对一次大别山中尺度强对流系统的水分循环过程和非绝热加热过程的分析研究
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摘要
从过去几年的统计来看,我国24小时的天气晴雨预报准确率平均已达到83%,但暴雨预报的准确率只有19%。主要原因是强暴雨常与中-β尺度天气系统有关,常规观测网络很难对此类系统给出迅速、准确的响应,数值模式系统也由于初始场的不精确和模式本身的不完善,很难做出准确预报。因此实施有效的中尺度观测,获取丰富的三维气象资料并加以整合利用,对深入研究暴雨的结构和机理显的尤为重要。水汽的辐合和强烈的上升运动在有利的环境条件下将引起积云对流的发展,积云对流通过水汽的辐合上升、凝结释放大量潜热来影响大尺度环境场,并反馈于中尺度系统本身；微物理过程中水物质的相变潜热和降水产生的拖曳对环境的热力动力过程也有不可忽视的作用,因此研究降水过程中热量、水汽收支状况以及系统中云物理过程及其与环境场间的相互作用是研究中尺度暴雨发生发展机理的重要组成部分。
但是始终没有学者能够将水分循环和非绝热加热过程联系起来,深入讨论水物质和热量之间的关系及对暴雨形成的作用。因此本文使用LAPS系统融合中国SCHeREX计划野外试验中获取的丰富资料生成的格点分辨率为0.03°×0.03°、垂直方向22层、每小时一次的高分辨率中尺度再分析场资料,详细讨论水汽收支方程各项对2008年6月21日大别山地区一次局地性低涡暴雨过程降水的贡献,分析了降水区水汽收入及空中各相态水物质的量值及转化关系；然后借助对暴雨区视热源和视水汽汇的计算分析降水过程中非绝热加热状况,讨论热量与水汽收支之间的关系。通过以上分析研究,论文首先验证了LAPS系统具有良好的数据融合能力和中尺度系统再现能力,其生成的再分析资料可以作为中尺度分析的基础数据使用,并据此揭示了此次中尺度低涡暴雨能量和水分循环方面的特征及与强降水的内在联系,给出相应的概念模型。
理论计算结果得到总水汽收入产生的降水量(2.42 mm/h)占实际降水量(3.16mm/h)的77%,地表水汽蒸发也是一个重要的水汽来源。水平辐合项贡献总水汽收入的87%,西边界和南边界为主要入流边界,辐合主要在中低层进行；局地变化项贡献总水汽收入的12%；低层水汽通量和局地水汽收入极大值分别出现强降水发生前5小时和1.5小时,前期的水汽水平辐合和局地水汽收入为后期水汽垂直输送和水汽通量的垂直辐合提供了大量水汽来源。强对流云团内整层气柱水汽总收入的变化领先于地面降水量变化1.5小时出现,说明进入强对流云团气柱中所有高度水汽凝结降落到地面的平均时间约为1.5小时。过程平均来看水汽共减小了2.42mm的比水含量,使大气中云粒子增加了0.228mm的比水含量,可降水粒子增加0.042mm比水含量,最终贡献了2.15mm的地面降水量。雪含量极值出现在最强降水时刻,云冰迅速减少时降水减弱,说明冰相粒子在此次降水过程中的重要作用。液态云水和云冰极大值分别出现在强降水发生前4小时和2小时,对降水有一定指示意义。
平原地区水汽凝结释放潜热为加热场主要贡献因子,山区感热作用和冰相粒子潜热作用不可忽略。垂直廓线上Q2存在两个与水汽通量散度辐合中心相对应的峰值,低层强水汽辐合造成大量水汽汇集并凝结释放潜热,造成Q2凝结层以下的中心,而雪融化吸收大量热量,抵消了部分水汽凝结潜热,故Q1在低层显著小于Q2；凝结层以上的Q2高层中心在最大上升速度层,水汽被迅速抬升大量凝结加热大气,同时大量冰晶消耗过冷云水长大也造成水汽含量的减少和热量的增加,这两种加热效应叠加造成高层Q1大值中心大于Q2大值中心。
强降水过程显著区别一般降水区的特征：a)550hPa以下水汽辐合强烈,b)250hPa以上冰晶层和550-250hPa冰水混合层中云冰浓度均很高,c)500-300hPa间雪含量较多,d)500hPa以下云水含量丰富,e)对流层低层视水汽汇显著,f)系统成熟时刻对流层中高层加热显著。
研究中尺度涡旋系统与强对流系统相互作用的过程发现：气旋性辐合环流从低层逐渐向上发展,使得垂直运动加强,并有利于水汽的凝结和潜热释放及加热高度的增加,中层加热反过来加强上升运动,进一步促使低层湿空气辐合,有利于对流不稳定的发展和气旋性环流的增强,并使得气旋系统逐渐靠近强对流系统,这个正反馈过程使得降水持续发生,直到加热高度抬升至不利于低空环流的发展,两系统逐渐远离并减弱,降水也逐渐减弱。
The statistics results show, the accuracy of 24-hour precipitation forecast in China is up to 83%; but the accuracy of heavy rainfall is only 19%, mainly due to the relationship between heavy rainfall ant meso-βscale weather systems, hard to be rapidly and accurately captured by conventional observation networks. Due to imprecise initial field and deficiency of model itself, the numerical model system can not give accurate forecast to heavy rainfall too. Therefore, carrying up effective mesoscale observations, getting plenty of three-dimensional meteorological data and amalgamating them are very important in studying of the structure and mechanism of heavy rain. Under favorable environmental conditions the strong water vapor convergence and upward motion will cause the development of cumulus convective clouds. Through water vapor convergence, rising and condensation to release a large amount of latent heat, the cumulus convection affects the large-scale environmental field, and feedback to the meso-scale system itself. The latent heat released and absorbed by the phase transition of water substances and drag action caused by precipitation have significant affect in the thermal and dynamic process of environment. Therefore, the study of heat, water vapor budgets, cloud microphysical process and the interaction between them and the environmental field are very important component parts in the study on the occurrence and development of meso-scale heavy rainfall.
