中国省际人口迁移和区域经济发展研究
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摘要
改革开放以来，我国工业化、城市化和经济现代化发展越来越快。为了培育和建立社会主义市场经济体制，我国逐步放开了严格的户籍管理制度，人口空间分布凝固的状态逐渐得以改变，人口迁移流动的规模逐步扩大。大规模的人口迁移流动，对我国社会、经济、文化等方面产生了巨大的影响。可以说，改革开放是我国人口由计划迁移转向自由迁移的转折点。改革开放以来的三十多年里，我国经济发生了翻天覆地的变化，而且迁移人口这一特殊的社会群体也发生了巨大的变化，人口迁移与区域经济发展之间的关系更加紧密。在市场机制的作用下，区域间的经济发展差距促进了人口迁移，人口迁移不仅推动了地区经济发展，对于有效平抑区域差距进一步扩大起到积极作用。因此，有必要深入研究我国人口迁移的现状和未来发展趋势，为科学的制定相关的政策提供依据，促进人口与经济协调发展。
本文以省际人口迁移为研究对象，根据第六次人口普查数据，首先，比较“五普”和“六普”两段时期我国人口迁移率、迁移规模、迁移人口年龄和性别特征、迁移人口的文化素质水平、职业构成，以及迁移原因的变化，为把握人口迁移的发展趋势打下基础；其次，本文对我国区域经济状况做了总体分析，从而能够在经济发展和人口迁移之间建立联系，为本章接下来研究人口迁移与区域经济发展关系提供依据；第三，以东、中、西区域为研究视角，分析不同区域人口迁移的特点及其与区域经济发展的关系。最后，总结我国人口迁移的主要特征和发展趋势，以及目前人口迁移存在的问题，根据这些问题提出相应的解决办法。
上述研究表明，2000年以来，我国人口迁移规模总体呈迅速扩大的趋势，跨省区的人口迁移规模扩张速度较快；省际迁移人口中未受过教育或受过初等教育的比重呈增大趋势，而高等学历的迁移人口跨省迁移的倾向明显减弱，相反在本省范围内的迁移较活跃；务工经商是省际人口迁移最主要的原因。
同“五普”时期相比，“六普”时期我国人口迁移中心发生了变动。上海成为我国最大的人口迁移中心，而广东和新疆作为“五普”时期的人口迁移中心，其迁移地位大幅下降，其中，新疆已不再是我国的人口迁移中心。在这几大迁移中心中，环渤海经济圈的人口迁移主要是区域内部各省之间近距离的人口迁移，如北京和天津的迁移人口中，较多的是来自于周边的河南省、山东省；而长三角和珠三角对人口的吸引作用较强，迁移人口有很多是来自于距离相对较远的省份，如广东省的迁移人口有很多是来自于较远的四川、河南、重庆、陕西。
从人口迁移与经济发展关系看，迁出人口规模较大的地区一般来说具有人口规模大、农业耕地面积大、工资水平低的特征，迁出人口的文化素质越高，则迁移倾向越大；而人口迁入中心地区一般来说对外开放程度较高、企业数较多、经济规模较大、工资水平较高，且就业机会较多。
从人口迁移对区域经济的影响看。人口迁移对迁入地经济发展贡献最大，除了人口迁移之外，从事第三产业的人口、投资水平和地区总人口对人口迁入地经济影响也较大。因此，推动人口迁入地经济发展最为有效的途径包括：提高人口迁入规模、发展第三产业、加大投资力度和提高城市化进程；然而，人口迁移对迁出地的经济影响不大，而直接投资和从事第二产业的从业人员数则对迁出地经济影响较大。因此，推动人口迁出地经济发展可以从加大投资力度，发展第二产业入手。
从区域经济发展对人口迁移的影响看。地区经济发展的差距对人口迁移影响较大，地区经济落后使人们产生了迁移动机，人们会向那些比较利益更大，经济更发达，收入水平更高，并且还应具有一定社会关系的城市迁移，但是，迁移人口也不得不考虑迁移距离因素，迁移距离越远，迁移的积极性越低。
我国东、中、西区域省际人口迁移的地区分布差异较大。东部地区的总迁入人口主要来自于中部地区，但是，北部沿海的北京和天津的迁移人口更多的来自东部地区，其次才是中部地区；由东部迁入中部地区的人口主要是由迁移人口的回乡流构成的；西部地区各省市的迁入人口则主要是本区域内部之间的流动。
从三大区域的人口迁移与区域经济的关系看，迁入地的经济收入对人口的吸引作用大于迁出地收入水平和经济规模对人口的推排作用，说明人口迁移主要是为了能够获得更高的收入，提高生活水平。其中，迁入东部地区的人口主要是受东部经济收入水平较高的吸引；中部和西部地区的迁入人口主要来自经济较为发达的地区，而且倾向于迁入经济规模较大的省市，而迁出人口主要迁入经济收入水平较高的地区。
从东、中、西区域人口迁移原因看，我国因务工经商而迁移的人口最多，且男性比重高于女性。其中，中部和西部地区因务工经商而迁移的人口的性别比重差距最大，男性远远多于女性。虽然中部和西部地区因务工经商而迁移的比重最高，但与东部地区相比，因家庭因素而迁入的比重也较高，且该类原因的女性迁移人口比重远高于男性。
Since the implementation of reform and opening up policy, urbanization,modernization and economic development become faster and faster. In order toconstruct or cultivate market economic system, our country opened up stricthousehold registration management system gradually, which changed the curdledsituation of directional population distribution, the migration population scaleexpanded rapidly. The large scale of population migration produced profound effect tosocial, economic and culture. It can be say that reform and opening up policy is theturning point of population migration from the planned migration to free one. Aftermore than30years of reform and opening up, not only have the earth-shakingchanges taken place in the domestic economy, but the migration population who is ourcountry’s special social group had great changes. There is a close causal relationshipbetween population migration and regional economic development.Under the