风险投资的风险及其防范研究
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摘要
知识经济时代，高新技术产业已逐渐成为经济发展的第一支柱和核心力量，高新技术产业的发展决定了经济的发展。作为高新技术企业发展推进器的风险投资更是倍受世人青睐。影响风险投资能否成功和风险投资业的一个重要因素就是风险投资的风险，本文将从风险投资公司的角度出发，对风险投资的风险进行研究。
文章首先对风险投资的概念、发展、要素、特征、阶段和功能等作了介绍和分析，利用熊彼得的经济发展理论指出风险投资是一种高风险下的金融制度创新。文章对相关风险理论进行叙述后，对风险投资风险进行界定，对其特征进行仔细分析，提出风险投资的风险原理。在重点研究风险投资的风险阶段后，对风险投资中由于信息不对称带来的逆向选择与道德风险作了分析。
文章就影响风险投资项日的定性风险因素展开了深入的讨论，认为风险投资风险因素由技术系统的内在缺陷、行为主体、退出的机制潜力和对环境威胁的抵制能力四部分组成，以此为基础，设计出了风险投资的风险因素指标体系。本文应用模糊数学的有关原理，给出了风险投资风险的模糊综合评判模型。根据这个模型，设计出评判语意量化的梯形模糊数，将Yage R. R提出的顺序加权OWA算子引入模糊集合中，提出Fuzzy OWA算子，并根据OWA算子的顺序特征，通过模糊数排序后，建立风险投资风险的Fuzzy OWA测度模型。
在风险测度的基础上，介绍了风险投资的风险决策方法。针对如何防范风险投资的风险，提出了一些对策和办法，并对风险投资过程的风险防范，以及风险投资公司对风险企业的风险控制作了研究，最后提出风险防范建议。
In the era of knowledge-driven economy, high-tech industry has become the first support and main power to economy development, and the development of high-tech industry is most determining the development of economy. The Venture Capital (VC), which is the propeller to the high-tech enterprises, is favor by the people day after day. A major factor to getting success in VC is its risks. This text researched the risks of VC from the point of the VC Company.
At the first, VC's concept, development, essential factors, feature, courses and functions had been introduced concisely. Studied of the Schumpeter J.A. economics development theory, pointed out that VC is an innovation of financial system. After depiction of the corresponding risk theory, definted the risk of VC, and analyzed the risk properties, then brought forward the risk principles. Used a new model to study the risk phase carefully, analyzed the adverse selection and the morality hazard, which bring out by the information dissymmetry in VC.
In this paper, the risk factors of VC were discussed in-depth. Basic of the former researcher's work, found out the risk factors indexes, and designed the factors indexes system. Used the fuzzy mathematics theory, presented the fuzzy comprehensive judgment model of the risk in VC. According to this model, designed the linguistic echelon fuzzy numbers, and introduced the Ordered Weight Averaging (OWA) operator to the fuzzy aggregate, got the fuzzy OWA operator. After the comparison of the fuzzy numbers, set up the risk fuzzy owa measure method of VC.
Basic of the risk measure, introduced the risk decision ways in VC. In accordance to avoid the risks, some countermeasures and methods were brought forward. By the VC Company, studied about how to avoidant the risks in the invest process and how to control the risks in the risk company. Finally, Got some suggestions to avoid the VC risks.
文章首先对风险投资的概念、发展、要素、特征、阶段和功能等作了介绍和分析，利用熊彼得的经济发展理论指出风险投资是一种高风险下的金融制度创新。文章对相关风险理论进行叙述后，对风险投资风险进行界定，对其特征进行仔细分析，提出风险投资的风险原理。在重点研究风险投资的风险阶段后，对风险投资中由于信息不对称带来的逆向选择与道德风险作了分析。
文章就影响风险投资项日的定性风险因素展开了深入的讨论，认为风险投资风险因素由技术系统的内在缺陷、行为主体、退出的机制潜力和对环境威胁的抵制能力四部分组成，以此为基础，设计出了风险投资的风险因素指标体系。本文应用模糊数学的有关原理，给出了风险投资风险的模糊综合评判模型。根据这个模型，设计出评判语意量化的梯形模糊数，将Yage R. R提出的顺序加权OWA算子引入模糊集合中，提出Fuzzy OWA算子，并根据OWA算子的顺序特征，通过模糊数排序后，建立风险投资风险的Fuzzy OWA测度模型。
在风险测度的基础上，介绍了风险投资的风险决策方法。针对如何防范风险投资的风险，提出了一些对策和办法，并对风险投资过程的风险防范，以及风险投资公司对风险企业的风险控制作了研究，最后提出风险防范建议。
In the era of knowledge-driven economy, high-tech industry has become the first support and main power to economy development, and the development of high-tech industry is most determining the development of economy. The Venture Capital (VC), which is the propeller to the high-tech enterprises, is favor by the people day after day. A major factor to getting success in VC is its risks. This text researched the risks of VC from the point of the VC Company.