But few scholar links the-water cycle and the diabatic heating, to discuss the their relationship and affects to heavy rainfall forms. In this thesis, LAPS data comes from the southern China heavy rainfall experiment (SCHeREX). During SCHeREX, we obtained abundant high spatial and temporal resolution 3D reanalysis data range of 113-119.57°E,28.5-34.02°N, horizontal resolution 0.03°x0:03°, vertical resolution of 22 layers and time resolution of 1 hour:By using the LAPS reanalysis data, we analyze the contribution to pricipitation of each items in water vapor budget, the amount of water vapor income and water substances and the phase transition among them. By calculating the budgets of apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink we analyze the diabatic heating characteristics and the relationship between heat and moisture. This thesis proves the ability of LAPS to assimilate data and describe the meso-scale system, its high resolution reanalysis data can be used as basic data for meso-scale meteorological analysis. According to the above anaysis, we reveal the inherent relationship between the water cycle and heating processes and the heavy rainfall.
The theoretical calculated precipitation generated by total water vapor budget is 2.42 mm/h, accounting for 77% of actual precipitation (3.16 mm/h), and the eyaporation from surface ground is also an important source of vapor.87% of the water vapor income is contributed by the horizontal convergence term. The horizontal convergence which is mostly caused by wind convergence mainly occurs in middle and lower level. The western and southern boundaries are the major inflow boundaries. The local change term accounts for 12% of the total water vapor income. The maxima of flux divergence in low level and local income of water vapor appear 5 and 1.5 hours before the strongest precipitation moment respectively. Horizontal convergence and local change of water vapor in early period supply a large amount of water vapor for the vertical transportation and convergence of water vapor in late period. In the whole gas column averaged, the changes of water vapor income appear 1.5 hours ahead of precipitation changes, showing that in severe convective cloud system, the average time from water vapor in all height of air column condensation to falling to ground surface is about 1.5 hours. Water vapor decreases 2.42mm water content, causing 0.228mm water content increase of cloud particles and 0.042mm water content increase of precipitation particles, and eventually contributes to 2.15mm ground surface precipitation. The maximum of snow content appears just at the s heaviest rainfall moment; precipitation decrease when cloud ice content decreases rapidly, showing the ice-phase particles have important roles in this precipitation process. The maxima of cloud water and cloud ice appear 4 and 2 hours before the heaviest rainfall moment respectively, having certain forecasting significance for precipitation.
