电力需求侧管理的技术经济分析及实证研究
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摘要
电力需求侧管理（DSM）是电力管理的一种重要手段，它最早起源于能源消费量居世界首位的美国。20世纪70年代出现的第二次世界能源危机，以及日趋严重的环境保护压力和实现电力可持续发展的要求，使电力需求侧管理备受重视和关注，很快风靡于发达国家和发展中国家，随着DSM在一些国家的实施，收到了很好的效果。最近10年，DSM在我国也得到了广泛的应用，并取得了许多重要成果，产生了一定的社会效益和经济效益。
随着我国经济向市场化和全球化方向快速发展，我国电力工业的经营环境和发展空间也正发生巨大变化，电力工业改革与发展在新的世纪将面临十分严峻的挑战，一方面是电力工业的发展将愈来愈受到资源和环保的制约，另一方面是电力资源的利用率很低，单位国民生产总值的电力消耗很高，宝贵且有效的电力资源浪费极其严重。造成电力供需形势日趋紧张的重要原因是随着国民经济产业结构的调整和电力工业的发展，我国的用电结构发生了很大的变化，突出表现为第三产业用电比重的不断上升，居民生活用电增长迅速，并相应使供电负荷率呈下降趋势，而负荷峰谷差则逐年增大。同时，电网装机的单机容量越来越大，单机发电容量的投资也逐年上升。通过实施电力需求侧管理，对负荷进行移峰填谷，可以提高电网的负荷率，缩小用电峰谷差，改善发供电设备的利用率，降低供电成本，减少或推迟发电装机，并可减轻环境污染，同时可电力用户提高用电效率，降低用电成本，具有相当大的社会和经济效益。正是这些原因，使得对电力需求侧管理的研究成为当前的热点。
本论文的主要研究内容分五个部分，即：对我国电力市场及需求侧管理现状研究、需求侧管理的技术手段及实施、需求侧管理的效益评估、需求侧管理的经济手段分析、实证分析。
① 对我国电力工业可持续发展现状进行了分析，指出实施电力需求侧管理的意义，并提出应重点对居民和商业用户实施需求侧管理。
② 对各类居民及商业用电终端特性予以描述，并对应用于电网削峰填谷，改善供电质量的各种需求侧管理的技术手段及其效益进行分析，并对在需求侧管理技术实施中存在的问题提出了建议。
③ 为解决对DSM实施的效益进行整体和量化的评估，从而使全社会对于电力需求侧管理的效益有更深入的认识的问题，对需求侧管理的整体效益评估方法进行了探讨。
④ 针对我国现行电价制度存在的问题，对适用于电力需求侧管理的峰谷分时电价、实时电价、论质电价等经济手段进行了分析研究。
⑤ 以对A地区实施DSM措施为例，对本论文中DSM技术、经济手段的实施和效益评估等研究内容进行了实证分析
最后，通过上述对电力需求侧管理的研究，本论文提出一些可供电力企业在制定和实施电力需求侧管理措施时参考的策略性建议。
Demand side management (DSM) is a important method of power management. It derives from America which has the biggest consumption of energy in the world. The second world energy crisis in 70's 20th century and the severe pressure of environment protecting and the demand of sustainable development of electricity industry makes DSM being focused. It soon becomes popular in developed country and developing country. There had some good effects after DSM was operated in some countries. In recent years, DSM got extensive application in our country and got a lot of outcomes.
With the fast development of our country's economy becoming marketing and globalization, the marketing environment and the developing room of electricity industry of our country is taking great changes. The reformation and developing of electricity industry will face very rigorous challenger. One is the resource and environment protecting limited the development of electricity industry, the other is the utilization rate of power resource is very low and the power consumption per GDP is very high. The waste of precious power resource is very severe. The important reason that causes the severe situation of power supply and demand is that the structure of power using in our country had taken big changes with the adjustment of country's economy structure and development of electricity industry. It typically expressed by upswing of the third industry's power consumption proportion and fast creasing of people's living power consumption. It also makes power-supply load rate to descend and to increase every year. At the same time, the capacity per generator is becoming more and more larger and invest of capacity per generator is creasing every year. By the application of DSM and load shifting, we can improve load rate of grip, shrink load peak-valley distinction, improve using rate of generating and supply device, cut down cost of power generating, decrease or put off generator installing, and relieve environment pollution, make the power user to improve using rate of power, cut down cost of power using. So it have great social and economy utilization. Because of this, the research on DSM become focus today.