At the first, VC's concept, development, essential factors, feature, courses and functions had been introduced concisely. Studied of the Schumpeter J.A. economics development theory, pointed out that VC is an innovation of financial system. After depiction of the corresponding risk theory, definted the risk of VC, and analyzed the risk properties, then brought forward the risk principles. Used a new model to study the risk phase carefully, analyzed the adverse selection and the morality hazard, which bring out by the information dissymmetry in VC.
In this paper, the risk factors of VC were discussed in-depth. Basic of the former researcher's work, found out the risk factors indexes, and designed the factors indexes system. Used the fuzzy mathematics theory, presented the fuzzy comprehensive judgment model of the risk in VC. According to this model, designed the linguistic echelon fuzzy numbers, and introduced the Ordered Weight Averaging (OWA) operator to the fuzzy aggregate, got the fuzzy OWA operator. After the comparison of the fuzzy numbers, set up the risk fuzzy owa measure method of VC.
Basic of the risk measure, introduced the risk decision ways in VC. In accordance to avoid the risks, some countermeasures and methods were brought forward. By the VC Company, studied about how to avoidant the risks in the invest process and how to control the risks in the risk company. Finally, Got some suggestions to avoid the VC risks.
引文
[1] 刘曼红，风险投资：创新与金融，第1版，北京，中国人民大学出版社，1998年10月
[2] Tyebjee and Bruno, A Model of Venture Capitalist Investment Activity, Management Sci., 1984, 30(9), 1051-1066
[3] MacMillan, Siegel, and Subba Narasimha, Criteria Used by Venture Capitalists to Evaluate New Venture Proposals , 1985
[4] MacMillan, Zemannl, and Subba Narasimha, Criteria Distinguishing Successful From Unsuccessful Ventures in the Venture Screening Process, 1987
[5] Vance H. Fried and Robert D.Hisrich, The Venture Capitalist: A Relationship Investor, 1995
[6] Edward B. Roberts , High Stakes for High-tech Entrepreneurs: Understanding Venture CapitalDecision Making, 1991
[7] Joshua Lerner , The Syndication of Venture Capital Investments, 1984
[8] Vance H. Fried and Robert D. Hisrich, Toward a Model of Venture Capital Investment Decision Making, 1994
[9] Robert Polk, Richard E. Plank, David A. Reid , Technical Risk and New Product Success: An Empirical Test In High Technology Business Markets, 1996
[10] 李建华和葛宝山，管理百科，高技术产业化风险投资的风险评估与防范，1994.6
[11] 尹淑娅，风险投资中创业企业价值评估模型及其应用。中国软科学，1996，6，78-79
[12] 唐翰岫，风险投资决策，山东人民出版社，2002年5月。
[13] 《证券时报》2001年6月1日报道
[14] 成思危，积极稳妥地推进我国的风险投资事业，管理世界，1999.1
[15] 吕炜，风险投资的经济学考察，经济科学出版社，2001年7月
[16] Schumpeter, Joseph A., 1934. The Theory of Economic Development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
[17] 周慧玲，风险管理学，武汉测绘科技大学出版社，1996 .10
[18] 程德兴，企业风险财务管理研究，石油工业出版社，1998.7
[19] 卢有杰，卢家仪，项日风险管理，清华大学出版社，1998.7
[20] 何文炯，风险管理，东北财经大学出版社，1999年7月，第11～12页
[21] 李少平，生物技术产业的风险投资，财经科学，2003.5（增刊），即发
[22] 王战营，谷建全，高科技术产业风险投资研究，中国科技出版社，2000年6月，第48～49页
[23] 范柏乃，沈荣芳，马庆国，风险投资市场体系及相关法律制度研究，同济大学学报（社科版），2001，4
[24] 张维迎，博奕论与信息经济学，上海三联出版社, 1996
[25] Hoffman, CA., The Venture Capital Investment Process: A Particular Aspect of Regional Economic Development. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Uni. Texas, Austin, 1972.