In plain areas, the heat release of vapor condensation plays a major role to heating field; in mountain regions, the effect of sensible heat and ice-phase substance latent heat are not negligible. There are two peaks on the vertical profile of Q2, corresponding to the large value centers of water vapor flux convergence. Strong water vapor convergence causes a large amount of water vapor assembles and condenses to release latent heat in low level, forming the Q2 peak under 0℃layer. In this layer, melting snow absorbs great amount of heat, so Q1 is significantly smaller than Q2 in low layer. The other Q2 peak is located at maximum layer of vertical velocity. Water vapor is rapidly uplifted and condenses to heating the atmosphere. Simultaneously, many ice crystals grow up, casing the decrease of water vapor and the increase of heat. The combined effect leads to Q1 is bigger than Q2 in high layer.
The characteristics of heavy rainfall process different from weak rainfall are is as follows:(a) the water vapor convergence is significant bellow 550hPa layer. (b) Cloud ice concentration in the ice crystal layer above 250hPa and mixed layer between 550-250hPa is very high (c) Snow concentration between 550-300hPa layer is relatively high. (d) Liquid cloud water is rich below the 500hPa layer. (e) The apparent moisture is significant in low layer. (f) The heating is notable in mid and high layer, in system matured moment.
According to study for the interaction process between the mesoscale vortex system and severe convective system, we find that, cyclonic and convergent vortex system develops gradually from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere, strengthening vertical upward movement, increasing the amount of water vapor condensation and latent heat release, and uplifting the heating height. All of these are beneficial to the convergence of moisture air in low layer, and then firm the development of convective instability and the strengthening of cyclonic vortex. This positive feedback makes the precipitation process continues, until the height of heating is not conducive to the development of low-level circulation. Then the strong convective system moves away from cyclone system, and precipitation decreases gradually.
但是始终没有学者能够将水分循环和非绝热加热过程联系起来,深入讨论水物质和热量之间的关系及对暴雨形成的作用。因此本文使用LAPS系统融合中国SCHeREX计划野外试验中获取的丰富资料生成的格点分辨率为0.03°×0.03°、垂直方向22层、每小时一次的高分辨率中尺度再分析场资料,详细讨论水汽收支方程各项对2008年6月21日大别山地区一次局地性低涡暴雨过程降水的贡献,分析了降水区水汽收入及空中各相态水物质的量值及转化关系；然后借助对暴雨区视热源和视水汽汇的计算分析降水过程中非绝热加热状况,讨论热量与水汽收支之间的关系。通过以上分析研究,论文首先验证了LAPS系统具有良好的数据融合能力和中尺度系统再现能力,其生成的再分析资料可以作为中尺度分析的基础数据使用,并据此揭示了此次中尺度低涡暴雨能量和水分循环方面的特征及与强降水的内在联系,给出相应的概念模型。