marketmechanism, population migration which can produce positive influence of stabilizingthe gap between different areas can be promoted by the regional economicdevelopment gap. Therefore, it is necessary to deeply analyze our country’spopulation migration of present situation and future development trend, in order toscientifically understand migration, provide basis for the establishment of relatedpolicies, so that they can promote the coordinated development of population andeconomy.
This paper is from the view of provincial population migration. First of all, comparingthe data of the fifth census with the sixth census, including migration rate, the scale ofpopulation migration, characteristics of migration population age and gender, thecultural quality level of migration population, occupations, and the causes ofmigration changes, in order to set up foundation for grasping the development trend ofthe population migration. Secondly, this paper makes overall analysis on China'sregional economy, so that they can make the connection between economicdevelopment and population migration, so providing basis for studying the relation between regional economic development and population migration. Third, this articlealso studied the relationship between China's provincial population migration andeconomic development through partial correlation analysis and regression analysis.Finally, from the view of the east, middle and west area, analyzing features aboutpopulation migration among different areas, and the relationship between regionaleconomic development and population migration. At last, summarizing the mainfeature and development trend of population migration, find out some problems, thenput forward some solutions.
The research refered above proved that the overall trend of our country’spopulation migration scale expanded rapidly, and the expanding speed of theinter-provincial migration scale became faster and faster since2000. Inter-provincialmigration population who had not received education or elementary education showedan increasing trend, but the tendency of inter-provincial migratory population whohad received higher education decreased significantly. Oppositely, the behavior ofinner-province migration became more active.
Comparing with "the filth census"data, during "the six census" period the centerof population migration changed. Shanghai became the first center of populationmigration in our country, while Guangdong and Xinjiang which was the centre ofpopulation migrationas during the period of the fifth census, lost their status duringthe six census period, Xinjiang was no longer the center of population migration.Among these migration centers, the mode of population migration in the area of Bohaieconomic circle was mainly close range migration, while people who migrated intoYangtze River Delta area and the Pearl River Delta area that are with stronge radiationeffect, came from ralativly far away provinces.