[26] Wells, W.A., Venture Capital Decision Making. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Carnegie-Mellon uni., 1974
[27] Poinderter, J.B., The Efficiency of Financial Markets: The Venture Capital Case. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, New York Uni., New york, 1976
[28] Dorsey, T.K., The Measurement and Assessment of Capital Requirements, Investment Liquidity and Risk for the Management of Venture Capital Funds. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Uni. Texas, Austin, 1977.
[29] Timmons and Gumpert, Discard Many Old Rules about Getting Venture Capital. Harvard Business Rev., 1982, 60(1)
[30] Roby. L., The role of the Venture Capital in the Entrepreneurial Process. Corporate Creativity, Praeger Editiorial, New York, 1984
[31] Cole, G. A., Management: Theory and Practice. 5th Edition, London: DP Publication, 1996
[32] Cooper, R. G., The Product Process: A Decision Guide for Management. J. Marketing Management, Spring 1988, No.3
[33] Kotler, p., Marketing Management: Analysis, Planning, Implementation, and Control. 9th Edition, Prentice Hall, Inc., 1997
[34] Slater, S. F., Competing in High Velocity Markets. Industry Marking Management, 1993, 24
[35] Amit, R., Glosten, L., and Muller, E., Dose Venture Capital Foster the Most Promising Entrepreneurial Firms? California Management Review, Spring 1990
[36] Sandberg, W.A., and Hofer, C. W., Improving New Venture Performance: The Role of Strategy, Industry Structure and the Entrepreneur. J. Business Venture, 1987
[37] Bruch, J., Entrepreneurship. John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1984
[38] Handy, C., Understanding Organizations. 3rd Edition, 1993, Penguin
[39] Informatics Holdings Ltd., Management II. 1st Edition, Informatics Holdings Ltd., Singapore
[40] Zider, B, How Venture Capital Works. Harvard Business Review, November-December, 1998, P131-139
[41] Gompers, P. A. Optimal Investment, Monitor, and the Staging of Venture Capital. J. Finance, 1995, L(5): 1461-1489
Wetzel, W. E., Informal Risk Capital in New England. In Frontiers of Entrepreneurship
[42] Research, K. H. Vesper(Ed.), Babson College, Wellesley, Mass., 1981, P217-245
[43] Brealey, R., and Myers, S., Principles of Corporate Finance. 5th Edition, New York : McGraw-Hill, 1996
[44] Black, B. S., and Gilson, R. J., Venture Capital and the Structure of Capital Markets: Bank Versus Stock Markets. J. Financial Economics, 1998
[45] Trester, J. J., Venture Capital Contracting Under Asymmetric Information. Wharton Working Paper, 1993
[46] Gompers, P. A., Ownership and Control in Entrepreneur Firms: An Examination of Convertible Securities in Venture Capital Investments. Harvard Uni., Working Paper, Sep., 1997
[47] Keelye, R. H., Knapp, R., and Rothe, High Tech vs. Nonhigh Tech, Venture Capital vs. Non- venture Capital: Sorting out the Effents. Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Research, Babson College, Wellesley, MA, 1996
[48] Cooper, R. G., and Kleinschmidt, J., New Product Process at Leading Industry Firms. Industry Marketing Management, 5, 1991
[49] Golder, P. N., and Tellis, G. J., Pioneer Advantage: Marketing Logic or Marketing Legend? J. Marketing Res., 1993, 39
[50] 谢季坚，刘承平，模糊数学方法及其利用，华中科技大学出版社，2000.5
[51] Yager R.R. On ordered weighted averaging aggregation operators in multi-criteria decision making [J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 1988, 18(2):183-190.
[52] Yager R.R. Families of OWA operators [J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1993, 59(2): 125-148.
[53] L. A. Zadeh. A Computation Approach to Fuzzy Quantifiers in Natural Language. Comput. Math., 1983. 4
[54] O'Hagon, M., Agregation with Maximum Entropy Ordered Weighted Averages, Int. J. of Man-Machine Studies.
[55] O'Hagon, M., Agregation Template Rule Antecedents in Real-time Expent Systems with Fuzzy Set Logic, Proceedings 22nd Annual IEEE Asilomar Conf., On Signals, Systems and Computer, Pacific Grove, CA., 1988
[56] 56肖四汉，具有不同形式偏好信息的群决策理论与方法研究[D]，沈阳，东北大学，2001.