理论计算结果得到总水汽收入产生的降水量(2.42 mm/h)占实际降水量(3.16mm/h)的77%,地表水汽蒸发也是一个重要的水汽来源。水平辐合项贡献总水汽收入的87%,西边界和南边界为主要入流边界,辐合主要在中低层进行；局地变化项贡献总水汽收入的12%；低层水汽通量和局地水汽收入极大值分别出现强降水发生前5小时和1.5小时,前期的水汽水平辐合和局地水汽收入为后期水汽垂直输送和水汽通量的垂直辐合提供了大量水汽来源。强对流云团内整层气柱水汽总收入的变化领先于地面降水量变化1.5小时出现,说明进入强对流云团气柱中所有高度水汽凝结降落到地面的平均时间约为1.5小时。过程平均来看水汽共减小了2.42mm的比水含量,使大气中云粒子增加了0.228mm的比水含量,可降水粒子增加0.042mm比水含量,最终贡献了2.15mm的地面降水量。雪含量极值出现在最强降水时刻,云冰迅速减少时降水减弱,说明冰相粒子在此次降水过程中的重要作用。液态云水和云冰极大值分别出现在强降水发生前4小时和2小时,对降水有一定指示意义。
平原地区水汽凝结释放潜热为加热场主要贡献因子,山区感热作用和冰相粒子潜热作用不可忽略。垂直廓线上Q2存在两个与水汽通量散度辐合中心相对应的峰值,低层强水汽辐合造成大量水汽汇集并凝结释放潜热,造成Q2凝结层以下的中心,而雪融化吸收大量热量,抵消了部分水汽凝结潜热,故Q1在低层显著小于Q2；凝结层以上的Q2高层中心在最大上升速度层,水汽被迅速抬升大量凝结加热大气,同时大量冰晶消耗过冷云水长大也造成水汽含量的减少和热量的增加,这两种加热效应叠加造成高层Q1大值中心大于Q2大值中心。
强降水过程显著区别一般降水区的特征：a)550hPa以下水汽辐合强烈,b)250hPa以上冰晶层和550-250hPa冰水混合层中云冰浓度均很高,c)500-300hPa间雪含量较多,d)500hPa以下云水含量丰富,e)对流层低层视水汽汇显著,f)系统成熟时刻对流层中高层加热显著。
研究中尺度涡旋系统与强对流系统相互作用的过程发现：气旋性辐合环流从低层逐渐向上发展,使得垂直运动加强,并有利于水汽的凝结和潜热释放及加热高度的增加,中层加热反过来加强上升运动,进一步促使低层湿空气辐合,有利于对流不稳定的发展和气旋性环流的增强,并使得气旋系统逐渐靠近强对流系统,这个正反馈过程使得降水持续发生,直到加热高度抬升至不利于低空环流的发展,两系统逐渐远离并减弱,降水也逐渐减弱。
The statistics results show, the accuracy of 24-hour precipitation forecast in China is up to 83%; but the accuracy of heavy rainfall is only 19%, mainly due to the relationship between heavy rainfall ant meso-βscale weather systems, hard to be rapidly and accurately captured by conventional observation networks. Due to imprecise initial field and deficiency of model itself, the numerical model system can not give accurate forecast to heavy rainfall too. Therefore, carrying up effective mesoscale observations, getting plenty of three-dimensional meteorological data and amalgamating them are very important in studying of the structure and mechanism of heavy rain. Under favorable environmental conditions the strong water vapor convergence and upward motion will cause the development of cumulus convective clouds. Through water vapor convergence, rising and condensation to release a large amount of latent heat, the cumulus convection affects the large-scale environmental field, and feedback to the meso-scale system itself. The latent heat released and absorbed by the phase transition of water substances and drag action caused by precipitation have significant affect in the thermal and dynamic process of environment. Therefore, the study of heat, water vapor budgets, cloud microphysical process and the interaction between them and the environmental field are very important component parts in the study on the occurrence and development of meso-scale heavy rainfall.
