development. The conclusion drawn from this case lays a foundation for the sustainable utilization and management of water resources in Northwest arid areas.Part IV (Chapter 6): It makes the conclusion and puts forward the fields of study and break-through points in future research of usable amount of water resources.
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