[57] 57樊治平，姜艳萍，肖四汉，控制与决策，2001年11月，第16卷增刊
[58] Yager R. R. Fuzzy Decision Making Include Unequal Objectives, Fuzzy Sets and Syst., Vol. 1, pp. 87-89,1978
S. Murakami, S. Maeda and S. Imamura, Fuzzy Decision Analysis on the Development of Centralized Regional Energy Control System, IFAC Symp. ON Fuzzy Inform. Knowledge
[59] Representation and Decision Anal, p.363-368, 1983
[60] 美国菲利浦，乔瑞著，张海鱼等译，VAR：风险价值，中信出版社。
[61] 苏永江、李湛，风险投资决策问题研究，科学学与科学技术管理，2001.2
[62] 刘国新，梁靖廷，潘祥杰，基于期权理论的风险投资决策分析，价值工程，2002，6
[63] Chan, Y. S., Venture Capital Contracting Under Asymmeric Information. Wharton Working Paper, 1993
[64] Sahlman, W. A., The Structure and Government of Venture Capital Organization. J. Financial Economics, 1994
[2] Tyebjee and Bruno, A Model of Venture Capitalist Investment Activity, Management Sci., 1984, 30(9), 1051-1066
[3] MacMillan, Siegel, and Subba Narasimha, Criteria Used by Venture Capitalists to Evaluate New Venture Proposals , 1985
[4] MacMillan, Zemannl, and Subba Narasimha, Criteria Distinguishing Successful From Unsuccessful Ventures in the Venture Screening Process, 1987
[5] Vance H. Fried and Robert D.Hisrich, The Venture Capitalist: A Relationship Investor, 1995
[6] Edward B. Roberts , High Stakes for High-tech Entrepreneurs: Understanding Venture CapitalDecision Making, 1991
[7] Joshua Lerner , The Syndication of Venture Capital Investments, 1984
[8] Vance H. Fried and Robert D. Hisrich, Toward a Model of Venture Capital Investment Decision Making, 1994
[9] Robert Polk, Richard E. Plank, David A. Reid , Technical Risk and New Product Success: An Empirical Test In High Technology Business Markets, 1996
[10] 李建华和葛宝山，管理百科，高技术产业化风险投资的风险评估与防范，1994.6
[11] 尹淑娅，风险投资中创业企业价值评估模型及其应用。中国软科学，1996，6，78-79
[12] 唐翰岫，风险投资决策，山东人民出版社，2002年5月。
[13] 《证券时报》2001年6月1日报道
[14] 成思危，积极稳妥地推进我国的风险投资事业，管理世界，1999.1
[15] 吕炜，风险投资的经济学考察，经济科学出版社，2001年7月
[16] Schumpeter, Joseph A., 1934. The Theory of Economic Development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
[17] 周慧玲，风险管理学，武汉测绘科技大学出版社，1996 .10
[18] 程德兴，企业风险财务管理研究，石油工业出版社，1998.7
[19] 卢有杰，卢家仪，项日风险管理，清华大学出版社，1998.7
[20] 何文炯，风险管理，东北财经大学出版社，1999年7月，第11～12页
[21] 李少平，生物技术产业的风险投资，财经科学，2003.5（增刊），即发
[22] 王战营，谷建全，高科技术产业风险投资研究，中国科技出版社，2000年6月，第48～49页
[23] 范柏乃，沈荣芳，马庆国，风险投资市场体系及相关法律制度研究，同济大学学报（社科版），2001，4
[24] 张维迎，博奕论与信息经济学，上海三联出版社, 1996
[25] Hoffman, CA., The Venture Capital Investment Process: A Particular Aspect of Regional Economic Development. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Uni. Texas, Austin, 1972.
[26] Wells, W.A., Venture Capital Decision Making. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Carnegie-Mellon uni., 1974
[27] Poinderter, J.B., The Efficiency of Financial Markets: The Venture Capital Case. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, New York Uni., New york, 1976
[28] Dorsey, T.K., The Measurement and Assessment of Capital Requirements, Investment Liquidity and Risk for the Management of Venture Capital Funds. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Uni. Texas, Austin, 1977.