But few scholar links the-water cycle and the diabatic heating, to discuss the their relationship and affects to heavy rainfall forms. In this thesis, LAPS data comes from the southern China heavy rainfall experiment (SCHeREX). During SCHeREX, we obtained abundant high spatial and temporal resolution 3D reanalysis data range of 113-119.57°E,28.5-34.02°N, horizontal resolution 0.03°x0:03°, vertical resolution of 22 layers and time resolution of 1 hour:By using the LAPS reanalysis data, we analyze the contribution to pricipitation of each items in water vapor budget, the amount of water vapor income and water substances and the phase transition among them. By calculating the budgets of apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink we analyze the diabatic heating characteristics and the relationship between heat and moisture. This thesis proves the ability of LAPS to assimilate data and describe the meso-scale system, its high resolution reanalysis data can be used as basic data for meso-scale meteorological analysis. According to the above anaysis, we reveal the inherent relationship between the water cycle and heating processes and the heavy rainfall.
The theoretical calculated precipitation generated by total water vapor budget is 2.42 mm/h, accounting for 77% of actual precipitation (3.16 mm/h), and the eyaporation from surface ground is also an important source of vapor.87% of the water vapor income is contributed by the horizontal convergence term. The horizontal convergence which is mostly caused by wind convergence mainly occurs in middle and lower level. The western and southern boundaries are the major inflow boundaries. The local change term accounts for 12% of the total water vapor income. The maxima of flux divergence in low level and local income of water vapor appear 5 and 1.5 hours before the strongest precipitation moment respectively. Horizontal convergence and local change of water vapor in early period supply a large amount of water vapor for the vertical transportation and convergence of water vapor in late period. In the whole gas column averaged, the changes of water vapor income appear 1.5 hours ahead of precipitation changes, showing that in severe convective cloud system, the average time from water vapor in all height of air column condensation to falling to ground surface is about 1.5 hours. Water vapor decreases 2.42mm water content, causing 0.228mm water content increase of cloud particles and 0.042mm water content increase of precipitation particles, and eventually contributes to 2.15mm ground surface precipitation. The maximum of snow content appears just at the s heaviest rainfall moment; precipitation decrease when cloud ice content decreases rapidly, showing the ice-phase particles have important roles in this precipitation process. The maxima of cloud water and cloud ice appear 4 and 2 hours before the heaviest rainfall moment respectively, having certain forecasting significance for precipitation.
In plain areas, the heat release of vapor condensation plays a major role to heating field; in mountain regions, the effect of sensible heat and ice-phase substance latent heat are not negligible. There are two peaks on the vertical profile of Q2, corresponding to the large value centers of water vapor flux convergence. Strong water vapor convergence causes a large amount of water vapor assembles and condenses to release latent heat in low level, forming the Q2 peak under 0℃layer. In this layer, melting snow absorbs great amount of heat, so Q1 is significantly smaller than Q2 in low layer. The other Q2 peak is located at maximum layer of vertical velocity. Water vapor is rapidly uplifted and condenses to heating the atmosphere. Simultaneously, many ice crystals grow up, casing the decrease of water vapor and the increase of heat. The combined effect leads to Q1 is bigger than Q2 in high layer.
The characteristics of heavy rainfall process different from weak rainfall are is as follows:(a) the water vapor convergence is significant bellow 550hPa layer. (b) Cloud ice concentration in the ice crystal layer above 250hPa and mixed layer between 550-250hPa is very high (c) Snow concentration between 550-300hPa layer is relatively high. (d) Liquid cloud water is rich below the 500hPa layer. (e) The apparent moisture is significant in low layer. (f) The heating is notable in mid and high layer, in system matured moment.
According to study for the interaction process between the mesoscale vortex system and severe convective system, we find that, cyclonic and convergent vortex system develops gradually from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere, strengthening vertical upward movement, increasing the amount of water vapor condensation and latent heat release, and uplifting the heating height. All of these are beneficial to the convergence of moisture air in low layer, and then firm the development of convective instability and the strengthening of cyclonic vortex. This positive feedback makes the precipitation process continues, until the height of heating is not conducive to the development of low-level circulation. Then the strong convective system moves away from cyclone system, and precipitation decreases gradually.
引文
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