From the view of the relationship between provincial population migration andeconomic development, the area where there is a large scale of population migrationalso includes these features, such as large population size, large cultivated area, lowlevel of wages. The higher the culture quality of migration, the higher the tendency ofthe people. And centres of population migration include these features, such as higherdegree of opening up to the outside world, more enterprises, larger scale of economy, higher level of wages, and more job opportunities.
Looking from the population migration's influence on the regionaleconomy. Population migration can bring the largest contribution to the economicdevelopment. The second one is people who engaged in the tertiary industry, the totalpopulation and investment scales. Therefore, the most effective way to promoteeconomic development of the immigratiory area including enlarging the scale ofimmigration population, developing tertiary industry, increasing investment andimproving the urbanization process. However, the migratory influence onout-migratory areas is not big, while the impact on economy made by investment andthe second industry population is much bigger.
Based on the analysis on the influence made by regional economic developmentto the population migration, we can get the following results. The populationmigration has obvious impact on the regional economic development. Backward ineconomy made people produce the idea of migration, then people will be apt to moveto get greater comparative advantage, go to more developed areas and higher incomelevel cities where there is certain social relations of urban migration, but people willalso consider migration distance factor when they decide to move, the farther themigration distance, the lower the enthusiasm of migration.
There is widely migratory discrepancy among our country’s estern, central andwestern area. Looking from the regional distribution of population migration, theeastern part migratory population mainly comes from the central region, but muchlarger part of migratory population of the northern part of coastal areas, such asBeijing and Tianjin mainly comes from the eastern region, then central part. Themigratory population of the central part is mainly constructed by the back flows. Thepopulation migration of western area mainly comes from other provinces of itsinternal region.
From the view of the regional relationship between economic development andpoplation migration, the attractive effect to poplation from in-migratory areas is largerthan the pushing effect to population from out-migratory areas. It means the aim tomigrate is to get higher income, and improve the living level. People who migrated into estern part was attracted by the higher income, besides the pushing effect of thelow income of their hometown.People who migrated into central or western area camefrom developed places, and they incline to go to the areas with larger economic scale.
From the point of migratory reasons, the uppermost one is for work or business,moreover the rate of male migration population is higher than the female one. And incentral and western part, people’s moving reasons of work and business has thebiggest sexual discrepancy. Except for the reason of work and business, home reasonis another main reasons for central and western region migration, but the rate of femalmigration population is much larger than male one in central and western region.