[29] Timmons and Gumpert, Discard Many Old Rules about Getting Venture Capital. Harvard Business Rev., 1982, 60(1)
[30] Roby. L., The role of the Venture Capital in the Entrepreneurial Process. Corporate Creativity, Praeger Editiorial, New York, 1984
[31] Cole, G. A., Management: Theory and Practice. 5th Edition, London: DP Publication, 1996
[32] Cooper, R. G., The Product Process: A Decision Guide for Management. J. Marketing Management, Spring 1988, No.3
[33] Kotler, p., Marketing Management: Analysis, Planning, Implementation, and Control. 9th Edition, Prentice Hall, Inc., 1997
[34] Slater, S. F., Competing in High Velocity Markets. Industry Marking Management, 1993, 24
[35] Amit, R., Glosten, L., and Muller, E., Dose Venture Capital Foster the Most Promising Entrepreneurial Firms? California Management Review, Spring 1990
[36] Sandberg, W.A., and Hofer, C. W., Improving New Venture Performance: The Role of Strategy, Industry Structure and the Entrepreneur. J. Business Venture, 1987
[37] Bruch, J., Entrepreneurship. John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1984
[38] Handy, C., Understanding Organizations. 3rd Edition, 1993, Penguin
[39] Informatics Holdings Ltd., Management II. 1st Edition, Informatics Holdings Ltd., Singapore
[40] Zider, B, How Venture Capital Works. Harvard Business Review, November-December, 1998, P131-139
[41] Gompers, P. A. Optimal Investment, Monitor, and the Staging of Venture Capital. J. Finance, 1995, L(5): 1461-1489
Wetzel, W. E., Informal Risk Capital in New England. In Frontiers of Entrepreneurship
[42] Research, K. H. Vesper(Ed.), Babson College, Wellesley, Mass., 1981, P217-245
[43] Brealey, R., and Myers, S., Principles of Corporate Finance. 5th Edition, New York : McGraw-Hill, 1996
[44] Black, B. S., and Gilson, R. J., Venture Capital and the Structure of Capital Markets: Bank Versus Stock Markets. J. Financial Economics, 1998
[45] Trester, J. J., Venture Capital Contracting Under Asymmetric Information. Wharton Working Paper, 1993
[46] Gompers, P. A., Ownership and Control in Entrepreneur Firms: An Examination of Convertible Securities in Venture Capital Investments. Harvard Uni., Working Paper, Sep., 1997
[47] Keelye, R. H., Knapp, R., and Rothe, High Tech vs. Nonhigh Tech, Venture Capital vs. Non- venture Capital: Sorting out the Effents. Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Research, Babson College, Wellesley, MA, 1996
[48] Cooper, R. G., and Kleinschmidt, J., New Product Process at Leading Industry Firms. Industry Marketing Management, 5, 1991
[49] Golder, P. N., and Tellis, G. J., Pioneer Advantage: Marketing Logic or Marketing Legend? J. Marketing Res., 1993, 39
[50] 谢季坚，刘承平，模糊数学方法及其利用，华中科技大学出版社，2000.5
[51] Yager R.R. On ordered weighted averaging aggregation operators in multi-criteria decision making [J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 1988, 18(2):183-190.
[52] Yager R.R. Families of OWA operators [J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1993, 59(2): 125-148.
[53] L. A. Zadeh. A Computation Approach to Fuzzy Quantifiers in Natural Language. Comput. Math., 1983. 4
[54] O'Hagon, M., Agregation with Maximum Entropy Ordered Weighted Averages, Int. J. of Man-Machine Studies.
[55] O'Hagon, M., Agregation Template Rule Antecedents in Real-time Expent Systems with Fuzzy Set Logic, Proceedings 22nd Annual IEEE Asilomar Conf., On Signals, Systems and Computer, Pacific Grove, CA., 1988
[56] 56肖四汉，具有不同形式偏好信息的群决策理论与方法研究[D]，沈阳，东北大学，2001.
[57] 57樊治平，姜艳萍，肖四汉，控制与决策，2001年11月，第16卷增刊
[58] Yager R. R. Fuzzy Decision Making Include Unequal Objectives, Fuzzy Sets and Syst., Vol. 1, pp. 87-89,1978
S. Murakami, S. Maeda and S. Imamura, Fuzzy Decision Analysis on the Development of Centralized Regional Energy Control System, IFAC Symp. ON Fuzzy Inform. Knowledge
[59] Representation and Decision Anal, p.363-368, 1983
[60] 美国菲利浦，乔瑞著，张海鱼等译，VAR：风险价值，中信出版社。
[61] 苏永江、李湛，风险投资决策问题研究，科学学与科学技术管理，2001.2
[62] 刘国新，梁靖廷，潘祥杰，基于期权理论的风险投资决策分析，价值工程，2002，6
[63] Chan, Y. S., Venture Capital Contracting Under Asymmeric Information. Wharton Working Paper, 1993
[64] Sahlman, W. A., The Structure and Government of Venture Capital Organization. J. Financial Economics, 1994