The main research content of this paper have five parts, such as: research on status of power market and DSM in our country at present; technology method and application of DSM; efficiency valuation of DSM; research on economy method of DSM; case study.
① Analyzing status of sustainable development of electricity industry at present, revealing the meaning of application of DSM, and expounding that the emphasis of DSM application is people and business power using.
② Describing peculiarity of some kinds of people and business power end-user, Analyzing all kinds of DSM technology methods that use to load shifting and improve power supply quality, and giving some advises to solve problems in application of DSM.
③ In order to solve how to evaluate efficiency of DSM application all-round and quatitatively so as to make the society to understand the value of DSM, discussing methodology of all-round efficiency valuation of DSM.
④ Aim for the problems of the power price system of our country at present, part-time price and real-time price and price on quality that suitable for DSM.
⑤ Using application of DSM in A district for a case, analyzing application of DSM technology and economy methods and efficiency valuation of DSM that be Analyzed in this paper.
Finally, through the research of DSM above, this paper gives some strategic advises to power enterprises on application of DSM.
随着我国经济向市场化和全球化方向快速发展，我国电力工业的经营环境和发展空间也正发生巨大变化，电力工业改革与发展在新的世纪将面临十分严峻的挑战，一方面是电力工业的发展将愈来愈受到资源和环保的制约，另一方面是电力资源的利用率很低，单位国民生产总值的电力消耗很高，宝贵且有效的电力资源浪费极其严重。造成电力供需形势日趋紧张的重要原因是随着国民经济产业结构的调整和电力工业的发展，我国的用电结构发生了很大的变化，突出表现为第三产业用电比重的不断上升，居民生活用电增长迅速，并相应使供电负荷率呈下降趋势，而负荷峰谷差则逐年增大。同时，电网装机的单机容量越来越大，单机发电容量的投资也逐年上升。通过实施电力需求侧管理，对负荷进行移峰填谷，可以提高电网的负荷率，缩小用电峰谷差，改善发供电设备的利用率，降低供电成本，减少或推迟发电装机，并可减轻环境污染，同时可电力用户提高用电效率，降低用电成本，具有相当大的社会和经济效益。正是这些原因，使得对电力需求侧管理的研究成为当前的热点。
本论文的主要研究内容分五个部分，即：对我国电力市场及需求侧管理现状研究、需求侧管理的技术手段及实施、需求侧管理的效益评估、需求侧管理的经济手段分析、实证分析。
① 对我国电力工业可持续发展现状进行了分析，指出实施电力需求侧管理的意义，并提出应重点对居民和商业用户实施需求侧管理。
② 对各类居民及商业用电终端特性予以描述，并对应用于电网削峰填谷，改善供电质量的各种需求侧管理的技术手段及其效益进行分析，并对在需求侧管理技术实施中存在的问题提出了建议。
③ 为解决对DSM实施的效益进行整体和量化的评估，从而使全社会对于电力需求侧管理的效益有更深入的认识的问题，对需求侧管理的整体效益评估方法进行了探讨。
④ 针对我国现行电价制度存在的问题，对适用于电力需求侧管理的峰谷分时电价、实时电价、论质电价等经济手段进行了分析研究。
⑤ 以对A地区实施DSM措施为例，对本论文中DSM技术、经济手段的实施和效益评估等研究内容进行了实证分析
最后，通过上述对电力需求侧管理的研究，本论文提出一些可供电力企业在制定和实施电力需求侧管理措施时参考的策略性建议。
Demand side management (DSM) is a important method of power management. It derives from America which has the biggest consumption of energy in the world. The second world energy crisis in 70's 20th century and the severe pressure of environment protecting and the demand of sustainable development of electricity industry makes DSM being focused. It soon becomes popular in developed country and developing country. There had some good effects after DSM was operated in some countries. In recent years, DSM got extensive application in our country and got a lot of outcomes.
With the fast development of our country's economy becoming marketing and globalization, the marketing environment and the developing room of electricity industry of our country is taking great changes. The reformation and developing of electricity industry will face very rigorous challenger. One is the resource and environment protecting limited the development of electricity industry, the other is the utilization rate of power resource is very low and the power consumption per GDP is very high. The waste of precious power resource is very severe. The important reason that causes the severe situation of power supply and demand is that the structure of power using in our country had taken big changes with the adjustment of country's economy structure and development of electricity industry. It typically expressed by upswing of the third industry's power consumption proportion and fast creasing of people's living power consumption. It also makes power-supply load rate to descend and to increase every year. At the same time, the capacity per generator is becoming more and more larger and invest of capacity per generator is creasing every year. By the application of DSM and load shifting, we can improve load rate of grip, shrink load peak-valley distinction, improve using rate of generating and supply device, cut down cost of power generating, decrease or put off generator installing, and relieve environment pollution, make the power user to improve using rate of power, cut down cost of power using. So it have great social and economy utilization. Because of this, the research on DSM become focus today.