本文以省际人口迁移为研究对象，根据第六次人口普查数据，首先，比较“五普”和“六普”两段时期我国人口迁移率、迁移规模、迁移人口年龄和性别特征、迁移人口的文化素质水平、职业构成，以及迁移原因的变化，为把握人口迁移的发展趋势打下基础；其次，本文对我国区域经济状况做了总体分析，从而能够在经济发展和人口迁移之间建立联系，为本章接下来研究人口迁移与区域经济发展关系提供依据；第三，以东、中、西区域为研究视角，分析不同区域人口迁移的特点及其与区域经济发展的关系。最后，总结我国人口迁移的主要特征和发展趋势，以及目前人口迁移存在的问题，根据这些问题提出相应的解决办法。
上述研究表明，2000年以来，我国人口迁移规模总体呈迅速扩大的趋势，跨省区的人口迁移规模扩张速度较快；省际迁移人口中未受过教育或受过初等教育的比重呈增大趋势，而高等学历的迁移人口跨省迁移的倾向明显减弱，相反在本省范围内的迁移较活跃；务工经商是省际人口迁移最主要的原因。
同“五普”时期相比，“六普”时期我国人口迁移中心发生了变动。上海成为我国最大的人口迁移中心，而广东和新疆作为“五普”时期的人口迁移中心，其迁移地位大幅下降，其中，新疆已不再是我国的人口迁移中心。在这几大迁移中心中，环渤海经济圈的人口迁移主要是区域内部各省之间近距离的人口迁移，如北京和天津的迁移人口中，较多的是来自于周边的河南省、山东省；而长三角和珠三角对人口的吸引作用较强，迁移人口有很多是来自于距离相对较远的省份，如广东省的迁移人口有很多是来自于较远的四川、河南、重庆、陕西。
从人口迁移与经济发展关系看，迁出人口规模较大的地区一般来说具有人口规模大、农业耕地面积大、工资水平低的特征，迁出人口的文化素质越高，则迁移倾向越大；而人口迁入中心地区一般来说对外开放程度较高、企业数较多、经济规模较大、工资水平较高，且就业机会较多。
从人口迁移对区域经济的影响看。人口迁移对迁入地经济发展贡献最大，除了人口迁移之外，从事第三产业的人口、投资水平和地区总人口对人口迁入地经济影响也较大。因此，推动人口迁入地经济发展最为有效的途径包括：提高人口迁入规模、发展第三产业、加大投资力度和提高城市化进程；然而，人口迁移对迁出地的经济影响不大，而直接投资和从事第二产业的从业人员数则对迁出地经济影响较大。因此，推动人口迁出地经济发展可以从加大投资力度，发展第二产业入手。
从区域经济发展对人口迁移的影响看。地区经济发展的差距对人口迁移影响较大，地区经济落后使人们产生了迁移动机，人们会向那些比较利益更大，经济更发达，收入水平更高，并且还应具有一定社会关系的城市迁移，但是，迁移人口也不得不考虑迁移距离因素，迁移距离越远，迁移的积极性越低。
我国东、中、西区域省际人口迁移的地区分布差异较大。东部地区的总迁入人口主要来自于中部地区，但是，北部沿海的北京和天津的迁移人口更多的来自东部地区，其次才是中部地区；由东部迁入中部地区的人口主要是由迁移人口的回乡流构成的；西部地区各省市的迁入人口则主要是本区域内部之间的流动。
从三大区域的人口迁移与区域经济的关系看，迁入地的经济收入对人口的吸引作用大于迁出地收入水平和经济规模对人口的推排作用，说明人口迁移主要是为了能够获得更高的收入，提高生活水平。其中，迁入东部地区的人口主要是受东部经济收入水平较高的吸引；中部和西部地区的迁入人口主要来自经济较为发达的地区，而且倾向于迁入经济规模较大的省市，而迁出人口主要迁入经济收入水平较高的地区。
从东、中、西区域人口迁移原因看，我国因务工经商而迁移的人口最多，且男性比重高于女性。其中，中部和西部地区因务工经商而迁移的人口的性别比重差距最大，男性远远多于女性。虽然中部和西部地区因务工经商而迁移的比重最高，但与东部地区相比，因家庭因素而迁入的比重也较高，且该类原因的女性迁移人口比重远高于男性。
Since the implementation of reform and opening up policy, urbanization,modernization and economic development become faster and faster. In order toconstruct or cultivate market economic system, our country opened up stricthousehold registration management system gradually, which changed the curdledsituation of directional population distribution, the migration population scaleexpanded rapidly. The large scale of population migration produced profound effect tosocial, economic and culture. It can be say that reform and opening up policy is theturning point of population migration from the planned migration to free one. Aftermore than30years of reform and opening up, not only have the earth-shakingchanges taken place in the domestic economy, but the migration population who is ourcountry’s special social group had great changes. There is a close causal relationshipbetween population migration and regional economic development.Under the marketmechanism, population migration which can produce positive influence of stabilizingthe gap between different areas can be promoted by the regional economicdevelopment gap. Therefore, it is necessary to deeply analyze our country’spopulation migration of present situation and future development trend, in order toscientifically understand migration, provide basis for the establishment of relatedpolicies, so that they can promote the coordinated development of population andeconomy.
