中国矿业发展趋势及竞争力评价研究
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摘要
本文总结了英国、美国、加拿大、澳大利亚、日本近200年的矿业发展历程,探讨了矿业发展机理,建立了矿业发展周期模型,将矿业划分为萌芽期、快速发展期、转折期和缓慢下降期(或萎缩期),厘定了矿业内部各行业发展的波次顺序。
本文系统分析了美国54个矿种100年来的消费历史,有46个矿种符合人均矿产资源需求的“S”形轨迹。发现相同用途的矿产资源人均消费顶点到来的时间相近。并将这54个矿种按照顶点到来时间分为九类,与相关产业建立了一一对应的关系,建立了美国矿产资源消费图谱,为分析其他国家矿产资源消费趋势提供了理论支撑。
总结了建国以来中国矿业发展历史,将中国矿业划分为四个阶段：缓慢发展阶段、较快发展阶段、矿业萧条阶段和蓬勃发展阶段。分析了中国矿业产业发展现状、矿业内部结构和矿业空间格局。预测了中国煤炭、石油、天然气、铁、铜、铝、铅、锌、镍、钾盐和水泥共11种矿产未来20年的供需趋势。
测算了未来20年中国11种矿产资源的产值变化趋势,我国矿业产值顶点将在2020年前后到来,届时矿业总产值将达到7万亿元,之后将缓慢下降。建立了涵盖4个层次30个指标构成的矿业竞争力评价指标体系,采用层次分析法对中国、美国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯、加拿大、日本6个国家的矿业竞争力进行了综合评价,找出了这些国家矿业产业的优势和不足。
提出了促进中国可持续发展的建议：(1)积极推动我国矿业产业向海外和我国中西部地区转移；(2)提前制定应对策略,促进各矿业行业的优化升级,提前应对各行业产业顶点的到来；(3)针对我国矿业10年后将迎来缓慢下降期的形势,国家应制定相关的战略、规划和政策,提前应对矿业进入萧条期后所面临的矿业城市可持续发展问题、就业问题、矿业相关产业发展问题；(4)应尽快解决中国矿业集中度低、管理水平差、赢利水平低、“走出去”机制体制不完善等问题；(5)把握未来10年中国矿业持续发展的战略机遇期,建立公平竞争的市场机制,提升民营矿业企业的地位,打造具有现代化管理水平的矿业公司,增强中国矿业的国际竞争力。
This paper summarizes the mining development history of the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan for nearly200years, discusses the mechanism of mining development, establishes a model of mining development cycle, divides mining development cycle into four periods-the sprout period, the rapid-developing period, the transition period and the slow-declining period (or shrinking period), and clarifies the order of the waves of the sectors within the mining industry.
This paper systematically analyzes the consumption history of54minerals for100years in the United States,46of which follow the "S"-shaped law of per capita mineral resource demand, finds that the peaks of per capita consumption of the mineral resource of the same usage arrive at the same time and establishes an atlas for mineral resource consumption by dividing these54kinds of minerals into nine categories on the basis of arrival time of their climax.
This paper sums up China's mining industry development since its foundation, and divides China's mining industry development into four stages:a slow-developing stage, a faster-developing stage, a mining depression stage and a booming stage. This paper also analyses the current situation, internal structure and spatial pattern of China's mining industry.
This paper forecasts the supply and demand trends of11kinds of minerals-coal, oil, natural gas, iron, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc,nickel, potash and cement-in the next20years. In the next10years, the demand gap of coal, oil, natural gas, copper, aluminum, nickel and potash will continue to expand, and the import dependency will continue to rise; the demand gap of iron ore, lead and zinc will reduce and the import dependency will decline.
This paper estimates the production value trend of11kinds of China's mineral resources in the next20years. The climax of China's mining output will arrive around the year2020, when the total mining output will be7trillion yuan, and then it continue to decline. China's20-year mining boom brought by industrialization will be gone forever.
This paper establishes a mining competitiveness evaluation index system which covers30indicates in4levels for the first time, evaluates the mining industry competitiveness of6countries-China, the United States, Australia, Russia, Canada and Japan-with the Analytic Hierarchy Process, and finds out the advantages and disadvantages of mining industry in these countries.
This paper promotes some advices for sustainable development that China should:(1) actively promote China's mining industry to shift to overseas and China's central and western regions;(2) develop coping strategies in advance, and promote the optimization and upgrading of the mining industry to deal with the climax of various of industries;(3) formulate relevant strategies, plans and policies aiming at the slow-declining period of China's mining industry after10years, and deal with the problems after entering the depression period, for example, the sustainable development problem of the mining town, the employment issues and development problem of other mining-related industries;(4) settle the issues of China's mining industry such as low concentration, poor management, low profit level, imperfect system of "going out" mechanism as soon as possible;(5) grasp the strategic opportunities of China's mining industry sustainable development in the next10years, establish the market mechanism of fair competition, elevate the status of private mining enterprise, make a mining company with modern management level, and enhance China's international competitiveness in the mining industry.