The main research content of this paper have five parts, such as: research on status of power market and DSM in our country at present; technology method and application of DSM; efficiency valuation of DSM; research on economy method of DSM; case study.
① Analyzing status of sustainable development of electricity industry at present, revealing the meaning of application of DSM, and expounding that the emphasis of DSM application is people and business power using.
② Describing peculiarity of some kinds of people and business power end-user, Analyzing all kinds of DSM technology methods that use to load shifting and improve power supply quality, and giving some advises to solve problems in application of DSM.
③ In order to solve how to evaluate efficiency of DSM application all-round and quatitatively so as to make the society to understand the value of DSM, discussing methodology of all-round efficiency valuation of DSM.
④ Aim for the problems of the power price system of our country at present, part-time price and real-time price and price on quality that suitable for DSM.
⑤ Using application of DSM in A district for a case, analyzing application of DSM technology and economy methods and efficiency valuation of DSM that be Analyzed in this paper.
Finally, through the research of DSM above, this paper gives some strategic advises to power enterprises on application of DSM.
引文
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[3] 国家电力公司.2002中国电力市场分析与研究.中国电力出版社.2002
[4] 杨志荣.劳德荣.何为DSM.电力需求侧管理.1999(1).3-17
[5] Electronic Evaluation of Environmental Impacts.Manina.Asian Development Bank,1996
[6] Kenneth C Nelson. The new world of power marketing. Management Quarterly.1999.8: 78~83
[7] 国家经贸委考察团.美国和加拿大电力需求侧管理考察报告.电力需求侧管理.2002.6.58~60
[8] Chen C S,Leu J T. Interruptible Load Control for Taiwan Power Company [J].IEEE Trans on Power Systems.1990.5(2):460~465
[9] 黄永达.大力开展电力需求侧管理,实现电力可持续发展.电力需求侧管理.2001.4.5~7
[10] 戴谚德.我国可持续发展中的能源问题.电力需求侧管理.2002.10.3~6
[11] 郑积源.跨世纪科技与社会可持续发展[Ｍ].北京.人民出版社.1998.24-34
[12] 俞诗建.浅议电力需求侧管理在我省实施之必要.电力工程.1998(3)
[13] 杨志荣 劳德容.需求方管理（DSM）及其应用.北京.中国电力出版.1999,10,21~53
[14] 姜绍俊.电力负荷特性分析与预测.北京.中国电力出版社.2002.1
[15] Jagdish N Sheth. Marketing productivity: Issues and Analysis. Journal of Business Research. New York. May 2002: 349
[16] 胡兆光.我国经济发展与电力需求趋势分析.中国电力.2000(8).54-57
[17] 王亚欣.电力工业与可持续发展:节约资源和环境保护.世界地理研究.2000.3.87~94
[18] 姚建刚 章 建.电力市场分析.北京.高等教育出版社.1999.88-96
[19] 吴敬儒."十五"后三年电力供需形势将十分严峻.中国电业.2002.11.9~13
[20] 曾 鸣.鼓励电力公司实施DSM的若干政策建议.电力需求侧管理,.2000 (3 ).7-19
[21] 吴永清.电力需求侧管理政策探讨.中国能源.1999(1).24-25
[22] Rinaldy R S. An Efficient Load Model for Analyzing Demand- Side Management Impacts. IEEE Trans on Power Systems, 1993 , 8(3 ):1219～1226
[23] 杨志荣.论我国能源.电力的未来发展.科学对社会的影响.2001.4.25~30
[24] D ouglas J. Buying and Selling Power in Age of Competition.IEEE Power Engineering Review.1994.10(5).12~15
[25] 江辉.彭建春.丁克.需方用电管理的电价策略与效益评估.电力自动化设备.2001.3.29~32
[26] 郏 斌.王秀丽.电力市场电价理论的分析与综述 (1).边际成本电价理论.全国高等学校电力系统及其自动化专业第 15届学术年会论文集.武汉.1999.1202～12 07
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