This paper is from the view of provincial population migration. First of all, comparingthe data of the fifth census with the sixth census, including migration rate, the scale ofpopulation migration, characteristics of migration population age and gender, thecultural quality level of migration population, occupations, and the causes ofmigration changes, in order to set up foundation for grasping the development trend ofthe population migration. Secondly, this paper makes overall analysis on China'sregional economy, so that they can make the connection between economicdevelopment and population migration, so providing basis for studying the relation between regional economic development and population migration. Third, this articlealso studied the relationship between China's provincial population migration andeconomic development through partial correlation analysis and regression analysis.Finally, from the view of the east, middle and west area, analyzing features aboutpopulation migration among different areas, and the relationship between regionaleconomic development and population migration. At last, summarizing the mainfeature and development trend of population migration, find out some problems, thenput forward some solutions.
The research refered above proved that the overall trend of our country’spopulation migration scale expanded rapidly, and the expanding speed of theinter-provincial migration scale became faster and faster since2000. Inter-provincialmigration population who had not received education or elementary education showedan increasing trend, but the tendency of inter-provincial migratory population whohad received higher education decreased significantly. Oppositely, the behavior ofinner-province migration became more active.
Comparing with "the filth census"data, during "the six census" period the centerof population migration changed. Shanghai became the first center of populationmigration in our country, while Guangdong and Xinjiang which was the centre ofpopulation migrationas during the period of the fifth census, lost their status duringthe six census period, Xinjiang was no longer the center of population migration.Among these migration centers, the mode of population migration in the area of Bohaieconomic circle was mainly close range migration, while people who migrated intoYangtze River Delta area and the Pearl River Delta area that are with stronge radiationeffect, came from ralativly far away provinces.
From the view of the relationship between provincial population migration andeconomic development, the area where there is a large scale of population migrationalso includes these features, such as large population size, large cultivated area, lowlevel of wages. The higher the culture quality of migration, the higher the tendency ofthe people. And centres of population migration include these features, such as higherdegree of opening up to the outside world, more enterprises, larger scale of economy, higher level of wages, and more job opportunities.
Looking from the population migration's influence on the regionaleconomy. Population migration can bring the largest contribution to the economicdevelopment. The second one is people who engaged in the tertiary industry, the totalpopulation and investment scales. Therefore, the most effective way to promoteeconomic development of the immigratiory area including enlarging the scale ofimmigration population, developing tertiary industry, increasing investment andimproving the urbanization process. However, the migratory influence onout-migratory areas is not big, while the impact on economy made by investment andthe second industry population is much bigger.
Based on the analysis on the influence made by regional economic developmentto the population migration, we can get the following results. The populationmigration has obvious impact on the regional economic development. Backward ineconomy made people produce the idea of migration, then people will be apt to moveto get greater comparative advantage, go to more developed areas and higher incomelevel cities where there is certain social relations of urban migration, but people willalso consider migration distance factor when they decide to move, the farther themigration distance, the lower the enthusiasm of migration.
There is widely migratory discrepancy among our country’s estern, central andwestern area. Looking from the regional distribution of population migration, theeastern part migratory population mainly comes from the central region, but muchlarger part of migratory population of the northern part of coastal areas, such asBeijing and Tianjin mainly comes from the eastern region, then central part. Themigratory population of the central part is mainly constructed by the back flows. Thepopulation migration of western area mainly comes from other provinces of itsinternal region.
From the view of the regional relationship between economic development andpoplation migration, the attractive effect to poplation from in-migratory areas is largerthan the pushing effect to population from out-migratory areas. It means the aim tomigrate is to get higher income, and improve the living level. People who migrated into estern part was attracted by the higher income, besides the pushing effect of thelow income of their hometown.People who migrated into central or western area camefrom developed places, and they incline to go to the areas with larger economic scale.
From the point of migratory reasons, the uppermost one is for work or business,moreover the rate of male migration population is higher than the female one. And incentral and western part, people’s moving reasons of work and business has thebiggest sexual discrepancy. Except for the reason of work and business, home reasonis another main reasons for central and western region migration, but the rate of femalmigration population is much larger than male one in central and western region.
引文
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