本文系统分析了美国54个矿种100年来的消费历史,有46个矿种符合人均矿产资源需求的“S”形轨迹。发现相同用途的矿产资源人均消费顶点到来的时间相近。并将这54个矿种按照顶点到来时间分为九类,与相关产业建立了一一对应的关系,建立了美国矿产资源消费图谱,为分析其他国家矿产资源消费趋势提供了理论支撑。
总结了建国以来中国矿业发展历史,将中国矿业划分为四个阶段：缓慢发展阶段、较快发展阶段、矿业萧条阶段和蓬勃发展阶段。分析了中国矿业产业发展现状、矿业内部结构和矿业空间格局。预测了中国煤炭、石油、天然气、铁、铜、铝、铅、锌、镍、钾盐和水泥共11种矿产未来20年的供需趋势。
测算了未来20年中国11种矿产资源的产值变化趋势,我国矿业产值顶点将在2020年前后到来,届时矿业总产值将达到7万亿元,之后将缓慢下降。建立了涵盖4个层次30个指标构成的矿业竞争力评价指标体系,采用层次分析法对中国、美国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯、加拿大、日本6个国家的矿业竞争力进行了综合评价,找出了这些国家矿业产业的优势和不足。
提出了促进中国可持续发展的建议：(1)积极推动我国矿业产业向海外和我国中西部地区转移；(2)提前制定应对策略,促进各矿业行业的优化升级,提前应对各行业产业顶点的到来；(3)针对我国矿业10年后将迎来缓慢下降期的形势,国家应制定相关的战略、规划和政策,提前应对矿业进入萧条期后所面临的矿业城市可持续发展问题、就业问题、矿业相关产业发展问题；(4)应尽快解决中国矿业集中度低、管理水平差、赢利水平低、“走出去”机制体制不完善等问题；(5)把握未来10年中国矿业持续发展的战略机遇期,建立公平竞争的市场机制,提升民营矿业企业的地位,打造具有现代化管理水平的矿业公司,增强中国矿业的国际竞争力。
This paper summarizes the mining development history of the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan for nearly200years, discusses the mechanism of mining development, establishes a model of mining development cycle, divides mining development cycle into four periods-the sprout period, the rapid-developing period, the transition period and the slow-declining period (or shrinking period), and clarifies the order of the waves of the sectors within the mining industry.
This paper systematically analyzes the consumption history of54minerals for100years in the United States,46of which follow the "S"-shaped law of per capita mineral resource demand, finds that the peaks of per capita consumption of the mineral resource of the same usage arrive at the same time and establishes an atlas for mineral resource consumption by dividing these54kinds of minerals into nine categories on the basis of arrival time of their climax.
This paper sums up China's mining industry development since its foundation, and divides China's mining industry development into four stages:a slow-developing stage, a faster-developing stage, a mining depression stage and a booming stage. This paper also analyses the current situation, internal structure and spatial pattern of China's mining industry.
This paper forecasts the supply and demand trends of11kinds of minerals-coal, oil, natural gas, iron, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc,nickel, potash and cement-in the next20years. In the next10years, the demand gap of coal, oil, natural gas, copper, aluminum, nickel and potash will continue to expand, and the import dependency will continue to rise; the demand gap of iron ore, lead and zinc will reduce and the import dependency will decline.
This paper estimates the production value trend of11kinds of China's mineral resources in the next20years. The climax of China's mining output will arrive around the year2020, when the total mining output will be7trillion yuan, and then it continue to decline. China's20-year mining boom brought by industrialization will be gone forever.
This paper establishes a mining competitiveness evaluation index system which covers30indicates in4levels for the first time, evaluates the mining industry competitiveness of6countries-China, the United States, Australia, Russia, Canada and Japan-with the Analytic Hierarchy Process, and finds out the advantages and disadvantages of mining industry in these countries.
This paper promotes some advices for sustainable development that China should:(1) actively promote China's mining industry to shift to overseas and China's central and western regions;(2) develop coping strategies in advance, and promote the optimization and upgrading of the mining industry to deal with the climax of various of industries;(3) formulate relevant strategies, plans and policies aiming at the slow-declining period of China's mining industry after10years, and deal with the problems after entering the depression period, for example, the sustainable development problem of the mining town, the employment issues and development problem of other mining-related industries;(4) settle the issues of China's mining industry such as low concentration, poor management, low profit level, imperfect system of "going out" mechanism as soon as possible;(5) grasp the strategic opportunities of China's mining industry sustainable development in the next10years, establish the market mechanism of fair competition, elevate the status of private mining enterprise, make a mining company with modern management level, and enhance China's international competitiveness in the mining industry.
引文
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Harvey S P, Lowdon W Lr. Natural resources endowment and regional economic growth [A]. Natural Resources and Economic Growth. New York:Resources of the Future Inc.,1961: 191-211
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John Humphrey, Hubert Schmitz. How does insert in global value chains affect up grading in industrial clusters [J]. Regional Studies,2002,3 (69), pp.1017-1027
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Klepper Steven. Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle [J]. American Economic Review,1996,86 (3):562-583
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Klepper Steven. Firm Survival and the Evolution of Oligopoly [M]. Carnegie Mellon University, Working Paper,1999.
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